In anticipation of the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report that will be released on Thursday, Sept. 26, Steiner Consulting Group shared expectations from six analysts polled ahead of the report in the Daily Livestock Report.
In June, USDA offered its first estimate of the pig crop for the March through May quarter, pegging the supply at 34.021 million head, 1.8% higher than a year ago and 4.2% higher than in 2022. Combined with hog weights running 1% to 1.5% above year ago levels, this would suggest weekly pork production up by more than 3% for this period, writes Steiner Consulting Group.
“Clearly analysts are using the March through May pig crop as a guide as the supply of hogs over 180 pounds is expected to be up 1.7% and the supply between 120 to 179 pounds is expected to be up 1.4%. However, last week hog slaughter was 1.6% lower than a year ago and this week it looks like slaughter will be down 1.4% year over year,” Steiner Consulting Group says. “This would put weekly slaughter during the four September weeks just slightly (+0.3%) above last year.”
Analysts point out that it could be the supply numbers turn around in October, or it could be the supply is less than what was initially thought. Market participants should pay close attention to those market hog numbers to figure out what’s coming this fall, they suggest.
Will there be growth this winter?
Analysts expect the pig crop during June through August will be lower than a year ago, the article says. On average, they predict a 0.8% decline and no one has the pig crop above last year. The range on pigs under 50 pounds goes from –1.1% to +1.6%, which does not jive with an estimate for a smaller pig crop, Steiner Consulting Group says. The USDA survey should be a bit more consistent.
Why expect a smaller pig crop this summer?
“Remember the sow herd on June 1 was estimated to be 3.2% smaller than a year ago and a smaller breeding herd means fewer farrowings,” Steiner Consulting Group writes. “Analysts think farrowings will be down 1.8% compared to a 2.5% decline that producers told us to expect back in June.”
Analysts believe pigs per litter will be up 1.1% vs. a year ago. This would imply a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter.
“Last year the quarterly increase was 2.2%, it was 1.2% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2021. So, the number makes sense compared to the last three years. But it is higher than pre‐COVID levels. Pigs per litter increased sharply in 2023 but as the numbers return to trend, growth is no longer enough to offset the lower farrowings. Seems a fair bet that hog numbers will be lower this winter,” Steiner Consulting Group says.
What’s ahead?
The survey will indicate farrowing estimates during September through November (next spring supply) and December through February (next summer).
“Analysts expect only a slight reduction in farrowings this fall despite the breeding herd Sep 1 down 2.4%. Last year, the farrowing rate was quite low, maybe due to those poor margins,” Steiner Consulting Group says. “Analysts think the farrowing rate will return to normal, but breeding herd size remains critical in assessing next spring and summer production potential.”
Your Next Read: How Old Are Your Weaned Pigs Really?
