Crazy and unpredictable are two words Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for RaboResearch, uses to describe the pork industry in 2025.
“Globally, the pork industry is seeing steady declines in the size of the sow herd, and that runs contrary to what we expected,” McCracken says. “If you think about the profitability of the industry, and how much pain we’ve come through in the past few years, the expectation would have been a rebuilding and a stabilization of the industry. It feels like we’re going the other way, and that, in part, reflects the ongoing uncertainty we’ve had in the market.”
The high cost of expansion, global export uncertainty and ongoing disease challenges are likely at the root of delayed growth.
“I think that’s helped the industry weather some of this uncertainty over the past several months and see some better profitability, which is not necessarily a bad thing after all the pain the last few years,” she points out.
Domestic Competition is Undeniable
Beef and chicken continue to be big competitors for the consumer’s dollar. McCracken says consumers are gravitating toward beef despite record high prices.
“We’re looking at tighter beef supplies through at least 2027 and 2028 and obviously that won’t turn around overnight. Short-term trade issues can also impact that supply,” McCracken says. “We rely on imports of grinds to fill in some of those gaps. The real story for beef this year has been the demand side, which has been exceptionally strong. But beef is just part of the story. If you think about where we see some pressure for pork, it’s really from chicken.”
The chicken industry has been building supply. They’ve also seen the nice rebound in margins that the pork industry has seen, she points out. As a result, there’s been a big increase in chicken supplies through the fourth quarter.
“The challenge is that food service continues to struggle with weaker consumer traffic, which has been made worse by inflation, and more recently the government shutdown and big layoffs. And things could get a bit worse in 2026,” McCracken says.
There are some pluses and minuses heading into the end of the year, she adds.
“You’ve got shrinking beef and turkey supplies and higher prices,” McCracken says. “Maybe that’s helping some categories, but at the same time, we’re seeing a lot of chicken out there. It’s a mixed bag when you think about competing protein and the upcoming holidays. I believe there’s some opportunities for the pork industry to win during this holiday season.”
Pork is a central part of holiday celebrations in the U.S., she says. It’s also a good option for many consumers, especially when you think about stretching the food dollar to feed large families.
Global Challenges Persist
“Globally, there are pockets where we’re still seeing some challenges,” McCracken says. “China is a big one. The Chinese swine industry is really struggling. Not only is the market dealing with an oversupply of pork, but the government is forcing the industry to reduce numbers - which will only make things worse in the near term. At the same time the Chinese consumer is struggling and that isn’t getting better. So I don’t think you will see any big improvement in the market until late 2026.”
Meanwhile, Europe is starting to see some stabilization, it’s still facing higher costs as it complies with added regulatory pressure, especially in parts of northern Europe. Disease is also raising costs, as the industry has seen higher death loss and challenging trade constraints,” she says.
She hopes the U.S. can get some traction in new and emerging markets that could come as a result of recent trade deals, along with some improvement with China. The upcoming renewal of USMCA still weighs heavy as a potential risk, especially as U.S. pork relies heavily on the Mexican and Canadian markets for trade and as Brazil continues to gain share.
“There are a lot of things happening globally that can affect us locally. We spend a lot of time watching those markets to make sure the industry stays informed,” McCracken says.
A Reason for Optimism
She says producers are cautiously optimistic thanks to a good supply of feed and (hopefully) a more favorable health outlook heading into 2026.
“They’re obviously seeing a better feed cost outlook, relative to the past few years, helping out a little bit,” McCracken says. “But there are a lot of potential cost pressures as you think about higher construction costs, labor challenges in some areas, and even higher insurance premiums putting pressure on some operations. Then when you add in the trade risk, it creates a bit more uncertainty for 2026.”
She says the outlook for costs over the next 12 to 18 months, unfortunately, likely won’t get much better.
“There are a lot of efforts to build pork demand, not just domestically, but internationally,” McCracken says. “I think those are long-term efforts that don’t necessarily have quick results. Producers are just trying to be mindful of what the market needs, and make sure they’re watching what they can control, managing their risk as much as they can, and watching herd health to make sure their pigs are in good condition.”
It’s a lot for producers to manage. But she believes the key forward is to keep focusing on what you can control – biosecurity.
“On the whole, I’m relatively optimistic,” McCracken says. “I think we’ll have to wait and see what happens with some of these factors that obviously are bigger than us and trying to mitigate that risk.”
