The relationship between the U.S. and Mexican pork industries is facing its most significant test in years. According to Maria Zieba, vice president of government affairs at the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), the Mexican market is unlike any other—and it is currently under threat.
In 2024, exports to Mexico were over $2.6 billion. In addition, Mexico’s geography creates the possibility of land exports, which is a unique export market condition for the U.S. pork industry. Mexico is a major consumer of pork, and the U.S. pork industry has decades-long partnerships with buyers there to satisfy demand for high quality, readily available pork products.
The Allegations: Dumping and Subsidies
The Mexican government accepted two petitions from the Mexican pork industry in December 2025. Mexico then initiated two cases on U.S. pork in December. The first case alleges that the U.S. was dumping product (selling below fair value) during a three-year time period (2022-2024) into Mexico on hams and shoulders specifically.
The second case alleges that the federal government and five state governments (Indiana, North Carolina, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota) gave subsidies to grain producers and pork producers and processors. They claim this created an unfair advantage to the U.S. because producers may have received funds from the federal government and packers may have received some benefits to modernize a packing plant, which went on to lower the price of U.S. pork hams and shoulders exported to Mexico.
“We are compiling all the evidence to show that’s not what happened,” Zieba says. “The Mexican government will receive all of these responses we gather, and from there, they will review the responses and figure out whether there was harm done to their domestic industry on both the cases.”
If Mexico reaches an adverse determination, they could start putting tariffs on U.S. hams and shoulders.
A Bull’s Eye on U.S. Agriculture
It is unfortunate, Zieba says. The U.S.-Mexico market is highly integrated and shares several common interests such as animal health.
“It’s important that we come together and push back on these cases, not only from the industry side, but from the broader context of the U.S. government,” Zieba says. “If we don’t push back, then there’s a possibility that other countries will attempt to do these things not only to our industry, but also to other agricultural industries.”
She says it’s almost natural for foreign trading partners to put a bull’s eye on agriculture because the U.S. does such a great job of exporting.
“It’s certainly important to be on the record that this is not how the U.S. pork industry operates, but we also are not going to let other countries bully us around,” Zieba says.
Together with the U.S. Meat Export Federation, NPPC will be filing an industry petition in response to these allegations. They are working with the exporters listed in the petition, in addition to exporters in general and importers in Mexico, USTR and USDA.
A Complex Situation
It’s been years since the U.S. pork industry has had a trade case filed against it on its exports. She says it’s complex because there are now two cases, many players and political aspects as well.
“Domestic producers across the board in Mexico are the ones that went to the government asking for assistance in curbing the imports,” she adds.
The U.S. and Mexico are experiencing trade tensions, Zieba points out. Essentially, there are many issues geopolitically between the two countries outside of agriculture.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum wanted to have a resolution on the tomato suspension agreement, a separate agreement between the U.S. and Mexico that was terminated in 2025, Zieba says. Sheinbaum had said if it wasn’t resolved, then pork would be on the list to retaliate against. Zieba believes U.S. pork is being used as leverage.
“We are free traders through and through,” she adds. “That is our position and has continued to be our position the last 30 years. The industry believes that to lower all barriers, whether tariff barriers or nontariff barriers to trade, would be trade limiting. Our industry would not be supportive of something like that. It would go against our policy that we’ve had on the books for decades.”
How Does This Compare to Chicken Anti-Dumping?
The pork anti-dumping case is very similar to the poultry case that the Mexicans launched a number of years ago. The Mexican government, the arbitrator in both cases, found fault with U.S. poultry exports, but they never imposed duties.
“You can still export product from the U.S. to Mexico without having to pay that dumping duty,” Zieba says.
They aren’t imposing the duty because it would be negative for Mexico consumers.
“Mexico is dealing with some high food price inflation already, and it is not in the best interest for those consumers to be paying higher prices at the grocery store,” Zieba says. “That’s a pretty big argument for why this is quite silly to be initiating a case on U.S. pork at a time where the Mexican industry and Mexican consumers need a reliable source of U.S. pork.”
Unfortunate Timing with USMCA Review Ahead
With the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) coming up this summer, the timing of these cases is challenging. If Mexico reaches an adverse determination, U.S. producers and/or the U.S. can appeal through the dispute settlement mechanisms of the USMCA and/or the World Trade Organization agreements.
“We have a very collaborative working system where we are highly integrated,” Zieba says. “This pushes against that work we’ve had. If you look at the Canadian, Mexican and U.S. pork industries and our producers, we’ve been growing. Our three industries are a great success because we are integrated. We help each other out, but we also are able to be competitive in the international market and domestically.”
NPPC filed initial comments earlier this month in what is an ongoing process. Pending outcome, Zieba says preliminary duties could be assessed as early as late spring or early summer. The final case will be determined in early 2027, but duties can be implemented in a preliminary phase.
“If the final decision goes against the U.S. pork industry, the worst-case scenario is facing two tariff rates on U.S. pork hams and shoulders as we go into the summer, and those temporary duties assessed,” she says. “We are doing everything we can at NPPC and with USMEF to prevent that from happening. But that’s certainly on the spectrum of possibilities.”
