Yield
From La Niña to El Niño, what does the shifting Pacific mean for your 2026 yields? Atmospheric scientist Matt Reardon leans toward optimism while keeping his eyes on these factors.
The onset of drought and disease are causing growing concerns about the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops this year. Analysts caution while the crops may be going backward in terms of yield, it’s possible USDA actually raises its yield estimates in the September report.
USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.
After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.
With heat forecast to top 100 degrees in places, combined with the expectation for little to no rain, crop conditions could deteriorate and the biggest risk in the western and central Corn Belt.
The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.
USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report, including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations.
Dry conditions spurred by La Nina weighed on areas of the Corn Belt in 2022. As La Nina fades, and El Nino starts to make a return, meteorologists say the weather shift could also signal better crop production in 2023.
According to Secretary Vilsack, these efforts will “increase the competitive advantage of U.S. agriculture both domestically and internationally,” while building wealth in rural America.
Typically the trade sees a 4-bu. corn yield variance in the August WASDE report, reports market analysts from Allendale. The soybean market will be heavily influenced by trade factors.
An alarming increase in global temperatures from Earth’s changing climate could bring an unexpected benefit for U.S. farmers who grow corn, the nation’s biggest crop.
U.S. exports of grain in all forms (GIAF) are on track to set a new record in 2017/2018, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and analysis by the U.S. Grains Council.