Many pork producers are poised to have a very strong second half of the year, experts say. As a lender, Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender with Farm Credit, says he knows the risks are out there, but he’s cautiously optimistic that producers have the potential to drive home a win.
“One thing that we have seen for the first half of 2025 is the ability for many producers to print black ink,” Ford says. “We have shown profits so far in 2025 in many cases.”
According to Iowa State University’s 2025 estimated returns for farrow-to-finish operations through April, each of those months show a profit for 2025 in theory when it comes to the markets, the cost of corn and the cost of pigs, Ford adds.
“All those things have aligned to say, theoretically, there were profits out there to be had,” Ford says. “And a lot of producers did. I wouldn’t say that’s in every case, but the profit potential was definitely there for most producers, at least for the first half.”
What’s the Profitability Outlook?
As the industry comes together at World Pork Expo and looks ahead to the second half of the year, one of the first things on Ford’s mind is the corn market.
“Corn is a significant component of producing animals,” he says. “The corn market is very advantageous to the swine producer right now, sitting at $4 to $4.50. Producers have an opportunity again.”
The lower feed cost environment certainly is advantageous for animal feeders in general, says Brian Earnest, lead economist – animal protein with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division.
“For the pork industry, it seems like that’s helping out that profitability side of it,” Earnest says. “From a feed perspective, the producer should have been able to lock in some pretty favorable feed conditions through the remainder of the year at this point. That should set them up pretty well for the back half of the year.”
But when he looks at the second half of the year, Earnest questions the demand side for pork.
“I’ve used this phrase before, but I think pork could be the darling of the meat case,” Earnest says. “When it comes to the situation we have with higher beef prices and even chicken, and we’re at over 100 lb. per capita annual consumption, consumers may be looking for pork to fill in this middle space in a bigger way.”
He’s optimistic about the new marketing campaign by National Pork Board and says domestic demand has good opportunity into the back half of 2025.
The Key to Lock in Profits
Even with lower feed costs and more domestic demand opportunity, Ford says production is king.
“If pork operations can stay healthy in the second half of 2025 and take advantage of these markets, it’s going to be good for them,” Ford says. “If you look at a 12-month crush, which is essentially taking corn, soybean meal and the price of the animal, and you project forward what you’re seeing for potential profits, It’s somewhere around $20 to $25, as we think about the next 12 months. The opportunities are out there for producers in the second half and even in the first part of 2026 to lock in profits.”
Trade Pressure Remains
External pressures worldwide continue to create obstacles for the U.S. pork producer’s outlook.
“When I think about the challenges outside of leveraging corn and producing a pig, this is a worldwide industry where we rely on exporting 30% of our product,” Ford says. “Anytime you start bringing in other countries, or the political environment, you start talking about tariffs. We saw probably the biggest one-week move in the markets when tariffs were announced. Tariffs were then put on pause, and again, markets recovered a little bit. Ever since then, there’s always been a concern around our friends to the south.”
Exports is a big factor on Ford’s mind. From Europe’s downsizing to Brazil’s uprising, there is a lot of movement when it comes to trade.
“We have to make sure that we continue to have trade partners who are willing to take our pork,” Ford says. “China continues to consume things that we don’t consume here in the United States, so making sure that we find a way to get along with them is key.”
Will Supply Match Up with Market Needs?
Earnest says he has questions around supply as he looks at the second half of the year.
“Is the industry appropriately matching up supply with what the market needs are?” he says. “We haven’t really seen any issues yet year to date, but that could all change. We’re going through somewhat of a conversion phase, with the sow herd decreasing over the last couple years and relying more on the efficiency of the sow herd that we have.”
Of course, the challenges to overcome with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) are ever present. Earnest says it’s always a lingering thought about how disease could tighten up supply and cause a disruption in the industry.
“Technology is doing their best to find ways to navigate through those challenges, through genetic technology or vaccine technology,” Ford adds. “At this point, there just hasn’t been a really good solution around the PRRS side. It continues to be a challenge that the producers are going to have to deal with for a long period of time.”
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