What We Can Learn from the Europeans About African Swine Fever
The appearance of African swine fever (ASF) in Italy and recently on the border of Germany and France illustrates this disease moves in two distinct ways. Carto.com animates the various localities where the disease has appeared and spread, especially throughout Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries.
Usually, the first case or two in an area appear almost from out of nowhere with no discovered disease nearby. From this first flashpoint in a region, the disease will gradually spread out in all directions favoring the movement patterns of both people and wild boars.
Typically, the movement will be along highways, railways and through gaps in forested areas. Mountains tend to hem in the spread and contain it if the area is within a large basin. However, even with mountain barriers, 100 miles away, another incidence suddenly pops up, fully isolated from any other case and then the slow spread around it begins again.
The appearance of ASF in the Piedmont area of Italy, discovered by testing the carcass of a wild boar, is widely believed to have been introduced by humans carrying contaminated pork in one form or another. The area is served by ferries from Corsica and many other ports in the Mediterranean. These ferries are an economical way to move around coastal areas of the European Union (EU) and are often packed with people, many of whom sleep on the floors and chairs (berths are expensive).
Because the food is costly, too, many bring sandwiches and other foodstuffs along with them. Although it is a long car ride from North Macedonia (a contaminated region north of Greece) to the Piedmont area of Italy, you can hop a ferry and be there overnight cheap.
The area is also widely served by trains and air traffic. Despite some regional spreading beginning in the Piedmont, a case was discovered over 300 miles away in a nature park on the outskirts of Rome, illustrating the leap this disease makes. Authorities believe the most likely scenario is the consumption and discarding of contaminated pork as part of a picnic in the park.
Can't Contain People
There is very little doubt the entire EU will succumb to cases of ASF over the next few years. The vectors of the disease, which are effectively blocked by careful biosecurity, will likely hold but the movement of contaminated pork in the carried lunches and picnic baskets of people cannot be contained.
This case near the border of France (a “leap” case from the opposite side of Germany) occurred on an organic farm with only 35 pigs but lots of other fruit and vegetable production. Reportedly, 140 people work on the farm as it favors a low-technology approach with more intensive labor. The farm is reported to be “double fenced,” but the 140 people working there come from all over the EU. The double fence may keep out boars but without restrictions that would violate the human democratic ideals of the EU, preventing humans from spreading the disease is not feasible.
Understand the Spread
We are producing a model of the spread of ASF in the U.S., should it arrive, with an eye to estimating the different economic impact which might occur before containment and eradication if the disease and subsequent spread first entered through Miami, Fla., or Newark, N.J., for instance vs. Oakland, Calif.
Using the extensive European historical data and spread patterns, we hope to gain insight into the unique pathways, natural blocks and accelerated spread corridors within the U.S. geography, building on excellent work already started.
One final observation that seems clear from the European experience that we expect to repeat wherever the disease crops up: when the first case is fully confirmed, it will be clear that it was not the first case but only the first “discovered” or reported and verified case.
As you can imagine, knowing the devastating impact financially on the farm and the pork industry, there may be reluctance to report the first case. Frequently, once a case is finally verified, numerous other cases immediately are confirmed as a thorough surveillance of the area is typically conducted and evidence of previous overlooked or unreported cases become common.
More from Farm Journal's PORK:
2022 Looks Promising if ASF Remains Somebody Else’s Problem
The Global Agricultural Supply Chain: A New Battlefield
The Long-Run Impact of the Great Resignation