Five economists weigh in on the issues most likely to spark attention in the upcoming USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report to be released on June 27.
“We expect continued productivity gains to surprise yet again in the June report. The industry continues to see the benefits of genetic improvement and better herd health, which should again drive the pigs saved number higher yet again. The focus, however, should be on the size of the sow herd – as there are still some in the country questioning whether prior estimates will be revised.” - Christine McCracken, executive director, animal protein at Rabobank
“I think the June Hogs and Pigs Report will continue in the trend of the last few reports. Reductions in breeding inventory will continue to be offset by growth in productivity measures, which will keep pork production growth moving sideways.” - Scott Brown, economist at University of Missouri
“The breeding herd will be the focus in my view. Productivity numbers have stolen the limelight the past 12 months. I expect by fall, pigs per litter growth will return to the long-term trend. The current sow slaughter rate implied further contraction of the breeding herd, setting the stage for lower supplies in 2025 despite higher grain prices. But maybe the June survey will surprise us. Maybe gilt retention blows past expectations. One way or another, I expect the breeding herd to be in the headlines.” - Altin Kalo, head economist at Steiner Consulting Group
“Productivity.” - Erin Borror, vice president of economic analysis at U.S. Meat Export Federation
“Litter rates, but likely not for the reason you may suspect. The last four quarterly U.S. pigs saved per litter estimates were records for their respective quarters and represented year-over-year gains the national numbers haven’t shown before, not including the post porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) rebound. However, I expect a slowing rate of increase going forward. If nothing else, we will be comparing to a high base period a year prior. This does not mean litter rates will decrease. Let’s say the next four quarterly litter rates are 11.47, 11.73, 11.78 and 11.65 for March-May 2024, June-August 2024, September-November 2024 and December 2024-February 2025, respectively. These would all be record pigs saved per litter for their respective quarters but would only represent year-over-year increases of 1.0%, which has been the average since 2000. You may have heard the saying, ‘One’s a dot. Two’s a line. Three’s a trend.’ Only time will tell the new positioning of the trend line on litter rates.” - Lee Schulz, economist at Iowa State University
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