Nearly five years after the beginning of shutdowns and seismic supply issues, the swine industry may, at last, be in a position to deliver broader gains to long-suffering producers — that’s the outlook from industry veterans at Carthage Veterinary Service (CVS) based on analysis of market data.
“According to the USDA, pork production is set to increase by 1.7 percent in 2025,” says Attila Farkas, DVM, partner in CVS. “The forecast for pig prices is favorable for U.S. producers — supply and demand indicate they should have a profitable year because global pork production is expected to slightly decline in 2025.”
Some producers will undoubtedly see this as a sign to expand their herd or invest in new methods or technology.
“The last few years have been all about survival — keeping things moving and tackling the highest-priority tasks,” notes Brianne Skien, CVS general manager. “I think it’s a great time for producers to revisit ideas and projects that they put on the back burner. With the right attention, those could end up making a big difference for their business in the long term.”
But it is wise for even the most enthusiastic investor to maintain a degree of bearishness in 2025.
“Keep in mind that ‘going on offense’ doesn’t mean we shouldn’t execute a risk management strategy that happily accepts singles and doubles when the futures market offers them up,” says Clayton Johnson, DVM, partner. “Have a target for input costs and revenues for each quarter, but don’t get greedy — take opportunities when the board gives them to you.”
Johnson, Farkas and Skien were joined by CVS colleagues to share additional thoughts about 2025, growth strategy for producers and what lessons can be taken from the rear-view mirror of 2024:
Q: What is your 2025 outlook for the industry?
Johnson: This year represents an opportunity to turn the tide on the challenges we faced from 2020 to 2024. With Covid behind us, and having “sharpened our pencil” from the inflationary pressures all businesses faced the last three years, the U.S. swine industry should be optimistic about 2025 and their ability to take a more offensive stance relative to growth and capital investment.
William Hollis, DVM (Partner): There’s a strong demand for piglets and lower costs for feed inputs will help farm operations. However, labor consistency continues to be a concern So, strong leadership on the farm, combined with open and regular communication with Human Resource teams, should bring calm and organization to farms’ staff.
Shaun McGinn (Chief Operating Officer, PSM): The year ahead looks bright, with fewer sows, high demand and tons of opportunities. For CVS’ farm-management arm, PSM, this is our opportunity to grow as well, since pigs are short and we have bench strength.
Q: What are the challenges or obstacles you are watching for in 2025?
Casey Neill (swine nutritionist): With feed cost representing 66 percent of the cost of production, you are always watching out for the unexpected — it could be from a price standpoint, but also, a supply issue. Nutrition and procurement are global concerns. If there are shipping problems on the other side of the globe, that will affect the price and supply of feed ingredients.
Dyneah Classen, DVM (Partner, Director of Health): Watching out for health challenges. Healthy pigs are key to the swine industry’s success — they maintain or improve farm efficiency, decrease medication and treatment costs and improve employee satisfaction and productivity.
Farkas: A potential introduction of foreign animal disease — Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in pigs, an increase in porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) or porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) breaks, to name some. Also, a rise in fixed costs due to increased mortality and disease, and/or inflation, which would decrease profitability.
Skien: Technology is a huge asset. The challenge is making sure we’re investing in the right tech — ones that meet our current needs while also scaling with us in the future. Technology evolves at such a fast pace that something great today could quickly become outdated, or just as we implement one solution, a better option comes on the market. Striking a balance between innovation and being strategic about what we adopt will definitely be key this year.
Johnson: Health and labor remain key to hitting production and profitability goals. We must diligently execute our biosecurity procedures to keep pigs healthy; and we must maintain our improved labor retention rates while continuing to find new recruiting pipelines to staff our farms.
Q: Despite recent setbacks, how do you remain optimistic about the future of the swine industry? What signs of resilience give you confidence for 2025?
Michael Welch, DVM (Research Veterinarian): There have always been times of hardship in our industry — 1998, for example, was really bad for a lot of producers. However, there are typically cycles where profitability comes back.
Classen: People need to eat protein, and pork is one of the most efficient protein sources on the market. I think it has a good reputation, and agencies like National Pork Producers Council and National Pork Board do a good job of promoting pork.
McGinn: Wean pig prices are high, which suggests pigs are short. December futures were good, and summer profits will aid in driving decision-making by ownership groups that have been neglected in past years.
Neill: Independent producers are amazing — they work 365 days a year, tirelessly taking care of their livestock, and have seen almost everything but keep going. Their ability to adapt to challenges, whether it be the weather, market fluctuations or unforeseen health issues, is truly remarkable. It showcases the resilience that is essential in our industry. Producers’ persistence, despite the many obstacles they face, is a testament to their passion for what they do and their vital role in the world.
Skien: The most confidence for the future of the swine industry comes from the people -- from producers who show up every day to care for animals to the vendors providing competitive solutions, to industry allies advocating for us. Their dedication and collaboration across all levels are what continue to drive the industry forward. Even in tough times, I see people leaning on each other, sharing knowledge, and finding ways to adapt and move forward. There’s a strong sense of “we’re in this together,” and that mindset makes this industry so unique.
Q: Are there any lessons you are taking from 2024?
Hollis: Building consistent and repeatable training and education for teams continues to bring value. Not only to us but the industry as a whole. Also, healthy herds continue to be most critical to consistent quality and production schedules.
Farkas: More focus is needed on biosecurity. Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) strains are more aggressive than in previous years. I would advise producers to prioritize and invest in strict biosecurity measures to protect against disease.
McGinn: Our biggest biosecurity measures looked at how to prevent outbreak events. We have focused on dead drops and added technology such as cameras, for added biosecurity.
Johnson: “Disease outbreaks are challenging, but they represent an opportunity to improve if we can learn and grow from the biosecurity investigations.”
Skien: 2024 taught us you’ve got to stay on your toes — the key is being ready to roll with whatever comes your way. When good stuff happens, lean in and take advantage of it; when things get tough, figure out how to pivot and keep moving forward. It’s all about staying flexible, being cautiously optimistic, and finding a way to turn every situation into something you can learn from.
Q: What advice do you have for producers?
Neill: Continue to ask for advice and additional help. CVS has many departments with a wealth of expertise that can assist you with any issue or project. Don’t hesitate to reach out to colleagues across different teams; collaboration and shared insights often lead to the best solutions.
Hollis: We can help identify opportunities for operational improvement in health, training and data analysis. Even if you don’t know where you may need assistance, we are here to help with that process. Be willing to pivot and continue to grow. The industry is constantly evolving, and we can’t take the backseat and watch it shift without us.
Skien: Build a strong network, connect with others in the industry and don’t be afraid to ask questions. There’s so much knowledge and experience out there, and tapping into it can save you time, money and frustration. You don’t have to reinvent the wheel every time you face a challenge!
Farkas: Prioritize and invest in strict biosecurity measures, constantly monitor market trends, have a consistent risk management plan and consider strategies to differentiate pork products in the market.
Johnson: The fact our clients are still in business after such a tough five-year gauntlet speaks volumes about the resilience of our industry’s business models. They should take great pride in sustaining their operations and be optimistic about their chances for profitability in 2025. I love the saying, “Be an optimist — the world has enough pessimists already!”
Your Next Read: 4 Things We Learned In 2024 to Be Better Pig Farmers in 2025
