Weather

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:38 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:51 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:25 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:40 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

Anything That Can Go Wrong, Will Go Wrong in the Winter

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 18:29:02 GMT

Winter weather requires constant vigilance to maintain pig health and barn infrastructure. After all, Murphy’s Law that “anything that can go wrong, will go wrong,” is almost always true in the dead of winter.

“During the first real cold of the year, there is always a heater that doesn’t kick on or a water line that freezes up,” said Adam Annegers, sow production manager at JBS, during the recent State of the Pork Industry Report . “Things just happen during that first cold snap.”

Freezing Failures

For Randy Kuker, director of swine production for The Equity, the biggest challenge his team faced during the recent snowstorm occurred on an empty site as it started to fill with pigs.

“You try to take all the precautions and do the right things,” Kuker says. “We were starting up a feed line that had some frozen ice in it, then the PVC snapped. Now we had to try to repair a PVC line in the cold temperatures – that’s not fun.”

When the snow starts to fall, Kuker encourages producers to make sure they clear snow away from tunnel curtains to prevent gaps and check pit fans for drifts to ensure proper airflow. Additionally, monitoring snow load on roofs is essential to prevent structural collapse.

(National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff)

“Winter brings a lot of challenges and keeps you on your toes, and that’s just outside the barn,” Kuker says. “That doesn’t even take into account inside the barn.”

Production Priorities

Inside the barn, ventilation is key to managing humidity and preventing disease, he says. Producers should monitor probe temperatures to ensure they are not in front of inlets, which causes heaters to run longer than necessary. Minimum fan speeds must be set correctly to balance heat retention with air quality.

Ventilation, feed and water quality are important every day to keep pigs performing well, emphasizes Brad Eckberg, account executive at MTech Systems.

To maximize profits, consider increasing breed targets by 5% to 10% during the fourth quarter to ensure full-crate utilization for high-value summer markets, Eckberg adds. Focus on body condition and parity distribution to maintain high farrowing rates.

Stress and Survival

Eckberg reminds producers that cold stress is a potential trigger for disease. During transport, cold stress increases mortality. What can producers do to protect pigs from cold stress during transport?

Start by making sure that trailers have adequate bedding and closed sides.

“We need to make sure that we’ve got the sides closed up enough that the route is safe,” says Cara Haden, DVM, director of animal welfare and biosecurity with Pipestone. “We need to make sure we’re not going to get stuck en route, that we’re moving loads if we need to off of these days that are so cold, or where there’s a chance that we’re going to get stuck in a snowstorm and not make it to the barn.”

Cold stress creates significant implications.

“If pigs get cold stress and then things like drafting or heater issues arise, that can trigger more issues,” Haden says. “If you get the pigs to the barn and your heater goes out for a couple hours in this type of cold, we need to make sure we’re responding quickly, because that can impact the health of a pig, too.”

“If pigs get cold stress and then things like drafting or heater issues arise, that can trigger more issues.”

Cara Haden, DVM

What’s Your Backup Plan?

She says it’s also important to note Scott Dee’s snowball experiment proved that porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) love blowing snow.

“They can move in blowing snow. They can move on vehicles that are covered in snow,” Haden says. “This time of year, we need to be super diligent.”

But ice makes diligence more challenging, she adds.

“When we go to disinfect a chute, trailer or a truck, disinfectants need to dry in order to function appropriately,” Haden says. “We need to make sure we’re either getting those in a warm enough environment that we can dry, that we’re adding propylene glycol along with our disinfectants, and ultimately are getting things as clean as they need to be.”

Create a backup plan, she advises.

“If your lines freeze and you’re supposed to be disinfecting a chute or a trailer, what will you do?” Haden asks. “There are products like ChloroSorb, which is a dry powder that we can use. We’ve got to have those plans in place so that we don’t end up having dirty trucks or dirty trailers going down the road because of some sort of freezing issue.”

Watch or listen to their entire discussion that delves into the impact of winter on your operation, wean pig health and nutrition tips, and conversations taking place at trade shows and more in the Farm Journal’s PORK State of the Pork Industry Report .

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:41:53 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Meteorologists Say to Prepare For An Active December

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 14:57:27 GMT

For those in the Midwest, a low pressure system arrived Tuesday night bringing strong winds — a wide area of wind advisories — and for some winter precipitation.

“Wisconsin is having an amazing snow event today,” says Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist for Nutrien, in his latest YouTube update. “There’s a blizzard warning in northern Wisconsin.”

Are there more rounds of snow coming and will it be widespread?
While Snodgrass says for most, Thanksgiving Day itself will be quiet-weather-wise, the day after brings increased interest for travel-effecting weather, especially for those east of the Rocky Mountains.

“There will be 10°F to 20°F temp drops through the northern Plains to the Gulf coast,” Snodgrass says. “Snow is more probably because of the cold temperatures — the transition line between rain and snow on Saturday night — we don’t know. It’s going to be a fine line.”

He points to parts of Missouri, Illinois, most of Iowa, Minnesota and all of Wisconsin and Michigan to see some snow. With Wisconsin and Michigan seeing models indicating snow totals from 1’ to 2’. There will be better precipitation chances for the southeast in the form of rain.

The precipitation event forecast comes with greater confidence heading into the holiday weekend.

“I was happy to see the models align this morning,” Snodgrass says.

Eric Snodgrass highlights the latest ECMWF Ensemble forecast for getting at least 3" and 6" of snow through Thanksgiving weekend.

(AgWx.com)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes some will see extreme cold for the first time this winter.

“Look for our first outbreak of sub-zero temperatures of the 25/26 winter season,” Rippey says. “And by Monday morning, December 1, those sub-zero temperatures will encompass large parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.”

And then early next week, there’s another system moving from the Mississippi delta through the southeast to bring additional rainfall totals.

Some areas that will remain dry through early December include the Canadian prairies, California and the southwest.

The First of Many
“It’s the post-Thanksgiving period that I’m most concerned about. We will be looking at a series of storms moving out of the northwest and eventually reaching the nation’s midsection,” Rippey says. “If you’re going to wait a little bit for heading home after the holiday, do look for some potential for very disruptive weather late Sunday into Monday, eventually reaching airports like Denver and spreading toward Chicago as we head into the first day of December.”

Rippey adds as we head into the winter months it’s reasonable to expect it to be colder and much more stormy across a vast swath of the country.

Heads Up: Space Weather Could Disrupt GPS Signal This Week

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 15:41:46 GMT

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration has updated its expected arrival of a G4 severe geomagnetic storm. Initially expected to be observed June 2 to June 3, it’s now potentially ending earlier by June 2.

These space weather events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field and at this severe level cause “more frequent and longer periods of GPS degradation.”

“If you’re finished planting, have no spraying to do, or otherwise too wet to get into the field, this solar storm may not matter for production agriculture even for the most susceptible states,” says Terry Griffin with Kansas State University. “Given the time of year, several hundred thousand acres of peanuts are left to be planted in Georgia (74% planting progress as of last week). Without RTK (not just GPS but sub-inch accuracy RTK), a 11% yield penalty is known at planting due to uncertainty of AB line when digging, the topic of my current research. In Kansas, corn was 85% planted as of last week and most crops have been planted on schedule or ahead of the 5-year average, but spraying and other midseason operations are still vulnerable.”

He adds Kansas winter wheat harvest usually begins mid-June so it won’t be affected by this storm.

Are these events normal?

Griffin says accurately predicting solar storms is more difficult than terrestrial weather.
“One analogy is to think of predicting geomagnetic disturbances on Earth as compared to the familiar tornado season. We know that in Kansas every April and May we can expect tornadoes in our area; when we may have a tornado watch, sometimes a tornado warning, and less common for an individual homeowner to be directly affected by a tornado,” he says. “Geomagnetic disturbances are similar: every 11 years we should expect a variety of “watches” and “alerts” due to increased solar activity before quieting down for about the next seven years until activity ramps up again.”

However space weather brings an even greater level of uncertainty for what the precise impacts on Earth will be. Just because there’s activity measured from the sun, it doesn’t always arrive at Earth in a predictable pattern.

“Activity on the sun does not always arrive at the Earth, observed coronal mass ejections (CME) can go in the opposite direction or even be a “near miss”, just like a tornado,” he says. “Instruments can detect CMEs several minutes after they occur, and even when material is coming toward the Earth it may take a few days before we know if we’re being affected.”

What can farmers do?

“GNSS outages caused by solar storms should be expected to be the norm, at least during solar sunspot number maximums that occur about every 11 years,” Griffin says. “At the very least, farmers should expect GNSS outages associated with solar storms during sunspot maximum; spanning maybe three years of the 11 year cycle.”

Griffin says solar storms can occur any time of year, and he points to some historical evidence suggesting increased frequency of geomagnetic disturbances near the spring and fall equinoxes.

Farm Journal reached out to Griffin first thing Monday morning for an update. He said the solar storm “arrived a day early...it was moving really fast” and would likely be over by Monday afternoon. He did not hear from any farmers about GPS outages or issues with satellite lock on their farm equipment as of Monday morning.

NOAA did record a G4 level solar event in space occurring on Sunday, June 1, however, by Monday morning at 8:45 am EST it had weakened to a G1.

Griffin says farmers should check the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center hompage (www.swpc.noaa.gov) on a regular basis this summer before heading out to spray or do other field work.

“That May 10th event (last year) was not a once in a lifetime event,” Griffin warns. “We need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

The “next one” could happen anytime in the next 12 months, or not at all, he believes. Griffin says we’re in the middle of what some scientists call the “battle zone” of solar activity and the current conditions are expected to last for the next year. Once we get to next summer, Griffin says, scientists are projecting a “quiet period” for the next six or seven years before space weather and solar storms start to ramp back up in the early 2030s.

“The previous solar cycle we were in was really quiet, and the one we’re in right now is normal,” he says. “We need to be ready for these events.”

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:07:28 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:18:59 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 17:41:56 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told livestock producers and farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City last week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The current weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released last Thursday (Feb. 20) says drought is impacting 34% of the beef cattle inventory area, 27% of the dairy area and 49% of U.S. alfalfa hay production acres.

Current conditions are dry in many of the regions where beef and dairy are produced.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions

Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture livestock producers and farmers need for U.S. grain and livestock production.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the West, Southwest and Midwest before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for livestock producers and farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [in western states] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. She could change course and bring moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the East and Southeast. Much of those regions have had an over-abundance of moisture recently. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to continue having plenty of moisture going into spring.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer

If current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 spring and summer.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought

If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Midwest and West. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most beef and dairy producers understandably won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told producers and farmers, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Brrr, It’s Cold Out There: What That Means for Your Pigs

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 11:00:00 GMT

January’s multi-day cold spell featuring sub-zero temperatures and wind chills as low as -35 degrees Fahrenheit impacted everyone, even pigs inside climate-controlled barns. With a new round of storms coming in this week spreading snow and ice throughout many parts of the country, producers are bracing themselves for freezing temperatures again.

During the latest State of the Pork Industry Report , experts discussed the impact of cold weather and what can be done to help mitigate those challenges.

Farrowing Rooms in Cold Temperatures
When it comes to the sow farm, Adam Annegers, sow production manager at JBS, is quick to point out that not every farm is a new farm.

“A big thing we have to remember, especially through the cold weather, is that any crack in a wall or a door or an inlet – anywhere air can get in – is considered part of the ventilation,” Annegers says. “You can move your inlets and adjust your inlets and set points and probes, but you really just need to step back and look at the whole room and consider if you can seal or cover any cracks or crevices.”

He says you have to set your ventilation for the coldest part of the day, which is typically at night when nobody’s in the barn. That’s why slowing down and not being in such a big hurry is key. Look at each farrowing room each time to ensure everything is perfectly ready to go to help ventilate little pigs.

“As you know, it was 101 degrees when those 3-lb. baby pigs were born. We try to keep the rooms 74 to 76 degrees, but that’s still a 25 to 30 degree drop in temperature just being born. Making sure we have the rooms properly ventilated and prepared for the cold parts of the day takes extra time but is worth the slow down.”

Minimize Stress
“We can’t underestimate how serious cold stress can be, especially at the time of weaning,” says Pipestone veterinarian Cara Haden. “Think about all of the stress we put these pigs through at weaning. We’re taking them off Mom. We’re moving them to a different location. They’re going into a truck for the first time. We’re putting them on solid food for the first time. We’re mixing them with non-littermates in large groups for the first time. That’s a lot of stress at once. I can’t understate how much cold stress can add to that.”

During a recent trip to The Netherlands, Haden shared a story about a veterinarian who talked heating trailers and keeping pigs warm during transport, just to keep that one piece of stress down. That led Haden to many more conversations, placing temperature probes in some trailers and holding more training for truckers to better understand the importance of keeping wean pigs comfortable during transport so they can have a good start in the nursery.

A Warm Welcome
When it comes time to move wean pigs to the nursery, Randy Kuker, director of swine production for The Equity, says nursery barns are typically more buttoned up, but depending on the age, it’s still important to look for cracks and crevices where cold air can get in.

“We put plastic on our end wall fans. When we fill during cold temperatures, we’ll adjust the fill plan based off of how many pigs we’re getting. We might overstock a room for a little while to maintain the heat in there better before we move them to the next room,” Kuker says.

During the -5-degree temperatures last week, some of their farms got in new pigs. That required a little creativity, he adds.

“We could either turn off one of the pit fans outside, so we were running two instead of three on that minimal stage. We also could set it up through certain controllers where we ran the pit fans on a variable timer so they would run for five minutes,” Kuker says. “They’d be off for two or three minutes and then come back on, trying to maintain some heat in the room. We now install clips on our inlets so we can actually shut some of the inlets up, because as facilities age, more air enters the building than it did when it was originally built.”

One way they work to get pigs off to a better start is to make sure the building is warmed up the day before pigs arrive so they get a proper welcome, he adds.

“When those pigs get off that truck, you don’t want them laying on cold concrete waiting for that barn to heat up. You want them to be as comfortable as possible so they can spend their time figuring out where the feed and water are, not huddling in a corner on top of each other.”

Look for the Low-Hanging Fruit
Continuing the transportation discussion, Bradley Eckberg, account executive at MTech Systems, encourages producers to consider transportation losses from the finisher to the packer.

“An average transportation loss is going to be somewhere between a quarter percent to three quarter percent. Let’s say, at a half percent on a 2,400 head finisher, that’s 12 pigs. At $180 a head, that’s $2,160. For a quarter million pigs, 2,400 group sizes, that makes 104 groups sent to market. If each group loses a half percent, or $2,160, that’s almost a quarter million dollars in lost revenue.”

Are those pigs getting stressed because that cold air is hitting them right there in the face? Transportation loss is something people don’t think about on a daily basis.

“But you should think about it,” Eckberg says. “Transportation loss is low-hanging fruit. Consider where yours is today compared to the industry average. How can you get better from a lighting, floor and ventilation standpoint?”

Watch or listen to their entire discussion ranging from PRRS and labor turnover to third-party Prop 12 audits and influenza on YouTube . These experts share their perspective on what’s been happening on farms in Q4 2024 and takeaways for producers to consider in 2025.

Your Next Read: 4 Things We Learned In 2024 to Be Better Pig Farmers in 2025

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 15:02:27 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

Your next read: With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 19:25:59 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

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Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 20:24:17 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:58 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

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More Wind, Rain and Hail Likely Ahead in June

Wed, 29 May 2024 20:14:22 GMT

The long line of severe storms that swept across the Midwest on Friday – from parts of Nebraska, through Iowa and into Illinois – has been officially classified a derecho by the Storm Prediction Center.

The Center classifies derechos as a wind damage swath that “extends more than 240 miles and has wind gusts of at least 58 mph or greater along most of the length of the storm’s path.”

It signaled the start of what became a severe weather weekend and a 2024 Memorial Day, with dozens of reports of strong winds, rain or hail hitting many parts of the U.S.

“We have obviously seen an absolutely, astronomically high number of severe weather reports over the last month,” says Michael Clark, chief meteorologist for BAMWX.com.

Clark says during May alone, there have been 469 tornadoes, 3,475 severe wind events and 1,640 severe hail events in the U.S. The number of storms reported is one of the highest for the month of May, if not the highest, since 2011. See You Can Now Blame El Niño and La Niña For the Extreme Weather Outbreaks, Planting Delays This Spring

“I’m looking at the map right now, and it’s almost as if every state east of the Rockies has reported a tornado during the month somewhere,” he says. “It’s kind of hard to wrap your head around how much there’s been.”

A Tough Transition Is Underway
While the number of storms this month has been unusually high, their occurrence has been expected meteorologists say, as the country transitions away from an El Niño into a La Niña.

“In spring, whenever you see these transitions, severe weather is amplified quite a bit,” Clark says.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, there is a 49% chance La Niña develops between June and August, and a 69% likelihood it will be in place sometime between July and September.

Clark and his meteorologist colleague Bret Walts told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory that they are predicting La Niña will be in place sooner than later – likely by July.

“I think that the atmosphere has already been trying to respond to that,” Walts says. “We’ve certainly seen it with this severe weather.”

More Rough Weather Ahead This Summer
Walts believes high winds and big rainstorms will continue throughout late spring and into the summer months. See Iowa Crews Search For Survivors After Deadly Tornadoes

“I’m concerned that as the heat ramps up later on into June and July that we could get more of these derechos going through,” Walts says.

In addition, Walts and Clark are concerned significant heat domes will occur over the Corn Belt and rain events will slow significantly as the second half of the growing season gets underway. See Expect a Hotter Than Normal Summer This Year

“When La Niña sets in, I am under the impression that in the later part of the growing season the moisture will be potentially shutting off,” Clark says. “This happens in big hurricane seasons where that ridge of heat sets up over the northern U.S., over the Great Lakes. It steers hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico, but it shuts off precipitation in the Corn Belt.

“That’s a concern I have this year,” Clark adds. “These very wet springs with a lot of moisture going into La Niñas historically don’t really turn out to be very friendly the second half of summer.”

The complete weather conversation is available on AgriTalk here:

How Will Winter Storms Impact the Pork and Beef Supply Chain?

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:33:34 GMT

Winter storms across the country have resulted in significant pork and beef supply disruptions in terms of livestock moving to processing plants as well as beef and pork moving to population centers, Steiner Consulting reports in its latest Daily Livestock Report.

“The impact from such events is difficult to discern as they are happening, it impacts both the supply side of things but it is also important to consider the potential demand effects down the road,” says Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting.

Hog Market
Hog slaughter in the first three days of the week ending Jan. 12 was about 9% below expectations. Kalo notes that pork cutout during this period traded largely sideways, but there is a lot of volatility in the value of specific primals and trim. On Jan. 10, the cutout saw an uptick in the afternoon, rising close to $87/cwt but Kalo says it’s likely to pull back by the end of the week as supply recovers.

“Probably the most significant increase in pork has been for bellies and trim,” he says. “On Jan. 10, the value of the belly primal was 17% higher than the previous week while gains for other primals were somewhat more muted. This underscores, once again, what we see as critical for the pork market going forward ‐ bellies hold the key, especially in the spring and summer months.”

As for futures, Kalo points out that fed cattle have traded sideways, in part because of the implications of reduced marketings at a time when front end supply (cattle ready for marketings) remains heavy.

“The higher cutout does not help cattle as much as it does hogs, which are pricing in part based on cutout. Yes, a higher beef cutout helps improve packer margins, but as last year showed, the most significant important bargaining tool for feedlots is a current supply,” Kalo says.

Cattle Market
According to USDA, cattle slaughter during the first three days of the week was 282,000 head, for a daily average of 94,000 head. In December, total cattle slaughter during the week day averaged around 124,000 head/day.

“Most of the impact was in fed cattle processing as the plants idled by the extreme weather process fed cattle. Average fed
cattle slaughter in the first three days of the week was 69,000 head/day compared to 98‐99,000 head per day routinely processed in December,” Kalo says.

How does this shortfall impact the market?

“In the near term, the disruption limits spot availability, especially for items that see robust sales during this time of year, such as ground beef and end cuts,” Kalo says.

On Jan. 10, the choice beef cutout was quoted at $283.07, $5 higher or 2% higher than the previous week and it’s expected to continue to move higher through the end of the week. Meanwhile, the chuck primal in the past week has gained 5.4% and the round primal was up 4.9%. Ground beef prices and beef trim values have been higher as well, Kalo notes. Fat beef trim tends to have a very inelastic demand in the near term, with a broad base of fresh users and a significant supply contracted.

“When daily production drops below a certain level (down 40% in the first three days of the week), it can result in significant upward pressure. Last week the average of 50CL boneless beef averaged around 55 cents a pound. On Wednesday afternoon the price had jumped by 35% and it may see even more upside in the next few days. With fat trim accounting for about 10% of the carcass, the jump in fat trim credit values is especially significant,” he explains.

Read the Daily Livestock Report here.

Winter Weather: Find Out What's in Store for Agriculture

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 18:52:06 GMT

The upcoming winter is shaping up to look a bit different than the past several years. The shift to a different weather pattern, El Nino, is in the works – resulting in a very strong subtropical jet stream and a weakened polar jet stream.

Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, shares the predictable changes to North American weather those involved in the agriculture industry should be on the lookout for.

Northern Weather Will Be Drier
One of the common changes Rippey shares is unusually mild weather across the northern tier of the U.S. The mild weather is a result of the weak polar jet stream and affects areas stretching all the way from the Pacific Northwest to New England.

“That of course has implications for winter crops,” Rippey says. You don’t get as much establishment of a snow cover, but at the same time, you don’t have a whole lot of cold weather to deal with and there’s less concern for winter kill. So, it’s kind of a tradeoff there.”

(Farm Journal)

Along with the milder temperatures, northern states are also predicted to see drier conditions this winter.

An outlook published by NOAA in late September shows between a 33 to 50% chance of below average precipitation for a portion of the northern U.S between November and March. The areas NOAA expects the largest impact are the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region.

(Farm Journal)

The dry, warm conditions have the potential to make this planting season an early one.

“It all depends on how the snow falls, but generally speaking, soil temperatures will likely not be as cold as they were in the spring of 2023,” Rippey says. “Given the mild, dry forecast, there may be a fairly quick planting season in the north for spring 2024.”

The Story for Southern States is Much Different
“The enhanced subtropical jet stream tends to bring stronger storms across the southern tier of the United States,” Rippey says. “Sometimes that affects Southern California but it’s more likely along the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic coast.”

NOAA’s predication maps show the highest probability of above average rainfall – 50 to 60% – for states along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.

The increased precipitation in those areas is something Rippey says could help with low water levels from the summer’s drought.

“As we get deeper into autumn and the heart of winter, the odds most definitely increase we will see wetter conditions in places like Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi where we’ve got not only low water levels impacting navigation, but also the saltwater intrusion from the Gulf,” he says. “It may take a while but eventually as the winter proceeds, we should see relief especially in the southern part of the basin.”

The Wild Card to Watch For
A less clear aspect for this winter’s forecast could be due to elevated oceanic temperatures, which have the potential to keep global temperatures high through the winter and into 2024.

The high oceanic temperatures produce blocking high pressure systems, which Rippey says can be blamed for Canada’s wildfire season and recent heat waves and fires in Europe.

“If some of the oceanic temperatures continue to induce weird blocking patterns, that can lead to extremes like heat, cold, droughts and floods that’s generally independent from El Nino,” he says.

Effects on South American Production
El Nino has different implications for growers in South America.

Key production agriculture areas such as southern Brazil and Argentina are just moving into their spring growing season and the El Nino weather patterns are expected to create more favorable conditions for their crops than La Nina.

“From a crop production standpoint, I would expect improving conditions in some of the areas that have been impacted by drought over the last few years,” Rippey says. “As you move northward into the Amazon basin, El Nino can trigger drought. That’s a concern from an ecological standpoint and that drought often extends into places like Mexico and the Caribbean for as long as El Nino persists.”

What an El Niño Event Could Mean for Fall Weather

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 18:39:20 GMT

So far, 2023 has been a wild year for weather. Flooding, drought and hail have all made their way into the headlines - not to mention the extreme high and low temperatures seen throughout the seasons.

While weather patterns have been anything but predictable this year, Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says America’s heartland may start to see wetter weather conditions just in time for fall.

“Unlike a year ago, we are not expecting a fall drought in the Midwest,” Snodgrass said during a recent Professional Dairy Producers Dairy Signal webinar. “Some of the best models in the world suggest that September, October and November could be wet in the upper Midwest.”

Back in early June, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño advisory, noting that El Niño conditions were present and would likely strengthen into the fall and winter months.

El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is usually weak during the summer months and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring. According to the agency, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter typically result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Niño winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.

Currently, both European and American models indicate there may be abnormal dryness in the Northwest and mildly wetter conditions in the Midwest and Southeast portions of the U.S.

Snodgrass says El Niño supports this correlation, adding that when you look at all the years when an El Niño event has been building, the U.S. is likely to experience more rain in the midsection of the country during fall.

Good News for the Mississippi

Wetter-than-normal weather conditions brewing in America’s heartland could also bring positive news for the Mississippi River, which plays a crucial role in transporting more than 45% of U.S. ag exports. Since June, water in the river has been decreasing, leading to restrictions on the amount of grain that can be carried on each barge. In turn, this has caused barge rates to surge.

Snodgrass notes that the river’s depth is starting to come back up, which is good news for barge traffic. However, hurricane season could throw a wrench in this positive outlook.

“The wildcard for the Mississippi going forward is where we currently sit in our hurricane season,” Snodgrass says. “We still have better than 80% of our hurricane season still to go. Right now, in the Gulf of Mexico, ocean temperatures are above 91°F with some pockets reaching 98°F. This is a breeding ground for tropical systems. And we are just on the edge of the tropical season.”

Temperature Outlook

During an El Niño year, cooler than normal temperatures can be expected in the fall, but don’t typically set in until October, according to Snodgrass. This means it’s unlikely that the upper Midwest will see frost in September.

“Could there be a risk of having an on-time or even earlier frost? Yeah – there could be. But it’s not going to be in September based upon what I’ve got right now,” Snodgrass says. “I think September is going to have another couple episodes of warmth rather than drop into cold [temperatures] very quickly.”

However, NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook indicates thermometers may be higher than normal for most of the U.S.

(Farm Journal)

According to Snodgrass, El Niño winters tend to ruin the temperature gradient across the country. They tend to make the northern part of the U.S., which is typically cold, less cold. Additionally, they tend to make the southern part of the country, which is typically warm, less warm.

“We see a cooler than average south and a warmer than average north in every December through February timeframe during El Niño. And that’s what I’m expecting this particular year to be.”

A Flip of the Coin

At the end of the day, only Mother Nature knows what the weather will look like for the remainder of the year. However, Snodgrass and NOAA meteorologists believe more precipitation will likely be seen for most of the country throughout the fall and early winter months.

“The outlook for October, November and December indicates the upper Northwest will likely be dry with much of the rest of the country being wet,” Snodgrass says. “Looking further out into December, January and February, we worry about the Northwest continuing to be dry and California being wet. States in the southern part of the U.S. will also likely be wet.”

Forecasters also predict temperatures will likely remain elevated throughout September before cooling off in October. States in the central part of the country may stick to their normal fall-like temperature patterns while the rest of the country may experience warmer weather. However, Snodgrass predicts cooler than normal temperatures may make their way to the Southern states come winter.

Currently, meteorologists predict El Niño will stick around for the rest of 2023 and the early months of 2024.

For more on weather, read:

What Would a Neutral Weather Pattern Mean for Harvest?

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 20:41:55 GMT

Wild weather hit the Midwest like a brick wall on Tuesday, with the National Weather Service categorizing the storm cell as a derecho due to the reported 90-plus mph winds.

The Midwest is no stranger to this weather phenomenon, as the past two years have produced a derecho at least once per year —a trend that could continue with back-to-back weather patterns, according to meteorologists.

Drought Monitor Summary

The U.S. is currently experiencing a La Niña weather pattern , according to Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub director. He says this pattern has occurred the past two years, with a third year on the horizon.

La Niña generally brings drought conditions, which the U.S. has experienced throughout 2022. As of Tuesday, the U.S. Drought Monitor update from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) shows current conditions are shifting across the board.

(Farm Journal)

UNL says heavy rains across the nation may have eased the drought conditions in the short-term, but they won’t be enough for the long run.

Here’s a rundown of the U.S. Drought Monitor changes from June to July in the Midwest:
• East-central Illinois—degraded from moderate drought (D1) to severe drought (D2)
• South-central Missouri—transitioned to short-term D2
• Lower Michigan—now includes abnormal dryness (D0)
• Greater Ohio—moved to D0
• Northwest Wisconsin—greater area of D1

The High Plains maintains a D2 level of drought while most of the West saw some rainfall, which resulted in “drought elimination,” according to UNL. However, some western states like Montana and Wyoming continue to see drought conditions that have escalated into extreme drought (D3).

A Look Ahead

Kirk Hinz, BAMwx.com CEO, says July’s current weather snapshot is important, but August will be pivotal when it comes to crops.

“August seems to be that transitional month where it’s really going to come down to speed—how quickly temps will level out or warm up,” he says. “If we continue to warm up the oceans, like we are right now, there may be cold front risks into August.”

Hinz says to watch whether the heat will stick around the next two to three weeks as those temps will likely stay into August if they are maintained through July.

BAMwx.com predicts the current La Niña will be followed by a neutral weather pattern—neither La Niña nor El Niño.

If the tides shift to a cooler August, Hinz says harvest could be less fruitful than hoped. However, he believes harvest is too far out to make any definitive predictions.

More on weather:

Third Year of La Niña on the Horizon as Drought Continues in the Plains

July Farm Country Forecast: Hot Like a Firecracker

Texas Drought Approaching 2011’s Historic Levels

The U.S. Just Broke a 27-Week Drought Streak, But Forecasts Don't Look Promising

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:46:25 GMT

Less than 50% of the continental U.S. is in moderate- or D1- drought conditions for the first time since November. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight improvement in drought conditions across the U.S., but forecasts show drought could grow over the summer months.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the 27-week streak in drought conditions means the all-time record of 42 weeks during 2012/2013 still stands. However, the drought picture isn’t pretty in the West, with another streak still on the record books.

“We have edged below 50%. The national number at this point coming in at just under that 50% mark, but we still have another streak going and that is more than 40% of the country and drought. That streak has now reached 88 consecutive weeks going all the way back to late September of 2020. And that is far and away in all-time record previous record was also set during the drought of 2012 and 2013 of 68 consecutive weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Recent rains have blanked the parts of the Plains, partially easing some drought concerns, but Rippey says the rains in the Southern Plains may not last.

“I wish I had better news on the outlook for the south-central and southwestern United States,” says Rippey. “But unfortunately, indications are that we could regrade or reverse back into a hotter, drier pattern as we move into the mid- to late summer. We have certainly seen some encouraging signs across the Southern Plains in May and even into early June. The longer-term outlooks indicate that heat and drought will continue to be a problem in the mid- to late summer.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says that means some of the recent improvements in the drought monitor may have been lost due to triple-digit heat, as well as strong winds. The forecast shows more heat and wind for those areas in the near-term.

“I was looking at some forecasts for the next seven days and triple-digit heat will plague much of Texas, with purple-shaded areas expecting high temperatures of 104 degrees F or greater,” says Rippey, in talking about the latest GFS weather model.

Rippey points out the latest Crop Progress report shows a stark drought picture still sitting in Texas with:

70% of Texas ranch land and pastures rated very poor to poor;
more than 40% of the cotton and grain sorghum rated very poor to poor;
and 29% of the corn and cotton rated very poor to poor.

“With the rains beginning to fall in some of those areas, there is hope we can turn things around. The plants are young. There is a chance to reverse some of the earlier problems there. But it’s going to take more rainfall. If it cuts off again, we’re not going to see things come back,” says Rippey.

“Another thing to point out is that we continue to deal with these periods of excessive heat very early in the season across the south-central United States. Even though we’ve seen rain and continue to see rain in Texas, the heat is going to come roaring back this weekend back into the triple digits,” he adds. “And that unfortunately offset some of the positive effects of the rain that has been falling in West Texas.”

Rippey says he’s not ready to say there will be a return of the 2011 growing season, where consecutive days of triple-digit heat, along with severe drought, robbed farmers of their crops. However, he is concerned about the early heat and what it could mean for overall crop yields this year in the area.

(Farm Journal)

Is ‘Tornado Alley’ Expanding East?

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 20:44:58 GMT

Tornados are nature’s most violent storms. Typically spawned from powerful thunderstorms, these destructive forces of nature can cause fatalities, detrimental damage, and wipe out neighborhoods in a mere matter of seconds.

Since the term was first coined in 1952, “Tornado Alley” has traditionally been located throughout portions of the central U.S., typically from north-central Texas to South Dakota. Tornados are most frequent in this region and have an increased chance of being more destructive.

However, science shows this tornado prone area may be expanding east.

According to a 2018 study , tornado frequency has decreased over the past four decades across Tornado Alley, while increasing just to the east across the Lower Great Lakes and into the Deep South.

Tornado Frequency

(Farm Journal)

The study also reports negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast U.S.

Though trends point to fewer tornado occurrences in the Great Plains, AgDay meteorologist Matt Yarosewick warns that the risk for tornadic weather isn’t necessarily declining.

“The United States is the most active spot on the globe for tornadoes,” Yarosewick says. “The climate, the geography and all those ingredients are always in play. There will always be tons of talk about the number of tornadoes or the intensity. It is all due to the warming climate and the overall larger moisture content in the atmosphere. Most early season severe weather outbreaks are occurring east of “tornado alley.” That is because the east is more active in the springtime with storm fronts whereas “tornado alley” is infamous for the dry line setups on hot summer says. Different times of the year will bring many different setups.”

Along with tornadic weather conditions expanding east, frequency is also increasing.

“The conditions needed for tornadoes are occurring more frequently due to the warming of the planet and the moisture content in the air,” Yarosewick says. “These stronger storm systems feed off of all of those types of conditions and will then, in turn, produce stronger storms and potentially more tornadoes due to the frequency of the events.”

As severe weather begins to ramp up across the U.S., it’s important to keep tornado safety at the top of mind. Planning ahead will lower the chance of injury or death in the event severe weather strikes.

For recent tornado coverage, read:

Texas Tornado Destroys Ag Shop, But Doesn’t Stop FFA Members From Helping Community

Come On In: The Ocean Temperatures Are Hot

Tue, 01 Feb 2022 14:59:37 GMT

Last year was hot. It was so hot, 2021 now holds the record for the hottest ocean temperatures ever. That’s according to an annual study published in “ Advances in Atmospheric Sciences .”

Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2021 was 1.51 degrees °F (0.84 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, according to officials at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

(Farm Journal)

2021 was the 45th consecutive year since 1977 in which global temperatures ranked higher than the 20th-century average, per NOAA , providing yet another indication of the effect of climate change on the planet. High ocean-heat content can contribute to sea-level rise.

Researchers blame human activity for rising water temperature, because oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere.

“The increase in carbon emissions will lead to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” says Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist. “If we have more of these, they almost act as a blanket. Some of the solar radiation from the sun will get reflected back into space, but the radiation that makes it to the ground will then have to deal with the greenhouse gases on the way back out.”

When the sun heats the ground, he says, the ground heats the air. The solar radiation is absorbed by the ground and is then released in the form of heat into our atmosphere.

“Some of that heat is allowed to escape through the atmosphere and back into space, while some is held in by the greenhouse gases,” Yarosewick says. “This will then cause a warming effect over time of our overall global temperature.”

Water will absorb any heat and if the global temperatures go up, then the ocean temperatures should follow that same pattern, he explains. This also causes stronger storms.

“The warmer the water, the more moisture will be allowed to evaporate and increase not only rain rates and heavy precipitation but also the ‘fuel’ for the storms increases,” Yarosewick says.

Additional NOAA weather findings for 2021 :

The average annual sea ice cover in the Arctic was approximately 4.08-million square miles — the ninth-smallest annual average cover recorded between 1979 and 2021. The last seven years (2015-2021) had an annual sea ice extent that ranked among the 10 smallest on record, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centeroffsite link.
There was an above-average number of tropical cyclones around the world in 2021, with a total of 94 named storms. This value ties with 1994 as the 10th-highest number of named storms in the 41-year record.
December’s average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.49 degrees °F (0.83 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average. This value was tied with 2016 as Earth’s fifth-warmest December in 142 years

August Provides Brief Break from Heat, Meteorologist Says Much of U.S. Should Brace for Mild Fall

Wed, 04 Aug 2021 13:42:35 GMT

July weather proved to be a scorcher, as 21 U.S. cities in the West set records for their all-time hottest month. The weather story flipped as crops were greeted with cooler conditions in August. Much of the eastern half of the country has been enjoying cooler and dryer air during the first few days of the month.

“As we head into August here, we’re going to see some really cool air for the Great Lakes and in the Northeast,” says Mike Hoffman, U.S. Farm Report meteorologist. “It’s very comfortable air, obviously, and some of that stretches all the way down into the southeastern portions of the country. But the ridge remains right through the Rockies. Our model is trying to show a trough out West trying to come into the Pacific Northwest. We’ll see if it makes it or not.”

Hoffman says whether the trough continues spanning into the Pacific Northwest or not, the cooler air on the map looked similar to polar vortex in the northern portions of Canada.

“Obviously it’s August, so we don’t have to worry about that. But that’s got some cool air with it. And that may be ascending some more as we head into the middle of the month, and in fact it’s trying to as we head toward next weekend.”

However, that break from the heat looks to be brief. Hoffman says by the weekend, the heat will return for much of the country, and the longer-term forecast indicates average August temperatures will hit above normal for most of the Plains, West and Northeast.

Mild Fall

Hoffman says the longer-term forecasts point to an extremely mild October this year, with above normal temperatures forecast for most of the country.

“Look at October, looks like a pretty warm for October, except near normal in the Southeast,” says Hoffman.

(Farm Journal)

Dry Out West

The precipitation story isn’t promising for the West as the U.S. enters fall. Hoffman says the forecast shows below normal for much of the West, with California expected to see “normal” precipitation. Hoffman says the Gulf Coast and all along the East Coast could experience above normal precipitation through October.

(Farm Journal)

How Sanderson Farms Weathers the Storms

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:42:55 GMT

Residents in Louisiana spent the weekend cleaning up from yet another hurricane. Hurricane Delta made landfall on Friday bringing flash flooding to parts of the state already battered by an unforgiving hurricane season.

Forecasters called for a storm surge as high as 11 feet in some places, impacting those on the coast and further inland, reports AgDay TV national reporter Betsy Jibben.

A Change in Perspective
Pic Billingsley, director of development and engineering for Sanderson Farms, a poultry producer based out of Laurel, Miss., says Hurricane Katrina taught them many lessons 15 years ago – lessons that have changed the way the company does business today.

After Hurricane Katrina, the company organized a crisis management team. Today, hurricanes are just one of the events this team deals with, he adds. When a storm hits the Gulf, their crisis team immediately mobilizes.

With two plants in North Carolina, a plant in south Georgia and plants in south Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, it’s inevitable when a storm comes to the U.S., that their business will be impacted somehow, he says.

“It just never ends,” Billingsley says. “When Katrina came through, it was not expected to intensify like it did. We knew we would be impacted. But you know, a category one storm is one thing. A category three or four storm is something totally different. And the track of this one brought it right into our operation.”

Tips to Weather the Storm
Billingsley said they learned that when you get into a situation like a hurricane, communication is your most important asset. Today their company has satellite phones to keep communication going during the worst storms.

Another way they’ve changed how they prepare for hurricane season is to have larger supplies of diesel on hand at all times.

“When you’ve got generators running, you’re dependent on those. But you’re only as dependent as the amount of fuel you’ve got,” he says.

When Sanderson Farms created their crisis management team, they decided to put different people in charge of all of the areas impacted by a crisis that they felt they could improve upon, he adds.

From energy and fuel to communication and from mortality management to remediation, it’s important to put your best people together to tackle every possible issue that you could foresee happening.

“We have a good cross reference of our whole company represented on this team and everybody has a role,” Billingsley says. “Every year since 2005, we have implemented this process. The people may change within the system, but the system stays the same and it has served us really well.”

More from Farm Journal:

When the Hurricane Hits: Are You Prepared?

Be Careful Who You Trust: Hurricanes Bring Storm of Misinformation