Yield

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:41:53 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 16:48:46 GMT

From disease to drought, this 2025 crop has been thrown a curve ball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA projecting currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month.

USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bu. per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre.

But as AgWeb reported earlier this week , southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network (CPN) .

A map of counties where Southern Rust has been confirmed or reported in 2025.

(CPN )

Add to that fresh concerns about drought, as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is now covering 33% of the country. When it comes to agriculture, 5% of the corn crop is now considered in drought, 11% of the soybean crop and 30% of the cotton crop.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey authored the Monitor this week, saying the drought picture has drastically changed over the past month.

“We’re seeing rapid expansion flash drought across the mid-south, lower Midwest into the Northeast,” Rippey says. “All of this drought has come on in just the last few weeks. At the end of July, we were virtually drought free in the Midwest, so to see these yellows and tans starting to light up, that is reflective of the overall dryness. Of course, it’s a different story in the West where we’ve got drought really deeply entrenched. But from the big picture here, a lot of focus on those developing drought areas from the mid-South into the northeast.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows how the dry August is impacting the drought picture across the country.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Rippey says as the taps turned off for some areas, some portions of the Eastern Corn Belt are seeing their driest August on record. He says that dryness is extending westward into parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt.

“Agriculturally, all eyes are on the Northern Mississippi Delta into the Ohio Valley and the southern Corn Belt. A lot of those areas are receiving less than half of the normal rainfall during the month of August. A few areas have less than 25% of normal,” Rippey says. “And with those taps turning off, that is depleting topsoil moisture. We’re going to have to wait and see with crop production in September to see how the crops have handled this late dryness.”

The map showing the percent of normal precipitation proves areas of the Corn Belt, West and Northeast have turned off dry to end the summer.

(Brad Rippey, USDA)

Rippey says, on a positive note, temperatures have remained mild. So, even though the moisture has been sparse or absent, at least temperatures didn’t amplify the situation. But a dry August is still a concern.

Impact on Yield
Peter Meyer, who helped lead Pro Farmer Crop Tour in the east last week, says with the amount of dryness that’s entered the picture —and the fact that disease has exploded in many Midwest fields over the past week — he thinks the crop is getting smaller, not bigger. But that’s something that likely won’t show up until USDA factors in test weight, which will be the October report.

“I think the crop has gone backward since [Pro Farmer] Crop Tour,” Meyer says. “When I start to look at some of these numbers for the month of August, it was extremely dry in many, many areas. We’re talking the top 10 or 15 dry years out of the last 150, 160 years. So, that’s why the crop ran out of gas. It had a lot of moisture. The heat was there. It pushed a crop further and faster. I think we have an issue.”

Meyer says based on those factors, he’s dropped his yield estimate from the 183 bu. per acre he personally projected during Crop Tour last week.

“But I’m still not below 180 [bu. per acre]. I think we’re going to have an early harvest, and I think we’re going to have an earlier harvest in beans, too. That’s represents a problem here as far as the market is concerned.”

“It definitely feels like it’s going backward,” said Jim McCormick with AgMarket.net on U.S. Farm Report. “When we talk to our clients, which we have some all across the country, they are really concerned about it. Probably a little bit more in the east and the west where we’ve seen some of the driest conditions in 130 years in parts of Ohio. Is it a disaster? No, but it’s definitely taking the top end off the crop.”

Dan Basse, who’s AgResource Company’s president and founder, agrees the U.S. corn and soybean crops could be losing yield, but he warns that it may not be a dramatic cut.

“I think its going backward, but maybe not to the degree that the farmer would like,” Basse said on U.S. Farm Report. “We dropped our yield estimate from 189.2 to 187.1 [bu. per acre]. So, we’re down a skosh from USDA, but this is still a big crop. And some of the early deal data we’re getting out of Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas is above what expectations were. When you think about this crop, southern rust is a bad disease if you get it into blister or early milk stage. But when it happens at dent, you’re looking at yield losses of zero to 4%. So, let’s hope that farmers applied one application of fungicide and that kept them until the crop got in the dent. I’m hoping that’s going to limit yield losses going forward.”

USDA’s next yield revision could come Sept. 12. That’s when the agency is slated to release its latest crop production report. But if you look at USDA’s methodology in September, which is to factor in ear counts and pod counts, Basse thinks USDA could potentially raise its yield estimate next month.

“I think, in general, they tend to grow a little bit bigger,” McCormick says of USDA’s historical pattern of yield estimates from August to September. “I mean, look at last year’s analog year. The crop was big in August, it got bigger in September, then again in October before they started revising it down. It would not be a surprise that they will go bigger, but there’s gonna be a lot of pushback, like Dan said, from the disease pressure. There’s going to be a wide range on the estimate for the September WASDE when it’s all said.”

Basse adds: “I wouldn’t be surprised if USDA raises yield next month. Even on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, it showed us record ear counts and record pod counts. Those are the two most important ingredients for the September report. Now, in October, we’ll have more to know about pod weights and ear weights. But for September, I’m kind of expecting USDA is going to be a few bushels, if you will, from the August estimate. It’s the October report that will determine how big is big.”

Corn and Soybean Prices Tank After USDA Report Makes Surprising Revisions to Yield

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:41:03 GMT

USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.

The big news in the report was the revisions to yield. USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre.

USDA also cut harvested acreage, but with the big increase in production, USDA pegs the 2023 corn production figure of 15.34 billion bushels.

The increases to yield and production were larger than what the trade expected, which caused corn prices to sink.

“We got a lot of criticism for our estimate all summer long being too high. And we ended up too low,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group. “This crop, I’m just really impressed with, not just the genetics of it, but farmers with their technology, the seed placement, just the management of it. They are getting better and better at withstanding the stresses and it just makes you wonder how good this crop might have been had we not had the stresses we had.”

(Farm Journal)

USDA also increased demand, which helped offset a portion of the increased yield. USDA increased feed use by 25 million bushels. The agency also increased ethanol use by 50 million bushels.

“Those revisions were pretty much in line with what the trade expected,” says Jim McCormmick of AgMarket.net. “And I guess it’s a good thing because without those upward revisions of demand, this carryout would have really exploded to the upside. And I think the market could’ve had an even worse negative reaction than it’s currently having.”

Surprise in Soybeans

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November. Soybean production is now pegged at 4.16 billion bushels.

Suderman says these yield increases are something farmers should note, especially with the current debate on how much of an impact weather will have on Brazil’s crop that’s currently in the ground.

“The same genetics we plant here we plant in South America as well, essentially, so we need to look at South America in that same light,” Suderman says. “This crop really did well, especially in eastern Midwest. We saw some really good yields from corn and soybeans this year. And some of that may have been some of the benefits from the smoke coming from the Canadian fires. That’s one of the theories now that was sulfur and some other positive effects were coming from that smoke.”

Cuts to Brazil

After drought impacted Brazil’s crop for much of the growing season, USDA cut its soybean forecast in Brazil to 157 million metric tons. That’s down from the 161 million metric tons forecast in the last report. USDA also trimmed its corn estimate for Brazil by 2 million metric tons.

“Traders were looking for bigger cuts,” McCormick says. “The rhetoric I think was even for bigger cuts and what the average straight guess was. So yeah, it was definitely a little bit disappointing. But time will tell where we’re at. Some of the modeling I’ve seen for the weather is that we are going to turn a little bit warmer and drier here in the middle part of January, and with this latest crop that has been planted, that could cause some problems to that crop and still shrink it. And of course, we still haven’t started planting safrinha corn crops. So the size of that crop is yet to be determined.”

Quarterly Grain Stocks

(Farm Journal)

USDA’s revisions to the 2023 crop production numbers pushed the quarterly grain stock estimates higher and above trade expectations.

Corn stocks are forecast up 13% to 12.2 billion bushels. Soybeans were adjusted down 1% from December to 3 billion bushels.

Wheat supplies on December 1 were forecast to be up 8% from a year ago at 1.41 billion bushels.

Better Yields and Improved Crop Prices Propel Ag Economists' Outlooks for 2024

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 20:26:11 GMT

After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists’ views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.

“The biggest takeaway I see out of the Monthly Monitor this month is we’re seeing a lot more positives than we’ve seen for the last couple of months,” says Scott Brown, the interim director for the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, who also helps author the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is conducted by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal each month, as it’s a way to gauge not only the state of the ag economy but also explore the impacts of policy and trade. Brown says as commodity prices have seen some momentum, outlooks among economists are also shifting more positively for 2024.

“I think when you look at where we are in terms of our estimates for crop prices, and we’re talking about crop prices for harvest next fall at this point, we saw a number of more positive responses, maybe the most positivity since we started our estimates for 2024/2025. As both corn and soybeans continue to move higher, there’s more positive news this month,” Brown adds.

Spike in 2024 Net Farm Income Forecasts

(Farm Journal)

That positivity also boosted net farm income estimates. The November Monthly Monitor asked ag economists to provide their outlook for net farm income in 2024. The survey found ag economists now expect a big spike in net farm income forecasts for the new year.

“Farm income estimates were raised almost $5 billion for 2024, relative to what they would have said in October,” Brown says. “And I think that just resonates as you look at higher estimates of corn prices and higher estimates of soybean prices, things just look a little better than where we were a couple of months ago.”

(Farm Journal)

What’s driving improved outlooks in the farm economy? Economists say commodity prices, including improved yields and harvest picture for some commodities.

Another major factor is South America. When asked what factors will impact crop prices in the next six months, economists say:

South American crop production (including weather impacts on planted acres) and related export sales.
Global dynamics in general, as well as conditions and production in key regions like the Black Sea and China.
U.S. export demand strength and growing crop supplies.
Final U.S. crop size and weather-related impacts.

Weather Worries in South America

The latest USDA report pegged Brazil’s corn production at 129 million metric tons, but according to the Monthly Monitor, that estimate may be too optimistic.

“Our survey of the economist would have suggested 126.5 mmt right now,” Brown says. We did have some answering very near that 129 mmt and others saying 125 mmt. It’s a combination of weather as well as economics, not all that great. That is leading to some lower estimates.”

When asked what’s driving changes in the crop forecasts for Brazil and Argentina? Economists say it’s all about weather, the impacts of El Nino and delayed planting that could eat into the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. Economists also say Brazil could be looking at fewer soybean acres.

“Uncertain, volatile weather conditions - either too wet or too dry as Brazil transitions from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns,” says one economist when asked what are the factors driving the change in estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop. “Plus, delayed plantings of the 2024 Brazilian Soybean crop with substantial replantings required is hurting production potential.”

Bullish Views on Cattle Continue

While views on crop prices turned more positive in the latest Monthly Monitor, economists are still bullish longer-term on cattle.

“I think folks are more positive still on the cattle side of the equation, despite what’s been the last few weeks of some lower cattle prices,” Brown says. “We are talking about an industry that continues to talk about record or near record, and perhaps in early 2024, we get back to record prices yet again.”

(Farm Journal)

The outlook for pork prices, as well as dairy, continued to see some pressure, but overall, the factors economists think will impact livestock prices over the next six months include:

Weaker demand domestically and globally.
Global economic health, including slowdown/recession in some geographies.

Health of the Farm Economy by Geography

This month’s survey also asked ag economists to rank the health of the farm economy by geography. The strongest region of the country, according to economists survey, is the Midwest.

“I think we ended up with especially better corn yields than anybody would have thought. Maybe soybean yields are not even as bad as some would have suggested. And then again, cattle still being very positive there, Brown says.

(Farm Journal)

According to economists surveyed, there were a multitude of factors that played into how they ranked each geography, including:

Drought and weather
Government policy impacts upon state and metropolitan economic health.
Commodity /crop mix

“Certainly, crop and livestock mix is important,” says one economist in the anonymous survey. “While corn prices are lower the combination of yields and prices were likely profitable for many. But lower prices have come on the heels of very high prices in the last couple of years. Hog and dairy returns are dragging down financial health in the sector regionally. Cattle prices are boosting overall returns in the Plains. But drought has certainly hurt ranchers, including water in the West.

Impact of Interest Rates (Both Positive and Negative)

Economists are still concerned about how interest rates could negatively impact agriculture over the next 12 months, but for the first time, economists now view it as a possible positive over the next year.

When asked, “What do you view as the most negative aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture?”, the Monthly Monitor shows:

High interest rates, market volatility and a shortage of working capital create a challenging economic climate.
Production challenges range from weather conditions to commodity prices and policy support.
A need for investment into increasing domestic and demand for U.S. products.

When followed up with, what do you view as the most positive aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture, economists say:

Economic resiliency of the farm operator, including strong financial positions for some operators and farm income forecasts remaining above the long-term average. Some optimism for stabilizing interest rates.
Promising new demand opportunities, including the expansion of biofuel uses, as well as continued consumer demand.
Improvements in technology and the possibility of better production in 2024.

“The news that we seem to be getting right now is, although inflation is still a problem, maybe less so than we would have thought. So perhaps we’re getting near the end of interest rate increases, I even see some out there suggesting we could get lower interest rates as we get into 2024,” Brown says.

Outlook for Crop Mix in 2024

Economists were also asked to shift their focus to 2024. Economists say the most important factors that could affect 2024 crop plantings/acres in the U.S. are:

Spring 2024 weather conditions and drought concerns.
Corn-soybean price ratio affecting decisions, as well as planting prospects for corn/soybeans/cotton and wheat profitability.
Changes in output prices, higher input costs, crop insurance price levels and 2024 futures prices affecting planting decisions.
South American crop production and demand (domestically and globally) impacting prices.

The Midwest is Set to Bake Under High Heat, Ag Meteorologists Now Worry About Severe Crop Damage

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:52:44 GMT

Portions of the Midwest could see the most challenging weather yet this year, and according to leading ag meteorologists, it’s creating more concerns for crop conditions. With heat forecast to top 100 degrees, along with little rain in this week’s forecast, crop conditions could deteriorate and the biggest risk in the western Corn Belt.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the stubborn high heat that’s been in the south and southwest will push its way into the Midwest by mid-week. The growing season has been far from perfect, but the overall crop condition ratings have seen steady improvements in July. Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed 55% of the U.S. corn crop and 50% of U.S. soybeans are covered in drought , an improvement from the 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans considered to be in drought the last week of June.

“It’s been a year full of challenges, no doubt about it,” says Rippey. “To this point, our biggest issues have been with the dryness that peaked in late June, and since then, we’ve seen considerable relief in some areas. But now for the first time, we’re combining that with the highest temperatures of the season to date.”

(Farm Journal)

A map from NOAA shows areas of the country in for the most extreme conditions compared to normal. The areas of the Midwest in yellow will see temps 7 to 10 degrees above normal.

“We could see widespread temperatures 100 degrees or higher throughout the western Corn Belt, extending eastward into the Mississippi Valley, and so the areas like Missouri where we really haven’t seen much recovery, if any, this heat on top of the dryness is coming in terrible time. We have corn and soybeans that are in the reproductive to filling stage, which it’s absolutely critical to keep temperatures and keep the moisture coming in during this time. We have neither in the driest areas right now,” says Rippey.

Western and Central Corn Belt Could Be Hit the Hardest

Rippey says the current forecasts indicate the extreme heat won’t initially hit the eastern Corn Belt. He says those areas will see temperatures in the mid-90s, but the western Corn Belt is bracing for consecutive days of temperatures above 100 degrees.

“You’ve got to really focus on that southwestern Corn Belt area as the biggest concern, because if you look at Missouri, and parts of neighboring states, we’ve got much deeper problems than this week’s heat; we have the moisture deficiency, and we have the drought issues that go back all the way into early spring,” he says. “And so where we have those subsoil and topsoil moisture shortages in the southwestern Corn Belt, overlaying that with 100 degree heat this week, that is going to be another blow for corn and soybeans in those areas.”

Heading into this week's Midwest heat wave, I wanted to post the current accumulated stress degree day map.

Calculated by adding degrees above 86°F for each day.
Example: if today is 95°F, 9 SDDs are accumulated

>140 SDDs could result in corn yield loss

Data: PRISM April 1 pic.twitter.com/ZdgxRfOEsH
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) July 24, 2023

With the heat that’s been parked in Texas and across the Southwest this month, Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, explains the duration of the heat is the biggest question. While the forecasts indicate the heat will last through the weekend, some weather models point to high temperatures returning next week.

“We’re going to be talking about temperatures that are going to be in the mid- to upper-90s as far north as Minnesota and the Dakotas, and then possibly, there’s going to be some pockets in Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, that are going to be over 100 degrees Fahrenheit,” says Snodgrass. “And so we always worry it’s going to last. Is this going to be a two-to-three-day event? Or is there going to be a 10-day event or a 30-day event?”

Hot with a Chance of Isolated Storms

He says the current thinking is the heat starts on Wednesday and then lasts through the weekend. There are some forecasts pointing to 105 degree heat in Iowa.

“But the question we have is, there’s humidity in this pattern. So, will there be storms that blow up in the middle of this and bring some cooler weather? That’s a possibility,” he says. “So, I would call it hot, hot with a lot of isolated storm activity. There’s going to be winners out of this, and there’s going to be a larger area that’s going to see some crop damage.”

Rippey points out there are areas that have seen more than adequate rain this summer, including Oklahoma.

“It’s incredible when you look at the last three months,” says Rippey. “We have seen upwards of 20 inches of rain in parts of Oklahoma, and even into southwestern Kansas. That is a year’s worth of rainfall in three months. And it’s also areas that were in some of the highest levels of drought just three months ago, at the end of the winter wheat season. So big turnaround for those folks.”

He says when you travel north and east of those areas, like into Missouri and Nebraska and even into Minnesota, that’s where the rains have been absent.

“We have seen a more recent trend toward drier weather in parts of the Upper Midwest. Minnesota really comes to mind as an area really short on rainfall the last several weeks,” says Rippey. “Even there, we’re going to see temperatures creeping up into the 90s to near 100 this week. The crops are a little bit later in that part of the world, as you move into the northern Corn Belt, which means we’re really at a critical time right now in terms of reproductive corn and blooming soybeans. If it turns cooler and wetter, soybeans still have a chance, but corn gets one chance to move through. So it’s really bad timing for upper Midwestern crops due to the heat this week, and the dryness that’s been developing the last several weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says the current forecast indicates the central Midwest and into the South and Southwest will miss out on the chance for rainfall.

“Even though the Midwest will see sporadic showers, amounts will generally not be enough to keep up with high temperatures and peak crop-moisture demand. This could lead to increased stress on corn and soybeans, especially in hotter and more significantly drought-affected areas of the western Corn Belt,” Rippey says.

(Farm Journal)

Snodgrass says Climate Prediction Center (CPC) August through October forecast indicates the ridge, which is causing the high heat to enter the Midwest this week, gets shoved back West in August, which will keep the Midwest much cooler in August. CPC also thinks El Nino takes over and it turns wet, but Snodgrass says he’s not sold on that forecast, as all the weather models still have conflicting forecasts.

“I feel like we’ve been punched in the mouth twice. And if there’s a third punch, maybe it’s, you know, longer duration into early August, and I think we’re going to see some possible significant yield loss. But if storms cascade over the top of it, and the ridge goes back to Arizona, then we will be talking about busting bins with yield,” Snodgrass adds.

Ag Economists Turn More Positive Longer-Term On the Farm Economy

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:01:20 GMT

The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows weather extremes and wild swings in the commodity markets are the two biggest factors impacting short-term outlooks, but the economists surveyed expressed a more favorable view longer-term. The latest survey also shows the biggest wildcard for agriculture over the next year could be geopolitical risks tied to China and the war in Ukraine.

This is the second survey of the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal. The first-of-its-kind survey collects insights from ag economists across the U.S. Nearly 60 economists are asked each month to provide their forecasts and views. They represent a wide geography with expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

This month’s survey showed several key changes from June. Economists say they believe USDA’s current corn and soybean yield projections are still too high, and they anticipate a drop in forecasted corn and soybean prices. The economists in the July survey also predict cattle and hog prices could continue to climb higher this year.

“To me, the biggest thing that sticks out in the July survey is the more positive view 12 months into the future relative to where we were in June,” says Scott Brown, University of Missouri agricultural economist who helps author the survey each month. “In the very short run, the economists are a little less positive than where they were in June. I think that has a lot to do with the weather and general market moves we’ve seen over the last few weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

The longer-term optimism revealed in the survey is despite economists’ expectations for two consecutive years of declining net farm income, falling short of the record set in 2022. The July Monthly Monitor forecasts net farm income to fall to $132.8 billion in 2023, which is below the $134.7 billion in the June survey and USDA’s current net farm income estimate of $136.9 billion. That’s still a big drop from 2022, when USDA says net farm income reached $162.7 billion.

This month’s survey also tried to peel back the layers of what commodities might be aiding the more positive long-term outlook versus weighing on the overall health of the ag economy in the short-term.

“On the crop side, it’s positive to very positive,” Brown says. “There are a few in the negative category, but a majority of economists responded the crops side of the equation looks positive. Whereas, on the livestock side, we have more negatives than we have positives.”

Economists say there are several positive developments that could shape U.S. agriculture, such as continued productivity and efficiency gains; a healthy farm economy and balance sheets; projected shifts in interest rates; new and expanded opportunities for renewable fuels; and the strength of the U.S. cattle market and meat exports as a whole. Geopolitical issues could also impact global crop production and, in turn, bring some demand back to the U.S.

Cuts to Projected U.S. Crop Yields

The survey was sent to ag economists the day after USDA released its most recent yield forecast in the July WASDE report. In what was called a rare move early in the growing season, USDA cut its corn yield forecast by 2.2% to 177.5 bu. per acre, down from 181.5 bu. per acre in the June report. The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is nearly 3 bu. per acre lower than USDA, with the group of ag economists projecting a yield of 174.9 bu. per acre.

“For me, the interesting piece of this story is there’s a lot of variability in the responses from those being surveyed, which highlights how varied the weather has been as you move around the country,” Brown says. “We had yield estimates slightly below 170 bu. per acre on the low end and some above 180 bu. per acre on the high end.”

(Farm Journal)

Brown says the soybean estimate also came in lower than both USDA’s July WASDE report and the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey. USDA estimates soybean yield at 52 bu. per acre, and the average ag economists’ estimate is 50.6 bu. per acre, a 0.5 bu. cut from the June survey.

“There was a little less variability from top to bottom on those yields, but when you look at prices, even with what was a lower corn yield, their estimate of 2023/2024 corn prices went from $4.99 in June to $4.80 in the July survey,” Brown says.

(Farm Journal)

What Economists are Watching the Next Six Months for Crop Prices

When asked what factors will impact crop prices in the next six months, economists said:

Final yields
Export demand and competition
Weather domestically and abroad
Geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and China, including developments that impact ag exports in Ukraine/Russia

“I think a couple of things stick out beyond the weather discussion, and one is export demand as well as global competition, such as what’s going to happen with South America in terms of competing with U.S. corn and soybean markets.

“The economists certainly continue to talk about the geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and China, in particular, and what that means for our ability to export corn and soybeans as we look ahead,” Brown says. “Those are really the two big ones that came out of this survey.”

What Livestock Economists Are Watching the Next 6 Months for Livestock

Ag economists think the following factors will impact prices the next six months:

Changes in feed costs and impact of corn prices
Rising milk prices
Consumer meat demand and influences from macroeconomic factors, both domestically and abroad
Placements of cattle on feed

Brown says while the majority of economists are concerned about feed costs and the impact on livestock producers, the second-biggest concern revealed in the survey is demand. Economists pointed to both domestic and international demand as possible problem areas.

“2021 and 2022 were extremely positive from a demand standpoint, and we seem to be backing up a little bit in 2023,” Brown says.

Economists More Bullish on Cattle and Hogs

The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists are more positive when asked about cattle and hog prices, but they have a more negative view on dairy, which they consider the biggest weight in the livestock sector.

“When you look at where pork prices have gone over the last month, it’s gotten more positive. Now, I don’t want to suggest we’re back in black ink, but we have seen recovery in things like the pork cutout value,” Brown says. “The economists continue to worry about how the general economy will affect livestock going forward, but overall, it seems we’re seeing a more positive view from the livestock perspective in this month’s survey.”

(Farm Journal)

Based on the July monitor, economists expect average milk prices to fall back to 2021 levels, but production costs will continue to be higher in 2023 versus 2021.

“No. 1, the economists continue to worry about feed costs,” Brown says. “We continue to see fairly high feed costs affecting profitability. So even in the case of beef cattle, where we’re talking record cattle prices, we’re not talking record profitability because of the feed cost side.”

(Farm Journal)

Longer-Term Look at the Health of Agriculture

Over the next 12 months, there are several things that could shape the health of the ag economy, according to the July survey:

Crop prices and production costs, including inputs, rental rates, land values and supply chain disruptions
Subsequent impact on producer margins and the protein sector from rising interest rates and inflationary pressure
Weather considerations, including drought conditions in the short run and yield impacts in longer run
Geopolitical tensions and competitiveness of U.S. ag exports
Changes in consumer demand domestically and abroad, new markets for agricultural products, including biofuels

“One thing that came pretty strongly out of the survey is the continued increases in productivity in agriculture, which makes us more efficient,” Brown says. “The farm economy is generally healthy, and when you look at balance sheets, they are still really, really strong in many cases. That’s despite a lot of the issues we’ve talked about.”

In the July survey, economists voiced more concerns about interest rates and the impact on operating loans. One economist also mentioned the industry might be underestimating the negative impact Proposition 12 could have on the entire livestock industry.

The Turbulent Relationship Between the U.S. and China

While none of the ag economists surveyed think the U.S. will enter into a trade war with China in 2023, economists continue to remain cautious about China, which could have a direct impact on U.S. agriculture.

When asked to list the top factors shaping trade relations between the U.S. and China, economists said:

POTUS and political polarization in the U.S.
Non‐agricultural geopolitical tensions, including national security concerns, support of Taiwan and limits on technological production
Changes in China’s economic growth, including population and demographics
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s relationship with China
Quality, price and availability of U.S. products compared with global competitors

Potential Events/Factors Not Getting Enough Attention Today

The July survey also asked economists to outline any factors or events that currently aren’t receiving enough attention but could shape agriculture over the next 12 months. One economist brought up impacts of geopolitical risks and fallout from the war in Ukraine, but also a potential war between the U.S. and China.

Other potential events that could cause a major shakeup in agriculture include:

Weather events, domestically and abroad, warranting a broader conversation on climate
Potential for a significant recession in China
Focus on renewable diesel obscuring importance of RFS in overall biofuel use
Workforce concerns for producing, processing and transporting agricultural products domestically and abroad
Declining EU pork production and commerce implications of Proposition 12
Strikes at shipping ports in Vancouver and potential for upward pressure on potash prices with reduced production capacity at Nutrien mines in Saskatchewan

Previous Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor Coverage

Most Ag Economists Think It’s Unlikely the 2023 Farm Bill Will Be Written in 2023

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Game Changer for Soybeans? USDA Ignites Fireworks in the Markets With Two Major Acreage Surprises

Sat, 01 Jul 2023 01:33:09 GMT

USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report , including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations. The markets had a lot of news to digest on Friday between the report news and the rain and derecho damage across the Corn Belt , but analysts called Friday’s reports a “game changer” for soybeans.

According to USDA, farmers made a big cut to their intended soybean acreage. USDA Jun acreage report shows farmers planted 83.5 million acres of soybeans, a large reduction from the the 87.51-million-acre intention in March. This year’s planted acreage for soybeans is 5% below last year.

The other big surprise came in corn. USDA says farmers planted 94.1 million acres of corn this year, which is up from the 91.9 million acres reported in the 2023 Prospective Plantings report in March. The 94.1 million acres planted is also 6% higher than what farmers planted in 2022.

Other acreage highlights include:

Cotton Acres: 11.1 million, down from 11.3 million reported in USDA’s March planting intentions survey, a 19% reduction from 2022
Wheat Acres: 49.6 million acres, slightly lower than the 49.9 million acres in March, a 9% increase from last year

(Farm Journal)

A Major Market Game Changer

The biggest surprise was in soybeans, with analysts saying this could change the course for soybean prices.

“It’s an absolute game changer in regard to the soybean balance sheets,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “What it means it gives you very, very little room for error in regard to yield and production given this lower acreage number. And on the flip side, we saw a higher corn acreage number that went up to 94.1 from 92, even in March. So it was it was a big divergence in the markets sell off in corn on a higher acreage number and a sharp rally in soybeans on a drastically lower acreage number.”

Mark Gold of StoneX Group says this year proves when April weather is dry, farmers will plant more corn.

“It’s just the corn acres going up as much as they did wasn’t that big of a surprise. It’s the beans coming down,” says Gold. “That was the bigger surprise. And now you’re left with very tight carry outs on the beans. And this is assuming the government’s right on yield at 181.5 bu. per acre on corn and 52 [bu. per acre] on beans. And I don’t believe we’re near there, even with the rains that we’ve seen.”

Tighter Stocks Theme Continues in June Report

USDA’s March Grain Stocks report showed tighter stocks, which stole headlines. That theme continued Friday, with USDA’s estimates coming in lower than what the trade expected.

As of June 1, 2023, USDA shows the following adjustments in grain stocks:

Corn: 4.106 billion bushels, which is lower than the 4.35 billion at this time last year.
According to USDA, soybean stocks sit at 796 million bushels, also lower than the 968 million in June 2022.
Wheat stocks are projected at 580 million bushels, lower than the 698 million a year ago.

(Farm Journal)

Vaclavik says he doesn’t view the grain stocks report alone as bullish or bearish, but when you step back and look at the larger picture, demand is still an issue, but the supply story is changing after Friday’s reports.

“New crop demand for U.S. corn and U.S. soybeans is not good,” Vaclavik says. “The book of export sales is terrible. Ethanol production has not been where it needs to be. The one bright spot would be soybean crush, and we’re going to continue to set records there because of the crush expansion. But I think that as prices rise, especially in soybeans, you’ve probably got to look at the demand side and you could this you could say for the corn balance sheet to USDA is in all likelihood overstating new crop demand for both of those crops on the balance sheets given what we know today.”

The Yield Debate Heats Up

USDA’s reports definitely caused some fireworks, but says traders will digest those reports in a couple days. Then, the focus is back on weather.

“I’ll tell you this, the yield number and the acreage numbers are going to be digest not not the yield number. But the acreage numbers that we saw today, they will be digested by the trade very quickly. It’ll take maybe another day or two. And we’re going to be on again trading weather and yield prospects,” says Vaclavik.

The other possible crop impact is the derecho that blasted across the Midwest on Thursday . While the system brought crop-saving rain, it also packed a punch of winds topping 100 mph. According to agronomist Ken Ferrie who lives in Heyworth, Illinois, he thinks the earlier planted corn will be impacted the most.

“April-planted corn is pushing tassels and trying to pollinate, so unfortunately, it’ll get hit the hardest because it’s hard for tasseled corn to stand back up; it’ll just curve at the top,” Ferrie told AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks. “And that down that’s corn creates pollination problems. So, from a yield problem that’ll be the tough spot, and that’ll be the tougher stuff to harvest because it just won’t stand back up.”

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked a destructive #derecho as it raced across the Midwest, causing widespread damage across several states. This visible imagery shows the bubbling clouds, and the satellite's Geostationary Lightning Mapper allowed us to see the frequent… pic.twitter.com/SvYbnuf5em
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 30, 2023

Ferrie points out farmers could have done without the wind, but the rains could be extremely beneficial for much of the Illinois crop. That’s as c rop conditions last week dropped to the lowest since 1988 . Gold says now it’s a debate of just how beneficial those rains were this week.

“Before we had these rains this week, we were looking at a corn yield of maybe maybe 174 bu. per acre or 175, somewhere in that range. I think he got to bump it up a little bit, because a lot of areas did get some rains without the damage. But we don’t know the derecho damage, we’ll have to see what the crop progresses on Monday, but I’m not sure it’s going to show all the damage by any stretch of the imagination. And the bottom line is, the corn yield, in my opinion can’t get anywhere near 181.5 [bu. per acre]. We’ve had rains, we’re gonna get more rains here this weekend. What is it a little bit too much too late. We’ll have to see. The crops are resilient. We know that.

Peter Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights says the rains this week will help, but he thinks damage has been done to the crops. He doesn’t think it’s as bad as 2012, but he sees some similarities to 1992.

“In 1992, conditions were lower than 2023 levels early in the season, but rebounded with early-July rains, resulting in a corn yield that was 8% above trend at the time while soybean yields outperformed trend by 10%,” says Meyer. “While the 2023 weather pattern has changed with the transition to an El Nino, U.S. corn and soybean acres are/were dry enough to require constant moisture at this point. 1992 was also an El Nino year but that El Nino started in the summer of 1991 and was already entrenched for 12 months. 1992 also saw on the wettest July’s on record, a tall task at this point.”

Before this week’s rains, an AgWeb poll showed growers were extremely concerned about yields. The poll found 61% of respondents are getting more worried by the day when it comes to corn yields. 25% aren’t sure. 15% say they are feeling good about current yield potential.

(Farm Journal)

There is more rain in the forecast for Illinois, as Ferrie points out, with the possible crop prospects improving now that they had the initial rain, even if it did come with high winds.

“That inch of water, many farmers would probably take the wind in the corn to get the water, because it looked like we weren’t going to get any of it, and suddenly our forecast has rain for the next five out of six days,” says Ferrie. “So, it kind of broke that bubble that was holding us in the drought.”

Wide Range of Yield Estimates in Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report, a new survey of ag economists shows a wide range of yield estimates. The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , conducted by University of Missouri and Farm Journal, shows the average estimate by economists is below USDA’s current projection for all crops, except cotton.

The survey showed:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

(Farm Journal)

Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather in June is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year.

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

Related Stories:

USDA Reports Hold Bullish Surprise for Beans, But Bearish for Corn

Derecho Packs Punch Of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here's What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 18:35:26 GMT

Drought was a major storyline for U.S. crop conditions last summer. Dry conditions spurred by La Nina weighed on corn yields across areas of the Corn Belt. As La Nina fades, and El Niño starts to make a return, meteorologists say the weather shift could also signal better crop production in 2023.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and it’s associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. While it can bring warm temperatures around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

“We do have a great suite of models that we’d like to just combine and compare, and what’s interesting about this particular year is they’re all telling the same story. And that story is that we expect most of the Corn Belt to have decent summer thunderstorm activity, decent precipitation and a lack of long duration episodes of heat,” says Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions . “We always get short heat waves, but I’m talking about the long duration ones that can really go in there and destroy yields.”

Change in Pattern Hints Change in Summer Growing Conditions

He points out with most models signaling the return of El Nino, it is also a hint of what type of growing conditions crops like corn could see this summer.

“El Niño and the likelihood of it becoming a full-fledged El Niño by the time we get into summer, is pegged at about a 75% chance of occurring now,” says Snodgrass. “Should it manifest itself and be the most dominant, what we call teleconnection in the pattern, we would likely be seeing a better year overall.”

Snodgrass says his forecast for favorable growing conditions this summer is based off previous El Niño years, and particularly, El Niño summers.

“Since 1970, we’ve had 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had trendline yields slightly above that. This means we generally think of El Niño summers of having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms, so we’ll keep a close eye on it,” he says.

Read More: Punishing Drought Now Expected to Persist Through July Across Texas, Plains

Drought in the Plains Still a Concern

The area Snodgrass is most concerned about is the southern Plains. Growers in the area are finally seeing chances of rain, but he says considering how deep the drought is in areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, it will take above normal precipitation to eat away at the punishing drought.

“The places I’m most concerned about right now have to be the places that are already in drought because it takes so much effort to overcome the lack of soil moisture in those places,” he says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also watching El Niño, and the more short-term need for moisture across the Plains. He says timing of those rains will be key.

“If you talked to me a month ago, I would have been talking about how we expect to see El Niño by the end of the calendar year. But all of a sudden, as we look at the how the Pacific Ocean is evolving, it seems like El Niño is more and more imminent each passing day,” says Rippey. “From a drought standpoint, that ultimately should be good news for these drought-affected areas of the Great Plains, because that should help this transition out of drought. But the big question is, will it come in time to salvage summer crop planting?”

How USDA's $2.8 Billion Climate-Smart Investment Might Impact Your Operation

Tue, 20 Sep 2022 06:20:07 GMT

After months of talking about climate-smart agriculture and working with a handful of funding recipients, USDA is now investing up to $2.8 billion in 70 projects under the first Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding pool. The projects, which seek funds ranging from $5 million to $100 million, include everything from flood control to building carbon markets.

After sifting through 450 proposals, USDA’s Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding recipients include:

Government entities
Farmer coops
Conservation, energy and environmental groups
Universities
Small businesses
Large corporations

Trust In Food™ , the sustainability division of Farm Journal , is among the USDA Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities project recipients for its coalition-driven Connected Ag Project.

The Impact of USDA Climate Funding

According to Tom Vilsack, USDA secretary, these efforts will “increase the competitive advantage of U.S. agriculture both domestically and internationally,” while building wealth in rural America.

“Through today’s announcement of initial selections for the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities, USDA is delivering on our promise to build and expand these market opportunities for American agriculture and be global leaders in climate-smart agricultural production,” he says.

USDA’s press release says, from the funding, farmers can expect:

1. Technical and financial assistance to implement voluntary climate-smart practices.

2. Methods to quantify, monitor, report and verify greenhouse gas benefits.

3. New markets and promotion in climate-smart commodities.

With this new funding in place, USDA anticipates the projects will:

Provide hundreds of expanded markets and revenue streams for producers and commodities ranging from traditional corn to specialty crops.
Reach more than 50,000 farms, encompassing 20 to 25 million acres of working land engaged in climate-smart production practices such as cover crops, no-till and nutrient management.
Sequester upward of 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent over the lives of the projects. This is equivalent to removing more than 10 million gasoline-powered passenger vehicles from the road for one year.
Engage more than 50 universities to help advance projects, especially with outreach and monitoring, measurement, reporting and verification.

Proposals for the 70 projects include plans to match 50% of the federal investment with nonfederal funds.

Who Will Provide the Funds?

The Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding will be pulled from USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds in two pools. USDA says the projects announced today are part of the first funding pool.

The CCC has been tapped numerous times in the past year, such as a March announcement to put $250 million toward American-made fertilizer to give U.S. farmers more choices in the marketplace. Some, including Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer policy analyst, feel the CCC is more of an “ATM machine for aggies” than a tool used to stabilize, support and protect farm income and prices, as it was originally created for.

When asked about why USDA chose to pull more funds from the CCC, Vilsack said it was a matter of timing.

“We track expenditures from the CCC on a monthly basis. We are within a couple of weeks from the end of the fiscal year and there are significant resources left in the CCC account,” he says. “We won’t require any action from Congress to replenish the CCC. We will be able to adequately fund this initiative, as well as some nutrition announcements made today, and still have billions of dollars left in reserve in the account through the remainder of the fiscal year.”

The Agency says the second funding pool will be announced later this year.

How Funds Will Be Used

In the first pool of funding, numerous projects were selected with funding ceilings from $70 to $95 million. According to USDA, some of the individual projects that will span several states include:

1. Climate SMART (Scaling Mechanisms for Agriculture’s Regenerative Transformation), led by Truterra, LLC

This project, which will reach across 28 states, aims to catalyze a self-sustaining, market-based network to broaden farmer access, scale adoption of climate-smart practices, and sustainably produce grain and dairy commodities with verified and quantified climate benefits.

2. The Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovative Finance Initiative, led by Field to Market

This project, covering more than 30 states, will use innovative finance mechanisms to accelerate climate-smart practice uptake by farmers, leveraging private sector demand to strengthen markets for climate-smart commodities. Partners will provide technical assistance and additional financial incentives to an array of producers across commodities, tying climate-smart practices to commodity purchases and creating a scalable model for private sector investment.

3. Connected Ag Climate-Smart Commodities Pilot Project, led by Farm Journal, Inc.

This project will expand climate-smart markets for many agricultural commodities and provide direct payments, technical assistance and data management strategies to row crop, beef, dairy, pork and other producers to adopt climate-smart practices and strategies.

4. Scaling Methane Emissions Reductions and Soil Carbon Sequestration, led by the Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.

Through this project, Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) climate-smart pilots will directly connect on-farm greenhouse gas reductions with the low-carbon dairy market. DFA will use its cooperative business model to ensure the collective financial benefits are captured at the farm, creating a compelling opportunity to establish a powerful self-sustaining circular economy model benefiting U.S. agriculture.

5. The Soil Inventory Project Partnership for Impact and Demand, led by The Meridian Institute

This project will build climate-smart markets, streamline field data collection and combine sample results with modeling to make impact quantifications accurate and locally specific but also scalable. Targeted farms produce value-added and direct-to-consumer specialty crops as well as the 19 most common row crops in the U.S.

Details on the other projects can be found here .

More on ag policy:

Biden Administration Presses Unions, Railroads to Avoid Shutdown

More than Hangry: What’s Really at Stake in Global Food Insecurity?

WASDE Preview: A Yield Bump Could Still Be A Friendly Report

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:09:26 GMT

Weather pressures and early maturing of the 2018 crop have many in the trade looking for clues as to how the markets will react to Friday’s USDA report.

“The August report is interesting because it is still just a guess—it’s a stepping stone,” Steve Georgy, Allendale. “We’re not in the fields doing field checks yet, still a little bit early.”

Eleven out of the last 20 years, they’ve been 4 bu. off either way, Georgy says. “So still, it’s variable.”

Allendale is using a 177-bu. average yield guess, adds Brian Splitt, which is only 0.4 bu. ahead of the record 176.6 bu. per acre.

“We could still see a new record yield and have that be, to me, price supportive because we still have carry out levels that are below 2 million bushels,” Splitt says. “I think the markets are still going to want to go higher, if we get a number like that.”

Weekly export sales have been very strong and, specifically for corn, driven by global demand, Georgy says. That’s likely to continue.

Multiple Factors Hitting Soybean Markets

Soybeans, on the other hand, are still needing moisture to fill out the pods.

“Interestingly, only six of the past 20 years they’ve increased yields on this report for soybeans,” Splitt says. Statistically, this is likely to be a friendly report for the trade.

“So when you look at the type of yield change, we would see it’s to the average of 2.4%. If they do increase yield, that would still be below 50 bu. per acre,” he adds.

Current trade impacts from China are likely to play a role in the market as well.

“Market attitudes are really what’s going to carry this [market] because we have such big ending stocks currently,” Georgy says. “We need to remain focused on that. This report, as I said before, it’s only a stepping stone, continue watching headlines.”

Warming Planet Could Mean Bigger Corn Crops for U.S.

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:05:26 GMT

An alarming increase in global temperatures from Earth’s changing climate could bring an unexpected benefit for U.S. farmers who grow corn, the nation’s biggest crop.

While hotter weather generally threatens to sap crops of needed moisture, data from Midwest corn-growing states suggests the region will see warmer summers with more humidity, which would aid plant growth and yields, according to a study by Michigan State University researchers Bruno Basso and Joe Ritchie.

“The amount of water vapor in the air is gradually increasing,” Basso, the lead author of the study and a distinguished professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said in a statement. If the trend of the past half century extends for another 50 years, farmers in the Midwest may see bigger yields, he said.

The data showed daily low temperatures in warm summer months are rising but that high temperatures are cooling or unchanged, which means more humidity and less energy used in evaporation from the soil or leaves.

“Think of the energy balance like a bank account,” Basso said. “There are additions and subtractions. The energy coming from the sun is a known, measured quantity that adds to the bank account. The primary subtraction is liquid water from the crop, and soil using the solar energy to convert the water to vapor.”

The researchers used the energy balance to calculate the “evaporative water loss” of a record-yielding crop in Virginia, which isn’t a big producer of corn, compared with lower-yielding fields in the Midwest, the primary growing region. They found the rate of water used by evapotranspriation was the same, signaling the Virginia crop was more efficient and that there is reason for optimism that corn yields can continue to rise.

“The energy for evaporation is changing little, so if the number of days the crop grows and uses water is the same now and, in the future, the evaporation loss will be the same and slightly less,” Basso said. “In fact, the warmer temperatures allow the use of longer season hybrids that will make for even greater yield possibilities.”

Grain Exports On Track To Set New Record

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:08:33 GMT

U.S. exports of grain in all forms (GIAF) are on track to set a new record in 2017/2018, with two months of sales left to report, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and analysis by the U.S. Grains Council (USGC).

During the first 10 months of the marketing year (September 2017 to June 2018), the United States exported 98.3 million metric tons (38.7 billion bushels) of grain in all forms, up 2 percent year-over-year from last year’s record-setting pace.

The feed grains in all forms calculation helps capture how much of U.S. coarse grain production is actually used in the world market by including the corn equivalent of co-products like ethanol and distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) as well as beef, pork and poultry meat exports.

“GIAF exports is a fully-loaded accounting of the importance of exports to the livelihoods of U.S. coarse grain farmers and agribusinesses, particularly in a year of increased volatility and concern over retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products in multiple markets,” said Mike Dwyer, USGC chief economist. “U.S. GIAF exports could exceed 116 MMT (4.57 billion bushels) at the end of 2017/2018, up from last marketing year’s 114 MMT (4.49 billion bushels) and the second year in a row setting a new record high.”

That achievement would come despite a tumultuous trade environment, serving as a reminder of the resiliency of U.S. exports and of the quality and price competitiveness of U.S. coarse grains and co-products.

Trade with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries and neighbors, Mexico and Canada, has increased GIAF purchases by 3.7 percent and 12.6 percent year-over-year, respectively. In Mexico, corn sales are up 8.9 percent at nearly 12.4 MMT (488 million bushels), and DDGS sales are up 4.2 percent at 1.76 MMT. In Canada, corn imports have nearly doubled to 1.25 MMT (49.2 million bushels), and ethanol purchases are up slightly at nearly 270 million gallons year-to-date.

“GIAF exports to NAFTA partners could exceed 31 MMT (1.22 billion bushels) this marketing year - another record high that would account for 27 percent of worldwide GIAF sales,” Dwyer said. “Those sales signal the continued importance of the well-established supply chains and strong relationships the U.S. agricultural sector shares with both countries.”

Notably, GIAF exports to the European Union have also risen nearly 84 percent year-over-year to 3.78 MMT (149 million bushels) thus far in 2017/2018.

By sector, U.S. ethanol exports accounted for the lion’s share of the overall increase of GIAF exports in June, pushing exports up nearly 22 percent year-over-year to 1.36 billion gallons (12.2 MMT or 480 million bushels in grain equivalent), continuing a surprisingly strong pace of exports. As a result, the Council now believes ethanol exports could reach 1.6 billion gallons (14.4 MMT or 568 million bushels in grain equivalent), setting another new record.

Large customers including Brazil and India have continued to increase ethanol purchases, but other important trading partners including South Korea and Colombia have also realized large increases - up 41 percent and 194 percent year-over-year, respectively.

“The overall growth in ethanol exports showcases the increased focus of ethanol within the Council’s programming and the importance of exports of value-added products,” Dwyer said.

Overall corn, barley and sorghum exports remain down slightly year-over-year. But while corn exports are 1.4 percent lower than last marketing year at this time, USDA’s forecast of increased corn exports for the 2017/2018 marketing year signals the potential for a strong final two months of sales.

Key trading partners including Mexico and Colombia have also purchased larger volumes of U.S. corn compared to this time last marketing year, with both markets growing around 9 percent year-over-year. This export growth reaffirms that U.S. agriculture continues to benefit immensely from access to markets provided by free trade agreements.

“The release of the June numbers has provided some reassurance to producers roiled by tariffs and low prices throughout much of the marketing year,” Dwyer said. “The Council has continued to cultivate relationships with overseas buyers in decades-old markets and aggressively build new worldwide demand for corn, barley and sorghum farmers and the value-added industries they supply.”

Learn more about the feed grains in all forms calculation and dive into numbers by export market here .