WEATHER

Heads Up: Space Weather Could Disrupt GPS Signal This Week

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 15:41:46 GMT

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration has updated its expected arrival of a G4 severe geomagnetic storm. Initially expected to be observed June 2 to June 3, it’s now potentially ending earlier by June 2.

These space weather events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field and at this severe level cause “more frequent and longer periods of GPS degradation.”

“If you’re finished planting, have no spraying to do, or otherwise too wet to get into the field, this solar storm may not matter for production agriculture even for the most susceptible states,” says Terry Griffin with Kansas State University. “Given the time of year, several hundred thousand acres of peanuts are left to be planted in Georgia (74% planting progress as of last week). Without RTK (not just GPS but sub-inch accuracy RTK), a 11% yield penalty is known at planting due to uncertainty of AB line when digging, the topic of my current research. In Kansas, corn was 85% planted as of last week and most crops have been planted on schedule or ahead of the 5-year average, but spraying and other midseason operations are still vulnerable.”

He adds Kansas winter wheat harvest usually begins mid-June so it won’t be affected by this storm.

Are these events normal?

Griffin says accurately predicting solar storms is more difficult than terrestrial weather.
“One analogy is to think of predicting geomagnetic disturbances on Earth as compared to the familiar tornado season. We know that in Kansas every April and May we can expect tornadoes in our area; when we may have a tornado watch, sometimes a tornado warning, and less common for an individual homeowner to be directly affected by a tornado,” he says. “Geomagnetic disturbances are similar: every 11 years we should expect a variety of “watches” and “alerts” due to increased solar activity before quieting down for about the next seven years until activity ramps up again.”

However space weather brings an even greater level of uncertainty for what the precise impacts on Earth will be. Just because there’s activity measured from the sun, it doesn’t always arrive at Earth in a predictable pattern.

“Activity on the sun does not always arrive at the Earth, observed coronal mass ejections (CME) can go in the opposite direction or even be a “near miss”, just like a tornado,” he says. “Instruments can detect CMEs several minutes after they occur, and even when material is coming toward the Earth it may take a few days before we know if we’re being affected.”

What can farmers do?

“GNSS outages caused by solar storms should be expected to be the norm, at least during solar sunspot number maximums that occur about every 11 years,” Griffin says. “At the very least, farmers should expect GNSS outages associated with solar storms during sunspot maximum; spanning maybe three years of the 11 year cycle.”

Griffin says solar storms can occur any time of year, and he points to some historical evidence suggesting increased frequency of geomagnetic disturbances near the spring and fall equinoxes.

Farm Journal reached out to Griffin first thing Monday morning for an update. He said the solar storm “arrived a day early...it was moving really fast” and would likely be over by Monday afternoon. He did not hear from any farmers about GPS outages or issues with satellite lock on their farm equipment as of Monday morning.

NOAA did record a G4 level solar event in space occurring on Sunday, June 1, however, by Monday morning at 8:45 am EST it had weakened to a G1.

Griffin says farmers should check the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center hompage (www.swpc.noaa.gov) on a regular basis this summer before heading out to spray or do other field work.

“That May 10th event (last year) was not a once in a lifetime event,” Griffin warns. “We need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

The “next one” could happen anytime in the next 12 months, or not at all, he believes. Griffin says we’re in the middle of what some scientists call the “battle zone” of solar activity and the current conditions are expected to last for the next year. Once we get to next summer, Griffin says, scientists are projecting a “quiet period” for the next six or seven years before space weather and solar storms start to ramp back up in the early 2030s.

“The previous solar cycle we were in was really quiet, and the one we’re in right now is normal,” he says. “We need to be ready for these events.”

Warm, Rainy Weather Signals Return of Formidable Foe

Fri, 16 May 2025 13:39:07 GMT

The warmer weather, extra rain showers and spring season signal the return of a not-so-popular pest in the U.S. Yes, it’s time for the annual surge in the mosquito population.

Pork producers are urged to implement robust control strategies to reduce mosquito populations near swine farms and minimize potential production impacts, the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC) points out in its recent newsletter. The changes in environmental conditions, specifically during high rainfall seasons, often result in increased mosquito populations that can be a risk for emerging disease and other swine production challenges.

Through global disease monitoring by SHIC, awareness for mosquito control stems from the recent 2025 re-emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Australia. JEV, a mosquito-borne virus which has waterbirds as a natural reservoir host but is capable of infecting pigs, humans, and horses, can cause reproductive failure, delayed farrowing, stillbirths, mummified fetuses, abortions and weak piglets in swine breeding herds.

In February 2025 , JEV was reported at two piggeries in southern Queensland, Australia, marking the first detections of the virus in Australia commercial swine since July 2022. Although no cases were detected in piggeries during 2023 or 2024, this re-incursion of JEV into Australian piggeries requires close monitoring, SHIC says.

Detections in mosquito populations more recently in Goondiwindi, Inglewood, and Monto, as well as in mosquito and feral pig populations in New South Wales, have raised concerns about further potential spread of JEV, particularly with wet season conditions increasing mosquito activity.

“The U.S. is currently negative for JEV,” SHIC reports. “In December 2024, SHIC, along with the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research, funded six research projects to enhance U.S. prevention, preparedness, mitigation and response capabilities for JEV. Understanding the biology and lifecycle of mosquitos can aid in the development of mitigation and control strategies to reduce risks of pathogen transmission as well as improve swine health and welfare.”

Chris Rademacher, DVM and associate director of the Iowa Pork Industry Center, shared information with producers detailing mosquito control strategies in an August 2024 webinar hosted by SHIC.

“Effective environmental management includes diligent control of standing water, a breeding ground for larvae, and vegetation management around buildings, which serve as resting sites for mosquitoes,” Rademacher said. “Ventilation adjustments within barns can also play a crucial role in mosquito population control.”

He encouraged producers to consult with entomologists, who can offer expert pest identification and control strategies like site maintenance.

Site maintenance includes establishing rock barriers for proper water drainage around buildings, maintaining short grass, and controlling weeds around all production facilities. He urged producers to pay particular attention to curtain pockets, which can retain water. Operating stir fans at night during peak mosquito season in naturally ventilated barns and running tunnels at night in tunnel-ventilated barns can help mitigate mosquito populations within barns. Proper adjustment of misters, waterers and sprinklers is another important way to prevent water pooling in all barn types.

Chemical mitigation should be integrated into a comprehensive pest management strategy, with adult mosquito spraying considered the least effective component, SHIC says.

“Utilizing non-residual and residual sprays, with strict adherence to label instructions, is critical,” SHIC adds. “Fogging devices, employing oil or water-based pyrethrins, are recommended for adult mosquito infestations within buildings. Residual sprays should be applied to resting surfaces, not directly on animals. To mitigate resistance, rotating the mode of action groups of chemical mitigants is essential.”

Your Next Read: Japanese Encephalitis Virus: 6 New Projects That Could Advance Swine Health

Why Did the Ag Markets Fade China Trade Talk News?

Thu, 08 May 2025 15:02:00 GMT

Grain and livestock futures closed mostly lower on Friday.

It was a disappointing close considering the news that top trade officials from the U.S. and China were meeting in Geneva this weekend to de-escalate the trade war.

Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the markets faded the news as the realization set in that no major breakthroughs in the trade talks are expected and a long term trade deal with China could take quite some time.

President Donald Trump also said Wednesday he’s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations with Beijing on trade.

Weather was also a headwind for the corn and soybean markets with fast planting pace and more rain in the forecast for dry areas of the hard red winter wheat belt.

The market is also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer has confirmed they will start to consider the impact of tariffs in the new crop balance sheets.

“That could make these early estimates look a bit too friendly,” says Chatterton.

July corn made new lows for the move hitting chart resistance, failing and then testing triple bottom support on the charts at $4.51.

“It was a big outside day lower,” explains Chatterton, “And so tomorrow’s action will be important to see if there is further technical breakdown.”

Wheat has been an anchor for the corn market with improving crop conditions tied to recent rain.

Lower prices relative to corn are pushing wheat into the feed ration.

The higher dollar and lower crude oil markets were also bearish for the grain complex.

The FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected.

However, Chatterton says Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market was solid and inflation was still somewhat elevated, but the uncertainty in the economic outlook moving forward tied to tariffs.

Cattle futures saw a correction off of Tuesday’s new contract highs, despite higher cash trade.

So far business in the South, has ranged from $218 to $220, steady to $2 higher, with $219 paid on Wednesday.

So is this divergence a concern?

Chatterton calls it a healthy correction in a bull market that continues to be supported by cash and consumer demand with Choice beef values at two year highs.

Lean hogs also had a disappointing day, also fading at least slight progress on trade with China.

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:58 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

Your Next Read: It’s Okay to Celebrate Your Wins

Rain Drain: Farm Journal Readers Pummeled by Flooding, Page 2

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:31:17 GMT

Continued from page 1

Lower Mississippi River Basin

Arkansas-White-Red River Basin

Great Lakes Region

Pacific Northwest Region

Check out more flood maps at USGS.gov .

El Nino Coming Back?

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:12:06 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- La Nina is dead. Long live El Nino?

A weather pattern known as La Nina that has worsened drought conditions across the U.S. Great Plains has faded, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. But it could be replaced late this year by one called El Nino, which often roils agriculture and energy markets around the world.

La Nina and El Nino are the terms used for fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific that can cause large-scale changes to the global climate. Conditions are now neutral, though the potential for El Nino has increased, according to the center in College Park, Maryland.

“La Nina is gone,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster at the center. “We did not issue an El Nino watch because the probabilities are still not that high, but we wanted to at least notify folks there is a possibility.”

The problem facing meteorologists is forecast models about El Nino and La Nina aren’t very good at this time of year. Many predictions about El Nino and La Nina made in the Northern Hemisphere’s spring have fizzled in the past, L’Heureux said. But La Nina probably won’t be coming back for a third year, and the chance of an El Nino forming between November and January is 49 percent, up from 48 percent last month.

El Ninos, which occur when the ocean warms and the atmosphere reacts, can bring torrential rains to parts of South America, depress winter storm tracks through the U.S. and -- if they arrive early enough -- cut the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.

‘False Alarms’

“At this time of year the false alarms of some of these models is fairly high this has to be taken into consideration,” L’Heureux said, adding that it gets easier around July and August.

The last El Nino, one of the strongest on record, left farmers from Vietnam to Africa struggling with drought, triggered powerful Pacific typhoons and hurricanes and helped push the Earth into a series of its warmest years on record. There is a good pool of warm water across the Pacific, so if the atmosphere does edge toward El Nino “it has a good source to tap into,” L’Heureux said.

The La Nina that just ended probably did play a role in the drought across the lower Great Plains, which has damaged hard red winter wheat throughout the region, L’Heureux said. Almost 89 percent of Kansas is dealing with drought, while just under half of Texas and Oklahoma were also struggling as of May 1, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also said the Pacific is in its neutral state and will probably remain that way into September.

Copyright 2018, Bloomberg

USDA: Life-threatening Cold in Effect for the Corn Belt.

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:25:57 GMT

USDA’s Joint Ag Weather Facility says on the Plains, very cold weather prevails, with sub-zero temperatures noted from Kansas northward. “The frigid, breezy conditions are stressing livestock and resu lting in dangerously low wind chill temperatures,” USDA reports. Snow is providing some protection for winter wheat on the northern and central Plains, although coverage is patchy, USDA notes. “Current snow depths include 4 inches in Great Falls, Montana, and 2 inches in Wichita, Kansas,” it elaborates.

In the West, USDA says mild weather in California contrasts with near- to below-normal temperatures farther inland. “Dry weather prevails throughout the West, increasing concerns about summer water supplies in areas—such as California and the Great Basin—moving deeper into a third consecutive year of drought,” USDA explains.

In the Corn Belt, USDA says a life-threatening cold outbreak is underway. “This morning’s low temperatures generally ranged from -30°F in the far upper Midwest to near 0°F in the Ohio Valley,” USDA explains. Gusty winds accompany the bitter cold, resulting in dangerously low wind chill temperatures, USDA adds. “In the eastern Corn Belt, a deep snow cover is insulating winter wheat, but blowing and drifting s now is stressing livestock and hampering travel,” according to USDA.

In the South, USDA reports an Arctic cold front is crossing the Atlantic Coast states, accompanied by a few rain showers. “In the front’s wake, hard freeze warnings are in effect this morning from eastern Texas into the central Gulf Coast region,” USDA continues. However, temperatures remain above freezing in Deep South Texas and across Florida’s peninsula, USDA adds.

In its outlook, USDA says dangerously cold weather from the Plains to the East Coast will lose its punch as the week progresses. “Today will feature the Midwest’s harshest cold, followed on Tuesday by the East’s lowest temperatures,” USDA explains. On Jan. 7, sub-zero temperatures can be expected again as far south as the Ozark Plateau, with readings below 0°F also likely in the Appalachians, USDA elaborates. Frigid weather will persist through mid-week in the upper Midwest, where readings below -30°F will linger through Jan. 8, USDA continues. “Rapid warming will occur during the second half of the week, with above-normal temperatures expected in the eastern half of the U.S. by Jan. 10,” USDA reports. Significant precipitation will be scarce, except in the Northeast (today) and Northwest (starting tomorrow), USDA explains.

Pro Farmer's Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:24:03 GMT

Grain futures are set for a stronger start on help from outside markets. The U.S. dollar index is weaker this morning and the stock market is stronger. Meanwhile, some areas of Brazil received rains over the weekend, but hot and dry conditions are stressing the crop there. Check this link to hear the “Monday Morning Wake Up Call” provided by your Pro Farmer Editors.

If you would like to receive this message on your phone, go to this link to sign up.

First Thing Today: Cool Temps Expected Across Nation's Midsection, with Varied Precip

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Firmer tone for corn and beans to close the overnight session... Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher after holding to a narrow range overnight. Soybeans faced pressure earlier in the overnight session, but the market is currently trading high-range and steady to fractionally higher. SRW wheat futures are around a penny lower, while HRW and HRS wheat are narrowly mixed. The U.S. dollar index and crude oil futures are both marginally higher.

Cool temps expected across nation’s midsection, with varied precip... The National Weather Service Outlook for May 29 to June 2 calls for cool conditions across the Corn Belt and Plains, with varied precipitation. Wet weather is expected across the Central and Southern Plains, and much of the eastern Corn Belt. Dry conditions are likely for much of the western Belt. Cool temps signal it will take time for soils to dry out enough for farmers to return to the fields after recent rains. But so far this season, they have done a good job aggressively planting in between showers.

Moody’s cuts China’s credit rating... Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating on China’s debt for the first time since 1989, saying the outlook for its financial strength will worsen. It raised some concern Chinese firms may face higher overseas borrowing costs, forcing them to raise more financing at home and squeeze market liquidity. Moody’s also cited the likelihood of a “material rise” in economy-wide debt and the burden that will place on the state’s finances, while also changing the outlook to stable from negative. China’s Ministry of Finance said Moody’s downgrade was “absolutely groundless” and the ratings company underestimates the government’s ability to deepen reform and boost demand.

Perdue to appear before House ag appropriators... Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue will appear before House ag appropriators this morning, where he will field questions about President Donald Trump’s budget proposal that included steep cuts to farm subsidies. Questions will also likely arise regarding USDA’s recent reorganization and how the budget proposals impact the plan. The focus in part will be on rural development changes.

Wet weather causing problems for Canadian growers... Heavy rains are in the forecast for the Canadian Prairies provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan today and tomorrow, which will likely extend delays planting the nation’s canola and other spring crops. Concerns about the delays are mounting given that crop insurance planting deadlines lie in the near future. This comes after soggy conditions from fall into spring prevented farmers from harvesting all of their canola and wheat crops.

Turkey again limiting imports of some Russian commodities... Turkey is again restricting imports of wheat from Russia, possibly in response to remaining limits on supplies of some vegetables from Turkey to Russia, according to a Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The state news agency RIA reports Turkey has also introduced quotas limiting sunflower oil imports.

Bunge shoots down talks of a merger with Glencore... Yesterday, reports circulated that Glencore Plc, the Swiss mining and commodities group, had made a takeover approach to U.S. grains trader Bunge Ltd. No such talks are underway, Bunge said in response to the rumors. Glencore also clarified that it had made an informal approach to discuss “a possible consensual business combination.”

Online auction to provide cash direction... Traders will watch today’s online Fed Cattle Exchange auction for some additional cash market insight. Last week, the average top price at the auction was $135.16, which led to cash action on the Plains mostly falling in a range from $133 to $135. Futures are trading well below those prices, signaling traders’ bias. But packers are enjoying wide profit margins of more than $150 a head and showlist numbers are down sharply this week.

Packers up bids as pork movement surges... Cash hog bids strengthened on Tuesday, signaling that some packers may still be in need of supplies for this weekend’s kill and/or that they are buying ahead. This week’s kill is running a bit ahead of week-ago and around 8,000 head in advance of year-ago as packers’ strong profit margins give them plenty of reason to keep kill lines full. Also of note, pork movement was impressive yesterday at 401.97 loads, despite pork prices nearing the $90.00 per cwt. mark.

Overnight demand news... Jordan made no purchase in its tender to buy 100,000 MT of milling wheat. Japan’s ag ministry received no offers in its simultaneous buy and sell auction to buy 200,000 MT of feed barley and 120,000 MT of feed wheat.

Today’s reports:

9:30 a.m., Weekly Ethanol Production -- EIA
2:00 p.m., Broiler Hatchery -- NASS

First Thing Today: Meteorologists Call for Active Hurricane Season

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Quiet overnight session... Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher after trading in a narrow, two-sided trading range overnight. Soybean futures are mostly down 2 cents, which is off session lows. Winter wheat futures are mixed, while spring wheat is up a penny. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower, as are crude oil futures.

Meteorologists call for active hurricane season... There is a 70% chance of seeing between 11 and 17 named tropical storms for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said yesterday. This would be more such storms than normal for the six-month period that begins June 1. Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator, details that five to nine of the storms could become hurricanes, including two to four major ones with winds of at least 111 miles per hour. In a normal season, there is typically an average of 12 tropical storms and six hurricanes, including three major ones.

Australia shipping grain at a record clip... Australia has been shipping a record volume of grain this year, thanks to record- to near-record crops that have pushed down prices. For the first five months of the year, wheat, canola and barley exports of 17.2 MMT are up 60% from normal, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon data. Thanks to aggressive exports, industry sources believe the country will still be left with just 5 MMT to 6 MMT of wheat at the end of the marketing year, which would be similar to last year’s stocks. But looking ahead to the second half of 2017, competition from the Black Sea region is expected to heighten as big crops from Russia and Ukraine move into position.

Report notes major growth potential for U.S. exports to China... China would like to increase imports of ag products like soybeans and cotton from the U.S. and speed up talks on traceability, inspection and quarantine for U.S. beef to enter China, according to a report on China-U.S. Economic and Trade relations issued by its ministry of commerce. It called for China’s total imports from the U.S. to reach $8 trillion in the next five years.

Chinese users continue to aggressively scoop up corn at auctions... China sold 233,660 MT of the 2011 and 2012 crop corn it put up for auction from its state reserves at an average price of 1,155 yuan ($168.34) per metric ton. This represents 94.75% of the grain available for those years at the auction. China also sold more than 2.103 MMT of 2013 crop corn at the auction, which was 91.47% of what was available for that year. That grain sold at an average price of 1,383 yuan ($201.57) per metric ton.

China may change how it calculates the daily reference rate for the yuan... China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate, adding a “counter cyclical factor” to the fixing, in a move that would be designed to reduce exchange-rate volatility. The measures seem to suggest that policy makers are going cold on the idea of an eventual float of the currency, with officials more interested in avoiding turmoil in domestic markets than embracing free-market principles.

Accident leads to temporary closure of ADM export terminal... Archer Daniels Midland Co.'s grain export terminal in Ama, Louisiana had to be closed Thursday after a barge-mounted crane hit a conveyer belt system, causing damage. ADM is working to shift export operations to its other three terminals along the Louisiana Gulf Coast while damage is assessed and repaired.

Cattle on Feed expected to show all major categories up from year-ago... In its Cattle on Feed Report, traders expect USDA to report the number of cattle on feed stood near 10.864 million head as of May 1, up 0.8% from year-ago. Placements are expected to come in around 106.8% of year-ago levels, with marketings at 101.8% of last year’s levels. Note that the report will be released early -- at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Cash cattle trade picks up... Cattle futures posted strong gains Thursday as traders noted the wide discount futures hold to some early, lower cash cattle trade. More active trade took place in Kansas around $132, in Nebraska at $133 and in Iowa at prices ranging from $130 to $134 yesterday, which is still well above where futures are trading.

Trend remains up in hog market... Cash hog bids strengthened yesterday, giving traders a reason to push futures higher. While the market is technically overbought, momentum clearly remains on the side of market bulls. And traders are optimistic cash market strength will continue after Memorial Day given seasonally tightening supplies, strong packer profit margins and ideas retailers will feature pork after the holiday.

Overnight demand news... A group of animal feed makers in the Philippines issued an international tender to buy up to 50,000 MT of soymeal from South America. South Korea bought around 65,000 MT of feed wheat from optional origins, which is expected to be sourced mainly from the Black Sea region. Japan purchased 79,930 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S. as well as 37,870 MT from Australia.

Today’s reports:

11:00 a.m., Cattle on Feed -- NASS

First Thing Today: Hot, Dry Conditions Stoke Crop Concerns on Northern Plains

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Choppy to lower trade overnight... Corn futures are steady to fractionally lower after a quiet overnight session. Old-crop soybeans are narrowly mixed, with new-crop marginally higher. HRW wheat futures are 2 cents lower, SRW is fractionally lower, and HRS is posting losses of 1 to 3 cents. The U.S. dollar index is off to a firmer start, while crude oil futures are down slightly.

Hot, dry conditions add to drought concerns in Northern Plains... Temps were warm across the nation’s midsection over the weekend, topping the 100-degree mark in South Dakota. And rainfall was erratic, with the heaviest precip falling in Texas and the Gulf Coast area. This raises concerns about the spread of drought across the Dakotas impacting the spring wheat crop. More dry conditions are expected for much of the Midwest this week, with the exception of a few showers from central Illinois to Ohio. The National Weather Service forecast for June 10-14 calls for warm temps across the Plains and the Midwest. The Upper Midwest is expected to be wet, with dry conditions likely for the rest of the Plains and Corn Belt.

U.S. may also face competition from Argentine corn this fall... Rains have slowed harvest efforts and wiped out roads in Argentina, which is working to bring in its biggest corn crop on record. This may push back the country’s corn export season past August, adding to what is already expected to be a fierce export battle between the U.S. and Brazil. Typically, Argentina ships the bulk of its corn crop between March and July. Pablo Adreani, an Argentine farmer and crop analyst cited by Reuters, estimates that around “8 MMT of Argentine corn will compete with Brazil and the U.S. in the July through October period.”

U.S., Mexican trade officials close to agreement on sugar trade... A U.S./Mexico accord could be announced today, the deadline for current trade talks, Mexican Sugar Chamber President Juan Cortina told told several media outlets. Any deal would hold back antidumping and countervailing duties in exchange for restrictions on what Mexican producers can export to the U.S. Recent talks have been limited to government officials, with regular talks between Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal. If U.S. tariffs are imposed, Mexican sugar producers have been pressuring their government to put in place steep retaliatory duties on imports of U.S. corn syrup. Guajardo late last week said the positions between the two countries have moved closer.

Congress returns with White House infrastructure plans being major focus... Lawmakers return from their Memorial Day recess, with budget-related hearings the primary congressional topic. It is infrastructure week at the White House, starting with “legislative principles” President Donald Trump will sign today outlining his vision for Congress to split air traffic control operations away from the FAA. The document states that “the new entity “must maintain access and services to rural communities and general aviation users” but doesn’t provide details. Trump will highlight his vision for other transportation modes like roads, rail and inland waterways throughout the week in trips to Ohio and Kentucky. He will speak on rural infrastructure Wednesday along the Ohio River and will visit Department of Transportation headquarters on Friday to talk about the federal permitting process.

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue travels to Canada today... The trip is the ag secretary’s first international trip in his new post. He will be in Toronto, Canada and will meet with Canadian Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Lawrence MacAulay and other Canadian officials to discuss priority agricultural issues regarding Canada and the U.S. In 2016, the U.S. exported $20.2 billion of ag products to Canada, making it our second-largest ag export market, while Canada exported $21 billion of farm products to the U.S.

Global growth forecasts unchanged... The World Bank kept its outlook for the global economy unchanged, forecasting a modest pickup in growth despite uncertainty about monetary policy and the risk of trade conflicts. The lender projects the world economy will grow by 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2018, the same as its January forecast.

OMB meets today with farm, other groups on WOTUS rule... Office of Management and Budget officials today will meet with representatives of the American Farm Bureau Federation and other groups to discuss the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to replace the Obama administration’s “waters of the United States” (WOTUS) rule. OMB is conducting a federal interagency review of the EPA’s rule-making process. OMB last week met with a coalition of conservation groups about the topic.

CFTC data reflects bearish attitudes... Bearish attitudes are quite bearish across many grain and oilseed markets, according to the latest Commodities Futures Trading Commission data. Money managers extended their record short position in the soy complex (soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil) to 156,123 futures and options contracts the week ending May 30. When considering the seven grain and oilseeds markets, hedge funds now have the second most bearish stance on record at 462,667 futures and options contracts, due primarily to a boost in bearish corn positions.

Market hopeful China will lift ban on U.S. poultry... Upcoming visits by Chinese officials to the U.S. have raised hopes the country will cancel its ban on U.S. poultry imports. The ban has been in effect since 2015, when the U.S. dealt with its worst bird flu outbreak on record. Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry & Egg Export council, said that representatives with China’s ag ministry and animal quarantine and inspection service will visit U.S. poultry facilities and learn how producers fight avian flu next month. Another Chinese delegation will come in September, he added. Besides the obvious benefits a resumption of trade would have for the poultry sector, this would also support feed demand.

Canada surpasses the U.S. in pork shipments to China for first quarter... Canadian pork exports to China at 93,000 MT topped the U.S.'s 87,500 MT in shipments for the first quarter of 2017, according to data from both nations. This has happened just a few times over the past 20 years. Chinese demand for pork is on the rise, plus stricter environmental rules in China have reduced pork production there and increased demand for cheaper imports. Canada has nearly removed the growth drug ractopamine from pigs’ diet because the substance is banned in China. In contrast, only around half of the U.S. herd is produced without ractopamine.

Cattle futures overbought, but more upside possible... While the trend in the cattle market is pointed higher, futures have climbed into overbought territory, signaling some profit-taking may lie ahead. That said, futures remain at a discount to to last week’s $135 to $137 cash cattle trade and marketings are extremely current, which has boosted feedlots’ bargaining power.

Hogs still pointed higher... Momentum remains on the side of market bulls in the lean hog market based on its technical posture. Plus, strong profit margins, seasonally tightening supplies and gains in the pork cutout value have helped keep the cash market pointed higher.

Weekend demand news... There is no business to report.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
10:00 a.m., Livestock and Meat International Trade Data -- ERS
2:00 p.m., U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Dairy Products -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS