Vietnam

Trade Dominance or Trade Domino? Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:22:27 GMT

Less than a week before the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs with several countries is set to expire, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday. The deal, according to Trump, allows the U.S. “total access” to Vietnam’s markets with a zero tariff on U.S. products exported to Vietnam.

A deal with Vietnam could benefit U.S. commodities that face higher tariffs, including fruits, nuts, pork and beef exports.

The president made the announcement on his Truth Social site, saying Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on any goods sent into the U.S. and a 40% tariff on any goods that originate in another country and then are transferred to Vietnam before coming to the U.S.

🚨 pic.twitter.com/i35oMvbEvW
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 2, 2025

When trade talks started with Vietnam last month, Vietnamese officials had pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. However, no specific trade volumes were announced with the trade deal.

What’s the potential for agriculture? Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says this could help gain greater access for fruits, nuts and horticulture products, which have tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, versus corn, soybeans and soybean meal.

“In the case of corn and soybeans and meal and wheat, we’re talking about tariffs today that are 1% to 2%, that’ll go to zero, so it’s something, don’t get me wrong, it’s 5¢ or 10¢ in a bushel of corn, maybe 7¢ to 12¢ on beans, but it is not the panacea that’s going to get a lot of Vietnamese demand going forward,” Basse says.

The trade deal came as a bit of a surprise on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that while the focus of the administration is getting the One Big Beautiful Bill across the finish line this week, that focus shifts back to trade next week. Bessent warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a deadline approaches.

Is this trade deal the start of a domino of trade deals that could fall ahead of next week’s deadline? It’s possible, but Stand Grain’s Joe Vaclavik says many more are needed to shift the sentiment in the commodity market to a bullish tone.

“Get a trade deal with China that mirrors Phase One, that includes large purchase agreements, then it’s a game changer,” Vaclavik says. “But anything less than that, as of right now, I don’t think is going be a market mover or a game changer from a supply and demand standpoint.”

Vaclavik agrees with Basse, in that Vietnam alone isn’t a huge demand story for corn and soybeans.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of these announcements like with Vietnam where it sounds great, but Vietnam consumed 16 million metric tons of corn last year. That’s not enough to really put them on the map as something that’s going to move the market. You need a China, a country who consumes 300 million metric tons of corn per year to come in and agree to agree and also agree to buy. And that’s how you move the needle.”

Push for More Protein?

Protein exports are also an area of opportunity. U.S. dairy exports have shown strong growth into Vietnam, with increases in nonfat dry milk powder, whey, and lactose.

As for meat exports, figures from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) show shipments to Vietnam in 2024 included:

5,052 metric tons of beef and beef variety meat valued at $43 million
and 4,662 metric tons of pork and variety meat with a value of $10 million.

The U.S. current ranks fifth in top exporters to Vietnam, but it’s key to note the U.S. is the largest trading partner with Vietnam that does not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). With talks of tariff reductions, it could hep make U.S. pork more competitively priced compared to big competitors like Brazil, the European Union and Canada. Those countries currently have duty-free access to Vietnam.

The current tariff rates vary by product, including:

Chilled beef carcass/ ½ carcass: 30%
Chilled beef bone-in: 20%
Chilled beef boneless: 14%,
Frozen beef bone-in/frozen carcass 20%
Frozen boneless beef: 14%
Chilled pork: 22%
Frozen pork: 10%
Offal: 8%.

Fact sheet on meat exports to Vietnam

(USMEF )

Vietnam’s Growing Population

Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook visited Vietnam earlier this year and saw firsthand the potential growth. Vietnam has a 100 million people and a growing middle class looking to add protein to their diet. With limited soybean crushing capacity, the country currently depends on soybean meal imports for their livestock and aquaculture feed needs.

She reports the country’s soy processing industry is small with only four plants, which import 2 million tons of soybeans annually, including from the U.S. According to Rook’s reporting, that could be an area where soybean exports could grow, fueling Vietnam’s growing aquaculture and livestock production.

You can read and watch Rook’s in-depth reporting here .

Vietnam Live Pig Prices Rise After Floods Hit Farms

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 13:31:06 GMT

Live pig prices in Vietnam have risen steadily since Typhoon Yagi and subsequent flooding affected several pig farms in the country, which has already been hit by African swine fever outbreaks in recent years.

The typhoon, the strongest storm to hit Asia this year, made landfall in Vietnam’s northern provinces early this month, killing nearly 300 people and causing 60.7 trillion dong ($2.47 billion) of damage to properties, according to the government’s disaster agency.

More than 22,500 farmed animals, including pigs, and more than three million poultry have been killed, the agency said.

Live pig prices rose into a range of between 65,000 dong and 70,000 dong ($2.46-$2.85) per kilogram on Thursday in northern provinces, according to data from a Ministry of Industry and Trade newspaper, up from 64,000-67,000 dong before the typhoon and 55,000-58,000 dong a year ago.

“The floods might have also disrupted pork supply chains and prompted some traders to raise their live pig prices,” said Nguyen Xuan Duong, chairman of the Animal Husbandry Association of Vietnam.

“However, we are not seeing a pork crisis yet as the typhoon impacts are temporary,” Duong said, noting that the number of pigs killed is small compared with the country’s hog herd of around 28 million.

The government said in July that African swine fever outbreaks were spreading in Vietnam and could affect its food supplies and put upward pressure on inflation.

“The outbreaks remain today,” Duong said, without giving further details.

($1 = 24,588 dong)
(Reporting by Khanh Vu; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

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U.S. Rejects Vietnam’s Bid for ‘Market Economy’ Status in Blow to Trade Ties

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 13:00:47 GMT

The U.S. rejected Vietnam’s bid for ‘market economy’ status in blow to trade ties. The classification would have boosted exports and reduced tariffs on goods from country that is rising supply chain alternative to China.

The U.S. Department of Commerce cited several reasons for maintaining Vietnam’s classification as a “non-market economy” (NME):
• State intervention: Despite economic reforms, the U.S. Commerce Department noted that there is still extensive government involvement in Vietnam’s economy. This includes control over pricing, currency, and trade practices, which distort market prices and costs.
• Anti-dumping concerns: The NME status allows the U.S. to use prices and costs from third countries to calculate anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese imports. This practice is used to counteract what the U.S. sees as unfair trade advantages stemming from Vietnam’s economic structure.

The Decision has Several Consequences:

• Tariffs and duties: Without market economy status, Vietnamese goods are subject to higher anti-dumping duties, making them less competitive in the U.S. market.
• Investor uncertainty: The rejection introduces uncertainty for foreign investors, potentially impacting foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam.
• Negotiation power: Vietnam may find it challenging to negotiate favorable tariff rates and trade terms with the U.S.

The U.S. remains cautious about Vietnam’s economic practices and the potential for Chinese companies to use Vietnam as a backdoor to circumvent U.S. tariffs.

The Vietnamese government expressed regret over the decision, highlighting the positive economic reforms and policy commitments it has made. Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade argued that the upgrade would have been a fair recognition of these efforts.

Vietnam Pig Farmers in Crisis: It's Not Over Yet

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 15:32:48 GMT

Pork is a main staple in Vietnam, and many families raise pigs for their livelihood. Prior to 2017, pigs went for a good price and everyone wanted to raise pigs with a hope that their lives would improve, a Vietnam news agency reports. Unfortunately, this rush led to the biggest oversupply crisis in the history of this country’s livestock sector at the same time as a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.

To stop the price falls and settle oversupply, a pork rescue campaign was organized, VietNamNet reports. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) organized meetings, sent dispatches to the Prime Minister to ask for help and called for consumers to prioritize buying pork to help farmers overcome difficulties.

The country also enforced temporary measures to restrict the development of the herds of pigs and stop imports. The measures helped and the pork price began recovering in late 2017.

But the crisis resulted in 900,000 farming households that had to stop farming. Many of them incurred big losses and went bankrupt. However, the biggest hit took place in February 2019 when African swine fever (ASF) struck and spread to 63 cities and provinces within six months. About 6 million pigs were culled which caused a loss of $511 million. In many areas, pig farming was nearly eliminated, despite state support, the article said.

During this time, a supply shortage occurred, pushing pork prices up. The prices escalated and hit unprecedented highs. Another rescue campaign was organized, but to force prices down this time. MARD requested to repopulate pigs and allowed imports of frozen pork and live pigs from Thailand for domestic slaughtering, VietNamNet reports.

The General Department of Customs reports that in 2020, Vietnam imported 141,140 tons of pork, an increase of 382% over 2019. The country also imported 450,000 pigs from Thailand.

In early 2021, the livestock industry said it could supply enough pork. However, the fourth outbreak of COVID-19 led to a disruption of the pork supply chain, resulting in a sharp fall in pork demand which caused the pork price to tumble once again.

MARD then estimated that the number of oversized, unsold pigs was in the millions.

Farmers still hoped that when the lockdowns were lifted, the pig prices would bounce back. But when Vietnam returned to its “new normal,” the pig prices continued to slide, VietNamNet reports.

In July 2022, prices rose for a short time before falling down again. High feed prices have exacerbated problems. Today, import tariffs for most input materials to make animal feed have been lowered to zero percent. Still experts say the crisis in the hog sector in Vietnam is not over.

Read More:

A Competitive Advantage And Diversified Demand, U.S. Pork And Beef Exports Find Opportunity

An ASF Vaccine Status in Vietnam Update

2022: Groundwork for Success

African Swine Fever Update: Vietnam on Path to Recovery

It’s Time to Close Every Window to Keep the U.S. Swine Herd Safe

U.S. Meat Product Showcase Connects Exporters with Southeast Asian Importers

Wed, 19 Oct 2022 20:41:12 GMT

U.S. red meat suppliers met face-to-face with buyers from the Philippines and Vietnam at the U.S. Meat Products Showcase, adding a personal connection between U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) members and exporters with importers and processors in the southeast Asian region.

Originally slated for 2020, the USMEF event, along with USDA, the National Pork Board and the Beef Checkoff Program support, was delayed due to COVID restrictions. However, Dave Rentoria, USMEF representative in the Philippines, says now is a great time to bring the importers and suppliers together as the economies rebound and events are allowed at full capacity.

“The marketplace has changed in the past two years, not only because of COVID, but also because the Philippines has reduced tariffs on imported pork, because of the impact of African swine fever has had on the domestic supply,” says John Herath, USMEF’s communications director.

Because of the reduced tariff, from 30% to 5%, and increased minimum access volume or the quota, Rentoria says the Philippines has increased their importation of pork. U.S. pork export values increased by 26%, with a 78% increase in the Philippines alone from 2020 to 2021.

Rentoria adds, “This is a good opportunity for us to also tap [the importers] and inform them of the qualities or attributes about U.S. pork.”

Seen as an area with tremendous growth potential, the U.S. Meat Products Showcase aimed to further support the goal of increasing red meat exports in the southeast Asian countries, highlighting the quality and diverse product offerings found in U.S. meat.

Brazil's BRF Approved to Export Pork from Mato Grosso to Vietnam

Sat, 26 Mar 2022 21:00:00 GMT

Brazilian meatpacker BRF SA BRFS3.SA, the largest producer of animal protein and largest exporter of poultry in Brazil, was authorized by Vietnam to export pork from a Mato Grosso plant. It plans to double its shipments to the Asian country.

This move will allow BRF to grow in a strategic geographic market, Reuters reports. This is in line with the company’s plan to increase its relevance in major global consumer centers.

In 2021, Vietnam was the fifth main destination for Brazilian pork, importing more than 45,000 metric tons or pork which accounts for 4% of total Brazilian exports, government data said.

A BRF company executive told Reuters that the expectation is that meat consumption in Southeast Asia will grow significantly in the coming years and they want to be ready to meet this demand.

BRF currently exports pork to Vietnam from a plant in Uberlandia, in Minas Gerais State, which received authorization last year.

Now, with the additional authorization of the Mato Grosso plant, the company plans to sell pork cuts that include shoulder, ribs, chops, loin and ham.

BRF pointed out that it is advancing in the high-value pork segment, Reuters reports. It’s one of the important paths in its Vision 2030 project, in which the company intends to reach annual revenue exceeding $21 billion in the next 10 years.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Peter Frontini; Editing by Leslie Adler, Bernard Orr)

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African Swine Fever Update: Vietnam on Path to Recovery

Tue, 18 May 2021 13:30:00 GMT

Vietnam’s pork production is on a rapid path to recovery, USDA said in its most recent Foreign Agricultural Service Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report . In 2020, the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in Vietnam caused a loss of about 86,000 pigs or 1.5% of the culled pigs in 2019. Although ASF outbreaks continue to recur, most of them are sporadic, small-scale and quickly contained.

Official statistics show that the total pig herd in Vietnam was 27.3 million head as of December 2020, equivalent to about 88.7% of the pre-ASF level.

“Although the recovery of Vietnam’s swine industry is underway, it has not reached the pre-ASF level, as ongoing challenges with ASF remain,” the report said. “Vietnam’s pork production is predicted to continue to recover in 2021, leading to lower demand for imports of pork and pork products than in 2020.”

Growing Swine Population
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO), data showed that in Q1 of 2021, the swine population increased by 11.6% relative to the same period in 2020. The output of liveweight pork produced in Q1 was estimated at 1.02 million metric tons, up 7.5% over the same period last year.

In 2020, Vietnam imported 43,806 breeder pigs (including 1,219 boars) with 79% from Thailand, with the remaining from Canada, U.S., Denmark, France and Taiwan. For the first time ever, Vietnam allowed imports of live pigs from Thailand for raising/slaughtering beginning June 2020, to make up for the domestic pork shortages.

Vietnam’s pig herd is expected to reach about 28.5 million head, with sow numbers at 2.8 to 2.9 million head by 2025. The report indicated Vietnam aims to reduce the proportion of pigs and increase the proportion of poultry and cattle in its livestock herd structure. By 2025, meat and poultry production is forecast to reach 5.0 to 5.5 million metric tons, with pork accounting for 63% to 65%.

According to Rabobank’s March 2021 report, Vietnam’s pork production output will increase by 8% to 12% year-on-year. Given the current ASF developments, some industry analysts predict Vietnam’s swine herd cannot fully recover from ASF until after 2025.

A Wave of New Investments
Still, the report showed that in 2020, Vietnam witnessed an unprecedented wave of investments in the livestock sector in general and in swine production in particular.

Examples include New Hope’s three pork farms in Binh Dinh, Binh Phuoc, and Thanh Hoa provinces with a total capacity of 27,000 sows; the strategic co-operation between De Heus Group (Netherlands) and Hung Nhon Group to develop a network of large-scale breeding projects in the Central Highlands; Japfa Comfeed Vietnam Co., Ltd.’s hi-tech hog farm in Binh Phuoc Province with a capacity of 130,000 finishers a year (equivalent to about 140,000 MT of pork meat), and Masan Meatlife’s slaughtering and processing complex in Long An Province with an annual capacity of 140,000 MT.

“Of note, THADI - a subsidiary of one of Vietnam’s leading automakers Truong Hai Auto Corporation THACO - emerged as a new player in the agriculture sector, investing in hi-tech breeder pig farms in An Giang and Binh Dinh provinces with a capacity of 1.2 million hogs a year,” the report said. “Vietnam’s leading steel maker, Hoa Phat Group, also invested in developing FarmFeed-Food (3F) value chain and in farms nationwide to supply parent breeder pigs, commercial breeder pigs, hi-quality hogs with a goal of supplying 500,000 commercial pigs a year to the market.”

ASF Challenges Continue
ASF is more in control at the moment in Vietnam, but the report notes challenges remain to reach pre-ASF pork productions levels.

“The transportation and trading of pigs is still not strictly controlled, creating opportunities for ASF outbreaks. Some small-scale pig-raising households in the central part of Vietnam have dumped pig carcasses into unsecure locations, including rivers and canals, which are close to heavily inhabited areas, raising the risk of further spread of the disease,” the report said.

The rate of repopulation is expected to accelerate, mainly in industrial swine operations, where investments in large-scale, high-technology and vertically integrated swine farming operations have driven swine herd recovery and expansion.

Although pork prices are trending down, hog prices are expected to remain higher than pre-ASF levels throughout 2021, given the rising livestock input prices (e.g. feed, breeder pigs) and ongoing ASF outbreaks.

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Pork Feast in Vietnam Spurs Monsanto GM Corn Bid

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:27:14 GMT

Vietnam plans to sow genetically modified crops for the first time as demand for corn to fatten hogs expands in the country where pork consumption climbed 80 percent in the past decade.

The Ministry of Agriculture approved four traits for food and feed use in August. Dekalb Vietnam Co., a unit of St Louis, Missouri-based Monsanto Co., the world’s largest seed company, expects to commercialize two of them as soon as regulatory requirements are met, Nguyen Hong Chinh, head of corporate affairs, said by e-mail on Oct. 22.

The country will probably consume more pork per person than China and the European Union by the end of the decade, according to a government study. That’s driving demand for corn imports that have more than quadrupled in three years, ministry data show. The majority of shipments this year are from Argentina and Brazil where they already grow gene-modified corn. China, the world’s most populous country, is also promoting GM varieties.

“We’ve imported U.S. and South American corn and there must have been gene-modified grain in those shipments,” said Le Ba Lich, president of the Vietnam Animal Feed Association in Hanoi. “It makes sense to start producing it here.”

Vietnam will consume 33 kilograms (73 pounds) of pork per person by 2020, more than 32.6 kilograms in China and 31.3 kilograms in the EU, data on the website of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development show. Vietnam was the world’s third-largest user last year with 27.4 kilograms.

The country will import 4.5 million metric tons of corn this year, the ministry said in a statement in August. That’s more than double the 2.19 million tons in 2013 and is up from 972,000 tons in 2011, government data show. The crop will rise only 1.4 percent to 5.27 million tons in 2014, they show.

Higher Incomes

Food consumption is increasing as living standards rise. Incomes expanded almost fourfold in the past decade to $1,896 per person in 2013, the International Monetary Fund estimates, while the country’s gross domestic product quadrupled to more than $170 billion, according to World Bank data.

Gene-altered corn may meet resistance from consumers like Pham Phuong Anh, a 30-year-old office worker in Hanoi.

“Of course I’ll be concerned if the food I eat is directly or indirectly from GM products,” said Anh as she was buying pork in a market. “Why would I want to take the risk?”

While the Union of Concerned Scientists, a U.S.-based non- profit advocacy group, says GM crops have the potential to affect health and the environment, Monsanto says the broad consensus among scientists who have looked closely at GM plants is that they are as safe as any other crop. The World Health Organization says such foods on the international market have passed safety assessments and aren’t likely to present risks.

Field Trials

One Monsanto trait, which is resistant to insects, has a bio-safety certificate from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the other, a herbicide-resistant trait, is in the final stage of getting one, Chinh said.

The company has to meet other regulatory requirements such as field trials and a review by a third party, Chinh said. The process will probably take at least six months and the products should be ready for sale late next year or in 2016, he said.

The two other traits approved by the agriculture ministry have been developed by Basel, Switzerland-based Syngenta AG, the ministry said. Le Thi Khanh Hoa, head of external affairs at the local unit in Vietnam, declined to comment.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of corn after the U.S. and the largest importer of soybeans, has begun a campaign to promote GM grain as it seeks to expand food supplies. While no domestic grain crops are bioengineered now, President Xi Jinping has endorsed the technology used to boost output.

Economic Value

Only 27 countries planted gene-modified crops in 2013, data from the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications show, while at least 60 have labeling requirements, including Japan, Brazil and the EU, according to the Center for Food Safety.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines already plants gene-altered corn. Some 750,000 hectares of the 1.2 million hectares of yellow corn harvested this year were a GM variety, government data show. Yields average seven tons per hectare compared with three tons from traditional seeds, they show.

How fast farmers in Vietnam adopt such varieties will depend on prices, yields, and their economic value compared with other crops, said Lich from the animal feed association.

“Our farmers are very sensible when it comes to choosing what to plant,” said Vo Tong Xuan, principal of Nam Can Tho University, and an agriculture specialist. “They will adopt the new varieties if they are indeed more profitable.”