U.S. Farm Report

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:10:02 GMT

The fertilizer market has been a growing point of tension in agriculture for years, but USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says recent meetings in Washington marked a more direct and wide-ranging confrontation between federal officials and the companies that dominate input supply. Those discussions, he says, were not limited to USDA alone but included a broader slice of the administration’s economic leadership, signaling how central fertilizer costs have become to the national conversation on food production and inflation.

Vaden says cabinet-level officials from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative were present, alongside USDA leadership and state agriculture commissioners from Iowa and Georgia. Fertilizer executives were also in the room, making the meeting a rare setting where policy makers, regulators and industry leaders sat together to address pricing, supply constraints and long-term market structure.

He says the purpose was not simply informational, but confrontational in the sense of putting real-world farm impacts directly in front of industry decision-makers.

“It was an opportunity for those other cabinet officials to hear from the fertilizer company executives,” Vaden says, “and for those fertilizer company executives to hear from the secretary and me, as well as our two state counterparts who joined, about the real harm that farmers are facing from uncertainty in the market and, equally as importantly, years of elevated prices.”

Vaden says what often gets lost outside agriculture is that the current fertilizer environment is not a short-term disruption, but the continuation of a multi-year pricing trend that has reshaped farm budgets.

“For people who don’t pay attention to ag every day like your listeners do, they may think this fertilizer thing came out of nowhere,” Vaden says. “But American farmers know that we’re on year five or more of elevated prices for fertilizer, and questions about adequate supply of all fertilizer types.”

He adds that the timing of the discussions is critical, as global geopolitical tensions are only adding pressure to already strained markets.

“So I see this as an opportunity now that the attention of everyone is focused on fertilizer, not just agriculture, to begin to solve the problem that has taken years to develop and that has been exacerbated by the current situation in the Middle East,” Vaden says. “So that we don’t find ourselves in another long-term question about fertilizer supply going forward.”

USDA Pushes Industry: Bring Projects Forward or Explain the Bottlenecks

As discussions continue with fertilizer companies, Vaden says USDA is shifting the conversation from general concern to specific accountability. Rather than broad discussions about market conditions, he says officials are now asking companies to identify concrete projects that could increase supply and to explain why those investments have not yet materialized.

This approach, he says, reflects a broader strategy inside the department to move beyond analysis and toward action, particularly in areas where supply constraints have persisted for years without meaningful change.

In meetings held both jointly and separately with industry leaders, Vaden says USDA has been consistent in its message to fertilizer companies.

“We are saying the same thing to everyone who comes before the department,” Vaden says. “Be a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem.”

He says that includes detailed questions about whether expansion projects are already in development but stalled due to permitting delays, regulatory barriers or capital constraints. In some cases, he says, USDA is asking companies to identify where federal or state action could realistically speed up timelines.

“We are asking them what projects they have in the pipeline that they can bring on board to create new fertilizer supplies, hopefully here domestically, but if necessary, near-shoring overseas,” Vaden says. “And are there steps that we can take to make those projects move faster? Are there permits that are held up? Are there states or localities that are holding up their expansions? Are there investments that they are looking for with regard to needing capital to be able to expand their production capacity?”

He adds the department is not approaching the issue passively, but actively pressing for answers.

“We’re asking as many questions as we are making declarative statements, and we’re trying to see what levers we can pull to get more supply on the market,” Vaden says.

Market Concentration at Center of USDA Concerns

Beyond supply timelines and permitting issues, Vaden says one of the core structural concerns in fertilizer markets is the level of consolidation, particularly in phosphate production where a small number of companies control a dominant share of supply.

He says that level of concentration raises fundamental questions about how prices are formed and whether farmers are receiving signals that reflect true market conditions.

With that in mind, Vaden says USDA is focusing heavily on competition and price discovery as part of its broader review of input markets.

“With one of our fertilizer markets, there are two companies that control 90% market share,” Vaden says. “Anybody, I don’t care whether it’s fertilizer or what any other commodity you want to talk about, if there are only two major players, how can anyone be sure that the price you are paying reflects actual market conditions?”

He says the issue is not simply about individual price spikes, but about whether enough competition exists to keep pricing behavior transparent and responsive.

“In order to have adequate price discovery in a market, you need multiple players,” Vaden says.

That concern, he adds, is one of the reasons fertilizer investigations already underway by federal agencies predate recent geopolitical disruptions and continue to expand.

Vaden Details Heated Meeting With Mosaic: “A Different Tune in My Conference Room”

Among the most pointed parts of Vaden’s interview are his comments about a recent face-to-face meeting with Mosaic, one of the most influential players in the phosphate fertilizer market. He says the discussion, held in his conference room just this week, was direct and, at times, uncomfortable, focusing heavily on production decisions, capacity investment and the company’s role in a highly concentrated global market.

Vaden says he challenged Mosaic on why additional production capacity has not been brought online in the United States over a long period of time, and what barriers the company believes are preventing expansion.

He says he left the meeting with clear expectations for follow-up information from the company, describing it as an assignment rather than a casual discussion.

“I gave them a homework assignment,” Vaden says. “I told them what I expected to see, and I hope that they will get back to me as soon as possible.”

But what stood out most to him, he says, was not just what was said in the room, but how it contrasted with the company’s public messaging.

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

In his view, there was a noticeable difference between internal discussions and external communications, particularly on social media, where fertilizer policy debates have increasingly played out in public.

“And I will say, without being able to go into details, when they were in my office, they were singing a slightly different tune than they were signing on Twitter responding to the president’s Truth Social message that you noted,” Vaden says.

He uses that contrast to underscore what he sees as a broader disconnect between industry messaging and the realities USDA believes farmers are facing.

“We need more supply, we need answers, your company hasn’t provided either of those two things,” Vaden says. “It’s about time that you did.”

Industry Responses, Trade Policy Pressure and the Mosaic Question

While Vaden applies pressure to Mosaic, he notes that not all fertilizer companies are taking the same stance on trade policy and tariffs. He points specifically to Nutrien, which he says has indicated support for removing certain trade enforcement measures.

“I was very happy after I met with the Nutrien CEO that they came out and announced we don’t need this CVD order anymore,” Vaden says.

By contrast, he says Mosaic’s position on countervailing duties and phosphate trade enforcement remains unresolved, and that broader policy decisions are now effectively waiting on the company’s response.

He characterizes the situation as fluid but heavily dependent on industry input.

“Right now the question is in Mosaic’s court, if you will,” Vaden says. “And we’re waiting for an answer from them.”

He adds that regulatory or executive action is unlikely to be taken in a vacuum while negotiations and responses are still unfolding.

“One thing that I know as a lawyer is that there’s a whole lot more possible if you have consent of the parties than if you don’t,” Vaden says. “With consent, nearly all things are possible.”

Investigations Expand as USDA Seeks Farmer-Reported Data

Alongside industry meetings, Vaden says USDA is working with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission on ongoing fertilizer market investigations, with a particular focus on pricing behavior and market transparency.

He says one challenge is the nature of pricing information itself, which often reaches farmers through informal channels and can change quickly.

“We’re asking questions and waiting for answers, and we need farmers’ help as part of our question asking,” Vaden says.

He describes a pattern many farmers have reported directly to USDA, where fertilizer prices are quoted in a way that encourages immediate purchase rather than delayed buying.

“I know in my own family’s operation that you get phone calls, and those phone calls tell you ‘Here’s what the price is now, and if you wait, here’s what the price will be later,’” Vaden says. “And that later price is never lower than the price that it is now.”

To address that, he says USDA is working on a confidential reporting system designed to protect farmer identity while improving data quality for investigators.

“If they trust us with their information, if they trust us with the facts that they have, they’ll be able to remain anonymous,” Vaden says. “And the companies under investigation will not know who shared what data with us.”

“This Has Been Going On for Too Long”

Vaden closes by emphasizing that fertilizer prices and supply constraints are not a new challenge for agriculture, but an entrenched issue that has persisted through multiple years and market cycles.

He says the administration is trying to shift both short-term supply conditions and long-term structural dynamics at the same time, adding that USDA’s goal is not temporary relief, but sustained changes in supply, competition and pricing stability.

“We are focused on getting new supplies here now, and not just now, but next year and the year after that and the years after that,” Vaden says. “So that we can have guaranteed new supplies over the long term.”

Vaden’s Message to Farmers: “We’re Saying the Same Thing in Public and in Private”

At the end of the conversation, Vaden returned to what he described as the central audience for everything USDA is doing on fertilizer: farmers themselves. He acknowledged frustration is not just growing, but it has become a defining sentiment across much of farm country as input costs remain elevated and supply questions persist year after year.

He emphasized USDA’s posture is not different depending on the room or the audience, whether speaking with industry executives, other federal agencies, or producers themselves.

“I want farmers to know that when I am sitting with representatives of other cabinet departments or when I am sitting with big fertilizer CEOs, I am saying the same thing in private that you hear me saying in public,” Vaden says. “I do not change my tune. I may be slightly more polite, but I am equally as direct in terms of telling them what I think the situation is.”

Vaden says that directness is rooted in what he believes farmers are already experiencing on the ground, particularly when it comes to fertilizer pricing volatility and uncertainty in purchasing decisions. He says producers are not misreading the situation — they are responding to real, long-running pressures.

He also acknowledges the emotional toll on producers is part of the reality USDA is hearing more frequently.

“I especially communicate to them that farmers have gone from exasperation to anger with the situation that we have now,” Vaden says. “They are not wrong to be feeling those emotions because they understand that this is not a new situation.”

Looking ahead, Vaden says USDA’s goal is not just to address short-term pricing spikes, but to change the underlying conditions that have kept fertilizer costs elevated for years. That includes expanding supply, increasing competition and improving long-term stability in input markets.

“This is an issue that has bedeviled American agriculture for at least five years, and it is time that it stopped,” Vaden says.

Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 17:11:28 GMT

As President Donald Trump demands a federal investigation into meatpackers for inflating beef prices , another battle over farm input costs is already heating up. Fertilizer, long one of the most volatile and least transparent costs in farming, is now drawing renewed scrutiny on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has reintroduced The Fertilizer Research Act, a bipartisan measure requiring USDA to study pricing and competition across the fertilizer market. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says that effort will go hand in hand with a Department of Justice probe into market concentration, promising to take a look at whether farmers truly have fair choices when buying the inputs that feed the nation.

“Pressure Cooker” on Capitol Hill

Two weeks ago on Capitol Hill, lawmakers took up the issue farmers have long demanded answers for: Why fertilizer, seed and input prices keep rising while competition keeps shrinking.

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing, titled “Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed and Fertilizer Industries, ” drew fiery testimony from across agriculture. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they’re hearing growing frustration from rural America.

Grassley tells the committee that farmers are being boxed in by consolidation at every level of the ag supply chain.

“Over the last 20 years, a few big companies have bought up many of the smaller seed and chemical businesses,” he says. “Those same companies now sell not just the seeds, but also the pesticides and digital farming tools that tell farmers what to plant and when. Because all these products and data systems are tied together, it’s hard for farmers to switch to a different brand.”

Sen. Cory Booker, D–N.J., delivers one of the sharpest warnings of the day.

“What’s happening in America is dire,” he says. “Congress must not just talk about the problems; we’ve got to fix them. Otherwise, American farming as we know it will be forever changed.”

Farmers Take a Stand

The goal of the hearing was to understand what’s driving record-high input prices and what, if anything, Congress can do to restore fairness and competition.

Of the six witnesses called that day, two were farmers who spoke candidly about what they’re experiencing on the ground.

Noah Coppess, a fifth-generation farmer from Cedar County, Iowa, tells senators the volatility of fertilizer pricing has turned crop planning into a gamble.

“If the market becomes too constricted, it is ultimately the farmer who loses,” Coppess says. “Fertilizer pricing has become very volatile, with wild swings of 25% to 50% from year to year. We’re asked to prepay for fertilizer three to six months before it’s applied to the soil and up to 14 months before harvest. Many contracts have a narrow window for application. If we miss it, the contract expires and the input is repriced higher or we’re charged monthly fees just to extend it.”

He says it’s forcing farmers to cut back in ways that threaten long-term soil health.

“Phosphate fertilizer has become a bare-minimum usage fertilizer on our farm because of the cost,” Coppess adds. “We simply can’t afford to apply it like we used to.”

Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland tells the committee the same pressures are weighing on his operation.

“Farmers are paying more than ever to grow their crops,” he says. “In just five years, seed prices have increased by 18%, fertilizer by 37%, pesticides by 25%, machinery by 23% and interest expense by 37%. Seed is a key cost consideration for farmers. Advancements in seed technology and pesticides have delivered real agronomic benefits — but at an added cost. Those costs are eating away at what little margin we have left.”

Industry Response: “A Perfect Storm”

But the hearing wasn’t just about farmers. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), appeared before the committee to represent the industry’s view. Speaking later with “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory, Rosenbusch says the pressures farmers face are real but are largely the result of global dynamics, not domestic decisions.

“It’s a challenging time for growers,” Rosenbusch says. “In some cases, it’s even harder for the American farmer right now than it was a few years ago when markets exploded because at least, back then, commodity prices were high. Right now, it’s a perfect storm. Commodity prices are low, and input costs keep going up and up. Our message is simple: We need farmers to be successful because if they’re not, we don’t exist. But the factors driving this market are frankly outside of our control and, honestly, outside of this country’s control. Geopolitics is taking the headlines when it comes to supply and demand.”

He says Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s fertilizer export restrictions and global energy volatility are all rippling through fertilizer markets — forces far beyond the industry’s ability to manage.

“These are global supply and demand pressures,” Rosenbusch says. “When geopolitics dominate, prices react worldwide.”

Farmers Push Back: “Too Few Suppliers”

Farmers listening to the hearing say those global explanations don’t tell the whole story.

Mark Mueller, a farmer from Bremer County, Iowa, was supposed to testify on behalf of the Iowa Corn Growers but says he was disinvited, which he believes was because of Iowa Corn’s strong stance on lack of competition in the fertilizer market.

He still attended the hearing in person and says one statement from the fertilizer industry blew him away.

“The bottom line is that we don’t have many places to get our inputs from,” Mueller says. “I might have a half dozen retailers in my county, but when you go a little farther, they all get their phosphorus from one company, their potash from two companies, and their nitrogen from maybe three, and it’s the same problem in the seed industry.”

Mueller says one comment from the industry’s leadership stuck with him.

“The most disingenuous statement I heard came from the CEO of the Fertilizer Institute,” he says. “He said there are 20 unique companies supplying fertilizer inputs to the industry. That’s like General Motors saying they’re made up of four or five unique companies — Buick, Chevrolet, GMC and Cadillac. It’s all one company.”

“It’s Not a Monopoly — It’s an Oligopoly”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, agrees the U.S. fertilizer market isn’t a monopoly, but he says it operates much like one.

“Here’s why I can’t be a politician,” Linville jokes. “No, there isn’t enough competition. It’s not a monopoly, but it’s definitely an oligopoly. When you look at nitrogen, three players control the vast majority of production. For phosphate, there’s one main producer. For potash, we’re highly dependent on imports. Almost all of it comes from Canada. So yes, we have some competition — but not enough.”

Linville says fewer players mean tighter supply chains, and that amplifies every global shock, from wars to tariffs.

“A lot of what’s happening is global supply and demand,” he says. “But the lack of competition doesn’t help. Tariffs, countervailing duties and even the fear of new sanctions on Russia are inflating prices that global trade already pushes higher.”

Concerns Potential Government Trade Aid Payments Further Inflate Fertilizer Prices

There’s yet another wildcard this year: the potential for the White House to release tariff aid payments. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.

Linville says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.

“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”

Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.

“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”

Read More: Tariff Aid Payments Could Backfire, Boosting Fertilizer Prices, Analyst Warns

Little Hope for Price Relief

When asked whether fertilizer prices could ease before spring, Linville doesn’t sugarcoat it.

“You know me — I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” he says. “I’m not going to say prices can’t fall between now and spring, but the second I do, the market will humble me again. We’ve got some improvements: China’s exporting a little more, Russia’s exporting more, there’s more peace in the Middle East, but we still have production problems in Europe, and China’s slowing exports again. Phosphate exports are being cut in half this year, and the world doesn’t have anyone ready to fill that gap. So could prices fall? Yes. But I’m not holding my breath.”

Stockpiling Isn’t a Solution

When asked on “AgriTalk” whether stopping exports and stockpiling product domestically could help ease prices, Rosenbusch says the U.S. doesn’t have that capability.

“Even if we wanted to take a page out of China’s book and stop exports, we couldn’t,” he says. “We still have to import 40% of our phosphates. We don’t have the infrastructure to stockpile fertilizer in this country. It just doesn’t exist.”

A Critical Step Forward

In what’s being hailed as a small but meaningful win for the U.S. farm economy, the Trump administration recently added phosphate and potash to the list of 10 minerals deemed critical to national security. The designation could help accelerate mining permits and spur new domestic investment — something both industry and lawmakers say is badly needed.

But for farmers testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the message was clear: They can’t wait years for market reform.

“Fertilizer is the biggest pain point on farms today,” Coppess says. “We need change, and we need it soon.”

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:26 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

From Despair to Hope: Why a Farmer on the Brink of Suicide Chose to Keep Going

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:41:25 GMT

It’s starting to feel similar to the 1980s. Not only are farmers on the brink of financial collapse, but there’s another grim reality setting in: The number of farmers dying by suicide is on the rise, and it could be at a rate U.S. agriculture hasn’t seen since the 1980s.

Even though statistics on suicides among farmers aren’t reliable from the 1980s because many were deemed “accidents” during that time, some estimates point to more than 1,000 farmers dying by suicide during that crisis.

“Unfortunately, it just almost seems like it’s a pandemic situation. I mean, there’s a lot of it, and it’s sad,” says Brent Foreman, a farmer in Shelby County, Mo., who knows the impacts of farmer suicides all too well.

“From an agricultural perspective, there’s a lot of stress in this industry, especially now,” Foreman says. “And somebody that’s contemplating this. I would say, we as farmers, we like to try to fix things, and we’re pretty good at it, but you can’t fix everything. If you get to a point like that, please reach out to someone, a family member, a good friend. Just please try to get some help.”

Touched By Suicide Three Times

Foreman isn’t just a fellow farmer concerned about the number of farmer suicides today. He’s a life-long farmer who’s been impacted by farmers dying by suicide three times, and the first loss happened when he was just 12 years old.

“My grandfather was a wonderful man, the most important male figure in my life,” Foreman says. “It happened 54 years ago, and it leaves a heck of a hole in your heart still today.”

Sixteen years later, his younger brother died by suicide, another sudden and tragic loss where there were no signs something was wrong.

“And then just a little over two years ago, my brother-in-law, who was 68, took his life,” Foreman says. “I’m telling you, it’s a devastating thing for loved ones to have to go through. It is tough. It’s really tough.”

Foreman says with his brother-in-law, there were signs he was struggling. He tried to take his life one time, but didn’t succeed. That’s when the family tried to get him help, which he agreed to, even going in for treatment.

“We thought that things were getting better, but they weren’t,” Foreman says. “At the beginning, I consulted our preacher, and I said: ‘I need some prayer and I need some advice.’ And he said: ‘Well, I do want to tell you something. I want you to be able to be prepared if you fail. Can you handle that?’ And I said: ‘Well, what I can’t handle is if I don’t try. I have to try.’

Experiencing three suicides, all by loved ones he was extremely close to, has been devastating. Foreman says the emotions are still raw today.

“It’s tough to live with, going through that so many times,” he says. “When I was a youngster I always told myself, the hurt, that’s something I would never do to anyone else. I just made like a pact with myself that I would never do that, because I’ve seen and lived firsthand how it affects you. From a family’s perspective, the pain goes on and on; it doesn’t quit. My wife, from her perspective, I can just see it in her eyes almost daily, the devastation.”

‘When We Lose Hope, It’s a Dangerous Place to Be’

When a person loses hope, that’s when the situation turns bleak.

“Sadly, that is the end all for a lot of people,” Jolie Foreman, executive director at Shelby County Cares , says. “Hope is key. If you have hope, you can keep going. When you lose hope, it’s just a very dangerous place to be.”

Lafayette County, Mo., farmer Ethan Daehler has been there.

“It was actually 2019 was kind of my low point,” he says.

Just six years ago, this Missouri farmer hit rock bottom.

“I was pretty much just down in the dumps, ready to just give up on life,” he says. “Thank the Lord something happened that kind of changed my way of thinking.”

In his early 30s, Ethan Daehler knows what it’s like to be on the verge of suicide. In 2019, he hit a low point. But something saved him, and he hopes by sharing his story, he will reach other farmers in a similar state of mind, reminding them that life is worth living.

(Ethan Daehler, Missouri Farmer )

Battling ongoing pain from an accident and stress of work, as well as struggles with the dynamics of a family farm, it all compounded the issue and pushed Daehler to a breaking point.

“I had a full-time job at the time working for another farmer and trying to do my own small operation,” he says. “We had family issues, which happens to a lot of farmers. There is a lot that compounds into thoughts, it’s just not financial problems, and I think that’s what people need to understand.

Daehler is now proof that it’s worth finding a reason to live, and he is only sharing his story to possibly save someone who’s in a similar spot as he was in 2019.

“There’s more to life,” he says. “I’m in a tractor now, baling hay, this is my fourth cutting. This is what I kind of dreamed of. Find something you love doing.”

A Mission to Prevent Farmer Suicides

That pain is something that fueled his daughter-in-law’s work. Jolie Foreman is the executive director at Shelby County Cares , a nonprofit whose goal is to improve the quality of life for children, youth and adults.

“I knew that we were very resource poor,” Jolie says. “So when I heard that this opportunity was available, we jumped on it, and we’ve just grown from the bottom up. We are definitely grassroots. They had faith in us in what our vision was, and they invested in it.

Through a grant,Jolie’s initial focus wasn’t suicide, but as she started doing research, she discovered there was a desperate need to provide help.

“My family had been impacted by suicide, and that’s kind of why I had jumped on board in the beginning,” she says. “But once we sat down at the table and really started to dive into the names and being in a small town, we know all of those lives that have been lost to suicide up here, that the producer was the one that was struggling.”

Fall Typically Heightens the Stress and Struggles

Jolie says they are currently seeing an increase in the number of farmer suicides happening across the country. Some of that is due to the various stresses involved with farming, but she says the fall is typically when the number of suicides in agriculture rises even more.

“In the spring, there’s a lot of hope,” Jolie says. “You’re planting, you’re coming off of the year that may have been good, may have been bad, but there’s always hope in the spring. And come September, I think the stark reality starts to set in either the pricing and the yields.”

September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month , and when it comes to agriculture the facts are startling. Farmers are 3.5 times more likely to die by suicide than the general population. The suicide rate among male farmers, ranchers and ag managers is 43.7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the National Rural Health Association.

The mounting financial pressures unfolding across the agricultural economy are adding another layer to an industry that already faces one of the highest rates of suicide compared to any other profession.

“Suicide is one of those things that’s hard to put on a scale,” Jolie says. “I mean we know the lives we’ve lost. We unfortunately can’t see the lives that we’ve saved, but I do know from talking to the local ambulance district that the calls have definitely increased; 988 is a huge resource here, and those calls have gone up and increased exponentially. And just through conversations I know that that rural agricultural piece is pressing behind it.”

She says one of the most startling discoveries she’s made during her research and work is the desensitization to death among farmers. She says through various conversations, it’s a reality that’s sad but true.

It’s Not Just Financial Stress That Causes Strains on Farmers’ Mental Health

Jolie says it’s not just financial stress that causes these struggles. It’s also the fact farming comes with many stresses, and for the most part, many farmers are so isolated and might not have access to adequate healthcare.

AgriSafe says if you’re a farmer, rancher, or farmworker, you already know that your work can expose you to a variety of hazards. They believe that with proper education and access to knowledgeable health professionals, farmers can live a long, healthy, and productive life.

(The Total Farmer Health Model, AgriSafe)

According to AgriSafe’s Total Farmer Health , the financial factor is one that can compound mental health struggles, but there are other factors that lead to the risks of farmer suicides including:

Weather
Sleep
Cognition
Social
Diet
Hazards
Spirituality
Healthcare
Fitness

Signs to Watch

And for family and friends, there are signs to watch out for, including neglect of the farm or ranch or even an individual who makes a big financial moves.

“Financial moves are also huge, which is why we’ve talked to attorneys, and we also talked to the financial providers like different banks,” Jolie says. “Are they moving their money? Are they giving away prize possessions? Are they changing their wills? Are they creating a sudden will? We just want to give those resources the tools that they need just to be like, ’Are you okay?’

Daehler says his message for someone in a dark place is you’re not alone. That message is something the Foremans also wants farmers to know.

“I want them to know that we care. I want to know they feed and fuel the world, but if their bucket is empty, they can’t pour into others,” Jolie says. “It’s OK to not be OK, to talk about it, to reach out, to ask your neighbor, to not afraid if you do see something or change in behavior or more isolation. Don’t be afraid to have that conversation. And there are a lot of people that care.”

Suicide Prevent Hotlines

It’s important to remember no matter where you are, there is help. 988 is the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline .

And for farmers, there is a specific farmer crisis hotline you can call that is toll-free at 866.586.6746.

The American Farm Bureau also has a Farm State of Mind campaign which builds awareness to reduce stigma and provides access to information and resources that promote farmer and rancher mental health wellness. You can visit that list of resources here .

Is the Ag Economy in a Recession? Why Economists and Farmers Don't Agree

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 19:02:22 GMT

Fewer agricultural economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, but when you consider most major row crops are seeing four consecutive years of poor profit margins, farmers argue an agricultural recession is currently underway.

Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May .

For the 53% who think agriculture is in a recession, economists argue the poor profit margins and another year of projected negative returns mean any cash reserves are being drained.

In the July survey, economists said:

“While the BBB will raise reference prices for the ARC and PLC, current market prices remain low, and crops went in with expensive inputs, so most producers are going to have a hard time profiting under the current conditions. Losses may be lessening but it’s a tough situation for grain producers.”
“2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
“Farmers are seeing cash flow drain and lower revenues compared to the past two years.”

The negative returns projected for 2025 and 2026 aren’t just due to low commodity prices, but the fact input prices, like fertilizer, are trending higher.

The poor profitability picture is impacting nearly every major row crop in the U.S., with at least four consecutive years of negative margins when you look at just the price versus costs.

(Krista Swanson, National Corn Growers Association )

Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), says poor profitability margins are projected for every major commodity in the U.S.

“I think the big concern, especially as we turn to looking at 2026, is that we’re talking about for almost every single crop, 2026 being at least the fourth consecutive year of negative returns, and we’re not just talking about small negative returns on average, but over $100 an acre losses, and again, that’s not accounting for crop insurance or any government payments that is specifically looking at costs and returns from those grain sales,” Swanson says.

Why Some Ag Economists Argue Agriculture Isn’t in a Recession

Additional farm program payments from Congress, along with the fact land prices aren’t declining, are two reasons 47% of ag economists argue the ag economy isn’t in a recession.

In the July survey, ag economists who say the row crop side of agriculture isn’t in a recession, gave the following reasons:

“Farm program payments and strong corn exports. Land prices also do not appear to have declined, according to the August land report from USDA.”
“Although prices are currently low, production prospects are very good, supporting expected crop revenue and lowering crop cost of production per unit.”
“Prices and income are down sharply from their 2022 peak. Defining a ‘recession’ for a sector is difficult. To me, it implies a temporary downturn, but something like current prices appears more likely to be ‘the new normal’ than a temporary blip.”
Although crop farms have been facing considerable financial challenges, so far, farm finance has been sustained by cutting down on some of their working capital. I would worry about the actual (bigger) recession possibly to come. In my opinion, tariff effects will be less likely to take place immediately in this harvest season, but the shock (without negotiation scenario) will likely hit the farm input cost first, threatening farm financial health of 2026.”
“Government payments and crop insurance guarantees are removing the downside risk that would typically allow input costs to reset.”

Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf agrees a price squeeze is impacting margins for farmers, but a big piece of why he doesn’t think U.S. agriculture is in a recession is land values.

“It’s a price squeeze on the input prices versus the cost of the output prices,” Zulauf says. “But I think for the farm economy to be in a recession, you have to see some softening land prices both on the rental side and on the ownership side. And USDA just released on the first of August their latest land estimates, and I think a fair characterization of it is that land values were up, cash rent was stable to slightly up. That does not corroborate in my mind with a sector that’s in recession.”

American Farm Bureau Federal looks at how land values have trended over time. This is based on the latest UDSA NASS data.

(American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF))

USDA’s annual land survey released earlier this month shows on average, land real estate values came in at $4,170 per acre in 2025, which is a 4.3% increase from 2024.

Zulauf says you can make an argument that land values are holding steady because of government payments.

“But the point is that government payments are at least apparently keeping the land price in check,” he says. “And that’s a really big thing because of borrowing capacity and all that that goes along with asset prices.”

Not Just the Midwest and South Feeling the Financial Pinch

July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked which region of the country is seeing the most severe financial pressures impact farmers.

38% responded the Midwest
15% said the Mid-South
8% responded the West
8% also said the Northwest

“The first thing I have to remind everybody is we are incredibly diverse,” says Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist with the University of California, Davis. “So the top ag commodity in California is milk. And milk isn’t doing that bad these days in terms of prices. Beef is also a huge part of our economy. So I picked the two that are doing OK. The rest of them are struggling.”

He says from tree nuts to fruit and grapes, growers in California are also struggling with lower prices and higher costs.

He says the grape industry, especially wine grapes, are struggling with a demand problem. Tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade is also impact tree nuts and other fruits.

“Since China used to be such a big market for them, and China, you’re dealing with the government there. So you could write down what the tariffs are, and then you write down what the government policy says to the importers, and of course they’ve got their centrally planned economy. So it’s been tough on tree nuts with the loss of that Chinese market,” he says.

What to Watch Over the Next 12 Months

Economists say trade will play a major factor in the health of the ag economy over the next 12 months. It’s not just how the tariff issues are resolved, but with which countries the U.S. is able to strike trade deals.

“What happens with trade/tariffs is likely the biggest factor now and over the next 12 months across all of agriculture. I’ve made this statement in the past, but it continues to be the biggest wild card that could boost or harm the ag sector. Another factor I’m watching in the short term is crop size,” said one economist.

When asked to outline the two most important factors that could impact the ag economy over the next 12 months, economists varied in their responses, but said:

Trade negotiations
Government payments and farm safety net programs
Crop prices versus production costs
Strength in livestock markets
Biofuel policies
Interest Rates

Economists say provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill are also important to agriculture over the next 12 months.

“The two most significant drivers are the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill that will spend about $50 billion on commodity programs over the next 10 years, as well as recently announced trade deals,” said an economist in the anonymous survey. “Increased reference prices in the BBB will help support farm income, and it appears the administration is making a point of securing deals for ag as part of the trade pacts being negotiated. These both bode well for agriculture.”

A Silent Truth Hidden in the Farm Economy: Farmer Suicides Are on the Rise

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:08:22 GMT

Signs of stress in the farm economy are everywhere you turn, and with corn futures hitting fresh lows again this week, crumbling commodity prices are painting a dreary outlook for 2025, and the financial pressures are causing another bleak reality: farmer suicides are also on the rise.

In 2024, used equipment prices were plummeting at auction, with values of larger horsepower tractors dropping more than 20% . As used equipment flooded the auction market, Alex Kerr, owner of Kerr Auction and Kerr Equipment , noticed another troubling trend.

“This is really odd for me,” Kerr said in a video he posted to social media last year. “Three tractors up here that I bought on auction, and I’m not going to tell you which ones, but they came off of suicide — the reason is that the farmers are no longer here. It’s the reason I’ve got the tractors.”

Kerr noticed the silent truth happening in the midst of the current downturn in the farm economy, which was the fact he was seeing an uptick in the amount of equipment coming to auction as a result of farmer suicide.

“If anybody needs to talk, call your friends, call us. We don’t need to sell you anything. I don’t want to buy more tractors this way,” Kerr went on to say in the video.

Kerr says he typically doesn’t know all the stories behind the tractors he sells, especially if it’s a consignment auction. As an auction company and used equipment dealer, his focus is on the numbers. But at this particular auction, he was compelled to do something.

“I noticed at one point after I had bought some stuff, and I had it all sitting on my lot together advertised for sale. I’m lining this stuff up, and it just kind of hit me. I’m like, ‘What happened to these guys to get them to a point they wanted to do that rather than continue on?’ I’m lining up those tractors, and I thought about it for a while and turned around and made the video,” Kerr says.

While there aren’t any stats on the exact number of farmer suicides happening across the U.S ., according to a CDC study published in January 2020, farmers are among the most likely to die by suicide, in comparison to other occupations. And with 259 farm bankruptcies filed between April 2024 and March 2025, it’s clear the financial stress on farms is only growing more severe this year.

“In most cases, if it’s a financial problem, the stereotypical answer people will tell you is, ‘Oh, keep your head up. It’ll get better.’ Well, if its a financial thing, the odds are it’s not going to get better. If you just keep digging the same hole, it only gets worse. So, you need to stop and make changes in your life or your business,” Kerr says.

Kerr’s video ultimately reached Bridgette Readel , a retired agronomist who is bringing more awareness to mental health among farmers through her social media following on X (formerly Twitter).

“To be honest, I got Alex’s video sent to me by a mutual friend — a farmer from Wisconsin. Alex had listened to one of the Twitter chats that I do on Fridays and heard the discussion which had been about farmer suicide, depression and anxiety,” Readel says. “Alex never wanted to step in front of the limelight, but he could see a trend, particularly in the geography where he works. And he wanted to do something just to raise a little bit of awareness.”

She says Kerr’s video struck a chord because not only was it bringing awareness to a topic not often discussed, but other farmers could relate to it.

“So many folks could recognize themselves in it: ‘That’s my same tractor’ or ‘I have thought about these very same thoughts or problems. How do I get away from them?’” Readel says. “For those who are closer to my age and remember what the ‘80s were like, there were a lot of farm ‘accidents’ that weren’t accidents. And now it’s a fear of what if myself, my neighbor, my brother, my sister or someone else is that next person?”

Agriculture is full of doers. If farmers see a problem, they immediately want to fix it. But when it comes to mental health, it’s not an easy fix — and not one that can be resolved on your own.

That’s why Readel says there’s one main message farmers need to hear right now: it’s okay to not be okay, but you have to ask for help.

“My message to farmers is to remember that you’re not alone, and when you see something with one of your friends or neighbors, ask them. Don’t be afraid. You don’t have to be a professional at it. You can help them find a professional, but sometimes it’s as simple as sitting in the buddy seat and asking how they’re doing. They might not answer you the first time, so ask it the second time,” she says.

As AgWeb reported in 2024, it’s important the friends, family, and business professionals close to farmers are prepared and able to effectively communicate in a mental health crisis. You can read more in this story, Your Mental Health Toolbox: How To Recognize The Warning Signs.

In the U.S., you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counselor.

Agriculture in the Bull's-Eye: Raids Reportedly Resume on Farms, Meatpacking Plants

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 20:50:51 GMT

After President Donald Trump reportedly ordered Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE ) to pause raids on farms and meatpacking plants last week, new reports say the administration is reversing course again. The on-again, off-again reports regarding ICE raids is sowing confusion for those who rely on immigrant labor and already causing labor shortages due to employees not showing up for work.

There was an update again late Friday, with President Trump saying he’s looking at new immigration policy steps that would allow farms to take responsibility for people they hire.

The Washington Post first reported Monday that ICE officials told leaders representing field offices across the country they must continue to conduct raids at worksite locations, which is a reversal from guidance issued just days earlier.

Officials with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) wouldn’t confirm the Washington Post’s report, but an agricultural association told Farm Journal the article is accurate based on their discussions with the administration.

Instead, DHS told us this:

“The president has been incredibly clear. There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine ICE’s efforts,” says DHS assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin. “Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safe guard public safety, national security and economic stability. These operations target illegal employment networks that undermine American workers, destabilize labor markets and expose critical infrastructure to exploitation.”

By Friday, there was another update. Reuters reported President Trump said he was looking at immigration policy steps that would allow farms to take responsibility for people they hire.

“We’re looking at doing something where, in the case of good, reputable farmers, they can take responsibility for the people that they hire and let them have responsibility, because we can’t put the farms out of business,” Trump told reporters. “And at the same time we don’t want to hurt people that aren’t criminals.”

According to Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook, the recent ICE raids are already creating absenteeism and labor shortages that could severally disrupt the U.S. food supply. Ag groups are again calling for immigration reform with hopes the issue will finally come to a head.

Ripple Effect of Immigration Crackdown

Joe Del Bosque, owner of Del Bosque Farms in Firebaugh, Calif., is experiencing the rollercoaster with labor, saying the shifting policy strikes fear in farmers and workers.

“There’s so much uncertainty as to what the administration’s going to do,” Del Bosque told Rook on AgriTalk this week.

Del Bosque says the raids on California produce farms are disrupting the harvest of perishable produce.

“They haven’t been really huge sweeps. They’re usually picking up a few people. But it creates a lot of fear, and people don’t show up to work. That’s just as bad as if they were taken away,” he says.

According to an exclusive report by Farm Journal’s The Packer , the ripple effect of Trump’s immigration crackdown on agriculture could be far-reaching — if the administration revives its focus on ag.

Kevin Kelly is the CEO of Emerald Packaging — the largest flexible packaging supplier to the leafy greens industry. Based in Union City, Calif., the company has been in the packaging business for 62 years. Kelly says the immigrant workforce in California is feeling uncertain and afraid.

“We’ve certainly heard folks aren’t turning up to work in the fields, and we’ve seen it in our facility. We verify everybody, so we know everybody in our facility is documented and can legally work in the United States,” Kelly tells Jennifer Strailey, editor of The Packer. “In our case, it’s brothers and sisters being deported, and other family members being afraid. Our employees are staying home to help their family members move, to take care of them or to take them to see an attorney — that kind of thing.”

Dairy operations in several states have also been raided recently. Dairy producers say they rely on immigrant labor to provide a stable year-round work force and to keep the U.S. food supply stable.

“We need these people to take care of our animals so we can produce food. Without animal care, we won’t have milk, cheese, butter — nothing,” Greg Moes, MoDak Dairy in Goodwin, S.D., told Rook.

The recent ICE arrests at Glenn Valley Foods of Omaha, Neb. have also led to absenteeism at meat processing plants.

“At the beginning of the Trump administration, we had this same worry with the crackdown — whether this was going to impact absenteeism and things like that,” says Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek in Sioux Center, Iowa. “So, hopefully we can put that in our rearview mirror.”

By the Numbers: A Heavy Reliance on Immigrant Labor
The news this week of the Trump administration putting a pause on raids of farms and meat processors is welcome news for those in agriculture. From dairies and produce farms, to meatpacking plants across the U.S., these sectors rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Immigrant labor makes up a substantial portion of the meat processing workforce, with estimates ranging from 37% to over 50%. However, states like South Dakota and Nebraska have even higher concentrations of immigrant workers in meat processing — reaching 58% and 66%, according to the nonprofit Migration Policy Institute.

And a large portion of U.S. dairy farms rely on immigrant labor, with estimates indicating that over half of all dairy workers are immigrants. Specifically, these workers account for 51% of the total dairy workforce and are responsible for producing 79% of the U.S. milk supply.

Farmworker Justice estimates 70% of the produce industry’s farmworkers are immigrants. USDA’s estimates are lower — closer to 60%.

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:47 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:04:44 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

Your Next Read:
Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

An 11-Year Old's Idea Sparked An Idea That's Grown Into an Annual Toy Drive Giving Out 13,000 Toys Each Year

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 15:02:28 GMT

The season of giving for Reed Marcum doesn’t just happen during Christmas. For this 19-year, the season of giving is year-round.

“I came up with the idea back in 2016 when I realized that I wanted to help put another toy under someone’s tree that year,” says Marcum, who’s now a Pittsburg County, Oklahoma 4-H Ambassador.

At just 11 years-old, this 4-H member had an idea: Collect toys and give them out to children in his local community.

“He came home one day, he talked to me and his stepfather, and he said, ‘Mom, I want to help some kiddos in my class for Christmas,” remembers Angie Miller, Reed’s mother. “I said, ‘OK, what can we do?’ I told him he could do a little work, and he was like, ‘No, I want to give out toys.”

Reed Marcum at 11-Years-Old

(Angie Miller)

Started Out As a Small Idea
That first year, Reed’s small idea turned into a huge success, giving out around 5,000 toys at his stepfather’s law office. Little did this family know that was just the start of something grand.

“It was something we didn’t expect to do, especially have that much success and community reaction. They really loved it. We did not expect that,” Reed says.

J Michael Miller Toy Drive
What’s called the J Michael Miller Toy Drive has grown each year, even during COVID.

“What happened was COVID hit, and we had told Reed that it just can’t happen that year. And he said, ‘It can happen, Mom,’” Angie says.

And it did. With the help of the community, Reed moved the toy drive to Ragan’s Auto, a decision that helped this drive grow even more.

“He spoke with Mr. Ragan, and he told Reed we can do this. They moved all their cars out by noon that day. We moved in around 1:00, and we would set up all night long, and then we open the doors, they would start driving through,” Angie says.

The annual J. Michael Miller Toy Drive gave out 13,000 toys this year.

(SUNUP)

Within a couple years, they even outgrew that space. Last year, Reed moved his toy drive again, this time, to the McAlester Expo Center.

“We are orchestrating with the local Expo Center here in McAlester for people to come, and it’s just an amazing venue for what we’re doing here. And it’s an amazing process that we have to set up and do,” Reed says.

Biggest Toy Giveaway Yet
On Dec. 7,2024, Reed had his biggest giveaway yet.

“We collected a ton, but we were able to give out around 13,000 this year, that day,” Reed says.

What started as one small idea has brought generosity through toys that touched 13,000 lives this year alone.

“It’s a year-long process,” Angie says. “The entire year we’re looking for toys, collecting them and getting donations from people. But when the day gets near and close, it really starts to ramp up.”

Cars line up 3 to 4 miles long for the annual toy drive.

(Bryan Fuller)

Recipients Come From Surrounding States
Since 2016, this toy drive has given away more than 64,000 toys, an annual event that people wait in line for hours to receive. And as the event grows each year, lines of cars that now stretch three to four miles long, all with kids eager to receive toys that year.

“I was working the line this year, and we did see license plates from Texas and Arkansas. That’s normal,” says Greg Owen, Pittsburg County, Oklahoma 4-H educator. “I would ask the people in the line, ‘What was the experience like?’ And this year, I heard the comment ‘It was literally perfect.’”

Vital Volunteers
But for Reed, this wouldn’t be possible without volunteers, all 100 of them.

“They can help us move the toys from point A to point B when we’re holding them or in help, give the toys, help, walk the line, be dressed up in costumes to help entertain the kids, give out small items that go through the lines. The kids aren’t just sitting there bored,” Reed says.

Loss Turned Into Love
Reed’s toy drive has become a beloved experience attracting thousands of people from miles away. But this kid who has brought so much joy to others has also seen heartache along the way.

“He had the most difficult year of his life his junior year,” Angie says. “We were moving to Ragan’s that year, and on July 28, he lost his grandmother that he was extremely close to.”

Reed’s brother, Sergeant Miles Tarron

(SUNUP)

Not even four months later, Reed suffered another devastating loss, just weeks away from his toy drive in 2021.

“We were notified by soldiers that Reed’s brother had passed in the military,” Angie says. “I talked with Reed and I told him I didn’t think we can do the toy giveaway. And he said, ‘Mom, brother would want us to do the toy giveaway, so we’re going to do the toy giveaway.’”

And he did, with an entire community rallying around Reed as a way to give back to one of their own who had done so much.

“They helped us get it over to Ragan’s. We got it all set up. And then they just helped us all the way through it,” Angie says. “After that, Reed had already created the Hudson Strong Foundation for a little boy that had cancer. And they provided some help with the costs of the storage buildings. Then after his brother passed, Reed created the Sergeant Miles Tarron Foundation, and that supports his toy giveaway, his backpack giveaway and his silent auction. His brother always had a hand in supporting him and sending money. So, now the Sergeant Miles Tarron Foundation and the Hudson Strong Foundation support those storage buildings.”

Reed has nine storage buildings, all bursting with donated toys each year. But this success is also because of one lady Reed deeply admired: his 4-H leader, Miss Donna Curry.

“After he lost his brother, June 28, 2022, he lost Miss Donna Curry, who was like a second mother to him, who got him into 4-H, and she supported this project thoroughly,” Angie says.

Today, Reed doesn’t just give away toys. Miss Donna had another idea two years before she died: to give out pajamas, socks and undergarments to those in need.

“We named it Miss Donna’s Closet. And when they drive through the toy giveaway, they get the pajamas, they get socks, they get undergarments all through the toy line. They get snacks. And so when we lost Miss Donna, Reed promised at that point that he would carry her tradition on.”

Reed is Now Inspiring Others
Reed’s heart of service is always on display, and it’s now inspiring others.

“It’s literally the goal that we try to set for our 4-H members. We hope that they’ll develop a level of mastery in their project work, and for Reed, his project has been civic engagement,” Greg says. “And when they get to that point, we’ll hope we hope that they’ll utilize that to teach and impact others to follow in their footsteps, which is exactly what Reed has done.”

“That’s the best thing with 4-H; they always want you to strive to be the best version of yourself. And that’s something this project really does every year,” Reed says. “It’s not just staying the same or leveling out each year. It’s getting bigger and better than the last.”

True Gift of Giving
Reed’s one idea in 2016 continues to spread joy year-round, as it showcases the true gift of giving.

“Little 11-year-old Reed could never see such a thing happening, especially when I was so young and couldn’t even talk to a group of ten people, let alone do something like this. I never thought it would reach this,” Reed says.

“I always share this. That came from the idea of an 11-year-old child. That shows the impact of the 4-H program. That shows the impact of a student that wants to give, that wants to make a difference and wants to make a positive impact on their community,” Greg says.

Reed Accepts Donations Year-Round
In order to make the annual toy drive possible, Reed accepts donations year-round. If you’d like to contribute to the annual toy drive or Reed’s other service projects, you can donate here .

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Could Trump Actually Be Good for U.S. Ag Trade?

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 20:52:49 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump has released a slew of key cabinet and advisory picks at a historic pace the past two weeks, but the agriculture industry is waiting on two key selections — Secretary of Agriculture and the U.S. Trade Representative.

The Financial Times previously reported Robert Lighthizer could make an encore performance as the U.S. Trade Representative under Trump , but nothing official has been announced.

“Trump and Bob Lighthizer are two peas in a pod when it comes to using tariffs to get what they want in amongst our trading allies,” says Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer Washington correspondent.

If it’s a repeat of the last time, Lighthizer held that seat, there will be an increased focus on trade and using tariffs, which comes as no surprise since that was a major point on the campaign trail

“President-elect Trump was so strong on doing tariffs before that, it’s very likely that he’ll follow through now,” Mary Kay Thatcher, who’s the senior lead for federal government relations at Syngenta, told “AgDay’s” Michelle Rook. “I mean, he’s talked about at a minimum 20% tariffs on everybody. He’s talked about 60% on China, who will likely fall to two or three, but still a very important market. And he’s talked about putting them on Mexico. If Mexico doesn’t stop as many people coming across the border.”

Tariffs were the talk of the campaign trail, not just on commodities, but even ag equipment that’s imported on.

Ag groups want a focus back on trade, but they are also concerned it could come at a cost.

“Mexico, Canada, China are always our No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 three ag markets,” Thatcher says. “And so, a lot of concern in agricultural circles about the fact that most likely that’s where the retaliation starts first.”

Reality of a Growing Ag Trade Deficit

As tariff talk heats up, there are still tariffs in place today, and a growing ag trade deficit that’s glaring for U.S. agriculture. The ag trade deficit is expected to balloon to $42 billion in 2025, under the current administration. And Indiana farmer Kip Tom, who served as the ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump administration, argues the focus back on trade could bode well for ag.

“When Trump was president, we did nearly 50 trade deals around the world,” Tom told “AgDay’s” Clinton Griffiths in an interview. “He did the Phase One deal with China. And granted, we didn’t get to Phase Two or Phase Three, but the reality is he got to put together and he got started following the trade war that we had with him for a little bit. So, I think trade is going to be No. 1.”

Tom says Trump’s next four years will be looking at new trade deals, but today, groups like U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) also want any trade negotiations to do no harm, especially considering some meat exports have actually grown this year, in spite of the widening U.S. ag trade deficit.

“I think if you look at 2024 pork exports, we’re pulling our weight. We’re going to have record volume and record value this year, approaching $8.5 billion or so on the pork side,” says Dan Halstrom, CEO of USMEF.

Mexico Becomes U.S. Top Buyer

Halstrom says record demand from pork is broad based, but the No. 1 buyer is Mexico.

“Mexico is being driven by everything,” Halstrom says. “I mean, food service, retail, convenience stores. The buying power of the Mexican trade has been record breaking but also a little bit amazing.”

Earlier this year, Mexico bumped out China as the top trading partner for the U.S. But in the final days of Trump’s presidential campaign, he threated to impose 25% tariffs on all Mexican imports if Mexico didn’t tighten the border. And Mexico’s economy minister said it’s considering retaliatory tariffs of its own.

“I think as long as we don’t have any disruption, then yes, I think the strong export pace is very well positioned to continue,” Halstrom says. “Of course, you have new administrations coming in with a lot of talk about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). But as long as we stay within the confines of the USMCA agreement and follow that, I think we’re well positioned to continue this momentum in Mexico.”

Dairy and the Importance of USCMA

Another protein seeing positive demand from Mexico through the USMCA is dairy.

“When the administration first negotiated USMCA, which was do no harm to what’s working well, and for us, dairy continues to be overall a really positive relationship. So, working to help preserve that,” says Shawna Morris, executive vice president of trade policy and global affairs at National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and the U.S. Dairy Export Council.

The relationship with Mexico within USMCA has been a positive for dairy, but it’s the Canadian side of the agreement that needs work, according to Morris.

“I mean, they’re flat out not doing what they promised to do. And I just don’t see any way around calling them on the carpet for that,” Morris says. “Yes, they eked out a win in the last dispute settlement case the U.S. brought against them, but if one judge had changed their mind, though, we would have been on the winning side. It’s just a three-person panel. This isn’t gospel here; we’re talking about what Canada’s doing is shady. It needs fixed.”

She says between the way Canada administers the dairy tariff rate quota quantities to U.S. competitors, to their excessive exports of dairy protein, dairy is a piece of USMCA that needs to be addressed.

“The last administration tried to deal with that in USMCA,” Morris says. “We had some disciplines to try to tackle it in the agreement. And Canada has found some workarounds that both of those issues are going to need to be on the table. I think just in terms of UCMCA, it’s clean-up and follow through.”

The Biggest Wild Card: China

Even with southeast Asia, Latin America and Mexico carrying the weight for dairy exports, China is still the biggest wild card. We asked Morris if China does retaliate against Trump’s threatened 60% tariffs, if it would have the same impact as it did during the last trade war.

“China, even though it has pulled back on its global dairy imports, it’s still our third-largest export market,” Morris says. “So, it’s a pretty sizable market and difficult to place out into other markets the volume of that production, but I think what we also saw the first time around, in addition to the pain and disruption caused by the retaliatory tariffs that were imposed, was at the end of the process progress having been made.

Phase One Trade Deal with China

Progress in the form of the U.S. China Phase One agreement, which as Tom noted, was negotiated under Trump’s first term. Morris describes that deal as useful for dairy.

“We had a number of different non-tariff barriers, issues that were a drag on our ability to be able to reliably export to that market. And the phase one agreement included progress and dealt with a whole handful of those,” Morris says. “So, I’d say, yes, there’s upheaval. We’ve also seen from the first time around that that can yield significant progress in certain respects, and we’re hopeful that that’s more of what we’ll see this time around.”

China has also scaled back on their buys of U.S. pork, with exports down 11% so far this year, but Halstrom points out even with increased tariffs now entering the picture again, tariffs the past four years never went away.

“The thing to remember on these tariffs is, we’ve had a tariff now for quite a few years on China, on both beef and pork, and it’s not the ideal situation, but it doesn’t it doesn’t eliminate trade,” Halstrom says. “We ended up doing $2 billion in sales on beef with a tariff in 2022, I believe was the year. A lot of that came as a result of the phase one agreement in 2020, but people sometimes forget that there was a tariff involved, and we still had a pretty good outcome.”

Two weeks after the election, and Trump’s playbook seems to be unfolding quickly with all his cabinet picks. But some argue those tariffs might just be threats at first.

“Here’s what the Republicans tell me,” Wiesemeyer says. “Trump isn’t going to invoke these across-the-board tariffs right away. He’s going to use that as leverage to countries looking at their trade relationship with the U.S., and his key word is ‘reciprocity.’ If you don’t treat us like we treat you, then I’m going to invoke tariffs.”

Those close to Trump seem to be in alignment: the U.S. needs fair trade.

“When we’re spending $500 billion in China, and they’re only spending $350 billion with us, we need to level that out a little bit. And maybe it means more agriculture trade going into China to balance that trade out,” Tom says. “I’m very optimistic on trade with Trump. I have no doubts that we’ll get things put together. He knows farmers don’t like to get their money from the government; they like to get it from the market. And so, I’m really excited about that when we talk about trade. But yet, I know everybody’s pretty edgy about it at this point in time.”

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How Low Will We Go? USDA Expected To Cut Their 2024 Net Farm Income Forecast

Tue, 03 Sep 2024 18:42:32 GMT

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) will provide an updated 2024 net farm income forecast on Thursday. Even with improvements in livestock margins, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed the majority of ag economists expect the further deterioration in crop prices to weigh on the overall net farm income picture and force the agency to revise their forecast lower.

As the concerns about the ag economy pour in, there’s no doubt the ag economic picture has changed. The price of grain and oilseeds is down, while the livestock picture has improved since the beginning of the year.

Scott Brown, interim director, Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF), University of Missouri, points out the net farm income situation would look even worse if it weren’t for more positive prices in livestock.

“Let’s not forget, February was the last time they did their net farm income forecast. And a lot of things have changed from early this year to where we sit today,” Brown said. “I do expect some revisions. Crop receipts are going to be lower than what they would have said back at the start of the year. Cattle probably higher. Hogs probably higher. Dairy probably higher. But I also expect production expenses at least not to go up from where they were originally in the first part of the year. So I’m curious how all those different pieces balance out at the end of the day.”

The August Ag Economits’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the U.S., found:

Nearly 57% expect USDA to revise its forecast
Thirty-six percent think the revision will be 5% to 10% lower
Seven percent think USDA will leave its forecast unchanged from February

USDA is set to revise its 2024 Net Farm Income forecast in September.

(Lindsey Pound)

A Look Back at February

ERS gave its first glimpse at 2024 Net Farm Income in February with the Farm Sector Income & Finances: Farm Sector Income Forecast. At that time, the USDA ERS forecast showed net farm income to fall after reaching record highs in 2022.

The USDA ERS’ forecasts showed:

· Net farm income, which is a broad measure of profits, reached $185.5 billion in calendar year 2022 in nominal dollars.

· After decreasing by $29.7 billion (16%) from 2022 to a forecast $155.9 billion in 2023, net farm income in 2024 is forecast to decrease further from the 2023 level by $39.8 billion (25.5%) to $116.1 billion .

· Net cash farm income reached $202.3 billion in 2022. After decreasing by $41.8 billion (20.7%) from 2022 to a forecast $160.4 billion in 2023, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $38.7 billion (24.1%) to $121.7 billion in 2024.

The Ugly Truth

The reality is glaring. USDA’s net farm income forecast for 2024 is a $43 billion drop from 2023 to $116.1 billion. That is a 25.5% decline in just one year. What makes it even more jarring is that follows the 2023 net farm income figure, which saw a 16% drop from 2022. If USDA’s forecast holds true, that will mark the most significant two-year farm income decline in U.S. history.

“The $90-billion drop over a two-year period is certainly the largest dollar value drop, adjusted for inflation, that we’ve seen in our history,” said Ben Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri. “It exceeds the previous record set in the mid-1970s. When it comes to percentage changes, we’ve seen larger percentage changes. But you’d have to go all the way back to the Great Depression era and the early 1930s to find bigger percentage declines.”

Ben Brown also thinks USDA will revise it’s forecast lower in the upcoming report, possibly even revising their 2023 forecast, as well.

“The big change I think we could see in an update would be the 2023 farm income numbers revised lower even from where they were,” Ben Brown.

Your Next Reads: More Than 50% of Ag Economists Now Think the U.S. Ag Economy is Already In a Recession

The Ugly Truth: 2023 and 2024 Will Go Down As the Two Largest Declines in Net Farm Income Ever

More Than 50% of Ag Economists Now Think the U.S. Ag Economy is Already In a Recession

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 16:17:23 GMT

U.S. corn prices hit a four-year low as the prospect for record corn and soybean crops takes shape in the field. The eroding outlook also appeared in the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor as more economists are concerned U.S. agriculture is either already in a recession or on the brink of one, but economists point out if it weren’t for strong cattle prices, the ag economic picture would look even worse.

“When you look at, what we said for both, relative to last month or last year, some of the most pessimistic readings we’ve had, since we’ve been surveying here on 2024,” said Scott Brown, interim director, Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF), University of Missouri who also helps author the Monthly Monitor each month.

August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor tried to get a better gauge of the risk of financial stress in agriculture, and asked the more than 70 economists surveyed if agriculture is on the brink of a recession. Nearly 60% said “yes.”

“Maybe what was even more surprising to me is the responses to the question, ‘Are we already in a recession?’ More than 50% said ‘yes, we’re already in a recession.’ That’s a big change from where we were just 16 to 24 months ago, and it shows a lot of folks are worried about where we sit today.”

The Monthly Monitor also asked economists to provide more explanation of why they think the U.S. ag economy is already in a recession. Economists said:

“At least for most crop producers, the sharp drop in prices and cash receipts has resulted in lower net income and financial pressure on leveraged producers. The picture is generally less dire on the animal agriculture side of the ledger, as prices are up (cattle, milk) for some commodities and feed costs are declining.”
“I do think the U.S. ag economy is in a recession. The projection for 2023 and 2024 farm incomes in real dollars are the two largest declines in history. Costs exceed prices for most commodities. And the outlook doesn’t provide indication of improvement soon.”
“Farm incomes are down. Ag manufacturers are laying people off. Suppliers for those manufacturers are laying people off. What are the bright spots? Cattle, depending on the segment? Trade with Mexico? After that, the list gets pretty thin.”
“We aren’t in one yet, but we are on the brink of one.”
I think we’ll enter into a recession after the election.”

Cattle Are Helping the Overall Ag Economic Picture
As the concerns about the ag economy pour in, Brown points out the net farm income situation would look even worse if it weren’t for more positive prices in livestock.

“Cattle prices, I think, have been helpful in pulling it up. At the same time, we see corn and soybean prices continue to move lower,” Brown says. “We know crop receipts are going to be lower than what they would have said back at the start of the year, cattle probably higher, hogs probably higher and dairy probably higher. But economists also expect production expenses to not go up from where they were originally during the first part of the year.”

Net Farm Income Could Fall Further
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) gave its first glimpse at 2024 Net Farm Income in February with the Farm Sector Income & Finances: Farm Sector Income Forecast. At that time, USDA ERS’ forecast showed net farm income to fall after reaching record highs in 2022.

USDA ERS’ forecasts showed:

· Net farm income, which is a broad measure of profits, reached $185.5 billion in calendar year 2022 in nominal dollars.
· After decreasing by $29.7 billion (16.0%) from 2022 to a forecast $155.9 billion in 2023, net farm income in 2024 is forecast to decrease further from the 2023 level by $39.8 billion (25.5%) to $116.1 billion .
· Net cash farm income reached $202.3 billion in 2022. After decreasing by $41.8 billion (20.7%) from 2022 to a forecast $160.4 billion in 2023, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $38.7 billion (24.1%) to $121.7 billion in 2024.

USDA is set to revise its 2024 Net Farm Income forecast in September.

(Lindsey Pound)

ERS will provide an updated 2024 forecast in September. Even with improvements in livestock margins, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed the majority of ag economists expect the further deterioration in crop prices to weigh on the overall net farm income picture and force the agency to revise their forecast lower.

· Nearly 57% expect USDA to revise its forecast
· 36% think the revision will be 5% to 10% lower
· 7% think USDA will leave its forecast unchanged from February.

What Will Impact Crop Prices Over Next 6 Months
The August Monthly Monitor also asked economists to outline what will impact crop prices over the next six months. Economists said:

Growing crop size and limited exports
Bioenergy and feed demand
South America’s weather and crop size, specifically the second crop final production numbers and plantings for the first crop
Potential for new tariffs and relations with China
Fertilizer prices and the impact on 2025 acreage.

What Will Impact Cattle Prices Over Next 6 Months
With a more bullish outlook for cattle, the August survey asked economists what will impact cattle prices over the next six months.

Weaker demand
Lower corn prices
Possibility of tighter cattle numbers

“I think the supply fundamentals are essentially unchanged since this spring. The big question is demand. If we have an economy-wide recession, what happens to beef demand,” responded one economist in the anonymous monthly survey.

What to Watch
From geopolitics to the evolving situation in supply and demand across all commodities, the Monthly Monitor asked economists to outline the factors not being covered enough in the media.

“Deterioration in liquidity.”
“Growing gap between the situation for crop and livestock producers.”
“Impact of a Trump vs. Harris win and misconceptions around who is better for the farm economy.”
“Continued high cost for many ag inputs.”
“I’m frustrated by the continued pressure on U.S. farmers to be more sustainable which often results in higher farm costs and could lead to more regulation or hoops to jump through or reduced production. At the same time, South American producers continue to rapidly expand production in a less sustainable way. I’m also concerned that this will lead to vertical integration in crop farming.”
“The cataclysmic risk of rising tariffs.”
“Will congress set in to support farm incomes at these levels? ARC/PLC are ineffective at this point. Ad hoc spending has been rampant.”
“Inflation.”
“Possible government farm program payments this fall (last year’s crop year).”
“Fund manager use of Algo computers.”

Your Next Read: The Ugly Truth: 2023 and 2024 Will Go Down As the Two Largest Declines in Net Farm Income Ever

EXCLUSIVE: John Deere Speaks Publicly For the First Time About Layoffs, New Challenges in the Ag Economy

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 14:14:35 GMT

John Deere recently laid off a significant number of salaried employees as part of the company’s ongoing workforce reductions. The official number of layoffs is still unknown but are part of a broader trend of workforce reductions at John Deere, which have been ongoing for several months.

Cory Reed, president of the company’s Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division for Production and Precision Ag , spoke publicly about the layoffs for the first time in an exclusive interview with U.S. Farm Report this week.

What You Need to Know

Reed addressed everything from the recent layoffs to the company’s decision to move a small portion of its production to Mexico. Here are highlights from Farm Journal’s exclusive interview:

John Deere says recent layoffs of both its salaried and production workforce are due to lower net farm income, higher interest rates and market volatility.
Reed says John Deere expects equipment sales to be down 20% in 2024, due to economic pressures on the farm.
John Deere is addressing cost concerns by reducing the prices of some new technologies, such as the See & Spray retrofit kit.
John Deere is investing in automation to improve manufacturing efficiency and reliability.
Reed emphasized the job cuts are unrelated to the 2021 strike by production workers.
He also stressed that John Deere’s decision to move its cab production to Mexico is separate, saying that production site in Mexico has been in operation for nearly 70 years, calling it “an important part of our global footprint.”

The Reality of the Farm Economy

USDA is forecasting net farm income in 2024 to be $116.1 billion, which is a 25.5% drop from 2023 following a 16% drop in 2023 versus 2022. Those two consecutive years of significant decline mark the largest drop in net farm income in U.S. history.

“Net farm income is expected to be down in the mid to high 20s, and when that happens, and commodity prices pull back, interest rates are a little bit higher and we see volatility in the weather, it creates uncertainty that interrupts demand. We’re experiencing that today. Looking out across our industry, we’re expecting to be off roughly 20% year-over-year from 2023,” Reed told U.S. Farm Report.

USDA’s 2023 and 2024 Net Farm Income projections point to the largest drop in history.

(Lori Hayes )

The mounting economic pressures are showing up across the equipment industry. The latest Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) flash report released in June showed just how drastic of a drop the ag equipment sector is currently experiencing. AEM’s report showed combine sales in June dropped 31% compared to last year. Total farm tractor sales were down 16%.

While the company forecasts equipment demand to fall 20% overall in 2024, Reed says the second half of the year looks to be even more challenging than the first.

“We kind of have the tale of two ends of the year, “ he says. “If you looked at the front half of the year, in fact, if you took the large row-crop tractor business, what you would have seen is a market that was still peaking in the April and May time frame. A lot of buyers were in the market, based off of performance last year. As we hit May and going into June, used inventory levels started to grow and you saw buyers starting to pull back. Those trade differentials look different for them, and they started pulling back at a faster rate.”

As farmers pull back on purchasing new equipment, the short-term market outlook is hard to project, according to John Deere.

“I think what you see is markets that are cycling faster today. When you see what was going on in the commodity market, it’s been more volatile here recently. So obviously, we’d like to have better predictability of those things. What I would tell you is the long-term outlook for global commodities grown here in the U.S. still look really strong. We’re still bullish on that,” Reed says. “It’s the reason that even when we see these cycles potentially coming, we invest directly through them. We’ve never invested more in research dollars than we did this year, and in the next five years we will invest more than we have over the past five years. That’s a testament to what we believe about the future of the agricultural industry. We’re doing that around the world.”

John Deere Says Layoffs Are Unrelated to 2021 Strike

With the drop in equipment demand, came cuts to the salaried workforce this week. But the company had already cut more than 1,800 workers in its Iowa and Illinois production facilities.

In October 2021, those same production sites were in the news after 10,000 production workers went on strike . But a month later, John Deere and the United Auto Workers (UAW) Union reached a new six-year deal. With a 20% increase in pay granted by John Deere, UAW ended its month-long strike. But Reed says the job cuts today are not tied to that.

“Certainly, cost, availability and reliability of labor in the workforce is a factor all the time. Cuts right now are not related to that, they’re related to demand,” he adds.

As a result, Reed says John Deere is turning internally to manage its own cost structure, which means layoffs. Those started last September and have accelerated in 2024.

“We don’t like making workforce adjustments. We don’t. But that’s all about the cost structure we have, so we can hold the line on costs. We’re deploying more of our engineering resources to cost-reduce each part without sacrificing any reliability, durability or quality. We’re doing that in a big way,” Reeds adds.

John Deere has committed to providing severance packages to the affected employees. The packages include up to 12 months of severance pay based on years of service, pro-rated pay based on short- and long-term incentives, payment for unused vacation or paid time off, ongoing access to health and wellness benefits and a year of professional job placement services.

The Question on Every Farmer’s Mind

The question on every farmer’s mind: Does John Deere have any plans to cut the price of equipment? Reed says John Deere is addressing cost concerns by reducing the prices of some new technologies, such as the See & Spray retrofit kit.

“We’re taking some of our latest technologies, and we’re cutting the upfront price of it,” Reed says. “If you take See & Spray, which is a great example, that product would normally cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to add to a machine. We lowered the upfront price for a retrofit kit to be able to put it on for tens of thousands of dollars. A customer who wants to manage their herbicide cost differently has the opportunity to buy into that, on an acre-by-acre basis, and only pay based on what they save.”

John Deere’s Decision to Move Cab Production to Mexico

John Deere is also catching some backlash for its decision to move its cab operations from Waterloo, Iowa, to Mexico, which impacts a couple hundred U.S. jobs. According to Reed, John Deere’s production site in Mexico has been in operation for nearly 70 years. What started in 1956 became one of the company’s first operations outside the U.S., and Reed calls it “an important part of our global footprint.”

“First and foremost, it’s important to understand that the movement of certain components or products to Mexico is entirely separate from what we’ve seen in terms of layoffs today,” Reed says. “When we move a product, we make the announcement and say, ‘This portion of this product is going to move here.’ And by the way, we’re doing that all the time. It’s a part of what we do in our global network.”

Reed says what’s not reported when John Deere makes such an announcement is how they are replacing their production in the U.S. with the manufacturing of a new product or piece of equipment. While the cab production might be moving to Mexico, he says they are now building the new 9RX 830-hp four-wheel drive tractor there.

“If you drove to Waterloo today and went into the operations, what you’d see is that brand new tractor going down the very place in the factory where those cabs were manufactured before,” Reed says.

What John Deere Wants Farmers to Know

As John Deere aims to align production inventory levels with current market demands, the down cycle of agriculture is hitting all of the industry hard, but Reed says he’s still bullish on agriculture long-term. When asked what he wanted farmers to know, Reed’s message was this:

“We have 80,000 employees in the company. We wake up every day with the same purpose. That purpose is quality, innovation, integrity and commitment to our customers. We want to grow value on each and every one of those farms. We want to do it in a way that every day they wake up, with every pass they make through the field, they have confidence they’ve partnered with someone in the industry, John Deere and our John Deere dealers, working to drive value, working to drive profitability, on each and every one of their farms,” Reed says.

You can watch the full interview with Reed here.

2024 Could Go Down as the Worst Financial Year for Farmers Since 2007

Farmers are seeing heightened volatility in commodity prices as harvest season progresses. The lates t Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor from Farm Journal showed a slight rise in optimism compared to the previous month, but economists remain worried about the current state of the agricultural economy when compared to last year.

“The margins that farmers are facing on average are really a tough place to be in for 2022 to 2024,” says Krista Swanson, lead economist for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). “According to USDA, the cost to produce corn dropped 5%, but the price was down 37%. And when we look at those average numbers from USDA, looking at cost of production for corn prices and yield, that comes out to average losses of $125 per acre.”

Revised Projections on Net Farm Income for 2024

USDA’s revised Net Farm Income projections were released in early September, and the updated figures were surprising to many economists. The new numbers show net cash farm income for the 2024 calendar year will fall $12 billion, which is down about 7% from 2023, and net farm income will fall $6.5 billion or 4.4%. This is compared to projections released in February of this year which suggested net farm income would fall 26%.

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, which is an anonymous survey of nearly 70 economists, asked those economists, “What was the most interesting thing you noticed in USDA’s September Farm Income update?” Economists weren’t surprised the livestock picture improved from the February report, but they pointed out the following:

“Increase in farm asset value and equity.”
“The ‘dog that didn’t bark.’ Many people expected a more dire picture in 2024, but the drop in crop prices was only a little more severe than earlier expected, and the necessary downward correction in estimates of 2024 feed costs (the earlier estimate was unreasonably high, given what was known about feed prices at the time) helped moderate overall 2024 costs. There were also adjustments upward in receipts for crops other than grains and oilseeds that boosted the receipt and income figures.”
“The simultaneous downward revision in the net farm income estimate for 2023 paired with the upward net farm income forecast for 2024, causing the year-over-year 2023-2024 decline to shrink substantially.”

Input Costs and Breakeven Challenges for Farmers

One issue in the row crop sector is the fact input costs are still a weight on balance sheets. Michael Langemeier, Purdue University agricultural economist, said that means the breakeven price for farmers is higher than the price of corn today.

“Even with the really strong yields we’re looking at this year, we’re looking at a breakeven price of $4.70. It’s that combination of a drop in prices and the fact that input costs are relatively high, that I think is just explaining why sentiment is so low.”

Michael Langemeier, Purdue University

Farmers are looking at ways to cut costs even more for the 2025 growing season. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked if farmers will cut back on fall fertilizer. Seventy percent of them said “yes.”

“I think a lot of farmers have already made some trims to fertilizer, where they probably can for the ’24 year. And so you run up on this situation where a lot of times fertility in the soil is supported well enough that if you’re in a high-cost year, you can trim back some and still have good yields. But you only do that for so long,” Swanson says. “That also may cause some farmers to shift to soybeans.”

The Septemeber Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked if economists will cut back on fall fertilizer applications.

(Lindsey Pound/Farm Journal)

Potential Recession in the Agricultural Sector

The survey also asked if agriculture is on the brink of a recession. Seventy-five percent said yes, which is up from the 56% who responded that way in the previous month’s survey. However, 54% of economists argue agriculture is already in a recession, with some economists pointing to only the crop sector seeing recession concerns.

“I think yes, and it depends on how you define a recession. I define a recession as this is one of the worst years we’ve seen in the last 20. So my short answer to the question is yes. Just looking at where the price is currently at, this is about the worst year since 2007, which was the start of the ethanol boom.”

Michael Langemeier, Purdue University

When asked if the economy was on the brink of a recession, 25% of economists responded with “no.” It’s clear not all economists are in agreement, but when asked to expand on why, economists said:

“Financial health is weaker but still pretty strong.”
“For select crops and regions of the country farmers are facing significant financial pressure.”
“The cost-price squeeze facing the crop sector is severe and will have larger implications if it persists. Many crop producers were profitable in 2021 and especially 2022, so they had some ability to absorb a more challenging environment over the last two years. But that ability is running out, especially for producers who rent much of the land they operate or who are heavily indebted.”
“Over-production globally and exports are soft, while biofuel policy does not support consumption of surplus.”
“The farm structures across all farms does not suggest a recession. A higher portion of farms have off-farm income to support cyclical changes. Most farms have healthy balance sheets (thanks to increased land values), and there are positive returns in certain sectors of the industry supporting those that are diversified. Areas of the ag economy that will struggle are those that are highly or fully concentrated in row crops, are full-time commercial operations between 1,000 and 2,000 acres, and have a high proportion of cash-rented acres.”
“Highly-leveraged producers are feeling economic pain already. If supplies continue to remain large, lower prices may last for a longer period of time and could result in highly-leveraged producers leaving the industry.”
“The livestock sector, specifically cattle and dairy, is performing well relative to hogs and the crop sector.”

September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound/Farm Journal)

The economists were even more divided when it came to answering whether the ag economy is already in a recession. Economists said:

“The challenges faced by the crop sector are at least partially offset by a more positive story for cattle producers, in particular. For other animal sector producers, the drop in feed costs has made 2024 a little better than 2023.”
“Farmers are already feeling the pinch, and they are looking for ways to slash expenses.”
“Lenders in our state are very concerned about the outcomes for this year and the outlook for next year.”

Livestock and Dairy Prices Outlook for the Next Six Months

Cattle and dairy prices are stronger than crops. The survey asked economists, “What factor(s) are you watching that you expect will impact livestock and dairy prices in the next six months?” Economists said:

The outcome of the 2024 election
Drought
Health of the ag economy
Meat demand at restaurants
Feed costs
High beef prices and the impact on beef and pork demand

Key Factors Affecting Crop Prices

The survey then asked economists to list the factors they’re watching that could impact crop prices over the next six months. Economists responded by saying:

Final 2024 U.S. crop production numbers
South American weather
Fall planting in South America (timing and acreage)
China’s economy/geopolitical tensions
Policy changes after the election (tariffs, impact on trade and biofuel policies)

Discovering New Corn Demand

Low prices cure low prices, and that’s the case for corn. The corn demand has picked up pace due to the U.S. price being more attractive than Brazil’s. Swanson says in order for prices to see a bigger boost, the U.S. will need to find new demand.

“I think when we talk about an immediate help, or immediate action, it’s definitely higher blends of ethanol,” Swanson says. “We are getting outrun by other nations in this. We just saw last week Brazil pass a new piece of legislation that allowed for higher blends there. They already have higher blends than us. And again, other nations are using higher blends than we are.”

Tariffs and Trade: A Continued Debate

The September Ag Economists Monthly Monitor, a Farm Journal survey of nearly 70 ag economists, revealed a mixed view of the presidential candidates’ impact on trade.

(Lindsey Pound)

Another area is exploring new export demand. Ag economists pointed out the outcome of the election could impact both crop and livestock prices. The September Monthly Monitor asked economists if the two presidential candidates would help or hurt trade.

55% said a Harris administration would hurt trade.
86% percent of economists said a Trump administration would hurt U.S. trade.

“Farmers are definitely concerned about trade,” says Langemeir, who helps author the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer and is one of the economists surveyed by Farm Journal each month. “We don’t ask specific questions related to tariffs in the Ag Economy Barometer, but one question we do ask is if they expect exports to increase, decrease or stay the same? Really, this is the most pessimistic they’ve been for about five years with regard to trade.”

Tariffs are a tool both the former Trump administration and the current Biden/Harris administration have used.

During the first presidential debate, Trump didn’t waver from his staunch stance on tariffs and trade, reiterating his plan to use tariffs to protect U.S. industries and increase revenues. Trump reinforced his plan to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on goods from China.

During the debate, Harris stated tariffs are essentially a “sales tax” on American households. The Biden/Harris administration recently extended the Trump-era tariffs, while also imposing its own set of tariffs in May. Biden directed the U.S. Trade Representative to “increase tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on $18 billion of imports from China to protect American workers and businesses.”

“That’s why I get really worried when both candidates start talking about tariffs. It’s really uncharted waters, if you will. There’s already the perception we’re struggling a little bit with trade. As we enter these uncertain waters, we’re going to struggle more,” Langemeier explained.

Do Tariffs Work?

The controversy over tariffs and whether they’re a good trade policy tool is long-standing. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists: “Do tariffs work in trade policy?” Economists views were mixed:

“Tariffs can work in trade policy — that’s why nations continue to use them. The complex part that extends beyond the tariff action is potential long-term repercussions that can result from trade-flow changes.”
“In limited cases, typically only if they result in a policy response in the targeted country. Much of the time, tariffs are like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.”
“Tariffs provide short-term gains but have always failed relative to free trade in the long-term.”
“Absolutely, when properly applied.”
“Not over the long-term. They tend to affect who gets to supply different markets around the world.”

The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked: “When tariffs are used as a ‘tool’ in trade, who pays the tariff?” Not all economists were aligned on that answer either, saying sometimes it’s farmers and consumers, but it can also be the exporting countries.

“When the U.S. imposes tariffs on imports, importers in the U.S. pay taxes to the U.S. government on their purchases from abroad. When another nation imposes tariffs, importers in that nation pay import taxes to their government on their purchases from abroad. Often, when a tariff is implemented, another nation retaliates, and you end up with importers in both nations paying the price on whatever products the tariffs apply toward.”
“If an importing country places a tariff on the exporting country, producers in the exporting country and consumers in the importing country both lose (i.e., receive lower and higher prices, respectively). Conversely, producers in the importing country and consumers in the exporting country win (i.e., receive higher and lower prices, respectively).”
“In the short run, consumers who purchase goods with a tariff might see higher prices if the tariff is not absorbed elsewhere. In the long run, the tariff might result in changes to the supply chain that result in higher prices but also create other economic opportunities in America (e.g. reshoring of domestic manufacturing).”
“The correct economist answer is ‘it depends.’ Tariffs drive a wedge between prices in the exporting country and in the importing country. It depends on the circumstances of particular markets and how much is reflected in higher prices in the importing country and reduced prices in the exporting country.”
“Both the exporting nation and the importing consumer pay some portion of the tariff depending on who has more flexibility to adjust to a trade barrier. If exporting countries can easily switch to supplying other markets, they won’t have to ‘pay.’ If consumers can easily find cheap substitute goods, they won’t have to pay.

Conclusion: A Complex Road Ahead for U.S. Agriculture

As U.S. agriculture faces multiple challenges, from high input costs to volatile prices and geopolitical concerns, farmers are forced to find new ways to adapt. Economists emphasize the need for new demand sources, particularly in exports, to help stabilize prices and support the sector moving forward. With the outcome of the 2024 election and global market dynamics set to play pivotal roles, the agricultural sector will need to remain flexible to navigate these uncertain times.

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