Tornado

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:50 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Oklahoma Tornadoes Destroy Landscape, But Not Community Spirit

Wed, 01 May 2024 15:15:49 GMT

Not much was left in the communities of Sulphur and Holdenville, Okla., after killer tornados struck the towns located southeast of Oklahoma City on April 28. In Holdenville, two people died in the twister, including an infant, The Weather Channel reports . One victim was found in the hard-hit town of Sulphur. One death was confirmed in Marietta. The tornado, determined to be at least an EF3, caused widespread damage to homes and businesses. Oklahoma Pork Council immediately stepped up to help the state through an unimaginably challenging time by providing free pork meals.

At Robinson Family Farms in Holdenville, the storms caused structural damage to several barns. This disruption has affected not only the physical infrastructure but also the daily operations and well-being of the animals housed there, explains Kylee Deniz, executive director of the Oklahoma Pork Council.

“The extent of the damage underscores the challenges faced by our producers in the wake of such natural disasters,” she says.

^{Devastating scenes like this dot the Oklahoma landscape this week. Photo by Oklahoma Pork Council.}

On Sunday, Joe Locke, Oklahoma Pork Council president-elect, had the Oklahoma Pork Council smoker rolling by noon to serve food in his hometown of Marietta, Okla. He continued to cook pork until dinner on Monday, providing much-needed meals to the community that is still grappling with power outages. This act of service underscores Oklahoma Pork Council’s commitment not just as an organization but as individuals deeply rooted in and dedicated to the well-being of their fellow Oklahomans, he explains.

“It’s crucial for the pork industry to embody the role of good neighbors due to our significant presence in Oklahoma’s agricultural landscape, where pork ranks as the second largest enterprise. More importantly, we are integral members of the communities surrounding our farms. Our farmers strive to exceed the expectations of merely being good neighbors; they are vital contributors to the fabric of rural Oklahoma communities,” Locke says. “We are more than pig farmers — we are proud Oklahomans, deeply committed to the welfare of our animals, our people, our communities and our land.”

^{Pork producers hand out meals to storm victims in Sulphur. Photo by Oklahoma Pork Council.}

On Monday, Oklahoma Pork Council showed up with food truck partner, Newman’s Firehouse BBQ, in Holdenville to hand out 1,600 free pork meals.

“Within 50 miles of the Holdenville community, there are 80,000 sows within the Tyson Foods system. The majority of these sows are cared for by local farmers who contract with Tyson Foods,” Deniz says. “Behind our large pig footprint in western Oklahoma, around Holdenville would be the second most prevalence of pigs in the state of Oklahoma.”

^{Oklahoma Pork Council collaborated with Newman’s Firehouse BBQ to serve free pork meals in Holdenville. Photo by Oklahoma Pork Council.}

On Tuesday, they served 800 free pork meals in partnership with Operation BBQ Relief and Newman’s Firehouse BBQ at the WalMart in Sulphur, Okla.

Ben E. Keith and the Community Food Bank of Eastern Oklahoma, along with Operation BBQ, arranged for an additional fresh pork product delivery to Sulphur. The Community Food Bank of Eastern Oklahoma’s CEO, Jeff Marlow, arranged for a refrigerated truck loaded with vegetables to be driven to Sulphur and staying on site at the Walmart in Sulphur through the week. Ben E. Keith’s Emily Melton arranged for a special delivery of pork purchased by Oklahoma pig farmers via Oklahoma Pork to fill the reefer truck. As well, Oklahoma Pork purchased 10 cases of pork loins and 10 cases of pork butts, meaning thousands of more meals for Sulphur residents to be prepared by Operation BBQ tonight for dinner and through the balance of this week.

^{Oklahoma Pork Council Executive Director Kylee Deniz hands out meals to volunteers in Sulphur. Photo by Oklahoma Pork Council.}

“The Oklahoma Pork Board and staff recognize the urgent needs of communities affected by the recent storms and are actively fulfilling them. Sulphur and Holdenville, dense pork-producing regions of Oklahoma, have received significant support from local communities, which is vital for our producers’ daily operations. In response to the crisis, our board members and staff were compelled to band together to assist these areas,” Deniz says. “By doing so, Oklahoma Pork and its partners are not only addressing immediate needs but also reinforcing the bonds of the community. This effort exemplifies the spirit of ‘One Oklahoma,’ characterized by unity and collective resilience.”

^{Community members grabbing a sandwich and drink in Holdenville. Photo by Oklahoma Pork Council.}

Locke says Oklahoma Pork Council’s commitment to Oklahoma informs and inspires every aspect of their organization’s operations.

“For our farmers, being good neighbors is fundamentally about caring for our friends and family, which naturally includes our neighbors. This approach fosters a strong community spirit and ensures that our practices reflect the values we cherish as Oklahomans,” he says.

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Is Your Farm Prepared When Bad Weather Strikes?

The Day Derecho Hit Our Farm

Is Your Farm Prepared When Bad Weather Strikes?

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 18:57:37 GMT

Now that warmer temperatures are upon us, so is spring storm season. The wild display of weather this year has showcased flooding, tornadoes and more from coast to coast. This unpredictable weather underscores the importance of having a plan and be ready for whatever severe weather pattern could hit your farm.

Severe weather can be a detriment to your farm. Before bad weather hits, Country Financial offers the following tips to prepare your farm.

Take Inventory. Taking photos is a great way to inventory your belongings. Move cattle, feed, and equipment to higher ground in case of flooding, if possible. Stock up on extra farm supplies ahead of severe weather, like water and livestock feed.
Prepare Employees. Review emergency escape routes for each building. Remember this plan might differ depending on the weather event. Document procedures to account for employees. Create an emergency contact list for owners, employees, family members and supplies. Assign different roles and responsibilities to all employees, like who is responsible for calling emergency contacts.
Check Equipment. Ensure generators are in working order, turn off the propane supply at tanks and close any open chemical containers.
Check Insurance Protection. Meet with your insurance rep to ensure everything you own is properly protected. Also, discuss the process for filing a claim if a disaster strikes.

The Farm Bureau Financial Services offers these safety tips regarding tornados and flash flooding.

Tornadoes

On average, each year, 1,300 tornadoes are reported in the United States, and cause millions of dollars worth of damage. With winds that can reach over 250 miles per hour and the potential to travel up to 50 miles, tornadoes have a destructive potential that often puts them in the headlines. In the face of such a huge force of nature, what do you do?

Don’t remain in your tractor or vehicle. Find a low-lying area, such as a ditch, and cover your head with your arms to protect yourself from flying debris.
Don’t try to outrun a tornado with your vehicle.
Do have a plan for which buildings on your property provide the most protection. Basements are best, of course, but if you’re caught out during a tornado, a building with a strong inner structure, such as a barn, can be a safe haven. If you can, stay away from the outside walls of the building you take shelter in.

Flash Flooding

Intensifying rainfall has caused nearly multi billions in damage in the U.S. in the last few decades. Floods can be sudden and powerful, giving you little time to prepare. If you are confronted with flash flooding, there are a few tips to keep in mind:

Don’t attempt to drive through water over the road. You have no idea how deep it may be, and it only takes 6 inches of water to sweep a vehicle away.
Do avoid low-lying areas in your fields or on your property. During a torrential downpour, all that water has to go somewhere. You don’t want to be there when it arrives.
Do have an evacuation plan in place for your livestock, should you need to move them to higher ground.

Is ‘Tornado Alley’ Expanding East?

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 20:44:58 GMT

Tornados are nature’s most violent storms. Typically spawned from powerful thunderstorms, these destructive forces of nature can cause fatalities, detrimental damage, and wipe out neighborhoods in a mere matter of seconds.

Since the term was first coined in 1952, “Tornado Alley” has traditionally been located throughout portions of the central U.S., typically from north-central Texas to South Dakota. Tornados are most frequent in this region and have an increased chance of being more destructive.

However, science shows this tornado prone area may be expanding east.

According to a 2018 study , tornado frequency has decreased over the past four decades across Tornado Alley, while increasing just to the east across the Lower Great Lakes and into the Deep South.

Tornado Frequency

(Farm Journal)

The study also reports negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast U.S.

Though trends point to fewer tornado occurrences in the Great Plains, AgDay meteorologist Matt Yarosewick warns that the risk for tornadic weather isn’t necessarily declining.

“The United States is the most active spot on the globe for tornadoes,” Yarosewick says. “The climate, the geography and all those ingredients are always in play. There will always be tons of talk about the number of tornadoes or the intensity. It is all due to the warming climate and the overall larger moisture content in the atmosphere. Most early season severe weather outbreaks are occurring east of “tornado alley.” That is because the east is more active in the springtime with storm fronts whereas “tornado alley” is infamous for the dry line setups on hot summer says. Different times of the year will bring many different setups.”

Along with tornadic weather conditions expanding east, frequency is also increasing.

“The conditions needed for tornadoes are occurring more frequently due to the warming of the planet and the moisture content in the air,” Yarosewick says. “These stronger storm systems feed off of all of those types of conditions and will then, in turn, produce stronger storms and potentially more tornadoes due to the frequency of the events.”

As severe weather begins to ramp up across the U.S., it’s important to keep tornado safety at the top of mind. Planning ahead will lower the chance of injury or death in the event severe weather strikes.

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Prepare Now for Livestock Disasters and Emergencies

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:13:58 GMT

Whether it is a wildfire, flood, tornado or an overturned truck, when disasters strike cattle operations, it can be difficult to see any “silver linings.” Beyond the bad news though, we find a couple positive outcomes. First, neighbors, friends, professional colleagues and even total strangers invariably join forces to help in any ways they can. Next, we can all learn from the experience, either directly or indirectly, and apply that knowledge to minimize the damage next time a disaster strikes.

With those outcomes in mind, a group of veterinarians and industry professionals, all with experience in livestock disasters and emergencies, joined forces to compile “ Responding to Natural Disasters and Emergencies in Beef Production ,” a 13-chapter guide published in the July 2018 issue of Veterinary Clinics: Food Animal Practice.

The project began after the March 2017 Starbuck Wildfire along the Kansas and Oklahoma border burned over 800,000 acres, destroying homes, fences and other facilities, killing thousands of cattle and displacing thousands more. Veterinarians Dan Thomson, at Kansas State University, Bob Smith, a consultant from Oklahoma and Christine Navarre at Louisiana State University planned the guide and identified veterinarians and industry professionals from around the country, all with direct experience in livestock disasters ranging from fires and hurricanes to blizzards and highway accidents. Dr. Smith served as consulting editor, and Drs. Thomson and Navarre served as editors and wrote the guide’s introduction.

“As we made our list of topics, we thought about our colleagues, friends, producers, and people who had expertise in these areas from firsthand experience to extensive training in food animal rescue and medicine,” Navarre and Thomson write. “Each article partners veterinarians from private practice, academia, and government organizations to bring practical, straightforward guidance on natural disasters. We are thankful for the great response and expertise that volunteered to complete this issue of Veterinary Clinics of North America: Food Animal Practice.”

Chapters and authors include:

Preface: Responding to Natural Disasters and Emergencies in Beef Production: Dan Thomson and Christine Navarre
Communication and Working with Authorities During Natural Disasters: Dee Ellis, Rebecca McConnico, and Jimmy Tickel
Cattle Assessment On-Site During Emergencies: Arthur Lee Jones, Renée Dawn Dewell, and Joanna Davis
Feeding and Watering Beef Cattle During Disasters: Justin W. Waggoner and K.C. Olson
Tornado Preparation and Response in Feedlot Cattle: Samantha L. Boyajian, Nels N. Lindberg, and David P. Gnad
Blizzards and Range Cattle: Management Before, During, and After the Storm: Russ Daly and Cynthia Marshall Faux
Management of Confined Cattle in Blizzard Conditions: David B. Sjeklocha
Wildfire Response in Range Cattle: David N. Rethorst, Randall K. Spare, and John L. Kellenberger
Preparation and Response to Truck Accidents on Highways Involving Cattle: Lisa Pederson, Jerry Yates, and Audry Wieman
Preparation and Response for Flooding Events in Beef Cattle: Wesley Bissett Jr, Carla Huston, and Christine B. Navarre
Managing Heat Stress Episodes in Confined Cattle: Kevin F. Sullivan and Terry L. Mader
Foreign Animal Disease Outbreaks: Danelle A. Bickett-Weddle, Michael W. Sanderson, and Elizabeth J. Parker
Humane Euthanasia and Carcass Disposal: Jan K. Shearer, Dee Griffin, and Scott E. Cotton
Mental Health During Environmental Crisis and Mass Incident Disasters: Erin Wasson and Audry Wieman

In Livestock Disasters and Emergencies, quick decisions, coordination and teamwork are critical. This guide draws on first-hand experiences of the contributing authors, along with their expertise in veterinary medicine, cattle management and animal welfare to enhance preparation, response and overall outcomes.

Learn more or subscribe for access from Veterinary Clinics: Food Animal Practice .