Soybean News

Red Meat Exports Add Over $3 Billion in Value to U.S. Corn and Soybeans in 2025

Fri, 15 May 2026 20:05:40 GMT

U.S. red meat exports emerged as a multi-billion dollar engine for domestic grain producers in 2025, adding more than $3 billion in combined market value to corn and soybean crops. According to a new study by the Juday Group and the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the global demand for American beef and pork accounted for over 600 million bushels of grain usage, effectively boosting the price of corn by $0.58 per bushel and soybeans by $1.05 per bushel.

“Red meat exports bring significant value to corn and soybean producers by driving demand for feed,” says USMEF Chair-Elect Dave Bruntz, who raises corn, soybeans and cattle in south-central Nebraska. “This study shows that red meat exports accounted for more than 500 million bushels of corn usage and nearly 100 million bushels of soybeans in 2025.”

From a national perspective, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.18 billion in market value to corn producers in 2025, $1 billion to soybean producers and $375 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), according to the study. U.S. beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5% per bushel to the value of corn and 10.3% per bushel to soybeans in 2025.

“We initiate this study every year because it quantifies the value that beef and pork exports bring to the red meat supply chain. This added value is why a diverse range of ag industry sectors work together through USMEF to build global demand for U.S. red meat,” says USMEF Senior Vice President John Hinners.

Key findings from the study, which utilized 2025 statistics provided by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and data compiled by the Juday Group, include:

Exporting corn through U.S. beef and pork

Beef and pork exports accounted for 508.4 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $2.18 billion (at an average 2025 corn price of $4.29 per bushel).
Beef and pork exports accounted for 2.68 million tons of DDGS usage, equating to $374.7 million (at an average price of $139.82 per ton in 2025).
Beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5%, or $0.58, of bushel value at an average price of $4.29 per bushel in 2025.

Exporting soybeans through U.S. pork

Pork exports accounted for 98.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1 billion (at an average price of $10.17 per bushel in 2025).
Pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 10.3% of bushel value, or $1.05, at an average price of $10.17 per bushel in 2025.

Beyond the Blame Game: Navigate the Mental Toll of Modern Ag

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 13:55:09 GMT

When market pressures mount, it is easy to succumb to the “blame game.” Yet, the most resilient operations are those that anchor themselves in a mission larger than the current balance sheet. For leaders like James Burgum and Lamar Steiger, coping with stress isn’t just about managing the books, it’s about managing the mindset.

The Many Hats of the Modern Producer

James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes the first step in managing stress is acknowledging the sheer weight of the roles farmers play.

“One of the things I did when I stepped into my role is an exercise where I said to our team, ‘Help me understand all the hats on the farm – farmworker, agronomist, grain merchandiser, mechanic, truck driver, snow removal lead, banker, economist,’” Burgum said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “You start to go down the list, and its dozens and dozens of roles that an individual farmer plays.”

By recognizing the complexity of these roles, Burgum argues that producers can move toward servant leadership—prioritizing the team’s needs.

“There are things that are much more important and much bigger than the challenges we’re wrestling with on the job every day,” Burgum says. “It’s hard to juggle all the balls, but at the end of the day, we want everyone on our team to make sure they get home at night and be there for their families.”

Choosing Abundance Over Scarcity

Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, learned about stress through the lens of his father, a man who seemed to face every possible setback: health crises, financial downturns and missed market peaks.

The farm struggled during times of high interest rates in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and his father was diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder, Guillain-Barre, that left him paralyzed for six months.

Still, his dad always had an attitude of abundance, not scarcity, Steiger says.

“With my brothers holding other obligations, I was left to milk the cows,” Steiger says. “We were so far behind, and all my dad would say is, ‘It could be worse.’”

Breaking the Silence

Eventually, his family lost the dairy. After hitting rock bottom and battling depression , Steiger realized that the “tough it out” mentality was a liability, not an asset.

“When the stresses pile up, you’ve got to find help,” Steiger says. “I wasn’t ‘man enough’ to step up and say, ‘Hey, something’s wrong here.’ I should have said, ‘Time out—this is not working.’”

Steiger’s advice for those feeling the weight of the current market is simple: Find your “who.” Whether it is a spouse, a neighbor or a professional, talking through the stress is the only way to separate your self-worth from the volatility of the markets.

“In agriculture, we’re so reliant on outside forces,” Steiger says. “You’ve got to have an attitude that it’s going to work out. As my Dad would say, ‘Well, we never missed a meal.’ That was his bottom line for ‘It’s okay.’”

From Constraints to Catalysts: How Ag Leaders Turn Hardships into Strategy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:19:01 GMT

In an industry defined by “one-year-at-a-time” cycles, the greatest threat to a growing operation isn’t just a market downturn—it’s the inertia that comes with size. Farm Journal CEO Prescott Shibles argues that long-term survival requires a rare blend of faith and agility. To maintain an entrepreneurial mindset, leaders must lean into “conviction” as the core of a strategy that survives the lows.

Here is how four industry leaders are turning today’s constraints into tomorrow’s differentiators.

1. Build when times are hard.

When Brent Smith, president and CEO of NewLeaf Symbiotics, joined the company in 2023, the grain market was entering a significant down cycle. While some saw a risky time to lead a startup, he saw an opportunity.

“I learned in my first startup that the best time to build a business is in hard times,” Smith said said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “Because if you can’t withstand tough times, you’re not going to survive long term.”

For Smith, survival meant doubling down on the company’s core: science. Despite the pressure to cut costs, NewLeaf continues to spend half of its operating expenses on science.

“It would be very easy to peel that back,” he admits. “But we focused on projects that make the most impact the quickest, while keeping an eye on the long-term innovation in our pipeline.”

2. Control what you can control.

Farmers face the ultimate constraint every year: the weather. Scott Beck, president of Beck’s Hybrids, recalls the planting crisis of 2019 when constant rains kept tractors out of the fields well into May.

“I was concerned for our customers not being able to plant, but also for us not being able to plant our seed for the next year,” Beck says. “There was nothing that we could do to control the weather, but we could control how we interacted with our customers.”

Rather than retreating, the Beck’s team focused on transparency and empathy, using video series to connect with farmers and even forming small groups for prayer and support. Ultimately, they wanted farmers to know they cared and were there to support them however they could.

Despite the financial reality of what could happen if farmers didn’t plant and returned seed, Beck’s decided their course of action would not include employee layoffs. Instead, they prepared to sell land to protect their people.

“Fortunately, the weather broke and everybody was able to get planted,” he says. “Then the second miracle happened. We had the second warmest September on record, and that’s what brought the crop through to enable 2019 to not turn out as bad as it started.”

3. Turn disadvantages into advantages.

In 2014, Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, was tasked with a monumental challenge: helping Walmart reinvent its beef supply chain. At the time, the retail giant was at a disadvantage, forced to accept whatever the major meatpackers provided.

Steiger’s strategy was to turn that lack of control into a new kind of independence.

“I convinced the Walmart team to go around the traditional supply chain,” Steiger says. Today, Walmart sources 28% of its beef from its own “farm-to-table” supply chain.

There’s no question that decision was really good for Walmart. But Steiger says it was also really good for him personally.

“It reminded me that no matter how big you are, there are always challenges,” he says.

4. Create “white space” for the future.

When the day-to-day tasks of an operation become overwhelming, long-term strategy is often the first thing to go. James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes leaders must intentionally carve out “white space” for their teams.

“It’s important to find ways where people can actually spend their time working on the business, not just in the business,” he says.

By protecting time for team members to execute ideas that are three to five years out, Burgum manages the tension between short-term urgency and long-term viability.

“It’s hard to step away from the daily fires you’ll face in your operation, but it’s important,” he adds. “How we manage that tension of short term and long term is creating that white space and making sure that we consciously work on the business.

The Long Game

Ultimately, resilience in agriculture is about knowing when to push and when to pivot.

“You have to know when to put the gas down, and you need to know when to tap the brake,” Smith says. “And regardless of what you are doing, you need to stay focused on what you’re doing.”

Whether it is investing in science during a downturn or choosing customer empathy over the bottom line, these leaders say constraints don’t have to be roadblocks; they can be the very catalysts that drive an operation forward.

These Half-Dozen U.S. Ag Trade Missions Aim To Diversify Global Demand

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:46:10 GMT

Trump’s USDA team has announced its agribusiness trade missions for the year ahead.

“Our team certainly plays an important role in generating demand overseas for the products,” says Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.

Lindberg points to a three-point plan Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ team is deploying:

Get better trade agreements.
Build willing buyer and willing seller relationships.
Hold trading partners accountable.

According to Lindberg, the goal is it “helps to cultivate, it helps to diversify, so we’re not solely focused on one or two key buyers. I think if you go to many business owners and ask them, would you rather have one buyer that buys 80% of your products or would you rather have some diversification to lots of buyers who have ups and downs of their own, I think many of them would say they prefer the diversification model.”

So far, six agribusiness trade missions have been announced for 2026 with the goal of growing global markets, increasing exports and strengthening the agricultural economy.

The six mission destinations, and potential agricultural focus areas, include the following.

1. February 2026, Jakarta, Indonesia

Since 2020, annual U.S. ag exports to Indonesia have hovered between $2.75 billion and $3.25 billion. Overall, it’s the 11^th largest trade partner for U.S. ag goods.

Indonesia is the fourth-largest market for U.S. soybeans following China, the European Union and Mexico. According to U.S. Census Bureau trade data, in 2024 Indonesia imported from the U.S. $1.2 billion in soybeans, $198 million in wheat and $139 million in cotton. This past July, the Indonesia private sector and the U.S. wheat industry signed a memorandum committing to purchasing at least 1 million metric tons of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2030 plus a minimum of 800,000 metric tons of wheat in 2025 (prorated).

The Trump administration has worked to address long-standing barriers to U.S. agricultural trade and expanding market access into Indonesia with a trade agreement eliminating tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. products.

2. April 2026, Manila, Philippines

U.S. ag exports to the Philippines have more than doubled since 2010. In 2024, the total value was $3.5 billion, making it the ninth-largest customer for U.S. ag trade.

With limited domestic production, the Philippines imports nearly all of its dairy products, and specifically $365 million comes from the U.S. Poultry exports to the Philippines totaled $187 million, with a majority of that in frozen chicken leg quarters.

The U.S. gained market share for ethanol imports into the Philippines, having doubled volumes in 2024 with a value of $138 million.

Beef and beef products are the sixth-largest group of ag products the Philippines imports from the U.S. This category has also experienced recent growth by increasing 58% from 2023 to 2024. The U.S. is second to Brazil in market share for beef imported into the Philippines.

In 2024, the Philippines imported $120 million of pork and pork products from the U.S. The country’s local supply has been declining because of African Swine Fever.

According to an announcement in July, the Trump administration said the Philippines will charge zero tariffs for U.S. exports into their market, while the Philippines will pay 19% tariffs to the U.S.

3. May 2026, Istanbul, Turkey

According to USDA analysis, Turkey has grown its strength as an importer of raw materials and then reexported finished products. This includes importing wheat for flour and cotton for apparel.

Because of its geographic location, Turkey has also grown as a strategic regional transshipment hub, connecting U.S. exporters with trade partners across the Caucasus region.

In September, Turkey lifted its retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. ag products: rice, tree nuts, distilled spirits and more. The Trump administration says a focus for the upcoming agribusiness trade mission will be to address nontariff barriers to trade, which includes import bans on U.S. animal protein.

4. August 2026, Australia and New Zealand

The Trump administration says its trade breakthroughs with Australia will give greater access to U.S. beef exporters. The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement is structured to give comprehensive duty-free market access.

Other protein sectors have significant trade established with Australia. In 2024, $328 million worth of U.S. pork and pork products were imported. And $173 million of U.S. dairy products were brought into the country.

New Zealand imported $520 million worth of U.S. ag goods, including: soybean meal, dairy ingredients (lactose and whey), fresh fruit and distiller’s dried grains.

5. September 2026, Saudi Arabia

This agribusiness trade mission will focus on technical issues and nontariff barriers. Saudi Arabia is the 23^rd largest ag export market for the U.S., and it is a gateway to the $3 billion market for U.S. ag goods that is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

Over the past 10 years, the country has increased its imports of U.S. hay by 540% to its recent total of $152 million in 2024.

Corn, tree nuts and rice are also key ag goods exported from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia, totaling $239 million, $169 million and $123 million, respectively.

6. November 2026, Vietnam

USDA says this trade mission will focus on preferential access for specialty cheese and meats as well as improved market access for U.S. peaches and nectarines.

U.S. ag exports to the country peaked in 2018 at $4 billion and in 2023 were around $3.1 billion. Ranked from highest value to smallest, the top five ag products exported from the U.S. into Vietnam in 2023 were: cotton, soybeans, distillers grains, soybean meal and tree nuts.

For meat and meat products, the key prospects include frozen/chilled beef (boneless and bone-in), frozen chicken (leg quarters, legs and paws), and turkey.

Dairy could be a growth market for U.S. exports into Vietnam as nonfat dried milk powder has led the segment to total $146 million of imports in 2023. Fresh cheese (for foodservice/restaurants) is in demand by younger generations despite not being part of a traditional diet in the country.

USDA also points to fresh fruit as a growth category for the country, namely apples, cherries and grapes.

Why Can't Soybeans Bottom With China Purchases? Are They Buying Corn?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:39:25 GMT

Corn and wheat ended higher Tuesday with soybeans lower. Livestock futures saw a down day in cattle but higher in hogs.

Corn Rallies on China Buying?
Corn futures were up for a second day after seeing technical buying and with some talk of China buying corn out of the Pacific Northwest. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies. However, he is not seeing evidence of those purchases and doubts China needs corn. “I don’t know why China would buy U.S. corn. It wasn’t part of the agreement, which is yet to be signed. So unless it was politically motivated, I would think China would want to go to Brazil. They have this new relationship with Brazil. When it comes to their corn, I think they want to protect their relationships with Brazil,” he says.

He admits port values in the PNW did kind of spike and so did basis. However, he doesn’t think that necessarily means China. “It could be one of our normal customers, like Japan, for example,” he says.

Corn Sees Short Covering
So Seifried thinks the bounce was technically inspired buying after the March contract bounced off the 100-day moving average support area on Wednesday. However, corn has been trading sideways between that support and overhead resistance up at the 200-day moving average. He says if corn could finally close above that level for more than a day, it could take out the $4.50 area and stage a bit of a breakout.

“We saved a breakdown below the neckline of what could potentially be a head and shoulders topping formation in corn. Now, if we were able to get up and over that 200-day moving average for the fourth time, close above it and then not break down the very next day like we have the previous three times. We could potentially break out to the upside and really negate this potential head and shoulders formation,” Seifried explains.

Corn Needs a Catalyst
However, corn will need a catalyst to get above that chart resistance because farmer selling picks up when corn gets to the top side of the trading range. The catalyst could come in the January WASDE if USDA would lower yield. It would take a sizable cut to get the bulls excited and get below 2 billion bu. carryout he says. “I do think if you cut two or three bushel an acre off of corn, we’ll get below a 2 billion bu. carryover, but I don’t know about significantly below 2 billion bushel because it will be offset by USDA lowering feed and residual,” he explains.

Wheat Follows Corn
Wheat futures got spillover support from the corn market but Seifried says soft red winter wheat also saw technical buying to relieve its oversold condition. “Chicago wheat hit new contract lows Tuesday and Wednesday so it was due for a correction,” he says. However, wheat will have a tough time rallying due to the big global production. “USDA has had to continue to raise the world production number. I think we’re, what, 30 MMT off of the original number they had a few months ago,” he states. China canceling two cargoes of white wheat from the U.S. was also bearish for the market. “Anytime China cancels anything, that really does not help the market psychology.”

Why Do Soybeans Continue Lower Despite China Purchases?
The soybean market continues to slide despite the confirmation of export sales and China soybean purchases. USDA reported another 4.2 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Thursday morning and adds to the string of recent purchases that have included China. Seifried says however, that business has not been enough to support the market because it’s half the soybean purchases China made last year.

“The problem is, is that I think the markets realized that 12 million metric tons probably isn’t enough to get us to the USDA full marketing year expectations for our exports, and that they’ll probably have to cut exports again if China doesn’t buy above and beyond that 12 million metric tons. And while the buying is good, the pace does not suggest necessarily that they’re going to outperform on that one,” he explains.

Seifried says South American weather is also favorable and soybean prices in Brazil are cheaper than the U.S. and so there’s no reason for China or any other countries to buy soybeans if it isn’t politically motivated.

Funds also got near record long in mid-November while the government was shut down and they are exiting those positions. “The analyst guesses were, were so far off they weren’t even half of what the funds actually accumulated as far as their long position. And the funds have just simply lost interest in the story. And so they’re getting out of that position,” he adds.

Soybeans Make New Lows for the Move
Soybean futures made new lows for the move on additional technical selling and fund liquidation. Seifried says the market confirmed the head and shoulders top, fell to fill the chart gap areas and then closed below that level which is bearish. Funds got near record long in soybeans in mid-November and then started to bail on those positions and take profits and they are still liquidating.

Profit Taking in Cattle
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day with the market consolidating after several attempts to take out chart resistance areas. Seifried says in live cattle the market has been capped by the 100-day moving average. So, cattle are at a pivotal point and need to fill gap areas on the chart to keep moving higher.

“I mean, the good news there is that both cattle and feeders did close well off their lows. So, you know, we didn’t completely fall apart after running into the one hundred day moving average, major moving average pretty much five days in a row. Not being able to to to break through it and break out to the upside and fill the gap above us. The market finally just gave in a bit.” he says.

Cash trade will also be a key. Thursday some light trade developed in the North at mostly $358 dressed, up $4, with a range of $355 to $363 and live sales prices at $228.

Lean Hogs Finish Higher
Lean hog futures were higher on short covering and fund buying after a lower day on Wednesday. Seifried says the hog market is also getting support from a possible seasonal bottom in cash and cutouts.

Iowa Farmer Battles Today's Pests While Eyeing Tomorrow's 'Mean Sixteen' Threats

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 19:31:41 GMT

For Worth County, Iowa, farmer Sarah Tweeten, the list of high-priority agronomic threats isn’t a political abstract — it’s a harsh reality she deals with every season.

Farming with her parents, Brian and Julie, and her uncle Roger, Tweeten has been steering the partnership toward more resilient cropping practices since joining the operation in 2021. This includes shifting from conventional tillage to strip tillage and splitting nitrogen applications.

The changes are part of a broader mindset: Protecting yields today from weeds, disease and insects while aggressively preparing for the next generation of agronomic threats. This forward-thinking approach is what led Tweeten to Washington, D.C., earlier this week as a Farm Journal Foundation farmer ambassador to help introduce a new report: “ The Mean Sixteen: Major Biosecurity Threats Facing U.S. Agriculture and How Policy Solutions Can Help. ”

Today’s Battles and Tomorrow’s Warnings
Researched and developed by Stephanie Mercier, PhD, the report takes an in-depth look at 16 significant pest issues U.S. farmers face now or could realistically in the future.

Tweeten is already battling a couple of the problems that underpin the urgency behind the research. For example, Palmer amaranth (pigweed) is gaining ground in her fields and across Iowa. The pervasive broadleaf weed can drastically reduce yields, with studies showing corn yield reductions between 11% and 91% and soybean yield reductions of 17% to 68%.

“We’ve struggled with pigweed as it continues to establish more resistance to our herbicides in our toolkit,” Tweeten says.

Two additional agronomic issues the report details include:

1. Asian Soybean Rust. First detected in the U.S. in Louisiana in 2004, this fungal disease has spread to southern states like Georgia and Mississippi. Scientists warn that warming winters could enable its migration to the Midwest, adding to existing disease pressures.

2. Corn Ear Rot. It can lead to aflatoxin production, making corn unmarketable and posing risks to humans and livestock. Aflatoxin is an issue Pickens County, Ala., farmer Annie Dee says is an ongoing problem for corn growers in her area.

“If we have aflatoxin, it can be impossible to sell the corn,” says Dee, also a Farm Journal Foundation Farmer ambassador.

A more recent threat she references is the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (bird flu) on local poultry farms.

Since January 2022, HPAI has been confirmed in a commercial or backyard poultry flock in all 50 states.

(USDA)

“An important market for us is poultry feed meal, so that’s a constant worry. The trickle-down effect is if we can’t move our corn then we can’t meet our financial obligations,” Dee adds.

Despite agricultural R&D offering a high ROI — $20 in benefits for every $1 spent — the Farm Journal Foundation report notes public funding for ag research has been declining over the past two decades.

“Farmers urgently need sustained support for aflatoxin research and prevention because these risks threaten our yields, our markets and the trust consumers place in American agriculture,” Dee says.

U.S. public spending on ag research and development has been falling for two decades.

(USDA-ERS)

African Swine Fever Has ‘Devastating Potential’
Looking to the future, Tweeten says she is concerned about African swine fever (ASF) and its potential to impact crop farmers as well as hog producers. The highly contagious swine disease hasn’t been detected in the U.S. mainland, but it isn’t far away. ASF has been confirmed in the Caribbean countries of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, roughly 700 miles from Miami, Fla.

“Being a farmer from Iowa, where we have probably eight times the amount of pigs as we do people, an outbreak of ASF would be just devastating to our state,” Tweeten says.

Hogs are among the biggest customers for the corn and soybeans Tweeten and her family grow. If African swine fever were to shut down hog production or exports, it wouldn’t just be a blow to livestock producers – it would hurt the entire agricultural community, she contends.

Read about 5 livestock diseases that could impact U.S. food security and economic stability.

Food Security Is National Security
When it comes to justifying funding for ag research, Tweeten knows there’s competition for every federal dollar. But she believes agriculture deserves a front-row seat — not only because of its economic weight and impact on farmers, but because of its role in national security.

“There’s that argument that food security is national security,” she says. “If there’s one thing COVID made us aware of, it’s that a disruption to our food chain can be terrifying, quite frankly.”

The pandemic made consumers and policymakers more aware of supply chain vulnerability. In 2020, the shock to the supply chain came from a human disease and logistical bottlenecks.

(Sarah Williams Photography)

Next time, Tweeten says, the disruption could just as easily come from animal or plant disease — whether African swine fever in hogs, Asian soybean rust or some other pathogen in crops. She worries about scenarios where farmers could face a fast-moving disease or crop pest while critical tools are still hung up in regulatory delays.

Her message: Farmers need a full toolbox, not one that’s half-built by the time a threat arrives.

“Ag needs to be in a good position when these sorts of emerging diseases and pests come into the country,” she says, “to have the tools in our toolbox ready for farmers to pull out.”

About the Farm Journal Foundation
The Farm Journal Foundation is a farmer-centered, non-profit, nonpartisan organization established in 2010. It works to advance agricultural innovation, food and nutrition security, conservation, and rural economic development.

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:31 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:26 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 16:48:46 GMT

From disease to drought, this 2025 crop has been thrown a curve ball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA projecting currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month.

USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bu. per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre.

But as AgWeb reported earlier this week , southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network (CPN) .

A map of counties where Southern Rust has been confirmed or reported in 2025.

(CPN )

Add to that fresh concerns about drought, as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is now covering 33% of the country. When it comes to agriculture, 5% of the corn crop is now considered in drought, 11% of the soybean crop and 30% of the cotton crop.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey authored the Monitor this week, saying the drought picture has drastically changed over the past month.

“We’re seeing rapid expansion flash drought across the mid-south, lower Midwest into the Northeast,” Rippey says. “All of this drought has come on in just the last few weeks. At the end of July, we were virtually drought free in the Midwest, so to see these yellows and tans starting to light up, that is reflective of the overall dryness. Of course, it’s a different story in the West where we’ve got drought really deeply entrenched. But from the big picture here, a lot of focus on those developing drought areas from the mid-South into the northeast.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows how the dry August is impacting the drought picture across the country.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Rippey says as the taps turned off for some areas, some portions of the Eastern Corn Belt are seeing their driest August on record. He says that dryness is extending westward into parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt.

“Agriculturally, all eyes are on the Northern Mississippi Delta into the Ohio Valley and the southern Corn Belt. A lot of those areas are receiving less than half of the normal rainfall during the month of August. A few areas have less than 25% of normal,” Rippey says. “And with those taps turning off, that is depleting topsoil moisture. We’re going to have to wait and see with crop production in September to see how the crops have handled this late dryness.”

The map showing the percent of normal precipitation proves areas of the Corn Belt, West and Northeast have turned off dry to end the summer.

(Brad Rippey, USDA)

Rippey says, on a positive note, temperatures have remained mild. So, even though the moisture has been sparse or absent, at least temperatures didn’t amplify the situation. But a dry August is still a concern.

Impact on Yield
Peter Meyer, who helped lead Pro Farmer Crop Tour in the east last week, says with the amount of dryness that’s entered the picture —and the fact that disease has exploded in many Midwest fields over the past week — he thinks the crop is getting smaller, not bigger. But that’s something that likely won’t show up until USDA factors in test weight, which will be the October report.

“I think the crop has gone backward since [Pro Farmer] Crop Tour,” Meyer says. “When I start to look at some of these numbers for the month of August, it was extremely dry in many, many areas. We’re talking the top 10 or 15 dry years out of the last 150, 160 years. So, that’s why the crop ran out of gas. It had a lot of moisture. The heat was there. It pushed a crop further and faster. I think we have an issue.”

Meyer says based on those factors, he’s dropped his yield estimate from the 183 bu. per acre he personally projected during Crop Tour last week.

“But I’m still not below 180 [bu. per acre]. I think we’re going to have an early harvest, and I think we’re going to have an earlier harvest in beans, too. That’s represents a problem here as far as the market is concerned.”

“It definitely feels like it’s going backward,” said Jim McCormick with AgMarket.net on U.S. Farm Report. “When we talk to our clients, which we have some all across the country, they are really concerned about it. Probably a little bit more in the east and the west where we’ve seen some of the driest conditions in 130 years in parts of Ohio. Is it a disaster? No, but it’s definitely taking the top end off the crop.”

Dan Basse, who’s AgResource Company’s president and founder, agrees the U.S. corn and soybean crops could be losing yield, but he warns that it may not be a dramatic cut.

“I think its going backward, but maybe not to the degree that the farmer would like,” Basse said on U.S. Farm Report. “We dropped our yield estimate from 189.2 to 187.1 [bu. per acre]. So, we’re down a skosh from USDA, but this is still a big crop. And some of the early deal data we’re getting out of Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas is above what expectations were. When you think about this crop, southern rust is a bad disease if you get it into blister or early milk stage. But when it happens at dent, you’re looking at yield losses of zero to 4%. So, let’s hope that farmers applied one application of fungicide and that kept them until the crop got in the dent. I’m hoping that’s going to limit yield losses going forward.”

USDA’s next yield revision could come Sept. 12. That’s when the agency is slated to release its latest crop production report. But if you look at USDA’s methodology in September, which is to factor in ear counts and pod counts, Basse thinks USDA could potentially raise its yield estimate next month.

“I think, in general, they tend to grow a little bit bigger,” McCormick says of USDA’s historical pattern of yield estimates from August to September. “I mean, look at last year’s analog year. The crop was big in August, it got bigger in September, then again in October before they started revising it down. It would not be a surprise that they will go bigger, but there’s gonna be a lot of pushback, like Dan said, from the disease pressure. There’s going to be a wide range on the estimate for the September WASDE when it’s all said.”

Basse adds: “I wouldn’t be surprised if USDA raises yield next month. Even on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, it showed us record ear counts and record pod counts. Those are the two most important ingredients for the September report. Now, in October, we’ll have more to know about pod weights and ear weights. But for September, I’m kind of expecting USDA is going to be a few bushels, if you will, from the August estimate. It’s the October report that will determine how big is big.”

West Nile Virus Activity Spikes to 20-Year High in the Midwest

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 22:08:01 GMT

Scouting cornfields now might net you a different problem than the insects you might have anticipated encountering. An Iowa State University researcher says there are “very high levels” of West Nile virus (WNV) trending in Iowa and other Midwestern states currently.

“This week had the highest observed WNV activity at this point in the summer observed in over 20 years. This trend is of serious concern for the next eight weeks when WNV transmission risks are the highest,” writes Erin Hodgson , ISU Extension entomologist specialist.

To date in 2025, there have been 219 cases of WNV reported in 29 states. In 2024, there was a total of 1,466 cases of WNV reported in the U.S., according to Vector Disease Control International.

In Iowa, data is generated from ongoing mosquito surveillance efforts coordinated by Ryan Smith, ISU associate professor and entomologist. Smith has implemented an interdisciplinary approach to examine mosquito immunity and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Leading Cause Of Mosquito-Borne Disease
West Nile virus is transmitted through the bite of a Culex mosquito, commonly called a house mosquito. It typically picks up the virus by feeding on an infected bird. West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States.

In general, people do not spread the infection.

There are no vaccines to prevent or medicines to treat West Nile in people. Fortunately, most people infected with the virus do not feel sick, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). About 20% of people who contract the disease will experience mild symptoms like fever, headache, and body aches.

In a small percentage of cases, the virus can cause serious neuroinvasive disease issues, such as encephalitis or meningitis, which can be severe and even fatal, the CDC reports.

People older than 60 and those with weakened immune systems are at highest risk for severe illness.

The CDC offers an interactive site where you can view and track the total number of human infections of WNV reported on a county-by-county basis. See current results in your county here .

Implement The Three Rs
To prevent mosquito bites, the CDC encourages people to practice the ‘Three Rs’:

REDUCE - make sure doors and windows have tight-fitting screens. Repair or replace screens that have tears or other openings. Try to keep doors and windows shut. Eliminate, or refresh each week, all sources of standing water where mosquitoes can breed, including water in bird baths, ponds, flowerpots, wading pools, old tires, and any other containers.

REPEL - when outdoors, wear shoes and socks, long pants and a light-colored, long-sleeved shirt, and apply an EPA-registered insect repellent that contains DEET, picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, IR 3535, para-menthane-diol (PMD), or 2-undecanone according to label instructions. Consult a physician before using repellents on infants.

REPORT – report locations where you see water sitting stagnant for more than a week such as roadside ditches, flooded yards, and similar locations that may produce mosquitoes. Your local health department or city government may be able to add larvicide to the water, which will kill any mosquito larvae.

Your next read: Southern Rust Has Infected Iowa Corn in ‘Likely Every County’

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:45:05 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.

Hogs Ease After Big Rally, Cattle Hit Record Highs and Soybeans Gain After Trump/Xi Call

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 13:20:39 GMT

Hogs ended mostly lower on Thursday, with all-time highs in cattle and grains mostly higher as well.

Lean Hogs Consolidate Thursday After Recent Rally

Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says lean hogs ended mixed to lower on Thursday with August seeing some profit taking after making new highs for the move early in the session. August hogs have been on a big rally gaining nearly $7 in seven sessions.

The consolidation came despite a positive call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi earlier in the day and decent weekly pork exports at 36,400 MT, with a sale of 12,700 MT to China.

Hoogendoorn was at World Pork Expo and says there is optimism about the hog market with the recent rally which has been pushed by higher cash and cutouts.

The CME lean hog index is up another 82 cents to $97.57 as of June 4. Pork cutout firmed $1.50 to $108.12 on Thursday. Both are trading at their highest levels since August 2023.

Packers cut kills the last few weeks he says and cutouts responded moving above $107, but at the same time there’s not an excess supply of hogs.

The deferred lean hog contracts just made new contract highs with disease concerns in production areas like Iowa, mostly due to PEDV.

Hoogendoorn says these prices are offering some profitable levels for hog producers all the way down the futures board.

Cattle Futures Explode To All-Time Highs

Cattle futures made all time highs in both live and feeder cattle offerings.

Funds stepped back in to buy with the steep futures discount to more record cash cattle trade.

Cash broke in the South already Wednesday at $225 to $228, up $3 to $6 from last week and there were some trades at $230 in Kansas before the close on Thursday.

Later in the afternoon light cash cattle trade developed in Texas at $232, up $10 from last week’s weighted average.

Light trade was also reported in Nebraska with dressed sales at $380, up $13 from last week’s weighted averages. Live deals at $240, up $5.

Soybeans React to Positive Trump/Xi Call

Soybeans saw gains Thursday, supported by positive news that Trump and Xi’s conversation went well.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and President Xi had a “very good” phone call and “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Next steps involve a meeting between the countries respective teams with Secretary of the Treasury Bessent leading the U.S. team.

The market also saw additional fund and technical buying but was stopped short running into resistance with several moving averages layered overhead on the charts.

Corn Bounces After July Hits New Lows

Corn was higher as well with spillover from higher soybeans and still adding some weather premium.

However, July made a new low for the move and hit a level not seen since October of 2024, before bouncing.

Bear spreading continued to be a feature in the corn market with December gaining on July.

Despite a tight 1.4 billion bu. carryover, Hoogendoorn says the market is telling farmers there is no concern about running out of corn.

He says some of that pressure is coming from the big crop and much lower corn prices in South America.

Chinese Scientist Accused Of Smuggling ‘Potential Agroterrorism Weapon’ Into the U.S.

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 23:10:37 GMT

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with trying to smuggle a fungus, Fusarium graminearum, into the United States.

Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, citizens of the People’s Republic of China, were charged in a criminal complaint with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., false statements and visa fraud.

The charges against the pair were unsealed in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan, on Tuesday.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office references Fusarium graminearum online as a “dangerous biological pathogen … which scientific literature classifies as a potential agroterrorism weapon.”

Fusarium graminearum causes significant diseases in a number of U.S.-grown food crops, including corn, wheat, barley, soybeans and rice.

Diseases caused include Fusarium head blight (scab) in wheat, and two corn diseases Gibberella ear rot and Gibberella stalk rot , which can lower yield and feed quality of silage corn, according to the Crop Protection Network, a partnership of land grant universities.

Toxins the fungus produces can cause vomiting, liver damage, reproductive defects and mycotoxin-induced immunosuppression in humans and livestock, including cattle, hogs, horses and poultry.

One Scientist Arrested, One Returned To China
The 25-page criminal complaint alleges Liu tried to smuggle the fungus through the Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DMA) in July 2024, so he could study it at a University of Michigan laboratory where his girlfriend, Yunqing Jian, worked at the time.

Jian had been living in the U.S. and working at the university laboratory since 2022.

The roots of the case involving Yunqing Jian, 33, and her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, 34, stretch back to March 2024. That is when Liu applied for a B2 tourist visa to enter the U.S.

(The Detroit News and Sanilac County Jail)

According to the criminal complaint, Jian and Liu had both previously conducted work on the fungus in China.

Officials further allege Jian received funding from the Chinese government for her research on the pathogen in China. They also claim she is a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

Jian, who was arrested by the FBI, remains in federal custody. On Thursday, her detention hearing was adjourned until 1 p.m. June 13 to allow time for a new defense attorney to get up to speed.

Liu was sent back to China last year after changing his story during an interrogation at the Detroit airport about red plant material discovered in a wad of tissues in his backpack, the FBI says.

The U.S. does not have an extradition treaty with China, which makes Liu’s arrest unlikely unless he returns.

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

“It is important to note that the university has received no funding from the Chinese government in relation to research conducted by the accused individuals,” the university added. “We have and will continue to cooperate with federal law enforcement in its ongoing investigation and prosecution.”

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

(Michigan News Source)

Boyfriend Spills Intentions To Investigators
An article in The Detroit News said Liu told investigators during an interrogation at the Detroit airport he planned to clone the different strains and make additional samples if the experiments on the reddish plant material failed, according to the government.

“Liu stated that he intentionally hid the samples in his backpack because he knew there were restrictions on the importation of the materials,” an FBI agent wrote. “Liu confirmed that he had intentionally put the samples in a wad of tissues so CBP officers would be less likely to find and confiscate them, and he could continue his research in the United States.”

Liu told investigators he planned on using UM’s Molecular Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory to research the biological materials, the FBI agent wrote.

“Liu stated that, while he was in the United States, he would have free access to the laboratory at the University of Michigan on some days, and that other days his girlfriend would give him access to the laboratory to conduct his research,” The Detroit News article reported.

Before preventing Liu from entering the U.S. and sending him back to China, the investigators found messages between the couple that indicate Jian previously smuggled biological material into the U.S., the FBI agent wrote.

The messages are from August 2022 and discuss smuggling seeds into the U.S.

Lawmakers Respond To The Criminal Complaint
Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement that the Justice Department “has no higher mission than keeping the American people safe and protecting our nation from hostile foreign actors who would do us harm.”

“Thanks to the hard work of our excellent DOJ attorneys, this defendant — who clandestinely attempted to bring a destructive substance into the United States — will face years behind bars,” the attorney general says.

“I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country,” FBI Director Kash Patel said on Tuesday.

(FBI)

FBI Director Kash Patel addressed the arrest of Jian late Tuesday on X, formerly Twitter.

“This case is a sobering reminder that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave consequences … putting American lives and our economy at serious risk.”

U.S. Custom and Border Protection, Director of Field Operations Marty C. Raybon says the criminal charges against Jian and Liu are indicative of CBP’s critical role in protecting the American people from biological threats that could devastate its agricultural economy and cause harm to humans.

“This was a complex investigation involving CBP offices from across the country, alongside our federal partners,” says Raybon in a prepared statement. “I’m grateful for their tireless efforts, ensuring our borders remain secure from all types of threats while safeguarding America’s national security interests.”

Your next read: Surveillance State: Game Wardens Sued for Secret Private Land Intrusions in Alabama

Why Did the Ag Markets Fade China Trade Talk News?

Thu, 08 May 2025 15:02:00 GMT

Grain and livestock futures closed mostly lower on Friday.

It was a disappointing close considering the news that top trade officials from the U.S. and China were meeting in Geneva this weekend to de-escalate the trade war.

Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the markets faded the news as the realization set in that no major breakthroughs in the trade talks are expected and a long term trade deal with China could take quite some time.

President Donald Trump also said Wednesday he’s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations with Beijing on trade.

Weather was also a headwind for the corn and soybean markets with fast planting pace and more rain in the forecast for dry areas of the hard red winter wheat belt.

The market is also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer has confirmed they will start to consider the impact of tariffs in the new crop balance sheets.

“That could make these early estimates look a bit too friendly,” says Chatterton.

July corn made new lows for the move hitting chart resistance, failing and then testing triple bottom support on the charts at $4.51.

“It was a big outside day lower,” explains Chatterton, “And so tomorrow’s action will be important to see if there is further technical breakdown.”

Wheat has been an anchor for the corn market with improving crop conditions tied to recent rain.

Lower prices relative to corn are pushing wheat into the feed ration.

The higher dollar and lower crude oil markets were also bearish for the grain complex.

The FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected.

However, Chatterton says Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market was solid and inflation was still somewhat elevated, but the uncertainty in the economic outlook moving forward tied to tariffs.

Cattle futures saw a correction off of Tuesday’s new contract highs, despite higher cash trade.

So far business in the South, has ranged from $218 to $220, steady to $2 higher, with $219 paid on Wednesday.

So is this divergence a concern?

Chatterton calls it a healthy correction in a bull market that continues to be supported by cash and consumer demand with Choice beef values at two year highs.

Lean hogs also had a disappointing day, also fading at least slight progress on trade with China.

Feral Swine Law Setback: What's at Stake for Ohio

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 14:25:21 GMT

Every year, feral swine cost Ohio $2.5 million in losses due to the spread of deadly animal diseases and damage to land and crops. Just as 44 other states have some type of ban on importation of feral swine, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed H.B. 503, known as the Feral Swine Bill , into law last December to curb the problem.

The law was to go into effect in late March, but a county judge recently granted an injunction putting it on hold.

“The court has disregarded the entire purpose of the law and has wildly expanded what it’s designed to do — which is to protect all pork producers from diseases carried by feral swine such as African swine fever,” says Cheryl Day, Ohio Pork Council executive vice president. “This is certainly not something we foresaw, but we are confident that it will be resolved swiftly to ensure the full protection of our state’s farmers and landowners who are at much higher risk otherwise.”

The judge in the case, brought by a feral swine hunting preserve owner, has urged the state of Ohio to seek a “legislative clarification” to the definition of feral swine, which is currently being pursued, the Ohio Pork Council said in a statement.

With unanimous bipartisan support in the General Assembly and numerous supporters, including the Ohio Farm Bureau, Ohio Dairy Producers Association, Ohio Cattleman’s Association, Ohio Soybean Association, Ohio Sheep Improvement Association, Ohio Poultry Association, Ohio Corn & Wheat Growers Association, and the Ohio Forestry Association, the law set out to protect the state from the harm wild pigs cause.

“It’s a bit disturbing that the court did not understand what’s at stake when we have over 3,500 family-based pig farms in Ohio that depend on keeping their animals safe from unnecessary health risks that could devastate them and our state economy,” Day says.

The Stakes are High
As a family pig farmer in Ohio, Nathan Schroeder, president of the Ohio Pork Council from Leipsic, Ohio, says it’s extremely disappointing that the court did not understand what’s at stake.

“Our nation’s poultry farmers have seen how devastating diseases like avian influenza can be and a foreign animal disease brought in by feral swine would be much worse for us, which is why this law must be allowed to go into effect,” Schroeder urges.

Ohio alone could lose an estimated 28,000 jobs and experience losses of up to $115 million per year if African swine fever, a deadly foreign animal disease that impacts both wild and domestic pigs, were brought in, experts say.

“We’ve all seen the devastation that diseases such as avian influenza can have, and we know foreign animal disease losses would be dramatically worse, which is another reason why this law must be reinstated,” Day points out.

Ohio Pork Council is not letting this one slide.

“We’ll be working hard to support the reinstatement of the law so that our industry gets the protection it deserves,” Day says.

Your Next Read: Pigs Don’t Fly: Feral Hog Spread Is A Man-Made Mess

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:07:28 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

China Increases Tariffs to 125%: What Ag Exports Will Be Most Impacted

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 15:38:50 GMT

China announced Friday it’s hitting back with more tariffs on U.S. goods. The new tariff rate is 125%, up from the 84% announced earlier this week.

This is in response to President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the U.S. would be pausing reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days, but upping the ante on China with a tariff of 125%.

Given that US exports to China are already commercially unviable at current tariff levels, any further US tariff hikes on Chinese goods will simply be ignored. pic.twitter.com/clFdSIzAsH
— Lin Jian 林剑 (@SpoxCHN_LinJian) April 11, 2025

The U.S. and China have been trading blows with tariff hikes for a while now. Just last week, President Trump headlined what he called “Liberation Day” by announcing tariffs on more than 180 countries. That included a 34% tariff on all Chinese goods. In response, China imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods two days later. With tariffs already in place, that brought the total rate to 60%.

More recently, the U.S. said on Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect shortly after midnight. China fired back with an additional 50% tariff on U.S. goods.

Now China has raised the rate on U.S. imports to 125% starting Saturday. It’s a tit-for-tat with tariffs impacting some exports more than others.

The new tariff rate is likely 155.73%, up from the 114.73% we reported earlier this week . The American Soybean Association is still trying to confirm this new rate.

“Whether the tariffs are 50% or 100%, it really doesn’t matter. Either one shuts down trade until it doesn’t anymore,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group. “It does hurt some of our energy exports to them. It hurts our cotton exports, our beef and our pork.”

U.S. Meat Exports Face Hefty Tariffs to China

Farm Journal reached out to U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Friday morning to nail down what the new tariff rate is on U.S. meat exports to China. While USMEF is still reviewing the details of China’s action, as of Friday morning, USMEF says its new calculations are assuming the higher tariff is applied to the same range of goods that has been covered by other tariff hikes:

USMEF says these rates represent the sum total of China’s 12% most-favored-nation tariff, plus retaliatory duties previously imposed by China, plus the new 34% duty that took effect April 10, the additional 50% duty that was announced a couple of days ago, plus the increase announced Friday morning.

(Lori Hayes )

“The additional tariff will push China’s effective duty rate on U.S. pork and pork variety meat to 172% and beef and beef variety meat will be tariffed at 147%,” USMEF vice president of communications Joe Schuele told Farm Journal.

Schuele says these rates represent the sum total of China’s 12% most-favored-nation tariff, retaliatory duties previously imposed by China, the new 34% duty that took effect April 10, the additional 50% duty that was announced a couple of days ago and the increase announced Friday morning.

China is Still Buying Soybeans

According to Suderman, the weekly export sales report from USDA showed China is still buying soybeans. Suderman says China was again the featured buyer of U.S. soybeans in the week ending on April 3, and he says that buyer was likely Sinograin.

The company bought 5.2 million bushels, although 4.9 million of that was a previous purchase by “unknown destinations.” Suderman says the purchase is likely for reserve beans, which are unaffected by the tariffs.

China was again the featured buyer of US #soybeans in the week ending April 3 (likely Sinograin) at 5.2 million bushels, although 4.9 million of that was a previous purchase by "unknown destinations." These are likely reserve beans, unaffected by the tariffs for Sinograin. #oatt
— Arlan Suderman (@ArlanFF101) April 10, 2025

“Most of the recently announced purchases have been changes from unknown destinations. So, in other words, they just didn’t declare who they were initially or where it was going,” Suderman says. “Sinograin is a state grain agency. In other words, if they pay the tariff, it’s the right-hand paying the left-hand. Tariffs don’t really matter. They buy for the reserves. So in theory, they could buy a lot of soybeans and then auction them out of the reserves. We also saw during Trump 1.0 when they truly needed soybeans that they waived the tariffs.”

Sinograin Group was established in 2000 upon the approval of the central government. The company is responsible for the management and operation of central reserve stocks of grain, oil and cotton.

Nothing like waking up to news China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%

At this point 34%, 84%, 125% or even 1250% are one and the same because they all leave US #soybeans priced way out of the market pic.twitter.com/IQ5MQpJqIp
— Susan Stroud (@SusanNOBULL) April 11, 2025

However, Suderman says China was buying Brazil’s soybeans over those from the U.S. already. They were cheaper even before the tariffs took place.

“When it comes to soybeans, I checked this morning and soybeans delivered to the port in China were $0.47 cheaper if they came from Brazil than if they came from the US. Gulf,” Suderman says. “That’s the bottom line. That’s before any retaliatory tariffs. That’s going to remain the case for a while. Based on the size of South America’s production, probably until we get to the fourth quarter. And then how many beans will they need from us?”

Suderman says he’s been telling clients for two years to be cautious about China, as the country looks to build up its reserves. He points out China is importing more than they’re crushing, which is another sign China is building up reserves. It is a bucket of grain they can tap into while the trade war plays out.

Tariff Delay Rallies Ag and Outside Markets, Trumps China Trade War

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 20:36:40 GMT

Grain, livestock and especially outside markets soared on Wednesday.

Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.

A 10% universal tariff is still in place but over 75 countries have reached out to avert tariffs and were rewarded.

It was an unprecedented day in the stock market which reversed and surged in reaction.

“Its a smart move by the Trump Administration because it buys them time to negotiate deals with these 75 countries and the markets have time to absorb that news and calm down,” he explains.

Suderman says this also puts to rest the talk of global recession, which had tanked the stock market, the energy sector and even cattle futures.

“I think the market took it as a positive step forward. Now it’s up to the Trump administration to actually come through and turn those negotiations into something positive, meaning lower tariffs for everybody. And if they can do that, we can actually result to see greater global economic growth and greater demand for commodities,” he adds.

The grain and livestock futures also posted a relief rally despite the escalation of the trade war with China.

China announced retaliatory tariffs of 50% which drew a negative response from President Trump as he slapped another 125% tariff on Beijing.

Suderman says, “Ultimately containing China is one of Trump’s top goals and since they
led the way in retaliation, that’s another reason he said that if any country retaliates, we will keep adding to it. Since that’s what they’ve done, he doesn’t want to give any signal of rewarding that type of behavior,”

He says it took Trump three years to get a trade deal out of China in his first term and he is trying to get a quicker response this time around.

“With a weaker economy, he felt like he could do that. Now, I don’t know if we’re any closer to a trade agreement with China, Because right now they feel like they’re being bullied, so their pride is hurt, and so they’re backing off and they’re fighting.”

The Chinese are trying to buy time according to Suderman.

“Hoping that the consumer will turn on Trump, and therefore Congress will turn on Trump and limit his powers or ability to do this. But today’s move kind of cuts that strategy short,” he adds.

The total tariffs on U.S. pork imports into China, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, are at 131% and for beef at 106%.

The American Soybean Association confirmed China’s tariffs on U.S. soybeans are now at 114%.

At what point does China finally break down and negotiate?

Suderman says that’s hard to predict.

The grain markets were shrugging off the China news before the tariff delay as Chinese tariffs won’t impact the current soybean crop and the White House also said it was pausing the Section 301 fees on vessels of Chinese origin and is looking at restructuring those fees.

He thinks the markets can go back to trading their own fundamentals and in the case of the grains that includes Thursday’s WASDE.

Suderman anticipates a tightening of the balance sheets, at least for corn which is positive.

U.S. Soybean Exports Now Face a Nearly 115% Tariff to China as Tit for Tat Plays Out

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 19:12:05 GMT

U.S. soybean exports now face a 114.73% tariff into China, up from 60%, as the tit for tat continues between the two countries. Even as the trade war heats up, the reality is U.S. farmers aren’t shipping as many soybeans to China as they did in 2018, yet China remains the top destination.

How Did We Get Here?

Just last week, President Donald Trump headlined what he called “Liberation Day” by announcing tariffs on more than 180 countries. That included a 34% tariff on all Chinese goods. In response, China imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods two days later. With tariffs already in place, that brought the total tariff rate to 60%.

After China retaliated with its own tariffs, the U.S. said on Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect shortly after midnight. Then, on Tuesday, China fired back with an additional 50% tariff on U.S. goods.

“What we are understanding is that the new 50% stacks on top of the last 34% and the previous 10%. After you add the “regular” VAT and standard duty rate, the updated effective rate for soybeans is 114.73%,” American Soybean Association (ASA) told Farm Journal on Wednesday, shortly after China made their own tariff announcement.

By midday Wednesday, President Trump hit back at China again. He announced a 90-day “pause” on his tariff regime for all countries except China and lowered the tariff level to a universal 10%. When it comes to China, Trump has increased tariffs to 125%.

Exports to China Were Already Down Before Trade War

As the market watches the tariff spat unfold, U.S. exports to China are already at a multiyear low. While China is still the top export market for U.S. soybeans, it’s not at the level it was prior to the 2018 trade war.

“While it was not unexpected, the resulting cloud of concern following the administration’s tariff announcement is not without fallout — in the form of continued market uncertainty, the threat of lost business to existing soy markets due to potential tariff retaliation, price increases on inputs and more,” ASA said in a statement earlier this week. “The announcement of 10% baseline tariffs on all countries and additional, individualized tariff rates on approximately 60 countries impacts all of U.S. soy’s top 10 export markets. This includes No. 1 export market China.”

China Has Been Stockpiling Soybeans

Based on analysis by Terrain, China’s economic struggles and years of stockpiling have reduced demand for U.S. soybeans. Imports in 2024/25 were down 3% to 4 billion bushels. According to Terrain, it will be hard to reverse course on this trend.

“A renewed trade deal would offer false hope. Brazil has been busy feeding China soybeans (supplying nearly three times as much as the U.S. in 2022/23),” stated analysis by Terrain. “China met only 60% of its prior commitment in the Phase One agreement in 2020/21, is now aligned with Brazil and has been for years, and has stagnant demand.”

According to Terrain’s analysis, China continues to stockpile soybeans, with the majority coming from Brazil.

(Terrain )

University of Missouri Extension agricultural economist Ben Brown also ran the numbers to show how the U.S. market share for soybean exports to China has dropped.

Share of U.S. soybean exports going to China first six months of marketing year:

2015/17 average: 68%
2022/24 average: 62%

Share of outstanding U.S. soybean export sales:

2015/17: 28%
2022/24: 23%

The share of outstanding sales by China as the total, as of March 27, 2025, sits at 11.4%.

While the percentage differences might look small, according to Brown, it adds up.

“Every percent decline is 18.2 million bushels, or 0.4% of annual production, Brown adds.

Even though China’s appetite for U.S. ag products has waned, commodity prices have rebounded some this week. But after the initial tariff news hit last week, soybean prices sunk multiple days in a row.

According to AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett, exports are at risk. When Brazil’s harvest hits the market that’s what China will be buying. Even then, outstanding sales of soybeans could take a hit.

“We have some unshipped sales right now for soybeans,” Bennett says. “They haven’t been buying any corn. Bottom line: They’re buying most of their beans off of Brazil and will be from this point forward. That would be one of my concerns, though, is you’ve got a balance sheet right now of 380 million bushels for soybeans. What if we lose 15 or 20 million bushels because some of these sales turned into cancellations? There’s no doubt we could see some of that retaliation.”

Bennett says it’s also key to remember this isn’t a one-way street. The U.S. is a major destination for China’s exports, including consumer products.

“We have to remember we’re the biggest destination as far as where they’re shipping products,” Bennett says. “I mean, we are the world’s largest consumer. They’ve been doing good business with us, but just like we’ve seen with some of the other countries, there’s trade imbalances here that probably need to be addressed. The short-term pain, if you will, is hopefully going to be followed up by maybe some long-term benefit.”

The last trade war, Brazil proved to gain market share, growing an even bigger customer base in China.

“ASA strongly encourages the administration to swiftly negotiate and address tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. agriculture exports,” the group urged in a statement.

Other top targets include cotton, sorghum, beef, pork and seafood — each with more than $1 billion in exports to China last year.

Opportunity for Soybean Exports to Grow?

Despite what ASA calls the “doom and gloom of increasing tariffs across the globe,” the association says soybean farmers are hopeful the administration has a plan to quickly negotiate with impacted countries.

“We are hoping from obstacles can come opportunity and the administration will swiftly work with the affected countries to create new market access opportunities for U.S. soy and other U.S. products in these markets so these higher tariffs can be removed. That includes pursuing a Phase Two trade agreement with China,” says ASA President Caleb Ragland, who farms soy and other crops in Kentucky.

ASA says soybeans farmers still suffer from negative impacts of lost market share, reputational damage and expanded production in competitor countries stemming from China’s trade retaliation in 2018/19 before the Phase One agreement was reached.

ASA Pushes Trump Administration to Level the Playing Field

Another area ASA is pushing for is using the reciprocal tariffs announcement to level the playing field and create new market access. ASA says it supports the administration’s goal of achieving greater fairness in U.S. trading relationships.

“Its reciprocal tariff strategy holds great promise for achieving new market access for U.S. agricultural goods, but ASA strongly encourages the administration to avoid punitive tariffs without negotiations to address tariff and non-tariff barriers. Tit-for-tat trade wars are not beneficial, and U.S. agriculture cannot afford them. Soy farmers urge the administration to quickly pursue agreements with priority countries so as to open market opportunities for U.S. agriculture and minimize the potential for retaliation,” ASA said in a statement.

Your Next Read: Tariff Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for Agriculture

New Food Security and Farm Protection Act Protects Farmers and Consumers From Government Overreach

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 16:24:08 GMT

After the U.S. Supreme Court left an open invitation for Congress to strike down California’s Proposition 12, U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) says it’s time to end this “unjustified and burdensome regulatory overreach” in order to protect family farms and bring down prices for U.S. consumers.

On April 8, Ernst and fellow Senate Agriculture Committee members Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) introduced The Food Security and Farm Protection Act that prohibits any state or local government from interfering with commerce and agricultural practices in another state outside their jurisdiction.

“Proposition 12 is dangerous and arbitrary overregulation that stands in direct opposition to the livelihoods of Iowa pork producers, increases costs for both farmers and consumers, and jeopardizes our nation’s food security,” Ernst says. “I’m proud to be leading the charge to strike down this harmful measure and will keep fighting to make sure the voices of the farmers and experts who know best – not liberal California activists – are heard.”

Pig Farmers Speak Out
This policy averts a disastrous patchwork of contradictory state-by-state farm regulations that would hit hardest small and medium-sized pork producers, says National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) President Duane Stateler, a pork producer from McComb, Ohio.

“U.S. pork producers have just suffered the worst 18 months of financial losses in history, and many farm families are contemplating whether they can pass along their farm to the next generation,” Stateler says. “We urge the Senate to take up this legislation immediately to provide us much-needed relief.” Learn more about Stateler’s story here.

Without certainty from the Food Security and Farm Protection Act , NPPC says there will be many consequences, including:

Widespread, damaging consequences for farmers and consumers alike.
Significant fees forced on producers to pay for outside regulators to audit their farms due to the whims of consumers outside their state’s borders.
Risk of putting farm families out of business by significantly increasing the cost of raising pigs.
Increased prices at the grocery store , as much as 41% for certain pork products.

A Dangerous Patchwork of Regulations
For reasons like these and more, bipartisan support for providing relief from a patchwork of state laws continues to grow with support from President Donald Trump, former President Joe Biden, and their respective Agriculture Secretaries Brooke Rollins and Tom Vilsack, NPPC said in a release.

“The United States is constantly faced with non-tariff trade barriers from protectionist countries, which hurts American agriculture’s access to new markets. The last thing we need is for states like California imposing its will on ag-heavy states like Kansas with regulations that will also restrict our ability to trade among the states,” Marshall says. “Midwest farmers and ranchers who produce our nation’s food supply should not be hamstrung by coastal activist agendas that dictate production standards from hundreds of miles away.”

And it’s not just the pork industry rallying around this legislation.

“Iowa soybean farmers are grateful for Senator Ernst’s leadership to address challenges Prop 12 creates for Iowa farmers,” says Iowa Soybean Association President and farmer, Brent Swart. “Not only do the increased costs of compliance threaten to put pork farmers out of business, Prop 12 increases the price of pork at the grocery store by as much as 40%. Higher prices for pork dampen demand for this high-quality protein which negatively impacts market demand for soybeans used for pig feed. This legislation gives us a chance to protect our farms, our livelihoods, and ultimately, families that need affordable food.”

Iowa Cattlemen’s Association President, Rob Medberry, points out that the Iowa Cattle industry has made it clear that government overreach and overregulation is incredibly burdensome to industries that provide safe, quality and sustainable products for the world.

“Proposition 12 has the potential to further dismantle the livestock industry with the lack of science-based measures. Proposition 12 has already proven to be an unfunded mandate with consumers unwilling to pay premiums for the products that must be compliant with the proposition,” Medberry says. “The inherent cost to become compliant is overbearing and the simple fact of dollars and cents does not add up.”

Opponents Strike Back
Opposition such as the Humane World Action Fund, formerly called Humane Society Legislative Fund, argue against this legislation.

“This bill would hand over sweeping power to a narrow segment of the agriculture industry, overriding the will of voters, dismantling state laws and eliminating hard-won voter-supported protections for the humane treatment of farm animals, food safety and farm workers,” says Sara Amundson, president of Humane World Action Fund. “Let’s be clear: this is a federal overreach that serves Big Pork, not the American people.”

Amundson claims this legislation has been driven by a small group of pork industry lobbyists.

It’s Not Just About Pigs
But Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA) President Stu Swanson disagrees.

“With barriers like Proposition 12 cutting off our ability to supply fellow Americans with Iowa grown pork, it’s not only those families who are being affected, but also our farm families here in Iowa,” Swanson points out.

Iowa Turkey Federation Executive Director Gretta Irwin adds that these inconsistencies create unnecessary burdens for farmers operating across state lines, hinder efficient production, and undermine well-established, science-based practices developed in coordination with industry experts.

Swanson says this is an issue for all of agriculture and one his organization plans to continue to work on with their livestock partners until it gets resolved.

“Consistent with its authorities under the Commerce Clause, it’s time for Congress to solve this problem by passing legislation,” Grassley says. “Our bill will end California’s war on breakfast and make sure delicious Iowa pork can be sold everywhere.”

Stay up to date on Prop 12 here.

Grains Markets Absorb Tariff News, But Why Did Livestock Fail?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:38:33 GMT

Grains end mostly higher on Monday, with livestock seeing triple digit losses.

Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says old crop corn and soybeans rebound as well as the wheat market which have absorbed much of the tariff news.

Of course corn and wheat are USMCA compliant and so that leaves those commodities less impacted by tariffs than soybeans which have been hit by China retaliatory measures.

However, she says corn and wheat were also adding weather premium.

Flooding in the Ohio River Valley and mid-South will cause some replant and planting delays, which the corn market can’t afford with the push to plant 95.3 million acres.

Soft red winter wheat area also saw flooding and there was some freeze damage over the weekend in hard red winter wheat fields.

Wheat also saw some short covering as the funds are still largely short all three wheat classes.

Soybeans also saw some short covering off the lows but may still be vulnerable with possible China soybean cancellations of soybeans left unshipped.

Grains are also positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE Report with anticipation of lower old crop ending stocks for corn.

Blohm says demand has been strong for old crop corn and she thinks its possible the carryout could come in below the trade estimate of 1.5 billion bu., which would be bullish.

As far as South America crop adjustments, she isn’t expecting many changes by USDA in this report.

Livestock saw triple digit losses with additional fund liquidation despite a recovery off the lows in the stock market.

Blohm says cattle were due for a correction and have seen fund selling with the plunge in the stock market and recessionary fears.

So the lower close despite a recovery in financial markets off the lower was discouraging.

However, she says so far cattle futures are still holding uptrend lines on the charts.

Lean hog futures also ended lower after some early strength as President Trump renewed threats to increase Chinese tariffs another 50% if Beijing did not lower their retaliatory measures.

EXCLUSIVE: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:36:22 GMT

Time is running out for USDA to issue the nearly $10 billion of economic relief payments to farmers . Congress approved a 90-day window to release those payments, and in an exclusive interview with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Thursday morning, we asked when exactly those payments will be released. Rollins confirmed to Farm Journal that those payments will be released before the current deadline.

“Congress gave us until March 21, that is the ideal deadline,” Rollins said. “It looks like we’re going to be able to beat that, so it should be just around the corner.”

As USDA works to release those payments within the next few weeks, according to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.

Pro Farmer Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the only issue that could impact that timing is a possible government shutdown. If the government shuts down beginning March 15, and those payments haven’t been released yet, that could impact the March 21 deadline.

Wiesemeyer also reports based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year, which are:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

Payment Cap
Like other recent disaster programs, the payment limit for farmers will depend on how much of a farmer’s income is derived from agriculture. However, this program is based on average gross income rather than adjusted gross income (AGI).

The payment cap will be:

If < 75% of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $125,000
If 75% or more of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $250,000
USDA says standard FSA “actively engaged in farming” requirements apply

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

Update on Timing of $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu
Led by Rollins, USDA announced on Wednesday plans to invest up to $1 billion in new funding to combat impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and soaring egg prices.

“The important piece is not just this immediate short-term goal of getting the cost of eggs down and repopulating our layers and locking our barns down,” Rollins told Farm Journal on Thursday. “But much more importantly, perhaps, is figuring this out for the long term, so we’re not having the same conversation over and over and over again.”

The avian flu plan, which USDA rolled out on Wednesday, includes five major points:

Dedicate up to $500 million to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard” biosecurity measures. USDA has developed a successful pilot program, called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, to identify and implement more safety measures. USDA will pay up to 75% of the cost to address any identified biosecurity vulnerabilities at poultry farms.
Make up to $400 million of increased financial relief available to farmers whose flocks are affected by avian flu, and USDA will assist farmers in receiving faster approval to begin safe operations again after an outbreak.
USDA is exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for laying chickens. While vaccines aren’t a stand-alone solution, they will provide up to $100 million in research and development of vaccines and therapeutics, to improve their efficacy and efficiency. This should help reduce the need to depopulate flocks, which means killing chickens on a farm where there’s an outbreak. Note: USDA hasn’t yet authorized the use of a vaccine. Before making a determination, USDA will consult state leaders, poultry and dairy farmers, and public-health professionals. The agency will also work with trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns.
USDA will take other actions to lower the price of eggs. For starters, it will remove unnecessary regulatory burdens on egg producers where possible. This will include examining the best way to protect farmers from overly prescriptive state laws, such as California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens.
USDA will consider temporary import options to reduce egg costs in the short term. They will proceed with imports only if the eggs meet stringent U.S. safety standards and if they determine that doing so won’t jeopardize American farmers’ access to markets in the future.

As for the $500 million that will go toward beefing up biosecurity efforts, Rollins says that will happen immediately.

“The team is putting together right now the guardrails for that, but I think they’re almost finished, and that money should be moving out very quickly,” Rollins told Farm Journal. “That biosecurity money is based on a pilot program where 150 different egg laying farms were piloted on specific biosecurity measures. Of those 150, only one has seen the avian flu. Once they implemented, there’s a massive audit that USDA comes in. They help audit. We’re hiring a whole bunch of new folks to come on board to do that — and new epidemiologists to help us work through all of the science on this, and hopefully you see that immediately.”

Where is the $1 Billion Coming From?
At a time when the Trump administration is looking to save money, not spend, we asked Rollins where exactly is the $1 billion of funds going to be sourced.

“We’ve repurposed funds from other programs within USDA, so this is not spending new money,” Rollins said. “Clearly, we’re in an era where President Trump’s vision is to really streamline government, but this is not that. This is outside that lane. This is a really, really important issue. You know, it’s affecting every single American, not just our poultry producers. And so there’s short-term and long-term fixes here now.”

Some of that money, however, is coming from savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

“We are pulling it from multiple different pots. But yes, there’s no doubt that we’ve been able to find some serious savings in DOGE,” Rollins said. “We’ve canceled almost a thousand DEI trainings that were across USDA.... All of it adds up, and we’ve really pulled a lot of that money back. And now putting it where we think it really helps farmers and ranchers.”

What Will It Take for the Ag Economy to Recover

Rollins is set to give the keynote address at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Friday. Rollins told Farm Journal there are a lot of farmers hurting in this economy, saying “it’s one of the worst for that industry that we’ve seen in decades.”

Considering 64% of ag economists think the row crop sector of agriculture is in a recession , we asked Rollins what it will take for the ag economy to recover.

“There’s no doubt, to your point, a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of input down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” said Rollins.

Rollins says when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. And she says the growign trade deficit is something President Trump wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure that they could make some kind of a profit,” said Rollins. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation, the cost of energy has absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. So when you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. And we’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the president’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital, making sure that that the cost of inputs goes down. Hopefully with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. And I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change.”

During the the first Cabinet meeting in President Trump’s second-term, which was held Wednesday, President Trump floated 25% tariffs on the European Union.

“Obviously, tariffs always come up. I’m always saying, ‘let’s be very, very careful and intentional how we move here,’” Rollins said about the first Cabinet meeting. “The border came up, immigration deportations came up. So all the things that the ag community is concerned about that came up, course, I’m at the table. My job is to ensure that that our community’s voice is heard, but also to help effectuate the president’s vision. And we’re moving forward on all fronts.”

You can listen to the complete interview with Secretary Rollins below.

Your Next Read:
EXCLUSIVE: As DOGE Works to Stop ‘Wasteful Spending,’ Ag Secretary Rollins Says Vital Farm Programs Aren’t at Risk

Trump Sows Confusion on Tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Floats 25% Duty for EU Goods

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 21:25:22 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.

A White House official, however, said Trump’s previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending his review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the U.S. Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.

“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all ofthem but a lot of them.”

Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.

Canada’s Finance Ministry and Mexico’s Economy Ministry both declined to comment on Trump’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to “overall” tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4 deadline was still in effect.

“So the big transaction is April 2, but the fentanyl-related things, we’re working hard on the border,”
Lutnick said during the cabinet meeting. “At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that they’ve satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he’ll give them a pause, or he won’t.”

EU Tariff Rate

Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs that would match the import duty rates of other countries and offset their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff.

Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate for goods from the European Union, replied: “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25%, generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things.”

He said the EU is a “different case” from Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.

“They don’t accept our cars. They don’t accept, essentially our farm products,” Trump said, adding that the EU was formed “in order to screw the United States.”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, is in Washington and will meet U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, a spokesman said. She is not slated to meet with any Trump administration officials.

New U.S. Trade Representative Confirmed

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 56-43 to confirm Jamieson Greer as Trump’s new U.S. Trade Representative, putting a veteran of the Republican president’s first-term trade wars fully on the job.

Greer, who served as chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, won the support of five Democrats, including both senators from Michigan, the center of the U.S. auto industry.

Trade groups welcomed Greer’s confirmation, lauding his commitment to consulting with industry and standing up for U.S. businesses, farmers and workers. “We share Ambassador Greer’s desire for an active and pragmatic trade policy that creates

U.S. jobs and more resilient supply chains,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Greer told senators during his Senate confirmation hearing that he wanted to quickly renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to ensure China does not use it as a back door to the U.S. market to avoid other tariffs.

“Right out of the gate, I expect that we’ll be taking a second look at the USMCA,” Greer said.

Asked what changes he would like to see in the pact, Greer zeroed in on further tightening automotive content rules.

“I think we should look at the rule of origin for automobiles and aerospace and other things to look and see if we need to have any kind of restriction on content or value added from foreign countries of concern, or non-market economies,” he said, using language that U.S. trade officials often use to describe China.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by Bo Erickson and Ryan Jones in Washington, Brendan O’Boyle in Mexico City and Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dan Burns, David Gregorio and Paul Simao)

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 15:02:27 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

Your next read: With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

A Farm Bill Extension Without Economic Aid for Farmers Sparks Intense Negotiations and Debate in Congress

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:47:43 GMT

A one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, tied to the continuing resolution (CR), has sparked intense negotiations over economic assistance to farmers. Initially, leaders considered diverting Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds intended for the National Resources Conservation Service in exchange for farmer aid. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opposed this, aligning with President-elect Donald Trump’s intent to dismantle the IRA in the next Congress.

Sensing an opening, Democrats pushed for concessions in return for their support, proposing initiatives like 100% federal funding for Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, duty-free trade benefits for Haiti and Africa, funding for museums honoring women and Hispanics, and re-entry support for former inmates under the Second Chance Act.

AFBF Calls for a No Vote If Congress Ignores Ag Recession 📰 https://t.co/ejlB4kQZh4 https://t.co/WaArdCYkdw
— American Farm Bureau (@FarmBureau) December 14, 2024

Farm-state lawmakers, pushed by farm group lobbyists, said they would not support a CR without farmer aid. American Farm Bureau Federation publicly called on lawmakers to oppose the stopgap bill if it doesn’t include farm aid. “I call on members of Congress who represent ag to stand with farmers by insisting the supplemental spending bill include economic aid for farmers and voting it down if it doesn’t,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said Saturday.

The Dilimma

Democrats know Johnson wants farmer aid language and must rely on them to help pass it, perhaps a majority of votes. House GOP leaders may have to take the CR up under suspension, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. If congressional leaders release CR bill text today, the House may not vote until Thursday. If so, the Senate could follow on Thursday or more likely on Friday.

Unlocking the farm aid package is the key to a broader CR deal. Both sides want to get aid to farmers, but they differ on the funding mechanisms. Republicans rejected a Democratic offer to include about $10 billion in aid to farmers while moving several conservation/climate programs into the farm bill baseline, which technically scores as deficit neutral. Republican leaders opposed continuing the conservation programs beyond their 2031 expiration, as they’d like to claw back as much of the 2022 law’s climate-related spending as possible once they have full control of the House, Senate and White House next year. Democrats in turn rejected a GOP counteroffer of $12 billion in unoffset economic aid, saying it came at the expense of some of Biden’s requested $21 billion in emergency agricultural assistance for farmers and ranchers impacted by natural disasters

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and other farm groups announced opposition to any year-end spending package that excludes economic assistance for agricultural producers. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized the urgent need for aid as farmers grapple with inflation, soaring input costs, and declining commodity prices.

Ragland, a soy farmer from Kentucky, called on congressional leaders to re-engage in negotiations to deliver both economic and disaster relief. He warned that failing to act would exacerbate the financial struggles of farmers, potentially leading to widespread impacts on rural communities and the broader U.S. economy. Soybean prices have fallen 40% over two years, with many farmers citing an insufficient safety net to weather the crisis.

ASA and other agricultural groups argue that without meaningful support, the nation risks an escalating agricultural recession that will reverberate through households across the country.

Meanwhile, the National Cotton Council (NCC) said it also strongly opposes any supplemental spending package that lacks meaningful short-term assistance for farmers. An NCC statement said the failure of Congress to provide short-term support to producers will mean that many farm families will go out of business in 2025, leading to devastating impacts throughout the rural economy. “We urge Congressional leadership to return to the negotiating table to find a path forward on economic assistance. If not, we will vigorously oppose a supplemental spending package that does not provide the immediate support our producers need. The current stalemate is a completely unacceptable outcome,” said NCC Chairman Joe Nicosia.

American Cotton Producer Chairman David Dunlow of North Carolina said, “Our producers will lose as much as $300 per acre on this year’s harvest due to soaring production costs and low market prices. Unfortunately, political gamesmanship has resulted in legislators turning their back on farmers during our hour of greatest need.”

Senate Democrats Respond

House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) and Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) issued a statement ( link ) condemning Republican Leadership for rejecting a $10 billion farm bill extension proposal. They said the Democrats’ plan aimed to provide economic aid and bolster conservation programs without diverting funds from disaster relief. They warned that the GOP’s counteroffer falls short, jeopardizing farmers’ livelihoods and risking widespread foreclosures.

Congressional Democrats are proposing $9.8 billion in economic assistance to farmers that is completely paid for and doesn’t add a penny to the deficit. This is real help that will reach farmers by the spring planting season. pic.twitter.com/9ty2uSKDFJ
— Senate Ag, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee Dems (@SenateAgDems) December 11, 2024

“For weeks, congressional Democrats have provided a pathway to a farm bill extension that will deliver tens of billions of dollars in economic assistance and investments in farm bill programs that farmers rely on,” Stabenow said in a statement. “Republican Leadership turned down this $10 billion proposal, rejecting needed economic assistance and increased conservation spending for decades. It is important to stress that this proposal is paid for and does not take any funding away from the critical natural disaster aid that has been requested. Their eleventh-hour offer fell short of what farmers need, shortchanged critical farm bill programs, and steals from critically needed assistance to address recent natural disasters. We can and should do both economic and disaster assistance, not pit one against the other.”

Senate GOP Lashes Out

House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking on the Senate Ag panel, criticized Democrats for neglecting rural needs and announced their opposition to any package lacking robust farmer assistance.

.@FarmBureau calls for prioritizing emergency assistance for farmers.

"We lost 141,000 farms in five years and if Congress fails to include economic aid for farmers, the sad reality is that we’ll lose more."

Read the statement: https://t.co/lQuJ35f2R1
— Senate Ag Committee Republicans (@SenateAgGOP) December 14, 2024

”America’s farmers have lost over $30 billion this year. And for the last few months we have led many of our colleagues in raising the concerns of the farm community in meetings, in hearings, on the House and Senate floors, and in private conversations with other Republicans and Democrats. We are deeply disappointed to learn that congressional leadership is failing to provide our farmers with the economic assistance they need to weather the crisis they are currently facing,” Boozman and Thompson said in a release “Last week, Republican leaders offered Leader Schumer and Leader Jefferies a $12 billion economic aid package for our nation’s farmers, which they rejected. It appears that congressional Democrats have not learned the lessons of the most recent election and continue to neglect the needs of rural America.”

Chances of a Strike at East Coast and West Coast Ports are Growing; Here's How it Could Impact Farmers

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 16:21:38 GMT

A potential dock workers’ strike Oct. 1 on the East Coast and Gulf Coast would not significantly impact grain export facilities.

The contract ends on September 30, and so far, no formal negotiations have been held and none are scheduled. The strike would have limited impact on bulk grain exports, including corn and soybeans. Bulk grain export facilities would not be affected by the strike as these facilities typically operate with different labor arrangements, such as their own employees or different labor unions.

The majority of soybean and grain exports from the Gulf or East Coast would not be impacted by the negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

While bulk grain exports would be largely unaffected, the strike would impact containerized agricultural exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and other agricultural products exported via containers would be affected.

In 2023, container shipments of soybeans through East and Gulf Coast ports totaled around 100 million bushels, compared to nearly 1 billion bushels of bulk soybean exports from the Gulf.

Specific containerized soybean exports that could be impacted include:
• Norfolk: 1,616,854 metric tons
• New York/New Jersey: 372,110 metric tons
• Baltimore: 324,500 metric tons
• Charleston: 217,892 metric tons
• Other ports with smaller volumes

Indirect effects on grain producers. While grain export facilities may not be directly impacted, there could be indirect effects on grain producers: The strike would significantly impact exports of chilled or frozen meat, eggs, and other livestock products, which are primarily shipped in containers. Any harm to the U.S. livestock industry would indirectly affect soybean and grain farmers, as these industries are interconnected. East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 44% of U.S. waterborne pork exports and 29% of waterborne beef exports in the first half of this year. New York/New Jersey, Wilmington and Charleston were the largest East/Gulf ports for pork exports and Houston was largest for beef.

Of note: One industry contact emailed: “There might be some limited disruptions to bulk grain exports because of sympathy with the strikers or just general disruption at a particular location.”

Another contact emailed: “Many of the containers are going to be fulfilled by smaller to mid-size regional cooperatives and privates. Thus, the impacts will be felt more acutely, severely and quickly than in some of the larger commercials and co-ops. Also, my understanding is that around 40% of all ag containers go off east/southeast ports and 60% off west. So, we’re talking a real impact to ag.”

What could happen. The Biden administration has decided not to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to intervene in a labor dispute, a law that allows the president to step in during serious labor conflicts when national health or safety is at risk. The Taft-Hartley Act has been invoked 37 times in the past, allowing for an 80-day “cooling off” period, but Biden officials confirmed they are not considering using it in this case. The last time it was invoked was in 2002 by President George W. Bush during a West Coast port lockout. Instead, Biden has previously opted for negotiation strategies, such as sending officials to mediate labor disputes.

Retailers are seeking some alternatives. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled a combined 966,231 loaded container imports last month, up more than 27% from a year ago and the highest volume since May 2021. West Coast ports, which lost a big share of import trade during a long stretch of congestion in the Covid pandemic, are winning back cargo. In June and July, West Coast ports handled 61% of imports from Asia, the highest share of that market since October 2021, according to transportation data firm Xeneta.

U.S. ports handle a surge of imports in August.

(Bloomberg )

Of note: The energy industry could also be affected: Gulf Coast ports are crucial for energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). Any disruptions could impact the flow of energy resources. These industries are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on timely shipments, just-in-time inventory systems, and the critical nature of their products.

Bottom line: While the potential dock workers’ strike would not directly impact bulk grain export facilities, it could have significant effects on containerized agricultural exports and indirectly affect grain producers through disruptions in the livestock industry. The potential strike would affect 36 ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, from Maine to Texas.

Negotiations between the two parties have stalled, with several issues remaining unresolved: wage increases, limits on port automation, and use of automated technology to process trucks without union labor. The ILA has voted unanimously to support a strike if their demands are not met. As of mid-September, the two sides appear to be far apart in negotiations.

ILA President Harold Daggett has stated, “The ILA most definitely will hit the streets on October 1st if we don’t get the kind of contract we deserve.” Last-minute agreements are not uncommon in labor negotiations, so the situation could change rapidly in the coming days.

Of note: The energy industry could also be affected: Gulf Coast ports are crucial for energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). Any disruptions could impact the flow of energy resources. These industries are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on timely shipments, just-in-time inventory systems, and the critical nature of their products.

Bottom line: While the potential dock workers’ strike would not directly impact bulk grain export facilities, it could have significant effects on containerized agricultural exports and indirectly affect grain producers through disruptions in the livestock industry. The potential strike would affect 36 ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, from Maine to Texas. Negotiations between the two parties have stalled, with several issues remaining unresolved: wage increases, limits on port automation, and use of automated technology to process trucks without union labor. The ILA has voted unanimously to support a strike if their demands are not met. As of mid-September, the two sides appear to be far apart in negotiations. ILA President Harold Daggett has stated, “The ILA most definitely will hit the streets on October 1st if we don’t get the kind of contract we deserve.” Last-minute agreements are not uncommon in labor negotiations, so the situation could change rapidly in the coming days.

Your Next Read: Pork Strikes Will Have a Significant Impact on Meat Exports

The Future of the Food Supply Chain Depends On Your Choices Today

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 22:20:44 GMT

The future of food depends on sustainable farming — and pork and soybean producers are leading the charge to protect both the planet and the supply chain.

When the word “sustainability” comes to mind, many think of practices that maintain resources and ensure the future of production agriculture. Today, the sustainability stakes are higher than ever.

Lucas Lentsch, CEO of the United Soybean Board, says sustainability is more than just a buzzword.

“It’s something farmers believe in. It’s about ensuring multiple generations can continue farming while maintaining public trust,” he explains.

This commitment is woven into farming operations in numerous ways, including nutrient management, crop rotation and resource stewardship. But why does this matter? The food system is interconnected, and the choices made on farms today will determine the health of the land and the security of the food supply.

The sustainability stakes are higher than ever.

(National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff)

In 2018, the pork and soybean commodity organizations recognized their interdependence. Corn and soy provide feed for pigs, and in turn, pigs help maintain soil health through the nutrients their manure provides.

“ 60% of the cost and impact of sustainability in pork production comes from the feed the hogs consume ,” says Bill Even, CEO of the National Pork Board.

The relationship between these sectors is symbiotic, where the nutrient cycle directly affects the efficiency and sustainability of both crop and livestock production.

“You take livestock nutrients, put them on the land to grow corn and soybeans, which becomes feed for the pigs, and out pops a ham,” Even explains.

This cycle, while often overlooked by the broader public, is a key reason why on-farm sustainability matters so much. It’s not just about individual farm practices — it’s about sustaining an entire food system that millions rely on daily. Farmers have always focused on sustainability, even if it went by other names such as conservation or stewardship.

“It’s doing the right thing when nobody’s looking because you know it’s the right thing to do,” Lentsch says.

As consumer demands for sustainability have grown, particularly in the food supply chain, farmers are stepping up to meet those expectations. Restaurants and retailers now seek sustainably produced pork and soybeans, pushing producers to share their progress transparently.

A farmer spreads feed on a mat for a new group of pigs.

(National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff)

“They know as a brand they have to do their part,” Lentsch says. “It’s all integrated from the farm gate through to the consumer’s grocery experience.”

To back up these claims, the National Pork Board has developed the Pork Cares Farm Impact Report , a third-party verified, personalized report that is also aggregated for state and national pork associations. This transparency is essential for maintaining consumer trust and showing that pork producers are aligned with larger environmental goals.

While the cost of implementing sustainability practices can be a concern for farmers, Even points out these practices can actually boost a farm’s credibility and market competitiveness. Programs such as USDA’s “ Farmers for Soil Health ” initiative are helping to make sustainability more accessible. The program is an initiative backed by National Pork Board, United Soybean Board and National Corn Growers Association through the USDA Partnership for Climate-Smart Commodities. It aims to double the number of corn and soybean acres using cover crops by 2030, which will significantly improve soil health and farm resilience in the long run.

Both the National Pork Board and United Soybean Board are farmer-led organizations, ensuring that decisions about sustainability are made by those who understand the industry’s challenges firsthand. These efforts aren’t just about environmental responsibility — they’re about ensuring the future of farming in an increasingly competitive and resource-constrained world.

“Would you miss us if we were gone?” Lentsch asks. “The entire food chain would miss what farmers do, whether it’s raising pork, poultry or the commodities that feed them. It’s all part of an integrated society.”

His point is clear: Sustainability isn’t just important for farmers — it’s critical for the future of the entire food supply chain, and ultimately, for all consumers.

Your Next Read: Don’t Back Down From the Hard Stuff in the Pork Industry