Real Estate

44 Million Acres: The New Frontier of Farm Consolidation and Growth

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 18:00:31 GMT

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit , Farm Journal Intelligence unveiled new farmland insights derived from predictive modeling and deep-data analysis. The research focused on the shifting landscape of land acquisition, identifying which operations are at risk of consolidation, who is positioned for growth and where the most significant opportunities lie.

Here are the six primary findings for farm businesses:

1. Scale Does Not Immune Operations from Consolidation.

(Farm Journal)

While smaller operations face the highest risk — with 58% of small farms “at risk” for sale or acquisition before 2030 — size is not a complete safeguard. Research shows the risk of consolidation or ownership transfer never drops below 27%, even for the largest operations. Furthermore, crop diversity made minimal impact on these odds; the likelihood of transition remains constant whether a farm produces one crop or more than 11.

2. Geography Trumps Diversification.

(Farm Journal)

Regional location is increasingly becoming a primary driver of financial success, often outweighing the benefits of operational diversification. As regional market divides grow, farmers and ranchers are finding that local market conditions and individual circumstances dictate their trajectory more. State-level or even county-level effects are more indicative of their situation than national trends.

3. The 44-Million-Acre Transition.

(Farm Journal)

Nearly 15% of American cropland is projected to change hands within the next three years, driven by generational transfers, continued consolidation and economic pressures. Farm Journal data identifies the Midwest as the epicenter of this shift, with roughly 12 million acres likely to transition. Nationwide, that total reaches a staggering 44 million acres.

4. Mapping the “Sweet Spot” for Expansion.

(Farm Journal)

By plotting cost per cropland acre against the volume of land likely to transition, clear opportunities for expansion emerge. For producers looking to grow their footprint, the most viable opportunities are currently concentrated in Kansas, Texas, North Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma, according to this research.

5. Integrity Is the Top Currency in Rental Markets.

(Farm Journal)

When more than 400 landowners were surveyed about tenant selection, integrity ranked as the most critical factor. Interestingly, age was reported as the least important factor. For producers looking to secure rented ground, a reputation for character and experience outweighs both seniority and youth.

6. The “Willingness” Factor in Technology.

(Farm Journal)

Producers most inclined to expand share a common trait: a higher comfort level and rate of adoption with technology. Crucially, this is not necessarily tied to technical skill or existing expertise, but rather to mindset and action. The most growth-oriented producers are defined by their willingness to try new technologies rather than their current mastery of them.

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What's Happening In The Land Market? Your Regional Breakdown

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 18:37:26 GMT

A new report from Farmers National Company (FNC) shows land values have remained relatively stable in the Midwest, with two types of buyers largely driving demand.

“There are many factors for buyer motivation, but much of it can be explained by mindset translating to demand,” said Paul Schadegg, senior vice president of real estate operations at Farmers National Company. “Farm operators continue to be the primary buyers of ag land. Their mindset or motivation revolves around reinvesting in their farm enterprise, expanding operations, and utilizing today’s farm equipment fully. Location of land offered for sale also plays a large role in their decision making, as often this land has not changed hands for generations and once sold, may not be sold again.”

FNC predicts farmers will remain the primary land buyer in 2025. The second largest buyer is investors, who Schadegg says are driven by a completely different motivation.

“There is virtually no emotional motivation, as buying decisions are based on return on investment or anticipated appreciation of land value,” Schadegg says. “Many land investors have not experienced the rise and fall of agriculture cycles but fully appreciate the long-term value of land. As pressures on the ag economy increase, investors stand ready to bid on land that fits their investment criteria.”

With farmland’s long-term appreciation and annual return on investment, there are currently more buyers than sellers out there. The company reports land listings are down across the industry, on average, 25% from the active and accelerating value market experienced between 2020-2023.

Regionally, this looks like:

Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky:
Sales have decreased in this area compared to the previous three years. Jay VanGorden, area sales manager for the east region, says land values have seen minimal price drops for highly tillable and quality soil-type farms in most areas, but farms with lower-quality soils, lower tillable percentages, and poorer drainage have dropped off more significantly.
Illinois and Wisconsin:
Land sale values have increased in some parts of this region. Nate Zimmer, area sales manager for the east-central region, says record-breaking sales aren’t as common as they were though, and no-sales are popping up more - a sign seller and buyer expectations are not in alignment. Zimmer adds the method of listing is shifting more toward private treaty as well.
Iowa and Southern Minnesota:
Average land values have dropped 5% to 10% in the past year in Iowa and southern Minnesota. Thomas Schutter, area sales manager for this region, says alternative sale methods have become more common here, particularly for lower-quality farms. While higher-quality farms are still predominantly sold through auctions, there has been an increase in the use of traditional listings and sealed bids for marketing farmland in some areas.
Kansas, Eastern Colorado, Western Missouri:
Values have fallen in some areas of the south-central region, such as in southwest Kansas due to water availability. But other areas are still fetching top dollar for high-quality cropland and recreation properties, according to area sales manager Steve Morgan.
Western Nebraska, Northwest Kansas, Northeastern Colorado:
Cole Nickerson, area sales manager for the western region, says neighborhood demand and land quality are the primary drivers in the western region. Land values have remained high in regions with strong cattle production, high-quality irrigated and productive dryland farms and quality grassland. He adds economic challenges in the corn and soybean markets have made farmland more difficult to sell in areas dominated by row crop production.
Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa:
Chanda Scheuring, area sales manager for the west-central region, has seen the buyer-pool in this area shrinking. She shares buyers, both local farmers and investors, are still interested in making farm purchases. However, they’ve become more selective with properties and the price they are willing to pay.
Dakotas and Western Minnesota:
The land market in the northern regions is best described as chaotic, according to area sales manager Troy Swee.

“Land values remain very strong in areas where not much land has sold, and the producers had an above-average crop in 2024,” Swee explains. “However, in areas with less investor interest and where several farms have already been sold, land values appear to be down 10% to 15%.”

Your Next Read: New Trends Are Emerging In The Farmland Market

Changes To Expect In The Farmland Market This Fall

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 12:43:27 GMT

The U.S. farmland market is changing, according to Jim Rothermich of Iowa Appraisal. He recently joined the Top Producer podcast to share the ways he’s seeing the transition occur.

“Auctioneers are struggling to get some of it sold,” Rothermich says. “We had 27 no sales [in Iowa] in the first six months of this year. That’s a lot.”

After multiple years of a red-hot land market, the high number of no sales is a new trend to watch.

“Auctioneers are saying the last bid has been 10% to 20% below the reserve,” he says. “If I was to put the last bid of no-sale auctions in my data, I would say the market would be closer to 4% or 5% down from a year ago.”

Rothermich adds the market is down about 6% from its peak in 2022, which he sees as relatively healthy in comparison to current commodity prices. But that downward trend is still troubling some auctioneers.

“Just from visiting with the auctioneers, I know they’re concerned right now,” he says. “They think they’re going to have a fairly active fall selling season, but they’re worried people are going to start pulling back. And I see that happening, going forward.”

Despite the softening overall, he believes high-quality farm ground will still sell for a premium.

“Buyers will still pay up for good ground,” Rothermich says. “I analyzed the top 25 sales from the first six months of last year and this year, and there was essentially no difference. It was maybe less than 1% different.”

Rothermich is still anticipating an active auction season this fall and encourages potential buyers to do their research and stay informed.

“Market conditions are changing. They’re trending down, and there’s going to be some opportunities out there,” he says.

Click here to hear more episodes of the Top Producer podcast .

Your Next Read: Farmland Values in Iowa Fall for the First Time in 5 Years

How To Align Environmental Metrics With Your Asset Management In Farmland

Mon, 20 May 2024 16:40:18 GMT

There’s no fast-forward button in farming to see how your investments pay off. But a recent time lapse playback by Iowa farmer Reid Weiland visually told the year-by-year story of how investing in a field yielded environmental and financial rewards.

“Things happen slow,” he says. “It’s the nature of farming one year to the next, and so it can take a decade for our story to develop.”

In the example above and video below, Weiland and his team identified low yielding areas and addressed fertility; they rebuilt and completed the main waterway in the field and added a second where needed; and they cleared an old building site. Piece by piece, season by season, their investments came to fruition.

Weiland Farms grows millet, corn and non-GMO, food-grade soybeans. Reid Weiland is managing partner/CEO and has been for the past 10 years since his father semi-retired.

The Case To Develop A Field Pedigree

With his leadership, Weiland and the team have developed an approach to manage their farmland (owned and leased) for environmental, productivity, and long-term financial payback. He says the need for this approach escalates as farm land has increased in market value.

“Think about where we’re spending $10,000 to $15,000 an acre today, and you don’t typically know what the fertility is,” he says. “You don’t know what the production history of it is. You don’t know any conservation or regenerative pieces that have gone through it. And we’re spending a million bucks for a tract, and we know very little about it.”

This highlights the opportunity of investing in regenerative practices that build up the land’s quality and performance but also emphasizes the risk of not doing so.

“Imagine because of macro economics, farmland doubled. It’s $30,000 an acre. Well, now we’re spending $2 million. How much more valuable is it to have what I would call a pedigree — a production pedigree, a regenerative pedigree?”

Weiland says such a land pedigree would have 10 years of cropping history with documentation of inputs applied by date and quantity.

“That could easily be worth $1,000 an acre for a $30,000 an acre farm, right?” he says.

Boost Land Value and Stewardship
Weiland Farms has made it a mindset to consider how they are investing back in their land with a two-prong goal: minimize environmental impact while boosting its value. Here are four goals the Iowa farm is focused on: Prevent soil erosion: methods include transitioning to minimal-till or no-till in highly erodible areas as well as installing grassed areas. Manage water quality: for example, explore opportunities for incentive funding to install filter systems that remove nitrates from water. Improve waterways: neglected waterways don’t do their intended job and can cause larger erosion issues. Invest in sustainable farming methods: think about how soil health improves long-term productivity.

Boost Land Value and Stewardship

Weiland Farms has made it a mindset to consider how they are investing back in their land with a two-prong goal: minimize environmental impact while boosting its value.

Here are four goals the Iowa farm is focused on:

Prevent soil erosion: methods include transitioning to minimal-till or no-till in highly erodible areas as well as installing grassed areas.
Manage water quality: for example, explore opportunities for incentive funding to install filter systems that remove nitrates from water.
Improve waterways: neglected waterways don’t do their intended job and can cause larger erosion issues.
Invest in sustainable farming methods: think about how soil health improves long-term productivity.

What Makes Farmland Different

From an investment management standpoint, Weiland says agriculture has fallen into a decades-long malaise with a culture that doesn’t encourage regularly informed management. Said another way, farmland is a unique asset because it doesn’t depreciate or require hands-on management from the owner if an operator is in place.

“If you were to correlate a farmland investment to an investment in an apartment building, they are similar but very different. An apartment building needs to be managed almost daily, the roof may need to be replaced, etc.,” he says. “Just like an apartment building, farmland is a solid asset base that you’re generating a return on. But you may have a landowner who hasn’t talked to a tenant in a couple of years. Who owns something worth a million dollars and doesn’t receive a regular report on it from the person managing it? It sounds ridiculous but some landowners can get lulled into complacency without realizing it.”

Physical Investments

Weiland says the approach is a combination of agronomic practices and physical improvements. A current tool they are using is controlled drainage structures.

“It’s estimated that 20% to 50% of water leaving the farm is leaving the farm unnecessarily; that means we are shipping 20% to 50% more water down the Mississippi River than we really need to,” he says. “In addition, these systems help us get in the field and plant when we need to. So, we are holding water, which we know contains nitrates, when we can and still are able to manage the soil moisture for field work.”

Weiland Farms’ first controlled drainage structure was installed this past year, and there are more installations in the works.

“It’ll take us multiple years to learn about this management tool and how it pays back, but we see the benefits already,” he says.

With multiple metrics, progress is tracked as it’s realized.

—Kristin Leigh Lore, Manager of Climate-Smart Content, Trust In Food, contributed reporting to this story.

Farmland Values Are Holding Up, But There Are Hints of a Reset At a New Level

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 23:48:17 GMT

Eye-popping land sales continue to take the farmland market by storm. From the $34,800 per acre land sale in Missouri that smashed records last fall, to farmland in Sioux County, Iowa, selling for more than $22,000 per acre to start the year, it’s proof the strength in the farmland market hasn’t fizzled out yet.

“The key point, without a doubt, is resiliency,” says Paul Schadegg, senior vice president of Real Estate at Farmers National Company (FNC).

A new report from the company shows even with declining commodity prices and elevated interest rates, land values are higher than expected.

“We really haven’t seen any decreases to speak of, and there are still some really strong sales out there in the country,” Schadegg says.

“It is just remarkable how stable these market conditions have been,” says Jim Rothermich, vice president of agricultural appraisals for Iowa Appraisal. “Based on my auction data, farmland values are down 1% from 2022 to 2023, and I think it’s amazing we’re seeing it hold up that well.”

Farmers in the Driver’s Seat
The farmland market in Iowa remains the strongest, but both Rothermich and Schadegg say there are other states with impressive sales.

“Illinois and Indiana have picked up a little steam — a lot of the sales are in the $20,000-plus range,” Schadegg says.

While resilient farmland prices were the theme in 2023, Rothermich recently uncovered one change in the market.

“One thing I have noticed is the number of price reductions on the listings of these companies. I haven’t seen that before,” Rothermich says. “It’s a sign the market is being affected by high interest rates.”

He’s also seen an uptick in no sales in auction, yet farmers are still in the driver’s seat in most farmland sales.

“Over the past several years, when this land market really took off, the primary pool of buyers have been operating farmers, and they continue to be the most successful buyer of land,” Schadegg says.

(Farm Journal)

A Potential Reset
Now the question is: Just how much of a correction could the farmland market see in 2024?

“If we look at the past 25 years, we’ve seen some run-up in land values, and then it resets at a new normal,” Schadegg says. “I think over the next 12 to 24 months, we’re probably going to see land values reset at a new level.”

“The last time we had a run-up was in 2013/14 when values went down 20% to 25%. It just doesn’t seem like it’s going to do that this time,” Rothermich says, who instead thinks the farmland market could be setting up for a correction in the single digits.

Mike Walsten of Pro Farmer’s LandOwner newsletter says the best-case scenario for 2024 is for prices to hold steady for better-quality ground.

“The more likely case, in my opinion, is a 5% decrease,” Walsten says. “I look for continued weakness going into 2025 to 2027, if things do not change radically. Values could correct 10% to 15% eventually. If energy prices go crazy again, a 20% decline is likely, but I don’t see prices correcting any more than that because I don’t see a rush of panic farm sales hitting the market and overwhelming demand.”

Walsten says farmers, in general, have manageable leverage in their recent purchases, and lenders aren’t willing to let farmers get overleveraged on land buys, which will constrain the number of farms that are moving to the market and help keep supply and demand in balance.

Important Differences Between Today and the 1980s Ag Economy

Wed, 01 Nov 2023 18:07:57 GMT

Indiana ag lender Joe Kessie graduated from Purdue University in 1983 with a degree in ag finance – during the height of the 1980s farm crisis.

“I think only about 25% of the graduates in the ag school had jobs at the time of graduation,” he says.

Though it was a tough time to be starting out in the industry, Kessie (who is now retired) is grateful to have experienced so much early on in his career.

“I always tell people I was fortunate to start when I did because I got to see everything that could go wrong in banking and ag finance during that farm crisis,” he says. “It was a little easier to be objective because I hadn’t made those original loans and was working with the clients to get through that.”

He was also able to help customers make the best of their situations.

“In the late ‘80s, early ‘90s, there were tremendous opportunities to take advantage of. Ground was down to $1,000 an acre or less in our area,” Kessie says. “I had some operations that were making adequate money even though their net worth still might have been going down with deflation. I helped them take advantage of some of those opportunities and I formed long term relationships.”

Insights on What’s to Come
Though inflation is currently high, Kessie doesn’t expect a repeat of what he experienced in his early career for three main reasons.

“Back in the ‘70s or early ‘80s, all the farm rates were all variable. When rates skyrocketed, basically all the debt on the balance sheet went up,” he says. “Today, about any kind of term debt is fixed at pretty attractive rates. The higher rates today are affecting operating and if you make a new purchase, but the other debt on the balance sheet is not affected.”

He also shares the overall farm balance sheet and management level is in better shape than it has previously been.

“The farm balance sheet was pretty leveraged in the ‘70s versus now it’s not,” Kessie says. “Overall, the management level is definitely better today than it would have been in the 70s. A lot of the inefficient operations, unfortunately, didn’t make it.”

Investment funds are another reason the state of the current ag economy differs from the 1980s.

“There’s a lot of farm cash buyers but then there’s also a strong interest in investors and investor funds,” Kessie says. “None of that was there in the ‘80s to support the market. The sales we’ve seen in real estate this year continues to go up, and demand is very strong.”

To hear more about Kessie’s reflections and expectations, check out this episode of the Top Producer podcast.

What Makes 2023 Land Sales Different Than 2022 or 2021?

Thu, 14 Sep 2023 16:37:54 GMT

On the heels of the September WASDE report, Davis Michaelson welcomed Doug Hensley from Hertz Real Estate on AgriTalk.

With yields and crop prices top of mind, Michaelson took the opportunity to ask Hensley: How much do crop prices actually impact the decision-making process of farmland buyers?

“Crop prices are one of the primary impacts when farmers are buying and/or selling land, but predominantly buying,” Hensley says. “The thing people often get caught up in is looking at any particular day in any particular week and saying, ‘Oh, this doesn’t pencil out a profit for me in today’s market.’ But when you think back over the last nine to 12 months, there have been opportunities to forward contract and hedge the 2023 crop at pretty profitable levels, though maybe not as profitable as it was a year ago. It’s important to look at production over a period of years to tell a bigger story.”

With that in mind, historical data on a field ranks up there in importance when buying land. “Get a hold of the 10-year APH data,” Hensley encourages.

How 2023 Stacks Up

Three-quarters of the way through 2023, Hensley says it’s been a steady year and actually a bit busier than anticipated after the record pace of land sales in 2021 and 2022 because of record profitability.

From 2015 through 2020, he says there were folks interested in selling land, but they sat on it because of the weak market. When the market turned in 2021, and especially in 2022, he saw a lot of people hit the button to go to auction.

“When you have a strong market over a 24-to-30-month period, at some point, it’s going to slow down,” Hensley says. “I thought that was going to happen in 2023, and it has slowed some, but not quite as much as I thought. In spite of lower grain prices and higher interest rates, we’re still seeing the market hold itself together pretty well.”

The depth in the market, from a buyer’s perspective, is not as great as it was a year ago, he says, except for top-quality farms, in terms of soil quality and drainage.

A year ago, when farmland went to auction, there might have been five or six buyers ready to line up and compete for it, Hensley says. Today, there’s still competition, but there might be two or three buyers who are really competing until the end.

When there are fewer buyers, land is less likely to sell for a record price. A year ago, almost every sale was a new record for the county or the area, but that hasn’t been the case across the Midwest this year.

“It was almost a powder keg last fall because of good yields and good prices. People were really flush,” Hensley says. “In today’s market, I think there’s still a ton of cash out there, but given a change in the economy, people are starting to be a little more protective of their liquidity.”

It’s not to say they won’t bid and buy, he adds, because they will. On Sept. 12, Hertz Real Estate had almost a $21,000 per acre sale, and the same was true almost two weeks ago.

From his standpoint, it’s important to be discerning as to which farms make the most sense to take to auction versus which ones to offer privately to the market, and how to go about it.

“This is a more interesting time in the land business because you get to be a broker and you’re solving problems and helping people navigate through a shifting market.”

Hog Farm in North Las Vegas Going Up for Auction

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:29:26 GMT

A North Las Vegas pig farm famous for recycling leftover casino buffet food is soon going up for auction.

City officials scheduled a news conference Monday to announce the development, which is expected to boost property values in the surrounding residential neighborhoods. The farm predates many of the homes nearby but spurs frequent complaints for its foul odors.

The development comes as the city builds a bridge and expands roads in the area of the farm. Its owner plans to move the operation to a quieter area north of the current location and closer to a landfill.

City officials say the starting bid for the 153-acre farm will be about $31 million. The auction is set for June, although the move and site cleanup are expected to take three years.