Produce Retail

As Grocery Prices Rise, Shoppers Change Their Habits

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 21:54:36 GMT

Consumers are changing how they shop as grocery prices continue to climb. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food-at-home prices rose 2.7% in 2025 compared to last year, with beef up nearly 14%, pork up about 1% and fresh produce increasing nearly 3% in late summer.

Amid that pressure, new data from Algolia’s consumer survey shows 73% of U.S. shoppers are stressed about grocery bills this year, and it’s influencing what lands in their carts. Nearly 40% have tried private-label products for the first time, seeking lower prices and better value.

“We’re seeing a huge lift in store brand customers,” says Nate Barad, vice president of product marketing for Algolia. “Customers may have been hesitant before, but both the quality of the store brands and the deals have come up. It’s become a win-win situation.”

Algolia’s survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, both in-store and online shoppers, found that 60% participate in grocery loyalty programs, and 70% enjoy using grocery app games or ‘adventures’ that offer discounts or new product trials. Nearly half (46%) said they want personalized deal recommendations based on their carts or past purchases.

Barad says these findings align with what Algolia sees from retailers using its AI-powered search and personalization tools.

How Fresh Fits Into the New Grocery Equation

While some analysts suggest shoppers are trading fresh for frozen, Barad says Algolia’s data shows something different: Consumers are rethinking how they plan meals and use ingredients, not necessarily abandoning fresh food.

“We haven’t seen a spike in frozen versus fresh,” he says. “What we’re seeing is how people come about it. They’re looking to use the same ingredients multiple times — like making chicken Parmesan pasta one day and a chicken Caesar salad the next. It’s about meal planning and stretching ingredients.”

This shift toward intentional meal planning means fresh produce remains a key component of shoppers’ baskets, but AI and search tools are changing how consumers discover what’s available and affordable.

“In produce, inventory is now part of the search,” Barad says. “Retailers are using product freshness, shelf life and inventory data to influence what shows up first when consumers search for items like tomatoes or romaine. The AI can prioritize produce that needs to move now, which helps reduce waste and improve margins while still meeting consumer demand.”

The ability to surface nearby, in-stock and discounted produce options also helps grocers manage tight margins while keeping “fresh” accessible to price-conscious customers, Barad says.

Tech-Driven Grocery Shopping

According to the Algolia survey, shoppers view AI as a means to assist them in their grocery hauls and inspire them to create healthy meals. Specifically, consumers are eager to leverage AI agents for the following use cases:

Real-time alerts about restocked items (58%).
Suggest foods/meals based on dietary needs (56%).
Organizing meal prep (51%).

Algolia’s AI-driven “virtual shelving” feature, which builds a personalized shelf view from a shopper’s list, has been especially popular, Barad says. Shoppers can upload a handwritten or voice-generated grocery list, and the AI populates comparable items by price, availability and brand.

“You can see all the romaine, all the pasta, all the chicken and all the cheeses,” Barad says. “From there, you decide if you want the organic chicken or the store-brand version. The AI helps you do more with less, finding the best cost on the products you actually want.”

He notes that while many consumers are cautious about AI (with 50% of survey respondents saying they don’t fully trust AI agents to shop for them), most see its potential for convenience and savings. Nearly 60% believe AI will make grocery shopping easier, and 56% are interested in AI tools that suggest foods or meals based on dietary needs.

Fresh Meat, Dairy and Repeat Buys

Although the survey didn’t break down results by protein or dairy category, Barad says Algolia’s retail data shows repeatable staples, such as milk, ground beef, lettuce and cheese, are key drivers of online cart growth.

According to the Algolia survey, nearly half of consumers (46%) want grocery retailers to offer deal recommendations tailored to their current cart or past purchases. This number rises to 51% for millennials and 52% for Gen X.

“When those essentials are automated, when shoppers don’t have to manually add things like hamburger or milk each week, we see up to a 50% lift in average order value,” Barad says.

He adds that for many retailers, securing those repeat fresh-item purchases is the key to building long-term loyalty.

Consumers’ growing comfort with AI-assisted shopping, combined with their stress over grocery bills, is accelerating a new kind of grocery economy: one where affordability, personalization and freshness converge.

Grocery / Fresh Price Trend Data, 2025

Overall groceries (food at home)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the food at home index (grocery store purchases) rose 2.7% over the 12 months ending August 2025.
More broadly, food (all food including home + away) increased ~3.2% year over year as of the same period.

Produce (fruits & vegetables / fresh produce)

The BLS index for fruits and vegetables rose 1.3% year over year in September 2025.
Earlier, for the 12 months ending August 2025, the fruits and vegetables index rose 1.9%.
On the retail side, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reported that in the first six months of 2025, retail prices for fresh vegetables fell about 2% compared to a year earlier.

Meat (beef, overall meats and poultry)

For the broader category “meats, poultry, fish, and eggs,” the BLS reports a +5.2% year-over-year increase in September 2025.
Beef and veal retail prices rose 2.7% from July 2025 to August 2025, and were 13.9% higher in August 2025 than in August 2024.
Also, herd supply remains tight, which contributed to upward pressure on cattle/beef supply.

Dairy

The BLS reports dairy and related products’ prices at grocery stores were up 0.7% year over year in September 2025.
In August 2025, the dairy and related products index rose about 1.3% over the prior 12-month period.

Wellness Tops the Shopping List for Younger Generations, Even During Economic Crisis

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 17:26:28 GMT

Millennials and Gen Z refuse to sacrifice healthy eating. According to Kearney’s Food System Outlook 2025, 90% of younger consumers prioritize spending on nutritious food, underscoring a generational shift that places wellness above traditional markers of status like cars or housing.

Global management consulting firm Kearney released a new report, Food System Outlook 2025: Competing in a rewired food system , revealing that the global food system is breaking away from traditional operating models. The comprehensive analysis shows how three disruptive forces (evolving consumer demands, supply chain consolidation and rapid technology adoption) are reshaping operations across five connected ecosystems: broadacre, specialty crops, protein, ingredients and manufacturing and distribution, according to a news release.

“The global food system is facing fundamental structural and systemic change, and the old food system playbook doesn’t work anymore. Input costs have never been higher, consumer expectations are more complex and technology is moving from optional to essential across every part of the food chain,” says Rob Dongoski, Kearney’s global lead of the food and agriculture sector and co-author of the report. “Companies that understand how the five ecosystems connect and move fastest to automate, build regional agility and align with consumer needs will define what comes next.”

The research identifies three enablers for success: automation and data integration, regional agility in production and sourcing, and consumer-aligned innovation. Companies are discovering that protecting margins requires rethinking entire operating models rather than making incremental improvements.

“We’re seeing a clear divide between companies that treat these changes as separate challenges versus those that are building integrated responses,” Dongoski says. “The winners are investing in automation partnerships, exploring CRISPR productivity gains and building climate-smart operations while simultaneously delivering on cost, transparency and sustainability.”

Rob Dongoski, Kearney’s global lead of the food and agriculture sector and co-author of the Food System Outcome 2025 report.

(Photo courtesy of Kearney)

The outlook examines specific ecosystem dynamics. In specialty crops, 70% of growers report investing in automation technologies, while controlled environment agriculture shows strawberry yields 2.3 times higher than traditional field cultivation. The protein sector is adopting feed additives that reduce methane emissions up to 45% for beef cattle while addressing consumer demand that remains strong despite early plant-based alternative projections.

A few highlights from the report:

Thirty-two percent of U.S. farmers use the internet to purchase agricultural products, and spend $500,000 a year on automation in response to the labor shortage.
AI solutions can reduce food waste and restaurant operating costs; CRISPR gene editing technology is projected to reduce costs by 15% to 20%.
New herbicide technologies can produce 76% savings in costs; pheromone-based pest control use has increased 56+% globally.
Ninety percent of millennial and Gen Z consumers prioritize spending on healthy food even in times of economic crisis.

When it comes to millennial and Gen Z consumers, Dongoski explains that these priorities are shaping the food industry in profound ways.

“Consumer preferences, state-level bans, new weight-loss drugs and SNAP benefits are all converging to create a consumer profile that trends much more towards fresh foods — fresh meat, fresh produce, fresh veggies — and away from highly processed, sugary, salty foods and beverages,” he says. “I think it’s a good time to be in the specialty crop space.”

According to The Packer’s Fresh Trends 2025 , millennials and Gen Z are leading the way in fresh produce consumption, with health being a key factor, as 81% of millennials and 79% of Gen Z cited “health reasons to get more produce in my diet.”

Among other reasons consumers say they are eating more produce, millennials rank highest in responding with “value/better bang for my buck,” (34%) and “because my doctor suggested I do so” (31%).

Specialty crops — fruits, vegetables and nuts — are well-positioned to meet this rising demand. Dongoski says that globally even markets that haven’t traditionally embraced items like berries are developing an appetite for them, creating new opportunities for growers and exporters.

As far as how millennials and Gen Z define “healthy,” Rob emphasizes personalization.

“They’ll define it differently depending on the category,” he explains. “For some, healthy means fresh. For others, it means fewer ingredients or less processing. A cleaner potato chip, for instance, might appeal more to a millennial or Gen Z consumer than to a boomer.”

This commitment comes with financial trade-offs. Younger consumers are willing to cut back on housing and transportation expenses to make room for healthful food in their budgets. Dongoski pointed out that fewer young adults are getting driver’s licenses at 16, reflecting less emphasis on car ownership and more reliance on urban transit or ridesharing.

“But food is not one that Gen Zs and millennials will want to cut right out of the gate,” he says.

For retailers and producers, the message is clear: Healthy, fresh and clean-label products aren’t just a trend; they’re a non-negotiable priority for the next generation of shoppers.

Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 22:17:17 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

A big-picture look at small-time assignments for produce managers

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 18:19:17 GMT

“You gotta go where they tell you.”

That’s all the advice I recall getting from my store manager upon being assigned to my first produce manager position. If you want the job, management tells you where and when.

I knew I was fortunate as part of a group of candidates considered for the opportunity. I knew if someone like me turned an offer down, there may not be a second chance.

It’s sort of like the NFL draft. When a player gets the call, they also go where the job is and are generally happy just to have been selected. That’s when the work really begins — when a steady job is far from guaranteed.

Just like in the produce industry.

And most newly promoted produce managers get assigned to a small-to-medium-sized location. What? You don’t start at the top? At the chain’s flagship location that has all the latest — everything? The latest fixtures, the highest volume, the most experienced crew?

Not a chance, bub.

A new produce manager generally goes to the dregs of the chain: a lower-volume store in (sometimes) a less-than-desirable neighborhood. Like the younger sibling in a big family, you inherit the clunker vehicle, if you will.

Your challenge? Fix up the store and get it looking good and operating as well as possible.

Here are a few thoughts to carry with you.

You will have to wear all the hats: At least be prepared for this. At a lower-volume store, you may serve as the opening clerk as well as the manager. Oftentimes you will have to work late. I’ve seen stores that have maybe two eight-hour shifts and a four-hour part-time closer in a day. When someone calls in sick, you are likely working the “B” shift that day — that is, you “be” there in the morning, and you “be” there to close shop.

You’ll have a smaller crew: Many stores only staff a produce manager, one or two full-time employees and the same number of part-timers. Lower volume means more salary constraints. Your challenge is to coach, train, emphasize the team concept and get the most out of the few people you oversee.

Count on covering other departments of the store: This one is tough, but it’s the hard truth. I’ve seen lower-volume produce managers who are compelled by the store manager to help in what they refer to as a “total-store mentality,” meaning you may have to sometimes unload other departments’ deliveries, cover for a break in the bakery or jump in the checkstand during a rush. Just keep working hard, and keep a stiff upper lip. This won’t last forever.

Your schedule will be a challenge: As Forrest Gump said, “Sometimes, I guess there just aren’t enough rocks.” Same goes for the schedule. Sometimes there just aren’t enough hours available. Get acquainted with neighboring store produce managers so that when you (or they) need extra bodies, that’s an option. Another one is to train someone in another department in your store to help cover produce schedule gaps.

Your challenge is to meet your goals and make a statement: Take the experience you’ve learned to this point and do all you can to drive sales, build a respectable gross profit and minimize shrink. At every chance, build prominent (or prominent-looking) displays to show off your marketing skills. Take advantage of every opportunity to make your produce department shine, just like the big stores.

Ultimately, your goal is to move to a higher-volume store: Stay in constant touch with your produce management team, as well as the district manager and produce director. Keep them posted on your results, work hard to maintain a positive attitude, and at every point, let them know you’re ready for the next step: the store with more challenges, the bigger the crew, the higher volume.

Keep in mind: A higher-volume store is easier to manage, but you also need experience to handle this step, just like steering a bigger ship — but you must pay the dues; you must show that you’ve managed the smaller vessel through rough seas and that you’re ready to progress in your produce journey. Wherever that may lead.

“Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with much …” — Luke 16:10

Armand Lobato works for the Idaho Potato Commission. His 40 years of experience in the produce business span a range of foodservice and retail positions.

Related: More insight from Armand Lobato

Packer Insight — Chef'd and Other Meal Kits at Retail

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:46:08 GMT

Produce Retailer editor Pamela Riemenschneider and staff writer Ashley Nickle discuss the revamped meal kits from Chef’d and other products now in stores -- and the all-important questions of where to merchandise them.

MORE: Shelf life improvement sparks rapid retail growth for Chef’d

MORE: Pamela’s Kitchen: Chef’d Meal Kits

Freight Rates Skyrocket

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:27:49 GMT

Transportation woes continue to haunt Northeast shippers as trucks remain hard to come by and freight rates skyrocket because of rising fuel costs and a scarcity of drivers.

“Trucks are at a premium right now,” said Tracie Levin, controller at M. Levin and Co. , in Philadelphia.

“It’s a major hindrance for our industry and anyone else that uses trucking, which is basically every industry out there,” she said.

Shippers can’t even buy trucks.

“We’ve been on wait lists to get more trucks, trailer and tractors,” she said. “You just cannot get those things these days.”

But Levin is optimistic that things will turn around. She said some relief is already in evidence.

“We’re slowly able to get things again in a semi timely manner,” she said.

East Coast shippers have been dealing with transportation issues, but there are trucks available, said Tom Beaver, director of sales and marketing for Sunny Valley International Inc. , in Glassboro, N.J.

“Obviously, the cost of brokering a truck, especially for our (less-than-load) business, has increased considerably, but the same is true for all of our competitors,” he said. “We’re adjusting to this ‘new normal,’ but the important thing is that we can get fruit loaded and out to our customers on time and in full.”

Transportation challenges are more prevalent during the winter than they are during the spring and summer for Vineland, N.J.-based The Freshwave Fruit & Produce and its growing operation, Consalo Family Farms , said Chelsea Consalo, executive vice president.

That’s because the company has more local deals during the warmer months.

During the winter, the firm must bring in products from outside growing areas, such as Mexico, and transport fruits and vegetables imported from offshore growing regions, such as Chile, from U.S. ports.

“We have more trucks on the road (in winter),” she said.

Transportation costs are a major concern.

“We’re managing to get the trucks,” Consalo said. “It is just more expensive.”

(Farm Journal)

The Freshwave has added Nick Crisafulli, who recently completed an internship at Americold Logistics LLC, to its logistics staff to help arrange transportation.

Vineland-based Flaim Farms Inc . has its own fleet of trucks for local deliveries, said president Ryan Flaim.

But trying to find trucks for destinations that are farther out is challenging.

The company has good relationships with trucking firms, but rates are much higher than they have been in the past, Flaim said.

Finding transportation isn’t a problem, as long as you’re willing to pay exorbitant fees, said Joel Fierman, president of New York-based Joseph Fierman and Sons Inc .

“It’s really a pity when your cost for transportation pretty much is as high as your cost for goods,” he said.

He blamed the price spike on high fuel costs and a scarcity of drivers.

“It’s a terrible, terrible thing that this country is experiencing right now,” he said.

An added problem during the Christmas season was that many trucks were sidetracked delivering Christmas trees.

“It’s fast, easy money,” he said.

Filindo Colace, vice president of operations for Philadelphia-based Ryeco LLC , attributes the skyrocketing inflation rate the industry has experienced to high freight costs.

“Freight has been a premium for quite some time,” he said.

While seed prices and other costs have also gone up, he said high freight rates are 90% of the cause of inflation.

“Nothing in the industry has gone up at the same rate as freight has,” Colace said.

But he remains optimistic.

“We think the country is moving on,” he said. “We’re going to be as back-to-business as usual as possible in the first quarter of next year.”

He expected buying patterns to return to where they were in 2019.

“We hope the workforce returns to those levels, as well,” he said.

“If that’s the case, it will be our expectation that freight rates will start to lower because there are more truck drivers coming back into the workforce.”

Related articles:

Rising freight rates pose challenge

Distributors cope with rising freight costs

Your Fourth of July Picnic Could be 11% More Expensive

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:26:31 GMT

The grill is going to burn a bit hotter this year with overall protein prices up 12 to 15%. That according to the Wells Fargo July Fourth Food Inflation Report, which analyzed popular food categories for the American holiday and showed an overall 11% increase in food costs.

Karol Flynn, an industry advisor with Wells Fargo Food and Agribusiness, says if consumers want to stick to traditional burgers and hot dogs, look for frozen options, which may be lower cost than fresh meats. Also, comparatively, pork remains a value. Flynn gives the example of pork chops, which have only seen an average retail price increase of 3.1%.

Hot dog prices have increased 12%--with poultry based products increasing even more.

Additionally, chicken wing retail prices are up 34% and chicken breasts retail prices are up 24%.
For folks looking to go outside the box on their grill, Flynn offers shrimp as an option.

“There’s a unique situation with shrimp because demand was cut way back during COVID and the restaurant slow down. Also, most shrimp is imported, and with these currency valuation changes, it favors some imports,” she says.

Bread products and buns have also seen increased retail prices up 10% this year. Flynn notes this is a ripple effect from the war in Ukraine and its effect on the global wheat market.

The report’s analysis shows hosting a party of ten for the fourth of July holiday could cost 11% more in 2022 than it would have last year.

Other report highlights:

Retail produce is up 7% year-over-year
- Tomatoes are only up 1%
- Avocados are up 24%, but California production should be increasing overall supply in the near-term
- Lemons are up 9%
Ice cream is up 6%
Sherbet, gelato and popsicles are down 4.5%
Soda is up 13%
Beer is up 25%

Hear the full interview with Flynn from AgriTalk: