MARKETS

USDA's Rollins: 'Let's Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners' For Trade

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:50:09 GMT

On Brooke Rollins’ first full week on the job as Secretary of Agriculture, she addressed the 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders in Kansas City for the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

High on Rollins’ list of priorities was the topic of trade and President Donald Trump’s vision for U.S. agriculture moving forward.

While Rollins did not shy away from addressing the administration’s decision to implement trade tariffs, noting “farmer and rancher concerns are legitimate,” she focused on what she sees as her role ahead.

“My job is to ensure that as President Trump and our trade representatives are making their decisions that I am in the room and advocating on behalf of our people, on behalf of all of you,” she told Top Producer Summit attendees.

One of her key objectives, she says, is to find and expand market access for U.S. agricultural products domestically and abroad.

“Let’s go barnstorm the world, and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” she says.

Rollins says her goals for trade are a reflection of Trump’s vision and his determination to make agriculture part of the “golden age” he sees ahead for the U.S.

Trump is the consummate deal maker, Rollins notes, able to side-step bureaucracy and red tape in the process to work with world leaders.

“I don’t know that in the last 250 years, we’ve had anyone in office like President Trump,” she says. “He is a very unusual, remarkable and fearless man, and he wants to make a deal, and in the best way, and put America first.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke to a crowd of 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders at the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

(Jim Barcus)

Making Headway With Trade
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, who moderated the conversation with Rollins, highlighted Trump’s work to build trade during his first term.

“He redid USMCA, and now that’s our largest ag partnership, with Mexico and Canada,” Marshall says. “He gave us South Korea and Japan, which has been so important to Kansas and our cattle industry, as well as trade 1.0 with China.”

Marshall then mentioned the headway he believes Trump and team have made with India.

“I see India replacing China as our major trade partner, as well that China is growing right now,” Marshall says. “I think there’s huge opportunities in India.”

U.S. ethanol, cotton and tree nuts are three of the top agricultural exports to India, a country that has in the past impeded agricultural trade with tariffs and non-tariff barriers alike. Trump called out the barriers to trade following recent conversations with India’s Prime Minster Modi.

A joint statement after the Trump-Modi meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to lower tariffs on select U.S. products and increase market access to U.S. farm products, while seeking to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.

Rollins says the progress underway with India was just one step forward to address what she described as a trade crisis for the U.S.

“Our exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to be down $42 billion in the months to come. This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins says.

“We have a tremendous amount of work to do,” she adds. “But my promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years, I will do everything within my power with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work to ensure that we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but that we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

Secretary Rollins joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion about trade policy and tariffs; avian flu; and disaster and economic aid.

Your next read: Senate Overwhelmingly Confirms Brooke Rollins as 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

Momentum Continues for U.S. Beef Exports; Record Value to Mexico Fuels Strong Month for Pork

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 18:47:15 GMT

Exports of U.S. beef continued to build momentum in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports were also well above year-ago levels in July, led by a value record for shipments to Mexico.

Key Asian markets and Mexico fuel strong month for beef exports

July beef exports totaled 110,419 metric tons (mt), up 7% from a year ago and the second largest of 2024. Export value climbed 12% to $910.9 million, also the second highest this year. July growth was fueled primarily by strengthening demand in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and the Middle East and ASEAN regions.

For January through July, beef export value increased 6% from a year ago to $6.13 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (754,152 mt).

“It is very gratifying to see demand for U.S. beef trending upward in Asian markets, with Japan and Taiwan leading the way and an outstanding showing in the ASEAN region,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “U.S. beef has weathered severe headwinds in Asia and especially in Japan, but the outlook for the remainder of the year is encouraging. July was also another impressive month for Mexico, which continues to display excellent demand for an expanding range of U.S. beef cuts and variety meats.”

Record value for Mexico headlines robust month for pork exports

Pork exports reached 241,210 mt in July, up 10% from a year ago. Export value jumped 13% to $710.5 million, fueled in part by a record $244.5 million for leading market Mexico. July exports also trended substantially higher year-over-year in most Latin American markets and in South Korea.

Through the first seven months of 2024, pork exports were 4% above last year at 1.76 million mt. Export value was just under $5 billion – up 6% from a year ago, when pork exports set an annual value record of $8.16 billion.

“Mexico was definitely the pacesetter for U.S. pork again in July, but demand was also outstanding in Central America, Colombia and the Caribbean,” Halstrom said. “Pork exports to Korea also continued to perform well in what is shaping up to be a record year.”

A detailed summary of the January-July export results for U.S. beef, pork and lamb, including market-specific highlights, is available from the USMEF website.

Your PreHarvest Marketing Checklist

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 00:12:08 GMT

As harvest nears, it’s time to revisit, update and tweak your grain marketing plan. “Most of your production costs are well-known at this point, and you should have a good estimate of expected yields,” says Richard Jelinek, vice president global education at INTL FCStone Financial. Plug those production numbers into your preplanting marketing plan. Spend the next few weeks considering a variety of marketing tools that fit today’s challenges, and employ these marketing strategies.

1. MAKE A SMART STORAGE PLAN.

Determine your “must-move” bushels that are beyond your on-farm storage capabilities, says Carrie Johnson, product line leader for Cargill Ag Marketing Services. Visit with your buyers, so they have an idea of what to expect from you.

Know your post-harvest sales tools. “If you are expecting prices to rally after harvest, storage shouldn’t be the only consideration,” says INTL FCStone Financial’s Jelinek.

Estimate all of your costs of carrying grain. Then you can determine if you should store grain or use a marketing tool. “If you know you’ll need some cash flow this fall, you may want to consider selling the necessary amount of grain and then buy call options,” Jelinek says. “This alternative provides you with a gain should the market rally, just like storage, without the hassle and costs associated with storing that crop.”

For example, you sell 10,000 bu. of corn at $3.80 to your elevator at harvest, while at the same time buying a $4 March Corn Call option for 10,000 bu. for a premium of 15¢ per bushel. This locks in a floor price of $3.65 ($3.80 - 15¢ call premium). You capture any price increase above $4. If prices don’t top $4, your call will only cost the 15¢ premium, which was already paid and built into your floor price of $3.65.

2. MUFFLE THE DAILY MARKET NOISE.

With a 24/7 news cycle, grain market chatter can fill every minute of your day. Reduce some of that clutter and step away from the daily market swings, Johnson coaches.

“There’s a fine line between being aware and educated versus obsessed with it,” she says. Don’t be paralyzed by information overload. Instead, always go back to your profit margins and marketing goals.

3. ANALYZE YOUR LOCAL BASIS.

“In the grain world, the most important thing is basis, basis, basis,” Jelinek says. “You need to stay on top of how basis is reacting in your local area.”

Collect basis for your delivery locations at least once a week to create a historical record to see how current basis is behaving compared to normal levels, he says. Watch for patterns to indicate marketing opportunities.

4. KNOW YOUR RISK TOLERANCE.

“All the different strategies have different risk-reward profiles,” Johnson says. “You need to know your willingness and ability to take on risk.”

Sleepless nights because a strategy might not be profitable is a big price to pay. “You don’t want to get into a strategy you don’t fully understand,” she advises.

Your ability to take risk is mostly inhibited by your cash flow, as some marketing tools have expensive fees. Work with an advisor who can help you identify the best options for your farm.

5. MENTALLY PREPARE FOR MARKETING MISSTEPS.

Your farming team and partners will question your marketing decisions. No matter what, you will not make perfect moves every time, says Katie Hancock, a marketing consultant with Brock & Associates and Kentucky producer.

“Marketers have to be decisive and thick-skinned,” she says. “If you make peace with imperfection, you will be able to make tough choices. Without this acceptance, emotions will interfere. In my opinion, the worst decision is not making one.”

Find current market quotes, news and weekly audio analysis at AgWeb.com/markets

“Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading commodity interests can be substantial.”

Protein Focus Shifts to Consumption as Grilling Season Kicks Off

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:25:39 GMT

Hayden Farms, located outside of Owensboro, Ky., is opening its doors, putting in the country’s first poultry house viewing room last year. The glass windows help pull back the curtains on how chickens are actually raised.

“Our whole goal behind this was education,” said Danielle Hayden, one of the owner/operator of Hayden Farms. “It was important for us to give a glass walls effect to our farm, and say ‘hey, we have nothing to hide, come on in, see this, and we’re going to talk about it with you.’”

From education, to pushing production, diversity drives their Kentucky operation.

“Since we do beef and broiler chickens, we kind of have that benefit in our poultry market stays the same, so it’s allowed us to roll with the tides of the beef side of our operation,” she said.

Haydens put a focus on poultry last year, building four new barns. In 2019, their focus is turning to beefing up the cattle side of their operation, with new fencing, improving grazing conditions, etc.

For cattle producers in the Midwest, many are still recovering from a rocky winter.

“Calving was really rough,” said Alex Nuelle, a cattle producer in Lafayette County, Mo. “It made you not even want to own heifers.”

The Nuelles faced historic losses from such a brutal winter, as calving season proved to be one for the record books.

“I think we lost probably 40 to 45 calves out of 200 heifers,” he said. “It wasn’t a very good, profitable winter.”

Profits aren’t only pinched by calve losses, but also market prices waning for the cattle they sell, forcing this young producer to weigh other options.

“I’m hoping to go elsewhere besides farming,” he said. “I’m pushing the bail wrapper, we got a mobile seed treater, start selling more seed,” he said.

Not every producer is looking to expand, but nationally, protein supplies are growing.

“We’re looking at increased production on the total protein with about a 2% increase in in beef production and nearly a 4% increase in pork production,” said John Nalivka, owner of Sterling Marketing Group who puts out the Sterling Profit Tracker each week.

Nalivka said Sterling Marketing projects protein consumption per capita to hit 221 pounds this year, which is slightly higher than last year, and just misses the record of 221.9 pounds hit in 2004.

“We’re going into what’s seasonally the strongest demand part of the year, so we go into the grilling season this summer, but beef demand has been very, very good,” he said.

As questions surround if beef demand can hold, pork production is also on the rise.

“This will be our fifth consecutive year of record pork production, and this year pork production in the U.S. will actually exceed beef production,” he said.

Much of the consumption hinges on the need for exports. Major companies like Tyson and McDonald’s are already warning consumers meat prices could climb , as African Swine Fever (ASF) continues to claim China’s hog herd.

“They’re already buying an extraordinary large amount of beef from Australia and New Zealand,” said Nalivka. “That’s why we’re not seeing beef imports from Australia come in here.”

While ASF remains a big question mark, domestic diets are also changing, with more consumers demanding protein.

“What’s really nice to see is that people are not so tied into their life of, low fat, fat free, sugar free, and they’re really thinking about the quality of the foods that they’re eating and getting better quality fats and better-quality proteins,” said Leah McGrath, a registered dietician.

McGrath said much of those purchasing decisions aren’t just driven by health results, but also taste. The generational change of eating habits is a trend Hayden is also seeing.

“Now, my generation, who are becoming the moms, we do yoga and we eat steak, because we want that high protein, we’re all these trendy diets that are healthy fats, which is a lot more beef,” said Hayden.

The trend is serving up opportunity for protein producers across the country, as the unofficial kickoff to grilling season is now underway.

Related Stories:

Protein Consumption to Soar, Pork Prices Could Soon Increase

U.S. Farm Report Special: The Push for Protein

December Breeches 50-Day Moving Average. It’s Happened Before.

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:23:14 GMT

Bill Biedermann , Senior Vice President at Allendale, Inc.

Corn
Corn Condition: NASS estimates the July 13 conditions at 64% at “good” or “excellent” vs. last week’s 62% and year earlier levels of 64%, and a five-year average of 66%. Allendale suggest crop conditions to improve throughout most of this week, based on private and public weather forecast calling for beneficial weather and an absence of any extreme heat during pollination. Cumulative pollination as of July 13 is estimated at 13% vs. 50% a year earlier and a five-year average of 36%. The lag in the reproductive phase suggests the majority of this year’s crop to pollinate in the second half of July and places the 2008 crop to pollinate during the hottest portion of the year. Look for the trade to focus on extended weather forecast for any signs of building heat. Allendale views Monday release as neutral for December corn futures.

Corn Fundamentals: Bearish to corn is beneficial weather for the major Midwest for at least this next week. Continued improving crop conditions headed into next Monday’s report are expected. Also bearish to corn is the increasing substitution of feedwheat vs. corn. International buyers not only consider the feed values economics but are also reducing import expenses by securing supplies closer to home base. Bullish to corn is 2008/09 projected end stocks to use to be the second tightest, dating back to 1980 for the U.S. and the tightest world corn stocks to use at 11.9%, dating back to 1980. Also bullish to corn is the lag in growth progress, potentially placing this year’s crop at risk by pollinating during the hottest week of the year.

Technically: December corn futures closed below the 50-day Moving Average (MA) on Monday. This has happened before with interesting results. On March 20, December futures closed below the 50-day MA, after holding a solid uptrend. One day later December corn futures closed above the 50-day MA and held until May 29. Once again, one day later, December corn futures closed back above the 50-day MA and held until July 14.

Old Crop Marketing: 6140 cash corn requires 4¢/bu. per month to store on farm. The present futures and cash market continues to offer adequate carry month to month. The present spread between September and December futures is offering 6¢/bu. per month and will cover your cost to carry if hedged in the December futures. Allendale has 30% of its 2007 production not priced to the cash market and will alert when to begin moving to the cash markets.

Trade Posture: Fundamentally, Allendale remains bullish to corn on tight stocks to use. Allendale respects improving crop conditions, however crops conditions at the present stage of growth is not likely a true indicator of impending yield. Technically, Allendale is bearish. Allendale is a willing buyer of December corn futures just above the recent double top of 7150.

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Soybeans
Soybean Condition: NASS estimates the July 13 “good” to “excellent” conditions at 59% vs. last weeks 59%, year earlier levels of 62% and a five-year average of 62%. Allendale views Monday’s releases as neutral/bullish to November soybean futures.

Soybeans Fundamentals: Bullish to soybean futures is the ongoing Argentina farm strike. A key vote by the Argentina Senate was scheduled for yesterday. The strike has been beneficial for greater than typical weekly export sales of U.S. soybeans. Also bullish to soybeans is the lag in crop maturity and may place soybean pod fill later in the month of August. Precipitation amounts more towards the mid and mid to late August are likely to be key. Bearish to spot month soybeans is a weaker than anticipated NOPA soybean crush report released Monday morning and perceived weekly soybean export inspections.

Soybean Spread: Declining old crop stocks, as a result of the ongoing Argentina farm strike, has soybean futures inverted. The August/November spread is presently at 23.4¢ premium. The August spread has technical based support at 10¢ and immediate resistance at 30¢. It was nearly one year ago when the spread was trading a very similar pattern to present day. A breakout above 30¢ premium, the August in July of 2007 allowed the spread to immediately race to 49 to 55¢.

Old Crop Marketing: $15.52 cash soybeans requires 9.3¢ of carry per month. If not hedged, make certain your local cash markets are offering you sufficient carry. The present August/September futures spread is at 13.6¢ inverse, suggesting it costs more to store the beans than to carry them.

Trade Posture: Allendale remains bullish to soybeans as ending stocks are estimated at 140 million bushels and has a projected end stocks to use of 4.7% vs. old crop stocks to use of a record low 4.1%. Allendale is aware of the potential bearish ramifications of an end to the Argentina farm strike and potential CFTC action on speculation but until those events happen, further rationing will be required.

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Wheat
Spring Wheat Conditions: USDA estimates spring wheat at: 61% “good” or “excellent,” compared to 69% for the previous week and 76% in 2007. Allendale views this spring wheat crop condition report as bullish to September MGEX futures.

Winter Wheat Harvest: The 18 states are estimated to have 62% of the 2008 winter wheat crop harvested vs. 52% a week earlier, 67% a year earlier and 70% for its five-year average. The wheat trade was well aware of the Southern Plain’s frequent rains that created harvest delays.

Wheat: Bearish to wheat futures is a large world wheat crop expected to increase world stocks by as much as 17 million tonnes over year-ago levels. However, projected world wheat stocks to use are estimated to be 17.3%, second lowest only to 2007/08 levels. Bullish to wheat is renewed export demand for milling purposes as news surfaces that Iraq and the U.S. are very close to signing a deal for 300,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat and that Egypt is once again in the world market for wheat. Australia is estimated between 22-24 mmmt versus the April estimate of 25 million tonnes.

Wheat Crop Marketing: Allendale recently rolled its July hedges directly to the December to cover the cost of carry and added the remaining balance to its merchandizing ledger. We see no reason to hedge new crop above the 65% level we have on for now.

Cash Peak: Dating back to 2000, odds favor a national cash wheat peak for the month of December. Of the most recent eight years, dating back to the year 2000, the national cash peaked has hit in December 50% of the time, with various other months such as October, November, April and May.

Trade Posture: Technicals have turned from neutral.

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Hogs
Lean Hogs: Two pieces of interesting fundamental information were released in the past few days.

Due to COOL (Country of Origin Labeling), U.S. packers and U.S. hog finishers do not want to use Canadian hogs. Last week’s imports of Canadian hogs were down 46% of last year’s level. In the two weeks before, they were down 16% and down 23% respectively. Bottom line is fewer Canadian hogs mean packers are bidding just a little more for U.S. hogs. This keeps us neutral to bullish on cash hogs and August lean hog futures. It also keeps us liking the August/October spread.
U.S. pork exports in May were up 98% over May 2007. In the two previous months they were up 37% and 96% respectively. This is no surprise. Pork exports will be great all summer. The question is what happens to Chinese buys after the Olympics in August. Our downside target for December is $65. We remain 100% hedged through the end of the year and are happy with that position. We are not being aggressive on hedging 2009 contracts as liquidation going on now is a big variable. Now that corn has dropped $1 in the past few days is sow slaughter still big?

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Cattle
Live Cattle: We noted that crude oil was our main focus for cattle pricing from March through June. Corn prices peaked, and concerns about the economy increased, in late June. We are now going back to traditional supply and demand fundamentals in our live cattle pricing. Will placements fall as much as expected with December corn at $6.80 as it would have at almost $8? That is a bearish factor. We are also noting concerns about the economy are still here, if not getting worse. From January through June nonfarm payrolls fell from 62,000 to 88,000 head. This is not the 100,000 head losses economists start to get concerned about. However, will U.S. consumers be eager to buy beef at x% higher than last year when they are concerned about the economy? Let’s be realistic here. CME futures were implying something like a 20% increase over last year. Higher prices are due, as we have noted before, but futures have been fundamentally overvalued. We started hedges on the October and December today at 25% of expected marketings.

Bill Biederman is Senior Vice President at Allendale, Inc. You can email him at bbiedermann@allendale-inc.com .

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This article appeared in the July 17 issue of Top Producer’s Moneywise eNewsletter. To sign up for a free subscription, click here.

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2008

Little Market Reaction to H1N1 Findings

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:23:14 GMT

Greg Vincent , Top Producer Editor

The initial market reaction to the USDA’s announcement that the H1N1 flu virus was found in Minnesota hogs appears to be minimal to nill. This is perhaps proof positive that the industry’s educational efforts to educate consumers about the realities of H1N1 are working, says John Lawrence, Iowa State University Extension Economist. He says to watch retailer orders over the next few days to fully judge the impact, but for now, the situation appears to be well under control.

Listen in:

For More Information
USDA Confirms H1N1 Flu Virus in Minnesota Hog

You can e-mail Greg Vincent at gvincent@farmjournal.com .

Encouraging News in the Hogs and Pigs Report

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:23:14 GMT

Sara Schafer , Top Producer Business & Crops Online Editor

Hog producers have been losing money since October, says Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale, Inc. Ron Plain, University of Missouri extension economist, add the hog market was beat up real bad during June.

Yet, the two say there is encouraging news in USDA’s June 26 Hogs and Pigs report. Listen to the two expert’s commentary on the report.

Ron Plain, University of Missouri extension economist

Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale, Inc.

For More Information
U.S. Hog Inventory down 2 Percent

You can e-mail Sara Schafer at sschafer@farmjournal.com .

Time for Breakfast: Egg and Bacon Prices Go Opposite Ways

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:00:39 GMT

You can’t put a single price on the American breakfast—at least, not for any length of time. The cost of foods commonly eaten at breakfast fluctuate independent of one another. The last year has seen egg prices jump and bacon prices crash, while cereal remains almost dead-even.

That different foods will be affected by varying market forces isn’t surprising, but ongoing shifts in the cost of breakfast foods have been significant enough to affect how people eat. Cheap bacon, for instance, is suddenly found in all sort of counterintuitive places—even atop veggie burgers.

To track the changing prices paid by consumers for five staples at the breakfast table— eggs, bacon, cereal, bananas, and coffee—we looked at the components of the Consumer Price Index from April 2014 to March 2015. Egg prices jumped more than 5 percent, the biggest gain among the five foods, even as the broader index barely budged. At the same time, bacon prices collapsed.

Some of the price swings in breakfast’s underlying commodities have been more severe than consumers might be able to detect on a trip to the grocery store. The spot price of pork bellies, used to make bacon, fell 54 percent in the 12 months prior to March 31, even though consumers are paying just 7 percent less for the end product, based on CPI data. That’s partly because food manufactures take measure to offset volatility and don’t pass all cost savings or increases on to consumers.

Still, anyone budgeting for a morning meal will have seen things get strange in the past year. Here’s a look at what’s changed—and why.Eggs

The American embrace of a higher-protein diet has helped drive egg prices higher. Over the past five years the price of eggs climbed by a third—and that was before an outbreak of avian flu started cutting into the nation’s egg supply.

Approximately 40 million birds have been affected since the disease was first detected in December, according to the Department of Agriculture. Earlier this month the USDA lowered its forecast for egg production and now projects an annual decline for the first time since 2008. Goldman Sachs says consumers may spend as much as an additional $8 billion on eggs this year because of the disease.

Companies have already responded. Food manufacturer Post Holdings has warned investors that the bird flu will weigh on its earnings in fiscal 2015. At least one giant distributor, Sysco, is in talks with its customers about switching their menus to cope with costlier eggs. If other companies follow, that could mean a noticeable drop-off in egg items served at restaurants.

Compounding the problem is a new California law that has made egg farming more expensive. The law requires larger cages for hens; even farmers from outside the state who wish to send their eggs to California must abide by the rules. Some farmers have pared hen flocks to make room for larger accommodations, and some outside the state have halted shipments to California. Egg prices in California have surged.Bacon

Retail bacon prices hit a record high last summer, hovering for months above $6 per pound. Behind the pricey pork was new demand, coupled with a sudden drop in supply caused by a porcine epidemic diarrhea virus that killed more than 7 million hogs. But the high price didn’t last long. The hog population rapidly rebounded in the past year, prices dropped dramatically, and bacon suppliers rejoiced. Ohio-based Sugar Creek Packing told Bloomberg News that it is working seven days a week to fill orders and now projects a 15 percent jump in sales this year.Cereal and Bananas

Breakfast cereal prices have been more or less flat for the last year, as measured by CPI. It’s difficult to raise prices when fewer people are buying. The high-protein trend hasn’t helped, and gluten-free diets have been a big problem for cereal makers. Kellogg’s revenue from its U.S. morning foods and Kashi division has been declining since 2011, contributing to the company’s having missed overall sales estimates in seven of the last nine quarters. General Mills’ cereal division has held up better after changing the ingredients in some of its products.

Banana prices have held fairly steady over the last year. The most commonly eaten fruit in the U.S. enjoys its preeminence, in part, because it remains so cheap. Pound for pound—and the average American eats more than 10 lbs of bananas per year—the yellow fruit costs less than half the price of apples and oranges. With demand holding steady, any significant change in price would probably have to come from either a new market efficiency that could be passed on to consumers or some disruption to the supply chain. Really bad weather could do this, as could climate change.Coffee

The consumer price of coffee jumped about 4 percent over the 12 months ending in March, according to the CPI, but a steep drop in futures over the last three months suggests things are on their way back down again. Volcafe, the coffee division of the Swiss commodities trading firm ED&F Man, raised production forecasts earlier this month and now predicts global demand will exceed supply in the 2015-2016 season. Futures fell again after that report. Rising production will take some price pressure off coffee, although with more Americans switching to espresso-based drinks, the decline could be offset for many consumers by price changes in other ingredients.