Markets Today

Why Can't Soybeans Bottom With China Purchases? Are They Buying Corn?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:39:25 GMT

Corn and wheat ended higher Tuesday with soybeans lower. Livestock futures saw a down day in cattle but higher in hogs.

Corn Rallies on China Buying?
Corn futures were up for a second day after seeing technical buying and with some talk of China buying corn out of the Pacific Northwest. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies. However, he is not seeing evidence of those purchases and doubts China needs corn. “I don’t know why China would buy U.S. corn. It wasn’t part of the agreement, which is yet to be signed. So unless it was politically motivated, I would think China would want to go to Brazil. They have this new relationship with Brazil. When it comes to their corn, I think they want to protect their relationships with Brazil,” he says.

He admits port values in the PNW did kind of spike and so did basis. However, he doesn’t think that necessarily means China. “It could be one of our normal customers, like Japan, for example,” he says.

Corn Sees Short Covering
So Seifried thinks the bounce was technically inspired buying after the March contract bounced off the 100-day moving average support area on Wednesday. However, corn has been trading sideways between that support and overhead resistance up at the 200-day moving average. He says if corn could finally close above that level for more than a day, it could take out the $4.50 area and stage a bit of a breakout.

“We saved a breakdown below the neckline of what could potentially be a head and shoulders topping formation in corn. Now, if we were able to get up and over that 200-day moving average for the fourth time, close above it and then not break down the very next day like we have the previous three times. We could potentially break out to the upside and really negate this potential head and shoulders formation,” Seifried explains.

Corn Needs a Catalyst
However, corn will need a catalyst to get above that chart resistance because farmer selling picks up when corn gets to the top side of the trading range. The catalyst could come in the January WASDE if USDA would lower yield. It would take a sizable cut to get the bulls excited and get below 2 billion bu. carryout he says. “I do think if you cut two or three bushel an acre off of corn, we’ll get below a 2 billion bu. carryover, but I don’t know about significantly below 2 billion bushel because it will be offset by USDA lowering feed and residual,” he explains.

Wheat Follows Corn
Wheat futures got spillover support from the corn market but Seifried says soft red winter wheat also saw technical buying to relieve its oversold condition. “Chicago wheat hit new contract lows Tuesday and Wednesday so it was due for a correction,” he says. However, wheat will have a tough time rallying due to the big global production. “USDA has had to continue to raise the world production number. I think we’re, what, 30 MMT off of the original number they had a few months ago,” he states. China canceling two cargoes of white wheat from the U.S. was also bearish for the market. “Anytime China cancels anything, that really does not help the market psychology.”

Why Do Soybeans Continue Lower Despite China Purchases?
The soybean market continues to slide despite the confirmation of export sales and China soybean purchases. USDA reported another 4.2 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Thursday morning and adds to the string of recent purchases that have included China. Seifried says however, that business has not been enough to support the market because it’s half the soybean purchases China made last year.

“The problem is, is that I think the markets realized that 12 million metric tons probably isn’t enough to get us to the USDA full marketing year expectations for our exports, and that they’ll probably have to cut exports again if China doesn’t buy above and beyond that 12 million metric tons. And while the buying is good, the pace does not suggest necessarily that they’re going to outperform on that one,” he explains.

Seifried says South American weather is also favorable and soybean prices in Brazil are cheaper than the U.S. and so there’s no reason for China or any other countries to buy soybeans if it isn’t politically motivated.

Funds also got near record long in mid-November while the government was shut down and they are exiting those positions. “The analyst guesses were, were so far off they weren’t even half of what the funds actually accumulated as far as their long position. And the funds have just simply lost interest in the story. And so they’re getting out of that position,” he adds.

Soybeans Make New Lows for the Move
Soybean futures made new lows for the move on additional technical selling and fund liquidation. Seifried says the market confirmed the head and shoulders top, fell to fill the chart gap areas and then closed below that level which is bearish. Funds got near record long in soybeans in mid-November and then started to bail on those positions and take profits and they are still liquidating.

Profit Taking in Cattle
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day with the market consolidating after several attempts to take out chart resistance areas. Seifried says in live cattle the market has been capped by the 100-day moving average. So, cattle are at a pivotal point and need to fill gap areas on the chart to keep moving higher.

“I mean, the good news there is that both cattle and feeders did close well off their lows. So, you know, we didn’t completely fall apart after running into the one hundred day moving average, major moving average pretty much five days in a row. Not being able to to to break through it and break out to the upside and fill the gap above us. The market finally just gave in a bit.” he says.

Cash trade will also be a key. Thursday some light trade developed in the North at mostly $358 dressed, up $4, with a range of $355 to $363 and live sales prices at $228.

Lean Hogs Finish Higher
Lean hog futures were higher on short covering and fund buying after a lower day on Wednesday. Seifried says the hog market is also getting support from a possible seasonal bottom in cash and cutouts.

Hogs Ease After Big Rally, Cattle Hit Record Highs and Soybeans Gain After Trump/Xi Call

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 13:20:39 GMT

Hogs ended mostly lower on Thursday, with all-time highs in cattle and grains mostly higher as well.

Lean Hogs Consolidate Thursday After Recent Rally

Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says lean hogs ended mixed to lower on Thursday with August seeing some profit taking after making new highs for the move early in the session. August hogs have been on a big rally gaining nearly $7 in seven sessions.

The consolidation came despite a positive call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi earlier in the day and decent weekly pork exports at 36,400 MT, with a sale of 12,700 MT to China.

Hoogendoorn was at World Pork Expo and says there is optimism about the hog market with the recent rally which has been pushed by higher cash and cutouts.

The CME lean hog index is up another 82 cents to $97.57 as of June 4. Pork cutout firmed $1.50 to $108.12 on Thursday. Both are trading at their highest levels since August 2023.

Packers cut kills the last few weeks he says and cutouts responded moving above $107, but at the same time there’s not an excess supply of hogs.

The deferred lean hog contracts just made new contract highs with disease concerns in production areas like Iowa, mostly due to PEDV.

Hoogendoorn says these prices are offering some profitable levels for hog producers all the way down the futures board.

Cattle Futures Explode To All-Time Highs

Cattle futures made all time highs in both live and feeder cattle offerings.

Funds stepped back in to buy with the steep futures discount to more record cash cattle trade.

Cash broke in the South already Wednesday at $225 to $228, up $3 to $6 from last week and there were some trades at $230 in Kansas before the close on Thursday.

Later in the afternoon light cash cattle trade developed in Texas at $232, up $10 from last week’s weighted average.

Light trade was also reported in Nebraska with dressed sales at $380, up $13 from last week’s weighted averages. Live deals at $240, up $5.

Soybeans React to Positive Trump/Xi Call

Soybeans saw gains Thursday, supported by positive news that Trump and Xi’s conversation went well.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and President Xi had a “very good” phone call and “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Next steps involve a meeting between the countries respective teams with Secretary of the Treasury Bessent leading the U.S. team.

The market also saw additional fund and technical buying but was stopped short running into resistance with several moving averages layered overhead on the charts.

Corn Bounces After July Hits New Lows

Corn was higher as well with spillover from higher soybeans and still adding some weather premium.

However, July made a new low for the move and hit a level not seen since October of 2024, before bouncing.

Bear spreading continued to be a feature in the corn market with December gaining on July.

Despite a tight 1.4 billion bu. carryover, Hoogendoorn says the market is telling farmers there is no concern about running out of corn.

He says some of that pressure is coming from the big crop and much lower corn prices in South America.

Why Did the Ag Markets Fade China Trade Talk News?

Thu, 08 May 2025 15:02:00 GMT

Grain and livestock futures closed mostly lower on Friday.

It was a disappointing close considering the news that top trade officials from the U.S. and China were meeting in Geneva this weekend to de-escalate the trade war.

Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the markets faded the news as the realization set in that no major breakthroughs in the trade talks are expected and a long term trade deal with China could take quite some time.

President Donald Trump also said Wednesday he’s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations with Beijing on trade.

Weather was also a headwind for the corn and soybean markets with fast planting pace and more rain in the forecast for dry areas of the hard red winter wheat belt.

The market is also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer has confirmed they will start to consider the impact of tariffs in the new crop balance sheets.

“That could make these early estimates look a bit too friendly,” says Chatterton.

July corn made new lows for the move hitting chart resistance, failing and then testing triple bottom support on the charts at $4.51.

“It was a big outside day lower,” explains Chatterton, “And so tomorrow’s action will be important to see if there is further technical breakdown.”

Wheat has been an anchor for the corn market with improving crop conditions tied to recent rain.

Lower prices relative to corn are pushing wheat into the feed ration.

The higher dollar and lower crude oil markets were also bearish for the grain complex.

The FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected.

However, Chatterton says Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market was solid and inflation was still somewhat elevated, but the uncertainty in the economic outlook moving forward tied to tariffs.

Cattle futures saw a correction off of Tuesday’s new contract highs, despite higher cash trade.

So far business in the South, has ranged from $218 to $220, steady to $2 higher, with $219 paid on Wednesday.

So is this divergence a concern?

Chatterton calls it a healthy correction in a bull market that continues to be supported by cash and consumer demand with Choice beef values at two year highs.

Lean hogs also had a disappointing day, also fading at least slight progress on trade with China.

Tariff Delay Rallies Ag and Outside Markets, Trumps China Trade War

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 20:36:40 GMT

Grain, livestock and especially outside markets soared on Wednesday.

Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.

A 10% universal tariff is still in place but over 75 countries have reached out to avert tariffs and were rewarded.

It was an unprecedented day in the stock market which reversed and surged in reaction.

“Its a smart move by the Trump Administration because it buys them time to negotiate deals with these 75 countries and the markets have time to absorb that news and calm down,” he explains.

Suderman says this also puts to rest the talk of global recession, which had tanked the stock market, the energy sector and even cattle futures.

“I think the market took it as a positive step forward. Now it’s up to the Trump administration to actually come through and turn those negotiations into something positive, meaning lower tariffs for everybody. And if they can do that, we can actually result to see greater global economic growth and greater demand for commodities,” he adds.

The grain and livestock futures also posted a relief rally despite the escalation of the trade war with China.

China announced retaliatory tariffs of 50% which drew a negative response from President Trump as he slapped another 125% tariff on Beijing.

Suderman says, “Ultimately containing China is one of Trump’s top goals and since they
led the way in retaliation, that’s another reason he said that if any country retaliates, we will keep adding to it. Since that’s what they’ve done, he doesn’t want to give any signal of rewarding that type of behavior,”

He says it took Trump three years to get a trade deal out of China in his first term and he is trying to get a quicker response this time around.

“With a weaker economy, he felt like he could do that. Now, I don’t know if we’re any closer to a trade agreement with China, Because right now they feel like they’re being bullied, so their pride is hurt, and so they’re backing off and they’re fighting.”

The Chinese are trying to buy time according to Suderman.

“Hoping that the consumer will turn on Trump, and therefore Congress will turn on Trump and limit his powers or ability to do this. But today’s move kind of cuts that strategy short,” he adds.

The total tariffs on U.S. pork imports into China, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, are at 131% and for beef at 106%.

The American Soybean Association confirmed China’s tariffs on U.S. soybeans are now at 114%.

At what point does China finally break down and negotiate?

Suderman says that’s hard to predict.

The grain markets were shrugging off the China news before the tariff delay as Chinese tariffs won’t impact the current soybean crop and the White House also said it was pausing the Section 301 fees on vessels of Chinese origin and is looking at restructuring those fees.

He thinks the markets can go back to trading their own fundamentals and in the case of the grains that includes Thursday’s WASDE.

Suderman anticipates a tightening of the balance sheets, at least for corn which is positive.

Grains Markets Absorb Tariff News, But Why Did Livestock Fail?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:38:33 GMT

Grains end mostly higher on Monday, with livestock seeing triple digit losses.

Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says old crop corn and soybeans rebound as well as the wheat market which have absorbed much of the tariff news.

Of course corn and wheat are USMCA compliant and so that leaves those commodities less impacted by tariffs than soybeans which have been hit by China retaliatory measures.

However, she says corn and wheat were also adding weather premium.

Flooding in the Ohio River Valley and mid-South will cause some replant and planting delays, which the corn market can’t afford with the push to plant 95.3 million acres.

Soft red winter wheat area also saw flooding and there was some freeze damage over the weekend in hard red winter wheat fields.

Wheat also saw some short covering as the funds are still largely short all three wheat classes.

Soybeans also saw some short covering off the lows but may still be vulnerable with possible China soybean cancellations of soybeans left unshipped.

Grains are also positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE Report with anticipation of lower old crop ending stocks for corn.

Blohm says demand has been strong for old crop corn and she thinks its possible the carryout could come in below the trade estimate of 1.5 billion bu., which would be bullish.

As far as South America crop adjustments, she isn’t expecting many changes by USDA in this report.

Livestock saw triple digit losses with additional fund liquidation despite a recovery off the lows in the stock market.

Blohm says cattle were due for a correction and have seen fund selling with the plunge in the stock market and recessionary fears.

So the lower close despite a recovery in financial markets off the lower was discouraging.

However, she says so far cattle futures are still holding uptrend lines on the charts.

Lean hog futures also ended lower after some early strength as President Trump renewed threats to increase Chinese tariffs another 50% if Beijing did not lower their retaliatory measures.

Cattle Try to Recover But is an Intermediate Top In? Grains Lower Pre-WASDE

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 14:19:24 GMT

Cattle open lower and then try to recover in a week that has seen a correction with plant closure concerns, lower boxed beef values and softer cash, at least in the South.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says if this correction is an intermediate top he doesn’t think the correction will be huge in the futures due to the big discount the futures are holding to the cash, plus the continued tight supplies.

Cash trade was still strong in the North at $198 and $312 dressed. Meanwhile, Southern cash trade has been softer this week at mostly $188, but there have been sales ranging from $185 to $191.

Varilek says the break early in the week may have been tied to the break in boxed beef values.

It was also linked to some disruptions at beef processing plants. Tyson in Dakota City, Nebraska was down on Monday due to a gas leak.

However, Varilek says, “There were some rumors that a Nebraska beef processing plant may have been closing. Even though it wasn’t confirmed that spooked the market and caused part of the the sell off in cattle,” he says.

A spokesman with Nebraska Beef confirmed that they ran full shifts every day during the week of July 8-12.

Mike Weaver, legal counsel for Nebraska Beef says, “Additionally, Nebraska Beef is not closing. Company management has been in the industry for over 60 years and has always operated the business to account for industry cyclicality, and the adverse market conditions that may occur as a result of herd adjustments. The Company is well capitalized, debt-free, and intends to be in the beef industry as long as there is an industry.”

Another negative bird flu story out of the UK was also out ahead of the open but Varilek doesn’t think the market traded it.

Lean hogs see a short covering bounce as they are oversold.

Grains are lower in anticipation of a bearish WASDE, but he says much of it is already priced in after this week’s selloff.

Cattle and Hogs Initially React Negative to USDA Reports, Then Bounce Off Lows: Grains Turn Mixed

Tue, 26 Dec 2023 21:06:15 GMT

Cattle open lower with a negative reaction to the COF report. Was it really that bearish and will weather and higher cash trump it? Hogs react to USDA numbers with a slightly larger inventory. Grains open higher then turn mixed assessing weekend rains in Brazil and seeing end of year positioning. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.

Markets End Mixed on Monday: Surprises in WASDE Take Soybeans Sharply Higher

Tue, 13 Sep 2022 19:54:11 GMT

Grains close mixed on Monday with a big rally in soybeans pulling up corn, while wheat ended lower. Cattle were mixed with hogs setting back. USDA dealt a few surprises in the WASDE, including lower soybean yield by 1.4 bpa and 600,000 less acres. Corn yield and ending stocks were right in line with estimates, but is the crop still getting smaller? Cotton production was up around 1 million bales but the market acted like it didn’t buy into the numbers, ending well off lows. Michelle Rook gets full analysis with Darren Frye of Water Street Solutions.

Grain and Livestock Futures Shake Off Election, Tariff Fears and Soaring Dollar

Grain and livestock futures closed mostly higher except for wheat.

Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says it was an impressive close especially for soybeans which were down 18 cents overnight in reaction to former President Trump’s election win and the possibility of increased tariffs on China and other export customers and another trade war.

However, the grains were also able to shake off a sharply higher dollar.

It may be tied to hopes export business will pick up before January 20.

“It could be the fact that we have an export window now until January until Trump takes office and there will be a lot more buying up until then. It could be that the commercials are seeing that exports aren’t going to be that bad. We kind of thought they were going to be zero if he got elected but with their economy isn’t in as good a shape as four years ago and maybe they can’t take his harassment or tariffs. Maybe they have to play nicer,. Maybe they’re going to do some business with us,” he says.

Or Frye says the market may sense that exports won’t be as bad as feared, as these low price levels have stimulated demand.

The key will be for the grain markets to see follow through buying on the strong closes.

“That’s the million dollar question. I mean the charts really look good going home Wednesday. You saw a huge range in soybeans a huge shadow on the candle stick chart. You saw corn close through some key resistance areas. Closing above the $4.24 to $4.25 areas was really important on December corn so we should get some follow through but as always time will tell,” he adds.

Frye was surprised by the strength and new highs in the stock market in reaction to the election.

“I expected the market to be higher but not 1,500 points on the DOW and 500 on the NASDAQ. I mean everything was up small caps, large caps, mid caps. Bit coin was up over $6000 a coin,” he says.

The rally in the financial markets spilled over to help support the livestock futures as well, despite the higher dollar and the trade and tariff fears.

Trump has also talked about raising tariffs on Mexican imports if the president does not provide help with the immigration and border issues.

Mexico is a top customer for U.S. pork and especially hams and so tariffs could hurt the export dependent hog market.

The big week continues with the FOMC decision on Thursday and the WASDE on Friday.

Frye says the bond market is pricing in a .25 point cut in interest rates but the last time Jerome Powell spoke he was a bit hawkish and with the run up in the stock market that may signal inflation is going to reignite.

“So it will be interesting to see what the Fed does with that,” he says.

As far as Friday’s WASDE, Frye isn’t looking for much change in yield, production or ending stocks for corn or soybeans.

“I think they got things pretty close to the mark. Many people were wrapping up harvest, they had a lot of the plots in the October report,” he says.

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