Livestock Markets

Breaking: Mexican Border Closed Again as New World Screwworm Comes Within 370 Miles of the U.S.

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 02:18:05 GMT

On July 8, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety and Quality reported a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, Mexico, which is approximately 160 miles northward of the current sterile fly dispersal grid on the eastern side of the country and 370 miles south of the U.S./Mexico border.

This new northward detection comes approximately two months after northern detections were reported in Oaxaca and Veracruz, less than 700 miles away from the U.S. border, which triggered the closure of our ports to Mexican cattle, bison and horses on May 11, 2025 .

While USDA announced a risk-based phased port re-opening strategy for cattle, bison and equine from Mexico beginning as early as July 7, 2025 , this newly reported NWS case raises significant concern about the previously information shared by Mexican officials and severely compromises the outlined port reopening schedule of five ports from July 7 to Sept. 15. Therefore, in order to protect American livestock and the U.S. food supply, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately.

“The United States has promised to be vigilant — and after detecting this new NWS case, we are pausing the planned port reopening’s to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico. We must see additional progress combatting NWS in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border,” Rollins says. “Thanks to the aggressive monitoring by USDA staff in the U.S. and in Mexico, we have been able to take quick and decisive action to respond to the spread of this deadly pest.”

To ensure the protection of U.S. livestock herds, USDA is holding Mexico accountable by ensuring proactive measures are being taken to maintain a NWS free barrier. This is maintained with stringent animal movement controls, surveillance, trapping and following the proven science to push the NWS barrier south in phases as quickly as possible.

In June, Secretary Rollins launched a 5-point plan to combat NWS by protecting our border at all costs, increasing eradication efforts in Mexico, and increasing readiness. USDA also announced the groundbreaking of a sterile fly dispersal facility in South Texas. This facility will provide a critical contingency capability to disperse sterile flies should a NWS detection be made in the Southern U.S.

Simultaneously, USDA is moving forward with the design process to build a domestic sterile fly production facility to ensure it has the resources to push NWS back to the Darien Gap. USDA is working on these efforts in lockstep with border states – Arizona, New Mexico and Texas – as it will take a coordinated approach with federal, state and local partners to keep this pest at bay and out of the U.S.

USDA will continue to have personnel perform site visits throughout Mexico to ensure the Mexican government has adequate protocols and surveillance in place to combat this pest effectively and efficiently.

Click to enlarge.

(USDA)

Your Next Read: Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm

Pork Profit Tracker: Hog Prices Support Solid Farrow-to-Finish Margins In The $40 Range

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 15:47:03 GMT

Pork packers continue to be faced with low margins in the face of relatively low wholesale pork prices against the cost of finished hogs while those same hog prices support solid farrow-to-finish margins in the $40 range.

The March 1 Hogs and Pigs inventory indicated total hog numbers remain steady with a year ago the breeding herd was reported to be down 1%. The Dec-Feb pig crop at 33.7 million was even with a year ago suggesting market hog numbers for the 3^rd quarter will be about unchanged from a year earlier.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending April 5.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Pork Profit Tracker: This Week’s Farrow-to-Wean Margin Estimate Averaging $45/head

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 22:41:45 GMT

Pork industry margins remain in the producer’s corner with the week’s margin estimate averaging $45/head and close to the producer margin for the past 8 weeks. At the same time, packers have experienced narrow margins for the past 6 months as wholesale pork prices have not offset the cost of hogs even though market hog numbers have maintained packer capacity utilization in the economic, low-to-mid 90% range.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending March 15.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Pork Profit Tracker: Breakeven Down $1, Capacity Also Down

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 15:57:59 GMT

This week’s Sterling Marketing Pork Profit Tracker shows lean carcass values remain strong supporting producer margins while packer margins at near breakeven against cash costs.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending March 8.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

WASDE Raises 2024 Red Meat and Poultry Production Forecast

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 12:26:00 GMT

The 2024 forecast for red meat and poultry production was raised from last month with higher beef, broiler and turkey production forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Nov. 8, beef production went up as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast was lowered on a slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights. Meanwhile, broiler and turkey production forecasts were raised due on production data reported through the end of the third quarter.

Imports and Exports
Recent trade data and stronger than expected imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter spurred an increase in the beef import forecast, the report says. Strong demand for processing beef is also a reason for raised 2025 beef import expectations. For 2025, the forecast is raised based on relatively higher expected global demand.

Although the pork export forecast for 2024 is raised slightly based on reported data through September, WASDE reports a lowered 2025 forecast based on forecast reductions and weaker demand expectations in several key markets during the first half of the year.

Price Predictions
Analysts forecast raised cattle prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 based on the continued strength in beef demand and recent prices. They expect this increase to carry into 2025.

As well, the 2024 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices and strong pork demand, the report says. Tighter pork supplies support higher prices in the first half of 2025, analysts note.

WASDE also raised the 2024 broiler price forecast based on recent prices.

“Higher prices are expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025, supported by higher cattle and hog prices,” analysts note in the report.

Pork Export Demand ‘Back On Track’

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 14:04:50 GMT

While Joe Schuele describes August as not being a huge month for pork, it was strong enough that the U.S. Meat Export Federation (MEF) announced new records for volume and value for pork exports will be achieved in 2024.

“It’s a great success story, especially on the volume side,” Schuele, U.S. MEF vice president of communications, told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Thursday. Flory noted pork exports are “back on track.”

During the conversation, Schuele shared highlights on the August 2024 livestock numbers and trends for U.S. pork and beef products sold around the world.

“August wasn’t a huge month for pork, but we were above this same time last year,” Schuele says. “It was a good solid month of about 6% from a year ago, and the value was about 8% just over $700 million.”

Importance Of Market Diversification

Pork’s export accomplishments are being achieved, despite lower purchasing levels from China. Schuele says the U.S. realized high-volume sales to China were likely a short-term opportunity following the country’s devastation from African swine fever a couple of years ago.

As a result, the U.S. MEF and the livestock industry in general have emphasized the importance of market diversification and worked to develop additional markets, with Mexico leading the way.

“With Mexico, you run out of superlatives when you talk about the demand for U.S. pork. August was just another tremendous month there, with exports to Mexico on a record pace,” Schuele says.

New And Unexpected Opportunities

Other key countries contributing to increased U.S. pork sales are Columbia and Malaysia. The latter is a newcomer on the scene.

“We’ve gotten some additional pork plants approved for export to Malaysia,” Schuele says. “I think a lot of people are surprised at the demand for pork in what is a predominantly Muslim country, but there is a significant pork eating population there. We had a record August in Malaysia and really good performance out of markets like Central America and the Caribbean, as well.”

Flory notes that U.S. MEF and other pork supporters have been working to develop opportunities in Central America and South America, creating traction for pork in markets there.

“What’s really exciting is we’re now moving center of the plate items there, with pork as a high-end entree. That’s what’s really made the difference in these markets,” Schuele agrees.

Dollars Going To Producers’ Bottom Lines

Flory asked Schuele how pork producers’ bottom lines are benefiting from pork this year.

Schuele said the average dollar amount per head slaughtered has been about $66 for the year.

“That’s an important metric, because it gives you an idea of what the return to the producer is at a time when pork producers need those returns from exports,” Scheule told Flory.

Mexico Provides Strong Beef Demand

Much like pork, on the beef side Mexico performed very well this year for U.S. exports.

“We’re moving a wide range of muscle cuts to Mexico, and it’s also our largest volume destination for beef variety meat items like tripe and lips and hearts and livers,” Schuele says. “Mexico is really important on the upper end and on the lower end with those variety meat items.”

He adds that the U.S. attributed the strong demand early this year in Mexico to the strong peso. In recent months, the peso has weakened, but Schuele says the country’s demand for U.S. beef, and pork as well, has held up well.

As Mexico’s retail supermarket sector has become increasingly modern and sophisticated, that has allowed for the opportunity to differentiate the quality of U.S. beef and pork from other providers.

“In that modern retail sector that really gives us a better opportunity to showcase our product,” Schuele says.

Consumer Confidence In Asia Sputters

In Asia, specifically South Korea and Japan, he notes that current beef exports haven’t been as strong as perhaps in the past.

“I would say the numbers were a little bit disappointing for August. We felt like we had some momentum in Japan that perhaps lost a little steam in August, but it wasn’t a bad month,” Schuele says.

Consumer confidence in Asia hasn’t been as strong as in the past, he notes. Consumers have not been as inclined to purchase U.S. meat products as they have been.

“We’re seeing some improvement in Japan, driven by the boom in tourism, and a little bit of improvement in Korea. In China, the consumer confidence levels really continue to be sluggish,” he says.

Schuele says the one bright spot in Asia is that the U.S. is seeing good numbers out of Taiwan, especially for high-end, chilled beef.

“Through the summer months, we saw demand from Taiwan really recover. Also, it was a good month in Southeast Asia. In some of the smaller markets, like the Philippines and Singapore, we saw numbers better numbers there in in August. So little bit of a slow month in August, but certainly some bright spots.”

Hear the complete conversation on AgriTalk here:

EU's Pork Production is Down 3 MMT in Two Years. To Put That in Perspective, That's as Much as the U.S. Exports in One Year

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 20:19:35 GMT

Pork exports have been a bright spot in the pork industry this year. Strong exports are coming from a number of countries and areas, including Korea, Colombia, Central America and Australia. But the European Union’s massive drop in domestic production is also giving U.S. exports a boost, and some of that drop is a product of environmental regulations.

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation data, EU’s pork production fell nearly 3 MMT from its peak in 2021.

“When you say 3 million tonnes, it doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s 25% of our production. They’ve reduced their output by the amount of product that we export,” says Steve Meyer, chief livestock economist of Ever.Ag, who shared during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during World Pork Expo this week. “So, this is a major shift in world supply situations with the EU stepping back that far. And it’s opened some opportunities, especially in Asia for us, that we can take advantage of.”

Meyer adds the proof is in the pudding, with export dating showing increases of nearly 55% to Korea.

“It’s a big deal, and it’s one of those things where it’s not going back the other way, more than likely,” Meyer says. “In fact, their production is probably going to go down more in the years to come. It’s kind of stabilized this year, but I think they’re going to make sure they’ve made policy decisions that are going to limit their output for years to come.”

EU’s pork production is now the lowest level in nearly 25 years. So, what’s causing pork production to take such a drastic drop? One reason is EU environmental regulations that have forced producers to cut back production. At the same time, EU is also dealing with ingredient supply chain problems and increased input costs. But economists and analysts say the environmental regulations are having the biggest hit to producers there.

“When you look around the world of what’s happened, there have been some major shifts in recent years,” says Brett Stuart, President and co-founder of Global AgriTrends. “The EU is a major competitor, but there have been some regulatory changes that have really caused them to step back from the global markets, which has provided a real in for U.S. pork in a lot of these key markets.”

Erin Borror, vice president of access and analysis for UMSEF, says the export market is a changing one, but it’s also complex. She describes it as a tale of two stories for pork exports.

“We had European products, undercutting us when China pulled back after they rebuilt through ASF, and so we’ve seen a return to U.S. competitiveness,” Borror says. “Our exports are going more volume at higher prices. So, we have seen that demand component. I think that’s really critical to understand.”

She says Europe’s pork prices have also increased after being too low in 2021 and 2022.

“And so there’s that factor in Asia, so especially Korea, Southeast Asia, where we’re seeing that growth, as well in Australia, taking back market share from Europe,” she says. “The other side is here in the Western Hemisphere, and in Latin America, where U.S. pork is driving consumption growth.”

That strong demand is thanks to trade agreements. “When you look at consumption growth in areas of Asia, that’s because of Europe’s production being down,” she says.

“I think there’s some real opportunities ahead, and it’s market by market. These markets are all unique,” Stuart says. “As we look out, I’ve got pork exports forecast up 9% this year, and that might be on the upper end of the range of vast amounts. But I look at it’s not just Mexico or Korea or Colombia. If you look at the other non-top 10 markets, that’s over 80 countries. That market is up 30% year-to-date, and it grew 30% last year. And so it’s not just this handful of markets we hear about a lot.”

What's Driving Strong Demand for Red Meat Exports?

Mon, 06 May 2024 14:58:23 GMT

A strong export market in March provided increased per-head-slaughtered value to U.S. livestock producers at nearly $71 for pork and more than $450 for beef.

These market numbers were steady compared with last year’s volume and edged higher in value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). While beef exports were below last March’s large volume, export value was the highest since June 2023.

According to USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom, a rebound in food service in key markets like Korea and Japan, along with a diversified demand for pork led to the strong month of red meat exports.

Pork exports totaled 260,430 metric tons (mt) in March, up 0.1% from a year ago, valued at $740.8 million – up 2% year-over-year and the seventh highest on record. March shipments to South Korea were among the largest on record, while exports also increased substantially to Central America, Colombia, Oceania, Vietnam and Malaysia.

“The timing of this couldn’t be better,” Halstrom says. “We know that with higher input costs in the supply chain and specifically for the producers on the farm it’s good to have a little bit of good news on the value side of the meat products.”

Through the first quarter, pork exports increased 6% to 762,784 mt, while export value climbed 7% to $2.11 billion. Although shipments to leading market Mexico trended lower in March, first-quarter exports to Mexico were still ahead of last year’s record pace.

The third largest volume in record to the Caribbean, including an all-time high to the Dominican Republic, and shipments to the Middle East strengthened significantly in March bringing beef exports to 108,218 mt, down 10% from a year ago, but still the highest of 2024. Export value was $889.9 million, down slightly from a year ago (-0.3%) but the highest in nine months. March export value equated to $454.62 per head of fed slaughter, the highest since mid-2022. While March volumes to South Korea and Mexico were below last year, export value still trended higher

January-March beef exports totaled 311,865 mt, down 4% from the first quarter of 2023, but export value increased 6% to $2.48 billion. Markets achieving first quarter value growth included South Korea, Mexico, Hong Kong, the Middle East, the Caribbean, Central America, Colombia, the Philippines and Singapore.

The Ukraine-Russian War: Rampant Inflation Puts Serious Squeeze on Disposable Income

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 13:59:10 GMT

Although the U.S. may not be feeling the immediate impact of the Ukraine-Russia War yet, it’s coming, says Rupert Claxton, livestock and meat director at Gira.

Much higher energy costs and higher feed costs as a result of the war between Ukraine and Russia are putting even more pressure on rising commodity prices. Ukraine grain and oilseed exports under any scenario are going to be minimized in 2022, but fertilizer could be the limiting factor, Claxton said during a Pork Checkoff webinar.

“There’s a huge impact on fertilizer cost because gas is really important in the production of fertilizer,” Claxton says. “Going forward, we’ve got to think about this sort of compounding effect of various costs going up. We’re seeing this across the whole system – fertilizer, feed, energy, transportation – nearly everything is bearing this oil price at the moment.”

He says farmers are going to be more sensitive about when and how they put fertilizer on. At $900 to $1,000 a ton rather than $200 to $250 a ton, will they just put it on speculatively? Probably not, Claxton says. They are more likely to “keep it in the barn” for another day.

This isn’t just happening in the U.S., he adds, it’s happening all over the globe. The result will be poorer yields and less grain on the global market.

“Now, farmers, if they’re clever, will be able to maximize what they do with their fertilizer. But that still means at the end of the day, there’ll be less grain in the world market and therefore higher prices,” Claxton says. “And you can take 55 million tons of grain out of the world market that’s missing from the Ukraine in the next 12 months at least – their export volume on the world market.”

So, what does this mean for U.S. pork producers?

Feed Prices

“U.S. pork producers buy a lot of feed forward. They’re much better at hedging, both in and out and further ahead, than Europeans,” Claxton says. “The U.S. is not seeing that feeding crop increase today, but we can see it out there.”

No one is denying that these increases in feed cost will be passed on to the meat and livestock producers, he adds.

“We’ve got a whole load of other cost increases that we are paying for, whether that’s fuel on the farm, transportation, labor,” Claxton says. “The fact that hog prices are where they are today means you can actually bear some of that price increase, and still make a profit on it.”

Recover More Value

The U.S. market has been staggering in recent years, he says, as it continues to see year-on-year growth in meat consumption. There’s no question chicken is a big part of that, but he says it’s happening across all species and continues at pretty good values.

“We’ve been pretty good in the U.S. at passing some of that cost on and recovering more value out of the carcass. So that’s been a really good story,” he says.

However, looking ahead into the next 18 months, he says producers may need to swing their thinking back to 2011-12, when they last saw those big price increases.

“Back then, the European industry wasn’t very good at recovering byproducts out of the carcasses. They were making enough money on the carcass, although it was a bit tight. Suddenly they got a lot better understanding the value of various parts of the carcass and trying to recover money from what they were doing because cost of production had gone up markedly and they struggled to pass that through to the consumer.”

Claxton questions how much more the U.S. pork industry can really recover out of the carcass to add value without passing all of the cost increase on to the consumer.

Consumption Decline

The reality is that the consumer is already feeling the squeeze, Claxton says. High gas prices, increased energy costs and inflation in goods across the spectrum are causing consumers to think twice.

“It all eventually comes back to their disposable income, how much they have left over that they can use to go out and spend on nice things,” he says. “At the end of the day, meat is a luxury product. It’s not a given that people will go and buy, especially the higher end bits of meat.”

Middle-income families may not be saying no to meat purchases yet, but he says low-income workers are definitely having to take a step back to consider whether or not they can afford to buy as much meat as they typically would. Claxton says this group of consumers is critical when it comes to absorbing a certain amount of meat out of the market.

“There’s a whole basket of issues that are a problem. That’s the thing that the pork producer needs to keep an eye on – the pinch,” Claxton says. “It’s hard to pass those costs on in a market where the consumer at the other end is feeling squeezed.”

An Eye on Exports

Because of these challenges, it’s more critical than ever to get product moved through exports.

“We know some of your markets in Mexico aren’t going to perform as well, because they’re seeing consumers squeezed. And you go out into global export market, demand is generally there, but China is still not back in the market buying in significant volume,” he says.

The impact of Omicron in China is disturbing everything from ports and internal infrastructure to transportation and supply to big cities.

“Consumers aren’t going out and buying meat in the way that they would be going out in a normal situation. Some of them aren’t going to work, they haven’t got income coming in, others just can’t get to the market. In other places, you can’t get the meat to the consumer for it to be consumed,” he says.

Meanwhile, Europe has more pork than it can consume.

“Up until a month ago, Europe was very aggressive on price and had a weak Euro. So, it was exporting very competitively against the U.S. into a number of markets. The Canadian price, if you stack it up against the U.S. price, is very low at the moment as well,” he says. “There are things out there that say, the U.S. pork industry is slightly out of tune with the rest of the world. The tightness of supply is a good thing because right now the last thing you want is an oversupply, where those prices come down.”

That tightness of supply has everyone scratching their heads about what came out in USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report yesterday, he adds.

“That is the thing that’s making the industry profitable today. Don’t go and ramp up production to the point where those pigs don’t have value and you’re struggling to pay to feed them,” Claxton says.

Don’t Lose Sight of Sustainability Goals

Time and resources will be distracted from the key global challenge of climate change, Claxton says.

“You’ve got to continue to do the work you’re doing on the long-term projects – sustainability criteria, marketing of the quality of your meats,” he says. “Everyone else is still working on them. If you stop now, you fall behind that curve. So for me, the thing to really emphasize is not to take your eye off that long-term goal.”

More from Farm Journal’s PORK:

Another Bullish Hogs and Pigs Report: How Long Will This Trend Last?

5 Takeaways from an Export Expert

Pork Exports: How Much Does Taste Matter?

JBS Settles Price Fixing Allegations for $52.5M, Industry Responds

Mon, 07 Feb 2022 16:53:49 GMT

JBS SA agreed to pay a sum of $52.5 million to settle litigation following accusations of conspiring to inflate prices and pocketbooks by limiting beef supply in the U.S. market.

In late 2019, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) sent a letter to the USDA, kickstarting an investigation into price discrepancies after a Tyson plant in Holcomb, Kan., went up in smoke. When the issue fell amiss, NCBA took to the White House requesting the Department of Justice (DOJ) open an investigation into cattle market wrongdoings.

According to NCBA, they worked directly with members of Congress to press the DOJ for an update and information regarding the investigation but had not heard back prior to the settlement announcement.

Colin Woodall, NCBA CEO, says the DOJ has an “obligation” to provide full transparency and finish the investigation to give cattle producers the full scope of the issue.

“NCBA encourages the government to finalize its investigation so we can fully understand any damage that may have been caused,” Woodall says. “Cattle producers do not have years to wait for the government to determine whether there has been wrongdoing, we demand answers now.”

The beef settlement comes on the heels of President Biden announcing his administration’s intentions to level the playing field in the meat sector by taking away power from a small group of meat packers.

The lawsuit notes the defendants—JBS, Cargill, Tyson, Inc. and National Beef Packing Co.—controlled roughly 80% of the fresh and frozen beef supply in the U.S. during their conspiracy that is said to have started as early as 2015.

In 2020, JBS settled for $24.5 million, surrounding price-fixing claims brought to the table by pork buyers.

Read More:

USDA Introduces First Market News Mobile App Providing Instant Access to Market Information

Tue, 01 Feb 2022 19:50:41 GMT

WASHINGTON, Feb. 1, 2022 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced a new USDA Market News Mobile Application, providing producers and everyone else in the supply chain with instant access to current and historical market information. The initial version of the free app includes nearly 800 livestock, poultry, and grain market reports, with additional commodities added throughout the coming year.

“USDA is focused on building more resilient and transparent markets and is taking steps to promote competition and fairer prices from farmers to consumers,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “This new Market News app helps create a more level playing field for small and medium producers by delivering critical market information to them where they are, when they need it.”

Producers and other users can search for markets based on their location, by state, or by commodity. They also can add market reports to their favorites for easier access, share reports via text or email, subscribe to reports, and receive real-time notifications when a new report is published. For additional data analysis, the app lets you share the source data behind the reports via email as well.

“One of the best features of the app is its simplicity,” Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Jenny Lester Moffitt said. “The USDA Market News app was designed with small producers in mind. Regardless of whether you market livestock throughout the year or once a year, you can navigate through this easy-to-use tool and access the information you need on your mobile phone. Built-in tutorials help first-time users get the most out of their experience.”

There are both iOS and Android versions available to download through the Apple and Google Play stores. The iOS version is available now (download here) and the Android version will be available later this week. Search for “USDA Market News Mobile Application” to download the app and begin exploring its potential. USDA will continue to expand the features of the app, including adding market information for all other commodities in the future.

USDA Market News continues to expand its tools and resources to ensure producers benefit from the vast amount of market information available and understand how this information can provide actionable insight to inform marketing decisions at the farm and other points in the supply chain. This mobile app allows producers to access market data and reports, regardless of where they are, more effectively, efficiently, and on demand.

Ethanol Outlooks Stable, Westhoff Says Export Demand Optimistic

Fri, 24 Sep 2021 14:50:10 GMT

University of Missouri Director and Howard Cowden Professor Patrick Westhoff joined AgriTalk host Chip Flory to share economic insights heading into the fall.

With crops in the Midwest transitioning from their vibrant, summer green to the long-awaited dull, harvest brown, Westhoff weighs in on what to expect in the markets following the crop season.

“Crop receipts for corn, soybeans, any number of other crops and even the livestock side as well is up sharply in 2021, offsetting that drop in payments and the increasing production costs this year,” says Westhoff.

Trade agreements, according to Westhoff, are in part to thank for current markets when comparing numbers from last week to a year ago.

“The number one difference is that we’ve got steadily higher imports from China projected now than they would have sent back then. That is a huge factor in the market. That’s why we’re talking about over $4 corn average prices for the next five years,” says Westhoff.

The ethanol boom seems to be nearing an end, but Westhoff says it shouldn’t be considered phased out just yet.

“We don’t show any big change in overall ethanol consumption in this country in the next decade. Even if electric cars expand, that’s not going to replace the fleet overnight,” says Westhoff. As long as we have continued use of 10% blends in at least some expansion of the higher-level blend markets, we think we could probably sustain something like current levels of domestic consumption for a number of years in the future of export demand, perhaps even a little bit more optimistic.”

Livestock outlooks are promising in Westhoff’s data. While he says decreasing cattle numbers over the next few years will mean a tighter supply-demand balance, pork tells a different story.

“We were surprised by how high hog prices have gone this year. It’s been a combination of strong demand from China, less supplies than we would have anticipated at these kinds of prices. Of course, higher feed costs have all come into play there. Looking forward, if we were to have a little more normal situation of the feed front, and if the growth in import and export demand is not as strong in 2022 as it’s been this past year, we could see some softening of higher prices in 2022,” says Westhoff.

Net farm income this year will reflect previous records, according to the University of Missouri Professor. However, he doesn’t predict they will stay that way.

“We’re looking at an annual number this year that’s almost at the 2013 record. Then falling off to about $100 billion dollars next year. In nominal terms that will leave the average farm income in the projection period a little bit above the recent average. But once you factor in inflation, it’s more comparable to want we’ve spent in the last five to seven years,” says Westhoff.

To hear more from Dr. Pat Westhoff, listen here.

High-Rise Piggeries: What China’s Pork Industry Transformation Means to U.S. Farmers

Mon, 02 Aug 2021 13:00:00 GMT

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been the big news regarding the Chinese hog industry for several years. However, even as the effects have lingered, Chinese pork consumption has been climbing by about 1 million tons/year, according to Jurgen Hijink, with the Hijdeporc Consultancy.

ASF boosted imports by almost fourfold, but rapid rebuilding of the hog herd suggests pork imports will recede to normal levels by 2026, he predicts.

A Colossal Appetite

With 9% of the world’s cultivated land, China feeds nearly 20% of the world’s population, explains Yu Ping, founder of Yu’s Design and president of Sichuan Tianzow Breeding Technology Co. China has 415.9 million pigs. Not only is it the world’s biggest pork producer, but it also has a population of 1.4 billion people with a per-capita pork consumption of 20.3 kg.

The Chinese pork industry has been transforming — with the shift from backyard farms to megafarms — ASF accelerated the change. Now production capacity can be added at an astonishing rate: The time from breaking ground to production on one 3,500-sow project took just seven months.

In China, many similar and much larger-scale projects are in the works. Hijink cites an operation that has 21 buildings, six stories high, with 660 sows each. Each floor is a self-contained unit. He notes that one company is producing more than 30 million pigs a year – that is equal to more than 21% of the U.S. pig crop in 2020.

(Farm Journal)

Modern Production = More Grain

Prior to 1995, almost all Chinese pig production was from backyard operations. Less than 15 years later, commercial operations that produce 50 to 1,000 pigs exceeded backyard production. Now, about 40% of production is from commercial operations with up to 1,000 sows and 40% from specialized farms with more than 1,000 sows, Hijink reports.

“By 2025, 65% of all production is likely to come from specialized farms, 30% from commercial farms and only 5% from backyard farms,” he predicts.

The modern farms, helped by imported modern genetics as well as scientific management, are expected to greatly increase annual piglets per sow from the current 16 toward the 25 to 30 pigs produced by Western operations.

They also achieve better feed conversions with reduced time on feed. Important for grain farmers is that specialized farms rely much more heavily on wheat or corn, which account for 65% of feed or 215 kg per pig, compared with 50% for commercial farms and just 20% for farms with fewer than 50 pigs produced.

(Farm Journal)

“This is the reason I expect feed demand to increase 40% - 40 million tons – by 2025,” he explains.

Of course, Hijink notes, “A major question is how much reliance on imports the Chinese government will accept and whether it may re-incentivize domestic grain production instead.”

More Pigs on Less Land

By Jennifer Shike

Yu Ping knew there had to be a better way to meet the needs of modern pig farming through a better hog building design. After many years of constructing pig farms, he decided to take a stab at designing something new. The result? High-rise piggeries.

For Yu, in his role as chairman, founder and designer of Yu’s Design and executive director and president of Sichuan Tianzow Breeding Technology Co., he’s been focused on how to raise more pigs on the same amount of land.

Figuring out how to raise more pigs on the same amount of land is a challenge that Yu doesn’t take lightly. He believes “hog hotels” or multi-story farms hold the answer.

One of the questions he gets asked often is about odor treatment and manure.

“With the multistory buildings, it’s easy to separate the solid and the liquid [waste] in real time, not like the traditional one that mixes them together after several months,” he said. “We can separate the liquid and solid immediately after they have it.”
He says the solid waste is easier to handle than the liquid waste.

“For the liquid, it’s headache for the whole industry, actually. It depends on how much land you’ve got, how much you are going to treat it,” Yu said. “If we have less land, like in China, we should treat it further and further and further.”

Yu wants to keep improving upon his designs in an effort to help China’s pig industry be more competitive worldwide.

(Farm Journal)

Smithfield Foods to Pay $83 Million to Settle Pork Price-Fixing Claims

Tue, 13 Jul 2021 20:36:11 GMT

Smithfield Foods Inc. said on Wednesday it will pay $83 million to settle litigation that accused several companies of conspiring to limit supply in the $20 billion-a-year U.S. pork market to inflate prices and their own profits.

The settlement with Smithfield resolves antitrust claims by “direct” purchasers such as Maplevale Farms that accused the nation’s largest pork companies of having fixed prices beginning in 2009.

Smithfield’s settlement requires approval by Chief Judge John Tunheim of the U.S. District Court in Minneapolis.

Keira Lombardo, Smithfield’s chief administrative officer, said the settlement eliminates a “substantial portion” of the Smithfield, Virginia-based company’s exposure in the litigation.

She also said Smithfield denied liability in agreeing to settle, and believed its conduct was always lawful.

Smithfield’s parent WH Group Ltd says it is the world’s largest pork producer.

Clifford Pearson, a lawyer for the direct purchasers, declined to comment.

Hormel Foods Corp, the JBS USA unit of Brazil’s JBS SA, Tyson Foods Inc. and data provider Agri Stats Inc are among the other defendants in the litigation.

Smithfield and those companies are also defendants in related price-fixing litigation in Minneapolis by commercial and other “indirect” pork purchasers, such as restaurants and delis.

The litigation is similar to litigation in federal court in Chicago where purchasers accused companies such as Tyson, Perdue Farms Inc and JBS’ majority-owned Pilgrim’s Pride Corp of conspiring to fix broiler chicken prices.

The case is In re Pork Antitrust Litigation, U.S. District Court, District of Minnesota, No. 18-01776.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

China is Just Part of the Demand Story Sparking a Surge in Pork Prices

Thu, 04 Mar 2021 21:07:24 GMT

Although the rising price of U.S. hogs is impacted by the African swine fever (ASF) setbacks China is experiencing in their hog herd, experts say it’s not the primary driver why prices are soaring in the U.S.

“The recent strength here in the U.S. hog industry has more to do with our own herd losses due to slightly more cases of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) here – especially in Minnesota and Iowa over the winter, some apparent herd liquidation and stronger product markets,” says Christine McCracken, Rabobank executive director, animal protein.

Lean hog prices on the CME experienced consecutive limit up days. As supply constraints are one catalyst, domestic demand for pork is also on the rise and the rebound is happening quicker than expected.

“Pork demand is really strong at retail and will likely strengthen through spring. There has also been some pipeline filling as foodservice operators are anticipating a rebound in sales as dining restrictions ease. The net result of all of this is a stronger market than most expected – which helps offset the pain of higher feed costs,” McCracken says.

ASF in China – How Bad Is It?
ASF outbreaks are nothing new in China. It’s been occurring since the country reported its first case in August 2018. McCracken says there was some preemptive selling to avoid losses, which pressured prices more in recent weeks and added to herd declines in the country.

As a result, hog prices in China have actually fallen 19% from January 1 through today, says Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends.

“That was unsettling until we realized how severe their recent wave of ASF has been. Disease outbreaks across China have led to another wave of liquidation which has pushed their prices lower. We expect prices to be near a bottom for now and think they will be rising by the end of March,” Stuart says.

Although U.S. pork exports to China are still very good, a year ago China was buying big volumes, Stuart adds. The U.S. is shipping around 25% of its production overseas.

Despite what’s happening in China, McCracken and Stuart agree that the big rallies in futures and prices appear to be driven by domestic supply and demand.

“With an inevitable COVID recovery in coming months (U.S. cases are down 77% in the past six weeks and vaccine is flowing quickly), it’s hard to imagine anything but rising demand into summer,” Stuart says. “U.S. personal savings have averaged around $1 trillion over the past 10 years (pre-COVID). January data showed U.S. personal savings at $3.9 trillion. Caged-up Americans are about to be let out for travel, restaurants and recreation.”

He adds that agriculture commodities have appeared under-valued in relation to the equity markets. Record stock markets produced record returns that need reinvested somewhere.

“Would you rather buy bitcoin near record highs or lean hog futures ahead of a COVID recovery? Non-commercial net long positions (speculative longs) are up more than 33,000 contracts since the first week of January,” Stuart says.

More from Farm Journal’s PORK:

How Close is China’s Pork Industry to Full Recovery?

2021 U.S. Pork Exports Forecast: Not Great, But Still Pretty Good

Commodity Group Execs Say Biden’s Top Trade Pick Tai Knows Agriculture

Cash Feeder Pig Prices Fall $5.81 From Previous Week

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:37:14 GMT

This market update is a Farm Journal’s PORK weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig. All information contained in this update is for the week ended May 3, 2019.

Looking at hog sales in November 2019 using December 2019 futures the weaner breakeven was $85.30, down $8.41 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.78 per head. December futures decreased $0.95 compared to last week’s December futures used for the crush and historical basis is declined from last week by $2.74 per cwt. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on May 3, 2019. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 40,500 head being reported which is 103 percent of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $63.16, down $2.03 from a week ago. The low to high range was $44.00 - $73.00. Formula priced weaners were up $1.31 this week at $52.28.

Cash traded feeder pig reported volume was below average with 7,705 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $90.54, down $5.81 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through May 3, 2019.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $6.38 this week to a projected gain of $22.14 per head.

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com .

Volatility Continues: Cash Weaner Pig Prices Down $5.69 From Week Ago

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:35:25 GMT

This market update is a Farm Journal’s PORK weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig. All information contained in this update is for the week ended June 7, 2019.

Looking at hog sales in December 2019 using December 2019 futures the weaner breakeven was $58.60, up $0.76 for the week. Feed costs were down $1.33 per head. December futures decreased $1.13 compared to last week’s December futures used for the crush and historical basis is improved from last week by $0.83 per cwt. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on June 7, 2019. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was below average this week with 36,199 head being reported which is 91 percent of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $38.19, down $5.69 from a week ago. The low to high range was $30.00 - $53.00. Formula priced weaners were down $0.01 this week at $46.24.

Cash traded feeder pig reported volume was below average with 7,722 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $63.36, down $5.71 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through June 7, 2019.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $6.45 this week to a projected gain of $20.41 per head.

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com .

Weaner Pig Breakevens was $41.18, down $3.37

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:32:46 GMT

This market update is a Farm Journal’s PORK weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig. All information contained in this update is for the week ended July 12, 2019.

Looking at hog sales in January 2020 using February 2020 futures the weaner breakeven was $41.18, down $3.37 for the week. Feed costs were up $1.97 per head. February futures decreased $0.65 compared to last week’s February futures used for the crush and historical basis is unchanged from last week. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on July 12, 2019. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was below average this week with 36,995 head being reported which is 91 percent of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $32.32, up $0.40 from a week ago. The low to high range was $19.00 - $41.00. Formula priced weaners were up $0.43 this week at $40.51.

Cash traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 12,050 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $50.79, down $0.97 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through July 12, 2019.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $3.77 this week to a projected gain of $8.86 per head.

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com .

Cash Weaner Pig Prices Average $26.41, Up $4.22 From Last Week

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:28:34 GMT

Summary:
Cash-traded weaner pig reported volume was above average this past week, with 53,200 head reported. Cash weaner pig reported prices were $26.41, up $4.22 per head from last week.

By Jennifer Brown, NutriQuest

This market update is a PorkBusiness.com weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig. All information contained in this update is for the week ended Sept. 13, 2019.

Looking at hog sales in March 2020 using April 2020 futures, the weaner breakeven was $68.36, up $6.67 for the week. Feed costs were up $3.09 per head. April futures increased $4.78 compared to last week’s April futures used for the crush, and historical basis is unchanged from last week. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on Sept. 13, 2019. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.
Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report:
Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 53,200 head being reported which is 123% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $26.41, up $4.22 from a week ago. The low to high range was from $17.00 to $40.00. Formula-priced weaners were up $3.09 this week at $41.04.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was below average with 2,525 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $38.98, up $2.83 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through Sept. 13, 2019.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $2.45 this week to a projected gain of $41.95 per head.

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com .

Will China Meat Consumption Rebound in 2021?

Tue, 12 Jan 2021 21:52:50 GMT

Driven by higher estimates for pork, the China total meat import forecasts for both 2020 and 2021 are revised 4% and 1% higher, respectively, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade report. Although pork import growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2020, it exceeded expectations and results in a more bullish outlook for 2021.

“The impact of African swine fever (ASF) is expected to have reached its zenith in 2020, pressuring consumption and increasing the country’s reliance on meat imports,” the report said.

Even with the elevated pace of trade, China meat consumption fell to its lowest level in more than a decade last year. In 2021, higher estimates for both China pork production and imports lead total meat consumption up 2% from the prior forecast, the report noted. Still, total meat consumption is expected to be below pre-ASF levels.

Global pork production for 2021 is revised up nearly 2% to 103.8 million tons due to the Chinese hog sector’s continued recovery from ASF.

High pork prices continue to incentivize Chinese producers to expand their herds, resulting in the production forecast for China being revised 5% higher. But experts believe China production will still remain below pre-ASF levels due to rising costs and animal management challenges.

Global pork exports for 2021 are revised up nearly 3% to 11.1 million tons on China import demand that, while lower year-over-year, is expected to remain elevated by historical standards, the report said.

“Abundant exportable supplies around the world are expected to find a home in China as consumption in this key market continues to be well below pre-ASF levels. Meanwhile, a weak peso and sluggish domestic economy lead to lower import expectations for Mexico,” the report said.

Beef
Global beef production for 2021 is slightly lower at 61.2 million tons due to declines in China and the U.S., the report said. China is revised down 3% to 6.7 million tons due to lower than expected production in 2020. Meanwhile, global beef exports are unchanged for 2021 at 10.8 million tons.

“Asia demand remains robust and the supply forecast for most major exporters is unchanged,” the report highlighted.

Poultry
Global chicken meat production is revised 1% lower in 2021 to 101.8 million tons driven by sharp declines in the EU and China. In addition to weaker domestic demand and higher grain prices, the EU is battling widespread Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. The report said China chicken meat demand is growing but at a slower rate as the swine herd recovers and pork production rebounds.

Chicken meat exports for 2021 are down nearly 1% globally to 12.1 million tons. Lower EU, Thailand and Brazil exports will be offset by gains in the U.S. The outlook for China imports remains unchanged.

Read more:

USMEF Audio: Rebound in Western Hemisphere Markets Highlights Latest Beef and Pork Export Results

COVID-19 Case Rates in Packing Plants Decline as General Population Rate Soars

Tyson Foods Agrees To Settle In Poultry Price-Fixing Lawsuit

Why is China Suspending Imports from Some Meat Processors?

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:56:56 GMT

By Dominique Patton

(Reuters) - Top meat importer China has suspended imports from some foreign meat packing plants where workers became infected with coronavirus - but not others.

Why is China So Wary of Frozen Food Imports?

China is the world’s top meat importer, bringing in huge volumes in recent months because of a shortfall at home.

Authorities in Beijing found heavy traces of the coronavirus in the meat and seafood sections of the Xinfadi market, a large wholesale food market in Beijing, after an outbreak there in June.

Though there was no evidence to show food had caused the infection, officials at the General Administration of Customs have said they cannot rule out such a risk given the rapid development of the pandemic abroad.

The agency, which oversees food imports, has told trade partners that its efforts are aimed at easing consumer concerns about the safety of imported produce, said diplomats familiar with the conversations.

How Does China Assess Which Meat Plants Should Be Suspended?

China’s General Administration of Customs did not respond to a Reuters request seeking clarification on its process.

But it has held meetings with food and agriculture authorities from exporting nations, say diplomatic sources, urging them to voluntarily suspend exports from meat plants where workers have contracted COVID-19.

Many countries are complying with China’s request. Argentina recently halted exports to China from seven plants that had COVID-19 cases among employees. Canada, Ireland and France have also voluntarily suspended exports.

In countries that have not notified Beijing of outbreaks, customs has at times halted imports from the affected plants.

Several plants have been suspended in Brazil but only one has in the U.S., where more than 16,000 meatpacking workers in dozens of plants have been infected with coronavirus.

Many plants have been able to resume exports to China after notifying Customs that cases are under control.

What Do Companies Say?

Canada’s Maple Leaf Foods Inc said Aug. 19 it was complying with Chinese government protocols for Canadian processors that require any plant reporting a positive COVID-19 case to suspend exports to China.

Cargill Inc’s Canadian beef plant at High River, Alberta is also blocked from shipping to China, and said it is communicating with Chinese authorities through the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. The agency said it is working with Cargill to formally request that exports resume.

Others like Brazil’s BRF have said they were not immediately notified when plants were banned. BRF said Chinese agencies had carried out tests in food samples but found no traces of the novel coronavirus on those.

Tyson Foods Inc says it is working to get China all the information it needs in order to resume exports from the United States.

(Reporting by Dominique Patton; additional reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba and Ana Mano in Sao Paulo; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Chris Reese)

WASDE: Price Forecasts for Pork, Cattle Edge Back

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:49:51 GMT

As farmers debated the accuracy of planted acres and crop conditions in yesterday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report, livestock producers anxiously watched for changes in the 2019 red meat and poultry production forecast. Little impact came however.

The WASDE report raised the 2019 red meat and poultry production forecast from last month as higher forecast pork and broiler production more than offsets lower beef and turkey production forecasts.

The beef production forecast is reduced primarily on lighter carcass weights and slightly lower third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. USDA will release its Cattle Report on July 19th, providing a mid-year estimate of U.S. cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef cow replacement.

Click here to read Drovers’ latest coverage of the cattle markets.

Forecast pork production is raised from last month on higher-than-expected second-quarter commercial hog slaughter. In addition, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on June 27th, indicated a first-half pig crop 4% above 2018 which supported a higher second-half production forecast. Second-quarter broiler production is raised on slaughter data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Turkey production is lowered slightly on second-quarter production data.

Click here to see Farm Journal’s PORK coverage of the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report .

For 2020, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher forecast pork production. Although producers indicated intentions to farrow about the same number of sows in the second half of 2019, growth in pigs per litter will help support higher numbers of pigs for slaughter in 2020. Beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.

The beef import forecast is raised for 2019, but the export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data. The 2020 beef trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. The pork export forecast for 2019 is lowered on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. The 2019 broiler export forecast is raised on recent trade data and stronger expected global demand in the second half of the year, while the turkey export forecast is little changed. No change is made to the 2020 broiler and turkey export forecasts.

Cattle price forecasts for 2019 are lowered from last month, reflecting current prices. For 2020, forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Hog price forecasts are lowered on recent prices and pressure from increased pork production in late 2019. Hog prices for 2020 are reduced slightly on increased supply pressure. Broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2019 on current price weakness and continued slow demand. No changes are made to 2020 broiler price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are raised for 2019 and 2020.

Read more from Agweb:

WASDE: Corn Ending Stocks Jump, Soybeans Drop

USDA, WASDE Reports Don’t Matter Anymore

Markets Jump on Skyrocketing Hog Inventory

Fed Cattle Steady, Feeders Uneven

Corn Surge Fuels Biggest Meat Selloff of '19 Amid Feed-Cost Fear

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:25:43 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Shares in meat companies like Tyson Foods Inc. and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. have been rallying on expectations of a global protein shortage due to a hog disease in China. Now a spike in corn and soybean prices is fueling the biggest selloff of the year.

The rally in crop prices -- as wet weather keeps U.S. farmers from planting -- signals higher feed prices for the animals that the meat companies raise.

Top U.S. meat producer Tyson dropped as much as 5% on Wednesday, the most since November. Chicken producer Pilgrim’s sank as much as 7%, the most since December. Brazilian giants JBS SA and BRF SA led declines in the benchmark Ibovespa equity index.

The selloff may present buying opportunities, said Rebecca Scheuneman, an analyst with Morningstar Investment Service. Crop price gains “will not overcome the margin improvement we expect to see in protein businesses, because pricing will be so much better with the massive protein shortage” coming due to African swine fever in China, she said.

Companies with significant U.S. production such as JBS, Pilgrim’s and Marfrig Global Foods SA are most impacted in any scenario of tighter feed supplies, according to a report by BTG Pactual analysts led by Thiago Duarte.

“We still think the African swine fever impacts may offset all that,” the BTG analysts said.

To be sure, meat companies are still among the best-performing stocks this year. JBS is up 84%, Pilgrim’s Pride has climbed 63% and Tyson has gained 44%. China, the biggest hog producer and consumer, is projected to lose 10% of its pork production this year due to the disease, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The nation’s imports are forecast record high in 2019.

That could result in an unprecedented shortfall of pork that will lift global protein prices. Chicken producers are in particular expected to benefit, as a cheaper substitute for pork. China’s beef imports are already touching new records. The disease is spreading to other Asian countries, like Vietnam.

The impact of relentless rains in the U.S. Midwest is even rippling through to Chinese futures markets. Vegetable meals and oils surged Wednesday, and trading volumes rose over anxieties about tightening feed supplies.

The U.S. feeder cattle market is spooked by the looming corn crisis, too. August futures are on track to drop for a second straight session and touched the lowest ever for the contract.

“Protein stocks are a gut trade during the planting season, and more often than not, it’s a risk-off environment for buyers of feed,” said Jeremy Scott, a restaurant and proteins analyst at Mizuho Securities.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

5 Factors Driving the Livestock Outlook

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:24:19 GMT

Livestock farmers are facing a combination of headwinds and tailwinds—as well as a lot of unknowns. Issues such as meat supplies, global diseases and low profitability will all weigh on the future of the industry, says Scott Brown, University of Missouri economist.

Livestock industry net returns are expected to remain mostly flat through 2020, below the record highs of 2014-15, but above levels prior to 2011, according to the 2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook report compiled by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. Strong consumer demand for meat and dairy products drive projected increases in the long term, though many uncertainties exist regarding economic and trade issues.

Brown outlines five key trends producers should monitor going forward.

Meat Supplies

Meat production—beef, pork and chicken—will increase again in 2019, the fifth consecutive year of output gains exceeding 2 billion pounds, per FAPRI’s estimates. While meat export growth has been positive since 2016, it has not kept pace with the increases in production.

Source: FAPRI

FAPRI estimates point to a growing concern regarding the amount of additional growth that can be sustained without sharp price declines.

Disease Issues

Especially for the pork industry, disease issues remain critical. Production losses from African swine fever (ASF) have eclipsed initial estimates, according to a recent Rabobank report. In 2019, Rabobank expects Chinese pork production losses of 25% to 35%, creating new challenges and opportunities for animal protein exporters.

While that estimate may be a bit high, Brown notes, the effects of African Swine Fever remain unclear.

Weather Outlook

Drought conditions in 2018, a wet fall and long winter have caused livestock producers to stretch historically thin hay supplies. USDA’s Feb. 8 USDA Hay Stocks report showed Dec. 1, 2018, hay stocks at 79.06 million tons, down 6.4% from one year ago. The Dec. 1 hay inventory was the lowest total since 2012.

Brown expects many producers were forced to feed low-quality hay, which could affect the upcoming calf crop.

“The weather has been a key driver of livestock outlook,” he says.

Domestic Demand

U.S. consumers’ appetite for meat has been a bright spot for livestock producers, Brown notes. Low unemployment and a strong U.S. economy are helping fuel record domestic meat consumption.

Yet, Brown says, he’s carefully watching for signs that domestic demand strength for meat is changing.

“What happens the day consumers decide fat is bad for them again? Play that out in your mind; it’s not such an optimistic situation,” he says. “If this economy turns into a recession, what happens to meat demand?”

Trade Outlook

Trade disruptions have affected livestock export values. Though pork export quantities grew by more than 4% in 2018, the value of total pork exports fell by nearly 5% in the second half of the year relative to 2017, FAPRI reports.

Source: FAPRI

“Trade agreements and tariffs are critical to meat exports,” Brown says. “What we did yesterday doesn’t matter, it’s what happens tomorrow that matters.”

While the presence of ASF in China could support stronger pork exports in coming months, Brown is watching two issues.

“No. 1 is I don’t think the Chinese will import 1 lb. of pork for 1 lb. they no longer produce. I think they’ll find substitutes,” he says. “No. 2, who gets that trade?”

Overall, Brown says the abundant meat supplies are a negative force for the livestock outlook, while the disease issue and domestic demand are positive. The two biggest unknows are weather and trade agreements.

Read More

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What’s Driving Higher Hog Prices?

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:34:04 GMT

USDA is forecasting 10.8% higher hog prices year-over-year in 2019. While there are many factors at play, improving exports and packer competition are driving prices higher, said Millie Haley of USDA’s Economic Research Service.

In July, U.S. pork exports topped the record held since April 2018, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July pork exports surged to 233,242 metric tons (mt), up 32% year-over-year. Export value was $623.3 million, up 34% and breaking the previous high from November 2017. These results pushed January through July exports 2% ahead of last year’s pace at 1.48 million mt while value was down 2% at $3.77 billion. Pork export value averaged $58.92 per head in July, up 22% from a year ago and the highest in five years.

On the surface, China’s 10% increase in tariffs earlier this year would seem negative, but that’s not been the case, according to Pro Farmer editor Brian Grete.

“The way [the hog market] rallied in the face of bearish Chinese news on tariffs and closing limit up in the front month contract is pretty darn impressive, given the circumstances,” Grete told “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory.

Usually markets don’t make those kinds of large moves, he said, unless the “know something.” Maybe the impact of African swine fever on Chinese hog herds is worse than originally thought.

“We don’t really know what the impact is fully, just that it’s much greater than everything that’s being reported,” Grete said. “Talking to people who have been over there, directly involved or indirectly involved with that situation, it’s just devastating, completely devastating.”

From a pork perspective, there are long-term positive ramifications possibly, he said.

“Lost in all the China noise is the fact producers appear to be benefitting from packer competition for hogs,” Haley said. “There’s lots of new kill space in the Midwest that needs to be filled now.”

Packers are having no trouble getting the hogs, Grete added.

“But it doesn’t feel like the system is overwhelmed by numbers either, and I don’t think it will be to be honest with you,” he said. “We’ve added enough slaughter capacity the past couple years to the point where it shouldn’t take us to our knees.”

That said, Grete expects no shortage of hogs moving through the system the last half of 2019.

Is Pork Demand Related To The Winter Olympics?

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:31:06 GMT

The 2018 Winter Olympics will begin February 9 in Pyeongchang, South Korea and athletes are preparing to be on the global stage.

Pork producers are preparing too, but in a different way. According to Steve Georgy, vice president of Allendale, Inc., demand to South Korea has increased 21 percent compared to where the picture was in 2017, but it’s not solely because of the Olympic Games.

On AgDay , he said there’s bird flu issues that are increasing demand. In one week, more than 800,000 birds were culled. Russia is having some of the same problems.

“This may have more of a bigger impact than we know right now, so be careful of that with these principles,” said Georgy.

Georgy thinks the hog market is showing signs of inflation, and it’s something that can’t be sustained throughout 2018. He suggests that producers should be protected moving forward and leave the upside open.

“We do need to be careful right now,” he said.

Watch his full comments on AgDay above.

Big Pork Purchase Is Just a Taste of What China Needs to Buy

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:22:27 GMT

USDA confirmed a large buy of pork from China this week. Of the 46,300 metric tons (MT) of exports sold, China bought 31,400 MT, the second-largest purchase even of U.S. pork. The growing hunger for pork this year is due to African swine fever (ASF) continuing to sweep the country, and the sale is just a taste of the amount of pork exports that could be coming in the next few months.

RaboBank’s protein analyst Christine McCracken describes the losses as “massive,” and larger than the entire U.S. hog production on an annual basis, which could create a historic protein shortage in China and Asia.

“Based on our analysis, we are looking at about a 16-million-metric-ton deficit,” said McCracken.

China can supplement the losses with other meat and protein sources, including chicken, duck, eggs and seafood, she said. However, even those sources can’t make up for the historic losses Asia is currently seeing.

“All of that, in a year-over-year basis, could only increase by about 4 million metric tons (MMT), so out of 16 MMT, adding back 4 MMT locally with other proteins, really leaves you still with a huge gap,” she said.

McCracken said the list of available countries to source the gap in protein supplies is short, which translates into a huge exporting opportunity for not just the U.S., but also Europe, Canada, Mexico and Brazil

“At the end of the day, if China wants additional protein supplies, they’re going to have to come to the U.S…. even with the tariffs,” said McCracken.

She said the reason is simple--the list of countries able to export enough pork to China is short.

“There aren’t a lot of options, and I think that’s a big part of why the U.S. should benefit,” said McCracken. “Europe is the largest exporter in the world, they have about double of what we have in terms of production.”

ASF has also hit Europe, a factor that could limit the EU’s ability to export to China and Asia.

“Brazil is sizeable, but a fraction of what we could export here in the U.S. Canada is a big exporter of pork, Mexico, as well. So, a number of countries around the world could export to China, but the list is pretty short, because beyond that, there’s not a lot of countries with available supply to the Chinese market, or even all of Asia,” McCracken said.

China will have to rely on protein imports from around the world, including pork, chicken and beef, but even those exportable supplies are limited, she added.

“We think right now we’re looking at a 3 to 4 MMT exportable base to China, which still leaves them short on protein,” said McCracken. “It’s a huge opportunity for producers in the U.S. to see some upside in prices, after a period of losses,” she said.

Related Links:

Will African Swine Fever Push Consumers to Alternative Proteins?

China’s Love of Pork May Not Be Enough