Inflation

Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic Recognizes Sectors of Agriculture Are in Crisis

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:19:57 GMT

Is an economic crisis brewing in farm country? That’s the question Raphael Bostic, outgoing president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is watching as balance sheets carry over operating expenses into the 2026 season.

“There’s a lot of distress in agricultural marketplaces and in a lot of our agricultural enterprises,” Bostic says. “I do think there’s a significant crisis here.”

During a fireside chat at the 2026 Top Producer Summit , he recognized the challenges facing farmers in today’s financial environment.

“I get to talk to a lot of smaller family farms and I worry about them, especially because the big operations, they are so large scale, it gives you a diversity of possible strategies,” Bostic explains. “You can tap into different types of credit that can allow you to weather volatility a bit more readily, and we don’t see that for a lot of the smaller folks.”

To help, USDA is set to release $12 billion in “ Farmers Bridge Assistance ” payments toward the end of the month.

“This is a short-run patch on something that could be a long-run problem,” Bostic says.

Rising Expenses and the Growing Debt Burden

USDA is expecting net farm income to be $153.4 billion, which is down $4.1 billion from 2025. Economists say this year’s latest outlook continues to reflect declining receipts and an ongoing reliance on help from the government, which is expected to increase by 45% in 2026 alone.

“Total production expenses are forecast to increase almost $5 billion or 1%,” says USDA economist Carrie Litkowski. “On the farm sector balance sheet, assets, debt and equity are all forecast to increase.”

The latest Purdue University - CME Group Ag Economy Barometer in January found 21% of farmers surveyed expect their operating loan to increase over a year ago. Of those, a third say it’s because they’re carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year. In 2023 that number was only 5%.

“We know that input prices for a host of products are up,” Bostic says. “We know that competition at a global level is up. We know that the tariffs have put tremendous pressure on the competitiveness of American products overseas because of those dynamics, and we also know many commodity prices haven’t changed to offset these things. These are all incredibly challenging dynamics to wrestle with, and how we move forward is really an open question.”

Fed Policy: Why Patience is Required for Rate Cuts

The Fed’s primary mandate of stable prices and maximum employment provides an environment with predictable growth, giving people the opportunity to invest for the long haul without having to worry about where the economy will be in five to 10 years.

“First we have to diagnose the problem,” Bostic says. “Is this an issue with labor availability, an issue in new technology or shifting climate patterns, etc., and then we need to think about what strategies will work for all of these new things.”

That mandate requires patience in seeing how current monetary policy impacts the market. Bostic notes inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but economic growth has been and will continue to be robust. One thing he’s not advocating for is a continuation of interest rate cuts.

“The government shutdown actually prevented a lot of data from being produced, so it is actually going to make the numbers a bit choppier in the next several months,” Bostic explains. “The usual signals we would get from those [reports] are actually going to be weaker than they would be otherwise. For me, that’s another reason why I think we want to be cautious. We want to be patient, and I think that’ll be prudent.”

Patience ahead of additional rate cuts would allow the Federal Reserve to see how tax cuts and deregulation stimulate growth into 2026 before cutting rates, which could spur inflation even further above the Fed’s target.

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Raphael Bostic, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Bill Watts, Pro Farmer editor, to share insights into the economic forces shaping monetary policy and what that could mean for agriculture.

(Farm Journal )

The ag economy is seeing similar challenges to the economy as a whole. Bostic remarks while the top end of the economy is doing remarkably well, there is a growing number of U.S. consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck, evidenced by the increased rhetoric around a K-shaped economy. That has made itself evident in the ag economy by higher consolidation, with big farms getting bigger and smaller farms going out of business.

“This economy has continued to perform well at an aggregate level; consumers have continued to be resilient, and that’s a good thing,” Bostic says. “My outlook is that the resilience we’ve seen for much of 2025 will continue into 2026 and might even get a bit stronger, so we might actually see some of the tax benefits, some of the deregulation, those things could actually spur the economy to do even more than what it did last year.”

Consolidation and the Transformative Potential of AI

The latest red flag, a sluggish labor market has Bostic waiting on data and wondering if technology or AI are having an outsized role in the current new-hire economy.

“When you think about AI, for example, and those technologies, businesses are experimenting with ways to have AI introduced into their production processes to allow productivity that doesn’t require people,” Bostic admits. “You may have heard reports about a lot of entry-level hiring has happened at a much lower pace than it has in previous years. A lot of that is because the promise of AI has folks thinking, well, maybe I don’t need to do those hires, and I can get that same amount of productivity. That’s a structural change.”

From a farming perspective, those opportunities are also presenting themselves. Given the current challenges in agriculture, Bostic says it might be time to look at new ways to build toward the future.

“To the extent that work can be done, that is, generative, without necessarily needing a person to be there all the time, that’s potentially transformative,” Bostic says. “I know the day is long, seasons are hard, and if you can use technology to take two hours out of it that gives you space to do other things. The opportunity there is what do you do with that extra space?”

Ag Economists Warn of Lingering Farm Economic Strain: ’Not the 1980s, But Close’

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:48:45 GMT

The October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor paints a tough picture for U.S. farmers heading into 2026: weak trade demand, stubbornly high input costs and continued consolidation across agriculture. While experts say today’s challenges don’t match the full-blown crisis of the 1980s, most agree the current downturn is dragging on with few signs of a quick turnaround.

“High input costs and the inability of domestic soybean crush growth to offset lost Chinese demand” continue to weigh heavily on profitability, one economist explains.

Another adds: “The lack of trade opportunities, and high input costs, are doing the most damage right now.”

A third economist sums it up more bluntly: “Margins are collapsing, and optimism is evaporating fast.”

By the numbers, here are highlights from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

(Lori Hayes )

Conditions Expected to Continue or Worsen Into 2026

One of the major themes in the latest survey is the fact negative margins could be a theme for row crop agriculture for the foreseeable future.

Nearly 60% (59%) of economists say the farm economy is worse off than a month ago, and almost 90% believe it’s weaker than last year. 76% expect the situation to persist or even worsen through 2026, while only a quarter expect any improvement in the next 12 months. As one economist puts it: “It’s not a collapse, but it’s a grind.”