Hog Prices-Markets

U.S. Justice Department Settles Agri Stats Meat Pricing Case

Fri, 08 May 2026 15:16:14 GMT

The U.S. Department of Justice and six states settled their antitrust lawsuit against data company Agri Stats on Thursday in a move DOJ officials said would lower meat prices for consumers.

The Trump administration is looking to make consumer foods more affordable as Americans grapple with the rising cost of living, including surging gas prices

The DOJ in September 2023 alleged Indiana-based Agri Stats’ weekly reports on meat pricing and sales enabled anti-competitive practices in the chicken, pork, and turkey industries. The case was scheduled to go to trial this month.

Thursday’s settlement limits what data Agri Stats can collect, and requires it to offer its data not only to meat processors, but also to meat buyers like grocery stores and restaurants.

“This Department of Justice is laser-focused on making everyday life affordable for all Americans,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said.

The Agri Stats settlement included California, Minnesota, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

Agri Stats President Eric Scholer said in a statement that the company was pleased to resolve the matter. He said its reports have helped chicken producers expand production and reduce costs.

“It has not been easy for a small company to litigate against a massive government agency with unlimited resources, and we could not have achieved this outcome had our customers not stood behind us,” he said.

The DOJ settlement goes farther in some ways than Agri Stats’ recent settlements with meat purchasers and workers that required the company to stop providing meatpackers with competitor or plant-level pricing and wage data.

If approved by the judge overseeing the case, Thursday’s agreement would run for 10 years, as opposed to five in the private settlements. Agri Stats would also be subject to a seven-year monitorship.

(Reporting by Jody Godoy, David Shepardson, Jody Godoy and Ismail Shakil; Writing by Susan Heavey; Editing by Daphne Psaledakis and Nia Williams)

DOJ Plans to Settle Agri Stats Case, White House Official Says

Mon, 04 May 2026 20:01:34 GMT

The U.S. Department of Justice plans to settle its case against data company Agri Stats with an agreement officials hope will help drive down food costs, White House adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday.

The DOJ alleges Agri Stats’ weekly reports on meat pricing and sales enabled anti-competitive practices in the chicken, pork and turkey industries. The case is scheduled to go to trial this month.

Agri Stats has called the claims baseless and said its services result in lower prices. A company representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Trump administration has been increasingly focused on affordability as Americans sour on how President Donald Trump has handled the rising cost of living.

MEAT-PACKING INDUSTRY PROBE

Speaking at the same press conference, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the DOJ will use every law enforcement tool available to address rising food prices.

Prosecutors have reviewed more than 3 million documents and conducted interviews in their ongoing probe of the meat-packing industry, Blanche said. He urged whistleblowers to come forward and potentially claim financial awards for information.

“Multiple plant closures across the country, the current market structure, and high concentration in the industry indicate anti-competitive activity,” Blanche said without naming the companies involved.

Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS USA and National Beef Packing Company slaughter about 85% of U.S. grain-fattened cattle that become steaks, beef roasts and other cuts of meat in supermarkets.

The companies have been accused in private lawsuits of conspiring to inflate U.S. beef prices by restricting supply. They have denied wrongdoing. Tyson, Cargill and JBS have agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars to settle some claims.

Spokespeople for the companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Monday.

(Reporting by Jody Godoy in New York and David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Joe Bavier and Nia Williams)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $57.22, Down $7.05 From Last Week

Mon, 04 May 2026 14:26:24 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on May 1 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using December 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $57.22, down $7.05 for the week. Feed costs were up $1.70 per head, and December futures decreased $9.43 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is improved from last week by $6.88 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $83.33.

Figure 1 - Weaner Pig Breakeven on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 76,315 head being reported which is 103% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $77.91, up $1.68 from a week ago. The low to high range was $62 to $88. Cash prices were 90.13% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $0.85 this week at $63.46.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 24,275 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $112.91, down $4.11 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 1 - Seasonal Trends on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

Graph 2 - Seasonal trends on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through May 1.

Graph 3 - Cash Price Differences on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $8.73 this week to a projected loss of $20.69 per head.

Graph 4 - Profit Opportunity on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Pseudorabies (PRV) Confirmed in Iowa and Texas Commercial Swine Herds

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 22:17:16 GMT

For the first time since being eradicated in the U.S. commercial swine herd in 2004, pseudorabies (PRV) has been confirmed in herds in Iowa and Texas.

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed the detection of PRV antibodies in a small commercial swine facility in Iowa. The discovery was made through routine testing rather than pre-movement surveillance.

Traceback Confirms Texas Connection

Initial traceback efforts reveal that five affected boars in the Iowa facility originated from an outdoor production site in Texas. Subsequent testing of the Texas herd also returned positive results for the virus.

APHIS is currently collaborating with the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) and the Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) to expand traceback efforts and identify any further exposures.

The Feral Swine Risk

Although the commercial industry has been free of the disease for more than 20 years, PRV remains prevalent in feral swine populations across the U.S. Officials believe this detection is a result of “spillover” from wild populations.

“Pseudorabies is still found in wild or feral swine populations, which remain a potential threat of exposure for domestic pigs,” an APHIS release stated. The Texas herd involved was housed outdoors, where contact with feral swine is possible.

Impact and Symptoms

PRV is a contagious viral disease that serves as a significant threat to herd productivity:

Adult Pigs: Causes abortions, stillbirths, and respiratory issues.
Newborn Pigs: Attacks the respiratory and central nervous systems, leading to sneezing, incoordination, and high mortality rates.

While pigs are the only natural hosts, PRV can infect most other mammals—though humans, horses, and birds are considered resistant.

Official Response and Market Safety

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig emphasized that the state is moving decisively to eliminate the disease.

“The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship has spent years preparing for these types of animal health events,” Naig said. “It’s important for people to know that pseudorabies is not a food safety concern, and this virus does not pose a risk to consumers. The United States’ pork supply remains safe and secure.”

Export Implications

Despite the lack of risk to food safety, the detection could have economic repercussions. APHIS warns there may be limited, short-term impacts on the exports of U.S. swine and swine genetics as trading partners evaluate the new health status.

“Established protocols were implemented immediately in response to the incident and remain in place to safeguard the commercial swine industry,” the National Pork Producers Council said in a statement. “These steps were successfully deployed through swift action and close coordination with USDA and the IDALS. The National Pork Producers Council and Iowa Pork Producers Association support these efforts and remain committed to a coordinated response to prioritize biosecurity and prevent further occurrences.”

Smithfield Foods Beats Quarterly Estimates on Steady Packaged Meats Demand

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 19:46:29 GMT

Smithfield Foods beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter sales and profit on Tuesday and stuck to its annual forecasts, helped by steady demand for packaged meat products such as bacon, ham, sausages and hot dogs.

U.S. meat demand has held up in recent months as consumers look to cut food bills and cook more meals at home.

The company has relied on its broad portfolio, including premium brands and private-label packaged meats, to retain budget-conscious shoppers trading down, while growth in higher-margin, value‑added packaged meats has helped support profits.

Private-label products accounted for roughly 40% of Smithfield’s retail sales in the last fiscal year, its executives said in March.

Beef costs have remained elevated due to tight cattle supplies, prompting companies such as Smithfield Foods to raise prices to protect margins.

Sales in Smithfield’s packaged meats segment rose 6.2% during the quarter from last year, offsetting a 1.1% slip in the fresh pork business.

The largest U.S. pork processor, which makes packaged meats and fresh pork products for retail and foodservice customers, maintained its annual forecasts as consumer-facing companies remain wary of renewed inflation concerns linked to higher energy prices.

“We are actively managing inflationary input costs and consumer spending trends,” CEO Shane Smith said.

It expects fiscal 2026 sales to grow in the low-single-digits range from fiscal year 2025 and adjusted operating profit between $1.33 billion and $1.48 billion.

The company has been able to lower feed costs and scale down hog production, which have also helped cushion the impact of cautious consumer spending.

For the three months ended March 29, Smithfield logged sales of $3.80 billion, beating analysts’ average estimates of $3.70 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

It earned 64 cents per share on an adjusted basis, above estimates of 59 cents.

(Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)

Hog Market Outlook: Why Dave Delaney Sees a Summer Rally and Undervalued Futures

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:51:30 GMT

Is the hog market tighter than the data suggest? Ever.Ag’s Dave Delaney joined AgriTalk to break down why disease outbreaks are curbing supply despite record-setting productivity in healthy herds. From “red hot” feeder pig prices to a predicted summer rally, Delaney explains why the October board may be significantly undervalued and why he is looking as far ahead as 2027 to lock in “huge” profit margins.

Slaughter Trends and Supply

Although USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs report expected a 2% increase in supply in 2026, year-to-date slaughter is only up 0.5% (when adjusted for slaughter days). However, Delaney expects higher slaughter numbers over the next few weeks.

“I think the next three to four weeks, we’re likely going to slaughter more than we did a year ago,” he says. “Part of that is some lagging finish hogs that were health challenged, and the growing weather here the last month has been extremely good. I think we’re pulling ahead some.”

The “Health Narrative” Tightens Supply

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) continue to cause significant litter losses and death loss in some systems.

“With PRRS, we don’t know what to expect. But with PED, you get that in the sow farm, and that’s a period of loss of litters and loss of pigs,” Delaney says. “When you combine those two, and some of the variation of strains and the strength of these strains, it’s gotten pretty bad.”

The supply tightness is reflected in “red-hot” prices, Flory points out. With 40-lb. feeder pigs hitting $125, and wean pigs trading roughly $31.50 higher than this time last year, Delaney agrees the health situation has tightened things up.

Productivity vs. Disease

The market is currently sending conflicting signals: high death loss in some barns versus a USDA report showing record pigs saved per litter. Delaney says both are true.

Delaney says there is definitely a “balancing act” occurring between record-high pigs saved per litter in healthy systems and the significant losses in health-challenged systems.

“The genetics we have in place continue to get better, and we see our production numbers continue to climb forward,” he explains. “Those systems not affected by health issues are pushing out numbers of pigs the last three weeks. It’s a balancing act. Does the bad overtake the good or the good overtake the bad? That’s something we face within this industry every day.”

Summer Rally Ahead?

Delaney is optimistic about summer prices, predicting a rally that could last through September. He specifically points to the October lean hog futures as being “way undervalued.”

“I think we’re going to have the ability to put in some solid hedges with triple digits in October, and that probably comes on the heels of when we get extremely short July to August,” Delaney says.

He says the current market structure where June settles below July and August trades at a premium to July is a pattern he expects to repeat.

What Delaney Watches in the Hog Market

Hog weights have been a little “erratic,” but he expects them to show the typical seasonal decline as summer heat approaches.

“The growing conditions and healthy herds have helped us,” Delaney says. “Growers open barns up and say, ‘Oh my goodness, these things average 308? I didn’t expect that.’”

He is keeping a close eye on kill levels now, watching the aggressiveness or lack of aggressiveness of packers.

“We’ve got a few packers that are out searching here every day,” Delaney says. “When multiple packers call on a Monday wanting pigs for Friday, rather than a week ahead, that’s going to be our first sign this thing’s tightening up.”

And on the backside of that, he’s paying attention to the cutout and the demand factor.

“Right now our demand is good, but it just feels steady right now,” he says.

Risk Management Strategy

Will the grilling season help? Flory says if American consumers get even more beef hungry than they already are, the beef market is going to be “on fire.”

Delaney remains cautious about locking in prices too early. He is waiting for a seasonal rise in fundamentals to re-establish hedges at higher levels.

“We had the opportunity once to put in some summer hedges at pretty good levels that were same or above year ago,” he says. “We’re looking at pulling hedges off and reestablishing it at higher prices. My thought process here short term is flat and steadyish, maybe a seasonal little incremental rise in the fundamentals.”

Delaney is looking as far out as the summer of 2027, noting that the projected margins available for producers are “huge.”

5 Million-Strong Coalition Urges Congress to Fix Prop 12 in Farm Bill

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 15:27:33 GMT

With 5 million members between them, the National Pork Producers Council and the American Farm Bureau Federation led a coalition urging Congress to provide regulatory certainty for farmers across the country forced to comply with California Proposition 12.

The coalition of nearly 400 agricultural groups sent a letter to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), detailing robust arguments opposing the extraterritorial state law.

“The massive problems caused by Prop 12 cannot be solved via regulation or executive order—it is solely Congress’ authority and responsibility to provide a solution, as noted in the 2023 U.S. Supreme Court decision,” the coalition says. “Prop 12 has created uncertainty across rural America, especially on small and medium-sized farms, as they have less financial ability to retrofit barns to comply with the restrictive law.”

NPPC points out that there is significant bipartisan willingness to fix Prop 12.

Trump administration Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said, “[Proposition 12] is not just affecting California. It’s affecting multitudes of other states, multitudes of other parts of the ag community, including our hog family farms.”
Biden administration Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said, “California’s Proposition 12 is not a narrow issue, nor is it a regional one. It goes to the heart of whether farmers across the country can operate under consistent, responsible, science-based standards—or be subject to a shifting patchwork of mandates they cannot control and cannot afford. When I served as Secretary of Agriculture the Supreme Court of the United States made clear, resolving these interstate challenges is the responsibility of Congress. I encouraged Congress to act then, and I am again encouraging Congress to act now. The farm bill presents a clear and immediate opportunity to provide that certainty and uphold the principles that have long sustained American agriculture and the affordability of our food supply.”

Prop 12 and similar laws do not improve animal welfare and lack scientific evidence, NPPC adds.

The American Veterinary Medical Association said, “the arbitrary housing requirements in Prop 12 do not objectively improve animal welfare and may unintentionally cause harm.”
Prop 12 sets the stage for an unworkable 50-state patchwork of laws.
A proposal in Oklahoma would increase housing requirements beyond Prop 12. This means that pork producers nationwide, regardless of whether they have converted to be Prop 12-compliant, would yet again be out of compliance to access another state market.

It’s undeniable that farmers’ costs to house their animals are increasing, NPPC says.

Multiple university studies show that constructing new, Prop 12-compliant barns can cost 25% to 40% more per sow than other housing styles, not including the estimated 15% higher operating costs per pig caused by reduced productivity.

Prop 12 is responsible for declining food affordability as grocery story pork prices are skyrocketing, NPPC reports.

North Dakota State University economists found that since Prop 12 was implemented, prices for covered products in California have increased nearly 20% on average.
Prop 12 leads to pork industry consolidation, as smaller farms close their doors because of the regulatory burdens and high costs of complying with Prop 12.
AFBF economists analyzed the impact of state laws on interstate commerce in a recent Market Intel . According to a study by the University of California’s Gianni Foundation, the impact of the higher prices on people’s pork purchases, with California’s share of consumption falling from 10% of all U.S. pork to 8% when Proposition 12 took full effect on Jan. 1, 2024.
Ultimately, consumers pay the bill for the disruption caused by these laws. Farmers are price-takers, not price-makers, the Market Intel report says. A farmer who has invested in complying with laws like Proposition 12 is at the mercy of a packer to pay a premium for a product they can sell in Massachusetts or California - though even that premium may not cover the farmer’s costs. When packers pay farmers more, they likely pass that cost on to retailers, who then charge shoppers more for pork.

This coalition, representing more than 5 million Americans, urges passage of the 2026 House Farm Bill to “protect everyone’s freedom to farm while also allowing states to act independently by allowing laws that regulate practices and impact commerce within their borders.”

A full House floor vote is expected for late April/early May.

NPPC to USTR: Trade Policy Should Support, Not Stifle, American Ag

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:30:15 GMT

As the Trump administration imposes tariffs on countries in response to their unfair trade practices, the National Pork Producers (NPPC) urges a cautious approach. Negative consequences often follow such duties, in particular NPPC points out retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including pork.

“NPPC is asking USTR to ‘carefully’ target trade remedies only at products where foreign government intervention has created excess capacity that is immune to market correction,” NPPC says. “NPPC also wants USTR to exclude agricultural equipment and components and inputs from tariffs to avoid inflating domestic production costs.”

The Impact of Section 301 Tariffs

The challenges caused by nations using forced labor and fostering overcapacity of products and subsequently subsidizing exports are undeniable, NPPC points out in comments submitted to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. NPPC also acknowledged the administration’s use of Section 301 tariffs as a way to protect domestic manufacturers of, for example, steel, aluminum, and semiconductors.

The U.S. pork industry historically has been the primary target in trade disputes involving manufacturing, NPPC says.

“Pork is a high-value commodity on which trading partners often impose retaliatory duties ‘to exert maximum political pressure on the U.S. government’ to back off its tariffs,” NPPC wrote.

Using Section 301 tariffs as a permanent trade architecture creates uncertainty, which stifles long-term business planning and investment, NPPC adds.

“Section 301 was designed to enforce U.S. rights under trade agreements and encourage negotiations, not to serve as a permanent tax on imports,” the oganization says.

Section 301 tariffs directly inflate input costs for a U.S. crop sector that is already struggling with high costs and low market returns, they shared in the comments.

“U.S. farmers rely heavily on modern pesticides to protect their crops from diseases, weeds, and insects, ensuring strong yields and a reliable supply of food, fiber, and fuel,” the comments say. “The manufacturing of these crop protection products relies on highly complex, global supply chains, with final formulated products often containing dozens of active and inert chemical ingredients. Although some specific pesticide ingredients have received tariff exemptions, many crucial active and inert ingredients remain subject to Section 301 tariffs, making it significantly more expensive for companies to manufacture and deliver vital products to American farmers.”

When grain prices rise, so do the costs to produce pork and pork products, NPPC explains. In the end, these increased costs threaten farmer incomes, crop quality and the economic health of rural communities.

Positive Investments Instead of Punitive Tariffs

Imposing of U.S. tariffs can prompt retaliatory duties on American goods, NPPC says.

For example, trade disputes with China in 2018-2019, saw that country respond to U.S. 301 tariffs (and Section 232 duties) with tariffs on U.S. pork of 62% to 70%. This resulted in an estimated annualized loss of nearly $646 million in exports.

It’s also difficult and costly to regain market share in a country once a trading partner responds to U.S. tariffs by sourcing pork from U.S. competitors such as Brazil or the European Union, even after the tariffs have been lifted, the organization says.

“If the U.S. government’s overarching goal is to strengthen domestic agricultural supply chains and manufacturing, it should replace punitive tariffs with positive investment strategies, “NPPC wrote. “These strategies should include tax credits, low-to-no-interest loans for capital investment, grant programs for workforce training to bring innovative, domestically manufactured products to the U.S. market.”

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $64.27, Up $3.23 From Last Week

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 18:55:14 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 24 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $64.27, up $3.23 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.29 per head, and October futures increased $1.68 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $90.38.

(Nutriquest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 89,100 head being reported which is 121% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $76.23, down $2.08 from a week ago. The low to high range was $67 to $90. Cash prices were 84.41% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were down $3.93 this week at $62.61.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 29,040 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $117.02, down $3.29 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 24.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $5.31 this week to a projected loss of $11.96 per head.

(Nutriquest
)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

How Geopolitical Disruption is Tightening Pork Supply Chain Margins

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 20:22:40 GMT

Indirect effects from geopolitical disruption are increasing cost pressures across pork supply chains, even as near term supply and demand remain stable, says Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst with RaboResearch, in the latest RaboResearch’s Global Pork Quarterly. Second- and third-order effects from energy, logistics and feed markets are becoming the defining risks for pork producers and traders in 2026.

1. Global pork markets face growing indirect cost pressures.

Although global pork markets entered the second quarter with generally stable supply-demand fundamentals, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty across costs, trade and consumption, McCracken says. Even though direct exposure to the conflict in the Middle East is limited, margins across the sector are tightening from higher energy prices, logistics disruption and fertilizer-driven feed risks.

“Feed markets remain relatively well supplied after strong global harvests, keeping near-term costs contained,” she explains. “Yet rising energy prices and improving biofuel economics are pushing oilseed markets higher, gradually eroding feed affordability.”

The result is increasingly cautious hog producers, especially in regions facing disease challenges or high capital costs. It’s also affecting packers with higher costs for energy, packaging and logistics that will likely get passed on to consumers.

2. Consumer caution is rising in some markets.

Consumers are being cautious, too. The heightened global uncertainty is resulting in cautious consumer spending in some markets. McCracken says inflationary pressures are just beginning and may weigh more heavily on purchases in the coming months. Pork availability should remain steady and affordable for most consumers, but she warns that demand could soften as households look to economize.

“We expect consumers to take a more cautious approach to spending in the coming months. Foodservice sales and spending on premium products will likely see the greatest initial impact, and total spending on proteins is expected to decline as consumers work to manage their overall spending,” McCracken says.

She believes pork sales could see a modest benefit as consumers shift to in-home food preparation and trading down to pork as a value protein. As a whole, the protein segment is expected to come under modest pressure.

3. Markets face disease-related disruptions and trade frictions.

The devastating effect of diseases such as African swine fever (ASF) continue to slow production and add costs for the global swine industry. However, the industry is making improvements in the detection and control of disease spread. For example, the Philippines has reported a sharp drop in the number of ASF cases in Q1 2026, with the number of affected regions falling from nine to three, she says. Industry repopulation efforts remain slow due to high costs and limited financial support.

“As a result, supply in some markets remains tight, producers increasingly rely on the remaining herd and increasing productivity gains, and import volumes are rising to meet market needs,” McCracken says. “But shifting alignments and rising geopolitical turmoil are creating incremental trade frictions, bringing the potential for more protectionist trade policies that could impact the cost of key inputs, especially in the animal feed, equipment and animal health industries.”

Introducing Feed4Profit: A Smarter Way to Compare Feeding Programs

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 18:49:40 GMT

A new Iowa State University financial modeling tool helps swine producers analyze the profitability of feeding programs and make data-driven nutrition decisions.

As feed prices fluctuate, policies change, and production challenges arise, swine producers need new digital tools to make informed, cost-effective decisions. The Swine Applied Innovations Laboratory at Iowa State University, led by David Rosero, is developing innovative solutions in the areas of livability, nutrition, and smart farming.

One of those solutions is Feed4Profit, a publicly available online tool designed to help producers and nutritionists analyze ingredient costs and make informed feeding decisions that can help them maximize profit per pig. Users can design feeding programs with different ingredients, model the performance response of pigs, and compare the forecasted income and feed costs over a 12-month period, based on future price estimates.

Typically, feed accounts for up to 75% of the total cost of producing a pig, making flexible ingredient sourcing and feeding program adjustments critical as input prices fluctuate. Feed4Profit can help producers monitor feed costs and maximize profit throughout the growing and finishing phases.

Seasonal changes in pig performance are one example of how nutritional strategies can impact profitability.

“Nutritionists often talk about the summer carcass weight dip as an opportunity to capture dollars when market prices are typically at their highest,” said Rosero. “This tool can help producers analyze the financial impacts of adjusting feeding programs while still meeting minimum nutritional requirements.”

Currently, the tool has two pre-loaded feeding programs available for comparison, with the ability to customize ingredients, nutrient requirements, and weight ranges for different growing phases. Future updates will allow users to create and save custom diets, expanding the tool’s flexibility and usefulness for individual operations.

For more information or questions about this tool, contact David Rosero at dsrosero@iastate.edu .

The Producer’s Toolbox: 5 Essential Economic Skills for Future Swine Producers

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 17:49:36 GMT

The typical swine producer wears many hats, managing animals, employees, facilities, finances and markets. With such a wide range of responsibilities, preparing the next generation requires more than teaching day to day skills, it demands building a broad and adaptable professional toolkit. One essential skill set to add to that toolbox is economic reasoning and analysis.

Economics is often misunderstood. It’s sometimes confused with accounting or finance, or treated as a catch all term for anything involving business or money. In reality, economics is the science of how we use resources, and how to put those finite resources to better use. Just as an engine converts fuel into energy, economics views farms as systems that transform inputs into more desirable outputs. Capital, labor, land and other resources enter the system and emerge as food. In this framework, money isn’t a product; it’s merely a unit of measurement, much like horsepower or torque.

With that foundation in mind, here are five key economic concepts every future producer should understand.

1. Profit

When we view the farm as a transformation system, profit becomes the measure of how efficiently that system operates. If more output is created than inputs used, the farm is operating efficiently. It’s also important to remember that profit is relative. A farm is successful not just because it earns a surplus, but because it earns more per pig than its peers. In a competitive environment, the more efficient survive.

2. Opportunity Cost

If profit measures efficiency, opportunity cost measures what could have been. It’s the tool that helps determine whether a farm is operating at peak efficiency. Opportunity cost shows up in two ways. First, in decision making: if the farm reinvests $100,000 in one project, all alternative uses of that money disappear. Those lost alternatives need to be weighed against the chosen path. Second, opportunity cost emerges as lost potential, often from disease or errors like feed outages. Opportunity costs represent real losses. Even if they don’t appear in QuickBooks, they are just as impactful and often twice as dangerous because they can go unnoticed.

3. Modeling

Modeling turns concepts into insight and insight into action. A model is simply a structured description of reality. For instance, projecting a pig’s weight based on starting weight and ADG is a basic model. Models don’t need to be complicated, but they must be accurate. Start simple; once your model reliably reflects reality, you can expand it. Ultimately, a farm’s model should describe how profit is generated so opportunity cost can be evaluated with confidence.

4. Risk Analysis

Once a profit model is established, it’s time to test extremes. Ask “what if?” What if pig prices fall to a 20 year low? What if disease severely impacts performance? The goal isn’t to find breakeven points but to identify critical failure thresholds. Knowing those limits helps determine the most likely threats and how to mitigate them.

5. Variation

Risk analysis reveals a fundamental truth: averages rarely reflect reality. Weather, markets, and biological systems constantly change, making variation, not the average, the norm. Understanding and measuring variation opens new paths to improve efficiency. Variation often has disproportionate effects on profitability. A 10% change in a parameter rarely results in a 10% change in profit, due to how pigs are valued and how performance changes cascade through the system.

With these skills, tomorrow’s producers will be better equipped to meet, and exceed, the challenges ahead, positioning themselves to consistently achieve above average profits.

Lance Mulberry is an economist with KnowledgeVentures, LLC. He consults with producers, processors, pharmaceutical companies, genetics firms, nutrition, and technology providers throughout the global pork chain.

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $61.04, Down $10.06 From Last Week

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:29:45 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and breakeven pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 17 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $61.04, down $10.06 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.91 per head, and October futures decreased $1.70 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is declined from last week by $2.66 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in breakeven considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $87.15.

(Nutriquest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 82,860 head being reported which is 113% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $78.31, down $2.68 from a week ago. The low to high range was $67 to $92. Cash prices were 86.70% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $3.18 this week at $66.54.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 22,950 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $120.31, down $6.25 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 17, 2026.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $7.38 this week to a projected loss of $17.27 per head.

(Nutriquest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $71.10, Down $0.59 from Last Week

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 18:13:31 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 10 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in September 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $71.10, down $0.59 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.07 per head, and October futures decreased $0.25 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “Margin over variable costs,” which is $97.21.

(Nutriquest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 85,000 head being reported which is 118% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $80.99, up $0.91 from a week ago. The low to high range was $68 to $95. Cash prices were 88.71% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were down $1.76 this week at $63.36.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 21,800 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $126.56, up $0.09 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

Nutriquest

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 10.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $1.50 this week to a projected loss of $9.89 per head.

(Nutriquest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest.NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com .

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $71.69, Down $9.36 from Last Week

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 18:06:40 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and breakeven pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 3, 2026 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in September 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $71.69, down $9.36 for the week. Feed costs were down $1.04 per head, and October futures decreased $0.85 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is declined from last week by $4.10 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $97.80.

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 86,600 head being reported which is 121% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $80.08, down $1.01 from a week ago. The low to high range was $71 to $95. Cash prices were 87.19% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $1.63 this week at $65.12.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 23,489 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $126.47, down $0.20 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(World Pork Expo)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 3.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $8.35 this week to a projected loss of $8.39 per head.

(NutriQuest)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $81.05, Down $4.68 from Last Week

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 18:25:16 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on March 27 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in September 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $81.05, up $4.68 for the week. Feed costs were down $0.80 per head, and October futures increased $1.85 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “Margin over variable costs,” which is $107.16.

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 96,970 head being reported which is 137% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $81.09, down $7.97 from a week ago. The low to high range was $62 to $100. Cash prices were 88.77% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were down $0.45 this week at $63.49.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 30,815 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $126.67, down $0.69 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through March 27.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $12.65 this week to a projected loss of $0.04 per head.

(NutriQuest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

March Hogs and Pigs Report: Record Litter Rates Offset Smallest Breeding Herd Since 2014

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 23:18:49 GMT

The total hogs and pigs inventory in the March 1 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report was 74.3 million head, up 0.4% last year and a little below analysts’ pre-report estimates.

“These quarterly reports always help us reset our market expectations,” says economist Lee Schulz during a webinar hosted by the National Pork Board. “We have a quarter’s worth of slaughter data, production data and demand data that comes at us, and this gives us a chance to reevaluate those expectations.”

He praised the December Hogs and Pigs Report for being “spot on.”

“USDA only missed by 6,000 head,” Schulz says. “That’s astonishing, given that we slaughter about a half a million head a day ... that margin of error was very small. I think that gives us a little more confidence as we look at this latest report and how those market hog inventories may play out over the next six months.”

He notes numbers in this report are close to a year ago .

“I think one interpretation of the market is that we’re not seeing larger supplies now, but we’re also not seeing shrinking supplies,” Schulz explains. “Relative to pre-report expectations, overall we would see tighter levels than what those pre-report expectations would tell us. Now, how much and for how long our markets react to that is to be debated.”

A Look at the Numbers

The total inventory for all hogs and pigs on March 1 was 74.3 million head, up slightly from a year ago, and down 1% from Dec. 1, 2025.

The market hog inventory on March 1 was 68.4 million, up 1% from 2025 but down 2% from the previous quarter. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 53% of the total U.S. hog inventory on March 1, up 1% from 2025.

The breeding inventory came in at 5.89 million head, down 1% from a year ago, and down slightly from Dec. 1. The December 2025 to February 2026 pig crop, at 33.2 million head, was up 1% from 2025. The number of sows that farrowed during this three-month period was down 1% from 2025 at 2.79 million head, which represents 47% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.90 for the December 2025 through February 2026 period, compared to 11.65 last year.

U.S. hog producers intend to farrow 2.86 million sows during the March through May 2026 quarter, up slightly from the actual sows farrowing during the same period in 2025, but down 2% from the same period in 2024. Intended sows farrowing for June through August 2026, at 2.90 million sows, are down 2% from the same period in 2025, and down 3% from the same period in 2024.

“Revisions were very minor from the December report,” Schulz says. “I think that’s really important, because if there’s not a lot of revisions to the report, that means that there’s not a lot of moving parts when we think about how to interpret the report, as well as how the market may react to the report.”

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2025 through December 2025 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss and updated import and export data. The revision made to the December 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.2%. The net revision made to the September 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.3%. A net revision of 2.8% was made to the June-August 2025 pig crop.

A Smaller Breeding Herd with Record Productivity

The breeding herd came in 1.5% below March 2025 levels, a larger contraction than analysts expected. Schulz notes this is the smallest March 1 breeding herd since 2014.

“The size of the breeding herd makes sense relative to the slaughter data,” he says. “We’ve seen an annualized slaughter rate of 48.5% that is lower than what the five-year average is, but you did see some notably large slaughter culling rates back in 2020, 2023 and 2024 but it is higher than we’ve seen over the 10-year average. That is indicative that there is still some contraction in the industry.”

Despite a smaller herd, productivity continues to climb and offset some of that contraction. Litter rates jumped 2.1% year over year, setting new records, Schulz says.

“It’s like when you start setting records in a race,” he says. “You don’t set records by a really large gap; usually it’s by milliseconds. What the latest litter rate data would say is, again, we’re jumping back up to setting those records by a wide margin.”

According to the report, producers intend to farrow fewer sows in the coming quarters compared to previous estimates. He says this is likely due to the shrinking breeding herd and market uncertainty.

Is There an Incentive to Add Weight?

Schulz points out that hog slaughter is down 0.9% year to date, according to the latest data. However, he says it’s important to remember this is unadjusted data.

“We need to adjust for slaughter days, which can change interpretation here,” he says. “Yes, hog slaughter is down 0.9% year over year, but we’re not necessarily comparing apples to apples.”

When adjusting for slaughter days, it shows that slaughter is actually up compared to 2025 year to date, depending on the metric that you like to use, Schulz explains. Weekly slaughter would suggest slaughter is up about 0.5% since the beginning of the year.

“I would really encourage you when we make some of these comparisons, when we’re looking at slaughter levels, when we’re helping benchmark the Hogs and Pigs Report, know what you’re comparing,” he says. “I like to use the daily data adjusted for slaughter days, or it’s pretty easy to use the weekly data, and that helps smooth out some of those comparisons year over year.”

Market weights are roughly 2 lb. heavier than 2025 levels. Low feed costs and available finishing capacity provide a strong incentive for producers to add weight, he says.

Profitability Outlook

Cash prices for weaned and feeder pigs are at or near record levels, signaling strong demand for barn space and optimism regarding forward margins, Schulz says.

Costs remain elevated, roughly 31% higher than in 2020, driven by inflationary pressures on non-feed variables.

The forecasted average profit for 2026 is approximately $15 per head. While positive, Schulz emphasizes that producers are still in a “healing” phase for their balance sheets after the heavy losses of 2023 and 2024.

“Favorable margins with some upside are possible, but there’s notable downside potential based on historical levels,” he says. “During the 2016-2026 period, the range in profits was -$57.97 to $57.31. During the 2016-2025 period, 60% of months were profitable and 40% were unprofitable.”

Over the 74 months since 2020, the average per head marketed is $2 per head, according to the most recent actual data in February 2026.

“Balance sheets continue to recover,” Schulz says. “As you think about where these inventories are in the latest Hogs & Pigs Report, the 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd and not a whole lot of growth in the inventories, I think this is a bit indicative we’re still healing some of those balance sheets out there.”

The Tenderloin King: How Jeff Buckler Achieved the American Dream

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 20:59:58 GMT

Hard work never bothered Jeff Buckler. But after selling commercial tires for 28 years in central Illinois, his body began to wear down. After several rotator cuff surgeries and a hernia surgery, he knew he couldn’t take it much longer. The tire business was shifting, and he found himself getting more buried in paperwork than working with customers.

“I thought I’d die selling tires,” he says. “But it just wasn’t fun anymore. One of my friends owned a chain of local bars and grills. He told me, ‘If you work half as hard for yourself as you do for other people, you’ll be successful.’”

Buckler decided to take his friend’s advice. In 2017, he purchased one of his friend’s bars. Despite never having cooked professionally, he learned the basics and eventually started experimenting with his own recipes.

Not long after, his motorcycle club was looking for a clubhouse. They found a building in Sadorus and the owner told them if they fixed it up, he’d cut them the first six months of rent cheap. The plan for every member of the club to come in and help run it. Buckler says that lasted about three months before they had to hire people to help run it.

“I was doing all the work scheduling people and ordering food,” he says. “Finally, the club president said it was only fair to sell it to me if I wanted it.”

He opened Buford’s Pub on Dec. 16, 2018.

Precision Engineering: The Two-Pound Tenderloin

During a trip to the grocery store one day, Buckler ran across some fresh breaded tenderloins. He decided to take one home and try it out.

“It was good,” he says. “I went back and asked the managers for 10 more of them. Then, I went back in for 10 more, then 20, 30 and when I asked for 40, the butcher told me he didn’t have the manpower to make that many. So, he took me back into his kitchen and showed me how to cut them and tenderize them.”

The butcher also shared his special seasoning recipe that Buckler has modified over time.

“People started going crazy over them,” Buckler says. “The next thing I knew, we were posted on the Pursuing Pork Tenderloin Sandwiches page on Facebook, it has nearly 175,000 members who talk about tenderloins and where to find the best ones.”

One of the things he learned from the page was that the bigger the tenderloin, the better the lure to customers. He started making the tenderloins a little bigger each time until he landed on a 2-lb. tenderloin. But he says there are some 3-lb. tenderloins in the mix, too. They weigh each tenderloin and serve it with a trademark flag that notes the tenderloin’s weight.

Sales continued to grow until the pandemic struck in 2020. Buckler pivoted to serve the massive tenderloins in tin pans because none of their Styrofoam containers were big enough for these to-go orders. This became the brand’s signature.

“If you see a tenderloin in a tin pan on social media, there’s a 9 out of 10 chance it’s ours,” Buckler says.

Outperforming the Competition

The Pursuing Pork Tenderloin Sandwiches page has helped turn Buford’s into a destination. People drive from across the state and even from other states like Florida and Minnesota or just to try one. That’s how the Illinois Pork Producers Association discovered this tasty tenderloin in a town of 400 people.

“When Mikayla Schaefer called to tell me we won the 2026 Best Pork Tenderloin Sandwich in Illinois, it was mind-boggling,” Buckler says. “I still tear up. It’s hard to talk about because I never consider my stuff to be the best. That’s not who I am. I dream to be the best, but I also know everyone has different taste buds, so I don’t put too much weight in trying to chase favor. ”

Wible says this first-ever Breaded Pork Tenderloin Draft competition was designed to spotlight hand-breaded pork tenderloin sandwiches served at restaurants across Illinois. After multiple rounds of voting and a final panel sorting out the top five tenderloins, Buford’s Pub was named the champion .

That came as no surprise to Buford’s customers. Laura Smith, a long-time fan of Buford’s Pub, says she loves how Buford’s brings in people from all over to the small town of Sadorus.

“The tenderloin at Buford’s is delicious and the size is amazing,” Smith says. “I love that they use fresh ingredients and it is always coked just right. Also, everyone is always so friendly and helpful when you go in there to eat.”

How Do You Make the “Perfect” Tenderloin?

In the past year alone, Buford’s has sold nearly 10,000 pork tenderloins. He says they’ve sold up to 96 tenderloins in one day. Because of this demand, he went from buying pork by the case to buying it by the pallet. He also needed more space to make the tenderloins and built a USDA-certified kitchen in nearby Arthur.

Buckler’s process has been perfected over time and starts with a loin that’s approximately 7 to 8 lb. He says the smaller ones are also fine. The challenge is when the loins get too big.

“I prefer the medium size ones, where they’re short and fat, so I can cut a nice, 6”x8” piece of meat,” he says. “We use all of it. We are going to make a smaller pub cut now for bars looking to cook one in a pizza oven. We also offer a mini tenderloin at Buford’s in addition to our traditional big tenderloin.”

Once he trims the fat off the loin, he tenderizes it using a Hobart 403 machine and seasons it. He says the “secret” to his tenderloin is that he marinades them in a buttermilk-egg mixture for 24 hours. Then, he breads them with a seasoned cracker meal so it gets double-seasoned.

Juan Molina has worked at Buford’s Pub for two years. He points out that most restaurants just cut the tenderloins, pound them out by hand, bread them and throw them in a deep fryer.

“The way Jeff tenderizes them allows that marinade to really soak into the meat, so you’re not losing moisture when you pound them out,” Molina says.

He also says the thickness of Buford’s tenderloins also makes them better because they have more meat. Getting the tenderloin cooked just right is also key. Every tenderloin is timed and temperature-checked on three different sides before it leaves the kitchen, Buckler says.

Hitting the Road in the Name of Pork

One of the reasons Buckler chose to make his kitchen USDA-certified is because he plans to sell his popular breaded tenderloins to other bars and possibly even larger companies like Sysco.

“There’s nothing like our 2-lb. tenderloins on the market,” he says. “I think this would be a great product for someone looking for something different to feature. Some people have even expressed interest in using them as a pizza crust.”

Molina will be hitting the road soon promoting these tenderloins. He is optimistic about this opportunity to grow the business.

“I’ll come to Buford’s and help whenever they need help,” says Molina who has also served as one of the cooks. “But my focus is getting this tenderloin pushed out. As long as Jeff wants to go after the big fish, I’m ready to go fishing.”

An American Dream Fulfilled

Early mornings, late nights and continually striving for excellence have been key to the growing success of Buford’s Pub. And, of course, a good menu with delicious offerings is important, too. Although his tenderloins get a lot of attention, Buckler’s pulled pork nachos are very popular.

He serves a lot of pork on the menu because it’s tasty and versatile. By using one pork product for multiple things, it also takes up less space in the freezer and allows them to use it all up.

“Pork is so good,” Buckler says. “I feel like it’s underrated for how good it is, but that may be because people don’t know how to cook it very well.”

Buckler sees the tenderloin distribution business as his “retirement.” He’s excited to focus on innovating and supplying high-quality, USDA-approved tenderloins to other establishments.

“Being successful is about doing stuff other people don’t do,” he says. “I never dreamt years ago when I was just starting to make them that we’d be here today selling hundreds a week. I can’t try again for the Illinois tenderloin title for another five years, but goals for the future, right?”

Buckler may have thought he’d die selling tires, but in the quiet town of Sadorus, he’s proving the American Dream is still possible.

Editor’s Note: As a Sadorus resident, Farm Journal’s PORK brand leader Jennifer Shike can testify to the incredible pork tenderloins and pulled pork nachos at Buford’s Pub. Try it out for yourself 109 E. Market Street in Sadorus.

Can’t make the drive but want to try a tenderloin? Visit https://bufordstenderloin.com/ .

Feed Cost Surge from Iran War Deepens Pain for China's Pig Farmers

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:34:17 GMT

Rising grain prices fueled by the Iran war are lifting animal feed costs in China, the world’s biggest pig market, piling pressure on producers already hit by weak demand and hog prices at 16-year lows.

Since the start of the war on February 28, futures for soymeal and corn - two key feed ingredients - have climbed to multi-month highs on the Dalian exchange, driven in part by the oil price rally, higher freight rates and rising fertilizer costs, two analysts said.

In March, spot prices for soymeal and corn in China have risen by over 200 yuan per ton and around 100 yuan per ton - 7% and 4% respectively - increasing real-time feed costs.

Prices for other inputs, including lysine and methionine - essential amino acids - as well as fishmeal and vitamins A and E have risen between 6% and 77% this month due to the war, according to Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.

“Prices for most raw materials used in animal feed have experienced a significant increase in March, partly driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” said Lin Guofa, senior analyst at consultancy Bric Agriculture Group.

Overcapacity and Weak Demand

Chinese hog producers, who account for half of the world’s pigs, are grappling with higher costs even as they contend with falling pork prices due to overcapacity and weak demand.

China’s most-active hog futures contract DLHcv1 fell to a contract low of 9,980 yuan ($1,448.16) per ton on Monday. Cash prices tumbled to 9.69 yuan per kg - the lowest in 16 years, according to JCI.

“Raising a hog that weighs about 60-62.5 kg currently costs 12.2-12.5 yuan per kg. This means farmers lose 280-350 yuan for each pig they sell,” said Lin.

Plunging Hog Prices, Negative Margins

Smaller farmers, who account for less than 30% of China’s pig production, risk being pushed out of business as they are especially vulnerable to price swings, analysts said.

“For small farmers now, either you sell your pigs cheap or you grit your teeth and bear it, get through this price drop, and then wait for the pig price to rebound,” said Fu Zhenzhen, feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants.

Li, a 600-head pig farmer in northern Hebei province, said he has been losing money since last year.

“We are being roasted by fire now. Pork prices are so low, but feed costs have jumped sharply in March,” Li said.

Since last year, Chinese authorities have intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity, urging breeders to cut sow numbers and manage slaughter rates, while recently buying frozen pork for state reserves to stabilize prices.

China’s sow herd totaled 39.61 million head at the end of December, remaining above the normal holding level of 39 million.

“Going forward, pork prices will mainly depend on how aggressively companies trim their herds,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

($1 = 6.8915 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Tony Munroe and Shri Navaratnam)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $76.37, Down $18.89 From Last Week

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 15:09:50 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on March 20 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in September 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $76.37, down $18.89 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.12 per head, and October futures decreased $1.63 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is declined from last week by $7.31 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $102.48.
Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was below average this week with 44,625 head being reported which is 64% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $89.06, down $0.61 from a week ago. The low to high range was $66 to $105. Cash prices were 97.61% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were down $14.69 this week at $63.94.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 15,945 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $127.36, up $1.30 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through March 20.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $18.28 this week to a projected loss of $12.69 per head.

(NutriQuest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Cuisine Over Cuts: Gen Z is Redefining the Future of Pork Demand

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 12:04:46 GMT

Forget the “meat and potatoes” model. For Gen Z and Millennial consumers, the question isn’t “What meat are we eating for dinner?” It’s “What cuisine are we having tonight?”

Whether it’s Mexican, Asian or Italian, this shift from “center-of-the-plate” to “pork-as-an-ingredient” is at the heart of National Pork Board’s (NPB) latest business intelligence.

“Consumers are multi-dimensional,” says Sarah Showalter, director of consumer and business insights at NPB. “Our goal is to provide a 360-degree view—not just understanding what they bought in the past but anticipating what they’ll crave in the future.”

The Protein Obsession

The demand for protein is growing and the way it’s consumed is evolving. According to the Numerator Protein Trends Report, 74% of millennials pay close attention to their protein intake, yet many feel they aren’t meeting their goals.

Crucially, 55% of these protein-aware consumers prefer sourcing that protein from “whole foods” like meat and dairy rather than powders or supplements, Showalter adds.

“We have a massive opportunity to show how heart-healthy cuts like pork loin and chops deliver 22 to 26 grams of protein,” Showalter says. “We’re meeting them where they are—on their phones and through social media—to make sure pork is the solution they reach for.”

The “Cuisine-First” Generation

Morgan Wonderly, an NPB member and lecturer at California Polytechnic State University–San Luis Obispo, sees this cultural shift every day on campus.

“Our students come from everywhere. Pork is central to their cultures—Filipino, Korean, Latino, Hawaiian,” Wonderly says. “Pork isn’t defined by one culture; it’s the versatile protein that fits them all.”

Flavor and nostalgia drive the love for many of these dishes, she adds.

“So how do we replicate those feelings in a college student’s world or in an on-the-go world?” Wonderly asks. “There are so many ways: carnitas or al pastor from a taco truck on campus, pork dumplings and rice takeout, or even making spaghetti with Italian sausage at home.”

Solving the “Hangry” Crisis

Convenience for these younger generations is defined by speed and “odd hours.” They are 49% more likely to use delivery apps, and they view the kitchen differently than their parents. In fact, there are now more air fryers in U.S. households than coffee makers—a major opportunity for quick-prep pork.

But convenience also extends outside the home. Wonderly, who coaches the livestock judging team at Cal Poly, often finds herself traveling with eight “starving” college students.

“If we’re in a hurry and I don’t want anyone getting ‘hangry,’ we skip the drive-thru and hit the gas station,” Wonderly says. “My go-to is a pork snack stick, cheese pack and a diet soda. My students do the same. Pork has a major opportunity to dominate the snack category with quick, high-protein options that require zero guesswork.”

The Bottom Line for Producers

The industry’s “Taste What Pork Can Do” campaign is built on this real-time data. Wonderly says investment in business intelligence is critical.

“We can be the most efficient pig farmers in the world,” Wonderly says. “We can have perfect health. We can have 12 piglets born alive on every sow and have a beautiful barn plow and produce tons of pigs. But if we don’t resonate with these younger consumers, we lose.”

Pork needs to be relatable, simple and affordable to ensure long-term demand, she adds. As the pork industry leans into these trends, Showalter believes there’s a great opportunity to innovate.

“We know that these younger consumers are not going to grow up to be their parents,” Showalter says. “They’re not going to grow up to look like Boomers and Gen X. We need to meet them where they are and show up differently to be relevant to them.”

One More Pound of Consumption: The $1.6 Billion Opportunity for Pork

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 20:16:19 GMT

What would happen if every American ate just one more pound of pork per year? David Newman, chief executive officer of the National Pork Board, says it’s worth approximately $1.6 billion of U.S. retail value.

“Do you believe that that’s possible?” Newman challenged delegates at the National Pork Industry Forum.

The math is straightforward. With approximately 345 million people in the U.S. and an average per capita consumption of 50 lb., he calculates that an incremental 1-pound increase—priced at the average retail rate of $4.70 per lb.—would result in a $1.6 billion surge for the industry.

To get there, Newman says the industry must stop thinking “one pig at a time” and start thinking “one pound at a time.” While U.S. producers are world leaders in production efficiency, Newman argues the next great horizon is domestic demand.

From “Push” to “Pull”

Newman points to South Korea as the “dream” benchmark. In South Korea, per capita consumption is 70 lb., representing a massive gap in untapped potential for the U.S. pork industry.

To achieve greater consumption in the U.S., he says the industry must move from a “push” strategy where the industry liquidates supply via low prices to a “pull” strategy where it creates a high desire for pork so consumers seek it regardless of price.

“You’ve got to increase the units per household,” he says. “We need more households buying more pork. It means you have to get more trips per year. Trips — literally trips — where they drive to the store, choose to buy pork and choose to drive back again.”

Currently, the average U.S. household makes fewer than 10 trips to the store per year to buy pork. One additional trip per household and consumers spending more money on pork can change the economic landscape. Not just for retailers, but for producers.

Is the New Campaign Working?

The “Taste What Pork Can Do” campaign is the engine behind this “pull” strategy. Launched in May 2025, early data show an incremental return on ad spend (I-ROAS) of $83. For every $1 of Checkoff investment, the campaign returned $83 in retail sales through December 2025, according to Numerator.

“As someone who has been in the business and looks at these numbers every day with our team, I’m also very cautious,” he says. “A one-to-four return is considered very good. $83 is a big number, a great start in our long-term demand efforts.”

To ensure these gains translate to the farm gate, the National Pork Board is developing the Pork Power Index, a new ROI measurement designed to tie retail success directly back to producer value. While the campaign is only 10 months old, Newman stressed that economic experts emphasize 40 months of data are needed to establish firm long-term trends.

The Hispanic Growth Engine

While the national campaign gains steam, a new parallel effort is launching to capture the Hispanic market—a $4 trillion demographic where pork is already a cultural staple. The campaign, “Explora todo el gusto del pork,” will target major hubs like Houston, Chicago, Phoenix, Dallas and Los Angeles with culturally specific messaging. It loosely translates to “explore all the flavors of pork,” which aligns with messaging around taste and flavor and the Taste What Pork Can Do campaign.

With a $4 trillion market and pork already at the cultural center of the community, the Hispanic population is viewed as the primary driver for future domestic growth, he adds.

A Transformational Time

Although the opportunity ahead of the pork industry is historic, Newman reminds producers it requires patience.

“It’s like trying to turn an aircraft carrier with a canoe paddle,” Newman says. “It takes time to shift this piece, but we have to believe we can do it.”

He urges producers not to radically shift strategies based on headlines but to allow the current data-driven campaigns time to work.

“Let’s encourage people to get fired up and believe in what we’re doing,” Newman says. “When we invest together, we can show the world exactly what pork can do.”

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $95.26, Down $5.03 From Last Week

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 14:34:28 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on March 13 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in August 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $95.26, down $5.03 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.56 per head, and October futures decreased $2.13 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $121.37.

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 88,851 head being reported which is 126% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $89.67, down $11.72 from a week ago. The low to high range was $74 to $118. Cash prices were 96.30% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $4.26 this week at $78.63.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 21,500 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $126.06, up $2.95 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through March 13.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $6.69 this week to a projected gain of $5.59 per head.

(NutriQuest)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $109.30, Up $2.64 From Last Week

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:41:40 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on Feb. 27 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in August 2026 using August 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $109.30, up $2.64 for the week. Feed costs were up $1.09 per head, and August futures increased $1.78 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $135.41.

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 85,350 head being reported which is 123% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $102.43, down $6.99 from a week ago. The low to high range was $84 to $124. Cash prices were 93.38% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $1.77 this week at $76.86.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 23,750 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $125.88, down $0.73 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through Feb. 27.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $9.63 this week to a projected gain of $6.87 per head.

(NutriQuest
)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

2025 U.S. Pork Export Performance: Key Statistics and Market Trends

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:09:57 GMT

U.S. pork exports reached significant milestones in 2025, recording the second-highest value and third-largest volume in history. According to data from the USDA and the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the year concluded with robust performance in Latin America and a late-year rebound in Asian markets.

Quick Facts: 2025 Pork Export Totals

Total Volume: 2.94 million metric tons (mt) — third largest on record.
Total Value: $8.4 billion — second highest on record.
Per Head Value: Approximately $65 for every animal slaughtered.
Variety Meat Contribution: 13% to 14% of total export value (approx. $1.1 billion).

What These Export Numbers Mean for U.S. Pork Producers

According to USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom, the export market adds significant value to the bottom line of domestic producers. The $65-per-head contribution is driven largely by products with low domestic demand, such as variety meats. In December alone, pork variety meat exports were valued at nearly $105 million, the highest level since March.

Top Performing Markets in 2025

The 2025 export story was defined by record-breaking demand in the Western Hemisphere and a recovery in the East:

Mexico: Remained the leading market with record-large volume and value.

Latin America: Achieved its second-largest value year ever, with record shipments to Central America and the Caribbean.

Colombia: Reached a new record in export value.

Asia: While down for the full year, markets in South Korea, Japan, ASEAN, and Taiwan saw a significant rebound in the second half of 2025.

Market Outlook for 2026

Despite a 3.5% year-over-year dip in December volume (257,846 mt), the industry remains well-positioned for growth. The late-year momentum in Asia and consistent demand from Mexico suggest a strong trajectory heading into 2026.

“The thing that doesn’t stand out here is that Asia, in the last half of the year, really started to pick up some ground,” Halstrom says. “They were down for the year. But if you remember, early last year, Asia was down quite a bit. In the last half of the year, we saw a rebound in Asia on pork as well. The pork side is well positioned going into 2026.”

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $106.67, Up $10.66 From Last Week

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:52:38 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on Feb. 20 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in August 2026 using August 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $106.67, up $10.66 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.53 per head, and August futures increased $3.53 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is improved from last week by $1.80 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $132.78.

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 85,835 head being reported which is 124% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $109.42, down $0.72 from a week ago. The low to high range was $88 to $125. Cash prices were 102.23% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $5.42 this week at $75.09.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 26,870 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $126.61, up $2.42 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through Feb. 20.

(NutriQuest
)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $11.38 this week to a projected loss of $2.75 per head.

(NutriQuest
)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Smithfield Foods Announces New Pork Processing Plant in South Dakota

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 03:46:33 GMT

Smithfield Foods announced a $1.3 billion investment over the next three years to build a new state of the art packaged meat and fresh pork processing facility in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

New Facility, New Location
Smithfield Food president and CEO Shane Smith says the plant will be located on the northwest edge of Sioux Falls in Foundation park and will replace their 115 year old downtown facility, which had become outdated.

He says the investment is contingent on securing the required permits and regulatory approvals, but the facility will be located at the intersection of two major interstates and provides rail access.

“The new facility will be the most modern of its kind in the U.S., featuring an advanced automation technology and IT systems. It will be the largest combined packaged meats and fresh pork processing facility in Smithfield’s network with more than 1.1 million square feet of production space and will deliver efficiency gains to Smithfield’s fresh pork and package meats operations.”

Smithfield Plant Packs Huge Economic Punch
Smith says this investment will have a huge economic impact on the region.

“We process more than 28 million hogs annually in the U.S. and 10,000 hog farms located in 30 states produce and raise the pigs that we harvest. The vast majority of the hogs that we process here in Sioux Falls are raised by independent hog producers in South Dakota and the surrounding states.”

Smithfield also purchases 130 million bushels of corn and wheat, and 1 million tons of soybean meal annually according to Smith. That accounts for almost 1% of the U.S. annual corn crop and 2% of the typical US soybean meal production.

Largest Business Investment in South Dakota History
South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden says the Smithfield project marks the largest business investment in the state’s history. He says food production and processing plays a vital role in South Dakota’s economy.

“The existing Smithfield facility in Sioux Falls currently processes right at 20,000 hogs per day. The new facility will increase that number and that’s good news for South Dakota pork producers and the entire region. This project will expand our producers market reach and it will drive economic activity across the state of South Dakota. So, it’s a huge win for agriculture in South Dakota.”

One of Sioux Falls Biggest Employers
Sioux Falls Mayor Paul TenHaken adds that the plant employs over 3,200 skilled workers and generates a significant amount of economic activity for the city.

"$200 million in wages come out of this plant every year. And we could have easily lost this plant. I don’t want to just take for granted that it was assumed that Smithfield would stay here because it wasn’t.”

Smithfield Provides Important Market for Pork Producers
The state’s pork producers are also excited about the processing expansion, especially those delivering to the plant like Shane Odegaard, a pork producer, from Lake Preston, S.D.

“I have a really good relationship with my buyer on the farm and cultivating relationships to the point where I consider us real close friends today.”

Construction is scheduled to begin in the first half of 2027, with operations to start at the end of 2028.