Dairy Trade

These Half-Dozen U.S. Ag Trade Missions Aim To Diversify Global Demand

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:46:10 GMT

Trump’s USDA team has announced its agribusiness trade missions for the year ahead.

“Our team certainly plays an important role in generating demand overseas for the products,” says Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.

Lindberg points to a three-point plan Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ team is deploying:

Get better trade agreements.
Build willing buyer and willing seller relationships.
Hold trading partners accountable.

According to Lindberg, the goal is it “helps to cultivate, it helps to diversify, so we’re not solely focused on one or two key buyers. I think if you go to many business owners and ask them, would you rather have one buyer that buys 80% of your products or would you rather have some diversification to lots of buyers who have ups and downs of their own, I think many of them would say they prefer the diversification model.”

So far, six agribusiness trade missions have been announced for 2026 with the goal of growing global markets, increasing exports and strengthening the agricultural economy.

The six mission destinations, and potential agricultural focus areas, include the following.

1. February 2026, Jakarta, Indonesia

Since 2020, annual U.S. ag exports to Indonesia have hovered between $2.75 billion and $3.25 billion. Overall, it’s the 11^th largest trade partner for U.S. ag goods.

Indonesia is the fourth-largest market for U.S. soybeans following China, the European Union and Mexico. According to U.S. Census Bureau trade data, in 2024 Indonesia imported from the U.S. $1.2 billion in soybeans, $198 million in wheat and $139 million in cotton. This past July, the Indonesia private sector and the U.S. wheat industry signed a memorandum committing to purchasing at least 1 million metric tons of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2030 plus a minimum of 800,000 metric tons of wheat in 2025 (prorated).

The Trump administration has worked to address long-standing barriers to U.S. agricultural trade and expanding market access into Indonesia with a trade agreement eliminating tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. products.

2. April 2026, Manila, Philippines

U.S. ag exports to the Philippines have more than doubled since 2010. In 2024, the total value was $3.5 billion, making it the ninth-largest customer for U.S. ag trade.

With limited domestic production, the Philippines imports nearly all of its dairy products, and specifically $365 million comes from the U.S. Poultry exports to the Philippines totaled $187 million, with a majority of that in frozen chicken leg quarters.

The U.S. gained market share for ethanol imports into the Philippines, having doubled volumes in 2024 with a value of $138 million.

Beef and beef products are the sixth-largest group of ag products the Philippines imports from the U.S. This category has also experienced recent growth by increasing 58% from 2023 to 2024. The U.S. is second to Brazil in market share for beef imported into the Philippines.

In 2024, the Philippines imported $120 million of pork and pork products from the U.S. The country’s local supply has been declining because of African Swine Fever.

According to an announcement in July, the Trump administration said the Philippines will charge zero tariffs for U.S. exports into their market, while the Philippines will pay 19% tariffs to the U.S.

3. May 2026, Istanbul, Turkey

According to USDA analysis, Turkey has grown its strength as an importer of raw materials and then reexported finished products. This includes importing wheat for flour and cotton for apparel.

Because of its geographic location, Turkey has also grown as a strategic regional transshipment hub, connecting U.S. exporters with trade partners across the Caucasus region.

In September, Turkey lifted its retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. ag products: rice, tree nuts, distilled spirits and more. The Trump administration says a focus for the upcoming agribusiness trade mission will be to address nontariff barriers to trade, which includes import bans on U.S. animal protein.

4. August 2026, Australia and New Zealand

The Trump administration says its trade breakthroughs with Australia will give greater access to U.S. beef exporters. The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement is structured to give comprehensive duty-free market access.

Other protein sectors have significant trade established with Australia. In 2024, $328 million worth of U.S. pork and pork products were imported. And $173 million of U.S. dairy products were brought into the country.

New Zealand imported $520 million worth of U.S. ag goods, including: soybean meal, dairy ingredients (lactose and whey), fresh fruit and distiller’s dried grains.

5. September 2026, Saudi Arabia

This agribusiness trade mission will focus on technical issues and nontariff barriers. Saudi Arabia is the 23^rd largest ag export market for the U.S., and it is a gateway to the $3 billion market for U.S. ag goods that is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

Over the past 10 years, the country has increased its imports of U.S. hay by 540% to its recent total of $152 million in 2024.

Corn, tree nuts and rice are also key ag goods exported from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia, totaling $239 million, $169 million and $123 million, respectively.

6. November 2026, Vietnam

USDA says this trade mission will focus on preferential access for specialty cheese and meats as well as improved market access for U.S. peaches and nectarines.

U.S. ag exports to the country peaked in 2018 at $4 billion and in 2023 were around $3.1 billion. Ranked from highest value to smallest, the top five ag products exported from the U.S. into Vietnam in 2023 were: cotton, soybeans, distillers grains, soybean meal and tree nuts.

For meat and meat products, the key prospects include frozen/chilled beef (boneless and bone-in), frozen chicken (leg quarters, legs and paws), and turkey.

Dairy could be a growth market for U.S. exports into Vietnam as nonfat dried milk powder has led the segment to total $146 million of imports in 2023. Fresh cheese (for foodservice/restaurants) is in demand by younger generations despite not being part of a traditional diet in the country.

USDA also points to fresh fruit as a growth category for the country, namely apples, cherries and grapes.

Trump Sows Confusion on Tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Floats 25% Duty for EU Goods

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 21:25:22 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.

A White House official, however, said Trump’s previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending his review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the U.S. Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.

“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all ofthem but a lot of them.”

Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.

Canada’s Finance Ministry and Mexico’s Economy Ministry both declined to comment on Trump’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to “overall” tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4 deadline was still in effect.

“So the big transaction is April 2, but the fentanyl-related things, we’re working hard on the border,”
Lutnick said during the cabinet meeting. “At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that they’ve satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he’ll give them a pause, or he won’t.”

EU Tariff Rate

Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs that would match the import duty rates of other countries and offset their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff.

Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate for goods from the European Union, replied: “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25%, generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things.”

He said the EU is a “different case” from Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.

“They don’t accept our cars. They don’t accept, essentially our farm products,” Trump said, adding that the EU was formed “in order to screw the United States.”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, is in Washington and will meet U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, a spokesman said. She is not slated to meet with any Trump administration officials.

New U.S. Trade Representative Confirmed

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 56-43 to confirm Jamieson Greer as Trump’s new U.S. Trade Representative, putting a veteran of the Republican president’s first-term trade wars fully on the job.

Greer, who served as chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, won the support of five Democrats, including both senators from Michigan, the center of the U.S. auto industry.

Trade groups welcomed Greer’s confirmation, lauding his commitment to consulting with industry and standing up for U.S. businesses, farmers and workers. “We share Ambassador Greer’s desire for an active and pragmatic trade policy that creates

U.S. jobs and more resilient supply chains,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Greer told senators during his Senate confirmation hearing that he wanted to quickly renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to ensure China does not use it as a back door to the U.S. market to avoid other tariffs.

“Right out of the gate, I expect that we’ll be taking a second look at the USMCA,” Greer said.

Asked what changes he would like to see in the pact, Greer zeroed in on further tightening automotive content rules.

“I think we should look at the rule of origin for automobiles and aerospace and other things to look and see if we need to have any kind of restriction on content or value added from foreign countries of concern, or non-market economies,” he said, using language that U.S. trade officials often use to describe China.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by Bo Erickson and Ryan Jones in Washington, Brendan O’Boyle in Mexico City and Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dan Burns, David Gregorio and Paul Simao)

East and Gulf Coast Dockworkers Now on Strike Over Wage Demands, Halting Key U.S. Cargo Shipments

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 12:53:51 GMT

A disruptive strike at ports along the East and Gulf Coasts began today as the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) walked out, affecting 14 port authorities and key cargo shipments. The first strike since 1977, it halts the flow of goods ranging from bananas to beef, pork and poultry, to industrial materials, leading to potential shortages and price hikes.

The ILA is demanding a significant 77% wage increase over six years, while the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) late Monday offered last-ditch effort of a nearly 50% raise over six years, triple employer contributions to employee retirement plans, strengthen health care options, and retain the current contract language around automation and semi-automation. It hoped that offer would lead to resumption of collective bargaining.

The ILA rejected the offer and stated that its wage demands were still not being met. The union said in a statement sent on Monday morning that USMX “continues to block the path toward a settlement on a new Master Contract by refusing ILA’s demands for a fair and decent contract and seems intent on causing a strike at all ports from Maine to Texas.”

The Biden administration is urging both sides to reach an agreement, but federal intervention under the Taft-Hartley Act is unlikely. The Taft-Hartley Act grants a U.S. president the power to suspend a strike for an 80-day “cooling off period” in cases where “national health or safety” are at risk. ILA President Harold Daggett threatened an intentional worker slowdown in moving containers if the Biden administration forces the union workers back to the docks using the Taft-Hartley Act. “You’re better off sitting down and let’s get a contract and let’s move on with this,” he said.

Bargaining for a new six-year contract between dockworkers, represented by the ILA, and shipping companies and operators are represented USMX, started in February 2023. According to a 2020 report by the Waterfront Commission, the regulator that oversees New York Harbor, more than half of the longshoremen based there made $150,000 or more. The ILA is asking for a $5-an-hour raise for each of the six years of the new contract, which means the hourly rate could reach $69 by 2030, a 77% pay increase. The union is also asking for better benefits and opposing the use of automated technologies at ports.

Murky member figure. While the union says there are about 45,000 members covered by the contract, the USMX puts the number of port jobs closer to 25,000, with not enough jobs for all the workers in the union to work every day.

Impacts: For the week ended last Friday, nearly $14 billion in trade arrived at these ports, including New York/New Jersey, Baltimore, Norfolk, Virginia, Savannah, Georgia, Miami, New Orleans and Houston, with $2.7 billion in trade arriving on Friday alone. On average, it takes one week to clear out one day of a port closure. As much as 43% to 49% of total containerized goods entering the U.S are processed through ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast.

A one-week strike would cost the U.S. economy about $2.1 billion according to an estimate Monday from the Anderson Economic Group (AEG), a Michigan research firm with expertise in estimating the cost of strikes and other disruptions. Most of that would be a $1.5 billion loss in value of some of the goods that wouldn’t be delivered on time, such as perishable goods. Transportation companies, including ship lines and ports, would lose $400 million, while striking workers and those who might be temporarily laid off, would lose $200 million in wages. Losses would start to accelerate the longer the strike continued, said Patrick Anderson, the president of AEG. “A strike lasting longer than a week will begin to impact retailers and manufacturers as supply chain movement grinds to a halt.” But he said estimates of $1 billion a day in losses are exaggerated, especially considering the preparations many shippers had made in advance of the strike deadline. To hit those numbers “you’d have to sink the ships… A strike at the port delays trade, but does not destroy it,” he said.

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Your Next Read: Expect Significant Impact on Pork and Beef Industries if East and Gulf Ports Strike

Port Employers Exchange New Contract Offers with Longshore Union in Bid to Avert Strike

Port Employers Exchange New Contract Offers with Longshore Union in Bid to Avert Strike

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 01:31:43 GMT

Port employers said they have exchanged new contract offers with the International Longshoremen’s Association, just hours before a strike deadline takes effect that would shut down container handling at East and Gulf Coast ports.

“In the last 24 hours, the United States Maritime Alliance and ILA have traded counter offers related to wages,” the employers said in a statement posted to their website. “The USMX increased our offer and has also requested an extension of the current Master Contract, now that both sides have moved off their previous positions. We are hopeful that this could allow us to fully resume collective bargaining around the other outstanding issues — to reach an agreement.”

The group of terminal operators and ocean container lines said their new offer would increase wages by nearly 50%, triple employer contributions to union retirement plans, strengthen health care options, and retain the current language around automation and semi-automation. No further details were disclosed.

The ILA earlier rejected the employers’ offer, but with negotiations said that the union has lowered slightly its demand for a 77% wage increase over six years of the master contract, and that the USMX has increased their initial offer.

Your Next Read: Chances of a Strike at East Coast and West Coast Ports are Growing; Here’s How it Could Impact Farmers

USDA Allocates $300 Million to Diversify Export Markets for U.S. Agriculture

Tue, 21 May 2024 13:42:48 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on May 21 that USDA is allocating $300 million to 66 U.S. organizations, under the new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP), to build demand for American food and farm exports in high-potential markets around the globe.

RAPP was launched by Vilsack in October 2023, authorizing $1.2 billion in Commodity Credit Corporation funding to help U.S. exporters expand their customer base beyond traditional and established markets, focusing on regions such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South and Southeast Asia, where consumer demand and purchasing power are growing, USDA explained in a release.

“USDA and the entire Biden-Harris Administration are focused on creating more, new and better markets for U.S. producers and agribusinesses, and exports are a critical part of that effort,” Vilsack said. “By enabling U.S. exporters to expand their footprint in diverse and dynamic new markets, RAPP will help make them more competitive and resilient in an increasingly volatile global trading environment. We know the potential is out there, but it takes time and money to grow new markets. USDA is pleased to be able to provide the start-up capital to help tap into these opportunities, because if we are serious about reversing the decline of small and mid-sized farms, and building wealth that stays in rural communities, it’s crucial that we create and sustain diverse market opportunities abroad as well as at home.”

Gaining market share in diverse and dynamic markets will help U.S. exporters better weather global shocks and better compete in an increasingly volatile global marketplace, the RAPP website explained. RAPP will help recipient organizations carry out hundreds of projects encompassing a wide variety of products and markets in this initial round of funding, USDA noted. Some of the projects include:

• U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) will receive $21 million and plans to expand its export efforts to new markets in the ASEAN region and throughout Africa, as well as enhance its investment in the convenience store segment in South Korea, Central America and Colombia.

• The U.S. Dairy Export Council will receive $10 million and plans to expand its presence in Africa by utilizing RAPP funding to better understand and develop dairy import regulations and regulatory frameworks in many markets.

• The Cranberry Institute will receive $1 million and plans to conduct trade education seminars and other consumer-focused activities to target export opportunities in India, Brazil, Colombia and Southeast Asia.

• The Hazelnut Marketing Board will conduct market research and trade missions to facilitate support market development in several African countries.

Other top funded organizations include the American Soybean Association ($28.5 million), Cotton Council International ($19 million), Food Export USA Northeast ($17.5 million), U.S. Grains Council ($17 million), Food Export Association of the Midwest USA ($15.5 million), U.S. Wheat Associates ($13 million), Wine Institute ($13 million), and Blue Diamond Growers/Almond Board of California ($10 million).

“USMEF is honored to participate in RAPP and we thank Secretary Vilsack and the staff at USDA for their vision and leadership in implementing this program,” USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said in a statement. “The additional investment in foreign market development is very timely and will be especially helpful in expanding demand for U.S. red meat in emerging export markets. USMEF also appreciates the role Congressional leaders played in the development of RAPP. We thank them for their support of this program and for prioritizing Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) funding in the new Farm Bill.”

To view the complete list of organizations that received RAPP funding, please visit the following link: FY 2024 RAPP Funding Allocations .

USDA Awards Funds to Help Expand Export Markets for U.S. Food and Ag Products

Mon, 08 Jan 2024 16:39:17 GMT

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is awarding more than $203 million to nearly 70 agricultural organizations to help expand export markets for U.S. food and agricultural products via the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program.

The U.S. Meat Export Federation, which works to increase the value and profit opportunities for U.S. beef, pork and lamb, received $12.8 million in MAP funds and $988,000 in FMD funds.

“Over the years we have seen the tremendous impact both MAP and FMD have on expanding U.S. exports to markets across the globe,” FAS Administrator Daniel B. Whitley said in a release. “For each $1 invested in export market development, U.S. agricultural exports have increased by more than $24. These programs provide a significant boost to the U.S. agricultural industry, which in turn helps strengthen the economy not just in rural communities, but across the entire United States.”

FAS will provide $174.3 million for fiscal year 2024 through MAP to 68 nonprofit organizations and cooperatives. These organizations use the funds on consumer promotion, including brand promotion for small companies and cooperatives, and the funding is used extensively by organizations promoting fruits, vegetables, nuts, processed products and bulk and intermediate commodities, USDA notes. The average MAP participant provides more than $2.50 in contributions for every $1 in federal funding it receives through the program, USDA adds.

Under the FMD program, FAS will allocate $27 million for fiscal year 2024 to 20 trade organizations that represent U.S. agricultural producers.

“The program focuses on generic promotion of U.S. commodities, rather than consumer–oriented promotion of branded products. Preference is given to organizations that represent an entire industry or are nationwide in membership and scope. The organizations, which contribute on average more than $2.50 for every $1 in federal funding they receive through the program, will conduct activities that help maintain or increase demand for U.S. agricultural commodities overseas,” USDA says in a release.

Late last year, USDA also announced a new fund that complements the fiscal year 2024 funds. The new Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) will provide $1.2 billion to help exporters reach non-traditional markets and ensure continuity of relationships and trust in existing markets. RAPP complements MAP and FMD by encouraging exporters to establish, build and grow their presence in markets with increased demand for U.S. products and growing middle classes. Applications for the first tranche of RAPP funding , $300 million, are being accepted through Feb. 2. Applicants will be able to apply for projects that last up to five years.

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USMCA Up for Debate in Mexico This Week

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 17:16:27 GMT

This week’s talks in Cancun, Mexico between U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai, Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng, and Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro will allow them to assess the state of the agreement and discuss a series of disputes. Issues include:

• U.S. and Canadian concerns about Mexican energy and biotech policies

• U.S. concerns on Canadian dairy barriers

• Canadian objections to U.S. softwood lumber duties

Another issue is auto rules of origin regulations. Canada and Mexico previously contested the Trump administration’s approach to implementing these rules, arguing the U.S. interpretation was more burdensome than originally negotiated. Even though they won the case in December 2022, the Biden administration has yet to modify the approach, inviting possible retaliation from Canada and Mexico.

Stakeholders plead for answers

U.S. business groups want the Biden administration to formally request a dispute settlement panel to challenge Mexican energy policies that they believe are a violation of the USMCA that went into force three years ago.

The American Petroleum Institute and more than a dozen other business groups raised the energy concern in an 11-page letter to Tai ahead of her attendance today and tomorrow at a meeting of the USMCA Free Trade Commission in Cancún, Mexico.

“We commend the Biden administration’s decision last year to request consultations under the USMCA regarding Mexico’s energy policies,” the groups said in the letter. “However, we are concerned by the Mexican Government’s failure to fix the issues raised by the United States. Mexico continues to hinder the operations of private companies in its energy sector, contrary to its own laws.”

Tai requested consultations with Mexico on the energy issues nearly one year ago on July 20, 2022, and was joined by Canada in the dispute. However, neither country has taken the next step of asking for a panel of trade experts to hear their complaint and decide whether Mexico has violated the three-year-old pact.

Regarding U.S. disputes against Mexico’s biotech corn policies and Canada’s dairy market access barriers, the U.S. has formally requested a dispute settlement panel to issue a decision.

USMCA dispute bottom line

USTR officials said that while the issues on biotechnology, dairy and energy may come up during the discussions, the dispute settlement process was the “primary” venue for such discussions.

“While there are areas of disagreement, of course, some of which may come up in these bilateral meetings, they do not outweigh the productive nature of our trade relationship,” an official said.

The official said those items are not “walled off” from being discussed, the primary format on those topics is the consultations that are ongoing.

Expiration date stamped on the USMCA

The USMCA has an expiration timeline of 16 years, with the opportunity for extension depending on the consensus of Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. The review process starts in year six (2026), where each country can express desire to extend or can raise issues to be addressed. In the latter case, annual reviews will continue until the issues are resolved or the agreement ends in year 16.

Biden Says He Will Not Immediately Remove Phase 1 Trade Deal With China

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:56:41 GMT

(Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has said that he will not immediately act to remove the Phase 1 trade agreement, which President Donald Trump inked with China, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.

In an interview with a Times columnist, Biden said that the United States needed to get leverage back to use in negotiations with China.

“I’m not going to make any immediate moves, and the same applies to the tariffs,” Biden said. “I’m not going to prejudice my options.”

“In my view, we don’t have (leverage) yet,” he added.

The United States needs to develop a bipartisan consensus and increase government-led investments in research and development, infrastructure and education to better compete with China, according to the president-elect.

“I want to make sure we’re going to fight like hell by investing in America first,” Biden said.

Under the Phase 1 agreement signed earlier in the year, China agreed to increase purchases of American products and services by at least $200 billion over 2020 and 2021.

The deal also leaves in place 25% tariffs on a $250-billion array of Chinese industrial goods and components used by U.S. manufacturers, and China’s retaliatory tariffs on over $100 billion in U.S. goods.

Biden’s team will pursue policies targeted at China’s “abusive practices,” including “stealing intellectual property, dumping products, illegal subsidies to corporations” and forcing “tech transfers” from U.S. companies to their Chinese counterparts, according to the interview.

On Iran, Biden said he stood by his views that his administration would lift sanctions if Tehran returned to “strict compliance with the nuclear deal.”

Last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said Iran would fully implement its 2015 nuclear deal if Biden lifts sanctions, which Zarif said could be done swiftly through “three executive orders”.

“In consultation with our allies and partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program,” Biden added.

(Reporting by Aakriti Bhalla and Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Sam Holmes and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Trump Administration Leaves a Lasting Impact on Agriculture

Tue, 19 Jan 2021 16:10:10 GMT

As President Donald Trump enters his final days in office, the House of Representative’s last minute move to impeach him for a second time is stealing headlines. And with the loss of social media access, Trump’s response has been muted. While the final weeks of Trump’s presidency have been a whirlwind, the impact he’s had on agriculture the past four years isn’t going unnoticed.

“I think in the last four years, ag has gotten a lot of recognition,” Kentucky farmer Ryan Bivens told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory during the farmer forum. “Agriculture has been at the forefront. We had trade issues that were going on. And, at the end of the day, I think we’re going to look back and realize how much we truly have gained.”

While farmers like Biven say the Trump Administration is leaving its mark on agriculture, Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer says one of the positives from the outgoing Administration was the President’s focus on farmers.

“He communicated to different groups, especially to agriculture. And no president- in my over 40 years of covering the business of agriculture from Washington- have I ever seen a president talk about agriculture and trade policy as much as our president,” says Wiesemeyer.

Mixed Reviews

Looking back at the past four years, that attention is mixed.

“There’s both good and bad in Trump, and that goes along so many different topics,” says Wiesemeyer.

From Trump ‘s stance on trade, to the easing of regulations, those in Washington say the past four years have been a whirlwind because you never knew what the end result would be. Tyson Redpath works with The Russell Group in Washington, D.C. He says the Trump Administration may be remembered for many things, but one may be a trademark of this administration.

“I think the tumult and the unpredictability, the uncertainty,” says Redpath. “I’ve probably uttered that word more in the last four years – ‘uncertainty’ - than i ever have previously in my career and not knowing what was coming next.”

Trump and Trade

The unpredictability was also a product of one of the President’s pinnacle policy priorities: trade.

“The president was very clear about his desire to change NAFTA and to renegotiate NAFTA,” says Redpath.

While the end result was the new U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), the negotiations seemed like a rollercoaster, with talk of the Trump Administration completely withdrawing form trade negotiations.

“I think it was in April or the springtime of 2017, when we heard we were pulling out of NAFTA, it was absolutely decided,” remembers Redpath. “And in short of some important members of Congress and the Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue himself talking to the President about why withdrawing from NAFTA would be harmful and explaining how potentially deleterious and catastrophic for those largest trading markets [it would be], we might have found ourselves in that situation.”

From renegotiating NAFTA to taking a tough stance on China, Wiesemeyer says the impact of Trump’s trade policy on agriculture is mixed.

“That’s because he was both the arsonist and the fireman when it came to China,” says Wiesemeyer. “Not that he shouldn’t have taken China on. It’s a mixture when it comes to trade policy. He should have taken China on; he should have made Americans first and he did on trade. He negotiated some pretty good bilateral trade agreements. But again, he’s got a mixture of negatives and positives.”

And while Trump built some trade relationships, others may need time to heal, as the impacts of the trade war with China continue to play out.

“We now see the end product of that campaign promise with the Phase One agreement, that now it looks like it’s proven to be something of a positive for American farm sales to China, now totaling somewhere between $26 and $27 billion,” says Redpath. “That’s up 62% from last year, but of course, that’s coming off at relatively low point.

(Farm Journal)

Purdue and CME’s Ag Economy Barometer shows the highs and lows farmers experienced over the past four years. While commodity prices drove some of the fluctuations in farmer sentiments, so did the uncertainty on trade.

However, in the beginning, farmer optimism rose on Trump’s election, a sentiment shift driven solely by the thought a Trump presidency would ease regulations.

“One of the signature issues is regulations, that he put more common sense to regulations,” says Wiesemeyer. “He really did them on a cost-benefit analysis that if the costs were not overtaken by benefits, then he didn’t do them.”

USDA’s Focus on Farmers

Another positive for Wiesemeyer is the team Trump and others put together at USDA; a team who oversaw not just the implementation of the Farm Bill, but the distribution of a record amount of ad hoc aid for farmers and ranchers.

“He got a very good USDA team,” says Wiesemeyer. “You look from the under secretaries to the deputy secretary, I think they were one of the best groups that I’ve dealt with in my career. Several of them were farmers, and I think that that helped. And Trump let him alone. And he didn’t do that with every department, so, I think they facilitated what was needed throughout his four years.”

One of those key team members is Undersecretary Bill Northey, who told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory he’s proud of how USDA worked to help farmers the past four years.

“Our effort was to be able to understand the impacts and try to bridge those to help a producer get past those impacts that are caused from off their farm,” says Northey. “Whether it’s trade disruptions with China, and especially for commodities that are impacted by China, or whether it was coronavirus and the impact to some of the producers because of that.”

For farmers like Bivens, those actions didn’t go unnoticed.

“I think we had some true friends in this administration to agriculture,” Bivens told AgriTalk.

As the verdict is still out on just how big of a mark President Trump and his team will have on agriculture in the years ahead, those in Washington say it will take years to know what Trump meant for trade and other agricultural policy.

“So much of what happened the last four years, certainly shapes and dictates what happens the next four years,” says Redpath. “I think at times, it’s important that we all remember you can’t make an honest assessment of the last four years until you see what comes in the subsequent years.”

Agriculture Applauds Phase One China Deal, Awaits Tariff Removal

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:54:25 GMT

On Wednesday President Donald Trump and Vice Premier Liu He signed the Phase One portion of the trade deal between the U.S. and China. As expected, the agriculture industry was thrilled.

NCGA president Kevin Ross attended the signing ceremony and praised the deal in a statement following the occasion.

“Signing the phase one agreement with China is a step in the right direction to resolving the trade dispute with China and restoring the trading relationship between our two countries,” he said. “China holds tremendous opportunity for American corn, ethanol and DDGs and NCGA looks forward to learning further details of what phase one will mean for these products. As more specifics become available, we will closely monitor implementation to ensure that the commitments are upheld and that U.S. corn farmers resume trading with Chinese customers. NCGA urges the Administration to quickly commence phase two negotiations and work to resolve retaliatory tariffs.”

NCBA praised the deal saying it will lay the groundwork for American-produced beef to be highly competitive in the world’s most populous market.

“The Phase-One Agreement with China will be a game changer for the U.S. beef industry,” said NCBA President Jennifer Houston, who joined President Trump at the White House for today’s event. “For many years, Chinese consumers have been denied access to high-quality U.S. beef—the same U.S. beef we feed to our families. The removal of these massive trade barriers gives Chinese consumers access to the U.S. beef they desire, and it gives America’s cattlemen and cattlewomen the opportunity to provide U.S. beef to a growing consumer-base that represents one-fifth of the global population and a middle-class that is greater than the entire U.S. population.

Dairy farmers were also thrilled with the deal.

“Today’s announcement of a deal that makes progress on regulatory restrictions and othr nontariff barriers hindering dairy trade is a positive step forward. These are important deliverables that USDEC has been pressing China for over the course of the last few years,” said Tom Vilsack, president and CEO of USDEC. “We need to continue to work with our government, China’s government and our customers to finish the job by lifting the remaining Chinese retaliatory tariffs against our exports.”

Randy Mooney, dairy farmer from Rogersville, MO and Chairman of NMPF, who joined President Trump and administration officials at the White House signing ceremony said America’s dairy farmers have been disproportionally harmed by China’s retaliatory tariffs, and we cannot ask our farmers to continue operating under this financial uncertainty.

“We appreciate the hard work invested by both the U.S. and Chinese governments, but we urge China to swiftly lift all retaliatory tariffs against U.S. dairy products and work with U.S. suppliers to fulfill their purchasing commitment,” he said.

While details on how the deal will impact dairy producers are still unclear, the deal does make progress on nontariff barriers including: tackling facility and product registration steps that have stymied firms seeking to export to China for several years; improving the regulatory pathway for exports of infant formula and fluid milk (including extended shelf life milk) to China; creating new transparency and due process obligations regarding geographical indications and common food names; and the promise of increased purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, including dairy.

Hog producers congratulated the administration for signing the deal and said they are positioned to address the unprecedented sales opportunity for U.S. pork into China because of African swine fever. To take advantage of this opportunity pork producers need China to eliminate tariffs on U.S. pork says David Herring National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) President and N.C. farmer.

“While China’s phase one commitments are welcomed, U.S. pork exports continue to be suppressed because of the country’s 60 percent punitive tariffs. In order to fully capture the benefits of this deal, we need China to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. pork for at least five years,” Herring said. “According to Iowa State University Economist Dermot Hayes, if U.S. pork gets unrestricted access to the Chinese market, it will reduce the overall U.S. trade deficit with China by nearly six percent, generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs and produce $24.5 billion in new pork exports all within the next decade. However, if the U.S. continues to face 60 percent punitive tariffs (and a cumulative tariff of 68 percent), while our competitor nations are assessed an 8 percent tariff, U.S. pork sales will be suppressed as China imports more pork from other nations.”

Similarly, wheat producers hope to see wheat exports increase when tariffs are removed.

“Even though China has huge domestic wheat stocks, they were buying more U.S. wheat because they needed it to meet growing demand for higher quality wheat foods,” said Vince Peterson, President of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), the organization funded by farmers and the U.S. government to promote wheat exports. “The losses we demonstrated soon after China stopped importing U.S. wheat have only grown since then, so we hope the agreement signed today signals a potential turn-around.”

While the details of agricultural purchases will not be disclosed, Growth energy, the nation’s largest ethanol association, applauded the deal.

“The signing of the Phase One trade agreement with China today is another positive step towards restoring market confidence for U.S. biofuel producers,” said CEO Emily Skor in a statement. “We’re grateful to U.S administration officials for their continued work on securing this trade agreement at such a pivotal time for our nation’s agriculture and renewable energy industries. Breaking down trade barriers between our nations will provide a valuable opportunity to restore demand for American biofuel, and we hope to soon see biofuels and DDG exports back on the Chinese market.”

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said today’s signing is an important step in giving America’s farmers and ranchers the ability to get back to business in the global market.

“This is a great way to start the new year, but there is more work to do. We encourage the Senate to pass the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to increase export opportunities with our North American neighbors,” he said. “We also look forward to additional trade agreements with countries that are locking-in deals with our competitors. This must be a focus in 2020.”

Agriculture Secretaries Urge Congress To Ratify USMCA

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:51:43 GMT

All former U.S. Secretaries of Agriculture since President Reagan’s Administration announced on Thursday their support for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). A letter written to Congressional leaders underscored the importance of passing USMCA saying, “We need a strong and reliable trade deal with our top two customers for U.S. agriculture products. USMCA will provide certainty in the North American market for the U.S. farm sector and rural economy. We strongly support ratification of USMCA.”

The letter was sent by former Secretaries John Block (Reagan), Mike Espy (Clinton), Dan Glickman (Clinton), Ann Veneman (W. Bush), Mike Johanns (W. Bush), Ed Shafer (W. Bush), and Tom Vilsack (Obama).

Following the announcement, Secretary Perdue issued this statement:

“President Trump has fulfilled a promise, which many said couldn’t be done, to renegotiate NAFTA and improve the standing of the entire American economy, including the agriculture sector,” said Secretary Perdue. “Support for USMCA crosses all political parties, specifically when it comes to the agriculture community, and I am proud to stand side by side with former agriculture secretaries who agree USMCA is good news for American farmers. I commend President Trump and Ambassador Lighthizer, for their perseverance, leadership, and hard work to get USMCA across the finish line.”

Former Secretaries Vilsack, Glickman, and Block joined Secretary Perdue at USDA today for a press conference to reiterate their support for USMCA.

Wiesemeyer: Presidents Trump, Xi Need a Trade Deal Win

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:24:47 GMT

Trade talks with China are set to kick back up next week in Washington, D.C. After a year of tariff threats, an escalating trade war and struggling exports to China, bystanders are growing tired of watching the story play out.

However, positive developments surfaced this week, as Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer reported, Chinese leader Xi Xinping will visit the White House in June before the G20 Summit in Japan. The meeting could happen either the second or third week of June, signaling a trade deal with China could be close.

The news comes the same week that President Donald Trump threatened to walk away from negotiations with China if the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement by May, a move Wiesemeyer thinks is a negotiating ploy.

“I think that’s mostly positioning when it comes to China,” said Wiesemeyer. “Things can come unraveled near the end, but I’m 98% in the category that a deal will get done. You always have to have a 2% Trump factor involved here, but I really think there’s only a few things that remain to be done.”

He said one of the main hurdles both administrations still need to work through are tariffs. Not only will the two countries decide if tariffs should be reduced, but if the duties can be eliminated on major products.

“That probably can be handled in talks next week,” said Wiesemeyer. “China’s going to bring about 100 people here. That tells me that they’re very close to a final agreement that hopefully will get the tentative agreement of a meeting date for the two leaders.”

Both agriculture and traders seem to be immune to any positive news regarding trade talks with China. Tariffs were announced more than a year ago and some headlines have been premature in saying a deal is close to being done. However, Wiesemeyer says the slow process is the nature of negotiations.

“These are bureaucrats from both countries,” said Wiesemeyer. “When was the last time a bureaucrat was hasty? Never. So, give it time, give it time to bloom. It’s spring time, this too shall flower into an agreement.”

Just last year, the White House was telling farmers and major agricultural groups to stop setting the bar too low when it comes to China. The Administration said instead of pushing a “do no harm mantra,” agriculture should be pushing to gain better market access than it had before . While the details of a potential trade agreement are unknown at this point, Wiesemeyer thinks it will be good for agriculture in the short-term, but he’s not certain it will solve the issues longer-term.

“Maybe short term, it’s better, but let’s hope it continues,” he said. “China will always try to diversify the countries that they import from. I think that that’s one of the downside impacts of these tariffs.”

Wiesemeyer said a trade deal with China should come to fruition soon, as Trump knows he needs to recover doubt by some rural voters. If a trade deal gets done, and the Trump Administration is successful in what Wiesemeyer calls an “early harvest, ag-only agreement” with Japan, trade policy could help start to push agriculture out of its current price slump.

“We’re building the base to come out of the gutter, and we’ve been in a gutter,” he said. “I remember the 1980s like wet cement on my forehead; we’re not as bad yet, but if we were to have another huge crop for both corn and soybeans, we could have some really tough times ahead. Trade policy could well lead us out into the higher prices and then you build from there.”

Wiesemeyer said as the storm clouds of falling commodity prices are evident today, he thinks sunny days are ahead, if the Administration can follow-through on what looks like promising, pending trade deals.

Related Story: China’s Leaders to Visit the White House in June

Ag Remains Unchanged In KORUS Renegotiation

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:10:43 GMT

Representatives from the U.S. and South Korea have reached an agreement to modify the United States-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), as announced from the White House on Wednesday.

“The improved KORUS agreement reflects the President’s leadership in delivering more reciprocal trade outcomes benefiting U.S. workers, exporters, and businesses. – USTR Robert Lighthizer. More information about the agreement here: https://t.co/5RzgFgEgLi
— USTR (@USTradeRep45) March 28, 2018

South Korea is agreeing to reduce its steel exports by 30 percent and to double its import quota for U.S. cars, exempting them from steel tariffs.

Agriculture has been left out of the agreement, and the trade pact has been beneficial to this sector.

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), red meat exports to Korea topped $1.7 billion, almost double that of 2012 numbers. The U.S. is the largest beef supplier to Korea and the country’s second largest supplier of pork.

These impressive gains are causing some farmers and ranchers to worry as the administration takes a hard line on trade.

“The American farmer and rancher has done such an unbelievable job at producing food, not only for us, but the world, that we really count on exports, [particularly] the beef industry,” said

Talks to modify the 2012 bilateral trade pact have been happening since January.

Will Ag Survive the Art of the Trade Deal?

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 01:59:08 GMT

The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal. The opinions expressed below are the author’s own.

Before he became president, Donald Trump cut his teeth and made billions as a New York City real estate mogul. He made million dollar business deals on a daily basis. Sometimes those deals worked, sometimes they didn’t. But the net cumulative result was a huge empire that brought him fortune and fame, including cutting a path to the Oval Office.

I’m not an expert on doing million dollar business deals (I don’t even haggle with used car dealers), but I can assume that those negotiations are not for the faint of heart. It appears that those negotiations start with an outlandish proposal that the opposition will never accept but that sets parameters for ongoing debate. There is little diplomacy, it’s take or be taken.

Eventually, there is a compromise and a final deal. I can only surmise that in most negotiations before becoming president, Trump came out on the plus side of the transaction more often than his adversary. If not, the next deal would bring retribution.

There is little doubt that President Trump has brought that art of negotiation to trade talks. He’s followed the same game plan, because that’s what he knows best. Our trading partners certainly weren’t prepared.

A day into his presidency he cancelled the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A year ago he started renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He’s placed enormous tariffs on Chinese goods. Mexico is angered over President Trump’s threats to build a wall and once-friendly Canada is not so friendly anymore.

To say that President Trump’s approach is risky would be a clear understatement. After all, if he loses it won’t just be his own pocketbook that gets hurt, as it did when his own business deals fell through. Agriculture has already felt the wrath of tariffs, to the tune of $12 billion in government support which is a drop in the bucket compared to the total estimated loss for many commodities. Dairy farmers on both sides of the Canadian border wait to see who will blink first and how their respective balance sheets will be affected.

But maybe we are starting to see this hard line approach actually begin to yield results. We were able to get a deal signed with Mexico, although Congress has yet to approve it. China is starting to feel the impact of tariffs and diplomats have at least agreed to negotiate better trade terms, although that has yet to go anywhere. Canada has inferred that they may provide concessions on dairy, mostly out of fear of President Trump’s threats to place tariffs on automobiles coming south across the border.

Certainly, Americans aren’t accustomed to the brash tweets, threats and the outlandish comments President Trump makes when he’s talking trade. Our trading partners aren’t comfortable with it either. But I’m wondering if President Trump’s old business adversaries are recognizing a pattern, maybe saying under their breath “there he goes again.”

Perhaps the art of the business deal works no matter if you’re trading Manhattan real estate or shiploads of milk powder. Undoubtedly, farmers will continue to lose sleep until we find out for sure.

What do you think? Is President Trump doing the right thing on trade? Send me your thoughts at mopperman@farmjournal.com .

Trump Farmer Base Strong Heading into Election Home Stretch

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:42:34 GMT

By John Herath and Anna-Lisa Laca

While national polls show President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for the White House, the latest Farm Journal Pulse shows continuing strong support for the president in farm country.

In a head-to-head matchup between the two nominees, 82% of the more than 1,500 farmer respondents to the Farm Journal Pulse poll said they would vote for President Trump if the election were held today. Thirteen percent said they would vote for Biden, while 5% remain undecided.

A second Pulse poll was conducted shortly after Biden tapped Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. That selection had little impact on the voting choices of Pulse respondents as only 9% indicated that having Harris on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Biden. Forty-four percent of Pulse respondents said the selection of Harris as a running mate would make them less likely to vote for the Biden ticket.

Expect Harris and Vice President Mike Pence to come out swinging in the campaign, according to Pro Farmer Policy Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer.

“You’ve already seen Vice President Mike Pence go after her record in the ag area relative to her suggestions of reduced meat consumption relative to the dietary standards and bending more on the regulatory side, so it’s already begun,” Wiesemeyer notes.

To win the election, Harris must help the ticket attract minority voters under that age of 40, according to Wiesemeyer.

“That’s going to be the key, because that’s what helped Hillary lose,” Wiesemeyer notes. “She could not get the same number and the same categories of Black voters that President Obama did.”

Harris has a long history with the agriculture industry both as a U.S. Senator and as California’s Attorney General. Known as an advocate for farm workers and immigrants, last year Harris reintroduced the Fairness for Farm Workers Act which would require overtime pay for people who work on farms. Additionally, she has co-sponsored the Agriculture Worker Program Act which provides farm workers temporary protected status and a path toward citizenship. Harris is also a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, and in January she voted against the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The president has enjoyed steady support in the Farm Journal Pulse Poll with his approval rating remaining in a range between 75% and 80% for the past year. At the time of publication, national polling averages by FiveThirtyEight show Biden with an 8-percentage point advantage in the Nov. 3 election.

“As former USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said on AgriTalk last Friday, the goal for Democrats is increasing the percentage of rural voters supporting Biden and other Democratic candidates enough so it makes a difference in key swing states,” Wiesemeyer says. “The next FJ Pulse poll will be important to see if Biden’s current 13% tally increases. If so, the Democratic Party’s plan could have some election-year impacts.”

Lighthizer: Trade Deal is Intact, Chinese Purchase Commitment to Stand

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:42:11 GMT

As large Chinese purchases of soybeans continue to roll in while rumors of a broken relationship abound, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer assured farmers on Wednesday that the deal is still intact. Additionally, he told AgriTalk host Chip Flory that the Chinese would fulfill their Phase One purchase agreements in 2020.

“I think Peter [Navarro] was misunderstood,” Lighthizer told Flory. “Trust me that the trade deal is on. It’s the biggest trade deal anybody’s ever done, and it is completely on.”

Lighthizer says the Trump administration, including Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, is working “full time” on the deal with the expectation that it will move forward “full speed ahead.”

When asked about the possibility the U.S. could ever “decouple” from China when it comes to trade, Lighthizer said he wasn’t interested in speculating, but that China is a huge market for U.S. agriculture.

“We have, through this agreement, for the first time ever opened up beef and poultry,” he said. “We are selling massive amounts of soybeans again. In the three or four months this has been intact, we have approved more than 2,000 new facilities to ship to China. We’re up to 3,500 now, so I think it’s going to be a massive impact on American farmers.”

A Tricky Relationship

The trading relationship the U.S. has with China is complicated, Lighthizer admitted, adding that President Trump is focused on getting the relationship right.

“These are the two biggest countries, two biggest economies in the world, and we’re really in many ways a bipolar world and that’s the other polar,” he explained.

While a big portion of the deal is purchase agreements, the rest of it deals with structural changes that will allow the U.S. to sell more goods to China.

“They took 57 commitments and they’ve already followed through on 50 of them, so it’s a massive change. It’s really, really going to have a positive effect for farmers and ranchers in this country, and we’re excited about it,” he said. “But the relationship is still going to be complicated We have to get the balance right, and we have to make sure that the U.S. is safe and prosperous, and that our farmers are selling lots of products.”

Keeping Their Commitment

Lighthizer is confident the Chinese will keep their purchase commitments as part of the Phase One Deal.

“Picture it, we’re negotiating through this thing where we negotiate into the new year. We finish on the 15th of January we sign it’s got a 30 day entry into a fourth date so that means it’s the 15th,” he says. “The question is, are the first-year commitments on a calendar year? The answer is they are on a calendar year and that puts an awful lot of pressure on the Chinese, particularly in the purchasing side to get that done in what is a relatively brief period of time. That was a specific point of negotiation. I think it’s really important the president thought it was really important for our farmers and ranchers, that we get all that in during that calendar year so we expect them to do it.”

Because soybeans are one of the biggest crops on the Chinese buying list, the seasons are playing into purchase timing, he says. “But we expect them to do it all during the course of this calendar year,” he added.

Lighthizer would not provide any kind of timeline on Phase Two but said it will be dependent on the completion of Phase One.

USDA Has Paid Farmers $2.46 Billion In MFP Payments to Date

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:34:00 GMT

USDA began issuing the second round of Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments on Aug. 21, and since that time the agency has paid farmers $2.46 billion.

Up to $7.25 billion is available this fall from the $14.5 billion earmarked for aid.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas and Indiana are the top states for payments, says Pro Farmer policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer.

“USDA had processed 175,173 applications as of Tuesday,” he says.

Enrollment opened on July 29 and runs through Dec. 6. USDA officials say additional tranches of payments will be made in November and January if market and trade conditions warrant. Sources agree those payments will occur.

MFP By The Numbers

$14.5 billion – Total amount allocated to farmer payments

$7.25 billion – Total estimated for first round of payments to farmers.

$15 to $150 per acre – Payment range on eligible row crops.

$11 per hog - Eligible hog producer payment:

20 cents per cwt. - Dairy payment

$146 per acre - Eligible tree nuts

$250,000 - Payment cap per category per person or legal entity

$500,000 – Total payment cap

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Trump Says NAFTA Talks Doing Nicely as Mexico Sees Deal Soon

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:04:07 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said talks on a revised NAFTA are “doing very nicely” as ministers from the U.S., Mexico and Canada meet in Washington to try to push for an agreement by early May.

“Nafta as you know is moving along,” Trump said in a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday in Washington. “I could make a deal very quickly but I’m not sure that’s in the best interest of the United States. We’ll see what happens, but we’re doing very well.”

Under optimistic conditions, negotiators have a 75 percent chance of reaching a deal soon, Moises Kalach, the trade head for the Mexican business chamber known as CCE, said in an interview with Grupo Formula radio. An agreement on an updated North American Free Trade Agreement could be reached in the next 10 days, he said.

If no deal is reached in the coming days, it may make sense to put negotiations on hold until the end of the year or early 2019, given the presidential election in Mexico in July and the U.S. congressional midterm vote in November, Kalach said.

Negotiating teams have agreed on nine or 10 more topic areas that are ready for ministers’ review and approval, Kalach said. Even so, wide differences remain on some of the toughest issues, such as tightening up the rules of origin for cars and their components, aimed at boosting American manufacturing but that could upend existing supply chains.

Negotiators have also finished work on the telecommunications chapter, two people familiar with the talks said last week, asking not to be identified discussing private negotiations.

Washington Talks

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and his team were at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office in Washington on Tuesday morning for private meetings with their American counterparts. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is expected to take part in discussions in the afternoon.

“Any day that there’s talks you work toward a goal,” Guajardo told reporters before entering the USTR. “Nobody can guarantee that you will achieve it. It depends on the commitment and flexibility around the table.”

Trump’s negotiators have been pushing for a deal by early May. That would meet the U.S. timeline for having an agreement approved, at the latest, by the lame-duck session that will follow U.S. congressional elections on Nov. 6, said two people familiar with the negotiations.

Guajardo this month said he sees an 80 percent chance of an agreement by the first week of May. Negotiators are also rushing for a deal as Mexico approaches elections on July 1. Mexican left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has stoked investor concern with talk of canceling an airport and slowing an oil-industry opening, has consistently led in polls.

This week’s talks are set to cover the most ground since the final official negotiating round in Mexico City in early March, according to a preliminary agenda obtained by Bloomberg. Topics include automotive rules, agriculture, and legal and institutional matters such as dispute settlement mechanisms.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

U.S. Reaches Deal in Principle With China, Awaits Trump Sign-Off

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:14:11 GMT

U.S. negotiators have reached the terms of a phase-one trade deal with China that now awaits President Donald Trump’s approval, according to people briefed on the plans, Bloomberg News reports.

Trade advisers are set to meet with the president at 2:30 p.m. to discuss the agreement. An announcement could come as soon as this afternoon, the people said. A White House spokesperson declined to comment.

EARLIER:

President Donald Trump said the U.S. and China are very close to signing a “big” trade deal, sending stocks to new records on expectations that a tariff increase planned for Sunday will be called off while talks progress.

“They want it, and so do we!” he tweeted five minutes after stocks opened in New York.

Ag Industry, Rural Lawmakers Praise Democratic USMCA Movement

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:14:03 GMT

On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced her plan to vote next week on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement. That announcement was met with praise and optimism by ag industry groups and rural lawmakers alike.

“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we have reached an historic agreement on the USMCA,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement. “After working with Republicans, Democrats, and many other stakeholders for the past two years we have created a deal that will benefit American workers, farmers, and ranchers for years to come. This will be the model for American trade deals going forward.”

In his statement Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted that USMCA is a big win for American workers, the economy, and particularly farmers and ranchers.

“President Trump and Ambassador Lighthizer are laying the foundation for a stronger farm economy through USMCA and I thank them for all their hard work and perseverance to get the agreement across the finish line. While I am very encouraged by today’s breakthrough, we must not lose sight – the House and Senate need to work diligently to pass USMCA by Christmas,” he said.

Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) welcomed this week’s progress on the deal.

“I have been pushing for months to get this deal to the finish line, and this announcement is great news for farmers, businesses and workers, in Western Minnesota and nationwide,” said Peterson in a statment. “The threat of leaving NAFTA without a deal would have been devastating, and this deal provides needed certainty for our producers. This agreement makes updates to how the three countries will address biotechnology, and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) issues. Rural America has faced many hurdles and challenges with these trade wars and passing the USMCA is a step in the right direction.”

Foreign Agriculture Chairman Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) noted how critical USMCA is to farmers in his district in California.

“Trade is vital to American agriculture, especially for the specialty crop, tree nut, dairy and livestock producers in the San Joaquin Valley and across California,” said Costa. “The USMCA protects the access they had into the Canadian and Mexican markets and provides nominal gains in some important areas. It’s good to see that this deal strengthens labor and environmental standards and provides mechanisms to enforce this agreement.”

Still, there’s work to be done to reverse farmer losses, he added.

“I am proud to support approval of the USMCA, but we also must recognize that going forward, incremental improvements and protecting the status quo won’t reverse farmer losses as a result of the trade war,” he said. “For that to happen, the Administration needs to remove its tariffs, which are the source of so much economic hardship for our farmers, and at the core of our depressed farm economy.”

The passage of USMCA would be a significant boost to America’s dairy farmers, according to Jim Mulhern, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation.

“USMCA will expand trade opportunities with our most valuable partners and secure immediate benefits for our rural communities, adding an estimated $548 million to dairy-farm revenues in its first six years after implementation,” Mulhern said in a statement. “Newly announced improvements to USMCA will also ensure that if our trading partners flout their dairy obligations under the trade deal, the U.S. has the tools it needs to vigorously enforce our rights. An already good deal for U.S. dairy farmers is even better now, thanks to these changes.”

Dairy farmers are counting on Congress to pass USMCA quickly, said Tom Vilsack, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, in a statement.

“Finalizing USMCA will bolster international confidence in the U.S. as a serious negotiating partner and build momentum for other trade agreements in key markets abroad,” he said in a statement. “Without this crucial trade agreement, Made-in-America dairy and agriculture products could be left behind in the new year.”

Brody Stapel, president of Edge and a dairy farmer in eastern Wisconsin said farmers are grateful for progress on the deal. “Our farmers have been waiting in uncertainty for more than a year for USMCA to get done,” he said. “So, it’s certainly good news to see the deal take this significant step forward. There are more steps to be taken, however, so we are not breathing a full sigh of relief.”

Kansas Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said he looks forward to reviewing the specific language of the recent changes. In his statement, he added USMCA is an example of President Donald Trump keeping his word.

“Passage of USMCA will be a significant win for farmers, workers and all Americans. Renegotiating NAFTA was a central campaign promise made by President Trump. He kept his word and Americans will enjoy the many benefits of this upgraded trade deal as a result,” he said.

According to Kevin Ross, an Iowa farmer and president of the National Corn Growers Association, passage of USMCA would be a bright spot in a brutal year.

“NCGA’s top legislative priority in 2019 has been passing USMCA. Today’s announcement brings us one step closer to ratifying this important agreement and securing the future of our trading relationship with Mexico and Canada, the top export market for U.S. corn farmers,” he said. “It’s been a brutal year for many farmers who really need the certainty this would provide for agricultural trade.”

Similarly, David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C and president of the National Pork Producers council said USMCA is crucial for hog producers and lawmakers can expect to hear from them in the coming weeks.

“Members of Congress can count on hearing, yet again, from pork producers as NPPC is unleashing a grassroots call to action,” he said. “We want a vote this year and NPPC will score this critically important trade agreement as a key vote.”

Should You Take An MFP Payment?

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:05:52 GMT

For several weeks, farmers have been debating amongst each other the virtue of taking a Market Facilitation Program payment. While some say taking the payment is promoting President Donald Trump’s “bad behavior,” others won’t be farming in 2020 without the money. Others are torn about the decision for personal reasons.

While most producers who are considering forgoing the payments have done their research, Alan Hoskins, of American Farm Mortgage, recommends a deep dive into why you’re planning to refuse them.

“If you are uncertain as to whether you should take the payment, talk to someone you have a lot of faith in from a character perspective before you make your final decision,” he says.

Moreover, make sure you’re not making this decision in hopes that it will shift the political environment--because it won’t.

“Not taking the payment is not going to affect anything politically,” Hoskins says. “Not taking the payment for ethics or internal belief about right or wrong is one thing, but it will not facilitate a change in the political environment.”

Still, there is no amount of money worth compromising personal beliefs, Hoskins says.

“Anytime somebody is doing something that potentially makes them uncomfortable from a moral perspective, the fact that you’re questioning it at all is probably a pretty good indicator you don’t feel comfortable doing it,” he says. “There is no amount of money, in my opinion, that would or should ease a moral question about an action that you’re preparing to take.”

He says candidly if someone has a moral objection to the payments, regardless of financial position, “morality should always trump finances.” No pun intended.

Live and Let Live

This decision is very personal and will vary from producer to producer, and as such, Hoskins says, farmers should stop judging each other about such a choice.

“I know producers that are absolutely adamant about not working on Sundays regardless of the circumstances and I know other producers who are perfectly comfortable working on Sundays,” he explains. “That is a personal decision, and neither one of them should look at the other and make judgments about their neighbor’s actions because both are doing what they believe is the correct thing within their being.”

MFP is no different.

Here’s what a few farmers on Twitter are saying about the subject:

I have no problem with farm-socialism. If your philosophy causes you ulcers about government-supported agriculture, consider food security a national security issue. Perhaps the most important national security issue as we move forward. Rename it to Strategic Farming Reserves.
— Rinny (@RinnyTheGopher) August 6, 2019

Trump Ratchets Up Trade War With New Tariffs on Chinese Imports

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:05:44 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump abruptly escalated his trade war with China, announcing that he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports that aren’t yet subject to U.S. duties after setbacks in negotiations with Beijing.

The new tariff will be imposed beginning Sept. 1, he said in a tweet. Another $250 billion in Chinese goods are already subject to a 25% U.S. tariff.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer returned from talks with Chinese counterparts in Shangai this week without reporting much progress. Negotiations have been at an impasse since May after the U.S. said the Chinese reneged on provisions of a tentative deal.

State-run Chinese media called the Shanghai talks “pragmatic.” The two sides confirmed they had discussed increasing Chinese imports of U.S. agricultural products, which have fallen dramatically this year, and that they would meet again in September in Washington.

U.S. stocks pared gains on the news, while yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to the lowest since 2016.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan in June in what the U.S. said was an effort to get the talks back on track. But Trump said that China failed to fulfill a handshake agreement with Xi to buy more U.S. agricultural products.

Trump also said that Xi hasn’t met a promise to crackdown on U.S. shipments of fentanyl, a dangerous opioid that has killed tens of thousands of Americans in recent years. “Many Americans continue to die,” Trump said in a tweet.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Wayne in Washington at awayne3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net, Joshua Gallu

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

First Thing Today: U.S. to Export Pork to Argentina for First Time since 1992

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:19:22 GMT

Good morning!

Position evening overnight... Corn futures are narrowly mixed as of 6:30 a.m. CT. Soybeans also saw choppy trade overnight, but the market is currently trading low-range and down roughly a penny. Wheat futures, on the other hand, are fractionally to 4 cents higher, with the spring wheat market leading gains. The U.S. dollar index is down slightly, while crude oil futures are posting similar gains.

Chinese demand for U.S. beans (finally) picking up... Chinese demand for new-crop beans from the U.S. is finally showing some signs of life. Its total purchases for 2017-18 stood at just 3.49 MMT as of Aug. 10, the lowest level for this time of the year since 2006 and 46% behind last year at this point. But weekly export sales were stronger than expected for new-crop beans in yesterday’s update and USDA has announced bean sales totaling 549,000 MT this week (to China and unknown) via its daily reporting system. Plus, a Chinese trade delegation signed non-binding agreements to buy 3.8 MMT of U.S. soybeans this week, following similar purchase agreements for 12.5 MMT of the oilseed last month. Traders cited by Reuters note that U.S. bean shipments are priced at least $12 per MT below cargoes from Brazil’s Parangua port for fall shipment.

SovEcon: Russia to ship a record amount of wheat... SovEcon now estimates Russia will export a record-high 32 MMT wheat in 2017-18, up 2.5 MMT from its previous estimate. This comes a week after the firm hiked its wheat crop estimate by 4 MMT to 77.9 MMT.

Next rounds of NAFTA 2.0 talks set... The second round of NAFTA 2.0 negotiations will be held Sept. 1-5 in Mexico City. Round 3 will happen Sept. 23-27 in Canada. The first round of talks, in Washington, D.C., ends Sunday.

Top White House economic advisor Gary Cohn will remain in the administration... Rumors Thursday that the former Goldman Sachs chief operating officer would be exiting Trump’s team sparked an eventual plunge in stocks. Cohn was reportedly upset with President Donald Trump’s response to the deadly violence at a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia last weekend. The White House sought to counter the speculation, with a White House spokesman saying, “Gary intends to remain in his position as NEC director at the White House. Nothing’s changed.” The U.S. dollar fell from its highs on the reports.

Report: China struggle to maintain aggressive pace of cotton reserve sales... China will likely produce a 5.62 MMT cotton crop in 2017-18, according to the industry website cncotton.com. Also of note, the website reports that China’s cotton reserves will fall to around 5 MMT by the end of the year. But it adds that it will be difficult to maintain the annual destocking pace of 2 MMT to 3 MMT. The current cotton import quota signals there will be at least a 1.25 MMT gap between supply and demand that will need to be filled by reserves, cncotton.com adds.

CME lowers soybean, wheat futures margins... Margins for CME wheat futures will be lowered to $1,200 per contract, down 14.3% from the current $1,400 per contract, while soybean futures margins will be lowered to $1,900 per contract, down from $2,100 per contract. The margins are effective with the close of business today (Aug. 18).

It’s official: U.S. to export pork to Argentina for first time since 1992... The U.S. has reached a deal that will allow it to ship pork to Argentina for the first time in 25 years, the White House announced. All fresh, chilled, and frozen pork and pork products from U.S. animals will be eligible for export to Argentina for the first time since 1992. The agreement opens up a market that could be worth $10 million per year for U.S. pork producers, according to the White House. Argentina had banned the U.S. pork, citing food safety concerns. Under the terms of the deal, Argentine food safety officials will visit the U.S. to conduct on-site verification of the U.S. meat inspection system before the exports resume. The announcement comes around four months after Trump raised the issue with Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri. It also comes just days after Vice President Mike Pence met with Macri in Buenos Aires. Shipments are expected to start by year-end.

China to probe alleged broiler chicken dumping by Brazil... China has launched an investigation into whether Brazil has been dumping broiler chickens onto its market amid. Chinese producers complain that the country has been selling broilers at prices below market value. China is the world’s second largest poultry consumer, and Brazil supplies more than half of its broiler supplies. The U.S. had been the top supplier of chicken to China until 2010 when the country tacked anti-dumping duties on U.S. broiler chicken products. Any duties would be a big blow for Brazil as it ships the country more than $1 billion worth of broilers per year and it is still working to bounce back after a meat safety scandal earlier this year.

South Korea lifts ban on imports of U.S. poultry/products... South Korea has lifted its ban on imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products. It imposed the ban after the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Tennessee earlier this year. USDA notified the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) Aug. 11 that it was now free of HPAI, removing any justification for countries to block U.S. poultry. Several countries imposed partial bans on imports of U.S. poultry/products when a case of HPAI was found in late-February, with some blocking imports from just the area around the outbreak while others imposed broader bans. South Korea blocked all U.S. poultry/products. The country has also announced a temporary measure that will allow U.S. eggs and egg products to enter the country duty-free in the face of a shortage of domestic supplies.

Cash cattle trade mostly around $110... Cash cattle trade picked up across Colorado, Iowa, Kansas and Texas yesterday at $110 and in Nebraska at $109 on Thursday, down $4 to $7 from the week prior. Futures start the day several bucks below these price levels. Also of note, Choice boxed beef values have dropped more rapidly than Select values lately, narrowing the spread between the cuts to just $1.43. Movement has picked up on the price slide.

Building supplies a weight on lean hogs... The latest weight data signals supplies are backing up a bit in the Iowa/Minnesota market, which is concerning given seasonally building supplies. Pork prices have been slipping, tightening packer profit margins. And this is a source of pressure for the cash market. All of this plus recent chart damage signals there is more risk to the downside for the lean hog market.

Overnight demand news... Jordan purchased 50,000 MT of barley from optional origins.

Today’s reports:

2:00 p.m., Farm Computer Usage and Ownership -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Milk Production -- NASS

First Thing Today: Cool Temps Expected Across Nation's Midsection, with Varied Precip

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Firmer tone for corn and beans to close the overnight session... Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher after holding to a narrow range overnight. Soybeans faced pressure earlier in the overnight session, but the market is currently trading high-range and steady to fractionally higher. SRW wheat futures are around a penny lower, while HRW and HRS wheat are narrowly mixed. The U.S. dollar index and crude oil futures are both marginally higher.

Cool temps expected across nation’s midsection, with varied precip... The National Weather Service Outlook for May 29 to June 2 calls for cool conditions across the Corn Belt and Plains, with varied precipitation. Wet weather is expected across the Central and Southern Plains, and much of the eastern Corn Belt. Dry conditions are likely for much of the western Belt. Cool temps signal it will take time for soils to dry out enough for farmers to return to the fields after recent rains. But so far this season, they have done a good job aggressively planting in between showers.

Moody’s cuts China’s credit rating... Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating on China’s debt for the first time since 1989, saying the outlook for its financial strength will worsen. It raised some concern Chinese firms may face higher overseas borrowing costs, forcing them to raise more financing at home and squeeze market liquidity. Moody’s also cited the likelihood of a “material rise” in economy-wide debt and the burden that will place on the state’s finances, while also changing the outlook to stable from negative. China’s Ministry of Finance said Moody’s downgrade was “absolutely groundless” and the ratings company underestimates the government’s ability to deepen reform and boost demand.

Perdue to appear before House ag appropriators... Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue will appear before House ag appropriators this morning, where he will field questions about President Donald Trump’s budget proposal that included steep cuts to farm subsidies. Questions will also likely arise regarding USDA’s recent reorganization and how the budget proposals impact the plan. The focus in part will be on rural development changes.

Wet weather causing problems for Canadian growers... Heavy rains are in the forecast for the Canadian Prairies provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan today and tomorrow, which will likely extend delays planting the nation’s canola and other spring crops. Concerns about the delays are mounting given that crop insurance planting deadlines lie in the near future. This comes after soggy conditions from fall into spring prevented farmers from harvesting all of their canola and wheat crops.

Turkey again limiting imports of some Russian commodities... Turkey is again restricting imports of wheat from Russia, possibly in response to remaining limits on supplies of some vegetables from Turkey to Russia, according to a Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The state news agency RIA reports Turkey has also introduced quotas limiting sunflower oil imports.

Bunge shoots down talks of a merger with Glencore... Yesterday, reports circulated that Glencore Plc, the Swiss mining and commodities group, had made a takeover approach to U.S. grains trader Bunge Ltd. No such talks are underway, Bunge said in response to the rumors. Glencore also clarified that it had made an informal approach to discuss “a possible consensual business combination.”

Online auction to provide cash direction... Traders will watch today’s online Fed Cattle Exchange auction for some additional cash market insight. Last week, the average top price at the auction was $135.16, which led to cash action on the Plains mostly falling in a range from $133 to $135. Futures are trading well below those prices, signaling traders’ bias. But packers are enjoying wide profit margins of more than $150 a head and showlist numbers are down sharply this week.

Packers up bids as pork movement surges... Cash hog bids strengthened on Tuesday, signaling that some packers may still be in need of supplies for this weekend’s kill and/or that they are buying ahead. This week’s kill is running a bit ahead of week-ago and around 8,000 head in advance of year-ago as packers’ strong profit margins give them plenty of reason to keep kill lines full. Also of note, pork movement was impressive yesterday at 401.97 loads, despite pork prices nearing the $90.00 per cwt. mark.

Overnight demand news... Jordan made no purchase in its tender to buy 100,000 MT of milling wheat. Japan’s ag ministry received no offers in its simultaneous buy and sell auction to buy 200,000 MT of feed barley and 120,000 MT of feed wheat.

Today’s reports:

9:30 a.m., Weekly Ethanol Production -- EIA
2:00 p.m., Broiler Hatchery -- NASS

First Thing Today: Meteorologists Call for Active Hurricane Season

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Quiet overnight session... Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher after trading in a narrow, two-sided trading range overnight. Soybean futures are mostly down 2 cents, which is off session lows. Winter wheat futures are mixed, while spring wheat is up a penny. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower, as are crude oil futures.

Meteorologists call for active hurricane season... There is a 70% chance of seeing between 11 and 17 named tropical storms for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said yesterday. This would be more such storms than normal for the six-month period that begins June 1. Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator, details that five to nine of the storms could become hurricanes, including two to four major ones with winds of at least 111 miles per hour. In a normal season, there is typically an average of 12 tropical storms and six hurricanes, including three major ones.

Australia shipping grain at a record clip... Australia has been shipping a record volume of grain this year, thanks to record- to near-record crops that have pushed down prices. For the first five months of the year, wheat, canola and barley exports of 17.2 MMT are up 60% from normal, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon data. Thanks to aggressive exports, industry sources believe the country will still be left with just 5 MMT to 6 MMT of wheat at the end of the marketing year, which would be similar to last year’s stocks. But looking ahead to the second half of 2017, competition from the Black Sea region is expected to heighten as big crops from Russia and Ukraine move into position.

Report notes major growth potential for U.S. exports to China... China would like to increase imports of ag products like soybeans and cotton from the U.S. and speed up talks on traceability, inspection and quarantine for U.S. beef to enter China, according to a report on China-U.S. Economic and Trade relations issued by its ministry of commerce. It called for China’s total imports from the U.S. to reach $8 trillion in the next five years.

Chinese users continue to aggressively scoop up corn at auctions... China sold 233,660 MT of the 2011 and 2012 crop corn it put up for auction from its state reserves at an average price of 1,155 yuan ($168.34) per metric ton. This represents 94.75% of the grain available for those years at the auction. China also sold more than 2.103 MMT of 2013 crop corn at the auction, which was 91.47% of what was available for that year. That grain sold at an average price of 1,383 yuan ($201.57) per metric ton.

China may change how it calculates the daily reference rate for the yuan... China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate, adding a “counter cyclical factor” to the fixing, in a move that would be designed to reduce exchange-rate volatility. The measures seem to suggest that policy makers are going cold on the idea of an eventual float of the currency, with officials more interested in avoiding turmoil in domestic markets than embracing free-market principles.

Accident leads to temporary closure of ADM export terminal... Archer Daniels Midland Co.'s grain export terminal in Ama, Louisiana had to be closed Thursday after a barge-mounted crane hit a conveyer belt system, causing damage. ADM is working to shift export operations to its other three terminals along the Louisiana Gulf Coast while damage is assessed and repaired.

Cattle on Feed expected to show all major categories up from year-ago... In its Cattle on Feed Report, traders expect USDA to report the number of cattle on feed stood near 10.864 million head as of May 1, up 0.8% from year-ago. Placements are expected to come in around 106.8% of year-ago levels, with marketings at 101.8% of last year’s levels. Note that the report will be released early -- at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Cash cattle trade picks up... Cattle futures posted strong gains Thursday as traders noted the wide discount futures hold to some early, lower cash cattle trade. More active trade took place in Kansas around $132, in Nebraska at $133 and in Iowa at prices ranging from $130 to $134 yesterday, which is still well above where futures are trading.

Trend remains up in hog market... Cash hog bids strengthened yesterday, giving traders a reason to push futures higher. While the market is technically overbought, momentum clearly remains on the side of market bulls. And traders are optimistic cash market strength will continue after Memorial Day given seasonally tightening supplies, strong packer profit margins and ideas retailers will feature pork after the holiday.

Overnight demand news... A group of animal feed makers in the Philippines issued an international tender to buy up to 50,000 MT of soymeal from South America. South Korea bought around 65,000 MT of feed wheat from optional origins, which is expected to be sourced mainly from the Black Sea region. Japan purchased 79,930 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S. as well as 37,870 MT from Australia.

Today’s reports:

11:00 a.m., Cattle on Feed -- NASS

First Thing Today: Hot, Dry Conditions Stoke Crop Concerns on Northern Plains

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 04:15:13 GMT

Good morning!

Choppy to lower trade overnight... Corn futures are steady to fractionally lower after a quiet overnight session. Old-crop soybeans are narrowly mixed, with new-crop marginally higher. HRW wheat futures are 2 cents lower, SRW is fractionally lower, and HRS is posting losses of 1 to 3 cents. The U.S. dollar index is off to a firmer start, while crude oil futures are down slightly.

Hot, dry conditions add to drought concerns in Northern Plains... Temps were warm across the nation’s midsection over the weekend, topping the 100-degree mark in South Dakota. And rainfall was erratic, with the heaviest precip falling in Texas and the Gulf Coast area. This raises concerns about the spread of drought across the Dakotas impacting the spring wheat crop. More dry conditions are expected for much of the Midwest this week, with the exception of a few showers from central Illinois to Ohio. The National Weather Service forecast for June 10-14 calls for warm temps across the Plains and the Midwest. The Upper Midwest is expected to be wet, with dry conditions likely for the rest of the Plains and Corn Belt.

U.S. may also face competition from Argentine corn this fall... Rains have slowed harvest efforts and wiped out roads in Argentina, which is working to bring in its biggest corn crop on record. This may push back the country’s corn export season past August, adding to what is already expected to be a fierce export battle between the U.S. and Brazil. Typically, Argentina ships the bulk of its corn crop between March and July. Pablo Adreani, an Argentine farmer and crop analyst cited by Reuters, estimates that around “8 MMT of Argentine corn will compete with Brazil and the U.S. in the July through October period.”

U.S., Mexican trade officials close to agreement on sugar trade... A U.S./Mexico accord could be announced today, the deadline for current trade talks, Mexican Sugar Chamber President Juan Cortina told told several media outlets. Any deal would hold back antidumping and countervailing duties in exchange for restrictions on what Mexican producers can export to the U.S. Recent talks have been limited to government officials, with regular talks between Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal. If U.S. tariffs are imposed, Mexican sugar producers have been pressuring their government to put in place steep retaliatory duties on imports of U.S. corn syrup. Guajardo late last week said the positions between the two countries have moved closer.

Congress returns with White House infrastructure plans being major focus... Lawmakers return from their Memorial Day recess, with budget-related hearings the primary congressional topic. It is infrastructure week at the White House, starting with “legislative principles” President Donald Trump will sign today outlining his vision for Congress to split air traffic control operations away from the FAA. The document states that “the new entity “must maintain access and services to rural communities and general aviation users” but doesn’t provide details. Trump will highlight his vision for other transportation modes like roads, rail and inland waterways throughout the week in trips to Ohio and Kentucky. He will speak on rural infrastructure Wednesday along the Ohio River and will visit Department of Transportation headquarters on Friday to talk about the federal permitting process.

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue travels to Canada today... The trip is the ag secretary’s first international trip in his new post. He will be in Toronto, Canada and will meet with Canadian Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Lawrence MacAulay and other Canadian officials to discuss priority agricultural issues regarding Canada and the U.S. In 2016, the U.S. exported $20.2 billion of ag products to Canada, making it our second-largest ag export market, while Canada exported $21 billion of farm products to the U.S.

Global growth forecasts unchanged... The World Bank kept its outlook for the global economy unchanged, forecasting a modest pickup in growth despite uncertainty about monetary policy and the risk of trade conflicts. The lender projects the world economy will grow by 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2018, the same as its January forecast.

OMB meets today with farm, other groups on WOTUS rule... Office of Management and Budget officials today will meet with representatives of the American Farm Bureau Federation and other groups to discuss the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to replace the Obama administration’s “waters of the United States” (WOTUS) rule. OMB is conducting a federal interagency review of the EPA’s rule-making process. OMB last week met with a coalition of conservation groups about the topic.

CFTC data reflects bearish attitudes... Bearish attitudes are quite bearish across many grain and oilseed markets, according to the latest Commodities Futures Trading Commission data. Money managers extended their record short position in the soy complex (soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil) to 156,123 futures and options contracts the week ending May 30. When considering the seven grain and oilseeds markets, hedge funds now have the second most bearish stance on record at 462,667 futures and options contracts, due primarily to a boost in bearish corn positions.

Market hopeful China will lift ban on U.S. poultry... Upcoming visits by Chinese officials to the U.S. have raised hopes the country will cancel its ban on U.S. poultry imports. The ban has been in effect since 2015, when the U.S. dealt with its worst bird flu outbreak on record. Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry & Egg Export council, said that representatives with China’s ag ministry and animal quarantine and inspection service will visit U.S. poultry facilities and learn how producers fight avian flu next month. Another Chinese delegation will come in September, he added. Besides the obvious benefits a resumption of trade would have for the poultry sector, this would also support feed demand.

Canada surpasses the U.S. in pork shipments to China for first quarter... Canadian pork exports to China at 93,000 MT topped the U.S.'s 87,500 MT in shipments for the first quarter of 2017, according to data from both nations. This has happened just a few times over the past 20 years. Chinese demand for pork is on the rise, plus stricter environmental rules in China have reduced pork production there and increased demand for cheaper imports. Canada has nearly removed the growth drug ractopamine from pigs’ diet because the substance is banned in China. In contrast, only around half of the U.S. herd is produced without ractopamine.

Cattle futures overbought, but more upside possible... While the trend in the cattle market is pointed higher, futures have climbed into overbought territory, signaling some profit-taking may lie ahead. That said, futures remain at a discount to to last week’s $135 to $137 cash cattle trade and marketings are extremely current, which has boosted feedlots’ bargaining power.

Hogs still pointed higher... Momentum remains on the side of market bulls in the lean hog market based on its technical posture. Plus, strong profit margins, seasonally tightening supplies and gains in the pork cutout value have helped keep the cash market pointed higher.

Weekend demand news... There is no business to report.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
10:00 a.m., Livestock and Meat International Trade Data -- ERS
2:00 p.m., U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Dairy Products -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS