Cotton

Another Sign of Trouble in the Ag Economy: Farm Bankruptcies Are on the Rise

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 14:09:23 GMT

It’s no secret there’s trouble in the ag economy. As AgWeb reported in March , the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses. A new report from Bloomberg Law shows family farm bankruptcies are also on the rise.

Bloomberg Law’s Alex Wolf and Skye Witley recently reported that family farm bankruptcies had already increased by 55% last year compared to 2023. And there’s no sign of that slowing down, as Wolf and Witley report bankruptcies are trending even higher this year. That’s as farmers continue to grapple with depressed agricultural commodity prices and high input costs.

Farm bankruptcies are on the rise in the U.S.

(Bloomberg)

“And while much of the industrywide distress predates his second stint in the White House, (President Donald) Trump has quickly nudged more farmers closer to the brink of going under and created turbulence for producers trying to make ends meet,” Wolf and Witley reported in the Bloomberg Law story. “Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts and frozen Agriculture Department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.”

The report shows the last time farm bankruptcy filings soared was in 2019, which was the height of the previous trade war with China. The previous Trump administration sent farmers more than $20 billion in Market Facilitation Program payments (MFP) to help cover export losses.

Following that financial aid to farmers, the report shows family farm bankruptcies, filed under Chapter 12 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, declined each year until 2024.

According to court records, the number of new cases in 2024 jumped to 216 from a near 20-year low of 139. The report also shows those filings have continued to speed up this year, with 82 cases filed over the first three months of 2025, which is nearly double the figure for the same period a year ago.

$10 Billion in ECAP Money to Farmers

More help is on the way, if not already on farm. That’s because the American Relief Act of 2025, which was passed by Congress late last year, authorized the $10 billion for ECAP payments to help offset losses growers incurred during the 2024 crop year. Those payments are being dispersed now, and farmers have until August to sign up.

According to Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist and a current emeritus fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute, direct payments have helped farmers. But the threat of farm bankruptcies, and the reality of financial pain if markets don’t improve, is still there

“Remember, we are getting a ton of money put into the sector this year from the bill that was passed by Congress in December,” Glauber told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “So that’s $31 billion coming in with $10 billion of that going out to farmers as direct income support to offset low margins. So, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of farms going out of business. But certainly, if these short, tight margins persist for a long time, then that’s going to affect people.”

Rural Bankers Show Concern

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the number of farm loans at risk of defaulting is the highest it’s been since 2020 as demand for non-real-estate farm loans has surged while repayment rates dropped. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago serves the Seventh Federal Reserve District , which includes Iowa, and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Ag lenders are also concerned. The most recent Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) shows for the 19^th time in the past 20 months, the RMI sank below the 50.0 growth reading in April. This specific index surveys bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

While tariffs and Trump’s focus on trade are causing uncertainty, Ernie Goss, MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University, says ag lenders are actually supportive of Trump’s tough stance on trade.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak, according to bank CEOs. Despite the negative fallout from tariffs, 75% of bankers support the tariffs on China, and 79.2% back the 90-day pause on other tariffs,” Goss told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “I’m an economist and we economists, we’re not very keen on tariffs and trade restrictions. Nonetheless, the bankers, three out of the four bankers are supportive of what the president’s doing there, and I would argue that the farmers are on the president’s side as well.”

The RMI also found rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to a weak 36.0 from March’s 30.4.

“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, pushed banker confidence lower,” Goss said.

Cotton Hit Especially Hard

Cotton farmers are especially feeling the pain with younger farmers already having difficulty getting financed for this year. Cheap cotton prices and dwindling demand are just part of the problem. Input costs have climbed, and there’s no safety net to be found from a new farm bill. One Georgia farmer told Farm Journal that the current farm bill is irrelevant and worthless, and if a new one doesn’t get passed this year, the cotton industry is doomed.

“We’re going to plant cotton and don’t even have a clue if we’re going to get our money back,” says Franz Rowland, who grows cotton in Boston, Ga. “There’s no farm bill to support us, and the reference price is so low that it’s not anything that we can depend on. So, we’re going to put several million dollars in the ground and don’t even know if we’re going to get it back.”

As president and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC), Gary Adams sees and hears the somber situation for U.S. cotton farmers from coast to coast. Adams says the outlook for 2025 is even worse than 2024.

“We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm,” he says. “Unfortunately, where the industry is, that’s what it looks like as we’re going into 2025.”

Darren Hudson is the Larry Combest endowed chair for agricultural competitiveness and director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness at Texas Tech University. Hudson focuses on cotton, and on “AgriTalk” this week, he described why cotton farmers, and the entire cotton industry, is feeling the pinch.

“Cotton is fairly input intensive anyway, and so urea, nitrogen costs, all these chemical costs, they’re facing those just like every other farmer out there, but we’ve had three consecutive really bad moisture years,” Hudson told “AgriTalk.” “So, we have a long way to go to get back to what you think of as normal growing conditions.”

Hudson says three consecutive years of declining production due to drought isn’t just a problem for producers, it’s also the cotton infrastructure that relies on that crop.

“We’ve had three years, you know, that processing infrastructure all that stuff is strained and disappearing, and it’s getting harder and harder to farm as a cotton farmer out here,” says Hudson, who’s based in Lubock, Texas. “We’re not unusual compared to everybody else. We don’t want to sing a sad story, but I think all of ag is in a squeeze at this moment with [commodity] prices versus inputs.”

Is the Ag Industry Ripe for Consolidation?

Another reality for U.S. agriculture, while the majority of farms in the U.S. are small family farms, that sector doesn’t represent the majority of farm production today.

USDA ERS data shows while 88% of U.S. farms are considered “small family farms,” those farms only represent18.7% of the total U.S. value of farm production.

(Ben Brown, University of Missouri )

USDA ERS data shows while 88% of U.S. farms are considered “small family farms,” those farms only represent 18.7% of the total U.S. value of farm production.

On the other hand, while 3.4% of U.S. farms are “large-scale family farms,” that sector represents 51.8% of the total value of U.S. farm production.

EXCLUSIVE: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:36:22 GMT

Time is running out for USDA to issue the nearly $10 billion of economic relief payments to farmers . Congress approved a 90-day window to release those payments, and in an exclusive interview with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Thursday morning, we asked when exactly those payments will be released. Rollins confirmed to Farm Journal that those payments will be released before the current deadline.

“Congress gave us until March 21, that is the ideal deadline,” Rollins said. “It looks like we’re going to be able to beat that, so it should be just around the corner.”

As USDA works to release those payments within the next few weeks, according to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.

Pro Farmer Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the only issue that could impact that timing is a possible government shutdown. If the government shuts down beginning March 15, and those payments haven’t been released yet, that could impact the March 21 deadline.

Wiesemeyer also reports based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year, which are:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

Payment Cap
Like other recent disaster programs, the payment limit for farmers will depend on how much of a farmer’s income is derived from agriculture. However, this program is based on average gross income rather than adjusted gross income (AGI).

The payment cap will be:

If < 75% of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $125,000
If 75% or more of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $250,000
USDA says standard FSA “actively engaged in farming” requirements apply

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

Update on Timing of $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu
Led by Rollins, USDA announced on Wednesday plans to invest up to $1 billion in new funding to combat impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and soaring egg prices.

“The important piece is not just this immediate short-term goal of getting the cost of eggs down and repopulating our layers and locking our barns down,” Rollins told Farm Journal on Thursday. “But much more importantly, perhaps, is figuring this out for the long term, so we’re not having the same conversation over and over and over again.”

The avian flu plan, which USDA rolled out on Wednesday, includes five major points:

Dedicate up to $500 million to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard” biosecurity measures. USDA has developed a successful pilot program, called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, to identify and implement more safety measures. USDA will pay up to 75% of the cost to address any identified biosecurity vulnerabilities at poultry farms.
Make up to $400 million of increased financial relief available to farmers whose flocks are affected by avian flu, and USDA will assist farmers in receiving faster approval to begin safe operations again after an outbreak.
USDA is exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for laying chickens. While vaccines aren’t a stand-alone solution, they will provide up to $100 million in research and development of vaccines and therapeutics, to improve their efficacy and efficiency. This should help reduce the need to depopulate flocks, which means killing chickens on a farm where there’s an outbreak. Note: USDA hasn’t yet authorized the use of a vaccine. Before making a determination, USDA will consult state leaders, poultry and dairy farmers, and public-health professionals. The agency will also work with trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns.
USDA will take other actions to lower the price of eggs. For starters, it will remove unnecessary regulatory burdens on egg producers where possible. This will include examining the best way to protect farmers from overly prescriptive state laws, such as California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens.
USDA will consider temporary import options to reduce egg costs in the short term. They will proceed with imports only if the eggs meet stringent U.S. safety standards and if they determine that doing so won’t jeopardize American farmers’ access to markets in the future.

As for the $500 million that will go toward beefing up biosecurity efforts, Rollins says that will happen immediately.

“The team is putting together right now the guardrails for that, but I think they’re almost finished, and that money should be moving out very quickly,” Rollins told Farm Journal. “That biosecurity money is based on a pilot program where 150 different egg laying farms were piloted on specific biosecurity measures. Of those 150, only one has seen the avian flu. Once they implemented, there’s a massive audit that USDA comes in. They help audit. We’re hiring a whole bunch of new folks to come on board to do that — and new epidemiologists to help us work through all of the science on this, and hopefully you see that immediately.”

Where is the $1 Billion Coming From?
At a time when the Trump administration is looking to save money, not spend, we asked Rollins where exactly is the $1 billion of funds going to be sourced.

“We’ve repurposed funds from other programs within USDA, so this is not spending new money,” Rollins said. “Clearly, we’re in an era where President Trump’s vision is to really streamline government, but this is not that. This is outside that lane. This is a really, really important issue. You know, it’s affecting every single American, not just our poultry producers. And so there’s short-term and long-term fixes here now.”

Some of that money, however, is coming from savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

“We are pulling it from multiple different pots. But yes, there’s no doubt that we’ve been able to find some serious savings in DOGE,” Rollins said. “We’ve canceled almost a thousand DEI trainings that were across USDA.... All of it adds up, and we’ve really pulled a lot of that money back. And now putting it where we think it really helps farmers and ranchers.”

What Will It Take for the Ag Economy to Recover

Rollins is set to give the keynote address at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Friday. Rollins told Farm Journal there are a lot of farmers hurting in this economy, saying “it’s one of the worst for that industry that we’ve seen in decades.”

Considering 64% of ag economists think the row crop sector of agriculture is in a recession , we asked Rollins what it will take for the ag economy to recover.

“There’s no doubt, to your point, a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of input down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” said Rollins.

Rollins says when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. And she says the growign trade deficit is something President Trump wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure that they could make some kind of a profit,” said Rollins. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation, the cost of energy has absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. So when you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. And we’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the president’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital, making sure that that the cost of inputs goes down. Hopefully with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. And I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change.”

During the the first Cabinet meeting in President Trump’s second-term, which was held Wednesday, President Trump floated 25% tariffs on the European Union.

“Obviously, tariffs always come up. I’m always saying, ‘let’s be very, very careful and intentional how we move here,’” Rollins said about the first Cabinet meeting. “The border came up, immigration deportations came up. So all the things that the ag community is concerned about that came up, course, I’m at the table. My job is to ensure that that our community’s voice is heard, but also to help effectuate the president’s vision. And we’re moving forward on all fronts.”

You can listen to the complete interview with Secretary Rollins below.

Your Next Read:
EXCLUSIVE: As DOGE Works to Stop ‘Wasteful Spending,’ Ag Secretary Rollins Says Vital Farm Programs Aren’t at Risk

A Farm Bill Extension Without Economic Aid for Farmers Sparks Intense Negotiations and Debate in Congress

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:47:43 GMT

A one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, tied to the continuing resolution (CR), has sparked intense negotiations over economic assistance to farmers. Initially, leaders considered diverting Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds intended for the National Resources Conservation Service in exchange for farmer aid. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opposed this, aligning with President-elect Donald Trump’s intent to dismantle the IRA in the next Congress.

Sensing an opening, Democrats pushed for concessions in return for their support, proposing initiatives like 100% federal funding for Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, duty-free trade benefits for Haiti and Africa, funding for museums honoring women and Hispanics, and re-entry support for former inmates under the Second Chance Act.

AFBF Calls for a No Vote If Congress Ignores Ag Recession 📰 https://t.co/ejlB4kQZh4 https://t.co/WaArdCYkdw
— American Farm Bureau (@FarmBureau) December 14, 2024

Farm-state lawmakers, pushed by farm group lobbyists, said they would not support a CR without farmer aid. American Farm Bureau Federation publicly called on lawmakers to oppose the stopgap bill if it doesn’t include farm aid. “I call on members of Congress who represent ag to stand with farmers by insisting the supplemental spending bill include economic aid for farmers and voting it down if it doesn’t,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said Saturday.

The Dilimma

Democrats know Johnson wants farmer aid language and must rely on them to help pass it, perhaps a majority of votes. House GOP leaders may have to take the CR up under suspension, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. If congressional leaders release CR bill text today, the House may not vote until Thursday. If so, the Senate could follow on Thursday or more likely on Friday.

Unlocking the farm aid package is the key to a broader CR deal. Both sides want to get aid to farmers, but they differ on the funding mechanisms. Republicans rejected a Democratic offer to include about $10 billion in aid to farmers while moving several conservation/climate programs into the farm bill baseline, which technically scores as deficit neutral. Republican leaders opposed continuing the conservation programs beyond their 2031 expiration, as they’d like to claw back as much of the 2022 law’s climate-related spending as possible once they have full control of the House, Senate and White House next year. Democrats in turn rejected a GOP counteroffer of $12 billion in unoffset economic aid, saying it came at the expense of some of Biden’s requested $21 billion in emergency agricultural assistance for farmers and ranchers impacted by natural disasters

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and other farm groups announced opposition to any year-end spending package that excludes economic assistance for agricultural producers. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized the urgent need for aid as farmers grapple with inflation, soaring input costs, and declining commodity prices.

Ragland, a soy farmer from Kentucky, called on congressional leaders to re-engage in negotiations to deliver both economic and disaster relief. He warned that failing to act would exacerbate the financial struggles of farmers, potentially leading to widespread impacts on rural communities and the broader U.S. economy. Soybean prices have fallen 40% over two years, with many farmers citing an insufficient safety net to weather the crisis.

ASA and other agricultural groups argue that without meaningful support, the nation risks an escalating agricultural recession that will reverberate through households across the country.

Meanwhile, the National Cotton Council (NCC) said it also strongly opposes any supplemental spending package that lacks meaningful short-term assistance for farmers. An NCC statement said the failure of Congress to provide short-term support to producers will mean that many farm families will go out of business in 2025, leading to devastating impacts throughout the rural economy. “We urge Congressional leadership to return to the negotiating table to find a path forward on economic assistance. If not, we will vigorously oppose a supplemental spending package that does not provide the immediate support our producers need. The current stalemate is a completely unacceptable outcome,” said NCC Chairman Joe Nicosia.

American Cotton Producer Chairman David Dunlow of North Carolina said, “Our producers will lose as much as $300 per acre on this year’s harvest due to soaring production costs and low market prices. Unfortunately, political gamesmanship has resulted in legislators turning their back on farmers during our hour of greatest need.”

Senate Democrats Respond

House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) and Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) issued a statement ( link ) condemning Republican Leadership for rejecting a $10 billion farm bill extension proposal. They said the Democrats’ plan aimed to provide economic aid and bolster conservation programs without diverting funds from disaster relief. They warned that the GOP’s counteroffer falls short, jeopardizing farmers’ livelihoods and risking widespread foreclosures.

Congressional Democrats are proposing $9.8 billion in economic assistance to farmers that is completely paid for and doesn’t add a penny to the deficit. This is real help that will reach farmers by the spring planting season. pic.twitter.com/9ty2uSKDFJ
— Senate Ag, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee Dems (@SenateAgDems) December 11, 2024

“For weeks, congressional Democrats have provided a pathway to a farm bill extension that will deliver tens of billions of dollars in economic assistance and investments in farm bill programs that farmers rely on,” Stabenow said in a statement. “Republican Leadership turned down this $10 billion proposal, rejecting needed economic assistance and increased conservation spending for decades. It is important to stress that this proposal is paid for and does not take any funding away from the critical natural disaster aid that has been requested. Their eleventh-hour offer fell short of what farmers need, shortchanged critical farm bill programs, and steals from critically needed assistance to address recent natural disasters. We can and should do both economic and disaster assistance, not pit one against the other.”

Senate GOP Lashes Out

House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking on the Senate Ag panel, criticized Democrats for neglecting rural needs and announced their opposition to any package lacking robust farmer assistance.

.@FarmBureau calls for prioritizing emergency assistance for farmers.

"We lost 141,000 farms in five years and if Congress fails to include economic aid for farmers, the sad reality is that we’ll lose more."

Read the statement: https://t.co/lQuJ35f2R1
— Senate Ag Committee Republicans (@SenateAgGOP) December 14, 2024

”America’s farmers have lost over $30 billion this year. And for the last few months we have led many of our colleagues in raising the concerns of the farm community in meetings, in hearings, on the House and Senate floors, and in private conversations with other Republicans and Democrats. We are deeply disappointed to learn that congressional leadership is failing to provide our farmers with the economic assistance they need to weather the crisis they are currently facing,” Boozman and Thompson said in a release “Last week, Republican leaders offered Leader Schumer and Leader Jefferies a $12 billion economic aid package for our nation’s farmers, which they rejected. It appears that congressional Democrats have not learned the lessons of the most recent election and continue to neglect the needs of rural America.”

U.S. Southeast Faces Daunting Cleanup from Helene as Death Toll Rises

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 16:41:42 GMT

Authorities across the southeastern U.S. faced the daunting task on Saturday of cleaning up from Hurricane Helene, one of the most powerful and perhaps costliest storms to hit the country, as the death toll continued to rise.

At least 47 deaths were reported by early Saturday, and officials feared still more bodies would be discovered across several states.

Damage estimates across the storm’s rampage range between $95 billion and $110 billion, potentially making this one of the most expensive storms in modern U.S. history, said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist of AccuWeather, a commercial forecasting company.

Downgraded late on Friday to a post-tropical cyclone, the remnants of Helene continued to produce heavy rains across several states, sparking massive flooding that threatened to cause dam failures that could inundate entire towns.

“The devastation we’re witnessing in Hurricane Helene’s wake has been overwhelming,” President Joe Biden said on Saturday. “Jill and I continue to pray for all of those who have lost loved ones and for everyone impacted by this storm.”

Biden was briefed about the loss of life and storm’s impact
on multiple states by Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Liz Sherwood-Randall, the White House’s homeland security adviser, the White House said.

The president directed them to continue to focus on speeding up support to storm survivors and accelerating recovery efforts, including the immediate deployment of additional search and rescue teams into North Carolina, it added.

At least 3 million customers remained without power on Saturday afternoon across five states, with authorities warning it could be several days before services were fully restored.

The worst outages were in South Carolina with more than 1
million homes and businesses without power, and Georgia where 750,000 were without power.

Some of the worst rains hit western North Carolina, which
saw almost 30 inches (76 cm) fall on Mount Mitchell in Yancey County, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center reported.

Atlanta was hit with 13 inches of rain, and farmers in South
Georgia were assessing the damage to the state’s $1 billion
cotton crop and $400 million pecan crop now in harvest season.

Before moving north through Georgia and into Tennessee and the Carolinas, Helene hit Florida’s Big Bend region as a powerful Category 4 hurricane on Thursday night, packing 140 mph (225 kph) winds. It left behind a chaotic landscape of overturned boats in harbors, felled trees, submerged cars and flooded streets.

Police and firefighters carried out thousands of water rescues throughout the affected states on Friday.

More than 50 people were rescued from the roof of a hospital in Unicoi County, Tennessee, about 120 miles (193 km) northeast of Knoxville, state officials said, after flood waters swamped the rural community.

‘CHIMNEY ROCK IS GONE’

The NWS issued flash flood warnings overnight for a swath of eastern Tennessee covering 100,000 residents, warning them to seek higher ground. The Nolichucky Dam in Tennessee’s Greene County was on the brink of failure on Saturday, officials reported, adding that a breach could occur at any time.

In western North Carolina, Rutherford County emergency officials warned residents near the Lake Lure Dam that it might fail, although they said late on Friday that did not appear imminent.

Multiple people in and around Chimney Rock, N.C., described the village’s downtown as washed out, with images online showing inches of mud and sediment, uprooted trees and snapped telephone poles and buildings turned into debris.

“All right folks, listen up, Chimney Rock is gone, Flowering Bridge is gone,” somebody known as Touristpov posted on TikTok, showing videos of the destruction. “I don’t know what they’ll do to get us out of here.”

In nearby Buncombe County, landslides forced Interstate Highways 40 and 26 to close and parts of them were washed out, the county said on X.

Mountain communities such as Boone and Burnsville, N.C., were cut off as highways were clogged with debris or washed out, said Rebecca Newton, who was scrambling to find anyone with cell service in the area who could check on her family home near Mount Mitchell.

“Towns are totally cut off,” she said after spending her morning making dozens of calls to friends in the area. “They’re using helicopters to get people out of Boone and Asheville.”

“Spruce Pine is gone, nothing but rooftops poking out of water,” she said of the mountain community about 50 miles northeast of Asheville.

Newton said a friend told her she had watched houses in her neighborhood slide one at a time into a river near Boone.

“It’s unreal,” she said.

The Burnsville Hub Facebook page is replete with people desperate to find anyone to check on relatives and friends cut off from telephone service.

One poster, Rachel Richmond, wrote, “I need any route that will get me as close as I can. I will walk the rest of the way. I need to get to my parents.”

WAKING TO DISASTER

The extent of the damage in Florida began emerging after daybreak on Friday.

In coastal Steinhatchee, a storm surge - a wall of seawater pushed ashore by winds - of eight to 10 feet (2.4-3 meters) moved mobile homes, the weather service said. In Treasure Island, a barrier island community in Pinellas County, boats were grounded in front yards.

The city of Tampa posted on X that emergency personnel had completed 78 water rescues of residents and that many roads were impassable because of flooding. The Pasco County sheriff’s office rescued more than 65 people.

A total of 11 people died in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis said on Saturday, speaking in Perry, Fla., which saw 15-foot storm surges, larger than those seen in hurricanes in recent years.

“If you look around here, you can see that some homes are just rubble,” he said. “This stuff comes in, it’s fierce and it’s just unstoppable.”

FEMA’s Criswell joined DeSantis on a tour of storm-damaged areas of the state. She will travel to Georgia on Sunday and North Carolina on Monday, the White House said.

“I just want to say on behalf of the president that we extend our deepest sympathies for those families that have lost loved ones,” Criswell said.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s office reported 15 storm-related fatalities in that state, while North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said there had been two deaths there.

At least 19 people died during the storm across South Carolina, the Charleston-based Post and Courier newspaper reported, citing local officials.

(Reporting and writing by Rich McKay; additional reporting by Joseph Ax, Andrew Hay, Brad Brooks, Ismail Shakil and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Bill Berkrot, Daniel Wallis and Paul Simao)

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 19:15:23 GMT

Stronger cattle prices combined with the recent run-up in crop prices aren’t enough to outweigh concerns about the impact high input prices will have on farmers this year and into 2024. While most economists agree the next 12 months could produce more financial challenges for agriculture, views vary on how much financial pressure producers will see and offer differing opinions on the U.S. crop production picture and commodity/feed prices.

The results are part of the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a new survey of nearly 50 agricultural economists from across the country. It’s the first survey of its kind, collecting insights from economists who represent both the private and public sectors. The economists represent the ag sector across a wide geography and also have expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

The survey is conducted anonymously to allow the highly respected agricultural economists to speak more openly about their economic and production forecasts since their responses won’t be attributed to the university, company or organization they represent. The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal . The university conducts the survey, collects and crunches the data while Farm Journal distributes the results.

Main Takeaways from the June Survey

Highlights from the first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor include:

The perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture is trending lower and is expected to continue to decline over the next 12 months.
Production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and demand headwinds are among the main drivers.
The majority of agricultural economists expect farm income to drift lower, with some expecting levels to land closer to the five-year average in 2024.
High production expenses are the biggest obstacle in 2023.
2023 crop yield estimates vary widely among the economists surveyed.
Economists expect crop prices to drift lower in 2023 and 2024.
Beef cow supplies are forecast to continue to decline this year.

A Current and Future Snapshot of the Agriculture Economy

The monitor shows the perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture has moved slightly lower over the past year, and economists expect that trend to continue over the next 12 months.

(Farm Journal)

The main drivers of the waning outlook include production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and domestic demand for agricultural commodities.

“I think what’s most surprising is that, on average, those more than 40 economists are in alignment with the more general perception of where agriculture is heading,” says Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, who helps author the survey. “What surprised me is the amount of volatility around that average estimate. It just reminds me there’s so many issues at play today, and when trying to predict or suggest the future, even these economists have a wide opinion in terms of where we’re headed in different commodities.”

Falling Net Farm Income

The Monthly Monitor shows all respondents expect farm income to decline from the record level of 2022 for 2023 and 2024. The range of survey responses is what produced the most volatility, with responses varying by as much as $51 billion from the highest to the lowest estimate.

Some economists are projecting farm income levels to return to the 2017-21 average in 2024. The main driver for 2023 forecasts is the expectation for higher production expenses. The biggest factor for the waning outlook in 2024 is the outlook for lower commodity prices.

“It seemed like cattle was the most optimistic commodity out of the mix,” Brown says. “I think there was still some expectation that corn and soybean prices could stay on the higher end, but generally there’s less optimism than coming off the records we would have seen back in 2022. That’s when farm income was a little north of $160 billion, and when you look at some of the forecasts for 2024 in our survey, it’s closer to $120 billion on average. Some are even suggesting farm income levels could fall back to where we were pre-2020, so pre-COVID.”

(Farm Journal)

Wide Range of Yield Estimates

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report set to be released Friday, economists don’t see many big changes compared with what farmers intended to plant in March. According to the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, the average survey result was 92.05 million planted acres for corn, which is up slightly from the 92 million acres reported by USDA’s farmer survey in March. The range included 90.5 million acres on the low end and 93 million acres on the high end.

Economists think farmers planted 87.98 million acres of soybeans this spring, slightly higher than the 87.5 million acres reported in March. The highest estimate was 89 million acres of soybeans, with the lowest estimate of 87 million acres.

In March, USDA reported farmers intended to plant 11.26 million acres of cotton. The survey showed economists think with the weather challenges in areas such as Texas, cotton farmers actually planted 11.24 million acres, with the maximum response of 11.9 million and 10.95 million on the low end.

Brown points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year. According to respondents in June, the average estimate for yield includes:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

(Farm Journal)

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

(Farm Journal)

Mixed Outlook on Livestock

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists to provide estimates about beef cow inventory as of July 1, which is a report USDA will release on July 21. Economists who responded expect cow inventory to fall to 30 million head, which represents a decline of 1.2%.

Respondents also see fed cattle prices in 2024 trending to over $181 per hundredweight. But responses also produced high volatility, with one economist even thinking fed cattle prices will average above $195 per hundredweight in 2024.

Most everyone expects a contraction,” Brown says. “With the dry weather we’ve had in cattle country, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, to name a few, I think we will continue to see fewer beef cows when we get that report out in mid-July. There were some who are even calling for larger declines than the nearly 30 million head. It reminds me we’re going to get tighter, and we’re not done talking about record cattle prices if these forecasts hold true.”

(Farm Journal)

Economists are less optimistic about hog prices and milk prices producers will receive this year.

Ahead of the next Hogs and Pigs report from USDA later this week, economists think the breeding hog inventory will be 99.27%, compared to 100.5% one year ago. Economists are more bullish when it comes to exports, but not enough to improve their outlook on hog prices.

“They weren’t as optimistic on cattle or dairy,” says Brown. “When you look at what they were saying for 2024 hog prices, still, the average was below $61. Which if costs stay where they are today, that means red ink continues into 2024. Likewise, the projected all milk price for 2024 is $20.50 in our survey. That probably also makes red ink in 2024.”

The Likelihood of a U.S. Recession

Another major economic indicator for livestock producers is the general economy, as it historically has a direct impact on domestic demand. Of those surveyed, economists expect interest rates to move up 2% over the next six months.

“Although there was a wide range of responses, most economists felt the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession and will not enter one during 2023,” Brown says. “I will point out, though, there appears to be continued uncertainty about the expected general economy health for 2023, given survey responses.”

The majority of economists “somewhat disagree” the U.S. will enter into a recession this year. While at least eight economists say they “somewhat agree” a recession is looming yet this year.

(Farm Journal)

Looking Ahead to July

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey is a current snapshot of economists’ views. The survey will be sent to participating economists just days after USDA releases its WASDE report each month. Less than two weeks later, the results will be released.

“It is fairly current, but I’ll just say weather matters a lot, as we talked about, especially with yields. We’ll see how this changes, being able to now come back to the same group and ask what they expect corn and soybean yields to be in another few weeks. We’ll also have the first survey under our belt, and it will be interesting to watch those changes,” Brown says.

Looking to the second survey, Brown says he’s interested in watching changes to the crop-yield side of the equation. Longer-term, he thinks the monthly monitor will reveal bigger trends about the general economic health across all of agriculture and how those forecasts change from month to month.

“I’m really curious to watch [the general economic health] as we get more observations, and see what July looks like relative to June in terms of overall economic health,” he says. “I’m curious to watch as this group of experts continues to digest what’s happening in agriculture.”

How the $1.7 Trillion Omnibus Spending Package Might Impact Your Operation

Tue, 20 Dec 2022 17:19:29 GMT

Text of the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package was released early Tuesday morning. The Senate will vote first and intends to pass the measure before Thursday, leaving the House no time to demand changes before the Christmas holiday.

Here are the details that might impact your farm:

Disaster Relief

• $250 million in aid to rice producers and $100 million to cotton merchandisers to make up for losses related to the pandemic or supply chain disruptions. USDA previously provided $80 million in aid to textile mills and other cotton users. For rice, USDA would determine payment rates based on yield history and acreage.

• $40.6 billion for drought, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, natural disasters and other matters — $3.7 billion in disaster aid for farmers to cover 2022 crop and livestock losses.

Food Aid

• Funds two programs that provide foreign food aid. These include the Food for Peace Program (PL 480), which is funded at $1.8 billion, and the McGovern-Dole International Food for Education Program, which is funded at $248 million, for an increase of $11 million over fiscal year 2022.

• Summer Meals Program Modernization: Updates the summer food service program to permanently allow states to provide non-congregate meals and summer electronic benefit (EBT) options nationwide to eligible children in addition to meals provided at congregate feeding sites. Non-congregate meals, such as grab-and-go or home delivery, would be provided in rural areas to eligible children, and summer EBT benefits would be capped at $40 per child per month. This provision is fully offset and based largely on the Hunger-Free Summer for Kids Act, which Boozman authored and introduced earlier this Congress.

• Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) EBT Skimming Regulations and Reimbursement: Requires USDA to coordinate with relevant agencies and stakeholders to investigate reports of stolen SNAP benefits through card skimming, cloning and other similar fraudulent methods. This provision aims to identify the extent of the problem, develop methods to prevent fraud and improve security measures, and provide replacement of benefits stolen through these fraudulent actions.

Conservation

• Cracks down on “conservation easements,” which allow tax breaks when land is dedicated for conservation purposes. The IRS has identified the transactions as a method for avoiding taxes. The conservation easement provision was expected to raise between $6 billion and $7 billion.

• SUSTAINS Act: Enacts a House bill that allows corporations and other private entities to contribute funding for conservation projects and authorizes USDA to match up to 75% in matching the donations.

Inputs

• Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA 5) Reauthorization: Reauthorizes pesticide registration and review process user-fee programs administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and increases registration and maintenance fees to support a more predictable regulatory process, create additional process improvements, and provide resources for safety, training, bilingual labeling, and other services to advance the safe and effective use of pesticides.

• Pesticide Registration Review Deadline Extension: Extends deadline for EPA to complete registration review decisions for all pesticide products registered as of October 1, 2007. EPA is facing a significant backlog of pesticide registrations due to a variety of factors over the past several years, which raises potential implications for continued access to numerous crop protection tools. The agency will be allowed to continue its registration review work through October 1, 2026, as a result of this extension.

Climate

• Growing Climate Solutions Act: Incorporates updated language from the Growing Climate Solutions Act, which directs USDA to establish a program to register entities that provide technical assistance and verification for farmers, ranchers and foresters who participate in voluntary carbon markets with the goal of providing information and confidence to producers.

Farm Business

• $1.92 billion for farm programs, which is $55 million above the fiscal year 2022 enacted level. This includes $61 million to resolve ownership and succession of farmland issues, also known as heirs’ property issues. This funding will continue support for various farm, conservation, and emergency loan programs, and help American farmers and ranchers. It will also meet estimates of demand for farm loan programs.

• Funding for specialty crops and remarks on crop insurance/A&O. Some $25 million is being made available for specialty crop equitable relief and report language directing USDA to use its legal authority to index all A&O (crop insurance program) for inflation and provide equitable relief for specialty crops going forward.

Livestock

• Livestock Mandatory Reporting Extension (LMR) Extension: Extends livestock mandatory reporting requirements until September 30, 2023. LMR requires meat packers and importers to report the prices they pay for cattle, hogs, and sheep purchased for slaughter and prices received for meats derived from such species to USDA who then publishes daily, weekly, and monthly public reports detailing these transactions.

Markets

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Whistleblower Program Extension: Enables CFTC to continue payment of salaries, customer education initiatives and non-awards expenses related to the whistleblower program to ensure it can continue to function even when awards obligated to whistleblowers exceed the program fund’s balance at the time of distribution.

Some ag sector items that did NOT make the omnibus package:

Nothing for the proposed farmworker labor reforms from Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and others. The bill also left out legislation to reform cattle markets or appoint a special investigator at USDA to investigate possible anti-competitive behavior in the meatpacking sector.

We’ll be updating this article as more details become available.

More on policy :

Water Resources Bill Reauthorized with a Component that Will Impact Producers
European Union Clinches a Deal on a Carbon Border Tax
U.S.'s “Candid” GMO Corn Conversation With Mexico Results In Changes To Looming Trade Dispute
Senate Clears Annual Defense Policy, Pushing $858 Billion to Military

World Ag Expo Names Top 10 New Products

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 07:44:11 GMT

The notable new products that have been named the Top 10 for the 2011 World Ag Expo range from clothing, to equipment, to hydraulic fluid, to technology.

The 44th annual World Ag Expo 2011 will take place Feb. 8 to 10 at the International Agri-Center show grounds in Tulare, Calif. The expo is the largest annual agricultural show of its kind with 1,600 exhibitors on 2.6 million square feet of show grounds.

2011 Top-10 New Products:

Air Filter Blaster, Salmon River Innovations, LLC, Idaho
A new device that cleans the element of an engine’s canister air filter in seconds helps cut fuel and maintenance costs while improving engine performance and increasing engine life.

Ag Flag, Flag-R-Mon Flag Products/Ag Flag, Atwater, CA
A new water-activated flag saves money, water and effort by eliminating the guesswork in determining when flood irrigation water has advanced to a pre-determined point in a block, check, ditch furrow, row or open field.

AMSOIL Biodegradable Hydraulic Oil, American Synthetic Lubricants, Inc., Superior, WI
A new, biodegradable hydraulic oil from AMSOIL that combines low-toxicity with high lubricity properties offers farmers and ranchers an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional petroleum-based products.

Trimble Connected Farm, Trimble Agriculture, Westminster, CO
Connected Farm, a new system of software and communication services from Trimble takes farm management efficiency to the next level by combining precision farming information collected in the field with data management software and cell phone technology.

T-HEXX Dragonhyde HBC, Hydromer, Inc., Branchburg, NJ
An innovative hoof care product for use in hoof baths offers a nonhazardous, biodegradable alternative to traditional copper sulfate or formaldehyde products. When mixed with water, T-HEXX Dragonhyde Hoof Bath Concentrate creates a long-lasting, highly visible environmental barrier that helps to promote normal hoof health for dairy cows.

EZY-Lift Hydraulic Lift System, Ezy-Lift of California, Inc., Valley Center, CA
In less than 90 seconds, with the push of a button, one person can load up to 2,000 pounds of cargo in the back of a pickup or flatbed truck, using the new model 2000-8.0PT Ezy-Lift.

Jacket With Thumb Hole Sleeve, Udder Tech, Inc., Lakeville, MN
A jacket made of waterproof nylon puts an end to wet, irritated wrists and arms when milking cows

NOx Blue Diesel Exhaust Fluid, Core Fluids, LLC, Arroyo Grande, CA
NOxBlue brand of Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), made by Core-Fluids, LLC, exceeds the purity and quality standards established by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Push Away Grapple, Fritsch Equipment Corp., De Pere, WI
Designed for feeding bagged silage, the Push Away grapple saves time and minimizes ground disturbance when removing feed from the bag. The patent-pending tool has the power to penetrate tightly packed haylage and grasses to completely fill the bucket of a skid-steer or other type of front-end loader in less than 10 seconds.

Yuma Rugged Tablet Computer, Trimble, Corvallis, OR
Built to meet tough military standards for withstanding drops, vibration, immersion and temperature extremes, the new Trimble Yuma rugged tablet computer weighs less than three pounds and is designed to work where farmers and ranchers work.

In addition to the Top-10 New Products, ten Honorable Mention Products have been selected.

A panel of farmers, ranchers and industry professionals from across the U.S. selected the Top 10 and 10 Honorable Mention products from more than 90 entries. The Top 10 New Products will be showcased inside the New Product Pavilion on Expo Lane and R Street.

Information on all 20 of the products can be found at worldagexpo.com .

The notable new products that have been named the Top 10 for the 2011 World Ag Expo range from clothing, to equipment, to hydraulic fluid, to technology.

The 44th annual World Ag Expo 2011 will take place Feb. 8 to 10 at the International Agri-Center show grounds in Tulare, Calif. The expo is the largest annual agricultural show of its kind with 1,600 exhibitors on 2.6 million square feet of show grounds.

2011 Top-10 New Products:

Air Filter Blaster, Salmon River Innovations, LLC, Idaho
A new device that cleans the element of an engine’s canister air filter in seconds helps cut fuel and maintenance costs while improving engine performance and increasing engine life.

Ag Flag, Flag-R-Mon Flag Products/Ag Flag, Atwater, CA
A new water-activated flag saves money, water and effort by eliminating the guesswork in determining when flood irrigation water has advanced to a pre-determined point in a block, check, ditch furrow, row or open field.

AMSOIL Biodegradable Hydraulic Oil, American Synthetic Lubricants, Inc., Superior, WI
A new, biodegradable hydraulic oil from AMSOIL that combines low-toxicity with high lubricity properties offers farmers and ranchers an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional petroleum-based products.

Trimble Connected Farm, Trimble Agriculture, Westminster, CO
Connected Farm, a new system of software and communication services from Trimble takes farm management efficiency to the next level by combining precision farming information collected in the field with data management software and cell phone technology.

T-HEXX Dragonhyde HBC, Hydromer, Inc., Branchburg, NJ
An innovative hoof care product for use in hoof baths offers a nonhazardous, biodegradable alternative to traditional copper sulfate or formaldehyde products. When mixed with water, T-HEXX Dragonhyde Hoof Bath Concentrate creates a long-lasting, highly visible environmental barrier that helps to promote normal hoof health for dairy cows.

EZY-Lift Hydraulic Lift System, Ezy-Lift of California, Inc., Valley Center, CA
In less than 90 seconds, with the push of a button, one person can load up to 2,000 pounds of cargo in the back of a pickup or flatbed truck, using the new model 2000-8.0PT Ezy-Lift.

Jacket With Thumb Hole Sleeve, Udder Tech, Inc., Lakeville, MN
A jacket made of waterproof nylon puts an end to wet, irritated wrists and arms when milking cows

NOx Blue Diesel Exhaust Fluid, Core Fluids, LLC, Arroyo Grande, CA
NOxBlue brand of Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), made by Core-Fluids, LLC, exceeds the purity and quality standards established by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Push Away Grapple, Fritsch Equipment Corp., De Pere, WI
Designed for feeding bagged silage, the Push Away grapple saves time and minimizes ground disturbance when removing feed from the bag. The patent-pending tool has the power to penetrate tightly packed haylage and grasses to completely fill the bucket of a skid-steer or other type of front-end loader in less than 10 seconds.

Yuma Rugged Tablet Computer, Trimble, Corvallis, OR
Built to meet tough military standards for withstanding drops, vibration, immersion and temperature extremes, the new Trimble Yuma rugged tablet computer weighs less than three pounds and is designed to work where farmers and ranchers work.

In addition to the Top-10 New Products, ten Honorable Mention Products have been selected.

A panel of farmers, ranchers and industry professionals from across the U.S. selected the Top 10 and 10 Honorable Mention products from more than 90 entries. The Top 10 New Products will be showcased inside the New Product Pavilion on Expo Lane and R Street.

Information on all 20 of the products can be found at worldagexpo.com .

Farmer Ground-Truths Numbers on Wide Rows, Low Pops and Profitability

Wed, 24 Aug 2022 19:48:33 GMT

How low can a farmer go? Plant 30,000 seeds per acre, or a lean 20,000, or even a bare-bones 5,000, and still maintain profit levels?

Across three years of ongoing field trials, Thomas Hairston is turning wide-row crop speculation into action on his farm: “It’s funny when folks come out to the rows and see all the different populations. I always ask, ‘Which do you think will be the most profitable?’ They always go to the thicker stands—the ones with the biggest planting populations. They’ve been wrong every time.”

What are the keys to profitability on 60” cotton? “If you want to know what happens when you plant 5,000 seeds per acre or any other population, try it in your own field and don’t worry about it if people look at you like you’re crazy,” Hairston adds. “If you want the facts about wide row crops and profitability, get the data from your own farm.”

“Why Not?”

On the level land of Humphreys County, between Silver City and Midnight, Hairston produces corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, and catfish alongside his family at Riven Oak Farms, located in the heart of the Mississippi Delta.

Curious to his core, Hairston , 25, incessantly engineers on-farm research, searching for an extra edge. “We’ve always got some trials going on,” he says. “You have to put in the extra time to constantly improve your operation and find genuine ways to decrease risk and increase profitability.”

(Farm Journal)

At Riven Oak Farms, the typical cotton (irrigated via polypipe) configuration is 2-4-2 on 30” rows, with planting at 40,000 seeds per acre (spa). In 2020, Hairston deviated from the on-farm standard, and planted (cotton behind corn) two half-acre plots on 60” rows—one plot at 40,000 spa spaced by 2.6” and the other at 20,000 spa spaced at 5.23”. (The silty loam plots bumped against 2-4-2 ground.)

The outcome? Hairston’s 20,000 population significantly outyielded his 40,000 population on 60” rows. “The implications are really intriguing. I’m already planting 40,000 on 2-4-2, so if I can go to a 60” configuration and plant half the seed, why not? To be clear, the 60” didn’t yield as good as 2-4-2, but the profitably was the same.”

Dollar Questions

In 2021, Hairston again planted on silty loam, cotton behind cotton, but expanded the trial to eight half-acre plots planted at 5,000 spa; 10,000 spa; 15,000 spa; 20,000 spa; 30,000 spa; and 40,000 spa. The two remaining plots followed the standard 2-4-2 configuration at 40,000.

Overall, the 2021 60” trials yielded 130 lb. less than the 2-4-2, but the overall profitability of 60” versus 2-4-2 was identical (at 2021 commodity levels and input prices). However, the trial revealed a shocker: Hairston’s plots planted at 10,000, 15,000, and 20,000 were his most profitable—either equal or superior to the 2-4-2 plots.

“Most of the savings came from seed costs. If you plant at 40,000 per acre, that about $110 per acre. At 20,000 it’s $55 per acre, and 10,000 is $27.50 per acre. Right off the bat, you’re saving substantially.”

(Farm Journal)

Hairston also reduced fertilizer applications by a fifth. “I normally put down 80 units cotton following corn, but this field where I had the plot was cotton following cotton so I bumped it to 100 and then after the one-fifth cut I came to the 80 units on the 60”,” he describes. “Right there, at this year’s fertilizer prices, that’s about $20-25 saved per acre by cutting out nitrogen, and I believe I could have put out 60 units of nitrogen and been fine.”

However, Hairston believes the plot size masked the potential for even more savings, particularly related to chemical applications. “In my opinion, some real money kicks in on big acres when you can band insecticide early. For example, maybe band your thrips spraying and your first two or three plant bug sprays, cutting those down to an 8” or 15” band. That would save a ton of money and shift a $5-10 insect spray to $2-5. The same goes for plant growth regulators because I’d treat that different on big acres.”

(Farm Journal)

With 20.9” between each seed, how did the plot planted at 5,000 spa fare? From the cab of the picker, it blended with the surrounding cotton, but from the ground, the yield difference was easy to spot, according to Hairston. “There were positions coming out and sticking, with boll size about 30-40% larger than solid-row cotton, but the plants have to do a whole lot of compensating. The yield on the 5,000 was 100 lb. less than the 10,000—basically $100 at dollar cotton, but then again, the 10,000 seed per acre cotton was the most profitable plot in the whole trial.”

Would Hairston plant cotton on big acreage at 10,000 spa? “No, I would not because that’s only a seed every 10.45” and I’d rather go up to 15,000 to ensure I have an adequate final stand.”

Alligator Clay

As Hairston’s trial enters its third year, he will depart from the classic ice cream soil and move the rows into alligator clay—heavy dirt. “Let’s see what happens in gumbo. On my farm, if I had nothing but creekbank dirt, I’d already be on 60” rows right now. But like most farmers, I’ve got mixed fields with some heavy bottoms.”

Bottom line, gumbo will be the true tale-of-the-tape for Hairston’s 60” trial. “It’s hard to grow good cotton on heavy soils because the top-end yield potential is just not there. However, if we can still come out equal to or better on profitability on the heavy soils, we would consider going farm-wide 60”. Certainly, that’d be a couple years down road, but that’s the plan.”

(Farm Journal)

Hairston does not have sky-high expectations for 60” cotton on heavy soils, but he casts doubt to the side. “My starting assumption is that heavier ground is more conducive to 2-4-2, but that’s exactly why I’m doing this trial—to not assume anything. I’m going to find out the facts instead of relying on guesswork, and either way, it’ll be really interesting to see what happens.”

“Try telling someone you’re gonna plant at a drastically reduced seeding rate on 60” rows in heavy soils, and they’ll look at you like you’ve lost your mind,” Hairston adds. “It’ll be interesting to see what the upcoming year’s data will have to say.”

To read more stories from Chris Bennett (cbennett@farmjournal.com — 662-592-1106), see:

Cottonmouth Farmer: The Insane Tale of a Buck-Wild Scheme to Corner the Snake Venom Market

Tractorcade: How an Epic Convoy and Legendary Farmer Army Shook Washington, D.C.

Bagging the Tomato King: The Insane Hunt for Agriculture’s Wildest Con Man

How a Texas Farmer Killed Agriculture’s Debt Dragon

While America Slept, China Stole the Farm

Bizarre Mystery of Mummified Coon Dog Solved After 40 Years

The Arrowhead whisperer: Stunning Indian Artifact Collection Found on Farmland

Where’s the Beef: Con Artist Turns Texas Cattle Industry Into $100M Playground

Fleecing the Farm: How a Fake Crop Fueled a Bizarre $25 Million Ag Scam

Skeleton In the Walls: Mysterious Arkansas Farmhouse Hides Civil War History

US Farming Loses the King of Combines

Ghost in the House: A Forgotten American Farming Tragedy

Rat Hunting with the Dogs of War, Farming’s Greatest Show on Legs

Misfit Tractors a Money Saver for Arkansas Farmer

Government Cameras Hidden on Private Property? Welcome to Open Fields

Farmland Detective Finds Youngest Civil War Soldier’s Grave?

Descent Into Hell: Farmer Escapes Corn Tomb Death

Evil Grain: The Wild Tale of History’s Biggest Crop Insurance Scam

Grizzly Hell: USDA Worker Survives Epic Bear Attack

Farmer Refuses to Roll, Rips Lid Off IRS Behavior

Killing Hogzilla: Hunting a Monster Wild Pig

Shattered Taboo: Death of a Farm and Resurrection of a Farmer

Frozen Dinosaur: Farmer Finds Huge Alligator Snapping Turtle Under Ice

Breaking Bad: Chasing the Wildest Con Artist in Farming History

In the Blood: Hunting Deer Antlers with a Legendary Shed Whisperer

Corn Maverick: Cracking the Mystery of 60-Inch Rows

Against All Odds: Farmer Survives Epic Ordeal

Agriculture’s Darkest Fraud Hidden Under Dirt and Lies

USDA Projects Soybean Supply Dip, Corn Flat

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:49:02 GMT

Corn

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.280 billion bushels, up 96 million from last month. Corn supplies are higher, as a larger crop more than offsets a reduction in beginning stocks based on the Grain Stocks report. Projected feed and residual use is increased 25 million bushels. With supply and use changes essentially offsetting, corn ending stocks are up 5 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.

Corn exports are raised for Mexico and Argentina, with largely offsetting reductions for Russia and Ukraine. Argentina’s 2016/17 exports are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2017 reflecting a slower-than-expected pace of exports to date. Projected 2017/18 food, seed and industrial use for corn in China is raised based on recent trade data indicating a higher-than-expected level of corn product exports. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China and Mexico that are only partially offset by increases for Argentina and Turkey. Global corn stocks, at 201.0 million, are down 1.5 million from last month.

Soybeans and Other Oilseeds

U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.3 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month mainly on lower sunflowerseed, canola, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,431 million bushels, nearly unchanged from last month with higher harvested area offsetting lower yields. Harvested area is projected at a record 89.5 million acres, up 0.8 million. The soybean yield is forecast at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels. With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 44 million bushels. With use projections unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 430 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006/07.

The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively. Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 577.0 million tons, down 1.6 million as reductions for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed are partly offset by increases for cottonseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 347.9 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Higher production for China and Mexico is partly offsetting. Sunflowerseed production is also lower for Russia and Ukraine on lower yields. Rapeseed production is lowered for Australia where yields are impacted by below-normal rainfall.

Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are down 0.4 million tons to 173.9 million on lower soybean and sunflowerseed exports. Soybean exports are lowered for Ukraine while sunflowerseed exports are lowered for Ukraine and Russia. Lower rapeseed exports for Australia are offset by higher exports for Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected down 1.6 million tons from last month to 107.9 million mainly reflecting backyear adjustments that reduced soybean carrying for Brazil and the United States.

Sorghum

Grain sorghum production is forecast down from last month, as a 2.4-bushel per acre increase in yield to 72.2 bushels per acre is more than offset by a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the Small Grains report. Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.8 million tons to 1,319.4 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, consumption, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher, with the largest reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Ethiopia, and Tanzania more than offset by increases for a number of countries including Nigeria, Turkey, and Mozambique. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Historical revisions are made to Nigeria’s corn, sorghum, and millet production estimates to better reflect statistics published by the government.

WHEAT

Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased modestly this month as reduced beginning stocks are partially offset by slightly higher wheat production. Beginning stocks were revised downward in the latest NASS Grain Stocks report while wheat production increased in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary to 1,741 million bushels. Although all wheat production increased minimally from last month, the by-class changes are relatively more significant as larger Durum and Hard Red Spring production more than offset declines in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. Projected 2017/18 feed and residual is reduced 30 million bushels this month to 120 million as the NASS Grain Stocks report indicated lower-than-expected June-August disappearance. Additionally, projected 2017/18 U.S. corn supplies are the second highest on record, which is expected to dampen wheat feed and residual use for the rest of 2017/18. The other wheat use categories are unchanged this month and projected 2017/18 ending stocks are higher at 960 million bushels but still well below last year’s 1,181 million. The projected 2017/18 season-average farm price is unchanged this month at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel but the range is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $4.40 to $4.80.

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are increased, primarily on higher production forecasts for Russia, EU, and India more than offsetting a decline in Australia. Based mainly on harvest results to date, Russia’s 2017/18 wheat production is increased 1.0 million tons to a new record of 82.0 million tons. This is well above last year’s previous record of 72.5 million tons. EU wheat production is raised 2.2 million tons to 151.0 million, largely on higher production in France. Australia’s wheat production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million on persistent dry conditions in most of eastern Australia. This would be Australia’s lowest wheat output since the 2008/09 crop year.

Foreign 2017/18 trade is fractionally higher this month as reduced exports by Australia are offset by increased exports from Canada. Projected imports are lowered for India and Turkey as increased 2017/18 production for both countries is expected to reduce import needs. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater usage by India, EU, and Russia on their increased supplies. Projected global ending stocks are nearly 5.0 million tons higher this month at 268.1 million, which is a new record.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy

The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offset fractionally lower beef and pork production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month largely due to lower expected fourth-quarter carcass weights. The pork production forecast is lowered on smaller-than-expected third-quarter commercial hog slaughter which more than offset higher expected second-half carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised on expectations of increased slaughter later in the year based on hatchery data. The turkey forecast is increased as higher third-quarter slaughter more than offsets expected declines in fourth-quarter slaughter. The 2017 egg production forecast is raised from last month on higher hatching egg production.

For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production more than offset declines in turkey production. Beef production is little changed from last month although first half production is lowered as pasture conditions are expected to slow the pace of placements in the latter part of 2017. However, heavier carcass weights are expected to offset a portion of the decline. Pork production is raised from last month on higher slaughter. In the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released September 28, producers indicated they farrowed about 2 percent more sows in June-August and intend to farrow approximately 1 percent more sows over each of the next two quarters. With larger pig crops in the second half of 2017 and into 2018, pork production is forecast higher. The 2018 broiler and egg production forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts for 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand which is expected to dampen the pace of expansion.

Beef import forecasts are raised in 2017 and 2018 on increased shipments of processing beef from Oceania. The 2017 and 2018 beef export forecasts are raised on strong demand in a number of key trading partners. Pork imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised from last month. The 2017 pork export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2018 export forecast. Annual broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts are unchanged.

Cattle price forecasts are unchanged for 2017 and 2018. Hog price forecasts are lowered for the last quarter of 2017 and into 2018 on larger supplies and pressure from abundant supplies of red meat and poultry. The annual broiler price is forecast slightly lower for 2017 but is unchanged for 2018. Turkey price forecasts are lowered in 2017 and 2018 on slow recovery in demand. Egg price forecasts are raised on near-term demand strength which is expected to carry over into next year.

The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 is raised on a slightly more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. However, forecast cow numbers for late 2017 and 2018 are slightly lower. Fat basis imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised on strength in butter imports but skimsolids imports are lowered for 2017 and unchanged for 2018. Exports on a fat basis are raised for 2017 on stronger butter and cheese exports, and increased sales of butter and anhydrous milkfat are expected to support higher fat basis exports in 2018. Skim-solids exports for 2017 and 2018 are raised, primarily on stronger expected shipments of whey products.

For 2017, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are lowered on large supplies, but the whey price is unchanged at the midpoint and the cheese price forecast is raised on current demand strength. For 2018, continued demand strength for cheese is reflected in a higher price forecast, while butter, NDM, and whey prices are lowered on larger supplies and pressure from international prices. The Class III price is raised for 2017 on stronger cheese prices, but for 2018, lower whey prices are expected to more than offset the increases in cheese prices, and the price forecast is lowered. The Class IV price is lowered for both years due to lower forecast butter and NDM prices. The 2017 all milk price forecast range is $17.75 to $17.85 per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint, but the 2018 price is lowered to $17.45 to $18.35 per cwt.

Cotton

The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 643,000 bales, largely in Texas and Georgia. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is reduced 400,000 bales to 14.5 million, due to reduced U.S. production and strong competitor shipments. Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales below the previous month’s forecast. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 32.5 percent is virtually unchanged from the previous month’s forecast, and the highest since 2008/09. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is 55.0 to 65.0 cents per pound; the midpoint of 60.0 cents is unchanged from the previous month’s projection.

The global cotton supply and demand forecasts for 2017/18 include relatively small increases from the previous month for production, consumption, and trade. Production is raised about 100,000 bales as larger expected crops in Argentina, Brazil, and Greece more than offset the reduction in the forecast for the United States. Vietnam is the primary driver behind a 250,000-bale increase in projected world consumption, while a 440,000-bale increase in projected 2017/18 world cotton trade reflects increases in India, Australia, and Brazil that more than offset lower expected U.S. exports.

Read the full report.

Commodity Forecasts

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:38:06 GMT

This year is definitely one that’s going to require a plan that drives your marketing moves. In addition to structure, flexibility is key to capture a run up in prices along the way. A little luck doesn’t hurt, either. The tables are turned, as the livestock sector looks forward to profitable days ahead while crop prices take a hit. The following is a snapshot from leading experts on how 2014 is shaping up for the major commodities.

Prices, Exports Stay Rosy for Beef Cattle

Beef cattle fundamentals are shaping up to deliver a profitable and possibly record-breaking 2014. It’s no coincidence that as corn prices declined, cattle prices rallied. Stocker and feeder cattle have posted 25% to 30% price gains since May, boosting the feeder cattle index price for 750-lb. steers to more than $165 per cwt. Falling corn prices also provided a much-needed boost for feedlot operators. After two years of negative margins, cattle feeders are back in the black.
According to Sterling Marketing Inc. of Vale, Ore., feedyards saw profits of nearly $123 per head in early November.

Analysts point to declining supplies of cattle as the foundation of a strong market. The Jan. 1, 2013, inventory of beef cows was the lowest in 60 years, and number crunchers say cow inventories will be smaller again in early 2014.

Feedyards and stockers will aggressively seek cattle of all sizes, which will support higher calf and feeder cattle prices.

Robust beef exports add to a bright outlook. The U.S. Meat Export Federation says in the first eight months of 2013, beef exports are up 1% in volume and 10% in value to 767,017 metric tons valued at $4.01 billion. The export value per head of fed slaughter beef in August averaged $253.87, up $46.16 from 2012.

Can anything derail a booming cattle market in 2014? Analysts are nervous about ever-increasing retail beef prices and the effect on demand. Average retail beef prices in August 2013, the latest data available, was a record $5.39 per pound, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service.

Exports Dominate U.S. Dairy Forecast

Dairy economists are pointing to exports as the brightest constellation in 2014—with good reason: U.S. dairy exports in 2013 mark a fourth consecutive record year, as well as a new high for the ninth time in 10 years. U.S. dairy exports rose nearly 30% in value to $6.6 billion, compared with year-earlier levels, says Alan Levitt with the U.S. Dairy Export Council. In volume, exports of milk solids climbed by about 18% to 3.9 billion pounds.

U.S. dairy exports are on track to account for an impressive 15.4% of the nation’s 2013 milk output. “Five years ago, we exported just 5% of our milk production,” Levitt says.

Adding to 2014’s optimistic outlook are improving margins for producers fueled by strong milk prices and lower feed costs. “Income over feed costs this year look to be the best since 2007,” Levitt says.

Despite these factors, market watchers see a few clouds ahead. One feed source not expected to get any cheaper is alfalfa hay. Top-quality hay is $280 to $300 per ton.

Sluggish domestic consumption and high product inventories also remain concerns. Even so, analysts expect to see a surge in milk production as dairies seek to boost profits. That’s likely to pressure milk prices.

“Milk prices won’t collapse, but they may drop to $16.70 per cwt. by February,” says Robert Cropp, professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Jerry Dryer, editor of the Dairy & Food Market Analyst newsletter, expects Class III prices to dip to $16 per cwt. in the third quarter of 2014 before rising to $16.75 in the fourth quarter. Class IV, which represent dairy powder products, will see strong demand overseas, just as Dairy Farmers of America’s new powder plant comes online in Nevada.

Pork Industry Ready to Hog More Corn

This past year was a turnaround time for cash-strapped hog producers. Low herd numbers and much lower corn prices has returned profitability to the industry. Chris Hurt, a Purdue Extension ag economist, says during the first half of 2014, hog producers should see profits of approximately $30 a head.

“While that sounds like a lot, producers are really just offsetting drought losses and doing a little better,” Hurt says. “These are good returns. By next spring and summer, we should see extraordinary returns—maybe $40 per head.”

Ron Plain, University of Missouri Extension livestock marketing economist, says producers are finally able to start rebuilding breeding herds.

“History says it takes five months of profits before we start to see herd expansion,” he says. “October 2013 was the fifth month of profits, so we’re expecting producers to start expanding breeding herds; that will give us more hogs on the market starting in the fourth quarter of 2014.”

By next summer, Hurt predicts the U.S. breeding herd will have expanded by 2% to 3%.

Higher retail costs have resulted from higher production costs. The retail price of pork in August 2013 was at a record high of $3.75 per pound, and it has affected consumption. Since 2007, the average American has reduced yearly pork consumption by about 5 lb.

Even though prices have been high, one pork cut is still in high demand—bacon. “We go through food fads,” Plain says. “Bacon is an ‘in’ food right now.”

Additionally, U.S. pork is in a great position to increase exports. “That’s three home runs,” Hurt says. “If pork producers made it through to this point, they are survivors.”

Prepare for a Stagnant Corn Market

Even after numerous production challenges in 2013, USDA still predicted a record corn crop, causing corn prices to tumble to $4 to $5. With corn prices still struggling, will farmers stick with corn this year? Current talk in the trade suggests more than 4 million corn acres will be lost, but Farm Journal columnist Bob Utterback thinks closer to 3 million acres will take a hit, but in lower-production regions.

Greg Wagner, president of GWX-Ag Advisors and an AgWeb market analyst, agrees. “There’s widespread expectations that there will be a reduction in corn acreage and an increase in soybean acreage,” he says, “but it will not be nearly as dramatic as some are forecasting.” He predicts a reduction of just 1 million to 1.5 million acres.

“We’ve had a surge in global corn production,” Wagner says, citing areas such as South America and Ukraine that have boosted their production levels in recent years. “But the biggest wild card might be China,” he says.

The first half of 2014 looks quiet. Utterback predicts that through May, corn might only have a 50¢ to $2 trading range, depending on the weather. From June through September, though, he forecasts that the market will become violent as crop conditions are reported.

“In light of the global demand side, the demographics of the world, the number of people moving up the food chain and production capacity, agriculture and producers as a whole have prospect for higher prices,” Wagner says. “But not necessarily $8 corn and $15 beans.”

With corn prices what they are, soybeans look more enticing. “If it’s good enough for you to shift acres, then prices are good enough to sell,” Utterback says. “The real danger is not what the flat price does; it’s what the margin does.”

Price Soybeans Early

If you didn’t sell soybeans right off the combine this fall, you might want to empty your bins soon. Prices could easily tumble toward spring and early summer. “Nearby futures of $12.75 have come down, but they’re still at a good place for producers—more than $1 above average production costs,” says Chad Hart, ag economist at Iowa State University.

“The market is saying to sell,” he says. Expect gradual price deterioration through 2014, he adds, noting that old-crop soybeans are an inverted market with little upside potential. Because of that, he doesn’t expect current levels to hold; deferred months are deeply discounted.

“The bulk of Chinese buying is now behind us,” says Darrel Good, University of Illinois ag economist.

Brazil and Argentina have planted a record number of soybean acres, and the crop is off to a good start. It makes sense to price at least some 2014 sales on rallies, “but I would not be aggressively sold,” Good says. “The South American crop is not made yet.”

Producers can wait until crop insurance level guarantees are announced in February, based off November 2014 futures. “Crop insurance may allow producers to have a significant amount of downside risk covered,” Good says.

The positive news for soybeans is on the demand side. USDA forecasts exports of 1.45 billion bushels for the current marketing year.

Domestic soybean crush has also marched higher, but “supplies are going up faster than demand,” Good explains.

Two bearish factors are rationing demand. One is production of other oils, particularly palm oil. The second is the reduction of biodiesel targets in the Renewable Fuels Standard proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Big Wheat Crop, Mildly Bearish Prices

While prices will be somewhat bearish thanks to a large corn supply for feed and strong wheat production globally, experts say 2014 will be a good year for U.S. wheat.

July 2014 wheat futures have been declining for several months, says Brian Williams, economist for Mississippi State University Extension Service. USDA has not published its 2014 acreage estimates, but private estimates indicate the crop will be larger than in 2013.

The international market will be an important factor for U.S. wheat prices in 2014, experts say. Harvests in Australia and Argentina, and the quality of those crops, will be key.

Prices in hard red winter wheat country have averaged about $7 per bushel this year. While prices are likely to be slightly lower for the 2014/15 marketing year, strong protein and milling characteristics coupled with tight ending stocks should keep prices favorable.

“I think it’s safe to say that right now, if you were projecting to June of 2014, that we will have a 1 billion bushel hard red winter wheat crop,” says Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State Extension economist. If that’s the case, then in 2014/15, “we will rebuild the hard red winter wheat stocks.”

There are several other significant international stories playing out, says Ed Usset at University of Minnesota Extension. China imports large amounts of wheat, while Canada is experiencing logistical problems in hauling off its blockbuster wheat crop. Basis levels also are reportedly wide.

That, coupled with the fact that 15% of wheat production worldwide goes to feed, makes it difficult to imagine how wheat could mount a great upward price surge. In general, wheat experiences about three major market highs: once during planting in the fall, once early in the year and once in May right before harvest, explains David Reinbott, University of Missouri Extension.

“If you missed that October sale, I’d probably hold off ‘til January or February,” he says. “Once you get past the first of March, it really starts to go down pretty hard.”

China Holds All the Cotton Cards

Cotton producers could be in for another wild ride in 2014 as the Chinese government sells its stockpile and announces new policies for the 2014/15 growing season.

O.A. Cleveland, an agricultural economist at Mississippi State University, expects prices to return to 80¢ or 90¢, with the usual rallies early in the year and during planting season. He thinks the Chinese government will refrain from dumping its reserves on the market for fear of undercutting the value of its reserve and hurting its domestic producers.

Jon Devine, a senior economist for Cotton Incorporated, isn’t quite as bullish about crop prices as Cleveland. Devine expects the market to go sideways until spring, when China will announce its reforms for the growing season. The rumor, Devine says, is that the Chinese will move away from making stockpile purchases and toward direct payments.

Cleveland forecasts the 2014 cotton crop to be a little smaller, but the high yields of recent years are here to stay, he says. To take out options for downside protection, John Robinson, agricultural economist at Texas A&M University, recommends farmers buy “near-the-money” put options and sell a “deep out-of-the money option” as a way to buffer a decline from revenue insurance policies.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee projects world cotton production will outpace consumption by roughly 2 million tons during the 2013/14 season. Supply and demand will come back into alignment during the 2014/15 season, which would bolster prices.

You can e-mail Sara Schafer at sschafer@farmjournal.com .

Read extended commentary for each of the featured commodities at www.agweb.com/2014_outlooks

Perspective Column; October Top Producer

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:31:06 GMT

Copyrighted content, as first published in the October 2000 edition of TOP PRODUCER magazine.

I see many familiar faces at national farm organization meetings. In fact, too many. When you go to different annual events and run into the same guys you saw at last week’s meetings, a few observations pop into your mind.

Missing in action. First, it is reasonable to wonder why there are not more people involved in ag organizations. To be sure, the number of commercial farmers is dropping, but it would seem logical to have more than a few hundred working in the organizations of the profession.

My own completely unscientific estimate is about 3% of all farmers get involved in professional organizations--not just hold a membership. While the fraction is minuscule, it is not out of line with trends of civic involvement across the country.

In his book, Bowling Alone, researcher Robert Putnam tracks indicators for community participation as various as church attendance and bowling leagues. One overall trend has emerged from the last few decades: The peak for all forms of civic engagement was in the 1960s, and it has declined steadily for traditional groups (churches, clubs, professional organizations).

Agriculture is mirroring this larger social shift. Farmers don’t join farm groups readily, but then they don’t join any other groups either. This loss of connectedness may also have much to do with the undercurrent of dissatisfaction in rural America.

Secondly, meetings themselves are passé. All across the Farm Belt, energetic efforts by Cooperative Extension, for example, are playing to empty houses or the faithful few. Our farm population no longer socializes mainly within the occupational group, either. Farm Bureau, Grange and Cattlemen’s meetings served a crucial role in providing opportunities to just be together--a treat for isolated farm residents. Today we are far from isolated, thanks to technology and transportation advances. In fact, our relative isolation in the country is now something viewed with envy by many urban neighbors.

Minority rules. The result is meetings populated by a tiny number of producers who find some personal value in this type of activity. By simply attending, they essentially represent all of us. Accordingly, disproportionate power is available to this “Thin Green Line” of participants. As one observer put it, “Policy is made by those who show up.”

By bucking the trend, these volunteers are exploiting the apathy of the many. In near-empty halls of freedom created by our democracy, their words echo loudly, often uncontested. By default, they have control of the institutions of our profession.

The disenchantment with civic and professional responsibility cannot be explained by one cause, but it is made possible by the explosion of personal choice. For example, when there were few other social activities, going to church wasn’t such an odious thought. It is our inability to choose wisely from a wide range of activities (most notably TV viewing) that perhaps threatens our traditional social structure most.

The decline in participation is also linked to a rise in individual empowerment and a simultaneous loss of the “we’re all in this together” mentality. When some are doing markedly better than most, it becomes obvious that solidarity may not apply. Time in organizational meetings is time we aren’t helping ourselves, we reason. However, the risk of noninvolvement is about to increase dramatically.

For many corn and soybean farmers the dependence on government program subsidies has become absolute--often reaching the majority of net farm income. Compare the $22.7 billion from the government this year with net cash income of about $56 billion.

For better or worse, subsidies are our life. Meanwhile, organizations like Farm Bureau and National Corn Growers supply the voices that testify in hearings and visit legislative offices--essentially negotiating the next farm program for producers.

Luxury? The bottom line is that the Thin Green Line could determine the fate of many of our farms. Such representation-by-dereliction, regardless of the results, is a wholesale abandonment of professional accountability and self-responsibility.

Unlike much of the U.S. economy, agriculture is struggling. The fad of indolence is a luxury we farmers cannot afford.

Even with the stakes this high, I doubt a major shift in farmer involvement. However, I think those who make a commitment to work with their peers will reap larger benefits than at any time in our history. The rewards for participation in the Thin Green Line have never been greater on the personal or professional level.

John Phipps farms near Chrisman, Ill.

New Tariff Aid Plan Offers Single Payment for All Non-Specialty Crops

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:25:31 GMT

As USDA worked to craft a second year of tariff aid payments under the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) they faced two significant challenges: a significant pushback from corn growers who feel they were shortchanged by the penny per bushel payment they received in 2018 and a desire to not skew planting intentions with a 2019 crop that is largely still in seed bags. USDA offered up its solution to both problems on Thursday with a second year MFP plan that will deliver payments at a single rate for all covered commodities.

Each county will be assigned an MFP payment rate based on historical production. All growers in a county will receive the same rate, regardless of the eligible crop grown. Payments will be based on reported planted acres for 2019 which cannot exceed 2018 plantings.

USDA did not release information on payment rates in a call with reporters announcing the program.

“Unfortunately, when the Chinese decided late in the game, after several visits to, to renege on many the (trade) commitments they’d already made, to his credit, President Trump immediately directed me to again create a program,” USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said in a call with press to announce details of the program. “Because he knew that farmers would bear the brunt of this lack of a trade deal with China once again. So he has demonstrated his great affection and affinity for America’s, farmers and ranchers and he does know that because of the agricultural trade surplus, our farmers and producers, ranchers are going to bear the brunt of these trade disputes disproportionately.”

Program payments will be split into three tranches, the first coming as soon as late July. Second and third payments would come in late fall and early 2020 respectively, according to Perdue. The later two rounds of payments could be cancelled if the U.S. and China can resolve the trade dispute, Perdue said.

Covered crops are: alfalfa hay, barley, canola, corn, crambe, dry peas, extra-long staple cotton, flaxseed, lentils, long grain and medium grain rice, mustard seed, dried beans, oats, peanuts, rapeseed, safflower, sesame seed, small and large chickpeas, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower seed, temperate japonica rice, upland cotton, and wheat.

Dairy producers will receive a per hundredweight payment based on production history similar to the 2018 program while hog producers will receive payment based on inventory in a specific time frame. USDA indicated that rates and the time frame for determining hog inventories will be announced at a later date.

Tree nut producers, fresh sweet cherry producers, cranberry producers, and fresh grape producers will receive a payment based on 2019 acres of production.

The overall scope of tariff aid has expanded from $12 billion in 2018 to $16 billion this year. That expansion comes because USDA took a broader look at trade distorting practices according to USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson.

“We account for some other variables such as repeated distortionary trade policies by China and other countries that have contributed to the slow pace of market adjustment and trade that we’ve seen for agricultural production,” Johansson said. “So that brings us to the $16 billion level.”

Of that $16 billion, the bulk, $14.5 billion is targeted for direct payments to farmers. Of the remainder, $1.4 billion is slated for commodity purchases through the Food Purchase and Distribution Program and $100 million is to be issued through the Agricultural Trade Promotion Program to assist market development.

President Trump Signs Farm Bill

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:19:34 GMT

President Donald Trump signed H.R. 2, the Agriculture Improvement Act, better known as the 2018 Farm Bill, in a White House ceremony Thursday afternoon.

The signing ceremony capped a long journey for the bill which saw bitter divisions over proposed work requirements for food stamp recipients, but ultimately passed with overwhelming majorities in both chambers of Congress.

“By signing this bill we are protecting our crop insurance programs and funding that producers rely on in times of disaster,” Trump said. “Through fires, floods and freezing weather, we will always stand with American farmers.

“With the passage of the farm bill we are delivering to the farmers and ranchers, who are the heart and soul of America, all sorts of things that they never even thought possible. We are ensuring that American agriculture will always feed our families, nourish our communities, power commerce and inspire our nation. And I’m opening up massive new markets in order to do things with other countries.”

One of the most significant changes to the bill will allow growers to eventually choose between the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) annually starting in 2021. Under the previous bill, farmers were required to choose one program or the other for the five-year life of the bill.

The bill allows for up to a 15% increase in reference prices depending on market conditions. It also provides adjustments to lessen sharp discrepancies in payments for neighboring counties.

Base acres that have been converted to grassland will not be eligible for ARC or PLC, but land owners can apply for a Conservation Stewardship Program contract at $18 per acre.

President Trump just this morning reopened the dispute over the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), better known as food stamps. USDA issued new rules that would restrict state’s ability to waive work requirements for SNAP recipients. At the signing ceremony the president said he is directing his administration to focus on welfare reform.

The president’s signature marks the first time since 2002 a farm bill has been approved in the same year that the previous farm bill expired.

Just prior to signing the farm bill, President Trump gave notice on Twitter that he was about to sign the bill by sharing video from the 2005 Emmy Awards show where Trump sang the theme to the TV show Green Acres alongside actress Megan Mullally.

Farm Bill signing in 15 minutes! #Emmys #TBT pic.twitter.com/KtSS17xvIn
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 20, 2018

For more details of the farm bill read these stories:

The 2018 Farm Bill: What You Need to Know

A Farm Bill Emerges With Bipartisan Support

Farm Bill Has Support of Dairy Groups for Risk Management Programs

AgriTalk: No “Whiff of Veto” on Farm Bill

Ag Retailers Association: Farm Bill Misses 6 Opportunities

Organic Production Boasts Big Wins in Farm Bill

The 2018 Farm Bill: What You Need to Know

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:19:05 GMT

The following summary of the Commodity Title of the 2018 Farm Bill was created by the office of House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Tx.)

Economic conditions facing farm country are undeniably bleak. USDA recently announced net farm income is projected to drop 12 percent in 2018, falling to levels not experienced since 2002 when adjusted for inflation. Title I of the conference report exists to aid producers struggling with poor market conditions and the countless other challenges impacting their operations each day. Passage of the conference report will provide certainty that an extension of the 2014 Farm Bill could not. The agreement reauthorizes and strengthens the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) options through 2023, improves the dairy safety net, continues standing disaster programs, and includes several common‐sense improvements to U.S. farm policy.

Enhances Farm Policy and Provides Additional Flexibility

PLC provides assistance to producers when the market price for a covered commodity falls to critically low levels (below the statutory reference price). ARC provides assistance to producers when actual crop revenue for a covered commodity falls below 86 percent of the benchmark revenue. Producers electing ARC can choose between county (CO) and farm‐level (IC) coverage.

Updated election options: The conference report offers producers a new choice between ARC and PLC on a crop‐by‐crop and farm‐by‐farm basis, applied jointly to the 2019 and 2020 crop years. Beginning in crop year 2021, producers will have the flexibility to make an annual decision between ARC and PLC on a crop‐by‐crop and farm‐by‐farm basis.

Effective Reference Prices: The conference report allows PLC Reference Prices to adjust with improvements in market prices. This Effective Reference Price is calculated as the greater of 85 percent of the 5‐year Olympic average price and the PLC Reference Price established in the 2014 Farm Bill. In no case can the Effective Reference Price be more than 115 percent of the PLC Reference Price (or less than the PLC Reference Price), shown in the table below.

Optional nationwide yield update: Beginning in crop year 2020, owners of all farms in the country will have the opportunity to update the program yield used on the farm to calculate assistance under PLC, similar to the update opportunity provided in the 2014 Farm Bill. The update is intended to benefit producers who sustained multiple years of losses during the 2008‐2012 crop years (the previous update period) for which the 2014 update was less effective.

Producers may update the yield on the farm for each covered commodity to 90 percent of the average yield per planted acre on the farm from 2013‐2017—ignoring years where the covered commodity was not planted on the farm—multiplied by the yield update factor for the covered commodity listed in the table below. For any year in which the yield on the farm was less than 75 percent of the county average yield from 2013‐2017, owners may plug 75 percent of the county average yield.

For example, assume the average yield per planted acre on the farm from 2013‐2017 for wheat was 35 bu/ac. The producer could update the PLC yield to 30.8 bu/ac (or 90% x 35 bu/ac x 0.9767).

ARC‐CO improvements: The conference report makes several targeted improvements to enhance the efficacy of ARC‐CO. The conference report:

Increases the yield plug from 70 percent to 80 percent of the county transitional yield.
Incorporates the Effective Reference Price into the calculation of benchmark revenue.
Adds a trend adjustment factor that will function similar to the factor utilized in crop insurance policies.
Creates a pilot program that will allow the Secretary the flexibility to divide up to 25 large counties into sub‐county units with independently calculated ARC payment rates.
Requires the Secretary to establish guarantees for irrigated and nonirrigated yields in each county.
Prioritizes the use of RMA data for calculating county yields in accordance with H.R. 4654.
Provides assistance based on the county of the farm’s physical location.
Requires USDA to publish payment rates and program data in a more timely manner.

Targets assistance to land in active production: The conference report suspends ARC and PLC payments on farms that have been entirely in grass or pasture since 2009 to ensure the farm safety net is targeted to those farms that are producing covered commodities. Recognizing that farms in grass are conserving natural resources, the conference report guarantees those farms an opportunity to participate in a 5‐year grassland incentive contract under the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) at a rate of $18 per acre.

Improves the Marketing Assistance Loan

Harvest is often the lowest point of the year for commodity prices. The marketing loan allows farmers to pledge their crop as collateral and receive a loan for a portion of the crop’s value, providing flexibility to market the crop when prices improve. The conference report increases the loan rates for certain commodities to more accurately reflect current market prices and provide more relevant assistance to farmers.

Strengthens the Dairy Safety Net

All sectors of production agriculture have been struggling to cope with a period of chronically low prices, but perhaps none more so than the dairy sector. Recognizing these challenges, in February Congress passed the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA) which made an $800 million investment in the Margin Protection Program (MPP) and lifted the cap on livestock insurance expenditures. The conference report renames MPP as Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) and builds on the BBA investment by offering new coverage levels for the first 5 million pounds of production, drastically reducing premiums on catastrophic coverage levels for larger producers, and eliminating the restriction between the margin program (formerly MPP, now DMC) and Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) insurance.

Increases coverage options: The conference report adds $8.50, $9.00, and $9.50 coverage levels for the first 5 million pounds of covered milk production. Additionally, the conference report expands the range of production allowed to be covered, from 5 percent up to 95 percent of production history.

Rewards risk management strategies: For dairy operations that choose to make a 5‐year decision to lock in a coverage level and coverage percentage for the life of the 2018 Farm Bill, premium rates are reduced by 25 percent.

Offers flexibility and reduces certain premiums for large operations: The conference report allows dairies with covered production in excess of 5 million pounds to enroll in $8.50, $9.00, or $9.50 coverage under Tier I and to make an independent coverage level election in Tier II. Additionally, as noted in the table that follows, premiums for $5.00 coverage in Tier II are reduced by 88 percent (91 percent if the premium is discounted for 5‐year coverage) in an effort to make catastrophic coverage levels more affordable.

Provides access to more risk management tools: The conference report eliminates the restriction on participating in DMC and LGM crop insurance. This flexibility, along with the new Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy‐RP) insurance policy developed by the American Farm Bureau Federation, will provide multiple options to address risk for dairy farmers.

Provides equitable relief for 2018 MPP participation: The conference report allows dairy operations that were prohibited from participating in MPP following the premium reductions enacted via the BBA (due to enrollment in an LGM contract) to retroactively enroll in coverage.

Incentivizes participation in revamped program: Recognizing MPP did not provide an adequate safety net for dairy farmers, the conference report provides dairy operations the opportunity to utilize 75 percent of the net premium paid for MPP from 2014‐2017 as a credit for future DMC premiums. Alternatively, operations can elect to receive 50 percent of net premium as a direct refund.

Improves Vital Disaster Programs

Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP): LIP provides assistance to livestock producers in the event of the death or forced sale of livestock due to an eligible cause of loss. The conference report updates the eligible causes of loss to include disease and deaths of unweaned livestock, so all livestock death losses are consolidated under one program (whereas certain losses were previously covered under ELAP).

Livestock Forage Program (LFP): LFP provides feed cost replacement for livestock producers in the event of forage loss due to severe drought. The conference report maintains this critical assistance for livestock producers.

Emergency Assistance For Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm‐raised Fish (ELAP): ELAP provides assistance to producers of livestock, honey bees, and farm‐raised fish to aid in the reduction of losses not covered under other disaster programs. The conference report ensures ELAP assistance will cover the inspection of herds for cattle fever tick and removes the arbitrary payment limitation on ELAP assistance.

Tree Assistance Program (TAP): TAP offers cost share assistance to eligible orchardists who suffer loss or damage to tree groves. Producers may receive 65 percent of the cost of replanting trees or 50 percent of the cost to remove damaged limbs and vines. The conference report increases the cost share to 75 percent for beginning farmers and veterans.

Maintains Current Administrative Provisions

Payment limitations and AGI means testing: The conference report maintains the current payment limitation of $125,000 in assistance from ARC/PLC per person or entity. The separate limit for peanuts is maintained and doubling for spouses continues to apply. Additionally, participation continues to be limited to persons or entities with less than $900,000 in average adjusted gross income (AGI). The conference report removes Loan Deficiency Payments (LDPs) and Marketing Loan Gains (MLGs) from counting toward the payment limitation.

Actively Engaged in Farming (AEF) regulations: The conference report maintains current AEF regulations and continues to ensure all individuals eligible for the farm safety net are required to contribute land, labor, or capital to the farm operation AND provide the necessary amount of labor and/or management. The conference report amends the definition of family to include first cousins, nieces, and nephews to ensure family farms are not subjected to cumbersome regulations only intended for non‐family operations.

Farm Bill Deal Includes Key Commodity Program Changes

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:18:35 GMT

Key changes:

Adjusted loan rates
Annual choice between ARC and PLC
Opportunity to update yield data
Grassland to be removed from base acres

The four key ag committee leaders announced agreement in principle on a final farm bill Thursday. That deal includes some key changes to the Commodity Title of the bill, including adjustments sought by farm groups, according to Pro Farmer Washington Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer.

The first key change according to Wiesemeyer comes in a provision to increase loan rates while allowing for an annual election between the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. Under the previous farm bill, growers made a single selection between the two programs for the life of the farm bill.

Wiesemeyer told AgriTalk Radio Show host Chip Flory that growers will have the opportunity to adjust historical yield data to minimize the impact of drought years and other anomalies.

“On ARC, I think corn and soybean producers got a win here,” Wiesemeyer said. “They’re going to use trend adjusted yields similar to crop insurance. There’s going to be a new t-yield plug under the ARC, and then there’s going to be a new, what they’ve told me, cascade for determining yields beginning with RMA yields, that’s Risk Management Agency yields. The bottom line is I think the majority of farmers are going to like it because it’s going to adjust some areas that they thought were too rigid in the 2014 farm bill.”

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres will be increased from 24 million to 27 million under the new farm bill, according to Wiesemeyer. He said a portion of that 3-million-acre increase will be held aside for a grassland reserve program.

That grassland reserve is key because the bill will also remove continuous grassland from a farmer’s base acres, according to Wiesemeyer.

“If you haven’t planted those base acres for a designated number of years, you’re going to lose those base acres, but they’re going to be incentivized some way,” he said. “It looks like some of that former grassland can go into a Conservation Reserve earmarked for grassland, but you will not be able to increase your base acres from what you had in the 2014 farm bill despite conjecture to the contrary.”

Wiesemeyer expects the farm bill conference report to be released early next week after the proposal is scored by the Congressional Budget Office.

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) told reporters on Wednesday that he expects the farm bill to be taken up as a stand-alone bill in the Senate. Wiesemeyer said that may not be the case in the House, where the farm bill could be attached to an omnibus spending bill.

“It depends on, when they whip the bill, how many Republicans say they’re going to vote for it,” he said. “If they don’t have the majority of Republicans vote for it then there could be a last-minute effort to just attach it to that must-pass spending bill.”

In a recorded statement to reporters on Thursday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Tex.) said he has not talked to House leadership yet about timing of a final vote or whether the farm bill will be packaged with another measure.

Hear Jim Wiesemeyer’s full analysis of the farm bill deal on AgriTalk in the clip below:

Lawmakers Reach Farm Bill Deal by Dumping Food-Stamp Rules

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:18:31 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Democrats and Republicans said they reached a tentative deal on farm legislation after jettisoning controversial work requirements for food stamp recipients demanded by President Donald Trump and conservatives in the House.

Lawmakers said Thursday they expect both chambers to take up the legislation as soon as next week after House-Senate negotiators resolved differences between their versions of the agriculture measures. The bill would renew farm subsidies, federal crop insurance and food aid for low-income families for five years.

House Agriculture Chairman Mike Conaway of Texas and Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts of Kansas, along with the top Democrats on the panels, said they reached a tentative deal without detailing all the provisions. Farm programs under current law began to expire Sept. 30.

“The certainty that the farm bill brings to the table for the next five years is the win,” Conaway said.

Work Rules

The biggest stumbling block in the debate over the farm bill, H.R. 2., has been over expanding work requirements for many people who receive food stamps. House Republicans had proposed making older food stamp recipients and those with older children comply with work requirements, while Senate negotiators opposed those changes.

The House provisions were left out of the final bill, according to Roberts. He said the bill strengthens existing work requirements without adding new ones and without shifting food stamp funding into job training.

“It’s more the Senate version than the House version,” Conaway said, adding that the bill will include more provisions to root out food-stamp fraud. “Everything we had in the House bill was important but we made the compromises we needed to make to get this deal done.”

Another snag resolved by negotiators was a push by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke to enact more permissive logging regulations. Roberts said the compromise involves easing the ability of loggers to salvage wood from fire-damaged areas.

Small Changes

Minor changes may be made once the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office evaluates the bill’s impact on the deficit. Lawmakers said the final version will be made public next week. Roberts said the deal hasn’t yet been presented to Trump.

Collin Peterson of Minnesota, the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, predicted the bill would get strong support from lawmakers in his party.

Conservatives indicated displeasure. Asked what he thought about the farm bill, GOP Representative Ted Yoho of Florida said “not much” when he came out of a briefing on the agreement.

In September, Trump tweeted: “Pass the Farm Bill with SNAP work requirements!” SNAP refers to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps.

The bill doesn’t include a provision championed by Senator Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, that would have tightened income limits on farm program payment eligibility.

“You are going to have Wall Street bankers getting subsidies who aren’t actively engaged in the business of farming, they don’t have dirt under their fingernails,” he said.

The bill includes a provision that would make hemp a legal agricultural commodity after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky championed the proposal, even joining the farm bill conference committee to ensure it would be incorporated. Among other changes to existing law, hemp will be removed from the federal list of controlled substances and hemp farmers will be able to apply for crop insurance.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

China Targets U.S. Farm Imports With Tariffs on Soy, Corn

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:12:54 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Trade tensions between the U.S. and China ratcheted higher after the Asian nation said it will follow through on plans to levy tariffs on a range of American farm goods including soybeans and corn.

An additional 25 percent tariff will levied on about $50 billion of U.S. imports, China’s Ministry of Finance said Saturday in a statement on its website. Tariffs on about $34 billion of those imports will start July 6, covering agricultural products including: soy, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy products, nuts and vegetables.

Farm commodities have been a key battleground in the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. China previously announced plans to impose 25 percent duties on products including soybeans, wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton and beef in response to proposed tariffs from the U.S. In April, the Asian nation started levying additional taxes on American fruit, nuts, pork and wine.

In 2017, China’s agriculture imports from U.S. were worth $24.1 billion, the People’s Daily reported on May 24, citing customs data. That’s about 19 percent of total farm imports worth $125.86 billion, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data.

SOYBEANS

China still buys more soybeans from the U.S. than any other agricultural commodity, in a trade that was worth $14 billion last year. It’s the world’s biggest importer and America’s largest buyer. While about a third of U.S. production goes to the Asian country annually, China last year bought more from Brazil. The existing import duty is 3 percent.

China is the world’s biggest pork producer and consumer and its industry relies on soybean meal, a product of soybean crushing, to feed its pigs. Rising costs for hog farmers risk increasing the price of pork, a component of the country’s consumer price index.

CORN

China’s corn imports from the U.S. surged almost 240 percent last year to about 757,000 tons, worth $160 million, according to customs data. That compares with 1.8 million tons imported from Ukraine. Total imports were 2.8 million tons in 2017, well below its 7.2 million ton low-tariff-rate quota. So-called in-quota corn imports incur a 1 percent duty.

The world’s second-biggest corn producer and consumer has been grappling with a glut that’s prompted the government to encourage lower domestic output and increase use of the grain. Chinese buyers can also be wary of U.S. corn as genetically-modified grain sometimes comes under increased scrutiny from authorities.

WHEAT

China is the world’s top wheat consumer and purchases from the U.S. climbed 80 percent last year to 1.6 million tons worth $391 million. That compares with 1.9 million tons imported from Australia. The country hasn’t issued its full low-tariff-rate import quota of 9.6 million tons this year as the world’s largest producer seeks self sufficiency in the staple grain. In-quota wheat imports incur a 1 percent duty.

MEAT

China is one of the world’s fastest-growing beef import markets as western-style steak becomes more popular with middle-class consumers and land constraints limit domestic supply. The Asian country only started buying American beef again last year after banning imports in 2003 when a cow in Washington state was discovered with mad cow disease.

In the six months after the ban was lifted, China purchased $31 million of U.S.-origin beef, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. The USDA estimates that China’s total imports of beef will top 1 million tons in 2018, compared with 974,000 tons last year.

China has levied an additional 25 percent tariff on pork imports from the U.S. since April. The country currently buys no poultry or poultry products from the U.S. after banning imports because of concerns over bird flu in 2015. In February it dropped anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties imposed since 2010 on American supplies.

SORGHUM

The grain used in animal feed has been closely watched by agricultural markets as an indicator of the relationship between the two countries. In May, China scrapped an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports from the U.S. just a month after imposing a 178.6 percent anti-dumping deposit in an investigation that began in February.

The deposit roiled sorghum trading for a month as buyers scrambled to re-sell more than 20 cargoes of U.S. grain. China imported about $957 million of U.S. sorghum in 2017 and purchases fell 15 percent in the first quarter of this year from a year earlier, according to customs data.

COTTON

Cotton represents another major trade flow from the U.S., the world’s third-biggest producer. Exports of raw cotton from the U.S. fetched $5.8 billion last year, government data show. China levies a 1 percent duty on about 894,000 tons a year of cotton imports that come under its low-tariff-rate quota system. Beyond that, purchases are subject to a duty as high as 40 percent.

Earlier this month, the government issued an additional 800,000 tons of import quotas to private firms to ease concerns about a looming shortage. Purchases from the U.S. were about 506,000 tons in 2017 out of a total 1.2 million tons.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

President Trump to Address Trade Aid Package

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:08:31 GMT

President Donald Trump will address U.S. farmers from the White House at 2:15 p.m. Central Thursday to comment on his 2019 tariff aid plan. Details of the plan were announced earlier in the day by USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue.

Watch the president’s address live in the player below.

Peterson: No Farm Bill Amendments, ‘Can’t Put Lipstick on a Pig’

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 01:55:07 GMT

Look for a strictly partisan vote when the House Agriculture Committee marks up the farm bill this week.

“You can’t put lipstick on a pig,” House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D-MN) said of the Republican draft of the farm bill. “So we’re going to ask a bunch of questions, and we’re going to vote no.” Peterson said he will not offer any amendments to the bill during Wednesday’s hearing.

The partisan rift in the Ag Committee centers on work requirements for able-bodied food assistance recipients in the Republican version of the bill. Peterson said he was blindsided by Chairman Mike Conaway (R-TX) over the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) changes in the bill.

“He said to me in that meeting, I can tell you this, I’m not going to jam you on this,” Peterson said of his meeting with Conaway on the SNAP changes. “Well I don’t know what else you can call what he’s done.”

Peterson told AgriTalk listeners he is also not comfortable with changes to the commodity title of the farm bill.

“I never was all that comfortable with us leaving Title I where it sat,” Peterson said, “because I think if we have a bad year, and this could be the year given the way it’s starting off, we’re going to have a lot of people in trouble, and this bill that’s before us or the current law if it’s extended is not going to be adequate to deal with what we’re facing.”

“If this bill goes to conference, I’m not going to defend the House bill,” Peterson added. “It’ll be the first time we’ll have three against one.”

Commodities Erase Gains for Year as Lean Hogs to Crude Decline

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:26:52 GMT

Commodities erased gains for the year as oil and grains declined on signs of ample supplies as economic growth halted in Europe and factory output slowed in China, the biggest consumer of industrial metals and energy.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials dropped 0.5 percent to 125.593 by 5:11 p.m. in London, for a 0.1 percent decline this year. Lean hogs, Brent crude and gasoline fell at least 2 percent today. Lean hogs, Brent crude and aluminum fell at least 1.6 percent today.

Cotton, grains and oilseeds are the worst-performing commodities this year in the Bloomberg index. Soybeans dropped 20 percent and corn lost 12 percent on record U.S. harvests. Brent is heading for a second monthly decline, the longest streak since May 2013, as shale fracking allowed the U.S. to pump the most oil in 27 years even as fighting in the Middle East threatened to disrupt supplies.

“Perfect growing conditions in Europe, the Black Sea and the U.S. have sent grains down,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “The energy sector has become more robust. This is not least due to the continued rise in non-OPEC production, especially in the U.S.”

Stocks Comparison

The Bloomberg Commodity Index’s 2014 gain lags behind a 3.4 percent advance in the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities and the 4 percent increase in the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index. The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose 0.1 percent.

The euro-area’s economic recovery stalled in the second quarter as Germany, France and Italy all failed to grow, underlining the vulnerability of the region to weak inflation and the deepening crisis in Ukraine.

Germany is the third-biggest buyer of copper, after China and the U.S. Copper declined 0.8 percent to $6,827 a metric ton today, the lowest since June 23 and extending this year’s drop to 7.2 percent. Aluminum fell 1.6 percent to $1,993.75 a ton.

Japan’s economy contracted the most since 2011 last quarter and China’s industrial production and lending for July were below economist forecasts, reports yesterday showed. The International Monetary Fund last month cut its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent forecast in April.

Goldman’s View

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in a July 28 report, kept its neutral commodities outlook for the next 12 months and said nickel and palladium would outperform iron ore and soybeans. Industrial metals have the best short-term outlooks, Barclays Plc said in a July 30 report. The bank recommends buying nickel and crude and selling gold. Gold climbed 9.1 percent this year.

Soybeans rose 0.8 percent to $10.5475 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade today after touching $10.3875 a bushel, the lowest since Sept. 17, 2010. Corn futures advanced 0.5 percent to $3.7175 a bushel.

U.S. farmers will harvest a record 3.816 billion bushels of soybeans this year and an all-time high of 14.032 billion bushels of corn, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week.

Bulging Stockpiles

Brent declined 1.8 percent to $102.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after touching the lowest since July 2013. Prices dropped 7.6 percent this year. Cotton fell 0.3 percent today, down 24 percent in 2014. A bigger U.S. crop is supplementing bulging stockpiles in China, according to the USDA. Lean hog futures retreated 1.3 percent.

Hedge funds and other large speculators cut their bets on rising commodity prices by Aug. 5 to the lowest level since January, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

“For the remainder of the year the upside seems limited,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen said. “A potential return to recession in Europe, China bumping along without much fireworks together with ample supply of key commodities should keep a lid on rallies.”

Corn Export Sales Surge; Wheat & Bean Sales Also Impress

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:26:13 GMT

The Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended March 20, 2014, showed corn, soybean and wheat export sales topping expectations by a wide margin, with soybeans more than doubling top end of expectations. The light old-crop soybean sales tally did include cancellations amounting to around 300,000 MT, but a strong new-crop sales figure featured China as the lead buyer. Export commitments for corn, soybeans and wheat all remain above the pace needed to meet USDA’s export projection, with corn commitments running nearly 44 percentage points ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s projection.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Week Ended March 20, 2014
Corn
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 1,436,700 2013-14: 1,408,300 MT 2014-15: 28,400 MT
Trade Expectations	525,000 MT to 725,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 1,408,300 MT for2013-14 were up 89% from the previous week and 49% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Egypt (431,100 MT, including 26,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (239,600 MT) Colombia (187,400 MT, including 62,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), South Korea (139,000 MT), Japan (110,300 MT, including 108,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 29,100 MT), Taiwan (72,000 MT), Morocco (37,300 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 12,000 MT switched from China), and Peru (35,200 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (16,100 MT), China (9,500 MT), and Guatemala (2,900 MT). Net sales of 28,400 MT for2014-15 were reported for unknown destinations (25,400 MT) and China (5,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (2,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,230,000 MT were up 33% from the previous week and 29% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (353,200 MT), Japan (249,800 MT), Colombia (127,600 MT), Taiwan (79,400 MT), Venezuela (71,000 MT), and South Korea (63,100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 166% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 162% ahead of year ago the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 122.3% above the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 728,000 MT 2013-14: 400,500 MT 2014-15: 327,500 MT
Trade Expectations	325,000 MT to 475,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 400,500 MT for delivery during the2013-14 marketing year were unchanged from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (128,700 MT), the Philippines (111,600 MT), Nigeria (65,000 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), Yemen (55,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (44,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (23,800 MT, including 17,000 MT switched from Japan and decreases of 2,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (8,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (97,000 MT) and Trinidad (4,000 MT). Net sales of 327,500 MT for2014-15 were reported for Mexico (229,500 MT), unknown destinations (90,000 MT), and the Philippines (10,000 MT). Decreases were reported for South Korea (2,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 530,400 MT were up 21% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (81,800 MT), South Korea (80,500 MT), the Philippines (53,500 MT), Thailand (50,000 MT), Mexico (49,400 MT), and Japan (46,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 18% ahead of year-ago, compared to 19% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be up 16.7% compared with the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 546,800 MT 2013-14: 11,900 MT 2014-15: 534,900 MT
Trade Expectations	100,000 MT to 250,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 11,900 MT for2013-14 resulted as increases for the Netherlands (81,000 MT, including 74,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (72,900 MT, including 28,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (40,500 MT), China (21,700 MT), and Taiwan (13,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (170,000 MT), Indonesia (39,800 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Thailand (6,500 MT), and Vietnam (1,500 MT). Net sales of 534,900 MT for2014-15 were reported primarily for China (336,000 MT), Indonesia (115,000 MT), and unknown destinations (55,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 720,100 MT were down 36% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (317,400 MT), Indonesia (111,200 MT), Japan (83,000 MT), the Netherlands (81,000 MT), and Mexico (50,000 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are running 25% ahead of year-ago compared to 25% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 15.9% above the previous marketing year.
Soymeal
Actual Sales	Combined: 189,500 MT 2013-14: 158,500 MT 2014-15: 31,000 MT
Trade Expectations	100,000 MT to 200,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 158,500 MT for2013-14 were down 35% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Saudi Arabia (28,800 MT, including 24,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (28,500 MT), Mexico (26,700 MT), Colombia (25,500 MT), Italy (25,000 MT), and Ecuador (12,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (36,500 MT). Net sales of 31,000 MT for2014-15 were reported for unknown destinations (25,000 MT) and Indonesia (6,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 180,700 MT were down 25% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Morocco (32,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (30,200 MT), Mexico (27,000 MT), Canada (17,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (16,100 MT), and Venezuela (12,000 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for 2013-14 are running 5% ahead of last year’s pace, compared to 5% ahead last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 will be down 1.9% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales	2013-14: 4,000 MT
Trade Expectations	0 MT to 50,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 4,000 MT for2013-14 were up 94% from the previous week, but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,000 MT), Venezuela (1,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (800 MT), and Canada (500 MT). Decreases were reported for Nicaragua (1,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 4,900 MT were down 37% from the previous week and 79% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,700 MT) and Canada (1,100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are 31% behind compared to 29% behind year-ago last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 to be 30.7% behind the previous marketing year.
Cotton
Actual Sales	Combined: 142,900 RB 2013-14: 66,300 RB 2014-15: 76,600 RB
Trade Expectations	NA
Weekly Sales Details	Net Upland sales of 66,300 RB for2013-14 were up 31% from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (15,000 RB,), South Korea (11,500 RB), Turkey (7,600 RB), Vietnam (7,100 RB), Colombia (5,700 RB), and Egypt (4,400 RB). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (400 RB). Net sales of 76,600 RB for2014-15 were reported primarily for Indonesia (48,400 RB), Thailand (14,000 RB), Turkey (5,700 RB), and China (4,400 RB).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 259,100 RB were down 21% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (45,500 RB), Turkey (44,000 RB), Vietnam (32,300 RB), Indonesia (27,200 RB), Thailand (22,300 RB), and Mexico (16,700 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Export commitments are 9% behind year-ago compared to 6% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 17.9% behind of the previous marketing year.
Beef
Actual Sales	Combined: 13,200 2014: 13,300 MT 2015: -100 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 13,300 MT for 2014 were down 18% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (3,300 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (2,400 MT), and the Philippines (500 MT). Decreases were reported for Vietnam (300 MT) and Moldova (200 MT). Net sales reductions of 100 MT for 2015 were reported for Canada.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 11,600 MT were down 20% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (3,100 MT), Hong Kong (2,400 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 16,400 MT the week before. USDA projects exports in 2014 to be 5.7% below last year’s total.
Pork
Actual Sales	2014: 6,600 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 6,600 MT were up 26% from the previous week, but down 24% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (3,400 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), Japan (700 MT), South Korea (400 MT), and Hong Kong (300 MT). Decreases were reported for Australia (100 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 10,600 MT were primarily to Mexico (3,700 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT), Japan (1,300 MT), Hong Kong (1,000 MT), and Canada (800 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 5,200 MT the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2014 to be 1.9% above last year’s total.
Link to USDA report.

USDA March 2014 WASDE Report -- Text Highlights

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:26:05 GMT

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports. Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels. Oats imports are projected 10 million bushels lower as Canadian logistical problems reduce the availability of importable supplies. Small reductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected. The seas on-average farm price for corn is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel. Price ranges are similarly narrowed for sorghum and oats. The barley farm price is raised 10 cents on the low end of the range to $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel based on recently higher reported prices for feed barley.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.4 million tons higher with larger corn beginning stocks for Indonesia, higher corn production for China, and higher barley production for Australia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected sorghum output for Australia as a continuation of hot, dry conditions have sharply eroded prospects for this year’s sorghum crop.

Global coarse grain imports for 2013/14 are raised 1.3 million tons with higher corn imports for Indonesia and the European Union and higher barley imports for China. Higher expected corn and barley feeding in these countries drive the import increases. Barley feeding is also raised for Australia as drought reduces sorghum supplies and boosts demand for other feed grains. Sorghum exports are lowered for Australia. Sorghum imports are reduced for Mexico as strong demand from China has driven U.S. Gulf sorghum prices above those for corn in recent months limiting import opportunities for sorghum feeders in Mexico. Barley exports are raised for Australia with the larger crop. European Union corn exports are lowered, but more than offset by this month’s increase for the United States.

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are raised slightly with higher corn stocks in China and Indonesia more than offsetting lower barley stocks in the European Union and the reductions in corn and oats stocks in the United States.

WHEAT: There are no changes to the 2013/14 U.S. all wheat supply and use projections this month. A 15-million-bushel increase in projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports is offset by a decrease for Soft Red Winter wheat, with both changes reflecting the pace of sales and shipments. Projected ending stocks for both classes are adjusted accordingly. The projected season-average farm price for all wheat is raised 10 cents on the bottom end of the range to $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel based on recent strength in prices.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised slightly with a 0.8-million-ton increase in world production. Production is raised 1.1 million tons for India and 0.5 million tons for Australia based on the latest government reports. China is lowered 0.3 million tons, also based on the latest official indications. Production is lowered for Uruguay and Paraguay, down 0.3 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, reflecting dry growing season conditions in both countries and early season freeze damage in Paraguay that also reduced yields.

Strong demand in the Middle East and North Africa boosts 2013/14 world wheat imports 3.0 million tons. Imports are raised for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Syria, Algeria, Iraq, and Turkey. Exports are raised for the European Union, Russia, Serbia, and Turkey. European Union exports are raised 1.5 million tons reflecting the strong pace of licenses with higher corn imports and feeding freeing up more wheat for export. For Russia, higher wheat imports and reduced wheat feeding support a 1.0-million-ton increase in wheat exports. Export business has remained strong for both countries well into the second half of the 2013/14 marketing year as prices remain attractive for buyers in the Middle East and North Africa.

World wheat consumption is raised slightly for 2013/14 with increased use for India, Iran, Australia, Iraq, and Morocco more than offsetting lower feed use for the European Union and Russia, and for South Korea, where wheat imports are lowered. Wheat feeding is raised for Australia as drought reduces sorghum supplies and boosts the use of grain in livestock rations. Global wheat ending stocks are nearly unchanged.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013/14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to a record 1.53 billion reflecting continued strong sales and shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Soybean oil stocks are reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changes include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed, and other industrial use.

Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans is raised 25 cents on both ends of the range to $12.20 to $13.70 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450 to $490 per short ton, up 25 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 504.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month as reduced soybean and copra production are only partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Foreign production, projected at 407.0 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is projected at 88.5 million tons, down 1.5 million mainly reflecting hot, dry weather in the south when much of the crop was in the flowering and filling stages. Soybean production is also reduced for Paraguay due to the extended period of hot, dry weather. China rapeseed production is estimated at 14.4 million tons, up 0.2 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released government statistics. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and increased peanut production for China, Uganda, and Tanzania.

Global oilseed supplies, exports, and ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected lower this month while crush is projected higher. Soybean crush is projected higher for the European Union, Paraguay, and Zambia; rapeseed and peanut crush are each raised for China. Lower soybean stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in China. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 84.0 million tons, down 1.9 million.

COTTON: This month’s 2013/14 cotton estimates include slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged from last month. The export forecast is raised to 10.7 million bales based on strong activity in recent weeks. Ending stocks are reduced to 2.8 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent. The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is raised 1 cent per pound on the lower end to 75 to 78 cents, with a midpoint of 76.5 cents.

The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2013/14 show slightly lower consumption and higher ending stocks. The world production forecast is virtually unchanged. Decreases in consumption for China and Pakistan are partially offset by increases for India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and others. China’s consumption is lowered 500,000 bales based on increasing concentrations of domestic supply in the national reserve and continued growth in cotton yarn imports. Pakistan’s consumption also is lowered 500,000 bales, as sluggish imports indicate lower use. World ending stocks are now forecast at 96.8 million bales.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. For beef, continued relatively large cattle placements in the first quarter are expected to result in higher slaughter in 2014. Coupled with heavier carcass weights and higher expected first-quarter cow slaughter, the beef production forecast is raised. Pork production is reduced from last month as higher carcass weights are insufficient to offset tighter supplies of hogs. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28. Broiler production is lowered as hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey production is reduced as January slaughter and hatchery data were below expectations. Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged, but historical data are adjusted to reflect recently published data.

The beef import forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is raised on strong sales to Asian markets. Pork imports are raised as prices are forecast higher, but the export forecast is reduced as high prices are expected to constrain sales. The broiler export forecast is raised as January exports were higher-than-expected. Turkey exports are lowered. The egg export forecast is unchanged.

Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting tight supplies and continued price strength for fed cattle. The hog price forecast is raised on expected tight supplies of market hogs and strong demand. Broiler and turkey prices are largely unchanged but the egg price is raised on higher first-quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but historical data are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013. Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter. Skim-solid exports are unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese. Fat-basis imports are unchanged. Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates.

Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices are raised on higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to $22.00 per cwt.

USDA's Long-term Ag Projections

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:26:01 GMT

USDA today released its long-term ag projections through 2023, which includes “assumptions for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions and projections for major commodities, farm income, and U.S. agricultural trade value.” To view all of the data, click here .

USDA provides the following summary: “Over the longer run, steady global economic growth provides a foundation for continuing strong crop demand. Although corn-based ethanol production in the United States has rebounded from 2012’s decline, the pace of further expansion slows. Nonetheless, the combination of world economic growth, a continued low-valued dollar, and some further expansion of global biofuels production supports longer run gains in world consumption and trade of crops. Prices are projected to fall from recent record highs but remain above pre-2007 levels for many crops.”

The projections assume an extension of the programs for the 2008 Farm Bill rather than the new programs of the 2014 Farm Bill. The outlook also projects that acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will decline to 26 million acres in 2014 before rising back close to 32 million acres by the end of the projection period. The 2014 Farm Bill caps CRP acres at 24 million by Fiscal Year 2018.

As the above assumptions illustrate, it is important to remember these are not an official forecast, and therefore, one should not get wrapped up in the details. Following are some of the highlights from the report:

2014-15 Crop Projections

Corn plantings of 93.5 million acres with a 165.6 bu. per acre yield for a 14.26-billion bu. crop & ending stocks of 2.607 billion bu.
Soybean plantings of 78 million acres with an average yield of 45.2 bu. per acre for a 3.48-billion bu. crop and ending stocks of 203 billion bu.
Wheat plantings of 57 million acres with an average yield of 45.8 bu. per acre for a 2.22-billion bu. crop with ending stocks of 642 million bu.
Cotton plantings of 11 million acres with an average yield of 795 lbs. per acre for a 15.6-million-bale crop and ending stocks of 4.409 million bales.

Farm Price Projections

USA projects the following average prices in 2014-15:

Corn: $3.65
Soybeans: $9.75
Wheat: $4.90 per bu.
Cotton: 64 cents per lb.

But more important than these unofficial projections are the general trends regarding prices:

Corn: USDA projects the average price of a bushel of corn will decline through 2015-16. Thereafter, corn prices are expected to begin rising as ending stocks tighten due to increases in feed use, exports and ethanol demand.
Soybean prices initially fall from recent highs but then rise moderately after 2015-16, reflecting strengthening demand for soybeans and soybean products.
Wheat prices decline through 2016-17, reflecting rising wheat stocks and falling corn prices. Wheat prices increase through the remainder of the projection period with export growth, moderate gains in food use, and declining stocks. Rising imports and increasing global competition limit price increases for wheat.
Cotton prices are expected to hold around 62 cents to 64 cents per lb. through 2017-18 and then gradually rise. U.S. mill use of upland cotton is projected to rise moderately while cotton exports increase in the second half of the projections.

Export Projections of Note

U.S. corn exports increase during the projection period, in response to strong global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production. Export gains are particularly strong to China. The United States resumes being the world’s largest corn exporter, following the sharp reduction in U.S. corn exports after the 2012 drought, and accounts for an average of about 40% of global corn trade over the projection period. Strong trade competition from Argentina, Brazil, and the FSU as well as the use of corn for ethanol production in the United States combine to hold the U.S. trade share well below its 1970-2000 average of 71%.
Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, boosts soybean trade over the projection period—China accounts for all of the increase in world soybean imports. Even though U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise, competition from South America leads to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 38% in 2013-14 to about 32% in 2023-24. Brazil continues to be the largest exporter of soybeans.
U.S. exports of soybean oil and soybean meal also face strong competition from South America. Argentina, in particular, is a competitive exporter of soybean products because its graduated export taxes favor exports of soybean products over soybeans. Increasing biodiesel production in Argentina, however, limits the country’s soybean oil export growth, allowing the U.S. global export share to increase. However, Argentina is projected to account for about half of global soybean meal exports over the next decade. Brazil remains the second largest soybean meal exporter.
U.S. wheat exports initially fall to 1.025 billion bushels in the initial years of the projections before growing moderately for the remainder of the decade. U.S. wheat trade faces competition from countries of the FSU, whose wheat exports rise from 23% to 29% of global trade over the next decade. EU wheat exports grow from a global market share of 16% to 17% by 2023/24. For the same time period, the U.S. market share declines from 19% to 17%.
U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to rise from 2013-14’s low level to about 10.5 million bales for several years, before showing moderate additional growth over the remainder of the projections. The United States remains the world’s largest exporter of cotton, although the U.S. share of global cotton trade falls below 23% by the end of the projection period, compared to an average of more than 37% in 2000-2010. China is the world’s largest importer of cotton.

Livestock Outlook

USDA’s update notes that the livestock sector continues its slow recovery from high feed costs and drought in the Southern Plains. But USDA also notes, “Improving returns have provided incentives for increased production in the livestock sector. As a result, total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to rise over the projection period, as is per capita consumption of red meat and poultry.” USDA highlights the following regarding per capita meat consumption:

Per capita beef consumption declines through 2016, before rising moderately over the remainder of the projection period. The near-term decline reflects reductions in beef production over the next several years. As beef production increases in subsequent years, per capita consumption grows.
Per capita pork consumption is projected to rise through 2017 as gains in production are large enough to accommodate both increased domestic use as well as rising U.S. pork exports. Per capita consumption tapers off slightly from 2018 onward as pork production gains slow.
Poultry production increases throughout the projection period. Per capita consumption rises over the next 10 years and, in contrast to red meats, surpasses levels of the past decade.

In terms of nominal U.S. livestock prices, USDA projects beef cattle prices will fall in 2017 and then rise more moderately than in the early years of the projection as beef production rises. Hog and broiler prices are expected to increase slightly over the last half of the projection period as production gains for each of these slows.

Grain & Soybean Export Sales Slow over the Holidays

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:25:57 GMT

The Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended Jan. 2, 2014, showed a slowdown in demand for grain and soybeans over the holidays, which is not unusual. Cotton and beef export sales were also on the light side. In contrast, pork export sales surged that week, with Mexico as the lead buyer.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Week Ended Jan. 2, 2014
Corn
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 155,300 MT
Trade Expectations	200,000 MT to 700,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 155,300 MT for2013-14 were up 1% from the previous week, but down 79% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (100,200 MT, including 63,900 MT switched from China and 35,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (70,700 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT, switched from China) and China (6,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (88,300 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 603,300 MT were down 29% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (160,200 MT), China (155,600 MT), Mexico (151,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (63,100 MT), and Colombia (36,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were below expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 124% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 124% ahead of year ago the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 98.4% above the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 294,800 MT 2013-14: 110,800 MT 2014-15: 184,000
Trade Expectations	200,000 MT to 500,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 110,800 MT--a marketing-year low--for delivery during the2013-14 marketing year were down 55% from the previous week and 76% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (62,200 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Italy (31,500 MT), Brazil (30,000 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (21,700 MT), and Mexico (11,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT). Net sales of 184,000 MT for2014-15 were reported for unknown destinations (160,000 MT) and China (24,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 436,500 MT were up 55% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (108,400 MT), Japan (98,800 MT), Taiwan (57,100 MT), Brazil (55,000 MT), and Italy (31,900 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 27% ahead of year-ago, compared to 28% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be up 9.2% compared with the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 155,500 MT
Trade Expectations	450,000 MT to 950,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 155,500 MT--a marketing-year low--for2013-14 were down 84% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (387,900 MT, including 299,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 49,200 MT), the Netherlands (65,300 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), Tunisia (30,000 MT), Indonesia (22,900 MT), and Japan (15,500 MT, including 14,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (394,800 MT), Singapore (8,900 MT), and Mexico (5,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,675,300 MT were up 10% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,217,800 MT), Thailand (73,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (72,600 MT), the Netherlands (65,300 MT), and Mexico (51,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well below expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are running 31% ahead of year-ago compared to 32% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 11.7% above the previous marketing year.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 62,800 MT
Trade Expectations	50,000 MT to 175,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 62,800 MT--a marketing-year low--for 2013-14 resulted as increases for Venezuela (35,700 MT), Syria (29,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Turkey (25,400 MT, including 14,000 MT switched from China and 10,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Denmark (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Morocco (15,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (89,000 MT), China (14,000 MT), and Colombia (7,300 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 341,900 MT were up 46% from the previous week and 22% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Denmark (49,000 MT), Egypt (41,200 MT), Venezuela (29,700 MT), Syria (29,600 MT), and Spain (28,000 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for 2013-14 are running 5% ahead of last year’s pace, compared to 6% ahead last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 will be down 7.2% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 33,600 MT
Trade Expectations	0 MT to 60,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 33,600 MT for2013-14 were primarily for China (35,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (9,000 MT, switched from India), Peru (5,200 MT), and Nicaragua (2,500 MT). Decreases were reported for India (20,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 3,500 MT were down 90% from the previous week and 87% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,700 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Panama (100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are 41% behind compared to 40% behind year-ago last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 to be 5.5% behind the previous marketing year.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB)	2013-14: 68,100 RB
Trade Expectations	NA
Weekly Sales Details	Net Upland sales of 68,100 RB for2013-14 were down 21% from the previous week and 62% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Turkey (16,300 RB), Taiwan (15,000 RB), Pakistan (12,900 RB), South Korea (4,800 RB), and China (4,500 RB). Decreases were reported for Japan (300 RB).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 211,300 RB were up 48% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Turkey (46,200 RB), China (35,400 RB), Vietnam (32,700 RB), Thailand (17,800 RB), and Mexico (15,700 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Export commitments are 21% behind year-ago compared to 20% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 20.2% behind of the previous marketing year.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 6,400 MT 2013: 600 MT 2014: 5,800 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 5,800 MT for the 2014 marketing year (which began Jan. 1) were primarily for Hong Kong (2,600 MT), Japan (1,100 MT), Canada (600 MT), and Taiwan (500 MT). Exports of 2,300 MT were mainly for Hong Kong (600 MT), South Korea (600 MT), and Japan (400 MT). Net sales of 600 MT for Dec. 27-31 resulted as increases for Mexico (500 MT), South Korea (400 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Taiwan (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Japan (600 MT). A total of 30,600 MT were outstanding on Dec. 31 and carried over to the 2014 marketing year.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 8,700 MT were for Dec. 27-31, were for Japan (2,000 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT), and Mexico (1,800 MT). Accumulated exports for 2013 of 695,000 MT were down 5% from the 731,800 MT exported during the previous year.
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 11,700 MT the week before. USDA projects exports in 2014 to be 7.7% below last year’s total.
Pork
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 22,200 MT 2013: 1,100 MT 2014: 21,100 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 21,100 MT for the 2014 marketing year (which began Jan. 1) were primarily for Mexico (6,300 MT), South Korea (4,800 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), and Australia (2,100 MT). Net sales of 1,100 MT for Dec. 27-31 were for Mexico (700 MT), Japan (300 MT), and Honduras (100 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,900 MT were mainly for Japan (700 MT), Mexico (500 MT), and South Korea (200 MT). A total of 24,200 MT were outstanding on Dec. 31 and carried over to the 2014 marketing year. Exports of 6,500 MT were for Dec. 27-31, were for Mexico (2,700 MT), Japan (1,100 MT), and South Korea (700 MT). Accumulated exports for 2013 of 382,300 MT were reported during the year.
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 16,900 MT the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 4.1% below last year’s total.
Link to USDA report.

Corn & Soybean Export Sales Match Expectations, Wheat Sales Slow

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:25:45 GMT

The Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended Nov. 28, show corn sales at the low end of expectations with no movement for the 2014-15 crop on the week. Wheat sales fell well below expectations but remain ahead of the prior year, and soybean export sales were within expectations with strong sales to an unknown destination leading export sales.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Week Ended Nov. 28, 2013
Corn
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 593,600 2013-14: 593,600 MT 2014-15: 00 MT
Trade Expectations	400,000 MT to 1,050,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 593,600 MT for 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for China (362,600 MT, including 306,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), South Korea (123,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Cuba (100,000 MT), Mexico (62,100 MT), Japan (34,000 MT), and Peru (30,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (158,800 MT) and Guatemala (1,900 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,042,100 MT were primarily to China (587,900 MT), Mexico (172,400 MT), Japan (130,200 MT), South Korea (66,900 MT), and Guatemala (20,900 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 113% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 109% ahead of year ago the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 91.5% above the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 229,200 MT
Trade Expectations	350,000 MT to 650,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 229,200 MT--a marketing-year low--were reported for the 2013/2014 marketing year. Increases were reported for Thailand (65,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (44,200 MT), Mexico (38,700 MT), the Philippines (31,000 MT), and Colombia (13,600 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Jamaica (9,100 MT), unknown destinations (4,700 MT), Germany (1,400 MT), and Brazil (1,300 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 369,400 MT were primarily to Thailand (65,700 MT), Nigeria (65,300 MT), China (62,500 MT), Taiwan (42,900 MT), and Brazil (32,100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were below expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 37% ahead of year-ago, compared to 38% ahead the week ended Oct. 3. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be up 9.2% compared with the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 805,200 MT
Trade Expectations	400,000 MT to 1,600,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 805,200 MT for 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for unknown destinations (298,500 MT), Spain (132,100 MT), Mexico (86,600 MT), the Netherlands (75,200 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (66,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China). Decreases were reported for Canada (11,200 MT). Net sales of 355,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (175,000 MT), China (170,000 MT), and Mexico (10,600 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,878,100 MT were primarily to China (1,420,100 MT), Thailand (87,600 MT), the Netherlands (75,200 MT), Spain (72,100 MT), Japan (39,200 MT), and Taiwan (37,800 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are running 32% ahead of year-ago compared to 35% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 9.8% above the previous marketing year.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 120,400 MT
Trade Expectations	120,000 MT to 325,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 120,400 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (41,200 MT), Denmark (39,000 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Poland (25,600 MT, including 19,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Israel (12,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (34,000 MT) and the Dominican Republic (2,500 MT). Net sales of 10,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 317,900 MT were primarily to the Philippines (104,300 MT), Vietnam (50,100 MT), Denmark (39,000 MT), Poland (25,600 MT), and Canada (17,000 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were just within expectations. Export commitments for 2013-14 are running 15% ahead of last year’s pace, compared to 24% ahead last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 will be down 7.2% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 1,400 MT
Trade Expectations	10,000 MT to 60,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for the Dominican Republic (4,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Nicaragua (400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (4,600 MT) and Canada (400 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 29,000 MT were primarily to China (20,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,600 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT), and Canada (600 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well below expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are 55% behind compared to 53% behind year-ago last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 to be 47.7% behind the previous marketing year.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB)	Combined: 266,600 RB 2013-14: 248,600 RB 2014-15: 18,000 RB
Trade Expectations	NA
Weekly Sales Details	Net Upland sales of 248,600 RB for 2013/2014 were reported for Turkey (114,700 RB), China (51,400 RB), Indonesia (31,900 RB, including 200 RB switched from Japan), Brazil (21,700 RB), and Peru (8,800 RB). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (1,200 RB). Net sales of 18,000 RB for 2014/2015 were reported for Turkey.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 106,500 RB were primarily to China (48,900 RB), Mexico (8,900 RB), Turkey (8,000 RB), Indonesia (6,700 RB), and Vietnam (4,600 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Export commitments are 18% behind year-ago compared to 17% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 20.2% behind of the previous marketing year.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 11,700 MT 2013: 11,500 MT 2014: 200 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 11,500 MT for 2013 were reported for South Korea (2,600 MT), Hong Kong (2,400 MT), Mexico (2,300 MT), Japan (2,000 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2014 resulted as increases for Hong Kong (500 MT), Mexico (400 MT), Taiwan (300 MT), and South Korea (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Japan (1,200 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 12,500 MT were primarily to Japan (3,100 MT), Hong Kong (2,700 MT), Mexico (2,600 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 9,500 MT the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 0.2% above last year’s total.
Pork
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013: 9,900 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 9,900 MT for 2013 were primarily for Mexico (3,600 MT), South Korea (2,500 MT), Japan (700 MT), Australia (700 MT), and Canada (500 MT). Exports of 9,700 MT were reported to Mexico (3,600 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Japan (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (600 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 9,700 MT were reported to Mexico (3,600 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Japan (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (600 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 8,700 MT the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 6.1% below last year’s total.
Link to USDA report.

Corn, Soybean & Wheat Export Sales Impress

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:25:45 GMT

The Weekly Export Sales Report for the weeks ended Nov. 14, show that softer corn prices are indeed rebuilding demand as sales neared 1 MMT and topped expectations. And more strong demand news may be ahead as corn prices have softened since the reporting week. The same can be said for wheat futures. Soybean export sales again topped expectations by a wide margins, which has almost become a trend. However, the market has responded tepidly to other reports of strong export demand.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Week Ended Nov. 14, 2013
Corn
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 982,700 2013-14: 945,100 MT 2014-15: 37,600 MT
Trade Expectations	750,000 MT to 950,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 945,100 MT for 2013-14 reported for Japan (403,000 MT, including 34,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (321,600 MT, including 313,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,700 MT), Mexico (275,800 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), Colombia (37,700 MT, including 32,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (23,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (201,400 MT). Net sales of 37,600 MT for 2014-15 were reported for Japan.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 756,300 MT were primarily to China (339,700 MT), Mexico (210,900 MT), Japan (86,500 MT), Colombia (35,200 MT), and El Salvador (27,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were above expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 104% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 110% ahead of year ago the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 91.5% above the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 618,100 MT
Trade Expectations	375,000 MT to 475,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 618,100 MT reported for Japan (172,900 MT), South Korea (80,500 MT), Brazil (73,800 MT), Nigeria (60,300 MT), and the Philippines (42,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (1,300 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 551,500 MT were primarily to Brazil (127,700 MT), Nigeria (84,300 MT), China (59,100 MT), Indonesia (57,800 MT), and Japan (46,600 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 37% ahead of year-ago, compared to 39% ahead the week ended Oct. 3. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be up 9.2% compared with the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 1,376,400 MT
Trade Expectations	650,000 MT to 850,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 1,376,400 MT for 2013-14 were reported for China (1,152,000 MT, including 324,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 70,100 MT), Mexico (174,700 MT), the Netherlands (95,300 MT, including 90,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (72,100 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Saudi Arabia (65,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (465,200 MT) and Costa Rica (1,100 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 2,488,600 MT were primarily to China (1,926,100 MT), Taiwan (96,000 MT), the Netherlands (95,300 MT), Spain (72,100 MT), Egypt (63,100 MT), and France (59,500 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are running 32% ahead of year-ago compared to 29% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 9.8% above the previous marketing year.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 116,000 MT
Trade Expectations	200,000 MT to 350,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 116,000 MT for 2013-14 were reported for Ecuador (27,500 MT), Mexico (22,800 MT), Canada (16,200 MT), unknown destinations (11,000 MT), and Guatemala (8,500 MT, including 7,700 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Sri Lanka (400 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 148,400 MT were primarily to Venezuela (32,900 MT), Ecuador (27,500 MT), Canada (20,500 MT), Mexico (15,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (14,500 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well below expectations. Export commitments for 2013-14 are running 27% ahead of last year’s pace, compared to 30% ahead the week ended Oct. 3. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 will be down 7.2% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 95,800 MT
Trade Expectations	30,000 MT to 80,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 95,800 MT for 2013-14 were reported for India (40,000 MT), unknown destinations (34,800 MT), Peru (14,500 MT), and Mexico (6,300 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 3,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (2,500 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were above expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are 45% behind compared to 53% behind year-ago last week. USDA in September projected exports in 2013-14 to be 47.7% behind the previous marketing year.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB)	Combined: 318,300 RB 2013-14: 305,100 RB 2014-15: 13,200 RB
Trade Expectations	NA
Weekly Sales Details	Net Upland sales of 305,100 RB for 2013-14 were reported for Turkey (117,600 RB), China (46,000 RB), Thailand (36,600 RB, including 500 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 500 RB), South Korea (21,800 RB), and Indonesia (21,400 RB). Net sales of 13,200 RB for 2014-15 were reported for Turkey.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 71,100 RB were primarily to China (32,200 RB), Mexico (8,200 RB), Thailand (5,000 RB), Turkey (4,300 RB), and Indonesia (3,900 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Export commitments are 17% behind year-ago compared to 17% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 20.2% behind of the previous marketing year.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 21,800 MT 2013: 16,600 MT 2014: 5,200 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 16,600 MT for 2013 were reported for Mexico (5,700 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Hong Kong (2,200 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT). Decreases were reported for the Netherlands (300 MT) and Germany (100 MT). Net sales of 5,200 MT for 2014 were for Japan (2,700 MT), Hong Kong (1,700 MT), and Canada (600 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 12,500 MT were primarily to Hong Kong (3,000 MT), Japan (2,600 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 13,500 MT the week before. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 0.2% above last year’s total.
Pork
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013: 9,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 9,000 MT for 2013 were primarily for Mexico (3,200 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), Japan (700 MT), and Chile (400 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 10,500 MT were reported to Mexico (3,900 MT), Japan (1,500 MT), Hong Kong (1,300 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and South Korea (900 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 7,600 MT the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 6.1% below last year’s total.
Link to USDA report.

Soybean & Wheat Export Sales Impress

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 03:25:41 GMT

The Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended Sept. 12, 2013, signaled some value buying is occurring among soybean exports as sales surged to top expectations. Weekly wheat export sales also impressed, but corn sales fell just short of expectations. Cotton export sales were lackluster. Beef export sales continue to impress and pork export sales also improved last week.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Week Ended Sept. 12, 2013
Corn
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 437,400 MT
Trade Expectations	450,000 to 650,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 437,400 MT for 2013-14 resulted as increases for Mexico (136,500 MT, including 33,300 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 5,000 MT), Japan (108,500 MT, including 64,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,500 MT), China (64,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (40,000 MT), and Taiwan (35,900 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (18,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 518,800 MT were primarily to Mexico (196,400 MT), Japan (104,300 MT), Venezuela (67,000 MT), China (60,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (26,400 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were below expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 31% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 27% ahead of year ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 66.7% above the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 701,900 MT 2013-14: 704,400 MT 2014-15: -2,500 MT
Trade Expectations	500,000 to 650,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 704,400 MT for delivery in the 2013-14 marketing year were up 30% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (159,200 MT), Brazil (120,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (93,800 MT), Sri Lanka (63,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), Venezuela (61,700 MT), and the Philippines (44,800 MT). Decreases were reported for China (5,500 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), and unknown destinations (1,800 MT). Net sales reductions of 2,500 MT for 2014-15 were for Malaysia.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 1,204,400 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 32% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (406,700 MT), Brazil (186,400 MT), Japan (128,800 MT), Nigeria (96,000 MT), Mexico (68,900 MT), Sri Lanka (63,500 MT), Thailand (54,500 MT), and the Philippines (44,100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were above expectations. Export commitments for the 2013-14 marketing year are running 38% ahead of year-ago, compared to 38% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be up 7.0% compared with the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013-14: 923,300 MT
Trade Expectations	650,000 to 750,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 923,300 MT for 2013-14 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (530,500 MT), China (129,000 MT), South Korea (85,200 MT), Mexico (60,700 MT), and Indonesia (41,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 74,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (26,300 MT), Japan (22,000 MT), Indonesia (6,700 MT), Colombia (4,400 MT), and Taiwan (4,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are running 7% ahead of year-ago compared to 6% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 4.2% above the previous marketing year.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 46,600 MT 2012-13: 26,300 MT 2013-14: 20,300 MT
Trade Expectations	100,000 to 230,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 26,300 MT for 2012-13 resulted as increases for Honduras (12,600 MT, including 14,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Venezuela (9,500 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,500 MT), Canada (8,300 MT), Nicaragua (8,000 MT), and the Philippines (3,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (20,800 MT) and Mexico (600 MT). Net sales of 20,300 MT for 2013-14 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT), Nicaragua (5,600 MT), and Guatemala (3,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Honduras (8,100 MT) and Trinidad (2,200 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 90,500 MT were down 11% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (25,700 MT), Canada (18,000 MT), Venezuela (13,000 MT), Honduras (12,600 MT), and Panama (8,400 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were below expectations. Export commitments are running 14% ahead of last year’s pace compared to 16% ahead of year-ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2012-13 to be up 13.9% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2012-13: 20,600 MT
Trade Expectations	5,000 MT to 15,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 20,600 MT for 2012-13 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (16,400 MT), Venezuela (3,000 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 15,700 MT were down 48% from the previous week, but up 60% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Norway (8,000 MT), Colombia (3,000 MT), Canada (2,500 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Sales were well above expectations. Export commitments for the new marketing year are 52% ahead of year-ago, compared to 50% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2012-13 to be 46.9% ahead of the previous marketing year.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB)	2013-14: 103,100 RB
Trade Expectations	NA
Weekly Sales Details	Net Upland sales of 103,100 RB for 2013-14 were primarily for Turkey (28,000 RB), China (20,300 RB), Mexico (20,100 RB), Vietnam (13,000 RB), and Thailand (9,800 RB). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (400 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 112,900 RB were primarily to Mexico (21,800 RB), Vietnam (20,500 RB), China (18,600 RB), Turkey (8,400 RB), and Indonesia (8,200 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Export commitments are 24% behind year-ago compared to 23% behind year-ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2013-14 to be 20.2% behind of the previous marketing year.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	Combined: 17,100 MT 2013: 16,800 MT 2014: 300 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 16,800 MT for 2013 were primarily for Japan (4,500 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT), Hong Kong (3,200 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT). Net sales of 300 MT for 2014 were reported for Mexico.
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 13,400 MT were up 13% from the previous week, but down 1% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (2,700 MT), South Korea (2,500 MT), Hong Kong (2,500 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 18,900 MT last week. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 1.8% below last year’s total.
Pork
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT)	2013: 11,200 MT
Weekly Sales Details	Net sales of 11,200 MT for 2013 were primarily for Canada (3,100 MT), Mexico (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (2,600 MT), Japan (2,200 MT), and the Philippines (200 MT).
Weekly Export Details	Exports of 8,600 MT were up 8% from the previous week, but down 2% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,500 MT), Japan (1,300 MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and South Korea (300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators	Exports compare to 7,300 MT last week. USDA projects exports in 2013 to be 5.1% below last year’s total.
Link to USDA report.