Corn

Red Meat Exports Add Over $3 Billion in Value to U.S. Corn and Soybeans in 2025

Fri, 15 May 2026 20:05:40 GMT

U.S. red meat exports emerged as a multi-billion dollar engine for domestic grain producers in 2025, adding more than $3 billion in combined market value to corn and soybean crops. According to a new study by the Juday Group and the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the global demand for American beef and pork accounted for over 600 million bushels of grain usage, effectively boosting the price of corn by $0.58 per bushel and soybeans by $1.05 per bushel.

“Red meat exports bring significant value to corn and soybean producers by driving demand for feed,” says USMEF Chair-Elect Dave Bruntz, who raises corn, soybeans and cattle in south-central Nebraska. “This study shows that red meat exports accounted for more than 500 million bushels of corn usage and nearly 100 million bushels of soybeans in 2025.”

From a national perspective, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.18 billion in market value to corn producers in 2025, $1 billion to soybean producers and $375 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), according to the study. U.S. beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5% per bushel to the value of corn and 10.3% per bushel to soybeans in 2025.

“We initiate this study every year because it quantifies the value that beef and pork exports bring to the red meat supply chain. This added value is why a diverse range of ag industry sectors work together through USMEF to build global demand for U.S. red meat,” says USMEF Senior Vice President John Hinners.

Key findings from the study, which utilized 2025 statistics provided by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and data compiled by the Juday Group, include:

Exporting corn through U.S. beef and pork

Beef and pork exports accounted for 508.4 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $2.18 billion (at an average 2025 corn price of $4.29 per bushel).
Beef and pork exports accounted for 2.68 million tons of DDGS usage, equating to $374.7 million (at an average price of $139.82 per ton in 2025).
Beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.5%, or $0.58, of bushel value at an average price of $4.29 per bushel in 2025.

Exporting soybeans through U.S. pork

Pork exports accounted for 98.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1 billion (at an average price of $10.17 per bushel in 2025).
Pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 10.3% of bushel value, or $1.05, at an average price of $10.17 per bushel in 2025.

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:52 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

Beyond the Blame Game: Navigate the Mental Toll of Modern Ag

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 13:55:09 GMT

When market pressures mount, it is easy to succumb to the “blame game.” Yet, the most resilient operations are those that anchor themselves in a mission larger than the current balance sheet. For leaders like James Burgum and Lamar Steiger, coping with stress isn’t just about managing the books, it’s about managing the mindset.

The Many Hats of the Modern Producer

James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes the first step in managing stress is acknowledging the sheer weight of the roles farmers play.

“One of the things I did when I stepped into my role is an exercise where I said to our team, ‘Help me understand all the hats on the farm – farmworker, agronomist, grain merchandiser, mechanic, truck driver, snow removal lead, banker, economist,’” Burgum said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “You start to go down the list, and its dozens and dozens of roles that an individual farmer plays.”

By recognizing the complexity of these roles, Burgum argues that producers can move toward servant leadership—prioritizing the team’s needs.

“There are things that are much more important and much bigger than the challenges we’re wrestling with on the job every day,” Burgum says. “It’s hard to juggle all the balls, but at the end of the day, we want everyone on our team to make sure they get home at night and be there for their families.”

Choosing Abundance Over Scarcity

Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, learned about stress through the lens of his father, a man who seemed to face every possible setback: health crises, financial downturns and missed market peaks.

The farm struggled during times of high interest rates in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and his father was diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder, Guillain-Barre, that left him paralyzed for six months.

Still, his dad always had an attitude of abundance, not scarcity, Steiger says.

“With my brothers holding other obligations, I was left to milk the cows,” Steiger says. “We were so far behind, and all my dad would say is, ‘It could be worse.’”

Breaking the Silence

Eventually, his family lost the dairy. After hitting rock bottom and battling depression , Steiger realized that the “tough it out” mentality was a liability, not an asset.

“When the stresses pile up, you’ve got to find help,” Steiger says. “I wasn’t ‘man enough’ to step up and say, ‘Hey, something’s wrong here.’ I should have said, ‘Time out—this is not working.’”

Steiger’s advice for those feeling the weight of the current market is simple: Find your “who.” Whether it is a spouse, a neighbor or a professional, talking through the stress is the only way to separate your self-worth from the volatility of the markets.

“In agriculture, we’re so reliant on outside forces,” Steiger says. “You’ve got to have an attitude that it’s going to work out. As my Dad would say, ‘Well, we never missed a meal.’ That was his bottom line for ‘It’s okay.’”

From Constraints to Catalysts: How Ag Leaders Turn Hardships into Strategy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:19:01 GMT

In an industry defined by “one-year-at-a-time” cycles, the greatest threat to a growing operation isn’t just a market downturn—it’s the inertia that comes with size. Farm Journal CEO Prescott Shibles argues that long-term survival requires a rare blend of faith and agility. To maintain an entrepreneurial mindset, leaders must lean into “conviction” as the core of a strategy that survives the lows.

Here is how four industry leaders are turning today’s constraints into tomorrow’s differentiators.

1. Build when times are hard.

When Brent Smith, president and CEO of NewLeaf Symbiotics, joined the company in 2023, the grain market was entering a significant down cycle. While some saw a risky time to lead a startup, he saw an opportunity.

“I learned in my first startup that the best time to build a business is in hard times,” Smith said said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “Because if you can’t withstand tough times, you’re not going to survive long term.”

For Smith, survival meant doubling down on the company’s core: science. Despite the pressure to cut costs, NewLeaf continues to spend half of its operating expenses on science.

“It would be very easy to peel that back,” he admits. “But we focused on projects that make the most impact the quickest, while keeping an eye on the long-term innovation in our pipeline.”

2. Control what you can control.

Farmers face the ultimate constraint every year: the weather. Scott Beck, president of Beck’s Hybrids, recalls the planting crisis of 2019 when constant rains kept tractors out of the fields well into May.

“I was concerned for our customers not being able to plant, but also for us not being able to plant our seed for the next year,” Beck says. “There was nothing that we could do to control the weather, but we could control how we interacted with our customers.”

Rather than retreating, the Beck’s team focused on transparency and empathy, using video series to connect with farmers and even forming small groups for prayer and support. Ultimately, they wanted farmers to know they cared and were there to support them however they could.

Despite the financial reality of what could happen if farmers didn’t plant and returned seed, Beck’s decided their course of action would not include employee layoffs. Instead, they prepared to sell land to protect their people.

“Fortunately, the weather broke and everybody was able to get planted,” he says. “Then the second miracle happened. We had the second warmest September on record, and that’s what brought the crop through to enable 2019 to not turn out as bad as it started.”

3. Turn disadvantages into advantages.

In 2014, Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, was tasked with a monumental challenge: helping Walmart reinvent its beef supply chain. At the time, the retail giant was at a disadvantage, forced to accept whatever the major meatpackers provided.

Steiger’s strategy was to turn that lack of control into a new kind of independence.

“I convinced the Walmart team to go around the traditional supply chain,” Steiger says. Today, Walmart sources 28% of its beef from its own “farm-to-table” supply chain.

There’s no question that decision was really good for Walmart. But Steiger says it was also really good for him personally.

“It reminded me that no matter how big you are, there are always challenges,” he says.

4. Create “white space” for the future.

When the day-to-day tasks of an operation become overwhelming, long-term strategy is often the first thing to go. James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes leaders must intentionally carve out “white space” for their teams.

“It’s important to find ways where people can actually spend their time working on the business, not just in the business,” he says.

By protecting time for team members to execute ideas that are three to five years out, Burgum manages the tension between short-term urgency and long-term viability.

“It’s hard to step away from the daily fires you’ll face in your operation, but it’s important,” he adds. “How we manage that tension of short term and long term is creating that white space and making sure that we consciously work on the business.

The Long Game

Ultimately, resilience in agriculture is about knowing when to push and when to pivot.

“You have to know when to put the gas down, and you need to know when to tap the brake,” Smith says. “And regardless of what you are doing, you need to stay focused on what you’re doing.”

Whether it is investing in science during a downturn or choosing customer empathy over the bottom line, these leaders say constraints don’t have to be roadblocks; they can be the very catalysts that drive an operation forward.

Conflict in Iran Ripples Through Global Fertilizer Markets, Raises Prices Even Higher

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 16:28:13 GMT

Update: President Trump took to social media on Tuesday to say he has ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of all Maritime Trade.

He also says the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.

"Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade... If necessary, the United States Navy will begin… pic.twitter.com/pIJyFwL78j
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 3, 2026

The joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran has triggered a significant ripple effect across global markets.

While crude oil prices soared on Monday, the global fertilizer market is also rallying. This comes as conflict threatens the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.

This narrow waterway is located between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It serves as a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy and also handles a substantial portion of the world’s fertilizer supply.

Key for Fertilizer Supplies

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX, notes the Strait of Hormuz accounts for nearly 25% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer.

(StoneX)

“We have got three of the top 10 global urea exporters that sit in the Persian Gulf,” Linville says. “Three of the top 10 anhydrous exporters sit in the Persian Gulf. One of the world’s top five phosphate exporters sits in the Persian Gulf. And with that Strait of Hormuz continuing to stay shut out to safe passage, those tons just don’t matter anymore. They don’t exist until the Strait reopens.”

Conflict Increases Already Historically High Fertilizer Prices

Global fertilizer prices rose immediately following the attack. They moved in tandem with higher energy and natural gas prices, which are the primary feedstocks for nitrogen products.

Fertilizer prices were already at historical highs prior to the conflict. Linville reports urea markets saw the sharpest increases, followed by phosphate.

In New Orleans (NOLA), physical barges for April urea traded at $457 per ton on Friday. By Monday, prices had jumped to approximately $550 per ton.

“We have had prices up about $70 a ton from Friday afternoon trade. It’s been significant,” Linville says.

UAN and anhydrous prices have not reacted as violently, but phosphate values are not far behind.

“Phosphate, we’ve got that price up about $30 a ton from the last trade we had seen. Again, [I’m] a little surprised it’s not up more. That’s, I guess, a thankful thing that’s not up more, but I think more increases are coming. Really, the only major fertilizer that hasn’t been impacted so far is potash. But you can even make a case for that given Israel and Jordan’s importance,” he adds.

Corn-to-Fertilizer Ratio Stretches Further

He says the corn-to-fertilizer price ration was already one of the worst in history, and this has added insult to injury.

“We were already the second or third worst urea-to-corn ratio that we had been for this time of the year, this part of the calendar. This just moves that higher,” Linville explains.

(StoneX )

Timing Threats for Spring Planting

Higher prices aren’t the only problem: Supply is in jeopardy. Linville says, from a timing standpoint, it could not be worse for agriculture.

A multi-week conflict could keep some supply from getting to the U.S. in time for spring planting.

“It takes 30 days to get a vessel of urea to load in the Persian Gulf, sail it over here, hit U.S. shores, and then another three to four weeks to move that product into the interior of the nation to a point where the farmer can put their hands on it,” Linville says.

This means a vessel loading today might not be available until May 1. The window for spring application is closing quickly.

While healthy fertilizer import volumes in February provide some cushion, the industry could see a shift in acreage. Some farmers may move from corn to soybeans if nitrogen supplies do not arrive in the Corn Belt in time.

Trump Confirms Support for Year-Round E-15 Deal

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 15:48:12 GMT

President Donald Trump made a planned visit to Iowa — his first since July 2025 — on Tuesday, focusing on affordability, saying Iowa families are “winning” again under his leadership. Standing in front of a packed crowd in Clive, Iowa, with signs posted on the stage and scattered throughout the crowd that said “lower prices” and “bigger paychecks,” the visit unofficially kicked off the midterm elections where costs for consumers are expected to be one of the main political talking points.

While in Iowa, President Trump highlighted what the White House calls improving economic conditions for Iowa families, pointing to lower fuel prices, tax savings and agriculture-driven growth as signs the state is “winning again.” The President touted all the trade wins, including China buying soybeans and the EU agreeing to buy U.S. ethanol. He says by removing those trade barriers, exports are starting to flow to countries that had stopped buying U.S. ag goods before he took office.

But the reality is agriculture is at a crossroads, especially on the row crop side. Even with the recent trade deals, current economic pressures are creating a crisis in agriculture. Trump did briefly mention that crisis, blaming it on former President Joe Biden.

Trump Pushes Year-Round E15 During Iowa Visit

During his speech in Iowa, President Trump reaffirmed his campaign promise to support year-round E15, signaling a major win for corn growers and the ethanol industry.

“But I’m also working hard to expand your markets domestically,” Trump says. “In the campaign, I promised to support E15 all year round. I did. E15 all year round if I get elected, and I want to let you know, we’ll start right now.”

The statement sparked applause as Trump emphasized that efforts are underway in Congress to finalize approval, calling on House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune to deliver a deal that benefits farmers, consumers, and refiners, including small and mid-sized operations.

“I’m trusting Speaker Mike Johnson, who’s great, and Leader John Thune, who’s great, to find a deal that works. They’re very close to getting it done,” he says. “And I will sign it without delay.”

The president framed year-round E15 as a key part of his broader strategy to expand markets for U.S. corn, support rural communities, and strengthen domestic energy production.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces Congress is actively working on a deal to allow E15 ALL YEAR ROUND that works for farmers, consumers, & refiners.

"Congress is working on a deal, and when they send it to my desk — I will sign it without delay."pic.twitter.com/TOpo3VUDI4
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 27, 2026

Trump Highlights “Historic Turnaround” for U.S. Manufacturing, Touts Deere’s Stock Hitting All-Time High

During his Iowa visit, President Trump touted what he called a historic one-year economic turnaround, pointing to manufacturing growth and new investments across the country.

“And America is respected all over the world like they’ve never been respected,” Trump says. “I thought it would take us two years. This has been the most dramatic one-year turnaround of any country in history in terms of the speed.”

Trump spotlighted John Deere as an example of American manufacturing success. He welcomed the company’s chairman at the event and praised the expansion of production facilities, including what he called two massive new plants.

“You’re opening one in North Carolina, one someplace else, and then you’re expanding all over the place. You’re doing a great job,” he says. “I bought a lot of John Deere stuff. Great country, great company, it’s an honor to have you here.”

The president attributed much of the growth to tariffs and economic policies aimed at attracting investment back to the U.S.

“It is because of tariffs and it is also because of the fact that we had such a tremendous November 5th. That November 5 brought spirit back to our country,” Trump says.

Trump then said that proof in the growth is in the stock market’s performance, including Deere stock hitting an all-time high of 529.51 on January 21, 2026.

But with strains in the farm economy, farm equipment sales saw a steep decline in 2025. Deere and Company, which has a large footprint in the Quad Cities and Des Moines, has laid off over 3,500 employees since October 2023. That downsizing, which the company says is driven by decreasing demand and lower sales, has hit the company’s manufacturing facilities hard, including locations in Waterloo and Ankeny.

John Deere Expands U.S. Manufacturing with Two New Facilities

President Trump highlighted John Deere’s plans to open two major U.S. facilities, marking a significant boost for American manufacturing and rural jobs. The president saying Deere’s decision was due to tariffs.

After the president’s remarks, the company sent out a press release, with John Deere announcing a major expansion with two new U.S. facilities coming soon to the U.S .

Dere says it will build:

A state-of-the-art distribution center near Hebron, Indiana, and a $70 million excavator factory in Kernersville, North Carolina, both set to open within the next year.
The North Carolina factory will bring excavator production back from Japan to the U.S., making John Deere the top domestic producer of excavators.

Together, Deere says the projects are expected to create hundreds of new American jobs, strengthen local economies, and advance John Deere’s commitment to $20 billion in U.S. manufacturing investments over the next decade.

John Deere executives emphasized the expansion as a continuation of their mission to “build America”, enhance innovation, and support the nation’s agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors.

The Strong Push for E15 to Help Turn The Ag Economy Around

As corn growers pressed for year-round E15 ahead of the president’s visit, ethanol advocates say the issue is no longer about executive action. It’s about Congress finishing the job.

Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, says the Trump administration has already taken every step available to it through regulatory action.

Leading into Tuesday’s talk, biofuels leaders pushed for the president to focus on E15, saying rural America’s financial stress is colliding with a narrow policy window to get things like E15 done, and that could generate more demand, quickly changing the outlook for corn and soybean growers.

“What we hear from the team around the president is he did what he could,” Skor told Chip Flory during “AgriTalk” on Tuesday. “He issued an executive order. EPA gave us the summer waivers for last summer. We all know that what we need right now is an act of Congress.”

Skor says the White House wants lawmakers to deliver a bill that can be signed into law and end the seasonal E15 debate for good.

“The conversation has to be ‘Congress, do your job,’” she says. “The White House wants to see Congress get something done so they can bring a bill to his desk, so he can sign it and we can be done with this once and for all.”

That urgency is being echoed across agriculture, she says.

“I’ve got CEOs of all kinds of agriculture trade groups calling me saying: ‘What can we do to be helpful? We’ve got to get this done,’” Skor says. “All of agriculture is supportive of this.”

Iowa’s Reality: Corn Prices Below Cost of Production

Ahead of Trump’s second visit to Iowa in less than a year, corn growers and renewable fuels advocates used the moment to renew pressure for nationwide, year-round access to E15. Corn groups say the timing is critical, as lawmakers continue to stall on permanent E15 access despite strong Midwestern support. To make the push even more visible, Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) released an open letter on Tuesday , thanking the president for his past support of E15 and urging him to help push the policy across the finish line in Congress, while also running a full-page ad in Tuesday’s “Des Moines Register”.

ICGA and @iowafuel today released an open letter thanking @POTUS for his constant support of nationwide, year-round #E15 and asking for his help to finally push E15 access through Congress @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/cxACXijKMN
— Iowa Corn (@iowa_corn) January 26, 2026

According to the letter, corn growers across the country, and especially in Iowa, are struggling as prices remain well below the cost of production. That pressure, they say, is rippling through the broader state economy.

The groups cite recent data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, which ranked Iowa 50th among states for economic growth. They say expanding E15 is one of the fastest ways to reverse that trend.

“The best way to boost corn prices and create meaningful market demand is the immediate authorization of nationwide, year-round E15,” the letter states.

After Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, saying a deal is close, Iowa Corn Growers Association Vice President and farmer from Knoxville, Iowa, Steve Kuiper, expressed Iowa Corn’s appreciation, while highlighting what this could mean for farmers at a critical time.

“Iowa’s corn growers appreciate President Trump shining light on E15 and recognizing the weight this legislation holds to us as corn growers. Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices, high input costs and lack of markets. Passage of year-round E15 is the lifeline many of us need to be able to continue farming,” says Kuiper. “A recent study by Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association shared the positive effects year-round E15 would mean for corn growers. This is a goal we have been working towards for over a decade and getting this issue to the president’s desk and across the finish line is a win we all desperately need. The fact that the President sees this problem and promises a solution is coming is very encouraging and valued by us as farmers.”

Fun fact: today when @realDonaldTrump referenced supporting year-round E15 on the campaign trail, that started on January 19, 2016 at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit, where he was a speaker.

The next Summit is on February 5th and is FREE and open to the public. You might want to… https://t.co/g0G57UWrbF
— Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (@iowafuel) January 28, 2026

Leading up to today’s statements by Trump, both Iowa Corn and Iowa Renewable Fuels reminded the Trump administration that year-round E15 would immediately expand domestic demand for corn at a time when farmers are under intense financial pressure. Even with the latest round of financial aid through the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments, 92% of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession. More than 90% said that will accelerate consolidation in agriculture — something Iowa agriculture is seeing firsthand.

Biofuels Seen as Economic Pressure Point and Opportunity

Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America, appeared on “AgriTalk” before Trump’s talk on Tuesday. He says the group sent a letter to the president earlier this week urging the administration to focus on two immediate policy opportunities.

“We’re excited to see him head to Iowa,” Kovarik says. “We were briefed that the purpose of the conversation was to highlight economic opportunity, perhaps domestic energy dominance.”

Kovarik says Clean Fuels asked the administration to spotlight progress on renewable fuels, particularly finalizing renewable volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard and issuing long-awaited guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit.

“I’m sure you’ve had a lot of conversations around E15 — that’s in the hands of Congress,” he says. “So, what we want to do is highlight for the president the EPA’s efforts to finalize the renewable volume obligations under the RFS as an opportunity to provide market certainty and growth for our industry, as well as finalizing the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit guidance, which we do not yet have.”

That certainty, Kovarik says, has been missing, and the consequences have been felt across rural America.

“Our industry had a really, really tough 2025,” he says. “Following a really great ’24, ’25 was really poor, as it was along the farm economy.”

He says the downturn wasn’t driven by demand alone, but by uncertainty around federal policy.

“It was a lack of profit, lack of margin, which meant reduced capacity,” Kovarik says. “In fact, we’ve had a lot of plants idling.”

After producing more than 5 billion gallons of clean fuels domestically in 2024, Kovarik says output dropped sharply in 2025. Plants across the industry operated at just 60% to 70% of capacity.

“In some cases that may be a plant dialing back to 80%,” he says. “In a lot of cases, particularly the smaller plants, maybe in Iowa, those that don’t produce their own feedstock came offline entirely.”

But it’s not just corn at a crossroads. He says that slowdown directly affects farm demand, especially for soybean oil.

“If our industry got those two things in the near term, we would flip around this industry nearly immediately,” Kovarik says. “Turn these plants back on, buy more soybean oil, add value to the soybean farmer and get this fuel to the consumer.”

Kovarik points to renewable volume obligations as a key pressure point. Under the Biden administration’s final three-year RFS rule, biomass-based diesel volumes for 2025 were set at 3.35 billion gallons — well below what the industry was capable of producing.

“We produced over 5 billion gallons in 2024,” he says. “So, that’s part of the reason our industry had a tough year.”

Looking ahead, Clean Fuels, petroleum refiners and agriculture groups asked EPA to raise 2026 volumes to 5.25 billion gallons. EPA’s proposal came in even higher.

“EPA actually proposed an estimate around 5.6 billion gallons,” Kovarik says. “They were even above ours.”

If final numbers land near that range, Kovarik says it would send a powerful market signal.

“Our feeling is if it comes down anywhere in the neighborhood between what we asked and what EPA proposed, it’s going to be a very, very strong market signal,” he says.

Timing matters, too. Kovarik says EPA has indicated the rule could be finalized soon.

“Our expectation is EPA is committed to have it done within the first quarter of 2026 — that means the end of March,” he says. “Hopefully early- to mid-March.”

As corn growers push for year-round E15 and broader biofuels support during Trump’s Iowa visit, Kovarik says optimism is returning, even after a difficult year.

“Although most folks are really feeling bad about how ’25 was, they’re also very optimistic about 2026,” he says. “Because of what we feel we’re on the cusp of.”

Corn Growers Disgusted as Congress Leaves E15 Out of Government Spending Bills

Just last week, E15 and corn groups were dealt a blow. That’s because year-round E15 was left out of the latest spending package , something corn and renewable fuels groups had been pushing to get included in the latest bill.

When asked how year-round E15 failed to advance earlier this year, Skor points to political realities inside the House.

“Parochial politics,” Skor said on AgriTalk Tuesday. “It’s incredibly frustrating.”

Despite broad ag support and mounting corn supplies, Skor says narrow vote margins and competing interests stalled progress.

“We have been a chorus saying, ‘We want markets, not handouts. We want markets,’” she says. “Look at how much corn we’ve grown in the U.S. We need to find markets.”

Skor says House leadership ultimately pulled the issue from budget negotiations due to concerns over securing enough votes, particularly from members tied to small refinery interests.

“He knew that he could not get the votes he needed to pass the budget,” she says. “So he said, ‘We’re going to table this. We’re going to create a council. We’re going to deal with this separately.’ And that’s what happened.”

Looking ahead, Skor says attaching year-round E15 to a must-pass spending bill remains possible, but unlikely in the near term.

“I’m never going to say never,” she says. “But I think the realistic, immediate path for us is trusting our champions.”

She points to Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa as a key leader on biofuels policy.

“He’s fantastic on our issues,” Skor says. “He proved to be very, very strong in advocating for the Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, 45Z.”

Skor says biofuels groups are now unified behind a legislative compromise that protects liquid fuels while expanding growth opportunities for American ethanol.

“We have the vast majority of liquid fuels united behind a legislative proposal,” she says. “We’ve done a really good job coming up with a compromise that has a future for liquid fuels and growth opportunities for American biofuels.”

As farmers look for demand-side solutions amid tight margins and large corn supplies, Skor says the message to Washington during Trump’s Iowa visit is straightforward: permanent E15 isn’t a wish list item. It’s a market fix agriculture needs now.

In the letter Iowa Corn and IRFA sent this week, both also pointed to Congress’ decision to sidestep E15 language in recent spending bills, instead creating a task force to study the issue. That task force, which is co-chaired by Feenstra, is scheduled to take action by February 28.

“Without permanent access to this market, the long-term viability of our state’s largest economic driver is at serious risk,” the groups wrote. “Today, we are asking for your help to finally push E15 access through Congress.”

It’s that same sentiment that was relayed in a statement from National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) president Jed Bower last week, who said corn growers “were disgusted, disappointed and disillusioned” after spending years of calling on Congress to pass E15.

“I met with Speaker Johnson back in November. He said he was frustrated because DOGE had pulled this out last year. He said he would get something done, and here we are again,” said the Ohio farmer. “The same thing we get all the time. Let’s step on and push on the farmers because there’s not very many of them and we can get away with it.”

Small Refiners Still a Roadblock to Year-Round E15

Even with support from major oil groups, Skor says a small group of refiners continues to wield outsized influence in Washington — enough to stall year-round E15 despite broad backing from agriculture and much of the energy sector.

“Well, enough that they could hamstring the speaker and they could hold up the votes on the budget,” Skor says, responding to questions about whether small refiners still carry weight in Congress.

Skor says the current proposal on the table represents a significant compromise, one she believes should be moving now.

“Let’s get year-round E15. Let’s reform the small refinery program so fewer refiners get it and we have more clarity,” she says. “We are supportive of that.”

She argues the small refinery exemption program has been abused, pointing to a growing number of legal challenges.

“There are over 15 lawsuits that have been filed in 2025 because of these small refiners. They’re greedy,” Skor says. “They’re whiny. They claim and allege hardship, and then they get on investor calls and talk about all the money they made in the quarter. You can’t have it both ways.”

Skor says the ethanol industry and its allies are now focused on exposing what she calls that hypocrisy while maintaining pressure on lawmakers.

“We have a very strong coalition now that should win the day,” she says.

Corn Growers Argue E15 Is a ‘No-Cost’ Solution

Iowa Corn and IRFA frame E15 as both an economic and regulatory fix, calling the current restrictions outdated and unnecessary.

“Removing the outdated regulatory hurdle for E15 is exactly the type of government efficiency you’ve worked for,” the groups wrote, urging Trump to continue applying pressure as Congress debates the issue over the coming weeks.

They also emphasize permanent E15 access would come at no cost to taxpayers, while strengthening American energy dominance and providing a critical lifeline to corn producers.

“Permanent nationwide access to E15 is a common-sense, no-cost solution,” the letter sent earlier this week concludes. “Now is the time.”

With the task force deadline looming and the president back in Iowa, corn growers hope the renewed push will translate into action and finally deliver year-round E15 access they’ve been seeking for more than a decade.

Trump Defends Tariffs, Says Farmers Will Be “Biggest Beneficiary”

Ahead of his Iowa talk, President Trump made an appearance at the Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, where he had an exclusive interview with Fox News. During that interview, Trump strongly defended his use of tariffs, calling them “indispensable” to economic growth and long-term benefits for farmers.

“Tariffs have been indispensable toward success,” Trump says. “We’ve taken in $600 billion in tariffs.”

Trump says some of that revenue has already been directed back to agriculture, including the Farmer Bridge program payments, which are scheduled to be in farmers’ bank accounts by the end of February.

“I gave the farmers $12 billion last week and took them out of tariff money,” he says.

When asked about concerns from Iowa farmers who worry tariffs could hurt exports and commodity prices, Trump says the benefits will take time to materialize.

“It’s going to take a little while to kick in,” he says. “But I think the farmers are going to be the biggest beneficiary.”

Trump points to protections against foreign crops being sold into the U.S. at below-market prices.

“When you used to have people coming in and dumping their crops into the United States, you guys were hurt,” he says. “They’re not allowed to do that because we’re tariffing those crops.”

He also draws parallels to his first-term trade battles, particularly with China.

“The farmers stuck with me the first time, and I was right,” Trump says. “We gave them $28 billion then. Now we gave them $12 billion, sort of a minimal payment.”

While acknowledging legal challenges could arise as the Trump administration awaits the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump still signaled tariffs, or similar tools, will remain part of his strategy.

“If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, we will find something — some other way of doing a similar thing,” he says. “But it’ll be more inconvenient.”

As Trump delivers his message in Iowa, tariffs remain a flashpoint for rural America, balancing promises of long-term protection with near-term uncertainty for farmers navigating tight margins and volatile markets.

These Half-Dozen U.S. Ag Trade Missions Aim To Diversify Global Demand

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:46:10 GMT

Trump’s USDA team has announced its agribusiness trade missions for the year ahead.

“Our team certainly plays an important role in generating demand overseas for the products,” says Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.

Lindberg points to a three-point plan Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ team is deploying:

Get better trade agreements.
Build willing buyer and willing seller relationships.
Hold trading partners accountable.

According to Lindberg, the goal is it “helps to cultivate, it helps to diversify, so we’re not solely focused on one or two key buyers. I think if you go to many business owners and ask them, would you rather have one buyer that buys 80% of your products or would you rather have some diversification to lots of buyers who have ups and downs of their own, I think many of them would say they prefer the diversification model.”

So far, six agribusiness trade missions have been announced for 2026 with the goal of growing global markets, increasing exports and strengthening the agricultural economy.

The six mission destinations, and potential agricultural focus areas, include the following.

1. February 2026, Jakarta, Indonesia

Since 2020, annual U.S. ag exports to Indonesia have hovered between $2.75 billion and $3.25 billion. Overall, it’s the 11^th largest trade partner for U.S. ag goods.

Indonesia is the fourth-largest market for U.S. soybeans following China, the European Union and Mexico. According to U.S. Census Bureau trade data, in 2024 Indonesia imported from the U.S. $1.2 billion in soybeans, $198 million in wheat and $139 million in cotton. This past July, the Indonesia private sector and the U.S. wheat industry signed a memorandum committing to purchasing at least 1 million metric tons of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2030 plus a minimum of 800,000 metric tons of wheat in 2025 (prorated).

The Trump administration has worked to address long-standing barriers to U.S. agricultural trade and expanding market access into Indonesia with a trade agreement eliminating tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. products.

2. April 2026, Manila, Philippines

U.S. ag exports to the Philippines have more than doubled since 2010. In 2024, the total value was $3.5 billion, making it the ninth-largest customer for U.S. ag trade.

With limited domestic production, the Philippines imports nearly all of its dairy products, and specifically $365 million comes from the U.S. Poultry exports to the Philippines totaled $187 million, with a majority of that in frozen chicken leg quarters.

The U.S. gained market share for ethanol imports into the Philippines, having doubled volumes in 2024 with a value of $138 million.

Beef and beef products are the sixth-largest group of ag products the Philippines imports from the U.S. This category has also experienced recent growth by increasing 58% from 2023 to 2024. The U.S. is second to Brazil in market share for beef imported into the Philippines.

In 2024, the Philippines imported $120 million of pork and pork products from the U.S. The country’s local supply has been declining because of African Swine Fever.

According to an announcement in July, the Trump administration said the Philippines will charge zero tariffs for U.S. exports into their market, while the Philippines will pay 19% tariffs to the U.S.

3. May 2026, Istanbul, Turkey

According to USDA analysis, Turkey has grown its strength as an importer of raw materials and then reexported finished products. This includes importing wheat for flour and cotton for apparel.

Because of its geographic location, Turkey has also grown as a strategic regional transshipment hub, connecting U.S. exporters with trade partners across the Caucasus region.

In September, Turkey lifted its retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. ag products: rice, tree nuts, distilled spirits and more. The Trump administration says a focus for the upcoming agribusiness trade mission will be to address nontariff barriers to trade, which includes import bans on U.S. animal protein.

4. August 2026, Australia and New Zealand

The Trump administration says its trade breakthroughs with Australia will give greater access to U.S. beef exporters. The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement is structured to give comprehensive duty-free market access.

Other protein sectors have significant trade established with Australia. In 2024, $328 million worth of U.S. pork and pork products were imported. And $173 million of U.S. dairy products were brought into the country.

New Zealand imported $520 million worth of U.S. ag goods, including: soybean meal, dairy ingredients (lactose and whey), fresh fruit and distiller’s dried grains.

5. September 2026, Saudi Arabia

This agribusiness trade mission will focus on technical issues and nontariff barriers. Saudi Arabia is the 23^rd largest ag export market for the U.S., and it is a gateway to the $3 billion market for U.S. ag goods that is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

Over the past 10 years, the country has increased its imports of U.S. hay by 540% to its recent total of $152 million in 2024.

Corn, tree nuts and rice are also key ag goods exported from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia, totaling $239 million, $169 million and $123 million, respectively.

6. November 2026, Vietnam

USDA says this trade mission will focus on preferential access for specialty cheese and meats as well as improved market access for U.S. peaches and nectarines.

U.S. ag exports to the country peaked in 2018 at $4 billion and in 2023 were around $3.1 billion. Ranked from highest value to smallest, the top five ag products exported from the U.S. into Vietnam in 2023 were: cotton, soybeans, distillers grains, soybean meal and tree nuts.

For meat and meat products, the key prospects include frozen/chilled beef (boneless and bone-in), frozen chicken (leg quarters, legs and paws), and turkey.

Dairy could be a growth market for U.S. exports into Vietnam as nonfat dried milk powder has led the segment to total $146 million of imports in 2023. Fresh cheese (for foodservice/restaurants) is in demand by younger generations despite not being part of a traditional diet in the country.

USDA also points to fresh fruit as a growth category for the country, namely apples, cherries and grapes.

Why Can't Soybeans Bottom With China Purchases? Are They Buying Corn?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:39:25 GMT

Corn and wheat ended higher Tuesday with soybeans lower. Livestock futures saw a down day in cattle but higher in hogs.

Corn Rallies on China Buying?
Corn futures were up for a second day after seeing technical buying and with some talk of China buying corn out of the Pacific Northwest. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies. However, he is not seeing evidence of those purchases and doubts China needs corn. “I don’t know why China would buy U.S. corn. It wasn’t part of the agreement, which is yet to be signed. So unless it was politically motivated, I would think China would want to go to Brazil. They have this new relationship with Brazil. When it comes to their corn, I think they want to protect their relationships with Brazil,” he says.

He admits port values in the PNW did kind of spike and so did basis. However, he doesn’t think that necessarily means China. “It could be one of our normal customers, like Japan, for example,” he says.

Corn Sees Short Covering
So Seifried thinks the bounce was technically inspired buying after the March contract bounced off the 100-day moving average support area on Wednesday. However, corn has been trading sideways between that support and overhead resistance up at the 200-day moving average. He says if corn could finally close above that level for more than a day, it could take out the $4.50 area and stage a bit of a breakout.

“We saved a breakdown below the neckline of what could potentially be a head and shoulders topping formation in corn. Now, if we were able to get up and over that 200-day moving average for the fourth time, close above it and then not break down the very next day like we have the previous three times. We could potentially break out to the upside and really negate this potential head and shoulders formation,” Seifried explains.

Corn Needs a Catalyst
However, corn will need a catalyst to get above that chart resistance because farmer selling picks up when corn gets to the top side of the trading range. The catalyst could come in the January WASDE if USDA would lower yield. It would take a sizable cut to get the bulls excited and get below 2 billion bu. carryout he says. “I do think if you cut two or three bushel an acre off of corn, we’ll get below a 2 billion bu. carryover, but I don’t know about significantly below 2 billion bushel because it will be offset by USDA lowering feed and residual,” he explains.

Wheat Follows Corn
Wheat futures got spillover support from the corn market but Seifried says soft red winter wheat also saw technical buying to relieve its oversold condition. “Chicago wheat hit new contract lows Tuesday and Wednesday so it was due for a correction,” he says. However, wheat will have a tough time rallying due to the big global production. “USDA has had to continue to raise the world production number. I think we’re, what, 30 MMT off of the original number they had a few months ago,” he states. China canceling two cargoes of white wheat from the U.S. was also bearish for the market. “Anytime China cancels anything, that really does not help the market psychology.”

Why Do Soybeans Continue Lower Despite China Purchases?
The soybean market continues to slide despite the confirmation of export sales and China soybean purchases. USDA reported another 4.2 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Thursday morning and adds to the string of recent purchases that have included China. Seifried says however, that business has not been enough to support the market because it’s half the soybean purchases China made last year.

“The problem is, is that I think the markets realized that 12 million metric tons probably isn’t enough to get us to the USDA full marketing year expectations for our exports, and that they’ll probably have to cut exports again if China doesn’t buy above and beyond that 12 million metric tons. And while the buying is good, the pace does not suggest necessarily that they’re going to outperform on that one,” he explains.

Seifried says South American weather is also favorable and soybean prices in Brazil are cheaper than the U.S. and so there’s no reason for China or any other countries to buy soybeans if it isn’t politically motivated.

Funds also got near record long in mid-November while the government was shut down and they are exiting those positions. “The analyst guesses were, were so far off they weren’t even half of what the funds actually accumulated as far as their long position. And the funds have just simply lost interest in the story. And so they’re getting out of that position,” he adds.

Soybeans Make New Lows for the Move
Soybean futures made new lows for the move on additional technical selling and fund liquidation. Seifried says the market confirmed the head and shoulders top, fell to fill the chart gap areas and then closed below that level which is bearish. Funds got near record long in soybeans in mid-November and then started to bail on those positions and take profits and they are still liquidating.

Profit Taking in Cattle
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day with the market consolidating after several attempts to take out chart resistance areas. Seifried says in live cattle the market has been capped by the 100-day moving average. So, cattle are at a pivotal point and need to fill gap areas on the chart to keep moving higher.

“I mean, the good news there is that both cattle and feeders did close well off their lows. So, you know, we didn’t completely fall apart after running into the one hundred day moving average, major moving average pretty much five days in a row. Not being able to to to break through it and break out to the upside and fill the gap above us. The market finally just gave in a bit.” he says.

Cash trade will also be a key. Thursday some light trade developed in the North at mostly $358 dressed, up $4, with a range of $355 to $363 and live sales prices at $228.

Lean Hogs Finish Higher
Lean hog futures were higher on short covering and fund buying after a lower day on Wednesday. Seifried says the hog market is also getting support from a possible seasonal bottom in cash and cutouts.

Iowa Farmer Battles Today's Pests While Eyeing Tomorrow's 'Mean Sixteen' Threats

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 19:31:41 GMT

For Worth County, Iowa, farmer Sarah Tweeten, the list of high-priority agronomic threats isn’t a political abstract — it’s a harsh reality she deals with every season.

Farming with her parents, Brian and Julie, and her uncle Roger, Tweeten has been steering the partnership toward more resilient cropping practices since joining the operation in 2021. This includes shifting from conventional tillage to strip tillage and splitting nitrogen applications.

The changes are part of a broader mindset: Protecting yields today from weeds, disease and insects while aggressively preparing for the next generation of agronomic threats. This forward-thinking approach is what led Tweeten to Washington, D.C., earlier this week as a Farm Journal Foundation farmer ambassador to help introduce a new report: “ The Mean Sixteen: Major Biosecurity Threats Facing U.S. Agriculture and How Policy Solutions Can Help. ”

Today’s Battles and Tomorrow’s Warnings
Researched and developed by Stephanie Mercier, PhD, the report takes an in-depth look at 16 significant pest issues U.S. farmers face now or could realistically in the future.

Tweeten is already battling a couple of the problems that underpin the urgency behind the research. For example, Palmer amaranth (pigweed) is gaining ground in her fields and across Iowa. The pervasive broadleaf weed can drastically reduce yields, with studies showing corn yield reductions between 11% and 91% and soybean yield reductions of 17% to 68%.

“We’ve struggled with pigweed as it continues to establish more resistance to our herbicides in our toolkit,” Tweeten says.

Two additional agronomic issues the report details include:

1. Asian Soybean Rust. First detected in the U.S. in Louisiana in 2004, this fungal disease has spread to southern states like Georgia and Mississippi. Scientists warn that warming winters could enable its migration to the Midwest, adding to existing disease pressures.

2. Corn Ear Rot. It can lead to aflatoxin production, making corn unmarketable and posing risks to humans and livestock. Aflatoxin is an issue Pickens County, Ala., farmer Annie Dee says is an ongoing problem for corn growers in her area.

“If we have aflatoxin, it can be impossible to sell the corn,” says Dee, also a Farm Journal Foundation Farmer ambassador.

A more recent threat she references is the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (bird flu) on local poultry farms.

Since January 2022, HPAI has been confirmed in a commercial or backyard poultry flock in all 50 states.

(USDA)

“An important market for us is poultry feed meal, so that’s a constant worry. The trickle-down effect is if we can’t move our corn then we can’t meet our financial obligations,” Dee adds.

Despite agricultural R&D offering a high ROI — $20 in benefits for every $1 spent — the Farm Journal Foundation report notes public funding for ag research has been declining over the past two decades.

“Farmers urgently need sustained support for aflatoxin research and prevention because these risks threaten our yields, our markets and the trust consumers place in American agriculture,” Dee says.

U.S. public spending on ag research and development has been falling for two decades.

(USDA-ERS)

African Swine Fever Has ‘Devastating Potential’
Looking to the future, Tweeten says she is concerned about African swine fever (ASF) and its potential to impact crop farmers as well as hog producers. The highly contagious swine disease hasn’t been detected in the U.S. mainland, but it isn’t far away. ASF has been confirmed in the Caribbean countries of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, roughly 700 miles from Miami, Fla.

“Being a farmer from Iowa, where we have probably eight times the amount of pigs as we do people, an outbreak of ASF would be just devastating to our state,” Tweeten says.

Hogs are among the biggest customers for the corn and soybeans Tweeten and her family grow. If African swine fever were to shut down hog production or exports, it wouldn’t just be a blow to livestock producers – it would hurt the entire agricultural community, she contends.

Read about 5 livestock diseases that could impact U.S. food security and economic stability.

Food Security Is National Security
When it comes to justifying funding for ag research, Tweeten knows there’s competition for every federal dollar. But she believes agriculture deserves a front-row seat — not only because of its economic weight and impact on farmers, but because of its role in national security.

“There’s that argument that food security is national security,” she says. “If there’s one thing COVID made us aware of, it’s that a disruption to our food chain can be terrifying, quite frankly.”

The pandemic made consumers and policymakers more aware of supply chain vulnerability. In 2020, the shock to the supply chain came from a human disease and logistical bottlenecks.

(Sarah Williams Photography)

Next time, Tweeten says, the disruption could just as easily come from animal or plant disease — whether African swine fever in hogs, Asian soybean rust or some other pathogen in crops. She worries about scenarios where farmers could face a fast-moving disease or crop pest while critical tools are still hung up in regulatory delays.

Her message: Farmers need a full toolbox, not one that’s half-built by the time a threat arrives.

“Ag needs to be in a good position when these sorts of emerging diseases and pests come into the country,” she says, “to have the tools in our toolbox ready for farmers to pull out.”

About the Farm Journal Foundation
The Farm Journal Foundation is a farmer-centered, non-profit, nonpartisan organization established in 2010. It works to advance agricultural innovation, food and nutrition security, conservation, and rural economic development.

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 16:48:46 GMT

From disease to drought, this 2025 crop has been thrown a curve ball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA projecting currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month.

USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bu. per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre.

But as AgWeb reported earlier this week , southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network (CPN) .

A map of counties where Southern Rust has been confirmed or reported in 2025.

(CPN )

Add to that fresh concerns about drought, as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is now covering 33% of the country. When it comes to agriculture, 5% of the corn crop is now considered in drought, 11% of the soybean crop and 30% of the cotton crop.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey authored the Monitor this week, saying the drought picture has drastically changed over the past month.

“We’re seeing rapid expansion flash drought across the mid-south, lower Midwest into the Northeast,” Rippey says. “All of this drought has come on in just the last few weeks. At the end of July, we were virtually drought free in the Midwest, so to see these yellows and tans starting to light up, that is reflective of the overall dryness. Of course, it’s a different story in the West where we’ve got drought really deeply entrenched. But from the big picture here, a lot of focus on those developing drought areas from the mid-South into the northeast.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows how the dry August is impacting the drought picture across the country.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Rippey says as the taps turned off for some areas, some portions of the Eastern Corn Belt are seeing their driest August on record. He says that dryness is extending westward into parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt.

“Agriculturally, all eyes are on the Northern Mississippi Delta into the Ohio Valley and the southern Corn Belt. A lot of those areas are receiving less than half of the normal rainfall during the month of August. A few areas have less than 25% of normal,” Rippey says. “And with those taps turning off, that is depleting topsoil moisture. We’re going to have to wait and see with crop production in September to see how the crops have handled this late dryness.”

The map showing the percent of normal precipitation proves areas of the Corn Belt, West and Northeast have turned off dry to end the summer.

(Brad Rippey, USDA)

Rippey says, on a positive note, temperatures have remained mild. So, even though the moisture has been sparse or absent, at least temperatures didn’t amplify the situation. But a dry August is still a concern.

Impact on Yield
Peter Meyer, who helped lead Pro Farmer Crop Tour in the east last week, says with the amount of dryness that’s entered the picture —and the fact that disease has exploded in many Midwest fields over the past week — he thinks the crop is getting smaller, not bigger. But that’s something that likely won’t show up until USDA factors in test weight, which will be the October report.

“I think the crop has gone backward since [Pro Farmer] Crop Tour,” Meyer says. “When I start to look at some of these numbers for the month of August, it was extremely dry in many, many areas. We’re talking the top 10 or 15 dry years out of the last 150, 160 years. So, that’s why the crop ran out of gas. It had a lot of moisture. The heat was there. It pushed a crop further and faster. I think we have an issue.”

Meyer says based on those factors, he’s dropped his yield estimate from the 183 bu. per acre he personally projected during Crop Tour last week.

“But I’m still not below 180 [bu. per acre]. I think we’re going to have an early harvest, and I think we’re going to have an earlier harvest in beans, too. That’s represents a problem here as far as the market is concerned.”

“It definitely feels like it’s going backward,” said Jim McCormick with AgMarket.net on U.S. Farm Report. “When we talk to our clients, which we have some all across the country, they are really concerned about it. Probably a little bit more in the east and the west where we’ve seen some of the driest conditions in 130 years in parts of Ohio. Is it a disaster? No, but it’s definitely taking the top end off the crop.”

Dan Basse, who’s AgResource Company’s president and founder, agrees the U.S. corn and soybean crops could be losing yield, but he warns that it may not be a dramatic cut.

“I think its going backward, but maybe not to the degree that the farmer would like,” Basse said on U.S. Farm Report. “We dropped our yield estimate from 189.2 to 187.1 [bu. per acre]. So, we’re down a skosh from USDA, but this is still a big crop. And some of the early deal data we’re getting out of Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas is above what expectations were. When you think about this crop, southern rust is a bad disease if you get it into blister or early milk stage. But when it happens at dent, you’re looking at yield losses of zero to 4%. So, let’s hope that farmers applied one application of fungicide and that kept them until the crop got in the dent. I’m hoping that’s going to limit yield losses going forward.”

USDA’s next yield revision could come Sept. 12. That’s when the agency is slated to release its latest crop production report. But if you look at USDA’s methodology in September, which is to factor in ear counts and pod counts, Basse thinks USDA could potentially raise its yield estimate next month.

“I think, in general, they tend to grow a little bit bigger,” McCormick says of USDA’s historical pattern of yield estimates from August to September. “I mean, look at last year’s analog year. The crop was big in August, it got bigger in September, then again in October before they started revising it down. It would not be a surprise that they will go bigger, but there’s gonna be a lot of pushback, like Dan said, from the disease pressure. There’s going to be a wide range on the estimate for the September WASDE when it’s all said.”

Basse adds: “I wouldn’t be surprised if USDA raises yield next month. Even on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, it showed us record ear counts and record pod counts. Those are the two most important ingredients for the September report. Now, in October, we’ll have more to know about pod weights and ear weights. But for September, I’m kind of expecting USDA is going to be a few bushels, if you will, from the August estimate. It’s the October report that will determine how big is big.”

West Nile Virus Activity Spikes to 20-Year High in the Midwest

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 22:08:01 GMT

Scouting cornfields now might net you a different problem than the insects you might have anticipated encountering. An Iowa State University researcher says there are “very high levels” of West Nile virus (WNV) trending in Iowa and other Midwestern states currently.

“This week had the highest observed WNV activity at this point in the summer observed in over 20 years. This trend is of serious concern for the next eight weeks when WNV transmission risks are the highest,” writes Erin Hodgson , ISU Extension entomologist specialist.

To date in 2025, there have been 219 cases of WNV reported in 29 states. In 2024, there was a total of 1,466 cases of WNV reported in the U.S., according to Vector Disease Control International.

In Iowa, data is generated from ongoing mosquito surveillance efforts coordinated by Ryan Smith, ISU associate professor and entomologist. Smith has implemented an interdisciplinary approach to examine mosquito immunity and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Leading Cause Of Mosquito-Borne Disease
West Nile virus is transmitted through the bite of a Culex mosquito, commonly called a house mosquito. It typically picks up the virus by feeding on an infected bird. West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States.

In general, people do not spread the infection.

There are no vaccines to prevent or medicines to treat West Nile in people. Fortunately, most people infected with the virus do not feel sick, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). About 20% of people who contract the disease will experience mild symptoms like fever, headache, and body aches.

In a small percentage of cases, the virus can cause serious neuroinvasive disease issues, such as encephalitis or meningitis, which can be severe and even fatal, the CDC reports.

People older than 60 and those with weakened immune systems are at highest risk for severe illness.

The CDC offers an interactive site where you can view and track the total number of human infections of WNV reported on a county-by-county basis. See current results in your county here .

Implement The Three Rs
To prevent mosquito bites, the CDC encourages people to practice the ‘Three Rs’:

REDUCE - make sure doors and windows have tight-fitting screens. Repair or replace screens that have tears or other openings. Try to keep doors and windows shut. Eliminate, or refresh each week, all sources of standing water where mosquitoes can breed, including water in bird baths, ponds, flowerpots, wading pools, old tires, and any other containers.

REPEL - when outdoors, wear shoes and socks, long pants and a light-colored, long-sleeved shirt, and apply an EPA-registered insect repellent that contains DEET, picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, IR 3535, para-menthane-diol (PMD), or 2-undecanone according to label instructions. Consult a physician before using repellents on infants.

REPORT – report locations where you see water sitting stagnant for more than a week such as roadside ditches, flooded yards, and similar locations that may produce mosquitoes. Your local health department or city government may be able to add larvicide to the water, which will kill any mosquito larvae.

Your next read: Southern Rust Has Infected Iowa Corn in ‘Likely Every County’

Yes, Corn Sweat is Real, But Here's Why the Humidity is So Thick This Year

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 17:13:37 GMT

In a year when most meteorologists were watching signs of drought — especially across the western half of the country — the middle of the U.S. has been inundated with moisture. It’s not just been hot, but unusually humid — even for this time of year.

Several Midwestern states are reporting a July that ranks as one of the top 10 wettest on record. Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says you can look to the Gulf to understand what’s been pumping all this moisture into much of the Corn Belt this year.

“We’ve had nonstop access to Gulf moisture. So, there’s just been nothing turning that off. As a result, we’d been able to just generate huge storms on plenty of moisture,” he says.

What Exactly is Corn Sweat?
The other factor that’s pumping moisture into the atmosphere is something called “corn sweat” — the process where corn plants release water vapor into the atmosphere. As the corn plant absorbs water from the soil and releases it through the pores in its leaves, the plant can cool down and transport nutrients.

“Corn sweat shows up a lot in some of the news media,” Snodgrass says. “We just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep. But the reality is we expect to see more ridge-riding storms.”

Snodgrass says last week’s rains that caused flash flooding across Iowa, Illinois and Missouri are proof of what the ridge-riding storms can do this time of year.

“We continue to see storms running the periphery of a ridge that’s going to probably live farther into the Southern Plains of the United States. But until you shut off the Gulf, we’re going have moisture coming through the country,” Snodgrass adds.

That “corn sweat” isn’t just aiding the recent ridge-riding storms. According meteorologist Ryan Maue, it’s also fueling some of the recent humidity.

At 7 pm ET, the corn fields 🌽were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature = heat index > 115°F 🔥

Dewpoints in the lower-80s + temperatures in 90s = insane "feels like" readings 📈 pic.twitter.com/JP89U5qXzt
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 28, 2025

Maue said as of 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, the corn fields were adding 20°F to 25°F on top of the actual temperature, which means it felt like 115°F outside.

Much of that is because of the dew point, which according to Maue, reached in the low ‘80s. Dew points of 80°F or higher locally aren’t unusual, but they aren’t necessarily common either. It’s that high dew point creating such heavy humidity, and it’s no coincidence those dew point levels were highest around where there’s a lot of corn.

And we just can’t forget that each acre of corn can evaporate an additional 4,000 gallons of water into the atmosphere. Now, that’s not a lot, believe it or not. If you precipitate it back out onto that acre, it’s only about 0.15" deep.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien

With 95 million acres of corn planted in the ground this year, along with all the recent rains, it explains why the dew points and humidity has been so high.

The good news is the Midwest is currently in peak “corn sweat” time, which means the dew point should improve soon.

However, when it comes to moisture, Snodgrass thinks this wet weather pattern could continue over the next couple of weeks.

“If you ask me, the smartest forecast going longer term is probably persistence. In other words, what have we just seen? That will keep going until there’s some big overwhelming push to shove the atmosphere in a different direction,” he says.

Things should dry out for fall harvest. To understand the possible change in the weather pattern, watch Snodgrass’ full forecast from U.S. Farm Report.

Ag Groups Applaud Nomination of Julie Callahan as USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 22:02:09 GMT

President Donald Trump nominated Julie Callahan on July 17 to be the chief agricultural negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), a move celebrated by many agricultural organizations.

The USTR chief agricultural negotiator plays a critical role, representing the interests of America’s farmers and ranchers and the U.S. government in trade talks with foreign nations, working to reduce trade barriers, opening new markets, and eliminating unfair trade practices.

“America’s pork producers congratulate and look forward to continuing to engage with U.S. Trade Representative Chief Agricultural Negotiator nominee Julie Callahan,” says National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) CEO Bryan Humphreys. “Exceptionally familiar with agriculture and science-based standards, Julie has also been actively engaged with trade negotiations in the Trump administration and is in a unique position to advocate for U.S. agriculture on the world’s stage.”

Callahan has experience working in the trenches at USTR negotiating on behalf of U.S. agriculture. She currently serves as the assistant U.S. trade representative for agricultural affairs and commodity policy.

“At this especially critical time for agricultural trade, President Trump has tapped a proven leader who is a tireless advocate for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and all of U.S. agriculture,” says Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation president and CEO.”

He highlights her knowledge, experience and dedication to this position.

“She will explore creative solutions to expand market access for meat and poultry and we also look forward to working with her in removing non-tariff barriers to trade,” says Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO of the Meat Institute. “We urge her swift confirmation in the Senate.”

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall says Callahan understands how important international partnerships are to agriculture and the critical role of strong export markets to strengthen the U.S. farm economy.

“As someone who has come through the ranks and worked directly on trade agreements, including reducing both technical barriers and tariffs, Julie will hit the ground running,” Duvall says. “Her previous experience in the Foreign Ag Service at USDA and also at FDA provide important perspective to inform her work to help resolve challenging issues on the trade front.”

The nomination comes about a week after 42 agricultural organizations sent a letter to President Trump encouraging him to move quickly on nominating someone for the role.

“Corn grower leaders have been very vocal in recent weeks about the need to fill this important position, as the chief ag negotiator plays a critical role in prioritizing agriculture issues in ongoing trade negotiations,” says Illinois corn grower and National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) president Kenneth Hartman Jr. “We are thrilled to see the president listened and chose someone of this caliber to represent the interests of America’s farmers.”

With nearly 20 years of experience working on international issues and trade at a variety of agencies, including USTR, the Food and Drug Administration and the USDA, Callahan’s experience will help American agriculture given ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations, NPPC shared.

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:45:05 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.

Hogs Ease After Big Rally, Cattle Hit Record Highs and Soybeans Gain After Trump/Xi Call

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 13:20:39 GMT

Hogs ended mostly lower on Thursday, with all-time highs in cattle and grains mostly higher as well.

Lean Hogs Consolidate Thursday After Recent Rally

Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says lean hogs ended mixed to lower on Thursday with August seeing some profit taking after making new highs for the move early in the session. August hogs have been on a big rally gaining nearly $7 in seven sessions.

The consolidation came despite a positive call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi earlier in the day and decent weekly pork exports at 36,400 MT, with a sale of 12,700 MT to China.

Hoogendoorn was at World Pork Expo and says there is optimism about the hog market with the recent rally which has been pushed by higher cash and cutouts.

The CME lean hog index is up another 82 cents to $97.57 as of June 4. Pork cutout firmed $1.50 to $108.12 on Thursday. Both are trading at their highest levels since August 2023.

Packers cut kills the last few weeks he says and cutouts responded moving above $107, but at the same time there’s not an excess supply of hogs.

The deferred lean hog contracts just made new contract highs with disease concerns in production areas like Iowa, mostly due to PEDV.

Hoogendoorn says these prices are offering some profitable levels for hog producers all the way down the futures board.

Cattle Futures Explode To All-Time Highs

Cattle futures made all time highs in both live and feeder cattle offerings.

Funds stepped back in to buy with the steep futures discount to more record cash cattle trade.

Cash broke in the South already Wednesday at $225 to $228, up $3 to $6 from last week and there were some trades at $230 in Kansas before the close on Thursday.

Later in the afternoon light cash cattle trade developed in Texas at $232, up $10 from last week’s weighted average.

Light trade was also reported in Nebraska with dressed sales at $380, up $13 from last week’s weighted averages. Live deals at $240, up $5.

Soybeans React to Positive Trump/Xi Call

Soybeans saw gains Thursday, supported by positive news that Trump and Xi’s conversation went well.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and President Xi had a “very good” phone call and “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Next steps involve a meeting between the countries respective teams with Secretary of the Treasury Bessent leading the U.S. team.

The market also saw additional fund and technical buying but was stopped short running into resistance with several moving averages layered overhead on the charts.

Corn Bounces After July Hits New Lows

Corn was higher as well with spillover from higher soybeans and still adding some weather premium.

However, July made a new low for the move and hit a level not seen since October of 2024, before bouncing.

Bear spreading continued to be a feature in the corn market with December gaining on July.

Despite a tight 1.4 billion bu. carryover, Hoogendoorn says the market is telling farmers there is no concern about running out of corn.

He says some of that pressure is coming from the big crop and much lower corn prices in South America.

Chinese Scientist Accused Of Smuggling ‘Potential Agroterrorism Weapon’ Into the U.S.

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 23:10:37 GMT

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with trying to smuggle a fungus, Fusarium graminearum, into the United States.

Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, citizens of the People’s Republic of China, were charged in a criminal complaint with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., false statements and visa fraud.

The charges against the pair were unsealed in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan, on Tuesday.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office references Fusarium graminearum online as a “dangerous biological pathogen … which scientific literature classifies as a potential agroterrorism weapon.”

Fusarium graminearum causes significant diseases in a number of U.S.-grown food crops, including corn, wheat, barley, soybeans and rice.

Diseases caused include Fusarium head blight (scab) in wheat, and two corn diseases Gibberella ear rot and Gibberella stalk rot , which can lower yield and feed quality of silage corn, according to the Crop Protection Network, a partnership of land grant universities.

Toxins the fungus produces can cause vomiting, liver damage, reproductive defects and mycotoxin-induced immunosuppression in humans and livestock, including cattle, hogs, horses and poultry.

One Scientist Arrested, One Returned To China
The 25-page criminal complaint alleges Liu tried to smuggle the fungus through the Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DMA) in July 2024, so he could study it at a University of Michigan laboratory where his girlfriend, Yunqing Jian, worked at the time.

Jian had been living in the U.S. and working at the university laboratory since 2022.

The roots of the case involving Yunqing Jian, 33, and her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, 34, stretch back to March 2024. That is when Liu applied for a B2 tourist visa to enter the U.S.

(The Detroit News and Sanilac County Jail)

According to the criminal complaint, Jian and Liu had both previously conducted work on the fungus in China.

Officials further allege Jian received funding from the Chinese government for her research on the pathogen in China. They also claim she is a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

Jian, who was arrested by the FBI, remains in federal custody. On Thursday, her detention hearing was adjourned until 1 p.m. June 13 to allow time for a new defense attorney to get up to speed.

Liu was sent back to China last year after changing his story during an interrogation at the Detroit airport about red plant material discovered in a wad of tissues in his backpack, the FBI says.

The U.S. does not have an extradition treaty with China, which makes Liu’s arrest unlikely unless he returns.

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

“It is important to note that the university has received no funding from the Chinese government in relation to research conducted by the accused individuals,” the university added. “We have and will continue to cooperate with federal law enforcement in its ongoing investigation and prosecution.”

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

(Michigan News Source)

Boyfriend Spills Intentions To Investigators
An article in The Detroit News said Liu told investigators during an interrogation at the Detroit airport he planned to clone the different strains and make additional samples if the experiments on the reddish plant material failed, according to the government.

“Liu stated that he intentionally hid the samples in his backpack because he knew there were restrictions on the importation of the materials,” an FBI agent wrote. “Liu confirmed that he had intentionally put the samples in a wad of tissues so CBP officers would be less likely to find and confiscate them, and he could continue his research in the United States.”

Liu told investigators he planned on using UM’s Molecular Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory to research the biological materials, the FBI agent wrote.

“Liu stated that, while he was in the United States, he would have free access to the laboratory at the University of Michigan on some days, and that other days his girlfriend would give him access to the laboratory to conduct his research,” The Detroit News article reported.

Before preventing Liu from entering the U.S. and sending him back to China, the investigators found messages between the couple that indicate Jian previously smuggled biological material into the U.S., the FBI agent wrote.

The messages are from August 2022 and discuss smuggling seeds into the U.S.

Lawmakers Respond To The Criminal Complaint
Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement that the Justice Department “has no higher mission than keeping the American people safe and protecting our nation from hostile foreign actors who would do us harm.”

“Thanks to the hard work of our excellent DOJ attorneys, this defendant — who clandestinely attempted to bring a destructive substance into the United States — will face years behind bars,” the attorney general says.

“I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country,” FBI Director Kash Patel said on Tuesday.

(FBI)

FBI Director Kash Patel addressed the arrest of Jian late Tuesday on X, formerly Twitter.

“This case is a sobering reminder that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave consequences … putting American lives and our economy at serious risk.”

U.S. Custom and Border Protection, Director of Field Operations Marty C. Raybon says the criminal charges against Jian and Liu are indicative of CBP’s critical role in protecting the American people from biological threats that could devastate its agricultural economy and cause harm to humans.

“This was a complex investigation involving CBP offices from across the country, alongside our federal partners,” says Raybon in a prepared statement. “I’m grateful for their tireless efforts, ensuring our borders remain secure from all types of threats while safeguarding America’s national security interests.”

Your next read: Surveillance State: Game Wardens Sued for Secret Private Land Intrusions in Alabama

Exclusive Op-Ed: American Farmers and Ranchers Win With U.K. Trade Deal

Fri, 09 May 2025 18:06:30 GMT

By Brooke L. Rollins, 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

President Trump has done it again. Yesterday’s historic trade deal with the United Kingdom, announced on the 80th anniversary of Victory Day for World War II, is a major victory for American producers, consumers, and, above all, American farmers and ranchers.

What became an imbalanced trade relationship between us and the U.K. did not develop by accident. Before yesterday’s deal, the weakened position of American farmers emerged through a combination of three factors:

The average tariff imposed on American agricultural producers by the U.K. has been 9.2% while our average tariff has been 5%.
The U.K. imposed other non-tariff barriers that limited American access to British markets such as limited quota limits, geographical indicators, irregular inspections, and arbitrary health, animal welfare, or environmental concerns not backed by science or data.
The previous administration did our farmers and ranchers no favors by refusing to institute a new deal with any country, including the U.K.

Yesterday’s announcement reverses course and gives American farmers a fair shot at competing in British markets, creating a $5 billion opportunity for new exports for U.S. stakeholders, including U.S. farmers, ranchers, and producers.

While our team finalizes the trade deal, we are working hard to eliminate U.K. tariffs from all agricultural products. The deal secures a decrease from 19% to 0% in the U.K.’s ethanol tariff, offering an opportunity for corn farmers in states such as Iowa and Nebraska to further expand this important, second-largest market for U.S. ethanol. British energy users will likewise benefit from additional homegrown biofuel produced here in the U.S. This week’s trade deal offers our corn and ethanol producers the opportunity to export $700 million in product to a market that was previously closed to them.

Cattle ranchers also have cause for celebration. Beef produced by American ranchers in states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas is the best in the world, and British consumers will now have access to a product that is the envy of the world. This trade deal creates the opportunity for our cattle ranchers to export millions more, which will end up in the pockets of American ranchers who saw a global trade surplus in beef during President Trump’s first term crash to a deficit under the previous administration.

Our rice farmers in states such as Arkansas and Louisiana will also see increased production because of this deal. Consumers in the U.K., which does not grow rice, will now have access to nutritious rice grown in American fields, creating a market potential of $100 million with free access.

We at USDA will not let this moment pass without energetic promotion of our products to British markets. My team and I are traveling to the U.K. next week to share the bounty of American agriculture to a market that is now open to our products. The trade deal announced yesterday commits our two countries to work together to enhance agricultural market access, closes loopholes, and fast-tracks customs procedures for U.S. exports.

The U.K. is the sixth-largest economy in the world and the fourth-largest to which we export. This week’s trade deal is a momentous step forward in our relationship with the U.K. and for the American agricultural industry. During my trip next week, I will stand ready to collaborate with our counterparts in the U.K. and ensure British consumers know American farmers and ranchers are open for business.

Why Did the Ag Markets Fade China Trade Talk News?

Thu, 08 May 2025 15:02:00 GMT

Grain and livestock futures closed mostly lower on Friday.

It was a disappointing close considering the news that top trade officials from the U.S. and China were meeting in Geneva this weekend to de-escalate the trade war.

Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the markets faded the news as the realization set in that no major breakthroughs in the trade talks are expected and a long term trade deal with China could take quite some time.

President Donald Trump also said Wednesday he’s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations with Beijing on trade.

Weather was also a headwind for the corn and soybean markets with fast planting pace and more rain in the forecast for dry areas of the hard red winter wheat belt.

The market is also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer has confirmed they will start to consider the impact of tariffs in the new crop balance sheets.

“That could make these early estimates look a bit too friendly,” says Chatterton.

July corn made new lows for the move hitting chart resistance, failing and then testing triple bottom support on the charts at $4.51.

“It was a big outside day lower,” explains Chatterton, “And so tomorrow’s action will be important to see if there is further technical breakdown.”

Wheat has been an anchor for the corn market with improving crop conditions tied to recent rain.

Lower prices relative to corn are pushing wheat into the feed ration.

The higher dollar and lower crude oil markets were also bearish for the grain complex.

The FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected.

However, Chatterton says Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market was solid and inflation was still somewhat elevated, but the uncertainty in the economic outlook moving forward tied to tariffs.

Cattle futures saw a correction off of Tuesday’s new contract highs, despite higher cash trade.

So far business in the South, has ranged from $218 to $220, steady to $2 higher, with $219 paid on Wednesday.

So is this divergence a concern?

Chatterton calls it a healthy correction in a bull market that continues to be supported by cash and consumer demand with Choice beef values at two year highs.

Lean hogs also had a disappointing day, also fading at least slight progress on trade with China.

Feral Swine Law Setback: What's at Stake for Ohio

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 14:25:21 GMT

Every year, feral swine cost Ohio $2.5 million in losses due to the spread of deadly animal diseases and damage to land and crops. Just as 44 other states have some type of ban on importation of feral swine, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed H.B. 503, known as the Feral Swine Bill , into law last December to curb the problem.

The law was to go into effect in late March, but a county judge recently granted an injunction putting it on hold.

“The court has disregarded the entire purpose of the law and has wildly expanded what it’s designed to do — which is to protect all pork producers from diseases carried by feral swine such as African swine fever,” says Cheryl Day, Ohio Pork Council executive vice president. “This is certainly not something we foresaw, but we are confident that it will be resolved swiftly to ensure the full protection of our state’s farmers and landowners who are at much higher risk otherwise.”

The judge in the case, brought by a feral swine hunting preserve owner, has urged the state of Ohio to seek a “legislative clarification” to the definition of feral swine, which is currently being pursued, the Ohio Pork Council said in a statement.

With unanimous bipartisan support in the General Assembly and numerous supporters, including the Ohio Farm Bureau, Ohio Dairy Producers Association, Ohio Cattleman’s Association, Ohio Soybean Association, Ohio Sheep Improvement Association, Ohio Poultry Association, Ohio Corn & Wheat Growers Association, and the Ohio Forestry Association, the law set out to protect the state from the harm wild pigs cause.

“It’s a bit disturbing that the court did not understand what’s at stake when we have over 3,500 family-based pig farms in Ohio that depend on keeping their animals safe from unnecessary health risks that could devastate them and our state economy,” Day says.

The Stakes are High
As a family pig farmer in Ohio, Nathan Schroeder, president of the Ohio Pork Council from Leipsic, Ohio, says it’s extremely disappointing that the court did not understand what’s at stake.

“Our nation’s poultry farmers have seen how devastating diseases like avian influenza can be and a foreign animal disease brought in by feral swine would be much worse for us, which is why this law must be allowed to go into effect,” Schroeder urges.

Ohio alone could lose an estimated 28,000 jobs and experience losses of up to $115 million per year if African swine fever, a deadly foreign animal disease that impacts both wild and domestic pigs, were brought in, experts say.

“We’ve all seen the devastation that diseases such as avian influenza can have, and we know foreign animal disease losses would be dramatically worse, which is another reason why this law must be reinstated,” Day points out.

Ohio Pork Council is not letting this one slide.

“We’ll be working hard to support the reinstatement of the law so that our industry gets the protection it deserves,” Day says.

Your Next Read: Pigs Don’t Fly: Feral Hog Spread Is A Man-Made Mess

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:07:28 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

Tariff Delay Rallies Ag and Outside Markets, Trumps China Trade War

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 20:36:40 GMT

Grain, livestock and especially outside markets soared on Wednesday.

Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.

A 10% universal tariff is still in place but over 75 countries have reached out to avert tariffs and were rewarded.

It was an unprecedented day in the stock market which reversed and surged in reaction.

“Its a smart move by the Trump Administration because it buys them time to negotiate deals with these 75 countries and the markets have time to absorb that news and calm down,” he explains.

Suderman says this also puts to rest the talk of global recession, which had tanked the stock market, the energy sector and even cattle futures.

“I think the market took it as a positive step forward. Now it’s up to the Trump administration to actually come through and turn those negotiations into something positive, meaning lower tariffs for everybody. And if they can do that, we can actually result to see greater global economic growth and greater demand for commodities,” he adds.

The grain and livestock futures also posted a relief rally despite the escalation of the trade war with China.

China announced retaliatory tariffs of 50% which drew a negative response from President Trump as he slapped another 125% tariff on Beijing.

Suderman says, “Ultimately containing China is one of Trump’s top goals and since they
led the way in retaliation, that’s another reason he said that if any country retaliates, we will keep adding to it. Since that’s what they’ve done, he doesn’t want to give any signal of rewarding that type of behavior,”

He says it took Trump three years to get a trade deal out of China in his first term and he is trying to get a quicker response this time around.

“With a weaker economy, he felt like he could do that. Now, I don’t know if we’re any closer to a trade agreement with China, Because right now they feel like they’re being bullied, so their pride is hurt, and so they’re backing off and they’re fighting.”

The Chinese are trying to buy time according to Suderman.

“Hoping that the consumer will turn on Trump, and therefore Congress will turn on Trump and limit his powers or ability to do this. But today’s move kind of cuts that strategy short,” he adds.

The total tariffs on U.S. pork imports into China, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, are at 131% and for beef at 106%.

The American Soybean Association confirmed China’s tariffs on U.S. soybeans are now at 114%.

At what point does China finally break down and negotiate?

Suderman says that’s hard to predict.

The grain markets were shrugging off the China news before the tariff delay as Chinese tariffs won’t impact the current soybean crop and the White House also said it was pausing the Section 301 fees on vessels of Chinese origin and is looking at restructuring those fees.

He thinks the markets can go back to trading their own fundamentals and in the case of the grains that includes Thursday’s WASDE.

Suderman anticipates a tightening of the balance sheets, at least for corn which is positive.

New Food Security and Farm Protection Act Protects Farmers and Consumers From Government Overreach

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 16:24:08 GMT

After the U.S. Supreme Court left an open invitation for Congress to strike down California’s Proposition 12, U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) says it’s time to end this “unjustified and burdensome regulatory overreach” in order to protect family farms and bring down prices for U.S. consumers.

On April 8, Ernst and fellow Senate Agriculture Committee members Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) introduced The Food Security and Farm Protection Act that prohibits any state or local government from interfering with commerce and agricultural practices in another state outside their jurisdiction.

“Proposition 12 is dangerous and arbitrary overregulation that stands in direct opposition to the livelihoods of Iowa pork producers, increases costs for both farmers and consumers, and jeopardizes our nation’s food security,” Ernst says. “I’m proud to be leading the charge to strike down this harmful measure and will keep fighting to make sure the voices of the farmers and experts who know best – not liberal California activists – are heard.”

Pig Farmers Speak Out
This policy averts a disastrous patchwork of contradictory state-by-state farm regulations that would hit hardest small and medium-sized pork producers, says National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) President Duane Stateler, a pork producer from McComb, Ohio.

“U.S. pork producers have just suffered the worst 18 months of financial losses in history, and many farm families are contemplating whether they can pass along their farm to the next generation,” Stateler says. “We urge the Senate to take up this legislation immediately to provide us much-needed relief.” Learn more about Stateler’s story here.

Without certainty from the Food Security and Farm Protection Act , NPPC says there will be many consequences, including:

Widespread, damaging consequences for farmers and consumers alike.
Significant fees forced on producers to pay for outside regulators to audit their farms due to the whims of consumers outside their state’s borders.
Risk of putting farm families out of business by significantly increasing the cost of raising pigs.
Increased prices at the grocery store , as much as 41% for certain pork products.

A Dangerous Patchwork of Regulations
For reasons like these and more, bipartisan support for providing relief from a patchwork of state laws continues to grow with support from President Donald Trump, former President Joe Biden, and their respective Agriculture Secretaries Brooke Rollins and Tom Vilsack, NPPC said in a release.

“The United States is constantly faced with non-tariff trade barriers from protectionist countries, which hurts American agriculture’s access to new markets. The last thing we need is for states like California imposing its will on ag-heavy states like Kansas with regulations that will also restrict our ability to trade among the states,” Marshall says. “Midwest farmers and ranchers who produce our nation’s food supply should not be hamstrung by coastal activist agendas that dictate production standards from hundreds of miles away.”

And it’s not just the pork industry rallying around this legislation.

“Iowa soybean farmers are grateful for Senator Ernst’s leadership to address challenges Prop 12 creates for Iowa farmers,” says Iowa Soybean Association President and farmer, Brent Swart. “Not only do the increased costs of compliance threaten to put pork farmers out of business, Prop 12 increases the price of pork at the grocery store by as much as 40%. Higher prices for pork dampen demand for this high-quality protein which negatively impacts market demand for soybeans used for pig feed. This legislation gives us a chance to protect our farms, our livelihoods, and ultimately, families that need affordable food.”

Iowa Cattlemen’s Association President, Rob Medberry, points out that the Iowa Cattle industry has made it clear that government overreach and overregulation is incredibly burdensome to industries that provide safe, quality and sustainable products for the world.

“Proposition 12 has the potential to further dismantle the livestock industry with the lack of science-based measures. Proposition 12 has already proven to be an unfunded mandate with consumers unwilling to pay premiums for the products that must be compliant with the proposition,” Medberry says. “The inherent cost to become compliant is overbearing and the simple fact of dollars and cents does not add up.”

Opponents Strike Back
Opposition such as the Humane World Action Fund, formerly called Humane Society Legislative Fund, argue against this legislation.

“This bill would hand over sweeping power to a narrow segment of the agriculture industry, overriding the will of voters, dismantling state laws and eliminating hard-won voter-supported protections for the humane treatment of farm animals, food safety and farm workers,” says Sara Amundson, president of Humane World Action Fund. “Let’s be clear: this is a federal overreach that serves Big Pork, not the American people.”

Amundson claims this legislation has been driven by a small group of pork industry lobbyists.

It’s Not Just About Pigs
But Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA) President Stu Swanson disagrees.

“With barriers like Proposition 12 cutting off our ability to supply fellow Americans with Iowa grown pork, it’s not only those families who are being affected, but also our farm families here in Iowa,” Swanson points out.

Iowa Turkey Federation Executive Director Gretta Irwin adds that these inconsistencies create unnecessary burdens for farmers operating across state lines, hinder efficient production, and undermine well-established, science-based practices developed in coordination with industry experts.

Swanson says this is an issue for all of agriculture and one his organization plans to continue to work on with their livestock partners until it gets resolved.

“Consistent with its authorities under the Commerce Clause, it’s time for Congress to solve this problem by passing legislation,” Grassley says. “Our bill will end California’s war on breakfast and make sure delicious Iowa pork can be sold everywhere.”

Stay up to date on Prop 12 here.

Grains Markets Absorb Tariff News, But Why Did Livestock Fail?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:38:33 GMT

Grains end mostly higher on Monday, with livestock seeing triple digit losses.

Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says old crop corn and soybeans rebound as well as the wheat market which have absorbed much of the tariff news.

Of course corn and wheat are USMCA compliant and so that leaves those commodities less impacted by tariffs than soybeans which have been hit by China retaliatory measures.

However, she says corn and wheat were also adding weather premium.

Flooding in the Ohio River Valley and mid-South will cause some replant and planting delays, which the corn market can’t afford with the push to plant 95.3 million acres.

Soft red winter wheat area also saw flooding and there was some freeze damage over the weekend in hard red winter wheat fields.

Wheat also saw some short covering as the funds are still largely short all three wheat classes.

Soybeans also saw some short covering off the lows but may still be vulnerable with possible China soybean cancellations of soybeans left unshipped.

Grains are also positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE Report with anticipation of lower old crop ending stocks for corn.

Blohm says demand has been strong for old crop corn and she thinks its possible the carryout could come in below the trade estimate of 1.5 billion bu., which would be bullish.

As far as South America crop adjustments, she isn’t expecting many changes by USDA in this report.

Livestock saw triple digit losses with additional fund liquidation despite a recovery off the lows in the stock market.

Blohm says cattle were due for a correction and have seen fund selling with the plunge in the stock market and recessionary fears.

So the lower close despite a recovery in financial markets off the lower was discouraging.

However, she says so far cattle futures are still holding uptrend lines on the charts.

Lean hog futures also ended lower after some early strength as President Trump renewed threats to increase Chinese tariffs another 50% if Beijing did not lower their retaliatory measures.

Can Mexico Afford to Retaliate Against the U.S.?

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 19:46:40 GMT

President Donald Trump followed through on his threats of imposing a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% on goods from China. While China and Canada released their list of retaliatory tariffs the same day, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, says they won’t release their list until the weekend.

Sheinbaum said the country will also respond with a 25% tariff on U.S. goods but will announce the products it will target on Sunday.

But can Mexico afford to retaliate? That was one of the questions asked by USDA chief economist Seth Meyer during Commodity Classic this week. The reason is Mexico’s economy is struggling, due to a number of factors, which includes a large informal sector, high budget deficit and unstable infrastructure.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Mexico’s GDP grew only 0.9% year over year in fourth quarter 2024, after expanding 2.% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2022. Economic growth slowed, mainly due to lower investment, slowing consumption and a contracting energy sector.

(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

The Dallas Fed says lower investment and consumption was the main driver behind the slow growth.

“Investment contributed three percentage points less to GDP growth in 2024 compared with 2023,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in a recent report. “The major drop was in nonresidential construction investment, while purchases of imported machinery and equipment also slowed noticeably as the Mexican peso continued to weaken against the dollar. In addition, consumption was impacted by sluggish growth in remittances, high interest rates and flat employment. However, net exports boosted growth in 2024 after dragging it down the previous two years.”

Extremely Reliant Upon Exports
The other issue? Mexico is extremely reliant upon demand from the U.S., exporting $41.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the U.S.

In 2023, Mexico accounted for 16.3% of U.S. agricultural exports and 23.3% of U.S. agricultural imports.

By the numbers:

Mexico is the largest source of horticultural imports to the U.S., supplying 63% of vegetables and 47% of fruit and nuts in 2023.
The top agricultural exports from Mexico to the U.S. in 2024 included beer, tomatoes, tequila, avocados, strawberries, raspberries and peppers.

Mexico is the Biggest Customer of U.S. Ag Exports

The other important piece is Mexico is now the U.S.'s top ag export destination.

According to Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), Mexico is a huge destination for U.S. corn. More than 40% of U.S. corn exported last year went to Mexico. Not only does that mean the U.S. relies on Mexico, but Mexico is also reliant upon the U.S. do to the strong demand.

“That’s the other key piece here when we think about a Mexico situation, you know, will they retaliate on corn because it’s so important to the consumers in their country,” Swanson told Farm Journal during Commodity Classic this week. “And it’s such a big part of their diets and consumption. It’s a commodity that they consume way more of than what they produce. So they’re going to have to get it from somewhere.”

Bigger Picture
According to USDA’s Economic Research Service , between 1993 (the year before NAFTA’s implementation) and 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, while agricultural imports from Mexico grew at a rate of 9.7%.

“With the economic recovery in the United States and Mexico that followed the pandemic, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico increased at a CAGR of 15.7% between 2020 and 2023, and U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico grew at a CAGR of 11.3%,” the USDA report said. “In 2023, however, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous year, as the prices of major agricultural exports (such as corn and soybeans) declined.”

EXCLUSIVE: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 16:36:22 GMT

Time is running out for USDA to issue the nearly $10 billion of economic relief payments to farmers . Congress approved a 90-day window to release those payments, and in an exclusive interview with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Thursday morning, we asked when exactly those payments will be released. Rollins confirmed to Farm Journal that those payments will be released before the current deadline.

“Congress gave us until March 21, that is the ideal deadline,” Rollins said. “It looks like we’re going to be able to beat that, so it should be just around the corner.”

As USDA works to release those payments within the next few weeks, according to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.

Pro Farmer Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the only issue that could impact that timing is a possible government shutdown. If the government shuts down beginning March 15, and those payments haven’t been released yet, that could impact the March 21 deadline.

Wiesemeyer also reports based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year, which are:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

Payment Cap
Like other recent disaster programs, the payment limit for farmers will depend on how much of a farmer’s income is derived from agriculture. However, this program is based on average gross income rather than adjusted gross income (AGI).

The payment cap will be:

If < 75% of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $125,000
If 75% or more of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $250,000
USDA says standard FSA “actively engaged in farming” requirements apply

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

Update on Timing of $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu
Led by Rollins, USDA announced on Wednesday plans to invest up to $1 billion in new funding to combat impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and soaring egg prices.

“The important piece is not just this immediate short-term goal of getting the cost of eggs down and repopulating our layers and locking our barns down,” Rollins told Farm Journal on Thursday. “But much more importantly, perhaps, is figuring this out for the long term, so we’re not having the same conversation over and over and over again.”

The avian flu plan, which USDA rolled out on Wednesday, includes five major points:

Dedicate up to $500 million to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard” biosecurity measures. USDA has developed a successful pilot program, called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, to identify and implement more safety measures. USDA will pay up to 75% of the cost to address any identified biosecurity vulnerabilities at poultry farms.
Make up to $400 million of increased financial relief available to farmers whose flocks are affected by avian flu, and USDA will assist farmers in receiving faster approval to begin safe operations again after an outbreak.
USDA is exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for laying chickens. While vaccines aren’t a stand-alone solution, they will provide up to $100 million in research and development of vaccines and therapeutics, to improve their efficacy and efficiency. This should help reduce the need to depopulate flocks, which means killing chickens on a farm where there’s an outbreak. Note: USDA hasn’t yet authorized the use of a vaccine. Before making a determination, USDA will consult state leaders, poultry and dairy farmers, and public-health professionals. The agency will also work with trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns.
USDA will take other actions to lower the price of eggs. For starters, it will remove unnecessary regulatory burdens on egg producers where possible. This will include examining the best way to protect farmers from overly prescriptive state laws, such as California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens.
USDA will consider temporary import options to reduce egg costs in the short term. They will proceed with imports only if the eggs meet stringent U.S. safety standards and if they determine that doing so won’t jeopardize American farmers’ access to markets in the future.

As for the $500 million that will go toward beefing up biosecurity efforts, Rollins says that will happen immediately.

“The team is putting together right now the guardrails for that, but I think they’re almost finished, and that money should be moving out very quickly,” Rollins told Farm Journal. “That biosecurity money is based on a pilot program where 150 different egg laying farms were piloted on specific biosecurity measures. Of those 150, only one has seen the avian flu. Once they implemented, there’s a massive audit that USDA comes in. They help audit. We’re hiring a whole bunch of new folks to come on board to do that — and new epidemiologists to help us work through all of the science on this, and hopefully you see that immediately.”

Where is the $1 Billion Coming From?
At a time when the Trump administration is looking to save money, not spend, we asked Rollins where exactly is the $1 billion of funds going to be sourced.

“We’ve repurposed funds from other programs within USDA, so this is not spending new money,” Rollins said. “Clearly, we’re in an era where President Trump’s vision is to really streamline government, but this is not that. This is outside that lane. This is a really, really important issue. You know, it’s affecting every single American, not just our poultry producers. And so there’s short-term and long-term fixes here now.”

Some of that money, however, is coming from savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

“We are pulling it from multiple different pots. But yes, there’s no doubt that we’ve been able to find some serious savings in DOGE,” Rollins said. “We’ve canceled almost a thousand DEI trainings that were across USDA.... All of it adds up, and we’ve really pulled a lot of that money back. And now putting it where we think it really helps farmers and ranchers.”

What Will It Take for the Ag Economy to Recover

Rollins is set to give the keynote address at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Friday. Rollins told Farm Journal there are a lot of farmers hurting in this economy, saying “it’s one of the worst for that industry that we’ve seen in decades.”

Considering 64% of ag economists think the row crop sector of agriculture is in a recession , we asked Rollins what it will take for the ag economy to recover.

“There’s no doubt, to your point, a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of input down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” said Rollins.

Rollins says when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. And she says the growign trade deficit is something President Trump wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure that they could make some kind of a profit,” said Rollins. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation, the cost of energy has absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. So when you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. And we’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the president’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital, making sure that that the cost of inputs goes down. Hopefully with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. And I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change.”

During the the first Cabinet meeting in President Trump’s second-term, which was held Wednesday, President Trump floated 25% tariffs on the European Union.

“Obviously, tariffs always come up. I’m always saying, ‘let’s be very, very careful and intentional how we move here,’” Rollins said about the first Cabinet meeting. “The border came up, immigration deportations came up. So all the things that the ag community is concerned about that came up, course, I’m at the table. My job is to ensure that that our community’s voice is heard, but also to help effectuate the president’s vision. And we’re moving forward on all fronts.”

You can listen to the complete interview with Secretary Rollins below.

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Trump Sows Confusion on Tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Floats 25% Duty for EU Goods

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 21:25:22 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.

A White House official, however, said Trump’s previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending his review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the U.S. Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.

“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all ofthem but a lot of them.”

Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.

Canada’s Finance Ministry and Mexico’s Economy Ministry both declined to comment on Trump’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to “overall” tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4 deadline was still in effect.

“So the big transaction is April 2, but the fentanyl-related things, we’re working hard on the border,”
Lutnick said during the cabinet meeting. “At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that they’ve satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he’ll give them a pause, or he won’t.”

EU Tariff Rate

Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs that would match the import duty rates of other countries and offset their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff.

Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate for goods from the European Union, replied: “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25%, generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things.”

He said the EU is a “different case” from Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.

“They don’t accept our cars. They don’t accept, essentially our farm products,” Trump said, adding that the EU was formed “in order to screw the United States.”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, is in Washington and will meet U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, a spokesman said. She is not slated to meet with any Trump administration officials.

New U.S. Trade Representative Confirmed

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 56-43 to confirm Jamieson Greer as Trump’s new U.S. Trade Representative, putting a veteran of the Republican president’s first-term trade wars fully on the job.

Greer, who served as chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, won the support of five Democrats, including both senators from Michigan, the center of the U.S. auto industry.

Trade groups welcomed Greer’s confirmation, lauding his commitment to consulting with industry and standing up for U.S. businesses, farmers and workers. “We share Ambassador Greer’s desire for an active and pragmatic trade policy that creates

U.S. jobs and more resilient supply chains,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Greer told senators during his Senate confirmation hearing that he wanted to quickly renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to ensure China does not use it as a back door to the U.S. market to avoid other tariffs.

“Right out of the gate, I expect that we’ll be taking a second look at the USMCA,” Greer said.

Asked what changes he would like to see in the pact, Greer zeroed in on further tightening automotive content rules.

“I think we should look at the rule of origin for automobiles and aerospace and other things to look and see if we need to have any kind of restriction on content or value added from foreign countries of concern, or non-market economies,” he said, using language that U.S. trade officials often use to describe China.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by Bo Erickson and Ryan Jones in Washington, Brendan O’Boyle in Mexico City and Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dan Burns, David Gregorio and Paul Simao)

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 15:02:27 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

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