China

Chinese Pigs Fed New Menu as Beijing Weans Farmers Off U.S. Soy

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:07:18 GMT

At the edge of one of the many pig farms spread across the vast, unbroken floodplains of Taizhou, a two-hour drive northwest of Shanghai, a pair of square, four-metre pools of acrid-smelling ochre liquid hold the key to cutting costly soybean use in half.

The pools hold a swill of cheaper, locally sourced ingredients, which can include brans, pumpkin vines and wine lees. But it is fermented - like yogurt - so the proteins are already broken down and easy to digest, lessening the need for the higher-quality proteins in soy, 80% of which China imports.

For the farm’s owner, 47-year-old Gao Qinshan, the motivation is entirely monetary. Feed accounts for 70% of pig rearing costs, and soybean prices have jumped - squeezed by Beijing’s trade stand-off with Washington and compounded by war in the Middle East.

“Soybean prices have become so unstable,” Gao lamented.

With the industry already hobbled by oversupply and weak consumer demand, “pig farming has become unprofitable,” he said. “Everyone is thinking about how to cut costs.”

The grassroots fixation on overheads belies Beijing’s more strategic motivations: long-term food security and increased self-reliance.

The government sharply accelerated a drive to expand protein sources for livestock in March of last year, just as trade tensions ramped up early into President Donald Trump’s second term. Soybeans quickly became a key bargaining chip.

Reuters interviews with dozens of livestock and feed producers, state researchers and industry experts revealed Beijing is moving faster than previously thought to deploy new technologies and promote fermented feed.

It’s the agricultural equivalent of Beijing’s campaign to build domestic capabilities in microchips and artificial intelligence, catalyzed by Washington’s stringent controls on advanced technology exports to China.

In terms of agriculture, “the biggest national policy goal right now is soymeal reduction,” said Fu Zhenzhen, a feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants.

“The most direct reason for that is the trade war with the United States,” she said. “Fermentation is essential.”

Motivating Farmers to Switch

China is the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans, and imported $52.7 billion of the oilseed in 2024, $12 billion of which came from the U.S., the latest figures from the World Bank show.

Last year, inbound shipments increased 6.5% from 2024 to a record 111.8 million metric tons, according to Chinese customs data.

Fermented feed currently accounts for 8% of industrial feed in China, up from 3% in 2022, and is likely to hit 15% by 2030, industry experts predict. That could help China cut soybean imports by up to 6.3% from last year’s levels, according to Reuters calculations.

Pig farmers are just one piece of Beijing’s food security puzzle, albeit an important one, with pork a traditional staple of the Chinese diet - China is home to half the world’s pigs - and swine more dependent on soymeal than poultry or cattle.

Farms like Gao’s raise a third of livestock in China, the world’s biggest meat producer.

However, the switch to fermented feed requires a heavy commitment, often entailing the overhaul of entire feeding systems. Gao struggled initially, with feed growing mold and going to waste. Many farmers simply give up.

Beijing, characteristically, is leaving nothing to chance, offering incentives to every sector of the industry, and every link in the supply chain.

Targeting the Entire Supply Chain

China’s Muyuan Foods, the world’s biggest pig farmer, has reduced soymeal in its feed from 10% six years ago to 7.3% now using synthetic amino acids produced from fermented corn starch, Zhang Meng, director of the company’s feed division, told Reuters.

Agribusiness giant New Hope Liuhe has developed soymeal-free chicken and duck feeds by fermenting duckweed and other cheap protein sources, according to people familiar with the matter. New Hope did not reply to a Reuters request for comment.

Working with the government, China’s two biggest dairy producers, Yili and Mengniu, have cut the amount of soymeal in cattle feed by 20%, according to sources at the state-backed National Center of Technology Innovation for Dairy. Yili declined to comment, and Mengniu did not reply to a request for comment.

All of the figures on soymeal reduction are being reported for the first time.

China has also attracted foreign investment, with Dutch-based trading house Louis Dreyfus planning to build its first fermented feed production line in the northern port city of Tianjin.

“China is standing at the forefront of fermentation technology,” said Shambhu Nath Jha, principal consultant at Fact.MR.

The U.S.-headquartered consultancy estimates that the value of China’s fermented feed market vaulted to $6 billion last year, catching up fast on Europe’s leading but more mature market, worth $7 billion. The U.S. market, by contrast, is worth just $2.5 billion, because soybeans and corn are more readily available.

For poultry, China’s 25% fermented feed adoption rate already surpasses Europe’s 20%, according to Fact.MR.

Costs, Complexity and Taste

Beijing has momentum on its side: Pork prices at 16-year lows make any cost-reduction scheme an easy sell.

Where the fermentation pitch runs into problems is the lack of a standardized approach, analysts said.

Some argue that pigs mature more slowly if farmers simply ferment whatever food sources are available, and can be weaker to disease.

The ultimate test may be taste.

“There is so much demand from consumers for better quality meat, but the industry is just focused on reducing costs and doing what the government wants,” said Ian Lahiffe, an agriculture consultant in Beijing.

“There are a lot of benefits to feeding soybeans,” he said. “They need to think about how to avoid sacrificing animal health and meat flavor.”

(Reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Tony Munroe and Kevin Buckland)

Feed Cost Surge from Iran War Deepens Pain for China's Pig Farmers

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:34:17 GMT

Rising grain prices fueled by the Iran war are lifting animal feed costs in China, the world’s biggest pig market, piling pressure on producers already hit by weak demand and hog prices at 16-year lows.

Since the start of the war on February 28, futures for soymeal and corn - two key feed ingredients - have climbed to multi-month highs on the Dalian exchange, driven in part by the oil price rally, higher freight rates and rising fertilizer costs, two analysts said.

In March, spot prices for soymeal and corn in China have risen by over 200 yuan per ton and around 100 yuan per ton - 7% and 4% respectively - increasing real-time feed costs.

Prices for other inputs, including lysine and methionine - essential amino acids - as well as fishmeal and vitamins A and E have risen between 6% and 77% this month due to the war, according to Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.

“Prices for most raw materials used in animal feed have experienced a significant increase in March, partly driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” said Lin Guofa, senior analyst at consultancy Bric Agriculture Group.

Overcapacity and Weak Demand

Chinese hog producers, who account for half of the world’s pigs, are grappling with higher costs even as they contend with falling pork prices due to overcapacity and weak demand.

China’s most-active hog futures contract DLHcv1 fell to a contract low of 9,980 yuan ($1,448.16) per ton on Monday. Cash prices tumbled to 9.69 yuan per kg - the lowest in 16 years, according to JCI.

“Raising a hog that weighs about 60-62.5 kg currently costs 12.2-12.5 yuan per kg. This means farmers lose 280-350 yuan for each pig they sell,” said Lin.

Plunging Hog Prices, Negative Margins

Smaller farmers, who account for less than 30% of China’s pig production, risk being pushed out of business as they are especially vulnerable to price swings, analysts said.

“For small farmers now, either you sell your pigs cheap or you grit your teeth and bear it, get through this price drop, and then wait for the pig price to rebound,” said Fu Zhenzhen, feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants.

Li, a 600-head pig farmer in northern Hebei province, said he has been losing money since last year.

“We are being roasted by fire now. Pork prices are so low, but feed costs have jumped sharply in March,” Li said.

Since last year, Chinese authorities have intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity, urging breeders to cut sow numbers and manage slaughter rates, while recently buying frozen pork for state reserves to stabilize prices.

China’s sow herd totaled 39.61 million head at the end of December, remaining above the normal holding level of 39 million.

“Going forward, pork prices will mainly depend on how aggressively companies trim their herds,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

($1 = 6.8915 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Tony Munroe and Shri Navaratnam)

China's Pork Production Jumps 7% in Q4 Amid Slaughter Rush

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 14:40:53 GMT

China’s pork production rose 7% in the last quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday, marking the highest fourth-quarter output since 2018, as hog producers accelerated slaughtering to reduce the herd size.

Output during October-December in the world’s largest pork producer surged to 15.7 million metric tons, a Reuters calculation based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

“Overall, the data aligns with expectations. In the fourth quarter, influenced by policy guidance and the typical rush to sell pigs as prices drop, slaughtering accelerated, resulting in higher output,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

China slaughtered 719.73 million hogs in 2025, up 2.4% from a year earlier, the NBS data showed.

Pork production in 2025 rose 4.1% to 59.38 million tons.

Cash hog prices were 12.6 yuan ($1.81) per kg on Monday, down from 15.4 yuan per kg during the same period last year, according to consultancy MySteel data.

China’s massive hog sector continues to struggle with overcapacity amid weak consumer demand.

Authorities have stepped up efforts to manage overcapacity, urging major firms to reduce breeding sows, keep hog weight to around 120 kg, and tightened credit and subsidies.

“For 2026, prices are expected to rebound at the end of the second quarter. While a modest increase has been seen, it’s likely driven by pre-holiday stockpiling,” said Pan.

“After the Spring Festival, prices may dip briefly, but a more significant rebound is anticipated by late second quarter or early third quarter, driven by reduced sow numbers and lower pork production,” she added.

China’s pig herd size at the end of December was up 0.5% from the previous year at429.67 million head, the NBS data showed.

($1 = 6.9638 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Tom Hogue and Christian Schmollinger)

Economists Forecast Farm Economy to Stabilize, But High Costs and Policy Uncertainty Block a 2026 Rebound

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:26:39 GMT

As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.

The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.

“There’s cautious optimism,” the economists say, “but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.”

Those themes mirror the perspective of Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. In a recent interview, Meyer connected the dots between narrow margins, policy responses and what might actually move the dial for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026.

Stabilizing, Not Recovering

December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength.

54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago.
Compared with a year ago:
- 42% say conditions are worse
- 33% say they are better
Looking ahead 12 months:
- 46% expect conditions unchanged
- 38% expect improvement
- 15% expect conditions to worsen

“Momentum has improved since mid-2025,” Meyer notes, “but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses.”

He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments , it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.

“Purdue had a good survey about a month ago, where they looked at what were these payments going to go to, and research would show that a lot of these payments go into long-term assets, and so land tractors, but I think over 60% of producers right now are in such a tight cash crunch that you’re going to see a lot of these payments go into that short-term debt,” Gardner says.

Consolidation a Growing Threat

Economists are nearly unanimous that the crop sector remains under extreme financial stress. 83 percent say row crops are currently in a recession. That isn’t about production declines — acres and yields haven’t collapsed — but about persistently weak profitability.

“Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops,” one economist wrote in the survey.

Another said: “Margins remain below full costs of production for many producers.”

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Meyer traces that back to how abruptly agriculture moved from the high prices of 2021 and 2022 into today’s tighter margins.

“We moved very quickly from a very high price environment and good profitability in 2022 to very tight margins,” he says. “That usually happens coming off price peaks, but this time it happened really rapidly.”

A minority of survey respondents argued farms are “treading water,” supported by strong land values and government aid rather than eroding further, which Meyer acknowledged aligns with how risk and safety nets have interacted this year.

But when you look at how the current stress in the farm economy could impact consolidation, the ag economists say it’s the economic pressure combined with demographic trends causing the acceleration. In fact, 92% of them say consolidation is underway and unavoidable.

“Markets go to the lowest-cost producers,” one economist wrote. “That sorting is consolidation on the production side.”

Aging producers exiting and rent-heavy operations under pressure only add fuel to that trend, with one economist saying: “Consolidation happens because producers have to exit, not because they want to.

What’s Driving the Farm Economy Right Now

When economists were asked to identify the two most important factors shaping agriculture’s economic health today, their responses clustered around a familiar, but increasingly sharp, divide: strong demand in livestock and the protein sector versus persistent oversupply and cost pressure in crops, all layered with trade and policy uncertainty.

Several economists pointed to continued strength in beef demand, both domestically and through export channels, as a key stabilizing force. While the dairy sector is an area that shows signs of weakness for 2026.

“Livestock revenues are a bright spot,” one respondent noted, underscoring why the livestock sector continues to outperform crops financially.

Looking to 2026, economists overwhelmingly point to input costs, not interest rates, as the biggest barrier to profitability. Nearly 70% cited input prices as the largest challenge as well, far ahead of trade concerns or capital availability.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

“We have too much supply and not enough demand for row crops,” one economist wrote.

Another said: “Input costs are still too high.”

Trade remains a central wild card, especially relationships with China and uncertainty around global supply. Several respondents cited trade disputes and agreements as critical factors, along with questions about the size of South American crops and how that could shape global competition in the months ahead.

Policy uncertainty was also featured prominently, with economists pointing to domestic biofuels policy, government payments and broader market signals as factors influencing both short-term cash flow and longer-term demand growth.

Overall, economists say the ag economy is being pulled in opposite directions: strong livestock demand providing support, while crops struggle under high costs, oversupply and unresolved trade and policy questions — a dynamic that helps explain why the broader farm economy feels stable, but far from healthy, as 2026 approaches.

Livestock: A Continued Bright Spot

Livestock continues to stand out as the most financially healthy segment of the ag economy. Every economist surveyed rated beef as above average or excellent, supported by strong domestic demand and tight supplies. Dairy and pork were viewed as stable to moderately strong.

That success creates a stark contrast with row crops, where corn and cotton were cited by 38% each as the commodities most at risk financially in 2026.

What Could Move Crop Prices in the Next Six Months

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, economists say crop prices will hinge less on domestic fundamentals and more on global supply, trade flows and policy clarity.

Across responses, South America emerged as the dominant influence, with economists repeatedly citing Brazilian weather, the size of the South American harvest and how those supplies compete with U.S. exports. Several noted that clarity around South American production will be critical in setting price direction for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Trade, particularly with China, remains another key swing factor. Economists emphasized not just the announcement of trade agreements, but whether purchases translate into actual shipments.

“China purchases of U.S. crops, but also if and when actual shipments occur,” one respondent noted, adding that details within any trade deal, including purchase commitments, will matter just as much as headlines.

Domestic factors still play a role, but economists see them as secondary in the near term. Input prices, early U.S. planting conditions and assumptions about 2026 acreage were all cited as important — especially as markets begin to trade expectations for next year’s crop mix.

Policy uncertainty also hangs over the outlook. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around trade policy, biofuels policy and broader economic conditions as variables that could amplify or mute price moves.

Economists say crop prices over the next six months are likely to be driven by how global supply unfolds, whether export demand materializes and how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved, rather than by any single domestic production shock.

Biofuels Policy: A Potential Turning Point?

One of the clearest themes Meyer highlights as a possible game changer for demand, and ultimately prices, is biofuels policy.

For economists, policy levers like year-round E15, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, 45Z investment tax credits and how small refinery exemptions are handled could meaningfully influence demand for corn and soybeans in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s one of the places where policymakers actually have levers to help with tight margins in the row crop sector,” Meyer says.

He emphasizes that final rules on RFS volumes and how biobased credits are implemented could impact feedstock demand.

“For the next couple of crop seasons, RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) and how EPA reallocates small refinery exemptions are big factors,” Meyer says. “Should we raise the RVO to soak up that pool like a sponge? Should imported feedstocks get full 45Z credit? Those decisions could move demand.”

On year-round E15, a long-sought policy priority for corn growers, Meyer is cautiously optimistic.

“I do think it matters,” he says. “Maybe it’s not a huge swing this year, but offering certainty and building demand over multiple seasons is supportive. Other countries like Brazil are ramping up their biofuels production too, so this isn’t happening in a vacuum.”

Policy Uncertainty Still Looms

Economists also flagged top priorities for 2026 policy action:

Year-round E15 (row crops)
Trade policy clarity (row crops & livestock)
Labor reform and regulatory issues (livestock)

They also highlighted under-covered risks, which include pressure on land rents and values, labor shortages, biofuels policy details (such as 45Z credits) and slower population growth affecting long-term demand.

What Could Move Livestock and Dairy Prices in the Next Six Months

When economists look ahead to livestock and dairy markets in early 2026, they see a mix of strong demand signals, supply-side risks and policy uncertainty shaping price direction.

Consumer demand remains the cornerstone of the outlook, particularly for beef. Several economists pointed to continued buying interest from U.S. consumers as the primary support for cattle prices, even as affordability pressures rise. At the same time, some warned that a more “K-shaped” economy could begin to shift demand, pulling some consumers away from beef and toward pork.

Supply dynamics and herd trends are another major focus. Economists cited herd size, potential herd expansion and the availability of feeder cattle as critical variables. The expected resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico was highlighted as a key factor that could influence cattle supplies and pricing, depending on timing and volume.

Animal health risks also remain on the radar. Issues such as avian influenza, screwworm and other disease threats were mentioned as potential disruptors that could quickly alter supply conditions in both livestock and dairy markets.

Policy and trade uncertainty continues to hover over the sector. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around tariffs, restrictions on live animal trade with Mexico and the next steps under the USMCA as factors that could impact both imports and exports. Political uncertainty more broadly was also cited as a potential source of market volatility.

For dairy, economists noted that beef-on-dairy dynamics are likely to continue weighing on milk prices by increasing beef supplies while complicating dairy herd decisions.

Taken together, economists say livestock and dairy prices over the next six months will be driven by a delicate balance between strong consumer demand, evolving supply conditions and unresolved trade and policy questions, with any shift in one of those areas capable of moving markets quickly.

Acreage Expectations: Stress, Not Shock

Despite margin pressure, economists do not expect dramatic acreage pullbacks in 2026. Most expect:

Corn: 93 to 95 million acres
Soybeans: 84 to 86 million acres
Wheat: 44 to 45 million acres
Cotton: 9 to 10 million acres

Corn acreage expectations have edged lower since November, as economists backed away from another year above 95 million acres. At the same time, soybean acreage expectations have firmed, with 75% now targeting 84 to 86 million acres, suggesting stronger relative economics for beans.

“Export demand has helped keep corn acres supported,” Meyer says. “The question is whether that demand holds and whether policy supports it.”

As for acreage, the major impact on prices would be a large acreage reduction, which is unlikely.

“That’s what it comes down to, too. What I’ve been thinking about is what else can you use land for? And you’ve got the pushback on urban sprawl, you’ve got pushback on other uses for ag land. But right now, the simple fact is we’ve got way too much production. Without that slowing, or a drastic increase in demand, I don’t see prices improving to very lucrative levels,” Gardner says.

Overall, The Ag Economy Is a Grind, Not a Rebound

When you look at all the results from the December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists paint a picture of an industry that has stopped getting worse, but has not yet found a path to durable profitability.

Crops remain mired in margin compression; livestock continues to outperform but remains sensitive to policy decisions. Government aid is buying time but not addressing structural challenges, but it’s policy outcomes, especially around biofuels, trade and E15, that could be decisive in shaping 2026 outcomes.

For now, the farm economy has found a floor. The tougher question, economists say, is whether policy can help lift it, or if it will continue to grind forward without a genuine rebound.

Related News: As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Why Can't Soybeans Bottom With China Purchases? Are They Buying Corn?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:39:25 GMT

Corn and wheat ended higher Tuesday with soybeans lower. Livestock futures saw a down day in cattle but higher in hogs.

Corn Rallies on China Buying?
Corn futures were up for a second day after seeing technical buying and with some talk of China buying corn out of the Pacific Northwest. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies. However, he is not seeing evidence of those purchases and doubts China needs corn. “I don’t know why China would buy U.S. corn. It wasn’t part of the agreement, which is yet to be signed. So unless it was politically motivated, I would think China would want to go to Brazil. They have this new relationship with Brazil. When it comes to their corn, I think they want to protect their relationships with Brazil,” he says.

He admits port values in the PNW did kind of spike and so did basis. However, he doesn’t think that necessarily means China. “It could be one of our normal customers, like Japan, for example,” he says.

Corn Sees Short Covering
So Seifried thinks the bounce was technically inspired buying after the March contract bounced off the 100-day moving average support area on Wednesday. However, corn has been trading sideways between that support and overhead resistance up at the 200-day moving average. He says if corn could finally close above that level for more than a day, it could take out the $4.50 area and stage a bit of a breakout.

“We saved a breakdown below the neckline of what could potentially be a head and shoulders topping formation in corn. Now, if we were able to get up and over that 200-day moving average for the fourth time, close above it and then not break down the very next day like we have the previous three times. We could potentially break out to the upside and really negate this potential head and shoulders formation,” Seifried explains.

Corn Needs a Catalyst
However, corn will need a catalyst to get above that chart resistance because farmer selling picks up when corn gets to the top side of the trading range. The catalyst could come in the January WASDE if USDA would lower yield. It would take a sizable cut to get the bulls excited and get below 2 billion bu. carryout he says. “I do think if you cut two or three bushel an acre off of corn, we’ll get below a 2 billion bu. carryover, but I don’t know about significantly below 2 billion bushel because it will be offset by USDA lowering feed and residual,” he explains.

Wheat Follows Corn
Wheat futures got spillover support from the corn market but Seifried says soft red winter wheat also saw technical buying to relieve its oversold condition. “Chicago wheat hit new contract lows Tuesday and Wednesday so it was due for a correction,” he says. However, wheat will have a tough time rallying due to the big global production. “USDA has had to continue to raise the world production number. I think we’re, what, 30 MMT off of the original number they had a few months ago,” he states. China canceling two cargoes of white wheat from the U.S. was also bearish for the market. “Anytime China cancels anything, that really does not help the market psychology.”

Why Do Soybeans Continue Lower Despite China Purchases?
The soybean market continues to slide despite the confirmation of export sales and China soybean purchases. USDA reported another 4.2 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Thursday morning and adds to the string of recent purchases that have included China. Seifried says however, that business has not been enough to support the market because it’s half the soybean purchases China made last year.

“The problem is, is that I think the markets realized that 12 million metric tons probably isn’t enough to get us to the USDA full marketing year expectations for our exports, and that they’ll probably have to cut exports again if China doesn’t buy above and beyond that 12 million metric tons. And while the buying is good, the pace does not suggest necessarily that they’re going to outperform on that one,” he explains.

Seifried says South American weather is also favorable and soybean prices in Brazil are cheaper than the U.S. and so there’s no reason for China or any other countries to buy soybeans if it isn’t politically motivated.

Funds also got near record long in mid-November while the government was shut down and they are exiting those positions. “The analyst guesses were, were so far off they weren’t even half of what the funds actually accumulated as far as their long position. And the funds have just simply lost interest in the story. And so they’re getting out of that position,” he adds.

Soybeans Make New Lows for the Move
Soybean futures made new lows for the move on additional technical selling and fund liquidation. Seifried says the market confirmed the head and shoulders top, fell to fill the chart gap areas and then closed below that level which is bearish. Funds got near record long in soybeans in mid-November and then started to bail on those positions and take profits and they are still liquidating.

Profit Taking in Cattle
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day with the market consolidating after several attempts to take out chart resistance areas. Seifried says in live cattle the market has been capped by the 100-day moving average. So, cattle are at a pivotal point and need to fill gap areas on the chart to keep moving higher.

“I mean, the good news there is that both cattle and feeders did close well off their lows. So, you know, we didn’t completely fall apart after running into the one hundred day moving average, major moving average pretty much five days in a row. Not being able to to to break through it and break out to the upside and fill the gap above us. The market finally just gave in a bit.” he says.

Cash trade will also be a key. Thursday some light trade developed in the North at mostly $358 dressed, up $4, with a range of $355 to $363 and live sales prices at $228.

Lean Hogs Finish Higher
Lean hog futures were higher on short covering and fund buying after a lower day on Wednesday. Seifried says the hog market is also getting support from a possible seasonal bottom in cash and cutouts.

China Lowers EU Pork Tariffs in Final Ruling After 18-Month Probe

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 14:35:55 GMT

China on Tuesday sharply reduced tariffs on European Union pork imports worth over $2 billion in the final ruling of an anti-dumping investigation seen as a response to the bloc’s duties on Chinese electric vehicles.

Some from the European pork industry voiced relief at the decision though they said the tariffs would still hurt. The European Commission expressed concern, pledging to defend exporters.

China will impose tariffs of between 4.9% and 19.8% on pork imports from the bloc for a five-year period starting on Wednesday, well below the 15.6%-62.4% imposed in a preliminary decision in September, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

Importers will receive a refund on the difference between the rates paid since September.

The decision is a partial reprieve for European producers who depend heavily on the Chinese market, especially for the offal - such as pig ears and feet - rarely eaten elsewhere.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO ASSESS WTO COMPLIANCE
China’s anti-dumping investigation began in June of last year and has affected major pork exporters such as Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark.

China imported $4.8 billion worth of pork, including offal, in 2024 - over half of it from the EU, with Spain leading the bloc in exports by volume.

China accounted for 17.6% of EU pork exports last year, the second highest behind the UK, which imported a 29.7% share, according to Spanish government data.

In a statement on Tuesday, the European Commission described China’s investigation as “based on questionable allegations and insufficient evidence”.

It vowed to defend EU farmers and exporters against what it called Beijing’s “abusive use of trade defence instruments” and said it was “carefully assessing all the information available against compliance with WTO rules”.

SIGN OF CONSTRUCTIVE NEGOTIATIONS
China’s commerce ministry did not say why it chose to lower rates, though China said last week talks had resumed with the bloc over electric vehicle tariffs. French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish King Felipe have both visited Beijing in the last two months.

Spanish regional leaders met China’s ambassador in recent weeks to ask for lower tariffs, citing Spain’s openness to Beijing’s investment in the automotive sector, a Spanish regional government source told Reuters.

“This outcome reflects 18 months of concerted efforts to find a negotiated solution to this issue and a number of other trade disputes between China and the EU,” said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

China also has an anti-subsidy investigation into European Union dairy exports that is due to report next February and has already imposed tariffs on EU brandy.

MIXED FEELINGS FOR EUROPEAN PRODUCERS
Previously, major exporters to China such as the EU and Brazil were subject to “most-favoured nation” tariffs of around 12% for many pork products. The anti-dumping duties come on top of these. U.S. pork is subject to substantially higher tariffs.

Most Spanish firms are now subject to a relatively moderate tariff of 9.8%. Spain’s Litera Meat got the lowest rate, at only 4.9%.

Giuseppe Aloisio, head of Spanish industry group Anice, said he expected talks to continue, as the duties would hurt company margins.

“China is applying tariffs on a company-by-company basis, but in doing so, it’s dividing European economic policy and treating us as individual countries,” said Nemesio Sanchez, an international trade consultant specialising in Iberico pork.

In France, Anne Richard, director of pork industry association Inaporc, said: “There’s a sense of relief as all our abattoirs that export have been recognised as cooperating and have been granted a rate of 9.8%.”

“Having said that, we can’t exactly rejoice at the prospect of a tax.”

CHINA’S STRUGGLING PIG SECTOR
Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector is grappling with a supply glut amid weak consumer demand. Chinese pork prices have been falling throughout 2025 and are expected to continue their decline.

Even at the lower rate, the duties could slightly ease food price deflation by raising imported pork prices, Pay said.

“High-end markets for imported speciality pork products may weather these tariff rates, but they will eat away at more price-sensitive segments. That will benefit Chinese pig farming companies which have reckoned with low prices for pork all year,” she added.

(Reporting by Daphne Zhang, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris, Emma Pinedo, David Latona and Corina Pons in Madrid, Soren Sirich Jeppesen in Copenhagen, Philip Blenkinsop in Brussels; Editing by Tom Hogue, Aidan Lewis)

Is China a National Security Threat to U.S. Agriculture?

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:28:15 GMT

It’s been more than a decade since China made very public, very large investments in its future to feed its own people and gain greater control over international agribusiness.

In 2013, WH Group (then known as Shuanghui International) purchased Smithfield Foods for $4.7 billion, which was a U.S. company with 25 U.S. plants, 460 farms, and contracts with 2,100 producers in 12 states. A year later in back-to-back months, COFCO (China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation) bought two major agricultural trading companies: Noble Agri and Nidera. Then in 2017, ChemChina acquired Swiss-based Syngenta for $46 billion.

These acquisitions highlight the production and power China has amassed, and it’s being called into question by policy thinktank America First Policy Institute (AFPI).

“We know that many of these state-owned enterprises have an obligation to the CCP, and that is to report in and turn in all of the intellectual property they collect around the world or trade secrets and turn it in the Chinese Communist Party, giving them an edge and their ability to offshore a lot of our production from the United States,” says Ambassador Kip Tom, Indiana farmer and AFPI expert.

In a recent report, AFPI spotlighted the following vulnerabilities for U.S. farmers and consumers:

Smithfield controls 23% of U.S. pork processing
The U.S. market accounts for 23% of The Syngenta Group’s revenues
DJI drones are used by U.S. farmers to collect field data

One policy recommendation from AFPI is for Syngenta and Smithfield Foods to “divest to a domestic company or, at a minimum, a company not principally managed by an adversary of the United States.”

“Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party pose a threat to American farmers and U.S. food security,” says Congressman John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. “They’re engaged in economic aggression against the United States. We must protect our farms, feed mills, processing plants, and slaughterhouses. The CCP strategy is two-fold, undermine U.S. food security while siege-proofing their own.”

The full report is available here.

Ambassador Tom says in addition to direct or majority ownership by the CCP, global supply chains have evolved over recent decades resulting in U.S. farmers being more susceptible to negative impacts.

“We’re going to need to do everything we can do in our regulatory regime to make sure we can bring back these supply chains,” Tom says. “With the amount of sourcing that we’ve done in chemistries around the world, our fertilizer production, computer chips that run our tractors, everything, we are very vulnerable.”

Another aspect of Chinese ownership that has come into focus is foreign owned land in the U.S. The most recent reports peg a minimum of 35 million acres of farmland (3.4% of all U.S. ag land) is foreign owned, with Chinese companies owning around 350,000 acres. Of that, Brazos Highland owns 102,345 acres, and Smithfield owns 97,975 acres. The topic garnered attention at the state level with more than a handful of states passing legislation limiting foreign farmland ownership.

“Farmland is critical in the United States,” Tom says. “We know that the Fufang Group tried to place a [corn milling] plant up near Grand Forks, North Dakota, near an Air Force base, that was a strategic problem. That same group came to Indiana, and we stood up and said the same thing, ‘no, this shouldn’t be allowed.’ So it comes back to the states to get involved and make sure we put the measures in place to not allow this to happen.”

AFPI applies a skeptical eye on DJI drones, a Chinese company currently the largest manufacturer of drones worldwide.

“I would be very supportive, and I hope many of us farmers would be, to see the DJI drones go away. We should never underestimate the Chinese ability to use any information that they gather from the United States,” Tom says. “But we need to make sure that we shore up the production of drones here in the United States with American parts and information that’s processed here in the United States.”

In addition to their agribusiness investments, China has ramped up its public-funded research . Since 2008, China has outspent the U.S. in comparable public sector spending for agricultural research, and furthermore, since 2019, China has spent twice as much, or double, as the U.S.

“This is all part of the BRICS initiative, Brazil, Russia, India, and China. And we know that actually the Brazil has fast forward their agriculture development in their nation,” Tom says. “We know that now they are leading suppliers and a lot of the commodities that are produced in the world today, whether it’s corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, hogs, and they’re getting into the biofuels. Because of the theft of some of these intellectual property products that we had here in the United States, namely genetics, corn genetics, we know that China in a few years here will probably be self -sufficient on corn.”

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:31 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:26 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Ag Economists Warn of Lingering Farm Economic Strain: ’Not the 1980s, But Close’

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 15:48:45 GMT

The October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor paints a tough picture for U.S. farmers heading into 2026: weak trade demand, stubbornly high input costs and continued consolidation across agriculture. While experts say today’s challenges don’t match the full-blown crisis of the 1980s, most agree the current downturn is dragging on with few signs of a quick turnaround.

“High input costs and the inability of domestic soybean crush growth to offset lost Chinese demand” continue to weigh heavily on profitability, one economist explains.

Another adds: “The lack of trade opportunities, and high input costs, are doing the most damage right now.”

A third economist sums it up more bluntly: “Margins are collapsing, and optimism is evaporating fast.”

By the numbers, here are highlights from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

(Lori Hayes )

Conditions Expected to Continue or Worsen Into 2026

One of the major themes in the latest survey is the fact negative margins could be a theme for row crop agriculture for the foreseeable future.

Nearly 60% (59%) of economists say the farm economy is worse off than a month ago, and almost 90% believe it’s weaker than last year. 76% expect the situation to persist or even worsen through 2026, while only a quarter expect any improvement in the next 12 months. As one economist puts it: “It’s not a collapse, but it’s a grind.”