Cheese

Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 22:17:17 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

Pork is the Winner for Easter Dinner

Thu, 06 Apr 2023 14:00:16 GMT

Pork will be at the center of the plate for many, including our family, this Easter Sunday. Among the major proteins, Material Plus reports consumers are most likely to consume pork at Easter.

Smoked ham sales during Easter have been on the climb each of the last three years with sales valuing $197.1 million in 2022, according to IRI data. Additionally, data shows consumers spend more overall during Easter when ham is in their cart and consumers typically choose to shop in the store for this holiday.

“Pork is the hero of that dinner occasion at home with family and friends,” says Neal Hull, director of domestic market development at the National Pork Board. “It’s exciting to see that ham continues to grow.”

Ham is always the favored meat at our Easter dinner. We love serving it with a Shike tradition – Grandma Doc’s Mustard Ring (see below).

During an AgriTalk segment with Chip Flory, I was quick to point out that I know it’s a little weird. Mustard ring is like a creamy, solid Jell-O that melts like butter when you put a scoop on your ham. Admittedly, garnishes are typically not a draw for our kids, but they all love this family favorite.

I think it’s delicious, but more importantly, I love that it causes us to pause and think about our family members who prepared this for so many years for us that are no longer with us. It’s one way we can keep those memories and stories alive with our children. They may not have been able to know Grandma Doc, but they get to enjoy the memories.

Flory puts a different twist on Easter dinner. His choice for the center of the plate is smoked pork loin.

“I am responsible for smoking the pork loin that we have on Easter. We made that change a couple of years ago. Before that it was ham. But with everybody’s schedules like they are and trying to get to multiple celebrations in a day, we just decided let’s make this as portable and as convenient for everybody, so that when we do get together, we can eat now or we can eat later,” Flory says. “I know ham works in that way, too.”

An added treat is what Flory’s family uses to complement the smoked pork loin.

“We do red cabbage – sweet and sour red cabbage – on the side,” he says. “It’s one of those Flory traditions that actually started with my grandmother on the Ingwersen side. It’s become our tradition now. My sister-in-law, Julie Flory, has taken over the responsibility of having this at our family gatherings. That combination of smoked pork loin with that sweet and sour red cabbage on the side, it’s an unbelievable combination.”

Agritalk Producer Joe Stachler pointed out that one of the best sides to any Easter dinner are classic deviled eggs (see below). According to USDA’s latest Egg Markets Overview, retail grocery promotional activity featuring shell eggs for the holiday are beginning to appear in store ads but the extent is more subdued than in recent Easters – giving the traditional Easter egg hunt a whole new meaning for consumers this season.

“Following Easter, there are fewer opportunities to stimulate consumer shell egg purchasing which may allow prices to retreat to more shopper-friendly levels,” the report notes, so it may be a good time to stock back up.

We both agreed that the second-best part of Easter dinner are the leftovers. Both ham and pork loin offer incredible opportunities to enjoy the main dish again in a new way.

Hull says he likes to chop up ham leftovers to use in omelets the next day – that may be a use some people don’t think about.

Check out my colleague and friend Karen Bohnert’s amazing Ham, Cheese and Potato Casserole below. It’s simple and an easy way to make leftovers more interesting.

No matter what you feature at the center of your plate this Easter season, may the day be filled with opportunities for you to enjoy time focusing on what matters most with your loved ones.

Here are some recipes to consider adding to the mix:

Grandma Doc’s Mustard Ring

Recommended by Jennifer Shike, Editor of Farm Journal’s PORK

Ingredients:
4 well beaten eggs
¾ cup sugar
¼ tsp. salt
2 tbsp. dry mustard
2/3 cup cider vinegar
1/3 cup water
1 envelope plain gelatin
2 tbsp. cold water
½ cup whipping cream

Directions:
1. Combine beaten eggs, sugar, salt, mustard, vinegar and 1/3 cup water in top of double boiler.
2. Dissolve gelatin in the 2 T. cold water, add to egg mixture and cook over hot water until thick and creamy, stirring constantly.
3. Cool.
4. Whip cream and fold into cooled mixture and pour into well-oiled ring (or I just put it in a glass dish).
5. Refrigerate until firm.

Source: Shike Family Cookbook

Sweet and Sour Red Cabbage

Recommended by Chip Flory, AgriTalk host

Ingredients:
1 head red cabbage, sliced
1 large white onion, sliced
1 tsp. salt
8 slices bacon
1/4 cup flour
1/4 cup vinegar
1/2 cup brown sugar

Directions:
1. Cook cabbage and onions until tender with 1 tsp. salt.
2. Drain and save juice.
3. Cook 8 slices of bacon, save the grease.
4. Mix flour, vinegar and brown sugar. Thicken with bacon grease and 3/4 c. cabbage juice.
5. Mix altogether with cabbage and onion and bacon.
6. Serve hot.

Source: The Flory Family

Classic Deviled Eggs

Recommended by Joe Stachler, Radio Producer at Farm Journal

Ingredients:
6 eggs
¼ cup mayonnaise
1 tsp. white vinegar
1 tsp. yellow mustard
1/8 tsp. salt
Freshly ground black pepper
Smoked Spanish Paprika, for garnish

Directions:
1. Place eggs in a single layer in a saucepan and cover with enough water that there’s 1 1/2 inches of water above the eggs. Heat on high until water begins to boil, then cover, turn the heat to low, and cook for 1 minute. Remove from heat and leave covered for 14 minutes, then rinse under cold water continuously for 1 minute.
2. Crack egg shells and carefully peel under cool running water. Gently dry with paper towels. Slice the eggs in half lengthwise, removing yolks to a medium bowl, and placing the whites on a serving platter. Mash the yolks into a fine crumble using a fork. Add mayonnaise, vinegar, mustard, salt, and pepper, and mix well.
3. Evenly disperse heaping teaspoons of the yolk mixture into the egg whites. Sprinkle with paprika and serve.

Source: Food Network

Ham, Cheese and Potato Casserole

Recommended by Karen Bohnert, Editor of Dairy Herd Management and MILK

Ingredients:
3-4 cups chopped, cooked ham
5 potatoes, cooked and cut up into bite size
Cheese sauce

Directions:
1. Make cheese sauce.
Melt 3 tsp. flour and 3 tsp. butter and once the rue is made, slowly add 1 ½ c. of milk. Let it thicken up, stirring occasionally. Add 2 cups of shredded cheese of your liking (I personally like Cheddar).
2. Pour mixture over ham/potatoes.
3. Cover and bake at 350 degrees Fahrenheit for 45 minutes.

Source: Karen Bohnert

Food Inflation Makes Your Super Bowl Party Cost More

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 21:14:16 GMT

The economists at Wells Fargo, led by Dr. Michael Swanson, have some insights on how this year’s snacks for the Super Bowl are reflecting the trend of food inflation.

“Food inflation is a hot topic,” Swanson says noting that overall prices in the category are running at 6% higher than a year ago, whereas typically year-to-year food inflation is 1%.

The economists pulled data from USDA, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nielsen data at the supermarkets, and insights from the bigger team at Wells Fargo.

Broadly, the categories more dependent on packaging and general logistical resources show the highest increases comparing at-store prices this year to last year.

By category here are some key takeaways from their findings:

Chips are only up 1%.

“We’re a great potato growing country, and so we have a good supply of potatoes this year. The chip manufacturers are very efficient at turning them into potato chips. And so even though they’ve had challenges with their packaging and their labor and their freight, they’ve kind of kept a lid on the potato chip and chip prices,” Swanson says.

Two popular dips, two different stories.

Guacamole is only up 1%.

“Avocados and guacamole have become really popular. Most people should know but maybe they don’t that most of our avocado is coming from Mexico and Peru. And we’ve seen a lot of expansion down there. They’ve found it profitable to grow avocados and turn them into guacamole,” he says. Salsa is up 6%.

“It wasn’t so much in the tomato and chilies, but it’s the packaging and labor and transportation that caught up with salsa prices,” Swanson says.

Go for bulk packaged vegetables

Swanson shares as a category you can evaluate vegetables as either bulk goods or the pre-package convenience options. He shares to save a bit on the inflationary costs, go with bulk carrots and celery and wash and chop them yourself so you are only exposed to 2 to 3% higher prices. He says the packaged salads and other such products are seeing higher cost increases.

Proteins are more expensive—some showing double digit higher prices

“We’ve seen almost every protein jump up,” Swanson says. “This is where we’re starting to see some double digit, you know, between 15 and 25% type increases depending on what protein and cut you’re talking about. So far pork has really been the bargain, in terms of increases. You can still find some really good values in the pork category,” he says.

And popularity has propelled one poultry product very high.

Wells Fargo economists quote USDA data showing prepared chicken wings are up 14% to 26% (bone-in and boneless respectively). The IQF (individually quick frozen) chickens are up 26%. So IQF wings are $3.57 per pound, and $7.24 per pound is the average for prepared wings.

Double dip on cheese, perhaps

“The American dairy complex and American dairy producers have really stepped up,” Swanson says. “We’re actually seeing about a 7% decline as a cheddar cheese from a year ago. Dairy is a category where it’s actually helping control the budget, without any runaway inflation.”

Some beverage categories quench your thirst with less inflation

(Farm Journal)

Swanson’s team evaluated the costs of soft drinks, beer and wine. The report shows how packaging and logistics have swelled soft drink prices by 14%. However, market dynamics have kept beer and wine inflation more in check. He says beer prices have only increased 4%--mostly due to diversification in the market with more craft breweries in production. Wine prices are up only 3% thanks to a global market supply of products from Australia, Chile, South Africa and Europe.

Tuesday is National Cheeseburger Day!

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:08:48 GMT

Americans eat nearly 50 billion burgers a year—that’s about 3 burgers a week for each person in the U.S. And while May 28th is National Burger Day, we can’t help but add a slice of cheese to celebrate all over again!

Building the Best Burger

Burgers make up 20% of our in-home meals and about 70% of those burgers end up as cheeseburgers.

While most consumers probably stay traditional with their condiments like ketchup and mustard, new toppings seem to be appearing on the bun too. (Yes, avocado and mushrooms—we’re looking at you!)

What’s the best cheese to melt on a burger? Most people, according to National Today is American with 66% of their survey response. Cheddar was a close second with 65%.

Source: National Today

Is cheddar more your style? Look to the West, where 67% of folks prefer it on their burgers.

What’s your top burger accessory? Take our poll!

What's Your Favorite Cheeseburger Topping? Sept. 18 is National Cheeseburger Day!
— @DroversCTN (@DroversCTN) September 17, 2018

A burger connoisseur will also want to check out these tips from the beef checkoff at BeefItsWhatsForDinner.com . Some of their five most-searched-for cheeseburger recipes are:

Fake Meat: A Threat To The Beef Industry?

Protein’s Disruptors Threaten Traditional Red Meat, Poultry Industries

Where Do You Grab Your Burger From?

Not looking to slave over the grill tonight? Check out this list of freebies and deals for Sept. 18, 2018, compiled by Offers.com . Participation may vary by franchise and location.

Back Yard Burgers: Get a free burger when you join the Clubhouse loyalty program.

Black Angus Steakhouse: On Sept. 18, get the Steakhouse Bacon Cheeseburger or the Guacamole Burger (back for the day only) with fries or coleslaw and a 16-ounce draft beer for the discounted price of $10.99 at most locations ($12.99 in Hawaii and $9.99 in Alaska with no beer). This deal is available only in the bar. See details .

Burger 21: On Sept. 18 only, the chain will serve the limited-edition Super Cheesy burger, which features extra cheese, at participating locations.

BurgerFi: Get the BurgerFi cheeseburger for $1 on Sept. 18.

Fuddruckers: On Sept. 18, try the 3-Pound Burger Challenge. Finish your 3-pound burger and 1 pound of fries in an hour, and you will get a $25 gift card. Reservations and 24-notice required. See details .

Plus, Monday through Thursday all day (and Friday until 4 p.m.), get the FUDD$ Value Meal . For cheeseburgers, that means a quarter-pound cheeseburger, fries and a 20-oz. drink for $8. At participating locations only.

Johnny Rockets: Get a free burger with purchase when you sign up for the Rocket E-Club.

Mooyah: For a limited time, the Oktoberfest burger is back. It features Certified Angus beef, melted Swiss cheese, bacon, grilled onion, fresh kraut and French’s mustard on a potato bun.

Red Robin: The Gourmet Cheeseburger with Bottomless Steak Fries is just $5 on Sept. 18. Beverage purchase required. See details .

Ruby Tuesday: Join the So Connected rewards program, and get a free burger (up to $10 value) on Sept. 18 and 19 with the purchase of an entree. One per member.

Sonic: Every Tuesday (National Cheeseburger Day happens to fall on a Tuesday), get half price cheeseburgers 5 p.m. to close. Plus, the Carhop Classic deal is back at Sonic. Get a Quarter Point Double Cheeseburger plus medium tater tots for $2.99 all day.

Wayback Burger: Download the new Wayback App by Monday Sept. 17 and get rewarded with a buy-one-get-one-free special on the Cheeeesy Burger on Sept. 18.

Wendy’s: For the entire month of September, get a free Dave’s Single cheeseburger” with any purchase. This offer is available only to those who have the Wendy’s app.

White Castle: Through September, get six Bacon Cheese Sliders for $6.99 . These normally cost $1.43 each. Plus, use this printable coupon on Sept. 18 to get a free Cheese Slider with any purchase at participating locations.