Economists Forecast Hog Prices Following December USDA Quarterly Report
Three economists shared their forecasted prices for the year ahead in the Dec. 23 announcement of the Dec. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.
Using the Carcass Price National Weighted Average, David Miller, an economist with Decision Innovation Solutions, quoted:
• first quarter of 2022 at $83-86
• second quarter of 2022 at $88-92
• third quarter of 2022 at $88-92
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $78-84
Ron Plain, University of Missouri Extension emeritus, used the Iowa-Minnesota Based Carcass Price Negotiated Sales to quote his prices. He forecast:
• first quarter of 2022 at $69
• second quarter of 2022 at $82
• third quarter of 2022 at $83
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $68
Bob Brown, an independent analyst, said he used the CME equivalent carcass basis. He forecast:
• first quarter of 2022 at $82.50
• second quarter of 2022 at $91
• third quarter of 2022 at $87.50
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $73
Despite a decline in West Pacific pork exports, Brown said an increase in exports to the Americas is really hopeful and helpful. Still, he said the decline in China has not been offset and probably won't be in the coming year.
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