Markets

Record Pace: Mexico Market Drives Strong Q1 for U.S. Pork

Fri, 08 May 2026 12:45:50 GMT

March pork exports were among the largest on record, capping a powerhouse first quarter.

According to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), pork exports totaled 285,567 metric tons (mt) in March, up 6% from a year ago, the largest in five years and the third largest on record. Export value increased 4% to $803.2 million, the second highest on record, trailing only April 2021.

March exports increased year-over-year to leading market Mexico, as well as to Japan, Central America, the Dominican Republic, the Philippines and Taiwan. Shipments were steady to South Korea and Canada. USMEF says March was an outstanding month for export value per head slaughtered, which was the third highest on record at $72.93.

Through the first quarter, pork exports were 3% above last year’s pace in both volume (778,939 mt) and value ($2.17 billion). Exports are on a record pace to Mexico and Central America.

“The sustained momentum for U.S. pork exports is impressive in the Western Hemisphere, but it is also encouraging to see demand climbing in key Asian markets, led by a welcome rebound in Japan,” USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom says in a release.

What This Means for Pork Producers

March pork export value equated to $72.93 per head slaughtered, down slightly from a year ago but the third highest on record, USMEF reports. The first-quarter average was $67.41 per head, up 2% year-over-year. Exports accounted for 33.1% of total March pork production and 28.8% for muscle cuts, roughly steady with the robust ratios posted in March 2025. First-quarter ratios were 30.7% and 26.8%, respectively – each up slightly from a year ago.

Monster First Quarter for Pork

March pork exports to leading market Mexico reached 103,808 mt, up 7% from a year ago, while export value also climbed 7% to $228.6 million, USMEF reports. This pushed first-quarter exports to 309,137 mt, up 5% from last year’s record pace, valued at $688.1 million (up 8%).

“Mexico is a critical market for U.S. pork, especially bone-in hams and variety meat, and preserving market access is essential,” USMEF says. “This makes the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement a top industry priority, as well as Mexico’s antidumping investigation on U.S. hams and pork shoulders .”

Steady exports to Honduras and growing demand in Costa Rica and El Salvador caused March pork exports to Central America to reach 17,495 mt, up 6% year-over-year, valued at $58.1 million (up 12%). First-quarter exports to the region increased 7% from a year ago to 48,920 mt, while value climbed 12% to $158.7 million.

“After a slight volume decline in 2025, pork shipments to the Dominican Republic have raced to a rapid start this year,” USMEF says. “March exports soared 50% above last year, setting a value record of $35.8 million, while volume was the second largest on record at 12,478 mt. January-March exports totaled 29,984 mt, up 31% from a year ago, valued at $87.4 million (up 29%).”

Although pork exports to Japan declined last year, they have rebounded in 2026. March exports totaled 35,448 mt, up 18% from a year ago and the highest since 2021, while value increased 13% to $134.3 million, USMEF reports. First-quarter exports climbed 20% to 90,776 mt, valued at $345.8 million (up 13%).

Other first-quarter export results for U.S. pork include:

KOREA
March pork exports to Korea were essentially steady with last year, declining 1% in volume (23,563 mt) but increasing slightly in value ($77.8 million). First-quarter exports to Korea increased 2% to 59,108 mt, valued at $196.3 million (up 5%).
ASEAN
Fueled by strong growth in the Philippines (where exports were the largest in eight months at 7,215 mt) and record-large shipments to Indonesia (440 mt), March pork exports to the ASEAN region reached 8,239 mt, up 41% from a year ago, valued at $18.8 million (up 32%). Through March, exports to the region increased 19% to 18,042 mt, while value was up 16% to $42.4 million. In addition to the Philippines and Indonesia, shipments also increased to Malaysia.
TAIWAN
U.S. pork has faced numerous obstacles in Taiwan in recent years, but is regaining some traction in 2026. First-quarter exports more than doubled from a year ago in volume (3,585 mt, up 115% and the largest since 2019, while value increased 87% to $8.5 million.
CHINA
In China, where U.S. pork is subject to retaliatory duties and domestic supplies have surged, first-quarter exports declined 9% from a year ago to 104,779 mt, while value fell 20% to $222.9 million. China remains the largest destination for pork variety meat exports, which account for more than 70% of total shipments to China.

Farrow-to-Finish Margins Hold Firm at $57.97

Wed, 06 May 2026 14:35:42 GMT

Sterling estimated farrow-to-finish margins last week $57.97/head and the same as the previous week. The W. Cornbelt lean carcass value averaged $92.55/cwt. for the week against $92.13/cwt. the prior week with the breakeven for finished hogs averaging $65.83/cwt. compared to $65.42/cwt. the prior week.

Last week’s Sterling estimated packer margins averaged $1.01/head compared to $4.54/head the previous week. Capacity utilization for market hogs averaged 92.4%.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending May 2.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $57.22, Down $7.05 From Last Week

Mon, 04 May 2026 14:26:24 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on May 1 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using December 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $57.22, down $7.05 for the week. Feed costs were up $1.70 per head, and December futures decreased $9.43 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is improved from last week by $6.88 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $83.33.

Figure 1 - Weaner Pig Breakeven on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 76,315 head being reported which is 103% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $77.91, up $1.68 from a week ago. The low to high range was $62 to $88. Cash prices were 90.13% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $0.85 this week at $63.46.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 24,275 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $112.91, down $4.11 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 1 - Seasonal Trends on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

Graph 2 - Seasonal trends on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through May 1.

Graph 3 - Cash Price Differences on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $8.73 this week to a projected loss of $20.69 per head.

Graph 4 - Profit Opportunity on May 1, 2026

(NutriQuest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Smithfield Foods Beats Quarterly Estimates on Steady Packaged Meats Demand

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 19:46:29 GMT

Smithfield Foods beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter sales and profit on Tuesday and stuck to its annual forecasts, helped by steady demand for packaged meat products such as bacon, ham, sausages and hot dogs.

U.S. meat demand has held up in recent months as consumers look to cut food bills and cook more meals at home.

The company has relied on its broad portfolio, including premium brands and private-label packaged meats, to retain budget-conscious shoppers trading down, while growth in higher-margin, value‑added packaged meats has helped support profits.

Private-label products accounted for roughly 40% of Smithfield’s retail sales in the last fiscal year, its executives said in March.

Beef costs have remained elevated due to tight cattle supplies, prompting companies such as Smithfield Foods to raise prices to protect margins.

Sales in Smithfield’s packaged meats segment rose 6.2% during the quarter from last year, offsetting a 1.1% slip in the fresh pork business.

The largest U.S. pork processor, which makes packaged meats and fresh pork products for retail and foodservice customers, maintained its annual forecasts as consumer-facing companies remain wary of renewed inflation concerns linked to higher energy prices.

“We are actively managing inflationary input costs and consumer spending trends,” CEO Shane Smith said.

It expects fiscal 2026 sales to grow in the low-single-digits range from fiscal year 2025 and adjusted operating profit between $1.33 billion and $1.48 billion.

The company has been able to lower feed costs and scale down hog production, which have also helped cushion the impact of cautious consumer spending.

For the three months ended March 29, Smithfield logged sales of $3.80 billion, beating analysts’ average estimates of $3.70 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

It earned 64 cents per share on an adjusted basis, above estimates of 59 cents.

(Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)

Hog Market Outlook: Why Dave Delaney Sees a Summer Rally and Undervalued Futures

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:51:30 GMT

Is the hog market tighter than the data suggest? Ever.Ag’s Dave Delaney joined AgriTalk to break down why disease outbreaks are curbing supply despite record-setting productivity in healthy herds. From “red hot” feeder pig prices to a predicted summer rally, Delaney explains why the October board may be significantly undervalued and why he is looking as far ahead as 2027 to lock in “huge” profit margins.

Slaughter Trends and Supply

Although USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs report expected a 2% increase in supply in 2026, year-to-date slaughter is only up 0.5% (when adjusted for slaughter days). However, Delaney expects higher slaughter numbers over the next few weeks.

“I think the next three to four weeks, we’re likely going to slaughter more than we did a year ago,” he says. “Part of that is some lagging finish hogs that were health challenged, and the growing weather here the last month has been extremely good. I think we’re pulling ahead some.”

The “Health Narrative” Tightens Supply

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) continue to cause significant litter losses and death loss in some systems.

“With PRRS, we don’t know what to expect. But with PED, you get that in the sow farm, and that’s a period of loss of litters and loss of pigs,” Delaney says. “When you combine those two, and some of the variation of strains and the strength of these strains, it’s gotten pretty bad.”

The supply tightness is reflected in “red-hot” prices, Flory points out. With 40-lb. feeder pigs hitting $125, and wean pigs trading roughly $31.50 higher than this time last year, Delaney agrees the health situation has tightened things up.

Productivity vs. Disease

The market is currently sending conflicting signals: high death loss in some barns versus a USDA report showing record pigs saved per litter. Delaney says both are true.

Delaney says there is definitely a “balancing act” occurring between record-high pigs saved per litter in healthy systems and the significant losses in health-challenged systems.

“The genetics we have in place continue to get better, and we see our production numbers continue to climb forward,” he explains. “Those systems not affected by health issues are pushing out numbers of pigs the last three weeks. It’s a balancing act. Does the bad overtake the good or the good overtake the bad? That’s something we face within this industry every day.”

Summer Rally Ahead?

Delaney is optimistic about summer prices, predicting a rally that could last through September. He specifically points to the October lean hog futures as being “way undervalued.”

“I think we’re going to have the ability to put in some solid hedges with triple digits in October, and that probably comes on the heels of when we get extremely short July to August,” Delaney says.

He says the current market structure where June settles below July and August trades at a premium to July is a pattern he expects to repeat.

What Delaney Watches in the Hog Market

Hog weights have been a little “erratic,” but he expects them to show the typical seasonal decline as summer heat approaches.

“The growing conditions and healthy herds have helped us,” Delaney says. “Growers open barns up and say, ‘Oh my goodness, these things average 308? I didn’t expect that.’”

He is keeping a close eye on kill levels now, watching the aggressiveness or lack of aggressiveness of packers.

“We’ve got a few packers that are out searching here every day,” Delaney says. “When multiple packers call on a Monday wanting pigs for Friday, rather than a week ahead, that’s going to be our first sign this thing’s tightening up.”

And on the backside of that, he’s paying attention to the cutout and the demand factor.

“Right now our demand is good, but it just feels steady right now,” he says.

Risk Management Strategy

Will the grilling season help? Flory says if American consumers get even more beef hungry than they already are, the beef market is going to be “on fire.”

Delaney remains cautious about locking in prices too early. He is waiting for a seasonal rise in fundamentals to re-establish hedges at higher levels.

“We had the opportunity once to put in some summer hedges at pretty good levels that were same or above year ago,” he says. “We’re looking at pulling hedges off and reestablishing it at higher prices. My thought process here short term is flat and steadyish, maybe a seasonal little incremental rise in the fundamentals.”

Delaney is looking as far out as the summer of 2027, noting that the projected margins available for producers are “huge.”

Pork Profitability Holds Steady: Farrow-to-Finish Margins Near $58

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:37:32 GMT

Sterling estimated margins across the pork industry remain nearly unchanged from the prior week. Farrow-to-finish did show about a $2/head improvement from the prior week to average $57.97/head compared to $55.68/head the prior week.

The Lean Carcass Value averaged $92.13/cwt for the week. Sterling’s estimated packer margin for the week was $4.54/head against $3.24/head a week earlier. Plant capacity utilization averaged 92.9% according to the Sterling estimate. Market hog slaughter hovering at 2.4 to 2.5 million for the past year, this has held utilization in the low-to-mid 90% range.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending April 25.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $64.27, Up $3.23 From Last Week

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 18:55:14 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and break-even pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 24 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $64.27, up $3.23 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.29 per head, and October futures increased $1.68 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is unchanged from last week.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in break-even considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $90.38.

(Nutriquest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 89,100 head being reported which is 121% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $76.23, down $2.08 from a week ago. The low to high range was $67 to $90. Cash prices were 84.41% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were down $3.93 this week at $62.61.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 29,040 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $117.02, down $3.29 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 24.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $5.31 this week to a projected loss of $11.96 per head.

(Nutriquest
)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Pork Market Analysis: Lean Carcass Values Rise While Cutout Remains Steady

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 14:28:40 GMT

While Sterling’s estimate of packer margins averaged $3.11/head last week against $5.51/head the previous week, farrow-to-finish margins averaged $55.42/head and about $2/cwt. higher than the prior week.

The Lean Carcass Value averaged $91.38/cwt. last week compared to $90.49/cwt. a week earlier while the breakeven for finished market hogs hovers near $66/cwt., break-evens for hogs placed on the finishing floor last week was estimated by Sterling Marketing at $68/cwt.

The Pork Cutout value last week averaged $97.75/cwt. and little changed from the previous week’s average of $97.97/cwt.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending April 18.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $61.04, Down $10.06 From Last Week

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:29:45 GMT

NutriQuest Business Solutions publishes weekly weaner pig profitability calculations which uses industry representative production costs and futures pricing for lean hogs, corn, and soybean meal, using historical basis assumptions, to establish approximate profitability and breakeven pricing for the current sale or purchase of weaner pigs. Prices are based on closing futures prices on April 17 and assumes CME Lean Hog Index cost and historical basis assumptions.

When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in October 2026 using October 2026 futures, the weaner breakeven was $61.04, down $10.06 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.91 per head, and October futures decreased $1.70 compared to last week’s futures, while historical basis is declined from last week by $2.66 per cwt.

The “weaner pig breakeven” is an all-in breakeven considering fixed costs (e.g., housing and labor) that would be incurred by the buyer. However, many buyers of weaners have empty space and therefore will incur these fixed costs whether the buildings are stocked with weaners. For those producers with empty space, the maximum price a buyer could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven is the “margin over variable costs,” which is $87.15.

(Nutriquest)

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 82,860 head being reported which is 113% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $78.31, down $2.68 from a week ago. The low to high range was $67 to $92. Cash prices were 86.70% of average 6-month Lean Hog Futures for the week.

Formula-priced weaners were up $3.18 this week at $66.54.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 22,950 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $120.31, down $6.25 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 2 shows the seasonal trends of cash weaner pig market as percentage of 6-month Lean Hog Futures.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 3 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 17, 2026.

(Nutriquest)

Graph 4 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $7.38 this week to a projected loss of $17.27 per head.

(Nutriquest)

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.

Farrow-to-Finish Margins Hold Steady at $53 Per Head

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:19:48 GMT

Compared to the prior week, there was little change in the pork industry margin situation last week. Farrow-to-finish margins were $53.09/head against $51.84/head the previous week with the Lean Carcass Value averaging $90.49 compared to $90.43/cwt. the previous week.

Packer margins averaged $5.51/head last week with an average Pork Cutout of $90.49/cwt., about unchanged from $90.43/cwt. the previous week.

View the full Sterling Pork Profit Tracker for the week ending April 11.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Markets

Record Pace: Mexico Market Drives Strong Q1 for U.S. Pork

What This Means for Pork Producers

Monster First Quarter for Pork

KOREA

ASEAN

TAIWAN

CHINA

Farrow-to-Finish Margins Hold Firm at $57.97

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $57.22, Down $7.05 From Last Week

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Smithfield Foods Beats Quarterly Estimates on Steady Packaged Meats Demand

Hog Market Outlook: Why Dave Delaney Sees a Summer Rally and Undervalued Futures

Slaughter Trends and Supply

The “Health Narrative” Tightens Supply

Productivity vs. Disease

Summer Rally Ahead?

What Delaney Watches in the Hog Market

Risk Management Strategy

Pork Profitability Holds Steady: Farrow-to-Finish Margins Near $58

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $64.27, Up $3.23 From Last Week

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Pork Market Analysis: Lean Carcass Values Rise While Cutout Remains Steady

Weaner Pig Breakeven at $61.04, Down $10.06 From Last Week

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Farrow-to-Finish Margins Hold Steady at $53 Per Head