Weekly Weaner Breakeven Projections Plunge $21.75 to $37.52

October futures decreased $7.85 compared to last week’s August futures used for the crush and historical basis is declined from last week by $2.47 per cwt. ( National Pork Board )

This market update is a PorkBusiness.com weekly column reporting trends in weaner pigs.  All information contained in this update is for the week ended Feb. 15, 2019.

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Looking at hog sales in August 2019 using October 2019 futures the weaner breakeven was $37.52, down $21.75 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.45 per head. October futures decreased $7.85 compared to last week’s August futures used for the crush and historical basis is declined from last week by $2.47 per cwt. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on February 15, 2019. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 55,825 head being reported which is 148 percent of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $55.15, down $1.38 from a week ago. The low to high range was $45.00 -  $61.00. Formula priced weaners were down $1.18 this week at $45.15.

Cash traded feeder pig reported volume was above average with 11,775 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $69.58, up $0.55 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

graph 1

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through February 15, 2019.

graph 2

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential decreased $20.37 this week to a projected loss of $17.63 per head.

graph 3

 

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest.  NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. At NutriQuest our success comes from helping producers realize improved profitability and sustainability through innovation driven by a relentless focus on helping producers succeed. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email [email protected].


Related Articles: 

Feb. 8, 2019: Cash Feeder Pig Prices Average $69.03, Down $1.08 Last Week

Feb. 1, 2019: Cash Weaner Pig Prices Average $56.79, Down $4.17 Last Week

 
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