WASDE: Soybean production down slightly

U.S. soybean production is projected at 3,929 million bushels, down slightly from last month due to a revision to South Carolina production. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 460 million bushels, up 10 million from last month due to a lower crush. Soybean trade projections are unchanged.

Crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1,870 million reflecting a lower projection for soybean meal domestic disappearance.

Soybean meal imports are raised slightly, partly offsetting lower meal production. Despite a lower crush, soybean oil ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected up 120 million pounds from last month to 2,185 million as higher beginning stocks and a lower export forecast more than offset lower production. Higher beginning stocks reflect a revision to soybean oil stocks for 2014/15 as reported in the March 1 Oilseed Crushings 2015 Summary report.

Soybean and soybean meal prices are reduced this month and the projected ranges are narrowed. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is projected at $8.25 to $9.25 per bushel, down 5 cents at the midpoint. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $300 per short ton, down $5 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 28.5 to 31.5 cents pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 526.9 million tons, down fractionally from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 320.2 million tons, down slightly from last month. Other oilseed production changes include reduced rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production for India, lower palm kernel production for Malaysia, and lower cottonseed production for India and Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 149.3 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly reflecting increased soybean exports for Brazil. The soybean import forecast for China is raised reflecting strong imports to date. Partially offsetting are reduced imports for the EU, Pakistan, and Mexico, where more imports of soybean meal are expected. Global oilseed crush is projected higher reflecting larger soybean crush in Argentina and China. The forecasts for peanut crush in India and rapeseed crush in the EU are also projected higher.

Reduced forecasts for cottonseed crush in India, Pakistan, and the United States are partly offsetting.

Argentina soybean meal exports are raised with a larger crush forecast. Soybean meal imports are increased for the EU, Pakistan, Mexico, and South Korea. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 89.5 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month, mostly due to lower soybean ending stock projections for Argentina and Brazil. Global vegetable oil production is nearly unchanged this month as higher soybean oil and peanut oil production more than offset lower palm oil production in Malaysia. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected at 16.5 million tons, down marginally from last month.