As farmers debated the accuracy of planted acres and crop conditions in yesterday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report, livestock producers anxiously watched for changes in the 2019 red meat and poultry production forecast. Little impact came however.
The WASDE report raised the 2019 red meat and poultry production forecast from last month as higher forecast pork and broiler production more than offsets lower beef and turkey production forecasts.
The beef production forecast is reduced primarily on lighter carcass weights and slightly lower third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. USDA will release its Cattle Report on July 19th, providing a mid-year estimate of U.S. cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef cow replacement.
Click here to read Drovers’ latest coverage of the cattle markets.
Forecast pork production is raised from last month on higher-than-expected second-quarter commercial hog slaughter. In addition, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on June 27th, indicated a first-half pig crop 4% above 2018 which supported a higher second-half production forecast. Second-quarter broiler production is raised on slaughter data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Turkey production is lowered slightly on second-quarter production data.
Click here to see Farm Journal’s PORK coverage of the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
For 2020, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher forecast pork production. Although producers indicated intentions to farrow about the same number of sows in the second half of 2019, growth in pigs per litter will help support higher numbers of pigs for slaughter in 2020. Beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2019, but the export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data. The 2020 beef trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. The pork export forecast for 2019 is lowered on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. The 2019 broiler export forecast is raised on recent trade data and stronger expected global demand in the second half of the year, while the turkey export forecast is little changed. No change is made to the 2020 broiler and turkey export forecasts.
Cattle price forecasts for 2019 are lowered from last month, reflecting current prices. For 2020, forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Hog price forecasts are lowered on recent prices and pressure from increased pork production in late 2019. Hog prices for 2020 are reduced slightly on increased supply pressure. Broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2019 on current price weakness and continued slow demand. No changes are made to 2020 broiler price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are raised for 2019 and 2020.
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