The National Weather Service'sClimate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for May through July calls for above-normal temps across the Northern Plains and Corn Belt, as well as the East and West Coasts. The forecast calls for equal chances of normal, below- or above-normal temps across the Central and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, above-normal precip is expected across the southern half of the country, while below-normal precip is expected in Wisconsin and Michigan. Equal chances of normal, below- or above-normal precip are expected across the Northern Plains and Midwest.
CPC says there are indicators of a potential rapid transition to La Nina during 2016. "As the current El Nino event weakens, some challenges moving forward include how quickly any related El Nino impacts dissipate as we move toward ENSO-neutral conditions and when a potential transition to a La Nina event may occur," it states.
"Although El Nino continues to weaken, impacts associated with El Nino were considered early in the outlook period with decreased influence as compared to earlier in the spring," says the CPC regarding the extended outlook. "Soil moisture conditions were also considered in early outlooks where some regions currently have substantial departures from normal. Prospects for a transition to La Nina conditions were considered primarily beginning in ASO (August-October) and throughout the autum and winter months at the current time."