Soybean Meal Has Potential to Move Higher

ASF in the Market and Grains
Soybeans in hand ( MGN Image )

Soybean meal is making moves to the upside with futures at the CME Group now at or above the $300 per ton mark. 

Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge recently told AgDay's Clinton Griffiths that while soybeans struggle to find stability, meal may be a different story.

"Obviously, with ASF over in China and Southeast Asia, that could potentially be creating more demand for our pork," says Seifried.  "If we start doing business with China on a regular basis again, I think there's a wonderful opportunity for our pork producers and for pork exports."

Seifried says that will mean feeding more hogs and shipping fewer soybeans.

"If you look at export sales last week, it was really bad," says Seifried. "Nothing [was] good except for meal which saw a halfway decent number and I think that is going to continue."

Seifried says while we'll be feeding plenty of meal at home, other countries will be looking to feed their hog herds as well.

"Other countries that are looking to fill the pork demands that China has, they need meal," says Seifried. "We are not the biggest crusher, but we are a big crusher and I think we should be in store for some good exports."

In it's May WASDE report, USDA put the U.S. soybean crush for 2019-2020 at 2.115 billion bushels. That's up from the 2018-2019 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports.

Seifried thinks the U.S. should up its crush capacity, but with really good crush margins, he understands why that may not happen. 

"I think meal is going to really be the star of the soybean complex for the next year," says Seifried. "I think our export opportunities are going to be really good."