Economists Forecast Hog Prices

Agricultural economists shared their forecast prices for the next several quarters following the Sept. 27 announcement of the September 2018 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.

Len Steiner, president of Steiner Consulting Group in Merrimack, N.H., believes the Iowa-southern Minnesota hog price for end of the year will be about $56/cwt, down about 4.5% from a year ago. The price will come in a little higher at over $66/cwt from January to March, up about 3.6% from a year ago. He predicts $73/cwt from April to June, up 12.8% from a year ago. For July to September, he forecast $72/cwt, up 31.8% because of the big decline in prices in August 2018. He expects the annual average for the year to be up 10.4% for the year.

David Miller, director of research and commodity services at Iowa Farm Bureau in West Des Moines, Iowa, says he’s looking at USDA 49-51% carcass price coming in right around the mid-$53 to $55/cwt for fourth quarter of 2018. For 2019, he predicts the first quarter to come in at $54 to $57/cwt, the second quarter to be higher at $60 to $64/cwt, the third quarter at $60 to $66/cwt, and the fourth quarter to end around $54 to $60/cwt.

Scott Brown, associate Extension professor at the University of Missouri in Columbia, Mo., predicts national weighted average carcass to end around $50/cwt for fourth quarter. For 2019, he forecasts Quarter 1 at $58/cwt, Quarter 2 at $61/cwt, Quarter 3 at $58/cwt.