Corn Carryout Provides Optimism, Soybeans Pessimism

Grain bin site
( Brock )

Today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports, paint two totally different pictures for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. USDA pegged yield estimates 178.4 bu. per acre on corn, a 1.8 bu. increase from 2017, and 51.6 bu. per acre on soybeans, a 2.5 bu. increase from last year.

“When you look at soybean number’s they’re especially troubling,” says Joe Vaclavic, of Standard Grain and AgWeb blogger. “2018/19 carryout is pegged at a whopping 785 million bu. I believe that’s the largest on record if realized.”

According to today’s projections, soybean stock to use rate is at 18.5%, which is the highest in recent memory, according to Vaclavic.

Corn, however, provides room for optimism. 

“Corn carryout for 2018/18 is pegged at 1.684 billion, up just a little from last month’s projection,” he says. 

It’s similar on a global scale—just a slight move upward of a couple million metric tons.

“Keep in mind that ending stocks and stocks to use domestically and globally are going to tighten up quite a bit year over year,” Vaclavic says. “So corn balance sheet isn’t near as bad.”