Are U.S. corn, soybean farmers "playing poker with the Chinese"?

On the heels of the October USDA crop production report, many farmers are wondering what to do with the predicted 51.4 bushels per acre soybeans and 173.4 bushels per acre corn. Compared to the September forecast, corn acres dropped a bushel and soybeans increased 0.8 bushel.

Some believe the soybean yield will be pushed higher. On U.S. Farm Report, Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing told host Tyne Morgan he's heard from farmers across the country and very few farmers are pulling yields below 50 bpa. More often than not, farmers have between 65 to 75 bpa, some have yields in the 80s, and there's even a few reporting 90 bpa.

"When all is said and done, the bean number will be higher," said Gold.

On the other hand, it's more difficult to tell when it comes to corn.

"Basically they're playing poker with the Chinese again," said Kevin Duling of KD Investors. "Do they really have half the world's corn, and if they do, is it worth anything? It comes down to, 'Are we going to move it?'"

If these massive crop predictions come to fruition, many farmers are concerned if there will be a strong demand for both corn and soybeans.

Gold advised farmers to take advantage of funds to cover corn and beans until there's a selling opportunity. According to Gold, fundamentals have remained unchanged , only the technical side of the market has changed.


Duling and Gold discuss wheat, when corn and wheat will see a bottom, and how the strong dollar will play in exports above.