- Corn production could fall to 13.36 billion bu.
- Soybean total production might fall to 3.658 billion bu.
- Early frost, and even 'on time' frost, could threaten yields and quality further.
AccuWeather’s latest 2019 crop production analysis shows 2019 corn and soybeans will have reduced yield and quality when compared to recent years. The company pegs corn at 13.36 billion bu. of production, 2018 was 14.42 billion. The service predicts soybeans will come in at 3.658 billion bu., compared to 4.543 billion bu. in 2018.
In 2012, corn production fell to 10.76 billion bu. Soybeans fell to 3.357 billion bu. in 2013. This year corn and soybean yields will be at their lowest since these two standout years.
The low yields are due, in part, to a challenging planting season. An early frost, while unexpected, would be detrimental.
“Corn and soybeans are still about a week or two behind where they should be, which makes them vulnerable to a frost, even if it’s on time,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls in a recent news release. “And we think it’s a little-higher-than-usual probability that we’ll get that first frost on time.
“If we get that on-time freeze, there could be a little damage,” Nicholls added. “We think there will be scattered frost and not anything that would be a widespread problem, but it’s probably going to be a close call.”
In total, AccuWeather expects a 7.9% drop in soybean yield and 5.3% drop in corn yield when compared to 2018. This could, of course, change depending on weather conditions at harvest.
“The problem is getting the crop to the finish line,” AccuWeather’s Nicholls said. “It’s been a little warmer recently, and that’s been helpful. But it’s been cooler further north; it’s that area where they’re going to struggle to get to the finish line before the first frost. The states that are farthest behind in corn maturity are Michigan, Minnesota and North Dakota, and for soybeans it’s Missouri, Michigan and Indiana.”